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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Chicago St.

Conference:GWC
Expected RPI:335.1
Current RPI:325
Expected SOS:277
Current Record:2-20
Expected Record:4-25
Current Conf Record:1-4
Expected Conf Record:3-9
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-14
Current OOC Record:1-16
Expected OOC Record:1-17
Expected OOC RPI:324
Expected OOC SOS:175


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
10-2132.26%299.00.01%
9-2130.00%298.00.02%
9-2229.03%305.10.14%
8-2127.59%290.00.01%
8-2226.67%304.80.16%
8-2325.81%314.80.77%
7-2224.14%312.30.26%
7-2323.33%315.91.38%
7-2422.58%323.81.98%
6-2320.69%321.42.19%
6-2420.00%325.84.01%
6-2519.35%331.83.83%
5-2417.24%329.58.71%
5-2516.67%333.47.85%
5-2616.13%336.53.78%
4-2513.79%335.619.60%
4-2613.33%338.28.77%
4-2712.90%339.61.49%
3-2610.34%339.321.63%
3-2710.00%340.93.79%
2-276.90%341.49.61%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chicago St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Iowa (149.1)B10A96-53L0%0.0
11-13Creighton (24.5)MVCA95-61L0%0.0
11-19North Carolina A&T (269.1)MEACA87-70L0%0.0
11-21Campbell (155.0)BSthH69-75L0%0.0
11-25Southern Illinois (229.9)MVCA73-57L0%0.0
11-27Illinois (56.7)B10A90-43L0%0.0
11-30Illinois St. (109.7)MVCA85-41L0%0.0
12-3Toledo (273.3)MACH61-73L0%0.0
12-10DePaul (195.3)BEA102-95L0%0.0
12-14Wichita St. (15.9)MVCA94-44L0%0.0
12-17Loyola Chicago (312.6)HorzA64-49L0%0.0
12-21Oregon St. (108.9)P12H66-92L0%0.0
12-23Cincinnati (91.3)BEA95-60L0%0.0
12-31Ball St. (218.9)MACA86-58L0%0.0
1-6Air Force (181.8)MWCA68-54L0%0.0
1-10San Diego St. (30.4)MWCA73-65L0%0.0
1-19Texas Pan American (304.9)GWCH65-72L0%0.0
1-21Houston Baptist (311.7)GWCH98-95W100%0.0
1-26Utah Valley (206.6)GWCA65-56L0%0.0
1-28North Dakota (250.8)GWCA71-61L0%0.0
2-4NJ Inst of Technology (290.3)GWCH64-73L0%0.0
2-7IUPU Fort Wayne (271.7)SumH63-57W100%0.0
2-9North Dakota (250.8)GWCH0-027%-6.5
2-11Utah Valley (206.6)GWCH0-020%-9.0
2-16Houston Baptist (311.7)GWCA0-026%-7.1
2-18Texas Pan American (304.9)GWCA0-021%-8.6
2-29SIU Edwardsville (305.6)OVCH0-043%-2.0
3-3NJ Inst of Technology (290.3)GWCA0-021%-8.7