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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Central Florida

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:77.0
Current RPI:65
Expected SOS:103
Current Record:15-6
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:6-3
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:4.47%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:85
Expected OOC SOS:200


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
25-680.65%15.30.03%
24-777.42%19.80.36%
23-776.67%38.90.10%
22-775.86%52.50.11%
24-875.00%21.00.01%
23-874.19%26.91.87%
22-873.33%45.81.76%
21-872.41%61.81.79%
23-971.88%25.20.13%
22-970.97%37.13.45%
21-970.00%54.97.05%
20-968.97%72.37.89%
22-1068.75%37.71.14%
21-1067.74%49.95.22%
20-1066.67%67.911.45%
21-1165.62%51.31.86%
19-1065.52%86.013.41%
20-1164.52%66.54.52%
19-1163.33%85.310.41%
20-1262.50%63.80.98%
18-1162.07%102.510.79%
19-1261.29%81.12.49%
18-1260.00%100.95.37%
19-1359.38%76.10.14%
17-1258.62%118.24.46%
18-1358.06%95.70.40%
17-1356.67%111.61.42%
16-1355.17%132.91.10%
17-1454.84%104.40.05%
16-1453.33%126.50.11%
15-1451.72%150.50.12%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Florida St. (25.0)ACCA73-50L0%0.0
11-18High Point (279.0)BSthH84-72W100%0.0
11-24College of Charleston (122.2)SCN63-74W100%0.0
11-25Connecticut (36.1)BEN63-68W100%0.0
11-26Harvard (45.6)IvyN49-59L0%0.0
12-3Hartford (323.5)AEH67-48W100%0.0
12-10Bethune Cookman (257.8)MEACH53-51W100%0.0
12-13North Carolina A&T (269.1)MEACH77-65W100%0.0
12-17Old Dominion (124.0)CAAH61-53W100%0.0
12-21Louisiana Lafayette (158.5)SBA61-60L0%0.0
12-29Stetson (263.0)ASunH80-70W100%0.0
12-30Rhode Island (255.0)A10H65-54W100%0.0
1-4Tulane (171.0)CUSAH60-53W100%0.0
1-7East Carolina (158.6)CUSAA63-81W100%0.0
1-11Houston (235.4)CUSAH74-63W100%0.0
1-14Marshall (62.5)CUSAA65-64L0%0.0
1-18Memphis (33.8)CUSAH68-67W100%0.0
1-21UAB (146.2)CUSAA41-48W100%0.0
1-25Tulsa (106.2)CUSAA66-61L0%0.0
1-28Southern Mississippi (18.2)CUSAH65-78L0%0.0
2-4Southern Methodist (217.6)CUSAA52-59W100%0.0
2-8Marshall (62.5)CUSAH0-054%1.0
2-11Southern Mississippi (18.2)CUSAA0-024%-7.8
2-18East Carolina (158.6)CUSAH0-070%5.6
2-22Rice (180.2)CUSAA0-054%1.1
2-25Texas El Paso (180.1)CUSAH0-072%6.4
2-28Memphis (33.8)CUSAA0-016%-10.8
3-3UAB (146.2)CUSAH0-074%7.0