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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Central Arkansas

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:299.9
Current RPI:288
Expected SOS:309
Current Record:5-13
Expected Record:8-19
Current Conf Record:2-7
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.02%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-9
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:263
Expected OOC SOS:273


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
13-1546.43%226.00.01%
13-1644.83%209.00.02%
12-1544.44%241.90.16%
12-1642.86%241.00.15%
12-1741.38%231.40.12%
11-1640.74%258.41.43%
11-1739.29%256.10.52%
10-1638.46%275.00.21%
11-1837.93%253.70.12%
10-1737.04%274.05.67%
10-1835.71%272.41.02%
9-1734.62%287.93.55%
10-1934.48%267.60.16%
9-1833.33%286.914.17%
9-1932.14%283.50.54%
8-1830.77%299.018.09%
8-1929.63%296.710.66%
8-2028.57%297.50.02%
7-1926.92%309.127.57%
7-2025.93%305.90.37%
6-2023.08%319.712.72%
5-2119.23%329.32.71%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Stanford (85.8)P12A91-52L0%0.0
11-13Sacramento St. (305.3)BSkyA75-54L0%0.0
11-26Eastern Illinois (295.0)OVCH107-96W100%0.0
11-30Tennessee Martin (323.2)OVCA68-75W100%0.0
12-5Southeast Missouri St. (236.6)OVCH88-72W100%0.0
12-10Arkansas St. (229.8)SBA71-64L0%0.0
12-19Iowa (149.1)B10A105-64L0%0.0
12-21Drake (143.0)MVCA87-64L0%0.0
12-28Nevada Las Vegas (14.8)MWCA124-75L0%0.0
1-7Lamar (91.1)SlndA103-67L0%0.0
1-11Stephen F. Austin (246.7)SlndH56-67L0%0.0
1-14Northwestern St. (179.3)SlndA73-77W100%0.0
1-18Nicholls St. (315.0)SlndH99-76W100%0.0
1-21Lamar (91.1)SlndH78-92L0%0.0
1-25Southeastern Louisiana (326.4)SlndA75-71L0%0.0
1-29McNeese St. (207.5)SlndA87-76L0%0.0
2-1Northwestern St. (179.3)SlndH68-79L0%0.0
2-4Texas Arlington (85.3)SlndH61-69L0%0.0
2-8Texas St. (317.6)SlndA0-028%-6.4
2-11McNeese St. (207.5)SlndH0-039%-3.1
2-15Sam Houston St. (285.0)SlndA0-026%-7.0
2-18Louisiana Tech (205.7)WACA0-014%-11.6
2-22Nicholls St. (315.0)SlndA0-054%1.2
2-25Southeastern Louisiana (326.4)SlndH0-065%4.2
2-29Texas San Antonio (159.9)SlndH0-016%-10.7
3-3Texas A&M Corpus Chris (316.1)SlndA0-031%-5.3