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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Cal St. Northridge

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:307.7
Current RPI:303
Expected SOS:292
Current Record:4-15
Expected Record:6-21
Current Conf Record:2-8
Expected Conf Record:4-13
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.05%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-9
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:294
Expected OOC SOS:292


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
11-1837.93%236.50.02%
10-1737.04%269.30.07%
10-1835.71%261.80.06%
10-1934.48%258.50.06%
9-1833.33%279.71.01%
9-1932.14%276.50.32%
9-2031.03%276.60.05%
8-1929.63%288.75.27%
8-2028.57%286.60.63%
8-2127.59%286.90.20%
7-2025.93%297.818.25%
7-2125.00%296.50.58%
7-2224.14%294.70.09%
6-2023.08%308.90.26%
6-2122.22%306.333.04%
6-2221.43%305.70.66%
6-2320.69%301.00.01%
5-2119.23%319.11.41%
5-2218.52%315.427.79%
5-2317.86%315.80.12%
4-2215.38%326.92.79%
4-2314.81%324.07.30%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Northridge.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Southern California (237.1)P12A66-59L0%0.0
11-14Hawaii (185.9)WACA86-67L0%0.0
11-19Boise St. (185.1)MWCA103-61L0%0.0
11-26Drake (143.0)MVCA73-49L0%0.0
11-30Cal St. Bakersfield (215.3)indH67-74L0%0.0
12-3Santa Clara (275.1)WCCA71-58L0%0.0
12-10Pepperdine (252.4)WCCA70-73W100%0.0
12-22Washington (71.3)P12A74-51L0%0.0
12-29UC Irvine (259.2)BWH62-71L0%0.0
1-2UC Riverside (257.2)BWA52-63W100%0.0
1-7Long Beach St. (33.6)BWH68-81L0%0.0
1-12Pacific (263.1)BWH59-79L0%0.0
1-14UC Davis (342.3)BWH84-80W100%0.0
1-19UC Santa Barbara (137.9)BWA69-61L0%0.0
1-21Cal Poly (182.0)BWA100-54L0%0.0
1-26Cal St. Fullerton (159.2)BWH68-70L0%0.0
1-28Cal St. Bakersfield (215.3)indA68-76W100%0.0
2-2UC Santa Barbara (137.9)BWH70-85L0%0.0
2-4Long Beach St. (33.6)BWA75-67L0%0.0
2-9UC Davis (342.3)BWA0-049%-0.2
2-11Pacific (263.1)BWA0-019%-9.4
2-15Cal Poly (182.0)BWH0-016%-10.6
2-18Fresno St. (181.1)WACH0-021%-8.6
2-22UC Riverside (257.2)BWH0-049%-0.2
2-25UC Irvine (259.2)BWA0-020%-9.3
2-29Cal St. Fullerton (159.2)BWA0-08%-15.1