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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.

Cal Poly

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:219.0
Current RPI:219
Expected SOS:300
Current Record:16-15
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:9-9
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-6
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:197
Expected OOC SOS:299


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
16-1551.61%219.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal Poly.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12San Jose St. (279.0)WACH79-52W100%0.0
11-16Cal St. Bakersfield (213.0)indH58-60L0%0.0
11-19Southern California (270.0)P12A36-42W100%0.0
11-22Nevada Las Vegas (21.0)MWCA75-52L0%0.0
11-25Morgan St. (286.0)MEACN61-62W100%0.0
11-26Mississippi Valley St. (144.0)SWACN55-72W100%0.0
11-30Sacramento St. (315.0)BSkyH77-51W100%0.0
12-3St. Mary's (28.0)WCCH54-59L0%0.0
12-10San Jose St. (279.0)WACA40-47W100%0.0
12-17Fresno St. (229.0)WACA46-65W100%0.0
12-21DePaul (198.0)BEA63-58L0%0.0
1-2UC Santa Barbara (119.0)BWH57-58L0%0.0
1-5Long Beach St. (34.0)BWA55-50L0%0.0
1-7Cal St. Fullerton (157.0)BWH73-67W100%0.0
1-12UC Irvine (254.0)BWA50-66W100%0.0
1-14UC Riverside (253.0)BWA60-53L0%0.0
1-19Long Beach St. (34.0)BWH69-78L0%0.0
1-21Cal St. Northridge (323.0)BWH100-54W100%0.0
1-26Pacific (288.0)BWA61-51L0%0.0
1-28UC Davis (338.0)BWA65-67W100%0.0
2-2Cal St. Fullerton (157.0)BWA83-61L0%0.0
2-4Cal St. Bakersfield (213.0)indA69-66L0%0.0
2-9UC Riverside (253.0)BWH54-52W100%0.0
2-11UC Irvine (254.0)BWH77-74W100%0.0
2-15Cal St. Northridge (323.0)BWA94-81L0%0.0
2-18Northern Colorado (262.0)BSkyA81-73L0%0.0
2-25UC Santa Barbara (119.0)BWA68-60L0%0.0
3-1UC Davis (338.0)BWH69-56W100%0.0
3-3Pacific (288.0)BWH67-38W100%0.0
3-8UC Riverside (253.0)BWN66-54W100%0.0
3-9UC Santa Barbara (119.0)BWN64-52L0%0.0