Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

The results on this page include CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED WEEKLY

For the daily updated  Cal Poly   page without conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Mar 12, 2010.

Cal Poly

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:255.8
Current RPI:256
Expected SOS:278
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:8-10
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-10
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:291
Expected OOC SOS:320


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
12-1938.71%255.8100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal Poly.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13San Francisco (206.8)WCCA62-73L0%0.0
11-15Stanford (165.1)P10A53-70L0%0.0
11-21Portland St. (221.5)BSkyA83-92L0%0.0
11-23St. Mary's (35.6)WCCA67-92L0%0.0
11-28Arkansas Little Rock (300.2)SBA62-71L0%0.0
12-3Seattle (191.8)indH85-74W100%0.0
12-5Pepperdine (304.1)WCCH83-77W100%0.0
12-15South Dakota St. (233.5)SumA73-66W100%0.0
12-16Wisconsin (21.5)B10A42-90L0%0.0
12-21Montana St. (200.5)BSkyH72-76L0%0.0
12-31Cal St. Bakersfield (317.0)indA63-70L0%0.0
1-4UC Irvine (275.6)BWA95-81W100%0.0
1-8Pacific (128.6)BWH63-73L0%0.0
1-10UC Davis (244.0)BWH72-69W100%0.0
1-14Cal St. Fullerton (205.2)BWA54-68L0%0.0
1-16Long Beach St. (105.3)BWA90-79W100%0.0
1-21UC Riverside (255.6)BWH67-65W100%0.0
1-23Cal St. Northridge (251.7)BWH73-72W100%0.0
1-28UC Santa Barbara (101.7)BWA57-80L0%0.0
1-30Cal St. Bakersfield (317.0)indH53-57L0%0.0
2-4UC Davis (244.0)BWA63-83L0%0.0
2-6Pacific (128.6)BWA61-67L0%0.0
2-11Long Beach St. (105.3)BWH72-78L0%0.0
2-13UC Riverside (255.6)BWA87-84W100%0.0
2-17Cal St. Northridge (251.7)BWA68-73L0%0.0
2-20Hawaii (253.2)WACA102-89W100%0.0
2-24Cal St. Fullerton (205.2)BWH68-70L0%0.0
2-27UC Santa Barbara (101.7)BWH60-57W100%0.0
3-6UC Irvine (275.6)BWH84-91L0%0.0
3-10UC Irvine (275.6)BWN73-69W100%0.0
3-11Long Beach St. (105.3)BWN69-79L0%0.0