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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Bowling Green

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:155.4
Current RPI:175
Expected SOS:134
Current Record:10-11
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:5-4
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:5.67%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:190
Expected OOC SOS:188


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
20-1262.50%66.80.17%
19-1261.29%95.30.07%
20-1360.61%85.20.24%
18-1260.00%115.00.05%
19-1359.38%85.31.02%
18-1358.06%107.50.99%
19-1457.58%97.01.51%
17-1356.67%122.90.94%
18-1456.25%108.12.28%
17-1454.84%129.84.55%
18-1554.55%111.53.63%
16-1453.33%136.13.41%
17-1553.12%132.55.63%
16-1551.61%152.312.85%
17-1651.52%124.73.48%
16-1650.00%146.96.20%
15-1550.00%157.93.66%
16-1748.48%137.22.15%
15-1648.39%167.916.39%
15-1746.88%159.73.59%
14-1646.67%181.04.58%
15-1845.45%147.90.55%
14-1745.16%181.910.46%
14-1843.75%170.60.97%
13-1743.33%196.64.05%
14-1942.42%161.20.04%
13-1841.94%191.33.43%
13-1940.62%181.80.08%
12-1840.00%209.62.02%
12-1938.71%199.90.48%
12-2037.50%189.00.03%
11-1936.67%223.90.41%
11-2035.48%212.20.04%
10-2033.33%236.80.04%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bowling Green.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Howard (300.1)MEACH63-48W100%0.0
11-13Georgia (139.9)SECA63-54L0%0.0
11-21Austin Peay (197.8)OVCH82-72W100%0.0
11-22Detroit (180.8)HorzH67-61W100%0.0
11-23George Washington (201.3)A10H56-77L0%0.0
11-27Temple (28.6)A10H67-64W100%0.0
12-4Western Kentucky (240.9)SBA60-53L0%0.0
12-10Valparaiso (105.3)HorzA82-79L0%0.0
12-17Michigan St. (9.7)B10A74-60L0%0.0
12-22Florida International (213.6)SBA53-61W100%0.0
12-28Duquesne (86.2)A10A86-76L0%0.0
1-1Texas San Antonio (159.9)SlndA86-79L0%0.0
1-7Ohio (61.7)MACH67-57W100%0.0
1-11Akron (44.8)MACH55-56L0%0.0
1-14Kent St. (82.5)MACA92-87L0%0.0
1-18Miami OH (208.4)MACA57-65W100%0.0
1-21Buffalo (65.6)MACH66-68L0%0.0
1-25Central Michigan (271.5)MACH71-58W100%0.0
1-28Eastern Michigan (253.1)MACA55-50L0%0.0
2-1Western Michigan (182.0)MACA48-72W100%0.0
2-4Northern Illinois (337.7)MACH65-40W100%0.0
2-8Ball St. (218.9)MACA0-048%-0.6
2-11Toledo (273.3)MACH0-083%10.5
2-15Ohio (61.7)MACA0-026%-7.1
2-18Morehead St. (185.5)OVCH0-084%10.8
2-22Akron (44.8)MACA0-021%-8.7
2-25Kent St. (82.5)MACH0-054%1.0
2-29Miami OH (208.4)MACH0-075%7.2
3-3Buffalo (65.6)MACA0-026%-7.2