live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Boston University

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:159.1
Current RPI:168
Expected SOS:220
Current Record:13-13
Expected Record:18-15
Current Conf Record:9-3
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:15.57%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-1
Current OOC Record:4-10
Expected OOC Record:4-11
Expected OOC RPI:175
Expected OOC SOS:62


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
21-1361.76%114.02.08%
20-1458.82%126.810.19%
19-1457.58%147.25.85%
18-1456.25%163.42.85%
19-1555.88%140.315.53%
18-1554.55%160.420.80%
17-1553.12%177.210.37%
18-1652.94%154.47.70%
17-1651.52%175.612.22%
17-1750.00%168.81.62%
16-1650.00%192.15.82%
16-1748.48%190.63.08%
16-1847.06%182.00.19%
15-1746.88%205.01.33%
15-1845.45%199.70.18%
14-1843.75%218.20.18%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boston University.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Northeastern (165.1)CAAH74-82L0%0.0
11-13Texas (59.0)B12A82-46L0%0.0
11-20Cornell (182.4)IvyA71-66L0%0.0
11-25Cleveland St. (55.0)HorzN62-63L0%0.0
11-26Rhode Island (255.0)A10A64-70W100%0.0
11-27Hofstra (234.9)CAAN68-61W100%0.0
11-30Delaware (178.3)CAAH73-67W100%0.0
12-3Boston College (250.9)ACCA61-75W100%0.0
12-7Saint Joseph's (56.7)A10A75-68L0%0.0
12-10Harvard (45.6)IvyH52-76L0%0.0
12-13Villanova (105.3)BEA68-43L0%0.0
12-22Bucknell (80.9)PatH61-75L0%0.0
12-29La Salle (69.7)A10A70-53L0%0.0
12-31Quinnipiac (165.8)NECA59-53L0%0.0
1-5Vermont (155.6)AEA83-69L0%0.0
1-8Binghamton (343.4)AEH68-49W100%0.0
1-11Maine (262.1)AEA68-77W100%0.0
1-14Stony Brook (132.5)AEH61-55W100%0.0
1-16Albany (206.4)AEH70-57W100%0.0
1-19New Hampshire (314.7)AEA50-52W100%0.0
1-22Hartford (323.5)AEA46-65W100%0.0
1-24MD Baltimore County (335.4)AEH83-48W100%0.0
1-27Stony Brook (132.5)AEA66-57L0%0.0
2-1Vermont (155.6)AEH67-68L0%0.0
2-4Binghamton (343.4)AEA53-68W100%0.0
2-6Albany (206.4)AEA78-81W100%0.0
2-9Maine (262.1)AEH0-078%8.3
2-15New Hampshire (314.7)AEH0-085%11.5
2-18Loyola MD (78.4)MAACA0-025%-7.3
2-22MD Baltimore County (335.4)AEA0-088%12.8
2-25Hartford (323.5)AEH0-092%15.6