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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Ball St.

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:218.9
Current RPI:233
Expected SOS:324
Current Record:11-9
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:4-5
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:2.63%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-4
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:210
Expected OOC SOS:339


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
22-970.97%109.20.05%
22-1068.75%127.20.05%
21-1067.74%128.20.31%
20-1066.67%158.90.52%
21-1165.62%145.00.81%
19-1065.52%181.30.81%
20-1164.52%161.91.56%
19-1163.33%190.54.17%
20-1262.50%163.01.98%
18-1162.07%197.63.82%
19-1261.29%187.64.25%
18-1260.00%212.313.98%
19-1359.38%176.22.15%
17-1258.62%219.05.09%
18-1358.06%204.55.33%
17-1356.67%225.817.09%
18-1456.25%192.01.20%
16-1355.17%237.87.05%
17-1454.84%217.52.77%
16-1453.33%237.611.63%
17-1553.12%205.10.34%
15-1451.72%252.75.67%
16-1551.61%226.20.85%
16-1650.00%220.70.03%
15-1550.00%248.43.64%
15-1648.39%233.40.17%
14-1548.28%265.52.94%
15-1746.88%219.00.01%
14-1646.67%256.60.76%
14-1745.16%245.00.02%
13-1644.83%277.10.81%
13-1743.33%268.50.06%
12-1741.38%286.90.07%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ball St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Arizona (75.5)P12A73-63L0%0.0
11-18Indiana St. (137.7)MVCA57-50L0%0.0
11-23IUPUI (246.0)SumH69-62W100%0.0
11-29Texas Southern (228.4)SWACH64-53W100%0.0
12-3Tennessee Martin (323.2)OVCA48-71W100%0.0
12-6SIU Edwardsville (305.6)OVCA55-76W100%0.0
12-10Butler (146.3)HorzH58-55W100%0.0
12-19IUPUI (246.0)SumA66-57L0%0.0
12-23Morehead St. (185.5)OVCA62-54L0%0.0
12-31Chicago St. (335.1)GWCH86-58W100%0.0
1-4Florida A&M (323.5)MEACH70-55W100%0.0
1-7Western Michigan (182.0)MACH78-69W100%0.0
1-10Toledo (273.3)MACA68-70W100%0.0
1-14Eastern Michigan (253.1)MACH48-51L0%0.0
1-18Central Michigan (271.5)MACA52-73W100%0.0
1-21Northern Illinois (337.7)MACA65-75W100%0.0
1-24Akron (44.8)MACH58-70L0%0.0
1-28Ohio (61.7)MACA59-55L0%0.0
2-1Buffalo (65.6)MACA73-57L0%0.0
2-4Miami OH (208.4)MACH53-59L0%0.0
2-8Bowling Green (155.4)MACH0-052%0.6
2-11Kent St. (82.5)MACA0-022%-8.3
2-15Toledo (273.3)MACH0-076%7.8
2-18Southern Illinois (229.9)MVCH0-072%6.4
2-22Western Michigan (182.0)MACA0-044%-1.8
2-25Eastern Michigan (253.1)MACA0-066%4.5
2-29Central Michigan (271.5)MACH0-079%8.6
3-2Northern Illinois (337.7)MACH0-097%19.9