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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Austin Peay

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:197.8
Current RPI:211
Expected SOS:122
Current Record:8-17
Expected Record:12-20
Current Conf Record:6-6
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:2.67%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-4
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-12
Expected OOC RPI:217
Expected OOC SOS:21


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
16-1748.48%121.00.04%
16-1847.06%114.90.16%
15-1746.88%121.30.03%
15-1845.45%127.70.33%
15-1944.12%131.51.37%
14-1843.75%151.20.50%
14-1942.42%151.82.81%
13-1841.94%176.20.72%
14-2041.18%148.83.33%
13-1940.62%173.05.80%
13-2039.39%172.96.32%
12-1938.71%194.27.16%
13-2138.24%164.82.70%
12-2037.50%192.211.55%
11-1936.67%208.50.02%
12-2136.36%189.75.70%
11-2035.48%209.516.13%
12-2235.29%181.10.55%
11-2134.38%208.98.63%
11-2233.33%201.81.99%
10-2033.33%218.70.78%
11-2332.35%192.00.02%
10-2132.26%223.313.30%
10-2231.25%222.62.33%
10-2330.30%209.60.20%
9-2130.00%231.01.67%
9-2229.03%237.54.66%
9-2328.12%236.80.12%
8-2226.67%245.10.66%
8-2325.81%249.80.41%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Austin Peay.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Middle Tennessee (40.8)SBA80-71L0%0.0
11-15California (40.2)P12A72-55L0%0.0
11-19Oral Roberts (40.9)SumA71-59L0%0.0
11-21Bowling Green (155.4)MACA82-72L0%0.0
11-22George Washington (201.3)A10N52-54L0%0.0
11-23Detroit (180.8)HorzN94-93L0%0.0
11-26Middle Tennessee (40.8)SBH70-90L0%0.0
11-28Lipscomb (209.3)ASunA67-59L0%0.0
12-3Memphis (33.8)CUSAA91-60L0%0.0
12-5Arkansas St. (229.8)SBH86-82W100%0.0
12-10Tennessee (140.6)SECA70-74W100%0.0
12-21Belmont (53.1)ASunH67-77L0%0.0
12-29Eastern Kentucky (206.1)OVCA67-65L0%0.0
12-31Morehead St. (185.5)OVCA68-64L0%0.0
1-7Murray St. (26.6)OVCH75-87L0%0.0
1-12Eastern Kentucky (206.1)OVCH80-65W100%0.0
1-14Jacksonville St. (247.7)OVCH60-57W100%0.0
1-16Tennessee St. (153.6)OVCH69-63W100%0.0
1-19SIU Edwardsville (305.6)OVCA67-80W100%0.0
1-21Eastern Illinois (295.0)OVCA64-76W100%0.0
1-26Southeast Missouri St. (236.6)OVCA65-60L0%0.0
1-28Tennessee Martin (323.2)OVCH92-73W100%0.0
1-30Tennessee St. (153.6)OVCA77-57L0%0.0
2-2Tennessee Tech (131.7)OVCH88-94L0%0.0
2-6Belmont (53.1)ASunA94-55L0%0.0
2-11Murray St. (26.6)OVCA0-08%-15.2
2-15Morehead St. (185.5)OVCH0-065%4.3
2-18Youngstown St. (158.8)HorzH0-049%-0.2
2-23Tennessee Martin (323.2)OVCA0-072%6.2
2-25Southeast Missouri St. (236.6)OVCH0-067%4.9