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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Arkansas St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:229.8
Current RPI:234
Expected SOS:171
Current Record:9-15
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:4-6
Expected Conf Record:7-10
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.40%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC RPI:196
Expected OOC SOS:109


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
18-1652.94%122.00.02%
17-1651.52%140.70.03%
17-1750.00%138.30.14%
16-1650.00%159.80.22%
16-1748.48%163.80.26%
15-1648.39%180.00.26%
16-1847.06%158.80.53%
15-1746.88%180.41.32%
15-1845.45%182.01.53%
14-1745.16%199.52.13%
15-1944.12%173.70.72%
14-1843.75%199.55.19%
14-1942.42%196.91.63%
13-1841.94%218.57.56%
14-2041.18%189.40.25%
13-1940.62%211.411.07%
15-2240.54%186.80.05%
14-2140.00%202.00.01%
12-1840.00%226.50.49%
13-2039.39%207.90.60%
14-2238.89%194.00.04%
12-1938.71%233.415.62%
13-2138.24%215.20.14%
14-2337.84%208.30.07%
12-2037.50%224.68.70%
13-2237.14%217.10.08%
11-1936.67%240.910.09%
12-2136.36%229.50.26%
13-2336.11%214.80.09%
11-2035.48%248.512.37%
12-2235.29%233.30.41%
11-2134.38%239.70.97%
12-2334.29%228.60.05%
11-2233.33%251.90.81%
10-2033.33%256.911.64%
11-2332.35%250.10.24%
10-2132.26%263.71.00%
10-2231.25%269.30.84%
10-2330.30%267.20.75%
9-2130.00%271.11.02%
9-2328.12%281.60.79%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Lamar (91.1)SlndA65-62L0%0.0
11-15Missouri St. (82.9)MVCH46-77L0%0.0
11-17Tennessee Martin (323.2)OVCH63-45W100%0.0
11-20Ohio (61.7)MACA69-54L0%0.0
11-22Louisville (24.8)BEA54-27L0%0.0
11-29Southeast Missouri St. (236.6)OVCH79-63W100%0.0
12-1St. Bonaventure (99.1)A10A52-58W100%0.0
12-5Austin Peay (197.8)OVCA86-82L0%0.0
12-10Central Arkansas (299.9)SlndH71-64W100%0.0
12-14Seattle (291.5)indH87-74W100%0.0
12-17Murray St. (26.6)OVCA66-53L0%0.0
12-22St. Louis (28.8)A10A70-46L0%0.0
12-29Kent St. (82.5)MACH54-69L0%0.0
12-31Louisiana Monroe (324.7)SBA63-65W100%0.0
1-5Denver (82.1)SBH50-53L0%0.0
1-7North Texas (198.8)SBH75-72W100%0.0
1-9Florida Atlantic (177.8)SBH50-58L0%0.0
1-14Arkansas Little Rock (187.9)SBH62-63L0%0.0
1-19Middle Tennessee (40.8)SBA59-46L0%0.0
1-21Louisiana Lafayette (158.5)SBH79-74W100%0.0
1-26Denver (82.1)SBA66-52L0%0.0
1-28North Texas (198.8)SBA76-64L0%0.0
2-2Louisiana Monroe (324.7)SBH72-64W100%0.0
2-4Seattle (291.5)indA75-69L0%0.0
2-9South Alabama (196.9)SBA0-033%-4.9
2-11Louisiana Lafayette (158.5)SBA0-026%-7.1
2-16Troy (271.6)SBH0-067%4.9
2-18Florida International (213.6)SBH0-055%1.4
2-23Western Kentucky (240.9)SBA0-040%-2.9
2-25Arkansas Little Rock (187.9)SBA0-030%-5.7