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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Arkansas Pine Bluff

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:322.7
Current RPI:337
Expected SOS:333
Current Record:5-19
Expected Record:8-24
Current Conf Record:4-7
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:2.69%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-12
Current OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:301
Expected OOC SOS:125


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
15-1944.12%239.00.01%
14-2041.18%263.90.09%
13-2039.39%282.20.08%
13-2138.24%278.30.43%
12-2037.50%292.20.06%
12-2136.36%290.90.66%
12-2235.29%289.61.52%
11-2134.38%302.11.10%
11-2233.33%300.42.56%
11-2332.35%300.13.36%
10-2231.25%311.05.81%
10-2330.30%310.95.02%
10-2429.41%309.73.20%
9-2328.12%319.614.39%
9-2427.27%319.96.27%
9-2526.47%318.51.45%
8-2325.81%326.50.50%
8-2425.00%327.620.42%
8-2524.24%327.82.63%
8-2623.53%326.10.09%
7-2422.58%333.55.23%
7-2521.88%333.313.94%
7-2621.21%333.60.24%
6-2519.35%338.27.40%
6-2618.75%337.51.95%
5-2616.13%341.31.58%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas Pine Bluff.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Oklahoma St. (119.2)B12A73-46L0%0.0
11-16Oral Roberts (40.9)SumN80-44L0%0.0
11-21Florida International (213.6)SBN56-58W100%0.0
11-22Southern Methodist (217.6)CUSAN64-55L0%0.0
11-28Auburn (159.9)SECA72-59L0%0.0
12-10Air Force (181.8)MWCA63-51L0%0.0
12-13Michigan (34.3)B10A63-50L0%0.0
12-15Akron (44.8)MACA87-64L0%0.0
12-17DePaul (195.3)BEA81-62L0%0.0
12-21Cincinnati (91.3)BEA101-53L0%0.0
12-28Jacksonville St. (247.7)OVCN78-55L0%0.0
12-29Texas El Paso (180.1)CUSAA79-58L0%0.0
12-31New Mexico St. (67.9)WACA81-65L0%0.0
1-3Mississippi Valley St. (143.0)SWACA82-67L0%0.0
1-7Alabama A&M (330.8)SWACA65-62L0%0.0
1-9Alabama St. (302.2)SWACA62-56L0%0.0
1-14Southern (280.2)SWACH68-69L0%0.0
1-16Alcorn St. (330.4)SWACH75-68W100%0.0
1-21Texas Southern (228.4)SWACA69-55L0%0.0
1-23Prairie View A&M (278.7)SWACA76-75L0%0.0
1-28Grambling (341.9)SWACH55-60L0%0.0
1-30Jackson St. (312.2)SWACH73-69W100%0.0
2-4Alabama A&M (330.8)SWACH81-75W100%0.0
2-6Alabama St. (302.2)SWACH62-61W100%0.0
2-11Southern (280.2)SWACA0-030%-5.8
2-13Alcorn St. (330.4)SWACA0-049%-0.4
2-18Prairie View A&M (278.7)SWACH0-055%1.3
2-20Texas Southern (228.4)SWACH0-035%-4.1
2-25Grambling (341.9)SWACA0-070%5.8
2-27Jackson St. (312.2)SWACA0-038%-3.4
3-1Mississippi Valley St. (143.0)SWACH0-025%-7.5