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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Appalachian St.

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:254.2
Current RPI:248
Expected SOS:226
Current Record:7-14
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:5-8
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:1.34%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-8
Current OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:199
Expected OOC SOS:70


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
16-1453.33%152.00.01%
16-1551.61%159.40.10%
15-1550.00%174.70.26%
15-1648.39%177.40.64%
14-1548.28%197.90.40%
14-1646.67%205.41.16%
13-1546.43%217.70.76%
14-1745.16%197.61.63%
13-1644.83%219.63.68%
13-1743.33%223.72.35%
12-1642.86%236.24.05%
13-1841.94%213.21.57%
12-1741.38%235.28.81%
12-1840.00%233.83.15%
11-1739.29%252.410.68%
12-1938.71%229.10.94%
11-1837.93%249.19.47%
11-1936.67%247.32.68%
10-1835.71%266.418.62%
11-2035.48%245.20.24%
10-1934.48%265.54.78%
10-2033.33%263.01.54%
10-2132.26%257.30.03%
9-1932.14%280.014.61%
9-2031.03%283.11.54%
9-2130.00%277.40.21%
8-2028.57%291.65.10%
8-2127.59%295.10.21%
7-2125.00%301.80.77%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Appalachian St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15East Tennessee St. (192.3)ASunA81-68L0%0.0
11-19Tennessee Tech (131.7)OVCA63-68W100%0.0
11-22East Carolina (158.6)CUSAN47-67L0%0.0
12-1NC Greensboro (257.1)SCH78-64W100%0.0
12-3Georgia Southern (215.2)SCA73-62L0%0.0
12-6Minnesota (71.7)B10A70-56L0%0.0
12-10East Tennessee St. (192.3)ASunH48-65L0%0.0
12-17North Carolina (5.2)ACCA97-82L0%0.0
12-22Campbell (155.0)BSthH77-74W100%0.0
12-30Miami FL (57.7)ACCA84-54L0%0.0
1-5Samford (249.0)SCA63-68W100%0.0
1-7Chattanooga (276.1)SCA65-63L0%0.0
1-12Furman (232.7)SCH56-50W100%0.0
1-14Davidson (48.8)SCH79-83L0%0.0
1-19Wofford (168.5)SCA73-61L0%0.0
1-21Western Carolina (257.4)SCH84-72W100%0.0
1-26NC Greensboro (257.1)SCA77-73L0%0.0
1-28Elon (211.2)SCH81-66W100%0.0
2-2Samford (249.0)SCH52-53L0%0.0
2-4College of Charleston (122.2)SCH62-74L0%0.0
2-6Elon (211.2)SCA82-59L0%0.0
2-9Furman (232.7)SCA0-033%-4.8
2-11Wofford (168.5)SCH0-044%-1.7
2-15Chattanooga (276.1)SCH0-057%1.8
2-18Winthrop (265.9)BSthH0-061%3.1
2-22The Citadel (331.7)SCA0-067%4.8
2-25Western Carolina (257.4)SCA0-042%-2.3