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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Alabama St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:302.2
Current RPI:315
Expected SOS:340
Current Record:6-15
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:5-6
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:5.58%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-10
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:285
Expected OOC SOS:161


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
16-1551.61%219.70.12%
15-1648.39%241.10.84%
14-1646.67%267.20.29%
14-1745.16%256.12.32%
13-1644.83%281.10.41%
13-1743.33%278.22.80%
13-1841.94%273.63.96%
12-1741.38%291.43.96%
12-1840.00%288.78.20%
12-1938.71%288.23.82%
11-1837.93%301.312.96%
11-1936.67%299.010.69%
11-2035.48%298.52.37%
10-1934.48%310.517.91%
10-2033.33%308.86.77%
10-2132.26%308.00.85%
9-2031.03%319.613.28%
9-2130.00%318.41.61%
9-2229.03%316.60.10%
8-2028.57%326.30.09%
8-2127.59%327.15.13%
8-2226.67%325.90.16%
7-2125.00%331.70.41%
7-2224.14%332.50.91%
6-2221.43%337.00.03%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Marshall (62.5)CUSAA67-49L0%0.0
11-13Cincinnati (91.3)BEA65-40L0%0.0
11-17Northwestern St. (179.3)SlndH60-67L0%0.0
11-19Jacksonville St. (247.7)OVCA78-65L0%0.0
11-29Evansville (149.4)MVCA62-55L0%0.0
12-3Florida International (213.6)SBA57-60W100%0.0
12-10Stephen F. Austin (246.7)SlndA74-48L0%0.0
12-17St. Louis (28.8)A10A65-35L0%0.0
12-19Clemson (165.8)ACCA70-45L0%0.0
12-22Detroit (180.8)HorzA80-56L0%0.0
1-3Grambling (341.9)SWACA62-73W100%0.0
1-5Jackson St. (312.2)SWACA78-81W100%0.0
1-7Mississippi Valley St. (143.0)SWACH60-67L0%0.0
1-9Arkansas Pine Bluff (322.7)SWACH62-56W100%0.0
1-14Alabama A&M (330.8)SWACH53-50W100%0.0
1-21Alcorn St. (330.4)SWACA61-60L0%0.0
1-23Southern (280.2)SWACA68-56L0%0.0
1-28Prairie View A&M (278.7)SWACH57-64L0%0.0
1-30Texas Southern (228.4)SWACH66-59W100%0.0
2-4Mississippi Valley St. (143.0)SWACA70-58L0%0.0
2-6Arkansas Pine Bluff (322.7)SWACA62-61L0%0.0
2-11Alabama A&M (330.8)SWACA0-046%-1.1
2-18Alcorn St. (330.4)SWACH0-077%8.1
2-20Southern (280.2)SWACH0-060%2.6
2-25Texas Southern (228.4)SWACA0-021%-8.8
2-27Prairie View A&M (278.7)SWACA0-038%-3.3
3-1Grambling (341.9)SWACH0-091%14.3
3-3Jackson St. (312.2)SWACH0-068%5.1