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Tweet Through games of Mar 13, 2016.

Air Force

Expected RPI:226.0
Current RPI:226
Expected SOS:157
Current Record:12-18
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-2
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:116
Expected OOC SOS:201


Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Air Force.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCA77-75L0%0.0
11-16Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCH80-70W100%0.0
11-19Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACH65-64W100%0.0
11-22Robert Morris (291.0)NECH64-52W100%0.0
11-25Colorado (35.0)P12A81-70L0%0.0
11-28New Mexico St. (111.0)WACH66-64W100%0.0
12-2The Citadel (322.0)SCH97-93W100%0.0
12-5Denver (188.0)SumA59-61W100%0.0
12-8Ohio St. (74.0)B10A74-50L0%0.0
12-12Army (214.0)PatH80-90L0%0.0
12-19UC Davis (281.0)BWA60-67W100%0.0
1-2San Jose St. (301.0)MWCH64-57W100%0.0
1-6Wyoming (187.0)MWCA64-52L0%0.0
1-9Nevada (118.0)MWCH63-86L0%0.0
1-12Utah St. (151.0)MWCA79-60L0%0.0
1-16UNLV (147.0)MWCA100-64L0%0.0
1-20Colorado St. (181.0)MWCH79-83L0%0.0
1-23Fresno St. (66.0)MWCH55-56L0%0.0
1-27New Mexico (141.0)MWCA84-55L0%0.0
1-30San Jose St. (301.0)MWCA75-54L0%0.0
2-2Wyoming (187.0)MWCH70-62W100%0.0
2-6Boise St. (101.0)MWCH61-53W100%0.0
2-10Nevada (118.0)MWCA72-52L0%0.0
2-13San Diego St. (41.0)MWCA70-61L0%0.0
2-16UNLV (147.0)MWCH79-74W100%0.0
2-20New Mexico (141.0)MWCH76-72W100%0.0
2-24Fresno St. (66.0)MWCA64-63L0%0.0
3-1Utah St. (151.0)MWCH65-78L0%0.0
3-5Colorado St. (181.0)MWCA87-73L0%0.0
3-9UNLV (147.0)MWCA108-102L0%0.0