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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Western Illinois

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:328.0
Current RPI:328
Expected SOS:231
Current SOS:231
Current Record:6-20
Expected Record:6-20
Current Conf Record:3-14
Expected Conf Record:3-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-9
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:295
Expected OOC SOS:269



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-20328.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Pacific (241.0)WCCH71-73L0%0.0
11-17Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzA67-64L0%0.0
11-22Southeastern Louisiana (329.0)SlndH60-57W100%0.0
11-25William & Mary (93.0)CAAA83-49L0%0.0
12-4Akron (115.0)MACA73-49L0%0.0
12-7Cleveland St. (127.0)HorzA76-54L0%0.0
12-11Idaho (267.0)BSkyH78-75W100%0.0
12-13Alabama St. (258.0)SWACH78-68W100%0.0
12-23Memphis (83.0)AmerA78-51L0%0.0
1-2IPFW (215.0)SumH73-67W100%0.0
1-4Nebraska Omaha (300.0)SumH80-78W100%0.0
1-7South Dakota St. (90.0)SumA75-44L0%0.0
1-10Oral Roberts (163.0)SumH57-66L0%0.0
1-14Denver (232.0)SumA68-54L0%0.0
1-16North Dakota St. (92.0)SumA61-48L0%0.0
1-22South Dakota (213.0)SumH58-68L0%0.0
1-30IUPUI (260.0)SumH63-59W100%0.0
2-1North Dakota St. (92.0)SumH62-64L0%0.0
2-5South Dakota (213.0)SumA75-61L0%0.0
2-12Oral Roberts (163.0)SumA77-67L0%0.0
2-14Nebraska Omaha (300.0)SumA77-58L0%0.0
2-18South Dakota St. (90.0)SumH77-79L0%0.0
2-21Denver (232.0)SumH46-59L0%0.0
2-26IUPUI (260.0)SumA71-66L0%0.0
2-28IPFW (215.0)SumA84-64L0%0.0
3-7South Dakota St. (90.0)SumN87-50L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western IllinoisSum26.4826.4817.3117.31-17.31-17.31
South Dakota St.Sum6.886.8864.2964.291.961.96
North Dakota St.Sum5.075.0767.8667.861.811.81
South DakotaSum4.994.9944.8344.83-0.52-0.52
Oral RobertsSum4.974.9750.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum4.884.8831.0331.03-1.85-1.85
DenverSum4.884.8835.7135.71-1.39-1.39
IPFWSum4.864.8648.0048.00-0.19-0.19
Nebraska OmahaSum4.814.8138.4638.46-1.11-1.11
IdahoBSky2.112.1140.7440.74-0.39-0.39
AkronMAC1.991.9957.5857.580.300.30
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.991.9922.5822.58-1.09-1.09
MemphisAmer1.991.9954.8454.840.190.19
Cleveland St.Horz1.981.9851.7251.720.070.07
Alabama St.SWAC1.921.9265.3865.380.590.59
PacificWCC1.921.9229.6329.63-0.78-0.78
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.921.9226.6726.67-0.90-0.90
William & MaryCAA1.921.9258.6258.620.330.33
MilwaukeeHorz0.310.3142.8642.86-0.04-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.300.3021.4321.43-0.17-0.17
Idaho St.BSky0.260.2617.8617.86-0.17-0.17
ValparaisoHorz0.230.2383.3383.330.150.15
DetroitHorz0.220.2241.9441.94-0.04-0.04
MontanaBSky0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
Montana St.BSky0.190.1920.6920.69-0.11-0.11
Youngstown St.Horz0.190.1927.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Kent St.MAC0.180.1864.5264.520.050.05
BuffaloMAC0.180.1871.8871.880.080.08
UMKCWAC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.160.1690.9190.910.130.13
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.150.1573.3373.330.070.07
OaklandHorz0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.1416.6716.67-0.09-0.09
San FranciscoWCC0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
Weber St.BSky0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.130.136.906.90-0.11-0.11
PepperdineWCC0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.130.1393.9493.940.110.11
UtahP120.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.130.1330.7730.77-0.05-0.05
StanfordP120.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
TulsaAmer0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
UCFAmer0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1118.7518.75-0.07-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
NevadaMWC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
ElonCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
OklahomaB120.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
HowardMEAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
WoffordSC0.090.0981.2581.250.060.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0965.5265.520.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0940.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0972.4172.410.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
BryantNEC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0975.8675.860.050.05
TulaneAmer0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
SMUAmer0.090.0981.2581.250.060.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
ToledoMAC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.070.000.00-0.07-0.07
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0627.2727.27-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.060.0637.9337.93-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Oregon St.P120.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0686.6786.670.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
OhioMAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.020.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
USCP120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01