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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Western Illinois

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:259.8
Current RPI:270
Expected SOS:156
Current SOS:187
Current Record:5-13
Expected Record:7-17
Current Conf Record:1-9
Expected Conf Record:3-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-3
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC RPI:180
Expected OOC SOS:301



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-13176.80.08%
10-14196.11.19%
9-15217.17.41%
8-16239.322.53%
7-17261.134.86%
6-18280.025.90%
5-19296.18.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Wisconsin (59.0)B10A67-69W100%0.0
11-17Illinois Chicago (347.2)HorzH84-57W100%0.0
11-21Eastern Illinois (268.0)OVCA63-83W100%0.0
11-28Creighton (80.1)BEA97-67L0%0.0
12-7Iowa (7.4)B10A90-56L0%0.0
12-12Eastern Illinois (268.0)OVCH64-57W100%0.0
12-19Chicago St. (344.3)WACA77-70L0%0.0
12-21Loyola Chicago (232.7)MVCA72-67L0%0.0
1-1Nebraska Omaha (127.1)SumA82-80L0%0.0
1-3South Dakota St. (46.0)SumA63-59L0%0.0
1-9IUPUI (178.2)SumH60-67L0%0.0
1-14Denver (200.7)SumH69-76L0%0.0
1-16Oral Roberts (150.0)SumH68-77L0%0.0
1-20South Dakota (192.1)SumA76-67L0%0.0
1-23North Dakota St. (114.3)SumH52-65L0%0.0
1-29IUPUI (178.2)SumA69-67L0%0.0
1-31IPFW (81.4)SumA88-67L0%0.0
2-3Nebraska Omaha (127.1)SumH83-76W100%0.0
2-11Denver (200.7)SumA0-034%-4.6
2-13Oral Roberts (150.0)SumA0-028%-6.5
2-17North Dakota St. (114.3)SumA0-018%-10.1
2-20South Dakota St. (46.0)SumH0-022%-8.4
2-25IPFW (81.4)SumH0-041%-2.4
2-27South Dakota (192.1)SumH0-058%2.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western IllinoisSum26.4126.5329.4930.24-10.84-10.49
Nebraska OmahaSum6.325.2659.0959.131.150.96
IUPUISum6.205.2334.7835.46-1.89-1.52
DenverSum3.595.1952.1749.460.16-0.06
IPFWSum3.495.1969.5767.801.361.85
South DakotaSum3.545.1939.1339.02-0.77-1.14
North Dakota St.Sum3.425.1861.9059.910.811.03
Oral RobertsSum3.485.1836.3637.64-0.95-1.28
South Dakota St.Sum3.595.1872.7373.601.632.45
Eastern IllinoisOVC5.674.2442.8644.31-0.81-0.48
CreightonBE2.952.1962.5060.770.740.47
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.902.1643.4841.67-0.38-0.36
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.842.125.267.50-2.54-1.80
WisconsinB102.782.1265.2258.860.850.38
IowaB102.782.1281.8279.851.771.26
Chicago St.WAC2.782.080.004.30-2.78-1.90
UMKCWAC0.350.3328.5732.73-0.15-0.11
MinnesotaB100.290.3325.0027.23-0.15-0.15
IllinoisB100.370.3245.8344.11-0.03-0.04
IndianaB100.350.3279.1774.060.200.15
Austin PeayOVC0.360.3040.0042.85-0.07-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.290.2937.5037.41-0.07-0.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.240.2559.0959.650.040.05
MarquetteBE0.290.2464.0057.920.080.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.180.2347.8350.01-0.010.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.180.2317.3920.66-0.12-0.13
Green BayHorz0.310.2354.5556.010.030.03
Weber St.BSky0.180.2265.0069.230.050.08
Indiana St.MVC0.350.2250.0049.600.00-0.00
PurdueB100.290.2180.0077.960.170.12
Cleveland St.Horz0.260.1921.7422.74-0.15-0.10
ValparaisoHorz0.260.1981.8283.030.160.12
Illinois St.MVC0.250.1854.1750.990.020.00
Ball St.MAC0.290.1860.8757.160.060.03
Murray St.OVC0.120.1545.4549.69-0.01-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.190.1533.3335.05-0.06-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1513.6415.80-0.09-0.11
DetroitHorz0.130.1547.6245.85-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.130.1556.5257.020.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.180.1582.6181.130.110.09
Montana St.BSky0.180.1540.9143.75-0.03-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1565.2268.590.040.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.180.1542.8650.41-0.030.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1514.2915.45-0.09-0.10
Northern IllinoisMAC0.190.1560.0057.640.040.02
Iowa St.B120.180.1570.8368.000.080.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.180.1566.6767.710.060.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1547.6252.03-0.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.120.1545.0046.11-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.170.1528.5727.00-0.07-0.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1533.3334.95-0.04-0.04
WyomingMWC0.170.1543.4842.47-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.190.1520.8323.19-0.11-0.08
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1452.3854.070.010.01
DePaulBE0.240.1433.3334.01-0.08-0.05
OklahomaB120.170.1486.9682.580.130.09
Miami OHMAC0.170.1434.7833.05-0.05-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.170.1433.3334.19-0.06-0.04
ButlerBE0.170.1470.8368.990.070.05
Michigan St.B100.180.1480.0081.580.110.09
Jacksonville St.OVC0.180.1124.0024.17-0.09-0.06
OaklandHorz0.130.1168.0067.990.050.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.180.1165.2264.370.060.03
New MexicoMWC0.120.1158.3360.690.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.120.1147.3749.90-0.01-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.120.1131.8229.13-0.04-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.120.1173.9176.740.060.06
NorthwesternB100.180.1164.0062.090.050.03
MichiganB100.060.1070.8366.720.030.03
Penn St.B100.120.1050.0046.760.00-0.01
MarylandB100.120.1087.5083.690.090.07
NebraskaB100.170.1052.0050.780.010.00
RutgersB100.170.1021.7420.34-0.10-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.170.1056.0052.840.020.01
BelmontOVC0.120.0868.0066.660.040.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.0852.0050.230.000.00
HoustonAmer0.120.0870.8367.980.050.03
MarshallCUSA0.120.0850.0051.190.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.120.0850.0052.380.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.0825.0033.20-0.06-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.0868.1865.160.040.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0830.4332.35-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0742.8639.23-0.01-0.02
ColoradoP120.120.0769.5765.310.050.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.0740.0043.42-0.02-0.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0740.9145.29-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0750.0049.770.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.060.0770.8369.490.030.03
LSUSEC0.060.0762.5059.050.020.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0771.4369.430.030.03
MissouriSEC0.120.0733.3330.27-0.04-0.03
MontanaBSky0.060.0757.8962.320.010.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0729.1733.11-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.120.0747.6245.00-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0786.9680.370.040.05
SouthernSWAC0.120.0761.9065.310.030.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0731.5832.01-0.02-0.03
TCUB120.060.0745.8339.35-0.01-0.02
Texas TechB120.060.0760.8755.300.010.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0766.6764.730.020.02
UC DavisBW0.060.0740.0036.70-0.01-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0747.6249.26-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.060.0743.4837.81-0.01-0.02
BradleyMVC0.120.0712.0011.96-0.09-0.05
Cal PolyBW0.060.0730.0034.55-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0731.8230.15-0.02-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0775.0076.190.030.04
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0750.0049.850.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.060.0758.3356.290.010.01
LipscombASun0.060.0725.0029.28-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.060.0764.0064.480.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0756.0055.420.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0742.1145.67-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0730.4331.21-0.02-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.0773.0872.640.050.03
StetsonASun0.060.0723.8127.73-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.120.0760.8762.080.030.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0745.8341.65-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0727.2731.06-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.060.0752.1755.090.000.01
UtahP120.060.0770.8368.500.020.03
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0731.8232.69-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.120.0770.8367.820.050.03
UTSACUSA0.110.0713.6413.63-0.08-0.05
Georgia St.SB0.110.0757.8956.090.020.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.0721.7423.40-0.06-0.04
MemphisAmer0.110.0758.3359.360.020.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.0750.0049.050.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.110.0715.0015.32-0.08-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.0714.2920.65-0.08-0.04
Ohio St.B100.060.0760.0055.540.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.060.0772.0069.150.020.03
Seton HallBE0.110.0770.8368.100.050.02
St. John'sBE0.060.0725.0023.45-0.03-0.04
VillanovaBE0.110.0787.5086.870.080.05
XavierBE0.060.0787.5081.860.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0454.5550.110.010.00
UCFAmer0.070.0450.0044.680.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0428.5733.35-0.03-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0465.2266.190.020.01
DaytonA100.060.0386.9682.150.040.02
Florida St.ACC0.060.0369.5764.900.020.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0345.4547.54-0.01-0.00
Arizona St.P120.060.0354.1751.670.000.00
MassachusettsA100.060.0340.9139.26-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0333.3333.07-0.02-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.039.0917.14-0.05-0.02
SienaMAAC0.060.0364.0064.110.020.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0366.6762.560.020.01
TempleAmer0.060.0363.6459.710.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0376.1972.310.030.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0345.4554.16-0.010.00
VCUA100.060.0373.9174.060.030.02