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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Western Illinois

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:290.0
Current RPI:290
Expected SOS:209
Current SOS:209
Current Record:7-20
Expected Record:7-20
Current Conf Record:4-11
Expected Conf Record:4-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-12
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-5
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:280
Expected OOC SOS:229



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-20290.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Idaho (238.0)WACA67-63L0%0.0
11-12Nebraska (48.0)B10A62-47L0%0.0
11-17Pacific (133.0)WCCA66-52L0%0.0
11-26Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndA62-52L0%0.0
12-4Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCH60-32W100%0.0
12-16Alabama St. (254.0)SWACA59-52L0%0.0
12-19Utah St. (116.0)MWCA68-52L0%0.0
12-20Troy (285.0)SBN61-58W100%0.0
12-21UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWN61-55L0%0.0
12-28UTEP (103.0)CUSAA67-64L0%0.0
12-29Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACN64-62W100%0.0
1-4William & Mary (119.0)CAAH67-78L0%0.0
1-11Nebraska Omaha (219.0)SumH79-72W100%0.0
1-16South Dakota St. (138.0)SumA64-55L0%0.0
1-18North Dakota St. (35.0)SumA65-52L0%0.0
1-23South Dakota (255.0)SumH79-61W100%0.0
1-25Denver (139.0)SumH55-67L0%0.0
1-30IUPUI (322.0)SumA54-69W100%0.0
2-1IPFW (115.0)SumA77-64L0%0.0
2-8Nebraska Omaha (219.0)SumA71-60L0%0.0
2-13North Dakota St. (35.0)SumH52-56L0%0.0
2-15South Dakota St. (138.0)SumH50-62L0%0.0
2-20Denver (139.0)SumA75-67L0%0.0
2-22South Dakota (255.0)SumA64-54L0%0.0
2-27IPFW (115.0)SumH56-65L0%0.0
3-1IUPUI (322.0)SumH75-70W100%0.0
3-9South Dakota St. (138.0)SumN71-50L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western IllinoisSum26.4526.4525.6625.66-12.88-12.88
South Dakota St.Sum6.436.4352.0052.000.260.26
IPFWSum4.864.8665.5265.521.511.51
DenverSum4.754.7546.4346.43-0.34-0.34
North Dakota St.Sum4.674.6776.9276.922.512.51
IUPUISum4.614.6111.1111.11-3.59-3.59
South DakotaSum4.604.6032.0032.00-1.66-1.66
Nebraska OmahaSum4.544.5448.0048.00-0.18-0.18
Alcorn St.SWAC2.042.0433.3333.33-0.68-0.68
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.042.0466.6766.670.680.68
Alabama St.SWAC1.981.9855.5655.560.220.22
Utah St.MWC1.981.9853.3353.330.130.13
TroySB1.981.9832.1432.14-0.71-0.71
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.971.9733.3333.33-0.66-0.66
UTEPCUSA1.911.9166.6766.670.640.64
PacificWCC1.881.8846.4346.43-0.13-0.13
IdahoWAC1.851.8543.7543.75-0.23-0.23
NebraskaB101.851.8560.0060.000.370.37
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.851.8528.0028.00-0.81-0.81
William & MaryCAA1.851.8560.0060.000.370.37
Utah ValleyWAC0.310.3162.0762.070.080.08
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.260.2653.3353.330.020.02
WyomingMWC0.260.2653.3353.330.020.02
UMKCWAC0.250.2534.4834.48-0.08-0.08
Nicholls St.Slnd0.200.2046.1546.15-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
North DakotaBSky0.200.2048.3948.39-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.190.1971.8871.880.080.08
SouthernSWAC0.190.1955.1755.170.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.190.1945.4545.45-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.190.1937.5037.50-0.05-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.170.1725.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
StanfordP120.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
NevadaMWC0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
SeattleWAC0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.160.1642.4242.42-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.160.1673.5373.530.070.07
Ohio St.B100.160.1673.5373.530.070.07
TowsonCAA0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
MontanaBSky0.160.1653.5753.570.010.01
IllinoisB100.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.1424.0024.00-0.07-0.07
HawaiiBW0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
DrakeMVC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1314.8114.81-0.09-0.09
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1330.3030.30-0.05-0.05
Cal PolyBW0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.130.1319.3519.35-0.08-0.08
IowaB100.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.130.1380.6580.650.080.08
PepperdineWCC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
MissouriSEC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
Western KentuckySB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
CaliforniaP120.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
MercerASun0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
UC DavisBW0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
BYUWCC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
PurdueB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0987.1087.100.070.07
Boise St.MWC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
LamarSlnd0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Green BayHorz0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.070.0759.2659.260.010.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.070.0717.8617.86-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0634.6234.62-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.060.0678.7978.790.040.04
TulaneCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
DrexelCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0414.8114.81-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.040.0444.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0493.1093.100.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.033.573.57-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00