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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Western Illinois

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:337.0
Current RPI:349
Expected SOS:292
Current SOS:343
Current Record:0-6
Expected Record:4-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-11
Current OOC Record:0-6
Expected OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC RPI:350
Expected OOC SOS:338



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-13238.00.01%
11-14241.20.04%
10-15270.20.21%
9-16288.20.69%
8-17305.22.17%
7-18317.86.18%
6-19327.812.52%
5-20335.119.52%
4-21340.522.14%
3-22344.219.65%
2-23346.811.75%
1-24348.24.29%
-0-25349.30.82%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Kansas St. (77.0)B12A82-55L0%0.0
11-16Southeast Missouri St. (267.5)OVCH71-74L0%0.0
11-19Eastern Illinois (230.7)OVCA73-64L0%0.0
11-26Miami OH (286.7)MACA81-72L0%0.0
11-29American (290.4)PatA57-50L0%0.0
12-3Chicago St. (273.9)WACH76-83L0%0.0
12-10Eastern Illinois (230.7)OVCH0-035%-4.7
12-17Milwaukee (255.6)HorzA0-028%-7.1
12-19Purdue (28.0)B10A0-00%-32.2
12-29Fort Wayne (115.6)SumA0-06%-18.4
12-31IUPUI (158.9)SumA0-010%-15.1
1-4South Dakota St. (240.0)SumH0-033%-5.1
1-7Oral Roberts (290.8)SumH0-047%-0.8
1-11Denver (246.0)SumA0-019%-10.4
1-14Nebraska Omaha (145.1)SumA0-09%-15.9
1-21North Dakota St. (147.0)SumH0-023%-9.0
1-25South Dakota (217.7)SumA0-018%-10.8
1-28IUPUI (158.9)SumH0-023%-8.9
2-1South Dakota St. (240.0)SumA0-017%-11.4
2-4Nebraska Omaha (145.1)SumH0-021%-9.6
2-8Oral Roberts (290.8)SumA0-028%-7.1
2-14Denver (246.0)SumH0-037%-4.1
2-18North Dakota St. (147.0)SumA0-010%-15.3
2-23South Dakota (217.7)SumH0-035%-4.5
2-25Fort Wayne (115.6)SumH0-016%-12.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western IllinoisSum28.7426.530.0016.11-28.74-17.98
South Dakota St.Sum0.005.0325.0036.99-0.00-1.31
IUPUISum0.005.0337.5049.21-0.00-0.08
Nebraska OmahaSum0.525.0342.8652.81-0.070.28
Fort WayneSum0.605.0271.4368.710.261.88
DenverSum0.005.0042.8643.01-0.00-0.70
South DakotaSum0.005.0050.0044.010.00-0.60
Oral RobertsSum0.005.000.0019.21-0.00-3.08
North Dakota St.Sum0.004.9957.1456.970.000.70
Eastern IllinoisOVC8.334.0750.0047.480.00-0.21
Southeast Missouri St.OVC8.332.1933.3336.36-2.78-0.60
Miami OHMAC8.332.1533.3328.46-2.78-0.92
Kansas St.B128.332.0785.7157.955.950.33
MilwaukeeHorz0.002.0728.5731.25-0.00-0.78
Chicago St.WAC8.332.040.0019.78-8.33-1.23
AmericanPat8.332.000.0028.90-8.33-0.84
PurdueB100.002.0075.0074.530.000.98
Austin PeayOVC0.600.4033.3336.74-0.20-0.11
UMKCWAC0.600.3262.5052.330.150.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.2950.0041.990.00-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.000.2950.0061.240.000.06
Missouri St.MVC0.000.2560.0058.590.000.04
Montana St.BSky0.000.2450.0062.380.000.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.2275.0054.670.000.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.600.2157.1453.990.090.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1850.0050.840.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.430.1842.8645.44-0.20-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1850.0056.740.000.02
OaklandHorz0.830.1885.7177.150.600.10
IndianaB100.600.1787.5074.490.450.09
MontanaBSky0.000.1725.0048.10-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.1775.0066.170.000.06
UC IrvineBW0.000.1750.0054.070.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.1585.7166.190.000.05
North DakotaBSky0.000.1533.3354.32-0.000.01
TroySB1.190.1542.8636.19-0.17-0.04
BradleyMVC1.190.1542.8627.96-0.17-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1560.0067.760.000.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1425.0027.53-0.00-0.06
Notre DameACC0.830.14100.0077.380.830.08
Saint LouisA101.120.1428.5723.78-0.48-0.08
BelmontOVC0.000.1450.0064.350.000.04
NavyPat0.000.1425.0037.38-0.00-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.600.1471.4357.970.260.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1466.6757.300.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1428.5733.77-0.00-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1416.6738.58-0.00-0.03
DetroitHorz0.000.140.0021.22-0.00-0.08
IllinoisB100.600.1462.5050.710.150.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1428.5741.52-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.140.0019.67-0.00-0.08
IdahoBSky0.000.1450.0052.760.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.1457.1454.360.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.140.0022.01-0.00-0.08
WyomingMWC0.000.1466.6754.050.000.01
BaylorB120.000.14100.0076.590.000.07
IowaB100.000.1437.5037.74-0.00-0.03
Iowa St.B120.000.1471.4368.070.000.05
Michigan St.B100.000.1455.5658.610.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.1471.4348.350.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1150.0046.410.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1185.7170.060.000.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.600.1122.2221.23-0.33-0.06
MissouriSEC0.000.1157.1442.530.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.1166.6735.430.00-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1171.4356.250.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.1142.8647.11-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.600.1116.6744.34-0.40-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1071.4358.920.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1085.7174.990.000.05
MichiganB100.000.1075.0066.460.000.03
AkronMAC0.600.1071.4368.980.260.04
Texas A&MSEC0.600.1066.6766.180.200.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1083.3379.850.000.06
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1057.1459.280.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.1083.3371.480.000.04
NebraskaB100.000.1057.1444.890.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.600.1062.5051.790.150.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1042.8638.17-0.00-0.02
MarylandB101.120.1087.5059.330.840.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1028.5731.44-0.00-0.04
Green BayHorz0.520.1042.8651.95-0.070.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0775.0066.370.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0742.8660.54-0.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0742.8658.58-0.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0742.8646.48-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0742.8650.11-0.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0025.23-0.00-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0775.0070.180.000.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0020.75-0.00-0.04
SeattleWAC0.000.0716.6739.49-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0728.5728.24-0.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.0750.0045.970.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0722.2238.49-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0771.4356.260.000.01
XavierBE0.000.0787.5070.890.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0076.630.000.04
Little RockSB0.000.0766.6761.330.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0775.0066.410.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0775.0048.500.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0775.0049.180.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0775.0071.470.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0750.0048.210.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.070.0024.64-0.00-0.04
TulsaAmer0.000.0750.0038.050.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.070.0033.85-0.00-0.02
USCP120.000.07100.0076.680.000.04
WisconsinB100.830.0777.7876.040.460.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.0757.1448.500.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.070.0023.69-0.00-0.04
ArmyPat0.000.0742.8650.09-0.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0742.8654.90-0.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0766.6766.340.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0733.3352.21-0.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0785.7162.220.000.02
ColgatePat0.000.0712.5029.71-0.00-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0771.4355.160.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.07100.0091.920.000.06
HofstraCAA0.000.0762.5043.220.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0737.5047.37-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0785.7178.280.000.04
LafayettePat0.000.0733.3333.36-0.00-0.02
LehighPat0.000.0742.8666.67-0.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0742.8645.94-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0716.6739.20-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0742.8645.56-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0733.3352.84-0.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0750.0054.070.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0750.0041.490.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.070.0032.52-0.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0716.6749.65-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0775.0086.710.000.05
VillanovaBE0.000.07100.0084.840.000.05
KansasB120.000.0687.5075.860.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0671.4354.310.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0666.6746.420.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.06100.0061.680.000.02
TexasB120.000.0657.1438.680.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0687.5062.040.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0685.7183.660.000.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.600.0412.5030.39-0.45-0.01
DelawareCAA0.600.0350.0041.990.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.600.0325.0031.41-0.30-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.47-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0357.1458.840.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.600.0333.3339.94-0.20-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0337.5047.91-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.0385.7176.240.000.02
WagnerNEC0.600.0333.3354.47-0.200.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.03-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0375.0055.500.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0362.5040.460.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.450.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.520.0357.1429.790.07-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0371.4360.540.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0333.3352.11-0.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0060.620.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.520.0314.2942.67-0.37-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0387.5075.590.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0017.61-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0387.5068.020.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0350.0049.780.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.95-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0387.5068.610.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0314.2931.28-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.520.0322.2241.71-0.29-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0385.7145.370.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0340.0041.12-0.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0342.8650.06-0.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0342.8628.98-0.00-0.01