live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Western Illinois

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:298.1
Current RPI:318
Expected SOS:239
Current SOS:324
Current Record:3-5
Expected Record:8-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-7
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:292
Expected OOC SOS:235



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-10135.30.03%
14-11164.20.13%
13-12189.70.50%
12-13217.21.92%
11-14240.85.28%
10-15265.611.47%
9-16286.217.72%
8-17303.121.12%
7-18315.820.30%
6-19325.313.58%
5-20332.46.12%
4-21338.81.69%
3-22343.70.13%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Pacific (203.7)WCCH71-73L0%0.0
11-17Illinois Chicago (306.2)HorzA67-64L0%0.0
11-22Southeastern Louisiana (240.5)SlndH60-57W100%0.0
11-25William & Mary (105.9)CAAA83-49L0%0.0
12-4Akron (153.8)MACA73-49L0%0.0
12-7Cleveland St. (149.4)HorzA76-54L0%0.0
12-11Idaho (223.5)BSkyH78-75W100%0.0
12-13Alabama St. (227.4)SWACH78-68W100%0.0
12-23Memphis (89.4)AmerA0-06%-18.4
1-2IPFW (191.8)SumH0-038%-3.6
1-4Nebraska Omaha (222.4)SumH0-040%-2.9
1-7South Dakota St. (160.2)SumA0-014%-12.9
1-10Oral Roberts (214.2)SumH0-046%-1.1
1-14Denver (189.8)SumA0-014%-12.7
1-16North Dakota St. (169.7)SumA0-014%-12.6
1-22South Dakota (243.3)SumH0-045%-1.5
1-30IUPUI (289.2)SumH0-062%3.7
2-1North Dakota St. (169.7)SumH0-038%-3.7
2-5South Dakota (243.3)SumA0-019%-10.5
2-12Oral Roberts (214.2)SumA0-020%-10.1
2-14Nebraska Omaha (222.4)SumA0-016%-11.8
2-18South Dakota St. (160.2)SumH0-037%-4.0
2-21Denver (189.8)SumH0-037%-3.8
2-26IUPUI (289.2)SumA0-033%-5.3
2-28IPFW (191.8)SumA0-014%-12.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western IllinoisSum28.1726.4632.1428.82-10.06-11.21
South Dakota St.Sum0.785.0857.1453.070.110.31
Oral RobertsSum0.005.0344.4442.95-0.00-0.71
North Dakota St.Sum0.315.0255.5654.670.030.47
IUPUISum0.005.0120.0024.81-0.00-2.52
DenverSum0.005.0144.4453.64-0.000.36
South DakotaSum0.005.0120.0038.83-0.00-1.12
Nebraska OmahaSum0.005.0037.5050.21-0.000.02
IPFWSum0.004.9957.1454.650.000.46
IdahoBSky6.252.1442.8651.52-0.890.07
AkronMAC6.252.0855.5654.980.690.21
MemphisAmer0.002.0750.0057.860.000.33
Cleveland St.Horz6.252.0728.5746.59-2.68-0.14
Illinois ChicagoHorz6.252.0711.1118.01-4.86-1.32
Alabama St.SWAC6.252.0040.0066.58-1.250.66
PacificWCC6.252.0033.3336.14-2.08-0.55
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd6.252.0012.5044.97-4.69-0.20
William & MaryCAA6.252.0050.0054.570.000.18
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.3433.3334.02-0.00-0.11
North DakotaBSky0.520.3025.0033.19-0.26-0.10
Idaho St.BSky0.450.2516.6733.31-0.30-0.08
MontanaBSky0.000.2225.0050.98-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.2225.0027.78-0.00-0.10
ValparaisoHorz0.000.2180.0069.650.000.08
DetroitHorz0.000.2150.0053.430.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.2150.0051.120.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.310.1871.4360.170.130.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1728.5726.77-0.00-0.08
Weber St.BSky0.000.1528.5742.20-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.1422.2227.10-0.00-0.07
PurdueB100.000.1472.7363.400.000.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.1471.4356.890.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1442.8638.69-0.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.1422.2242.30-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.1471.4360.450.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1411.1129.23-0.00-0.06
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1490.0079.360.000.08
GonzagaWCC0.350.1490.0091.020.280.11
BuffaloMAC0.000.1475.0069.770.000.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.140.0015.96-0.00-0.09
Green BayHorz0.000.1471.4377.180.000.07
OaklandHorz0.000.1430.0031.51-0.00-0.05
StanfordP120.000.1471.4361.160.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.1455.5653.100.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.1455.5657.230.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.140.0039.09-0.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.310.1350.0030.140.00-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.310.1111.1130.96-0.24-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.110.0038.78-0.00-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.520.1142.8644.96-0.07-0.01
UtahP120.520.1177.7880.520.290.07
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1144.4449.60-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.1112.5024.45-0.00-0.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1133.3359.83-0.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.910.1155.5639.260.10-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1175.0070.380.000.04
Colorado St.MWC0.450.11100.0077.640.450.06
WoffordSC0.450.1175.0077.280.220.06
OklahomaB120.350.1077.7868.030.190.04
HowardMEAC0.450.1033.3343.17-0.15-0.01
RichmondA100.450.1050.0056.190.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.450.1062.5054.950.110.01
BryantNEC0.310.1028.5746.92-0.13-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.100.0014.53-0.00-0.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1050.0074.020.000.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.390.1075.0066.870.200.03
ToledoMAC0.390.1055.5655.960.040.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.1033.3347.31-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.1066.6770.530.000.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1033.3334.47-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1044.4469.77-0.000.04
TulaneAmer0.350.1087.5054.670.260.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.080.0032.02-0.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.080.0032.62-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.080.0011.08-0.00-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0810.0040.34-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0810.0018.39-0.00-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.000.080.0034.13-0.00-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0811.1145.10-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0833.3332.44-0.00-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.0844.4447.41-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0877.7851.200.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0844.4449.79-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0862.5065.100.000.02
IowaB100.000.0872.7362.660.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.080.0013.85-0.00-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0830.0028.28-0.00-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.080.0023.06-0.00-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0850.0032.740.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.0811.1129.36-0.00-0.03
TexasB120.000.0890.0081.780.000.05
BYUWCC0.000.0766.6767.890.000.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0750.0045.540.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0725.0037.29-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0766.6776.390.000.04
ElonCAA0.000.0737.5048.77-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0777.7877.550.000.04
James MadisonCAA0.000.0766.6753.260.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0728.5722.66-0.00-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.0775.0061.240.000.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.390.0725.0033.31-0.20-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0775.0049.190.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0757.1447.350.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0742.8643.01-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0754.5557.870.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0750.0041.450.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0766.6751.390.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0740.0058.50-0.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.070.008.21-0.00-0.06
Air ForceMWC0.000.0757.1459.520.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0011.59-0.00-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0775.0070.980.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0760.0038.270.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0742.8652.83-0.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0755.5647.220.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0744.4431.46-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.0766.6742.930.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0740.0065.07-0.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0775.0050.490.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0755.5631.620.00-0.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0737.5045.72-0.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0750.0053.970.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.390.0750.0033.140.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0760.0062.380.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0722.2230.22-0.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.0772.7351.370.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0744.4440.58-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0755.5639.850.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0771.4350.790.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0733.3341.10-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0777.7873.060.000.03
MarshallCUSA0.390.0725.0038.94-0.20-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0733.3332.65-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0720.0026.45-0.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.0720.0020.57-0.00-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0742.8655.73-0.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0771.4372.840.000.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0725.0049.05-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.070.0019.38-0.00-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.070.0035.83-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0750.0037.020.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0039.43-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.690.0750.0050.190.000.00
XavierBE0.000.0780.0071.140.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.350.0788.8964.140.270.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0750.0048.280.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0762.5078.030.000.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0675.0065.380.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0657.1456.000.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0637.5037.27-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0683.3358.570.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.520.0477.7871.340.290.02
Boise St.MWC0.390.0475.0067.800.200.01
FloridaSEC0.450.0460.0064.780.090.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0430.0028.54-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.450.0462.5055.430.110.00
MercerSC0.450.0437.5041.09-0.11-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0470.0071.650.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0440.0049.29-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0487.5080.890.000.02
RiceCUSA0.450.0416.6725.01-0.30-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0416.6727.17-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.390.0485.7161.820.280.01
UC IrvineBW0.450.0437.5046.90-0.11-0.00
WashingtonP120.450.04100.0070.570.450.02
Washington St.P120.390.0440.0028.86-0.08-0.02
DaytonA100.310.0377.7869.570.170.01
DePaulBE0.310.0366.6739.030.10-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0333.3339.81-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.310.0340.0044.19-0.06-0.00
IonaMAAC0.390.0366.6772.270.130.02
LouisvilleACC0.390.03100.0085.390.390.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.310.0366.6754.790.100.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0366.6744.720.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.390.0318.1827.73-0.25-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.310.0360.0050.220.060.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.310.0371.4367.660.130.01
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.110.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0086.080.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0322.2245.74-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.310.0370.0064.560.120.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0383.3363.180.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0383.3366.520.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0320.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0366.6773.810.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2932.21-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.310.0390.0075.840.250.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.310.0344.4444.49-0.03-0.00
Penn St.B100.310.0390.9154.340.260.00
South CarolinaSEC0.310.0362.5064.900.080.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.350.0344.4447.24-0.04-0.00
UMBCAE0.310.0310.0021.35-0.25-0.02
USCP120.310.0360.0037.100.06-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.350.0366.6772.150.120.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3351.71-0.000.00
BaylorB120.000.0388.8975.070.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0054.040.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0366.6765.150.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0387.5085.930.000.02