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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Western Illinois

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:122.0
Current RPI:122
Expected SOS:291
Current SOS:291
Current Record:20-8
Expected Record:20-8
Current Conf Record:14-4
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-1
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:186
Expected OOC SOS:307



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-8122.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14SIU Edwardsville (304.0)OVCA62-50L0%0.0
11-16Buffalo (215.0)MACN58-67W100%0.0
11-17Evansville (106.0)MVCA49-44L0%0.0
11-18Yale (198.0)IvyN59-47W100%0.0
11-24Savannah St. (166.0)MEACA39-38L0%0.0
11-29South Dakota (240.0)SumA71-73W100%0.0
12-1Missouri Kansas City (284.0)SumA63-68W100%0.0
12-5Eastern Illinois (276.0)OVCA45-57W100%0.0
12-8SIU Edwardsville (304.0)OVCH55-38W100%0.0
12-18Illinois Chicago (169.0)HorzH70-54W100%0.0
12-27Oakland (152.0)SumH73-63W100%0.0
12-29IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)SumH62-50W100%0.0
1-2Savannah St. (166.0)MEACH39-35W100%0.0
1-5IUPUI (326.0)SumH57-53W100%0.0
1-12Nebraska Omaha (285.0)SumA74-89W100%0.0
1-17South Dakota St. (62.0)SumH53-59L0%0.0
1-19North Dakota St. (72.0)SumH50-42W100%0.0
1-24IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)SumA40-43W100%0.0
1-26Oakland (152.0)SumA67-60L0%0.0
2-2IUPUI (326.0)SumA59-68W100%0.0
2-7Nebraska Omaha (285.0)SumH68-50W100%0.0
2-14North Dakota St. (72.0)SumA36-49W100%0.0
2-16South Dakota St. (62.0)SumA64-55L0%0.0
2-23Cleveland St. (199.0)HorzH54-60L0%0.0
2-28Missouri Kansas City (284.0)SumH53-50W100%0.0
3-2South Dakota (240.0)SumH61-59W100%0.0
3-9South Dakota (240.0)SumN54-53W100%0.0
3-11North Dakota St. (72.0)SumN43-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western IllinoisSum26.6926.6973.4473.4412.5112.51
North Dakota St.Sum6.376.3775.0075.003.193.19
South DakotaSum6.246.2432.0032.00-2.25-2.25
South Dakota St.Sum4.734.7368.9768.971.791.79
IUPU Fort WayneSum4.674.6748.2848.28-0.16-0.16
Missouri Kansas CitySum4.614.6124.1424.14-2.39-2.39
IUPUISum4.584.5814.2914.29-3.27-3.27
OaklandSum4.584.5846.4346.43-0.33-0.33
Nebraska OmahaSum4.524.5237.0437.04-1.17-1.17
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC3.633.6326.0926.09-1.74-1.74
Savannah St.MEAC3.573.5755.1755.170.370.37
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.991.9936.6736.67-0.53-0.53
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.881.8853.3353.330.130.13
Cleveland St.Horz1.871.8735.7135.71-0.53-0.53
BuffaloMAC1.851.8538.7138.71-0.42-0.42
EvansvilleMVC1.841.8453.3353.330.120.12
YaleIvy1.841.8442.8642.86-0.26-0.26
Morehead St.OVC0.430.4341.9441.94-0.07-0.07
Ball St.MAC0.340.3448.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.330.3353.1253.120.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.320.3248.3948.39-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.300.3078.1278.120.170.17
Murray St.OVC0.290.2965.5265.520.090.09
North DakotaBSky0.260.2646.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.GWC0.220.2225.0025.00-0.11-0.11
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.220.2242.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.220.2213.7913.79-0.16-0.16
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.210.2167.8667.860.080.08
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.210.2120.0020.00-0.12-0.12
Youngstown St.Horz0.210.2148.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.200.2036.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Utah ValleyGWC0.200.2035.7135.71-0.06-0.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.200.2020.6920.69-0.12-0.12
Tennessee MartinOVC0.200.2025.0025.00-0.10-0.10
Tennessee TechOVC0.190.1937.0437.04-0.05-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.180.1837.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.180.1838.4638.46-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.180.1862.5062.500.040.04
BradleyMVC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.170.1780.6580.650.110.11
Miami OHMAC0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
BelmontOVC0.160.1680.0080.000.090.09
St. LouisA100.160.1681.8281.820.100.10
Tennessee St.OVC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
Kansas St.B120.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
Iowa St.B120.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
Indiana St.MVC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.120.1229.6329.63-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
ToledoMAC0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
OhioMAC0.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
MarshallCUSA0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.127.147.14-0.10-0.10
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
NavyPat0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1252.9452.940.010.01
Ohio St.B100.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1214.2914.29-0.08-0.08
Kent St.MAC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1057.6957.690.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.100.1093.7593.750.080.08
IowaB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
WyomingMWC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
MichiganB100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
PrincetonIvy0.090.0959.2659.260.020.02
FloridaSEC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
ButlerA100.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.090.0981.8281.820.050.05
James MadisonCAA0.090.0958.8258.820.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
Notre DameBE0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
TowsonCAA0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
BrownIvy0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DenverWAC0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
HarvardIvy0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
NebraskaB100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
WisconsinB100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
LamarSlnd0.060.069.689.68-0.05-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
Michigan St.B100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
North TexasSB0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
PittsburghBE0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Central FloridaCUSA0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
CreightonMVC0.060.0679.4179.410.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0610.0010.00-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleBE0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
MarquetteBE0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Middle TennesseeSB0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
North FloridaASun0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
GramblingSWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Old DominionCAA0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
VermontAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MercerASun0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
TempleA100.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01