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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Western Illinois

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:262.0
Current RPI:262
Expected SOS:179
Current SOS:179
Current Record:7-17
Expected Record:7-17
Current Conf Record:3-13
Expected Conf Record:3-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-2
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC RPI:196
Expected OOC SOS:314



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-17262.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Wisconsin (43.0)B10A67-69W100%0.0
11-17Illinois Chicago (346.0)HorzH84-57W100%0.0
11-21Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCA63-83W100%0.0
11-28Creighton (100.0)BEA97-67L0%0.0
12-7Iowa (28.0)B10A90-56L0%0.0
12-12Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCH64-57W100%0.0
12-19Chicago St. (348.0)WACA77-70L0%0.0
12-21Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCA72-67L0%0.0
1-1Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumA82-80L0%0.0
1-3South Dakota St. (29.0)SumA63-59L0%0.0
1-9IUPUI (189.0)SumH60-67L0%0.0
1-14Denver (188.0)SumH69-76L0%0.0
1-16Oral Roberts (148.0)SumH68-77L0%0.0
1-20South Dakota (197.0)SumA76-67L0%0.0
1-23North Dakota St. (120.0)SumH52-65L0%0.0
1-29IUPUI (189.0)SumA69-67L0%0.0
1-31IPFW (71.0)SumA88-67L0%0.0
2-3Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumH83-76W100%0.0
2-11Denver (188.0)SumA60-63W100%0.0
2-13Oral Roberts (148.0)SumA72-66L0%0.0
2-17North Dakota St. (120.0)SumA63-54L0%0.0
2-20South Dakota St. (29.0)SumH67-87L0%0.0
2-25IPFW (71.0)SumH75-87L0%0.0
2-27South Dakota (197.0)SumH90-76W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western IllinoisSum26.4526.4530.5630.56-10.29-10.29
South Dakota St.Sum5.345.3475.8675.862.762.76
North Dakota St.Sum5.335.3355.1755.170.550.55
DenverSum5.275.2751.7251.720.180.18
IPFWSum5.275.2768.9768.972.002.00
Nebraska OmahaSum5.265.2655.5655.560.580.58
IUPUISum5.235.2334.4834.48-1.62-1.62
South DakotaSum5.195.1939.2939.29-1.11-1.11
Oral RobertsSum5.195.1937.0437.04-1.35-1.35
Eastern IllinoisOVC4.244.2442.3142.31-0.65-0.65
CreightonBE2.182.1854.8454.840.210.21
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.152.1543.3343.33-0.29-0.29
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.122.1211.1111.11-1.65-1.65
WisconsinB102.122.1264.5264.520.610.61
IowaB102.122.1266.6766.670.710.71
Chicago St.WAC2.082.080.000.00-2.08-2.08
IllinoisB100.340.3444.1244.12-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.310.3132.1432.14-0.11-0.11
MinnesotaB100.310.3125.8125.81-0.15-0.15
IndianaB100.310.3178.1278.120.170.17
Austin PeayOVC0.280.2848.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.280.2838.7138.71-0.06-0.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.240.2458.0658.060.040.04
MarquetteBE0.230.2360.6160.610.050.05
Murray St.OVC0.220.2251.7251.720.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.220.2254.8454.840.020.02
Green BayHorz0.220.2263.6463.640.060.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.220.2221.4321.43-0.12-0.12
Indiana St.MVC0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.200.2074.1974.190.100.10
PurdueB100.200.2076.4776.470.110.11
Wright St.Horz0.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.180.1880.0080.000.110.11
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.180.1872.4172.410.080.08
Cleveland St.Horz0.180.1823.3323.33-0.09-0.09
Illinois St.MVC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.1511.1111.11-0.12-0.12
DetroitHorz0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1479.3179.310.080.08
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.140.1418.5218.52-0.09-0.09
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
WyomingMWC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
DrakeMVC0.140.1420.0020.00-0.08-0.08
OklahomaB120.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
Iowa St.B120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1374.1974.190.070.07
ButlerBE0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Michigan St.B100.130.1385.2985.290.090.09
NebraskaB100.130.1347.0647.06-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
OaklandHorz0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
NorthwesternB100.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
BradleyMVC0.100.1012.9012.90-0.07-0.07
San DiegoWCC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
MichiganB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
MarylandB100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
RutgersB100.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
BelmontOVC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0764.2964.290.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
LSUSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
TulsaAmer0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
MontanaBSky0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
NavyPat0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
StetsonASun0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
UC DavisBW0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.070.0775.7675.760.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
UTSACUSA0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
St. John'sBE0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
XavierBE0.070.0784.3884.380.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01