Western Illinois

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	122.0
Current RPI:	122
Expected SOS:	291
Current SOS:	291
Current Record:	20-8
Expected Record:	20-8
Current Conf Record:	14-4
Expected Conf Record:	14-4
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-1
Current OOC Record:	6-4
Expected OOC Record:	6-4
Expected OOC RPI:	186
Expected OOC SOS:	307

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-8	122.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	SIU Edwardsville (304.0)	OVC	A	62-50	L	0%
11-16	Buffalo (215.0)	MAC	N	58-67	W	100%
11-17	Evansville (106.0)	MVC	A	49-44	L	0%
11-18	Yale (198.0)	Ivy	N	59-47	W	100%
11-24	Savannah St. (166.0)	MEAC	A	39-38	L	0%
11-29	South Dakota (240.0)	Sum	A	71-73	W	100%
12-1	Missouri Kansas City (284.0)	Sum	A	63-68	W	100%
12-5	Eastern Illinois (276.0)	OVC	A	45-57	W	100%
12-8	SIU Edwardsville (304.0)	OVC	H	55-38	W	100%
12-18	Illinois Chicago (169.0)	Horz	H	70-54	W	100%
12-27	Oakland (152.0)	Sum	H	73-63	W	100%
12-29	IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)	Sum	H	62-50	W	100%
1-2	Savannah St. (166.0)	MEAC	H	39-35	W	100%
1-5	IUPUI (326.0)	Sum	H	57-53	W	100%
1-12	Nebraska Omaha (285.0)	Sum	A	74-89	W	100%
1-17	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	H	53-59	L	0%
1-19	North Dakota St. (72.0)	Sum	H	50-42	W	100%
1-24	IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)	Sum	A	40-43	W	100%
1-26	Oakland (152.0)	Sum	A	67-60	L	0%
2-2	IUPUI (326.0)	Sum	A	59-68	W	100%
2-7	Nebraska Omaha (285.0)	Sum	H	68-50	W	100%
2-14	North Dakota St. (72.0)	Sum	A	36-49	W	100%
2-16	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	A	64-55	L	0%
2-23	Cleveland St. (199.0)	Horz	H	54-60	L	0%
2-28	Missouri Kansas City (284.0)	Sum	H	53-50	W	100%
3-2	South Dakota (240.0)	Sum	H	61-59	W	100%
3-9	South Dakota (240.0)	Sum	N	54-53	W	100%
3-11	North Dakota St. (72.0)	Sum	N	43-55	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Western Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Western Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Western Illinois	Sum	26.69	26.69	73.44	73.44	12.51	12.51
North Dakota St.	Sum	6.37	6.37	75.00	75.00	3.19	3.19
South Dakota	Sum	6.24	6.24	32.00	32.00	-2.25	-2.25
South Dakota St.	Sum	4.73	4.73	68.97	68.97	1.79	1.79
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	4.67	4.67	48.28	48.28	-0.16	-0.16
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	4.61	4.61	24.14	24.14	-2.39	-2.39
IUPUI	Sum	4.58	4.58	14.29	14.29	-3.27	-3.27
Oakland	Sum	4.58	4.58	46.43	46.43	-0.33	-0.33
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	4.52	4.52	37.04	37.04	-1.17	-1.17
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	3.63	3.63	26.09	26.09	-1.74	-1.74
Savannah St.	MEAC	3.57	3.57	55.17	55.17	0.37	0.37
Eastern Illinois	OVC	1.99	1.99	36.67	36.67	-0.53	-0.53
Illinois Chicago	Horz	1.88	1.88	53.33	53.33	0.13	0.13
Cleveland St.	Horz	1.87	1.87	35.71	35.71	-0.53	-0.53
Buffalo	MAC	1.85	1.85	38.71	38.71	-0.42	-0.42
Evansville	MVC	1.84	1.84	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Yale	Ivy	1.84	1.84	42.86	42.86	-0.26	-0.26
Morehead St.	OVC	0.43	0.43	41.94	41.94	-0.07	-0.07
Ball St.	MAC	0.34	0.34	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.33	0.33	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.32	0.32	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.30	0.30	78.12	78.12	0.17	0.17
Murray St.	OVC	0.29	0.29	65.52	65.52	0.09	0.09
North Dakota	BSky	0.26	0.26	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.22	0.22	25.00	25.00	-0.11	-0.11
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.22	0.22	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.22	0.22	13.79	13.79	-0.16	-0.16
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.21	0.21	67.86	67.86	0.08	0.08
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.21	0.21	20.00	20.00	-0.12	-0.12
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.21	0.21	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.20	0.20	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Utah Valley	GWC	0.20	0.20	35.71	35.71	-0.06	-0.06
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.20	0.20	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.20	0.20	20.69	20.69	-0.12	-0.12
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.20	0.20	25.00	25.00	-0.10	-0.10
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.19	0.19	37.04	37.04	-0.05	-0.05
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.18	0.18	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.18	0.18	38.46	38.46	-0.04	-0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.18	0.18	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.17	0.17	80.65	80.65	0.11	0.11
Miami OH	MAC	0.17	0.17	26.67	26.67	-0.08	-0.08
Belmont	OVC	0.16	0.16	80.00	80.00	0.09	0.09
St. Louis	A10	0.16	0.16	81.82	81.82	0.10	0.10
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.15	0.15	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
Iowa St.	B12	0.15	0.15	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Indiana St.	MVC	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.14	0.14	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.12	0.12	29.63	29.63	-0.05	-0.05
Detroit	Horz	0.12	0.12	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.12	0.12	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
Marshall	CUSA	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.12	0.12	7.14	7.14	-0.10	-0.10
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.12	0.12	23.33	23.33	-0.06	-0.06
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.12	0.12	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	14.29	14.29	-0.08	-0.08
Kent St.	MAC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.10	0.10	93.75	93.75	0.08	0.08
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Princeton	Ivy	0.09	0.09	59.26	59.26	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Robert Morris	NEC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Butler	A10	0.09	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Western Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.09	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
James Madison	CAA	0.09	0.09	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.09	0.09	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Notre Dame	BE	0.09	0.09	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Towson	CAA	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	WAC	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.05	-0.05
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Albany	AE	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.00	10.00	-0.05	-0.05
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.06	0.06	79.31	79.31	0.03	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01