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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Western Illinois

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:297.6
Current RPI:262
Expected SOS:286
Current SOS:277
Current Record:6-8
Expected Record:8-15
Current Conf Record:1-4
Expected Conf Record:3-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:252
Expected OOC SOS:338



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-10198.80.04%
12-11220.30.45%
11-12241.32.73%
10-13261.99.74%
9-14282.522.44%
8-15301.632.20%
7-16317.824.66%
6-17329.67.73%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Eastern Illinois (269.1)OVCH56-54W100%0.0
11-22SIU Edwardsville (271.7)OVCA67-69W100%0.0
11-25Iowa St. (107.1)B12A70-45L0%0.0
11-28IUPUI (300.2)HorzH90-77W100%0.0
12-2Miami OH (185.4)MACH73-76L0%0.0
12-6American (307.8)PatH69-56W100%0.0
12-9Milwaukee (242.2)HorzH90-69W100%0.0
12-19Eastern Illinois (269.1)OVCA78-77L0%0.0
12-21Butler (37.4)BEA107-46L0%0.0
1-3South Dakota (99.3)SumA62-50L0%0.0
1-6Oral Roberts (220.9)SumA81-66L0%0.0
1-11Nebraska Omaha (250.1)SumH66-87L0%0.0
1-17Fort Wayne (189.6)SumH75-74W100%0.0
1-20South Dakota St. (65.2)SumH70-98L0%0.0
1-25Denver (271.6)SumA0-026%-7.1
1-27North Dakota St. (167.4)SumA0-011%-13.7
2-1South Dakota (99.3)SumH0-014%-11.9
2-3Oral Roberts (220.9)SumH0-041%-2.5
2-8Nebraska Omaha (250.1)SumA0-026%-7.0
2-14Fort Wayne (189.6)SumA0-014%-11.9
2-17South Dakota St. (65.2)SumA0-04%-19.1
2-22North Dakota St. (167.4)SumH0-026%-7.3
2-24Denver (271.6)SumH0-048%-0.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western IllinoisSum26.5526.5537.9331.87-6.41-9.63
Fort WayneSum4.045.3955.5652.390.450.26
Nebraska OmahaSum3.955.3221.0523.50-2.29-2.82
North Dakota St.Sum0.385.3144.4447.80-0.04-0.23
Oral RobertsSum3.955.3126.3228.77-1.87-2.26
South DakotaSum3.845.3172.2270.731.712.20
South Dakota St.Sum3.755.3170.5970.981.542.23
DenverSum0.475.3133.3334.27-0.16-1.67
Eastern IllinoisOVC7.244.4626.6732.64-3.38-1.55
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC3.762.4638.8933.93-0.84-0.79
IUPUIHorz3.962.3729.4130.97-1.63-0.90
MilwaukeeHorz3.772.2947.3748.75-0.20-0.06
Miami OHMAC3.672.2543.7539.32-0.46-0.48
Iowa St.B123.662.2158.8245.400.65-0.20
AmericanPat3.572.1727.7829.12-1.59-0.91
ButlerBE3.572.1765.0061.841.070.51
Missouri St.MVC0.190.3270.0068.300.080.12
OaklandHorz0.270.3261.9065.160.060.10
DrakeMVC0.370.3255.0048.980.04-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.270.2850.0047.660.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.410.2744.4446.00-0.05-0.02
BelmontOVC0.390.2771.4374.660.170.13
Youngstown St.Horz0.370.2721.0523.51-0.21-0.14
North DakotaBSky0.100.2429.4134.76-0.04-0.07
DetroitHorz0.280.2421.0525.97-0.16-0.11
Green BayHorz0.500.2425.0027.94-0.25-0.10
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.280.2442.1146.00-0.04-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.300.2470.5975.950.130.12
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.300.2442.1143.51-0.05-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.300.2426.3231.50-0.14-0.09
Tennessee St.OVC0.300.2435.2940.48-0.09-0.04
KansasB120.290.2384.2179.750.200.14
TCUB120.280.2373.6865.600.130.07
StetsonASun0.190.2033.3336.93-0.06-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.2057.8953.190.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.490.1923.5328.69-0.26-0.08
Wright St.Horz0.290.1968.4269.250.110.07
Kansas St.B120.280.1973.6862.720.130.05
MarquetteBE0.390.1968.4260.550.140.04
ColoradoP120.100.1660.0053.720.020.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.1657.8966.260.010.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.1658.8257.140.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.090.1611.7612.81-0.07-0.12
UC IrvineBW0.100.1630.0039.93-0.04-0.03
WyomingMWC0.100.1661.1156.830.020.02
UMKCWAC0.190.1621.0524.75-0.11-0.08
NavyPat0.090.1660.0055.160.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.1670.5969.630.040.06
AkronMAC0.090.1647.0644.91-0.01-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.300.1658.8249.760.05-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.200.1672.2274.930.090.08
Cleveland St.Horz0.190.1620.0023.34-0.11-0.08
Northern KentuckyHorz0.190.1666.6773.210.060.07
Oklahoma St.B120.190.1568.4254.090.070.01
OklahomaB120.090.1577.7867.910.050.05
BradleyMVC0.310.1265.0057.880.090.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.300.1231.5832.72-0.11-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1270.0068.220.000.04
South AlabamaSB0.300.1250.0045.870.00-0.01
IowaB100.200.1247.6244.02-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.190.1255.0053.320.020.01
PurdueB100.280.1190.4888.370.230.09
Western MichiganMAC0.190.1152.9452.230.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.190.1141.1839.16-0.03-0.02
West VirginiaB120.090.1184.2178.170.060.06
CreightonBE0.180.1175.0070.700.090.04
DePaulBE0.190.1142.1134.31-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.180.1163.1657.630.050.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0837.5031.760.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0833.3335.210.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0855.0050.370.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0811.1118.000.00-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.0816.6724.26-0.07-0.04
ArizonaP120.000.0880.0078.940.000.05
ArkansasSEC0.090.0868.4264.200.030.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.080.009.09-0.09-0.07
DukeACC0.090.0889.4785.210.070.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0877.7879.150.050.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0838.8946.05-0.02-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0810.0019.630.00-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0836.8444.11-0.02-0.01
IndianaB100.090.0857.8950.710.010.00
KentuckySEC0.090.0873.6867.970.040.03
LibertyBSth0.090.0850.0054.190.000.01
Little RockSB0.090.0822.2225.25-0.05-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0852.6355.290.000.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0863.6457.630.020.01
MississippiSEC0.100.0852.6345.860.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0872.2258.920.000.01
MontanaBSky0.090.0870.5973.150.040.04
NebraskaB100.210.0866.6759.820.070.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0811.1115.29-0.07-0.06
Penn St.B100.090.0861.9055.760.020.01
PepperdineWCC0.090.0810.5318.34-0.07-0.05
San Diego St.MWC0.210.0858.8262.820.040.02
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0841.1838.47-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0880.0078.850.000.05
UCLAP120.090.0865.0062.050.030.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0822.2227.330.00-0.04
UNLVMWC0.090.0873.6865.260.040.02
USCP120.000.0871.4368.280.000.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.0833.3334.100.00-0.03
Wichita St.Amer0.100.0878.9577.380.060.04
Ball St.MAC0.200.0861.1158.700.050.01
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0827.7831.11-0.04-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0838.8943.43-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.090.0878.9569.790.050.03
New MexicoMWC0.090.0845.0048.56-0.01-0.00
WashingtonP120.090.0870.0061.440.040.02
ArmyPat0.090.0761.1160.440.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0750.0053.260.000.00
BucknellPat0.090.0761.9068.020.020.03
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0762.5058.690.020.01
ColgatePat0.090.0750.0051.030.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0746.6746.970.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0726.3230.490.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.110.0744.4444.92-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.090.0722.2227.47-0.05-0.03
LehighPat0.090.0738.8944.75-0.02-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.090.0722.2228.66-0.05-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.0747.0648.410.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.190.0715.7920.91-0.13-0.04
MissouriSEC0.200.0766.6763.200.070.02
Ohio St.B100.190.0780.9576.520.120.04
BaylorB120.100.0761.1156.090.020.01
Texas TechB120.100.0778.9571.810.060.03
GeorgetownBE0.090.0768.4254.070.030.01
ProvidenceBE0.090.0770.0060.470.030.01
Seton HallBE0.090.0775.0067.890.040.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0747.3742.160.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.090.0794.7490.310.080.06
XavierBE0.090.0785.7180.080.060.04
GonzagaWCC0.100.0480.9583.260.060.03
Washington St.P120.100.0447.3741.44-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.090.040.003.07-0.09-0.04
ElonCAA0.090.0452.6351.080.000.00
FIUCUSA0.090.0435.2935.54-0.03-0.01
FordhamA100.110.0431.5829.06-0.04-0.02
HartfordAE0.110.0450.0045.930.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.090.0410.5327.29-0.07-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0433.3333.77-0.03-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.110.0440.0042.52-0.02-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0478.9574.190.050.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0442.1144.96-0.01-0.00
New HampshireAE0.090.0433.3340.08-0.03-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0455.0052.470.010.00
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0452.9459.250.010.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0466.6767.700.000.01
TulaneAmer0.110.0463.1657.890.030.01
ValparaisoMVC0.090.0447.3748.77-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.090.0425.0024.15-0.05-0.02
WagnerNEC0.090.0464.7164.570.030.01
WisconsinB100.090.0450.0046.300.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.0412.5025.45-0.07-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.100.0433.3337.23-0.03-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.100.0478.9576.990.060.02
Northern IowaMVC0.100.0444.4450.08-0.010.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0472.2268.930.000.01
FurmanSC0.090.0466.6768.540.030.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0416.6724.91-0.06-0.02
MarylandB100.090.0470.0065.250.030.01
Portland St.BSky0.090.0458.8263.210.020.01
PrincetonIvy0.090.0452.9460.220.010.01
Saint LouisA100.090.0447.3746.92-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.090.0463.1659.710.020.01