Western Illinois

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	181.7
Current RPI:	205
Expected SOS:	185
Current SOS:	259
Current Record:	10-9
Expected Record:	12-13
Current Conf Record:	7-6
Expected Conf Record:	9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	3.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-5
Current OOC Record:	3-3
Expected OOC Record:	3-4
Expected OOC RPI:	168
Expected OOC SOS:	253

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-9	115.7	0.03%
15-10	128.8	1.14%
14-11	143.0	7.14%
13-12	162.9	23.74%
12-13	183.4	38.83%
11-14	203.5	24.67%
10-15	222.5	4.44%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-12	Dayton (77.8)	A10	A	87-58	L	0%	0.0
11-17	Michigan (26.8)	B10	A	59-55	L	0%	0.0
11-26	North Dakota (265.8)	GWC	A	62-65	W	100%	0.0
12-1	North Dakota St. (127.4)	Sum	H	55-51	W	100%	0.0
12-3	South Dakota St. (58.0)	Sum	H	66-67	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Eastern Illinois (293.1)	OVC	H	64-48	W	100%	0.0
12-19	Illinois Chicago (292.7)	Horz	A	57-56	L	0%	0.0
12-22	North Dakota (265.8)	GWC	H	68-46	W	100%	0.0
12-30	IUPUI (246.0)	Sum	A	75-68	L	0%	0.0
1-3	South Dakota (281.9)	Sum	H	67-44	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Oakland (138.0)	Sum	A	61-71	W	100%	0.0
1-7	IUPU Fort Wayne (270.8)	Sum	A	65-75	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Oral Roberts (45.1)	Sum	H	70-71	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Southern Utah (233.2)	Sum	H	55-65	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Missouri Kansas City (242.4)	Sum	A	72-50	L	0%	0.0
1-21	South Dakota (281.9)	Sum	A	45-47	W	100%	0.0
1-28	IUPUI (246.0)	Sum	H	57-55	W	100%	0.0
2-2	IUPU Fort Wayne (270.8)	Sum	H	62-52	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Oakland (138.0)	Sum	H	70-74	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Southern Utah (233.2)	Sum	A	0-0		53%	0.8
2-11	Oral Roberts (45.1)	Sum	A	0-0		14%	-11.8
2-15	Missouri Kansas City (242.4)	Sum	H	0-0		79%	8.8
2-18	Evansville (145.2)	MVC	A	0-0		25%	-7.4
2-23	South Dakota St. (58.0)	Sum	A	0-0		14%	-11.8
2-25	North Dakota St. (127.4)	Sum	A	0-0		23%	-7.9

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Western Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Western Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Western Illinois	Sum	26.79	26.62	51.69	50.80	0.90	0.43
South Dakota St.	Sum	3.98	5.31	72.73	74.17	1.81	2.57
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	3.85	5.23	31.82	33.32	-1.40	-1.74
North Dakota St.	Sum	3.83	5.22	65.00	65.55	1.15	1.62
Oakland	Sum	6.27	5.19	47.83	50.30	-0.27	0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	3.77	5.16	80.00	79.92	2.26	3.09
IUPUI	Sum	6.21	5.15	33.33	34.45	-2.07	-1.60
Southern Utah	Sum	3.78	5.14	42.86	41.93	-0.54	-0.83
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	6.20	5.13	36.84	34.86	-1.63	-1.55
South Dakota	Sum	6.06	5.13	29.41	31.33	-2.50	-1.91
North Dakota	GWC	5.50	4.28	37.50	44.89	-1.37	-0.44
Illinois Chicago	Horz	2.69	2.11	25.00	26.32	-1.34	-1.00
Michigan	B10	2.74	2.07	68.18	65.17	1.00	0.63
Dayton	A10	2.69	2.04	59.09	59.61	0.49	0.39
Eastern Illinois	OVC	2.63	2.04	35.00	35.87	-0.79	-0.58
Evansville	MVC	0.06	2.04	47.83	46.03	-0.00	-0.16
Utah Valley	GWC	0.31	0.30	54.55	57.71	0.03	0.05
Valparaiso	Horz	0.41	0.29	65.22	63.55	0.12	0.08
Bradley	MVC	0.26	0.25	24.00	24.86	-0.14	-0.13
Chicago St.	GWC	0.27	0.24	9.09	12.82	-0.22	-0.18
Canisius	MAAC	0.33	0.23	17.39	19.76	-0.22	-0.14
Minnesota	B10	0.23	0.21	70.83	62.75	0.10	0.05
Western Michigan	MAC	0.16	0.21	40.91	42.97	-0.03	-0.03
Xavier	A10	0.23	0.21	65.22	63.69	0.07	0.06
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.21	0.20	25.00	28.48	-0.10	-0.08
Nebraska	B10	0.20	0.18	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.29	0.16	31.82	32.98	-0.11	-0.05
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.15	0.16	33.33	38.39	-0.05	-0.04
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.15	0.16	19.05	24.60	-0.09	-0.08
Morehead St.	OVC	0.20	0.15	45.45	47.09	-0.02	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.15	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.19	0.15	4.35	9.74	-0.17	-0.12
Longwood	ind	0.06	0.15	28.57	25.79	-0.02	-0.07
New Mexico	MWC	0.20	0.15	81.82	81.02	0.13	0.09
Troy	SB	0.12	0.15	28.57	30.17	-0.05	-0.06
UC Davis	BW	0.12	0.15	0.00	5.31	-0.12	-0.13
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.13	0.15	35.00	39.40	-0.04	-0.03
Purdue	B10	0.18	0.14	62.50	60.78	0.05	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.18	0.14	47.62	47.19	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.18	0.14	56.52	57.81	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.13	0.14	41.67	40.47	-0.02	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.00	0.14	62.50	62.07	0.00	0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.23	0.14	55.00	57.42	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.14	54.17	57.11	0.00	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.17	0.14	77.27	73.50	0.09	0.06
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.17	0.13	43.48	44.26	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.13	0.11	18.18	19.91	-0.08	-0.07
Iowa	B10	0.18	0.11	54.17	49.41	0.02	-0.00
Butler	Horz	0.06	0.11	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.11	56.52	54.28	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.18	0.11	100.00	94.58	0.18	0.10
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.18	0.11	40.91	38.38	-0.03	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.12	0.10	63.64	57.79	0.03	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.10	75.00	75.73	0.06	0.05
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.10	68.42	66.51	0.02	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.11	0.10	75.00	74.01	0.06	0.05
Austin Peay	OVC	0.11	0.10	32.00	35.39	-0.04	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.16	0.10	69.57	70.16	0.06	0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.16	0.10	69.57	65.18	0.06	0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.11	0.10	20.83	25.85	-0.06	-0.05
Florida International	SB	0.11	0.10	33.33	37.11	-0.04	-0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.14	0.08	40.91	44.29	-0.03	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.15	0.08	78.26	78.42	0.08	0.05
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.00	0.08	42.86	43.52	-0.00	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.15	0.08	71.43	73.99	0.06	0.04
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.15	0.08	30.00	33.22	-0.06	-0.03
Texas St.	Slnd	0.00	0.08	22.22	27.56	-0.00	-0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.14	0.08	76.19	70.71	0.07	0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.13	0.08	14.29	17.12	-0.09	-0.05
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.07	30.43	31.40	-0.02	-0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.06	0.07	8.33	10.84	-0.05	-0.06
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.13	0.07	82.61	81.41	0.08	0.05
Detroit	Horz	0.13	0.07	47.83	48.88	-0.01	-0.00
Fresno St.	WAC	0.06	0.07	39.13	44.46	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.07	54.17	54.76	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.13	0.07	47.62	48.01	-0.01	-0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.07	13.64	16.23	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.13	0.07	5.26	7.29	-0.11	-0.06
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.07	85.71	78.11	0.04	0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.07	56.52	53.76	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.07	26.32	29.64	-0.03	-0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.00	0.07	42.86	39.66	-0.00	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.06	0.07	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.07	80.00	76.71	0.04	0.04
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.13	0.07	52.38	53.29	0.01	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.00	0.07	60.87	59.85	0.00	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.00	0.07	84.00	82.62	0.00	0.05
Drake	MVC	0.00	0.07	52.17	50.01	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.00	0.07	62.50	61.43	0.00	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.00	0.07	34.78	32.10	-0.00	-0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.00	0.07	82.61	80.50	0.00	0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.06	0.07	30.00	34.18	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.11	0.07	80.95	77.45	0.07	0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.07	45.45	41.17	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.11	0.07	79.17	74.20	0.07	0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.07	72.00	72.22	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.07	36.00	40.36	-0.02	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.00	0.07	25.00	23.73	-0.00	-0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.07	26.32	29.85	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.07	31.82	42.18	-0.04	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.06	0.07	69.57	66.59	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.11	0.07	34.78	34.46	-0.03	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.07	56.52	57.20	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.11	0.07	66.67	68.55	0.04	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.07	59.09	56.38	0.01	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.11	0.07	14.29	14.31	-0.08	-0.05
Houston	CUSA	0.11	0.07	47.62	44.58	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.00	0.07	69.57	61.84	0.00	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.11	0.07	81.82	77.18	0.07	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.07	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.05
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.07	41.67	38.63	-0.01	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.11	0.07	77.27	77.70	0.06	0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.11	0.07	45.45	44.56	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.00	0.06	68.18	67.98	0.00	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.06	81.82	81.50	0.03	0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.06	56.52	53.94	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.06	38.10	37.80	-0.01	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.06	57.14	60.72	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.06	30.43	25.84	-0.02	-0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.06	66.67	65.98	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.04	27.78	29.77	-0.03	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.04	28.57	34.11	-0.03	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.04	34.78	38.43	-0.02	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.06	0.04	63.64	63.17	0.02	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.04	68.18	68.98	0.02	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.04	56.52	53.06	0.01	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.04	38.10	40.84	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.00	0.04	28.57	35.72	-0.00	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.00	0.04	86.96	83.30	0.00	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.00	0.04	31.82	34.86	-0.00	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.00	0.04	57.14	49.57	0.00	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.03	16.67	26.81	-0.04	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.00	0.03	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.03	82.61	79.93	0.04	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.06	0.03	56.52	54.88	0.01	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.00	0.03	40.91	34.45	-0.00	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.00	0.03	34.78	32.05	-0.00	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.03	70.83	66.50	0.02	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.06	0.03	70.83	68.83	0.02	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.00	0.03	73.91	68.65	0.00	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.03	69.57	71.58	0.02	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.03	63.64	56.68	0.02	0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.03	39.13	36.12	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.06	0.03	20.83	20.61	-0.03	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.00	0.03	50.00	48.48	0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.03	62.50	62.42	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.03	65.22	63.65	0.02	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.03	56.52	56.80	0.01	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.03	60.00	59.09	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.06	0.03	77.27	75.07	0.03	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.03	4.00	5.27	-0.05	-0.03
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.03	54.55	56.78	0.01	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.04	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.03	47.83	43.63	-0.00	-0.00