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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Western Illinois

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:325.0
Current RPI:325
Expected SOS:256
Current SOS:256
Current Record:6-20
Expected Record:6-20
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-9
Current OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC RPI:348
Expected OOC SOS:340



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-20325.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Kansas St. (57.0)B12A82-55L0%0.0
11-16Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCH71-74L0%0.0
11-19Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCA73-64L0%0.0
11-26Miami OH (302.0)MACA81-72L0%0.0
11-29American (310.0)PatA57-50L0%0.0
12-3Chicago St. (318.0)WACH76-83L0%0.0
12-10Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCH49-63L0%0.0
12-17Milwaukee (256.0)HorzA59-75W100%0.0
12-19Purdue (19.0)B10A82-50L0%0.0
12-29Fort Wayne (178.0)SumA91-93W100%0.0
12-31IUPUI (218.0)SumA89-71L0%0.0
1-4South Dakota St. (160.0)SumH82-74W100%0.0
1-7Oral Roberts (292.0)SumH86-71W100%0.0
1-11Denver (207.0)SumA84-70L0%0.0
1-14Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumA86-72L0%0.0
1-21North Dakota St. (111.0)SumH57-89L0%0.0
1-25South Dakota (123.0)SumA62-55L0%0.0
1-28IUPUI (218.0)SumH78-69W100%0.0
2-1South Dakota St. (160.0)SumA98-65L0%0.0
2-4Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumH67-79L0%0.0
2-8Oral Roberts (292.0)SumA60-63W100%0.0
2-14Denver (207.0)SumH72-78L0%0.0
2-18North Dakota St. (111.0)SumA100-91L0%0.0
2-23South Dakota (123.0)SumH81-92L0%0.0
2-25Fort Wayne (178.0)SumH92-96L0%0.0
3-4South Dakota (123.0)SumA78-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western IllinoisSum26.5526.5524.5924.59-13.49-13.49
South DakotaSum6.746.7460.7160.711.441.44
South Dakota St.Sum5.075.0750.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum5.045.0451.7251.720.170.17
IUPUISum4.984.9839.2939.29-1.07-1.07
Fort WayneSum4.904.9057.6957.690.750.75
DenverSum4.884.8850.0050.000.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum4.874.8757.6957.690.750.75
Oral RobertsSum4.814.8123.0823.08-2.59-2.59
Eastern IllinoisOVC3.913.9140.0040.00-0.78-0.78
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.102.1040.0040.00-0.42-0.42
Miami OHMAC2.062.0627.5927.59-0.92-0.92
Kansas St.B121.991.9959.3859.380.370.37
MilwaukeeHorz1.981.9830.3030.30-0.78-0.78
Chicago St.WAC1.951.957.147.14-1.67-1.67
AmericanPat1.921.9224.1424.14-0.99-0.99
PurdueB101.921.9277.4277.421.051.05
Austin PeayOVC0.370.3732.1432.14-0.13-0.13
UMKCWAC0.310.3146.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.280.2846.6746.67-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.270.2717.8617.86-0.17-0.17
Murray St.OVC0.260.2645.1645.16-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.230.2350.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.220.2268.7568.750.080.08
Tennessee MartinOVC0.200.2061.2961.290.050.05
MontanaBSky0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.190.1941.9441.94-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.180.1858.8258.820.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.170.1734.4834.48-0.05-0.05
IndianaB100.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
OaklandHorz0.160.1673.3373.330.070.07
Eastern MichiganMAC0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.160.1667.6567.650.060.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.160.1661.7661.760.040.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.160.1677.4277.420.090.09
DetroitHorz0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
DrakeMVC0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
UC IrvineBW0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.140.1473.5373.530.060.06
North DakotaBSky0.140.1467.8667.860.050.05
BradleyMVC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.130.1336.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1353.5753.570.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1381.2581.250.080.08
NavyPat0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
BelmontOVC0.130.1377.7877.780.070.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
OklahomaB120.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
MichiganB100.120.1268.5768.570.050.05
WyomingMWC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
NebraskaB100.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Iowa St.B120.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
IdahoBSky0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
MissouriSEC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
AkronMAC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
ArmyPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
HowardMEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.090.0996.9796.970.090.09
HofstraCAA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
PortlandWCC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
MarylandB100.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
West VirginiaB120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
CreightonBE0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
High PointBSth0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.073.333.33-0.06-0.06
RichmondA100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
StetsonASun0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0767.8667.860.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
SeattleWAC0.070.0737.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
BucknellPat0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
ColgatePat0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0612.9012.90-0.05-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.060.0622.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
VillanovaBE0.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
PittsburghACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
USCP120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
CaliforniaP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0687.8887.880.050.05
KansasB120.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
TexasB120.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01