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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


UT Arlington

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:120.9
Current RPI:166
Expected SOS:179
Current SOS:256
Current Record:12-8
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:4-4
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-4
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:94
Expected OOC SOS:202



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-869.90.91%
21-981.76.48%
20-1095.619.13%
19-11112.827.83%
18-12131.525.68%
17-13150.813.70%
16-14169.04.89%
15-15186.81.24%
14-16204.10.12%
13-17207.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UT Arlington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Loyola Marymount (262.7)WCCH85-80W100%0.0
11-18BYU (62.6)WCCA75-89W100%0.0
11-21Alabama (40.5)SECA77-76L0%0.0
11-24Western Carolina (222.1)SCN89-65W100%0.0
11-25Niagara (187.0)MAACA90-95W100%0.0
11-29Rice (321.9)CUSAH69-49W100%0.0
12-2North Texas (217.4)CUSAH65-60W100%0.0
12-7Northern Iowa (120.5)MVCA62-58L0%0.0
12-9Florida Gulf Coast (149.6)ASunH78-85L0%0.0
12-16UT Rio Grande Valley (227.6)WACA65-86W100%0.0
12-18Creighton (29.6)BEA90-81L0%0.0
12-21Cal Poly (282.9)BWH77-56W100%0.0
12-29Coastal Carolina (245.2)SBA90-65L0%0.0
12-31Appalachian St. (266.2)SBA80-76L0%0.0
1-4Troy (207.3)SBH86-76W100%0.0
1-6South Alabama (235.0)SBH91-67W100%0.0
1-11Little Rock (293.5)SBA77-65L0%0.0
1-13Arkansas St. (291.0)SBA71-97W100%0.0
1-18Louisiana Lafayette (62.2)SBH65-77L0%0.0
1-20Louisiana Monroe (292.5)SBH71-55W100%0.0
1-25Georgia St. (136.3)SBA0-045%-1.4
1-27Georgia Southern (119.1)SBA0-048%-0.6
2-1Appalachian St. (266.2)SBH0-088%13.1
2-3Coastal Carolina (245.2)SBH0-081%9.9
2-10Texas St. (216.4)SBH0-085%11.4
2-15Louisiana Monroe (292.5)SBA0-079%8.9
2-17Louisiana Lafayette (62.2)SBA0-030%-5.8
2-22Georgia Southern (119.1)SBH0-070%5.8
2-24Georgia St. (136.3)SBH0-068%5.0
3-2Texas St. (216.4)SBA0-067%5.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UT Arlington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UT Arlington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UT Arlington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UT ArlingtonSB26.3726.2862.7964.526.757.63
Texas St.SB0.714.2257.8952.150.110.18
Georgia St.SB0.494.0666.6767.140.161.39
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.864.0482.3581.111.852.51
Coastal CarolinaSB2.804.0423.5336.52-1.48-1.09
Georgia SouthernSB0.424.0466.6767.160.141.39
Appalachian St.SB2.794.0329.4135.79-1.15-1.15
Louisiana MonroeSB2.854.0328.5730.58-1.22-1.56
South AlabamaSB2.712.5552.9447.510.16-0.13
Arkansas St.SB2.722.5529.4132.22-1.12-0.91
Little RockSB2.722.5517.6522.58-1.76-1.40
TroySB2.642.4937.5044.34-0.66-0.28
RiceCUSA2.631.8711.7618.31-2.01-1.18
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.641.7847.3746.63-0.14-0.12
BYUWCC2.691.7885.0078.781.891.02
North TexasCUSA2.631.7547.0648.32-0.15-0.06
Western CarolinaSC2.571.7341.1836.63-0.45-0.46
Loyola MarymountWCC2.561.7229.4130.18-1.05-0.68
AlabamaSEC2.561.6966.6757.610.850.26
NiagaraMAAC2.561.6960.0054.820.510.16
Cal PolyBW2.501.6725.0029.25-1.25-0.69
CreightonBE2.501.6773.6869.691.180.66
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.501.6755.5665.010.280.50
Northern IowaMVC2.501.6741.1848.24-0.44-0.06
UTSACUSA0.210.2341.1839.65-0.04-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.210.1733.3334.10-0.07-0.06
FIUCUSA0.140.1735.2935.54-0.04-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.1737.5037.68-0.03-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.1729.4133.20-0.03-0.06
PacificWCC0.130.1745.0044.47-0.01-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.270.1763.1657.540.070.03
MississippiSEC0.140.1752.6345.860.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.290.1570.0070.570.120.06
HamptonMEAC0.200.1520.0041.73-0.12-0.02
BradleyMVC0.140.1565.0057.880.040.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.140.1477.7879.150.080.08
PepperdineWCC0.130.1410.5318.34-0.11-0.09
Santa ClaraWCC0.200.1433.3332.94-0.07-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.270.1452.6355.290.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.130.1480.9583.260.080.09
Alabama A&MSWAC0.190.1410.5316.75-0.15-0.09
MassachusettsA100.190.1450.0046.810.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.220.1236.8444.11-0.06-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.150.1252.9455.030.010.01
LamarSlnd0.140.1250.0054.890.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.210.1266.6765.640.070.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.1216.6724.91-0.04-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1272.2274.710.060.06
Missouri St.MVC0.070.1270.0068.300.030.04
Wake ForestACC0.070.1242.1140.46-0.01-0.02
WoffordSC0.070.1268.7563.690.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1247.3746.09-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.210.1228.5731.26-0.09-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.280.1241.1838.47-0.05-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.070.1122.2228.59-0.04-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.1127.7834.50-0.03-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.117.6923.28-0.11-0.06
UMKCWAC0.060.1121.0524.75-0.04-0.06
IonaMAAC0.130.1160.0064.110.030.03
PortlandWCC0.130.1127.7827.28-0.06-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1190.4888.960.100.09
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1150.0048.730.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1161.9063.140.000.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.150.097.1414.82-0.13-0.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.150.0980.0078.850.090.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.140.0956.2556.830.020.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.0917.6519.30-0.09-0.05
HawaiiBW0.150.0968.7563.990.060.02
Iowa St.B120.140.0961.1147.220.03-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.070.0917.6523.86-0.04-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0952.6347.520.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.140.0944.4446.02-0.02-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.140.0935.0026.12-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.140.0933.3336.93-0.05-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.140.0930.0039.93-0.05-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.130.0911.1118.00-0.10-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0930.0036.50-0.03-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.210.0950.0052.460.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.070.090.003.07-0.07-0.08
UABCUSA0.070.0961.1164.130.020.02
LipscombASun0.130.0952.9459.340.010.02
South CarolinaSEC0.140.0961.1151.910.030.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0952.9452.650.000.00
ClemsonACC0.140.0984.2173.240.100.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.0970.0071.230.050.04
New OrleansSlnd0.140.0937.5045.24-0.03-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.130.0950.0051.380.000.00
TulaneAmer0.070.0963.1657.890.020.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0994.7490.310.060.07
XavierBE0.130.0985.7180.080.090.05
MercerSC0.140.0844.4454.86-0.020.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.0866.6766.020.040.03
GeorgetownBE0.130.0868.4254.070.050.01
MinnesotaB100.190.0863.6457.630.050.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.0872.2258.920.060.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.0842.1146.09-0.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.130.0868.4263.960.050.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0638.8943.43-0.02-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0670.0068.220.030.02
TCUB120.080.0673.6865.600.040.02
AkronMAC0.070.0647.0644.91-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.070.0658.8261.450.010.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0655.0048.980.01-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.070.0625.0028.24-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0640.0043.350.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0678.9574.190.040.03
NJITASun0.070.0638.8942.61-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0631.5835.150.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0680.9576.520.040.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.0655.0052.470.010.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0658.8262.440.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0670.5969.630.030.02
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0647.3748.77-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.070.0660.0059.700.010.01
VermontAE0.070.0675.0077.850.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0652.9452.230.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0633.3333.770.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.140.0680.0075.060.080.03
Oral RobertsSum0.140.0630.0032.52-0.05-0.02
UNLVMWC0.140.0673.6865.260.070.02
Wichita St.Amer0.140.0678.9577.380.080.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.130.0612.5025.45-0.10-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.140.0629.4134.76-0.06-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0637.5031.760.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.0645.0049.29-0.01-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.140.0623.5325.64-0.07-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0645.0041.330.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0647.3750.940.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0638.8946.050.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0666.6768.540.000.02
George MasonA100.000.0645.0041.300.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.130.0652.6343.110.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.065.8819.350.00-0.04
IowaB100.070.0647.6244.02-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0650.0054.190.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0668.4263.650.000.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0670.5973.150.000.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0683.3384.240.000.04
Old DominionCUSA0.140.0678.9576.750.080.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0621.0539.480.00-0.01
RichmondA100.070.0631.5834.36-0.03-0.02
SamfordSC0.070.0627.7832.66-0.03-0.02
SeattleWAC0.060.0657.8954.500.010.01
Texas TechB120.140.0678.9571.810.080.03
The CitadelSC0.070.0618.7518.36-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.000.0663.1665.970.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0668.7567.600.030.02
VMISC0.070.0625.0024.15-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0668.4270.810.000.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0661.1156.830.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0668.4264.200.030.02
KentuckySEC0.070.0673.6867.970.030.02
PrincetonIvy0.130.0652.9460.220.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.130.0683.3381.430.090.04
SienaMAAC0.130.0628.5729.94-0.05-0.02
NebraskaB100.130.0666.6759.820.040.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.0636.8432.76-0.03-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.0620.0023.34-0.08-0.03
MemphisAmer0.140.0665.0058.540.040.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.0618.7536.82-0.08-0.01
OklahomaB120.070.0677.7867.910.040.02
ButlerBE0.060.0666.6763.070.020.01
DePaulBE0.000.0642.1134.310.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0668.4260.550.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.130.0670.0060.470.050.01
Seton HallBE0.130.0675.0067.890.060.02
St. John'sBE0.060.0647.3742.16-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0589.4777.000.050.03
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0538.8944.08-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0573.6871.560.000.02
LSUSEC0.070.0561.1153.170.010.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0550.0050.860.000.00
MaristMAAC0.060.0521.0522.02-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0527.7841.03-0.03-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0535.0031.83-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0344.4446.00-0.01-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.070.0378.9576.990.040.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0358.8249.760.01-0.00
CaliforniaP120.070.0336.8431.12-0.02-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0362.5058.690.020.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.030.009.09-0.07-0.02
DenverSum0.070.0333.3336.48-0.02-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0366.6763.420.020.01
IdahoBSky0.070.0364.7166.850.020.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0342.1146.00-0.01-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.037.6920.09-0.06-0.02
NavyPat0.070.0360.0055.160.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0365.0056.340.020.00
Oregon St.P120.070.0357.8950.840.010.00
Portland St.BSky0.070.0358.8263.210.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0333.3335.21-0.02-0.01
StanfordP120.070.0355.0050.370.010.00
WashingtonP120.070.0370.0061.440.030.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0389.4785.550.050.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0329.4133.93-0.03-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0331.5832.72-0.03-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0346.6746.97-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.070.0343.7549.23-0.01-0.00
HowardMEAC0.070.0310.5327.29-0.05-0.01
IndianaB100.070.0357.8950.710.010.00
La SalleA100.070.0340.0042.69-0.01-0.00
MaineAE0.070.0310.5314.83-0.05-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0325.0028.01-0.03-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0345.0048.56-0.01-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0368.4254.090.020.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0357.1460.410.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0343.7549.13-0.01-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0326.3231.50-0.03-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0352.6358.590.000.00
BaylorB120.060.0361.1156.090.010.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0315.7920.91-0.04-0.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0355.0050.330.010.00
UCLAP120.060.0365.0062.050.020.01
YaleIvy0.060.0341.1847.56-0.01-0.00
ArizonaP120.070.0380.0078.940.040.02
ArmyPat0.060.0361.1160.440.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0372.2274.930.030.01
CornellIvy0.060.0333.3333.23-0.02-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0366.6755.940.020.00
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0343.7540.93-0.01-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.030.0010.67-0.06-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6763.200.000.01
New HampshireAE0.060.0333.3340.08-0.02-0.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0365.0065.320.020.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0366.6768.730.020.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0352.9459.250.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0372.2268.930.000.01
TexasB120.070.0363.1657.630.020.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0321.0544.26-0.03-0.00
UCFAmer0.070.0368.4260.860.020.01
UtahP120.060.0363.1659.710.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.060.0345.0045.49-0.01-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0336.8435.57-0.02-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0356.2557.400.010.00