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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


UT Arlington

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:45.0
Current RPI:45
Expected SOS:138
Current SOS:138
Current Record:23-8
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:15-5
Expected Conf Record:15-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:12-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-0
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:15
Expected OOC SOS:38



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-845.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UT Arlington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Texas Southern (108.0)SWACH89-82W100%0.0
11-14Minnesota (20.0)B10A84-67L0%0.0
11-16Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunA85-72L0%0.0
11-18Arkansas (28.0)SECA71-67L0%0.0
11-23Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECH80-71W100%0.0
11-26Fordham (215.0)A10A63-67W100%0.0
11-29Texas (156.0)B12A61-72W100%0.0
12-3North Texas (339.0)CUSAA61-77W100%0.0
12-8Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCA51-65W100%0.0
12-16Bradley (220.0)MVCA51-56W100%0.0
12-22Loyola Marymount (153.0)WCCA77-80W100%0.0
12-31Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBH90-69W100%0.0
1-2Appalachian St. (301.0)SBH84-69W100%0.0
1-7Texas St. (179.0)SBA81-73L0%0.0
1-14Troy (147.0)SBA93-71L0%0.0
1-16South Alabama (231.0)SBA83-89W100%0.0
1-21Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBH71-55W100%0.0
1-23Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBH108-71W100%0.0
1-28Appalachian St. (301.0)SBA67-83W100%0.0
1-30Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBA72-70L0%0.0
2-4Texas St. (179.0)SBH76-61W100%0.0
2-11Arkansas St. (119.0)SBH81-75W100%0.0
2-13Little Rock (243.0)SBH71-55W100%0.0
2-18Georgia St. (104.0)SBA67-68W100%0.0
2-20Georgia Southern (121.0)SBA71-81W100%0.0
2-25South Alabama (231.0)SBH86-75W100%0.0
2-27Troy (147.0)SBH82-67W100%0.0
3-2Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBA57-72W100%0.0
3-4Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBA83-81L0%0.0
3-10Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBN74-51W100%0.0
3-11Texas St. (179.0)SBN62-83L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UT Arlington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UT Arlington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UT Arlington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UT ArlingtonSB26.3826.3881.5681.5616.6516.65
Texas St.SB5.735.7357.1457.140.820.82
Coastal CarolinaSB5.585.5846.4346.43-0.40-0.40
TroySB4.134.1359.3859.380.770.77
Louisiana MonroeSB4.064.0624.1424.14-2.10-2.10
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.044.0462.0762.070.970.97
South AlabamaSB4.014.0142.8642.86-0.57-0.57
Appalachian St.SB4.004.0026.9226.92-1.85-1.85
Georgia SouthernSB2.612.6155.1755.170.270.27
Georgia St.SB2.582.5862.0762.070.620.62
Arkansas St.SB2.562.5663.3363.330.680.68
Little RockSB2.532.5344.8344.83-0.26-0.26
MinnesotaB101.771.7771.8871.880.770.77
TexasB121.691.6934.3834.38-0.53-0.53
ArkansasSEC1.691.6972.7372.730.770.77
Saint Mary'sWCC1.671.6790.3290.321.351.35
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.671.6775.8675.860.860.86
Texas SouthernSWAC1.661.6669.7069.700.660.66
Loyola MarymountWCC1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.661.6657.5857.580.250.25
BradleyMVC1.611.6138.7138.71-0.36-0.36
FordhamA101.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
North TexasCUSA1.611.6122.2222.22-0.90-0.90
BYUWCC0.240.2466.6766.670.080.08
PepperdineWCC0.180.1826.6726.67-0.09-0.09
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.170.1744.4444.44-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.160.1658.6258.620.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
San FranciscoWCC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
FIUCUSA0.140.1417.2417.24-0.09-0.09
San DiegoWCC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.1328.5728.57-0.06-0.06
James MadisonCAA0.130.1328.1228.12-0.06-0.06
GonzagaWCC0.130.1396.9796.970.120.12
PortlandWCC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.130.1319.2319.23-0.08-0.08
AuburnSEC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
MississippiSEC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
UABCUSA0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
HawaiiBW0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.126.906.90-0.10-0.10
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
DavidsonA100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1187.8887.880.080.08
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
NJITASun0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
North FloridaASun0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
WoffordSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Texas TechB120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
FloridaSEC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
George MasonA100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Michigan St.B100.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
BaylorB120.100.1077.4277.420.050.05
BryantNEC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.100.1068.5768.570.040.04
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
HartfordAE0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
RiceCUSA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
RutgersB100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
TulaneAmer0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
ColoradoP120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
DrakeMVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
Iowa St.B120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
LSUSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.060.0677.1477.140.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
MercerSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
IllinoisB100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
IowaB100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
NebraskaB100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
UMBCAE0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00