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Through games of Jan 16, 2017.


UT Arlington

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:54.6
Current RPI:45
Expected SOS:145
Current SOS:120
Current Record:11-5
Expected Record:20-9
Current Conf Record:3-2
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:23
Expected OOC SOS:57



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-527.51.36%
23-632.26.69%
22-738.416.75%
21-846.825.29%
20-957.023.67%
19-1069.516.01%
18-1183.67.20%
17-1299.82.34%
16-13113.70.52%
15-14133.10.16%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UT Arlington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Texas Southern (110.9)SWACH89-82W100%0.0
11-14Minnesota (26.0)B10A84-67L0%0.0
11-16Florida Gulf Coast (76.2)ASunA85-72L0%0.0
11-18Arkansas (48.0)SECA71-67L0%0.0
11-23Mount St. Mary's (185.6)NECH80-71W100%0.0
11-26Fordham (246.0)A10A63-67W100%0.0
11-29Texas (145.1)B12A61-72W100%0.0
12-3North Texas (304.0)CUSAA61-77W100%0.0
12-8Saint Mary's (19.5)WCCA51-65W100%0.0
12-16Bradley (241.0)MVCA51-56W100%0.0
12-22Loyola Marymount (152.7)WCCA77-80W100%0.0
12-31Coastal Carolina (182.7)SBH90-69W100%0.0
1-2Appalachian St. (256.4)SBH84-69W100%0.0
1-7Texas St. (241.9)SBA81-73L0%0.0
1-14Troy (196.9)SBA93-71L0%0.0
1-16South Alabama (224.6)SBA83-89W100%0.0
1-21Louisiana Monroe (274.3)SBH0-090%14.6
1-23Louisiana Lafayette (112.4)SBH0-069%5.5
1-28Appalachian St. (256.4)SBA0-075%7.5
1-30Coastal Carolina (182.7)SBA0-066%4.6
2-4Texas St. (241.9)SBH0-088%13.1
2-11Arkansas St. (74.8)SBH0-067%4.9
2-13Little Rock (206.9)SBH0-084%11.0
2-18Georgia St. (131.6)SBA0-055%1.4
2-20Georgia Southern (100.4)SBA0-055%1.4
2-25South Alabama (224.6)SBH0-087%12.5
2-27Troy (196.9)SBH0-081%9.8
3-2Louisiana Monroe (274.3)SBA0-077%8.3
3-4Louisiana Lafayette (112.4)SBA0-047%-0.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UT Arlington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UT Arlington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UT Arlington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UT ArlingtonSB26.5126.2880.2676.9916.0414.19
Texas St.SB3.524.2950.0045.140.00-0.42
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.174.2262.5064.080.041.19
Louisiana MonroeSB0.094.2025.0029.39-0.05-1.73
Coastal CarolinaSB3.344.1746.6745.59-0.22-0.37
TroySB3.334.1743.7547.28-0.42-0.23
South AlabamaSB3.324.1746.6743.93-0.22-0.51
Appalachian St.SB3.334.1630.7733.17-1.28-1.40
Georgia SouthernSB0.472.7262.5060.610.120.58
Arkansas St.SB0.292.6564.7167.060.090.90
Little RockSB0.212.6256.2552.530.030.13
Georgia St.SB0.192.6253.3356.270.010.33
MinnesotaB103.301.9077.7869.151.830.73
TexasB123.221.8143.7537.15-0.40-0.47
ArkansasSEC3.381.8175.0067.321.690.63
Saint Mary'sWCC3.221.7993.7590.612.821.45
Florida Gulf CoastASun3.121.7866.6772.501.040.80
Loyola MarymountWCC3.221.7853.3349.780.21-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC3.121.7852.9468.430.180.66
Mount St. Mary'sNEC3.301.7838.8950.02-0.730.00
BradleyMVC3.121.7241.1835.67-0.55-0.49
FordhamA103.121.7237.5032.93-0.78-0.59
North TexasCUSA3.121.7228.5733.39-1.34-0.57
PepperdineWCC0.100.2123.5321.79-0.05-0.12
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.370.2043.7548.36-0.05-0.01
BYUWCC0.290.1868.4268.160.110.07
San FranciscoWCC0.180.1861.1158.650.040.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.430.1755.5649.900.05-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1562.5068.360.020.06
FIUCUSA0.200.1512.5021.96-0.15-0.09
San DiegoWCC0.200.1547.0640.37-0.01-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.200.1527.7830.30-0.09-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1575.0074.760.050.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.280.1517.6535.25-0.18-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.180.1522.2225.46-0.10-0.07
UABCUSA0.380.1558.8263.660.070.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.146.2511.84-0.08-0.11
AlabamaSEC0.190.1462.5057.020.050.02
TCUB120.270.1481.2565.210.170.04
CharlotteCUSA0.220.1343.7543.54-0.03-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.200.1221.4327.27-0.12-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1256.2553.440.010.01
StetsonASun0.200.1225.0027.36-0.10-0.06
NJITASun0.080.1241.1845.41-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.200.1256.2555.710.030.01
GonzagaWCC0.190.12100.0096.910.190.11
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1223.0831.10-0.06-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.200.1282.3582.770.130.08
PacificWCC0.000.1238.8934.94-0.00-0.04
PortlandWCC0.190.1250.0042.270.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1250.0046.720.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1220.0019.52-0.06-0.07
HawaiiBW0.200.1240.0044.09-0.04-0.01
AuburnSEC0.100.1264.7154.930.030.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.190.1217.6529.59-0.12-0.05
FloridaSEC0.190.1282.3576.960.120.06
La SalleA100.180.1266.6762.150.060.03
MississippiSEC0.180.1258.8252.810.030.01
BaylorB120.180.1293.7580.460.160.07
BryantNEC0.080.1222.2235.43-0.05-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1262.5057.280.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.1225.0029.61-0.04-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.1118.7528.06-0.06-0.05
HartfordAE0.220.0931.5829.37-0.08-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.0966.6750.950.040.00
LipscombASun0.190.0941.1847.61-0.03-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0961.1162.130.020.02
UTSACUSA0.100.0943.7538.32-0.01-0.02
North FloridaASun0.090.0918.7530.20-0.06-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.200.0950.0050.990.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.200.0946.1553.13-0.020.01
TulsaAmer0.100.0956.2551.250.010.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.0923.5324.37-0.06-0.05
Southern UtahBSky0.200.0912.5019.03-0.15-0.06
RiceCUSA0.190.0962.5066.050.050.03
NevadaMWC0.280.0983.3378.320.180.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0922.2230.94-0.00-0.03
VCUA100.000.0977.7873.920.000.04
WoffordSC0.180.0926.6739.99-0.09-0.02
Michigan St.B100.260.0963.1657.750.070.01
RutgersB100.200.0955.5643.070.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.090.0952.9454.280.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0935.7148.96-0.03-0.00
Texas TechB120.100.0976.4763.780.060.02
Chicago St.WAC0.180.0916.6718.41-0.12-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0917.6524.63-0.00-0.04
George MasonA100.170.0964.7156.530.050.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.170.0811.7616.67-0.13-0.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.170.0837.5045.32-0.04-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0842.1142.66-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.170.0864.7161.910.050.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.160.0861.1159.190.040.02
LSUSEC0.090.0856.2539.400.01-0.02
MichiganB100.170.0866.6758.160.060.01
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0856.2553.900.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0847.0643.82-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.170.0888.2484.630.130.06
DukeACC0.110.0677.7873.720.060.03
HamptonMEAC0.110.0626.6740.15-0.05-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.0629.4134.21-0.04-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0650.0047.440.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.110.0618.7520.57-0.07-0.04
TulaneAmer0.100.0623.5320.62-0.06-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.0633.3333.47-0.03-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0647.3745.21-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.190.0622.2236.06-0.11-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0661.1159.210.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.0677.7870.850.050.02
DenverSum0.100.0661.1157.830.020.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0655.5653.980.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0629.4138.91-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0646.1551.22-0.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0635.7136.22-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.0660.0072.720.020.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0625.0033.65-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.100.0664.7159.940.030.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0640.0037.09-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.0664.7170.610.030.02
UNLVMWC0.100.0650.0045.100.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.100.0658.8252.990.020.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.0633.3330.18-0.03-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.190.0623.0831.01-0.10-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0675.0058.080.050.01
PurdueB100.080.0677.7876.220.050.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.200.0660.0061.150.040.01
DaytonA100.090.0675.0076.040.050.03
St. BonaventureA100.090.0664.7161.890.030.01
CornellIvy0.090.0620.0024.58-0.06-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.0625.0025.29-0.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.090.0650.0042.110.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0647.0644.16-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0676.4777.720.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0635.2937.74-0.03-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0664.7161.460.030.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0661.1157.840.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0631.2537.15-0.03-0.01
RichmondA100.090.0664.7158.460.030.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0650.0047.550.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.090.0637.5029.45-0.02-0.02
USCP120.090.0684.2172.840.060.03
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0677.7882.460.050.04
WyomingMWC0.090.0662.5055.530.020.01
LehighPat0.080.0656.2566.290.010.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0662.5060.110.020.01
St. John'sBE0.170.0645.0038.60-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0621.4336.57-0.05-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0631.2545.28-0.03-0.01
KansasB120.000.0694.4481.600.000.04
Kansas St.B120.090.0676.4759.430.050.01
MarylandB100.000.0688.2471.840.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0611.1123.11-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.090.0631.2526.61-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.170.0678.9569.120.100.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0661.1156.560.020.01
OklahomaB120.000.0643.7536.61-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.080.0661.1150.470.020.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0631.5839.33-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.090.0637.5051.06-0.020.00
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0631.2541.99-0.03-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0656.2553.010.000.00
WagnerNEC0.080.0640.0049.71-0.02-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0682.3581.030.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0616.6721.63-0.00-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.100.0337.5038.15-0.02-0.01
SienaMAAC0.100.0338.8945.72-0.02-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.100.0366.6766.780.030.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.0340.0046.16-0.02-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.100.0356.2553.650.010.00
ConnecticutAmer0.100.0337.5043.15-0.02-0.00
DrexelCAA0.100.0335.2935.38-0.03-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0333.3333.23-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0355.5660.010.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.0337.5044.66-0.02-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.100.0326.3227.77-0.05-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.100.0353.8554.520.010.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0352.9455.240.010.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0318.7523.85-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0358.8254.990.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0381.2573.540.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0360.0054.070.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0312.5020.01-0.00-0.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0335.7144.07-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0335.2944.06-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0317.6521.39-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0317.6527.61-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0337.5043.12-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.090.0350.0040.930.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0325.0031.95-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0314.2929.37-0.07-0.01
StanfordP120.090.0352.9447.220.01-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.090.0350.0058.430.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0373.3373.890.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0341.1845.55-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.090.0362.5054.170.020.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0327.7834.27-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.090.0329.4127.56-0.04-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0375.0076.810.050.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0350.0047.550.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0352.6348.240.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.090.0358.3361.490.020.01
HofstraCAA0.090.0344.4445.47-0.01-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0338.8938.40-0.02-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0364.7167.000.000.01
RiderMAAC0.090.0361.1154.400.020.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0329.4125.22-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0350.0051.540.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0327.7834.95-0.04-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0355.5655.680.000.00
ArizonaP120.090.0388.8983.100.070.02
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0323.5328.53-0.05-0.01
BucknellPat0.080.0368.4271.170.030.01
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0388.2486.430.070.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0356.2559.170.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0388.8978.090.060.02
Fort WayneSum0.090.0368.7569.250.030.01
HoustonAmer0.090.0372.2271.210.040.01
IllinoisB100.000.0364.7154.360.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0366.6763.930.000.01
IowaB100.000.0357.8950.960.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.090.0350.0051.780.000.00
KentuckySEC0.090.0388.2487.320.070.02
LouisvilleACC0.090.0383.3377.690.060.02
Loyola MDPat0.080.0350.0047.080.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.370.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0357.1453.400.010.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0381.2572.930.000.01
UMBCAE0.080.0362.5058.760.020.00