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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


USC Upstate

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:335.3
Current RPI:337
Expected SOS:290
Current SOS:243
Current Record:2-16
Expected Record:5-22
Current Conf Record:1-4
Expected Conf Record:4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-12
Current OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:328
Expected OOC SOS:206



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-17263.50.02%
9-18285.60.46%
8-19301.52.01%
7-20316.98.33%
6-21328.520.14%
5-22336.929.01%
4-23342.325.18%
3-24345.812.37%
2-25347.62.47%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for USC Upstate.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Minnesota (98.1)B10A92-77L0%0.0
11-14Georgia (68.0)SECA74-65L0%0.0
11-18Charleston Southern (305.2)BSthH72-82L0%0.0
11-24Bowling Green (189.0)MACN83-74L0%0.0
11-25Abilene Christian (227.3)SlndN88-78W100%0.0
11-26Campbell (266.8)BSthA93-74L0%0.0
11-29UNC Asheville (142.3)BSthA82-70L0%0.0
12-2Gardner Webb (228.2)BSthA87-66L0%0.0
12-5Kansas St. (59.0)B12A86-49L0%0.0
12-9Denver (272.4)SumA84-69L0%0.0
12-16Jacksonville St. (151.9)OVCA77-61L0%0.0
12-20Creighton (29.5)BEA116-62L0%0.0
1-2UMKC (261.9)WACH77-79L0%0.0
1-6NJIT (276.2)ASunA98-87L0%0.0
1-11Florida Gulf Coast (149.9)ASunA75-58L0%0.0
1-13Stetson (306.0)ASunA87-69L0%0.0
1-18Jacksonville (302.1)ASunH91-85W100%0.0
1-20North Florida (242.2)ASunH80-100L0%0.0
1-24Lipscomb (132.1)ASunA0-010%-14.0
1-27Kennesaw St. (313.5)ASunH0-053%0.9
1-29Lipscomb (132.1)ASunH0-025%-7.6
2-3Kennesaw St. (313.5)ASunA0-031%-5.5
2-8Stetson (306.0)ASunH0-052%0.4
2-10Florida Gulf Coast (149.9)ASunH0-013%-12.3
2-15North Florida (242.2)ASunA0-026%-7.3
2-17Jacksonville (302.1)ASunA0-036%-4.1
2-22NJIT (276.2)ASunH0-041%-2.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

USC Upstate's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


USC Upstate's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  USC Upstate.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
USC UpstateASun26.3626.3811.4318.18-20.33-16.79
Florida Gulf CoastASun3.094.5955.5664.190.341.30
LipscombASun0.464.5952.9457.450.030.68
StetsonASun3.014.5629.4133.95-1.24-1.46
JacksonvilleASun3.014.5635.2933.88-0.88-1.47
North FloridaASun2.934.5327.7831.14-1.30-1.71
Kennesaw St.ASun0.304.5216.6722.26-0.20-2.51
NJITASun3.084.5235.2939.61-0.91-0.94
CampbellBSth3.262.1943.7545.38-0.41-0.20
Gardner WebbBSth3.022.1235.2938.59-0.89-0.48
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.942.0656.2554.690.370.19
UNC AshevilleBSth2.952.0650.0057.130.000.29
Charleston SouthernBSth3.012.0520.0028.70-1.81-0.87
Bowling GreenMAC3.011.9956.2547.950.38-0.08
DenverSum2.851.9229.4133.93-1.17-0.62
Kansas St.B122.851.9273.6864.171.350.54
GeorgiaSEC2.781.8864.7154.380.820.16
UMKCWAC2.851.8816.6721.97-1.90-1.05
CreightonBE2.781.8573.6869.711.320.73
Jacksonville St.OVC2.781.8568.4267.111.020.63
MinnesotaB102.781.8561.9056.200.660.23
WinthropBSth0.400.3050.0059.430.000.06
High PointBSth0.320.2743.7549.22-0.04-0.00
LibertyBSth0.240.2750.0054.180.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.320.2716.6716.15-0.21-0.18
PresbyterianBSth0.230.2727.7827.11-0.10-0.12
RadfordBSth0.320.2757.8958.880.050.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.2150.0052.500.000.01
BelmontOVC0.070.2071.4374.670.030.10
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.2035.2940.46-0.02-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.2057.8953.220.000.01
FIUCUSA0.220.2035.2935.54-0.07-0.06
Oral RobertsSum0.280.2030.0032.54-0.11-0.07
NavyPat0.150.1760.0055.160.030.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.300.1731.5832.71-0.11-0.06
MichiganB100.150.1676.1970.800.080.07
BuffaloMAC0.150.1672.2274.940.070.08
Texas TechB120.150.1678.9571.750.090.07
FloridaSEC0.150.1673.6871.600.070.07
NebraskaB100.210.1663.6459.480.060.03
Fort WayneSum0.150.1452.6351.680.010.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.150.1444.4450.31-0.020.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.240.1465.0056.350.070.02
South DakotaSum0.230.1473.6872.400.110.06
SeattleWAC0.070.1357.8954.500.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.140.1323.5328.71-0.07-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.000.1372.2268.930.000.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.1372.2274.730.060.07
AlabamaSEC0.140.1368.4259.020.050.02
PurdueB100.060.1390.4888.390.050.10
TexasB120.000.1365.0058.600.000.02
ButlerBE0.070.1366.6763.070.020.03
GeorgetownBE0.150.1368.4254.080.050.01
Seton HallBE0.220.1375.0067.910.110.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.150.1336.8432.75-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.1346.6747.00-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.210.1377.7870.410.120.05
West VirginiaB120.150.1380.0076.040.090.07
LSUSEC0.150.1361.1153.190.030.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1372.2258.880.060.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.1072.2272.970.070.05
Florida St.ACC0.090.1073.6869.660.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.160.1026.3230.45-0.08-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.160.1047.3746.09-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.150.1033.3335.21-0.05-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.150.1038.8944.07-0.03-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.1066.6765.390.020.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.107.6920.08-0.06-0.06
UCFAmer0.150.1068.4260.830.060.02
Wright St.Horz0.150.1068.4269.260.060.04
DrexelCAA0.160.1030.0030.97-0.06-0.04
Green BayHorz0.160.1025.0027.93-0.08-0.04
SamfordSC0.070.1027.7832.67-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.107.6923.24-0.07-0.05
YaleIvy0.070.1041.1847.61-0.01-0.00
Wichita St.Amer0.150.1078.9577.380.080.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1011.1115.30-0.11-0.07
RutgersB100.140.1055.0046.650.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.1061.1158.710.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.150.1083.3381.450.100.06
WoffordSC0.150.1068.7563.660.050.03
MissouriSEC0.150.1066.6763.150.050.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.1060.0062.010.030.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.1037.5037.67-0.03-0.02
Michigan St.B100.070.1085.7183.760.050.06
AuburnSEC0.150.0989.4776.990.120.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.0942.1143.50-0.02-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.140.0944.4446.01-0.02-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.140.0936.8435.58-0.04-0.03
MarquetteBE0.080.0968.4260.530.030.02
ProvidenceBE0.200.0970.0060.470.080.02
BaylorB120.140.0957.8953.280.020.01
NorthwesternB100.130.0955.0050.370.010.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0725.0028.02-0.04-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0742.8635.220.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.160.0737.5031.78-0.04-0.03
BrownIvy0.080.0750.0045.130.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0745.0049.28-0.01-0.00
ColgatePat0.080.0750.0051.030.000.00
DuquesneA100.080.0770.0058.090.030.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0723.5332.57-0.04-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0757.8959.500.000.01
IonaMAAC0.080.0760.0064.130.020.02
LafayettePat0.080.0722.2227.46-0.04-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0740.0042.51-0.02-0.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0721.0521.99-0.04-0.04
MercerSC0.000.0744.4454.870.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0745.0047.06-0.01-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0755.5657.250.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0743.7549.11-0.01-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.080.0750.0045.850.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.080.0735.0026.13-0.02-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0752.9455.030.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0780.0078.870.050.04
UABCUSA0.080.0761.1164.150.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.080.0733.3333.87-0.03-0.02
WagnerNEC0.080.0764.7164.560.020.02
WashingtonP120.000.0770.0061.460.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.160.0711.7612.80-0.12-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0729.4133.20-0.03-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.003.060.00-0.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0710.0019.62-0.06-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0770.0071.220.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0742.1144.98-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0783.3384.250.000.05
SienaMAAC0.070.0728.5729.93-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0745.0045.03-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0766.6766.030.020.02
VCUA100.070.0760.0059.710.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.150.0730.0039.95-0.06-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.150.0662.5058.710.040.01
Penn St.B100.140.0661.9055.820.030.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0626.3231.48-0.03-0.02
AkronMAC0.080.0647.0644.92-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0644.4444.910.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.160.0647.0641.38-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0641.1839.14-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0647.0648.430.00-0.00
MarylandB100.140.0666.6763.130.050.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.150.0690.4888.970.120.05
Western CarolinaSC0.140.0638.8935.38-0.03-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.140.0622.2228.57-0.08-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.0642.1134.300.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.070.0670.5975.960.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0661.1151.910.020.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0647.3742.16-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.0694.7490.310.000.05
XavierBE0.070.0685.7180.060.050.04
ArkansasSEC0.060.0668.4264.160.020.02
MassachusettsA100.140.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
IndianaB100.060.0660.0052.880.010.00
IowaB100.000.0647.6243.940.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0657.8946.220.01-0.00
KansasB120.070.0684.2179.760.050.04
OklahomaB120.070.0677.7868.030.040.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0668.4254.040.030.00
TCUB120.070.0675.0067.830.030.02
ColoradoP120.080.0460.0053.720.020.00
DavidsonA100.090.0458.8261.440.020.01
Montana St.BSky0.080.0450.0047.650.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0458.8257.130.010.01
StanfordP120.080.0455.0050.330.010.00
VMISC0.090.0425.0024.14-0.04-0.02
WyomingMWC0.080.0461.1156.790.020.00
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0327.7831.08-0.04-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0342.1132.46-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.035.8819.39-0.07-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0054.900.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0328.5731.24-0.04-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0337.5045.24-0.02-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0350.0051.390.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.037.1414.82-0.07-0.02
Saint LouisA100.080.0347.3746.93-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.080.0357.8950.210.010.00
The CitadelSC0.080.0318.7518.37-0.05-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0322.2227.31-0.05-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0325.0043.18-0.04-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0378.9574.200.040.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0350.0050.860.000.00
PennIvy0.070.0364.7162.690.020.01
ClemsonACC0.070.0384.2173.180.050.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0352.6347.500.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.070.0366.6768.540.020.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0327.7841.03-0.03-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0317.6534.76-0.05-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0378.9576.770.050.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0366.6767.670.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0368.7567.610.030.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0352.9452.250.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0315.7922.64-0.05-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0317.6527.34-0.04-0.01
BryantNEC0.080.039.5217.12-0.06-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0356.2556.820.010.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0329.4133.930.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0352.6343.040.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0380.9583.260.040.02
HowardMEAC0.070.0310.5326.29-0.05-0.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0373.6868.040.040.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0326.6729.12-0.03-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0315.0020.28-0.05-0.02
MississippiSEC0.080.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.070.0329.4134.78-0.03-0.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0357.8950.860.010.00
RichmondA100.070.0331.5834.35-0.03-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0358.8262.830.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0331.5836.43-0.03-0.01
TempleAmer0.080.0352.6351.740.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0368.4263.970.000.01
UCLAP120.070.0365.0062.050.020.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0310.0016.77-0.05-0.02
AmericanPat0.070.0325.0026.03-0.03-0.01
Arizona St.P120.070.0378.9576.160.040.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0355.0048.980.01-0.00
George WashingtonA100.070.0345.0043.49-0.01-0.00
HarvardIvy0.060.0337.5046.70-0.02-0.00
IllinoisB100.060.0345.0043.62-0.01-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0357.1453.040.010.00
Ohio St.B100.060.0381.8276.870.040.02
TulsaAmer0.070.0355.0053.330.010.00
Washington St.P120.070.0347.3741.43-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0350.0046.270.00-0.00