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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


USC Upstate

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:229.0
Current RPI:229
Expected SOS:298
Current SOS:298
Current Record:13-15
Expected Record:13-15
Current Conf Record:7-8
Expected Conf Record:7-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-6
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:192
Expected OOC SOS:275



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-15229.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for USC Upstate.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Georgetown (106.0)BEA105-60L0%0.0
11-17UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthH57-73L0%0.0
11-19Charleston Southern (295.0)BSthA77-79W100%0.0
11-22Charlotte (240.0)CUSAA103-108W100%0.0
11-27College of Charleston (64.0)CAAA72-60L0%0.0
11-29Auburn (113.0)SECA90-83L0%0.0
12-2Campbell (246.0)BSthN80-73W100%0.0
12-3The Citadel (282.0)SCA97-92L0%0.0
12-4Colgate (294.0)PatN65-71W100%0.0
12-13Presbyterian (347.0)BSthH76-48W100%0.0
12-15Alabama (78.0)SECA78-61L0%0.0
12-18Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH66-67L0%0.0
1-2UMKC (184.0)WACA75-84W100%0.0
1-7NJIT (290.0)ASunH75-65W100%0.0
1-12North Florida (217.0)ASunH65-73L0%0.0
1-14Jacksonville (291.0)ASunH73-66W100%0.0
1-19Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunA60-62W100%0.0
1-21Stetson (328.0)ASunA86-97W100%0.0
1-25Lipscomb (189.0)ASunA84-77L0%0.0
1-28Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunH79-73W100%0.0
1-30Lipscomb (189.0)ASunH80-92L0%0.0
2-4Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunA84-79L0%0.0
2-9Jacksonville (291.0)ASunA67-70W100%0.0
2-11North Florida (217.0)ASunA71-84W100%0.0
2-16Stetson (328.0)ASunH72-83L0%0.0
2-18Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunH89-97L0%0.0
2-23NJIT (290.0)ASunA88-87L0%0.0
2-27Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunH78-80L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

USC Upstate's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


USC Upstate's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  USC Upstate.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
USC UpstateASun26.3826.3849.3149.31-0.37-0.37
Kennesaw St.ASun6.156.1537.0437.04-1.59-1.59
North FloridaASun4.574.5735.7135.71-1.31-1.31
Florida Gulf CoastASun4.574.5778.5778.572.612.61
StetsonASun4.504.5025.9325.93-2.17-2.17
LipscombASun4.484.4853.5753.570.320.32
NJITASun4.454.4529.6329.63-1.81-1.81
JacksonvilleASun4.414.4150.0050.000.000.00
CampbellBSth2.152.1546.6746.67-0.14-0.14
PresbyterianBSth2.032.0311.1111.11-1.58-1.58
UNC AshevilleBSth2.002.0068.9768.970.760.76
Charleston SouthernBSth1.991.9933.3333.33-0.66-0.66
The CitadelSC1.961.9627.5927.59-0.88-0.88
AlabamaSEC1.931.9356.2556.250.240.24
ColgatePat1.911.9130.0030.00-0.76-0.76
AuburnSEC1.901.9054.8454.840.180.18
College of CharlestonCAA1.821.8271.8871.880.790.79
CharlotteCUSA1.791.7942.8642.86-0.26-0.26
GeorgetownBE1.791.7941.9441.94-0.29-0.29
Jacksonville St.OVC1.791.7954.8454.840.170.17
UMKCWAC1.791.7948.2848.28-0.06-0.06
RadfordBSth0.340.3440.0040.00-0.07-0.07
WinthropBSth0.310.3180.0080.000.180.18
LongwoodBSth0.280.2814.2914.29-0.20-0.20
FIUCUSA0.280.2817.2417.24-0.18-0.18
Gardner WebbBSth0.240.2453.3353.330.020.02
High PointBSth0.240.2442.8642.86-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.240.2455.1755.170.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.210.2126.6726.67-0.10-0.10
Florida A&MMEAC0.210.2117.8617.86-0.14-0.14
FloridaSEC0.200.2075.0075.000.100.10
Tennessee St.OVC0.200.2053.5753.570.010.01
BelmontOVC0.200.2077.7877.780.110.11
MissouriSEC0.200.2025.0025.00-0.10-0.10
LSUSEC0.200.2032.2632.26-0.07-0.07
UNC GreensboroSC0.180.1870.9770.970.070.07
ChattanoogaSC0.180.1858.6258.620.030.03
MercerSC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
GeorgiaSEC0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.153.333.33-0.14-0.14
VMISC0.150.1514.2914.29-0.11-0.11
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
ElonCAA0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.04-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
FurmanSC0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
LafayettePat0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.1267.8667.860.040.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
UMBCAE0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
SamfordSC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
SyracuseACC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
James MadisonCAA0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Coastal CarolinaSB0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1184.3884.380.080.08
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
PurdueB100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
UABCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.090.0968.5768.570.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
PacificWCC0.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
SienaMAAC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
MarylandB100.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
LehighPat0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
CreightonBE0.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
NavyPat0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.070.07
KentuckySEC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
TowsonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
MaristMAAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0629.4129.41-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
BrownIvy0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.05-0.05
IonaMAAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
RiceCUSA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
TempleAmer0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
KansasB120.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Michigan St.B100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0637.0437.04-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
BucknellPat0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
ButlerBE0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
DePaulBE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
XavierBE0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01