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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


USC Upstate

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:216.4
Current RPI:212
Expected SOS:292
Current SOS:276
Current Record:13-13
Expected Record:13-14
Current Conf Record:7-6
Expected Conf Record:7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-5
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:197
Expected OOC SOS:278



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-13209.842.90%
13-14221.357.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for USC Upstate.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Georgetown (75.0)BEA105-60L0%0.0
11-17UNC Asheville (62.6)BSthH57-73L0%0.0
11-19Charleston Southern (302.4)BSthA77-79W100%0.0
11-22Charlotte (235.4)CUSAA103-108W100%0.0
11-27College of Charleston (69.3)CAAA72-60L0%0.0
11-29Auburn (89.0)SECA90-83L0%0.0
12-2Campbell (278.0)BSthN80-73W100%0.0
12-3The Citadel (317.6)SCA97-92L0%0.0
12-4Colgate (279.4)PatN65-71W100%0.0
12-13Presbyterian (344.8)BSthH76-48W100%0.0
12-15Alabama (77.2)SECA78-61L0%0.0
12-18Jacksonville St. (184.1)OVCH66-67L0%0.0
1-2UMKC (182.1)WACA75-84W100%0.0
1-7NJIT (298.5)ASunH75-65W100%0.0
1-12North Florida (239.9)ASunH65-73L0%0.0
1-14Jacksonville (279.5)ASunH73-66W100%0.0
1-19Florida Gulf Coast (84.3)ASunA60-62W100%0.0
1-21Stetson (330.9)ASunA86-97W100%0.0
1-25Lipscomb (163.2)ASunA84-77L0%0.0
1-28Kennesaw St. (269.8)ASunH79-73W100%0.0
1-30Lipscomb (163.2)ASunH80-92L0%0.0
2-4Kennesaw St. (269.8)ASunA84-79L0%0.0
2-9Jacksonville (279.5)ASunA67-70W100%0.0
2-11North Florida (239.9)ASunA71-84W100%0.0
2-16Stetson (330.9)ASunH72-83L0%0.0
2-18Florida Gulf Coast (84.3)ASunH89-97L0%0.0
2-23NJIT (298.5)ASunA0-043%-1.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

USC Upstate's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


USC Upstate's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  USC Upstate.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
USC UpstateASun26.3826.3652.9953.361.581.77
StetsonASun4.684.6128.0027.13-2.06-2.11
NJITASun2.834.5430.7730.77-1.09-1.75
North FloridaASun4.604.5429.1730.68-1.92-1.75
LipscombASun4.574.5152.0052.270.180.20
Kennesaw St.ASun4.574.5140.0040.04-0.91-0.90
Florida Gulf CoastASun4.574.5175.0075.792.282.32
JacksonvilleASun4.574.5154.1753.320.380.30
CampbellBSth2.292.1941.6741.62-0.38-0.37
PresbyterianBSth2.192.0912.5012.01-1.64-1.59
Charleston SouthernBSth2.192.0830.4331.04-0.86-0.79
UNC AshevilleBSth2.162.0673.0872.941.000.95
The CitadelSC2.142.0520.0019.20-1.28-1.26
AlabamaSEC2.102.0160.0058.370.420.34
ColgatePat2.031.9932.1433.87-0.73-0.64
AuburnSEC2.071.9859.2658.320.380.33
College of CharlestonCAA1.961.8870.3771.760.800.82
CharlotteCUSA1.921.8543.4843.94-0.25-0.22
GeorgetownBE1.921.8548.1547.43-0.07-0.10
Jacksonville St.OVC1.921.8550.0049.530.00-0.02
UMKCWAC1.921.8550.0048.730.00-0.05
RadfordBSth0.300.3438.4640.55-0.07-0.06
FIUCUSA0.330.3016.0018.13-0.23-0.19
Gardner WebbBSth0.270.2750.0049.670.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.270.2744.0045.26-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.270.2757.6957.630.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.270.2716.0016.19-0.18-0.18
WinthropBSth0.230.2776.0077.350.120.15
FloridaSEC0.260.2382.1480.600.170.14
LSUSEC0.250.2233.3331.80-0.08-0.08
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.220.2020.0022.21-0.13-0.11
Florida A&MMEAC0.220.2020.0020.88-0.13-0.12
BelmontOVC0.210.2080.0079.920.130.12
Morehead St.OVC0.180.2044.0046.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.210.2057.6956.380.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.210.2037.0436.81-0.06-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.150.1953.8554.930.010.02
MissouriSEC0.180.1925.9325.77-0.09-0.09
VMISC0.190.1716.0016.75-0.13-0.11
East CarolinaAmer0.180.1646.4343.89-0.01-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.140.1665.3866.650.040.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1629.6331.16-0.06-0.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.180.1669.2368.790.070.06
MercerSC0.180.1640.7440.78-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.140.1651.8552.250.010.01
ElonCAA0.180.1655.5656.900.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.1457.6955.370.020.01
Air ForceMWC0.150.1334.6233.56-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1369.5771.400.040.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.130.003.38-0.15-0.13
South AlabamaSB0.150.1344.0042.77-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.150.1328.0028.37-0.07-0.06
DavidsonA100.150.1353.8552.600.010.01
FurmanSC0.150.1364.2964.510.040.04
SamfordSC0.110.1355.5656.300.010.02
IowaB100.140.1353.5751.590.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.110.1375.0071.920.060.06
SyracuseACC0.140.1358.6257.910.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.140.1322.2222.75-0.08-0.07
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1350.0049.270.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.070.1325.9325.63-0.03-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1251.8550.690.010.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.140.1246.1547.50-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1030.4331.13-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1069.2370.270.040.04
SienaMAAC0.110.1048.2848.54-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.110.1062.9661.340.030.02
BinghamtonAE0.110.1033.3334.84-0.04-0.03
UMBCAE0.110.1061.5460.470.020.02
La SalleA100.110.1053.8554.810.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1028.0028.91-0.05-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1030.7730.10-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1014.8115.43-0.08-0.07
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.1048.1547.60-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.110.1064.2963.820.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1081.4881.510.070.06
William & MaryCAA0.110.1052.0053.050.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.070.1060.0059.400.010.02
PurdueB100.070.1082.1480.780.040.06
MarylandB100.110.0977.7876.990.060.05
James MadisonCAA0.110.0925.0026.38-0.05-0.04
CreightonBE0.110.0977.7875.390.060.05
NavyPat0.100.0950.0048.770.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0960.7159.870.010.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0989.6688.760.050.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0736.3636.47-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0770.3769.250.030.03
BaylorB120.070.0781.4878.550.050.04
DenverSum0.070.0757.1456.680.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0740.7442.89-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.070.0724.1424.50-0.04-0.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0770.3767.240.030.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0759.2657.930.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0725.0026.25-0.04-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.070.0763.6464.970.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0728.0029.86-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0776.0076.570.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.070.0762.9662.450.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0732.1431.91-0.03-0.02
BrownIvy0.040.0737.5037.60-0.01-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.040.0712.0011.80-0.03-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0788.8987.450.060.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0777.7877.990.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0738.4638.56-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.070.0744.4444.02-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.070.0760.0060.590.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0765.3865.420.010.02
Idaho St.BSky0.040.0716.0016.87-0.02-0.04
IonaMAAC0.040.0762.0762.320.010.02
Kent St.MAC0.040.0755.5655.100.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.040.0753.8554.710.000.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0748.1547.57-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.070.0764.2963.090.020.02
MinnesotaB100.040.0775.0073.470.020.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0783.3384.080.050.05
North TexasCUSA0.080.0725.0025.84-0.04-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0761.5462.870.020.02
PacificWCC0.070.0732.1432.21-0.03-0.02
RiceCUSA0.080.0764.0063.500.020.02
RiderMAAC0.070.0753.3353.310.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0757.1457.270.010.01
SeattleWAC0.080.0739.1337.81-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.070.0726.9225.66-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.040.0742.3143.88-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.040.0760.7159.030.010.01
TempleAmer0.040.0748.2850.61-0.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.040.0733.3333.33-0.01-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.040.0742.3143.98-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0734.7836.63-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.070.0744.4443.90-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0764.0064.920.020.02
KansasB120.070.0689.2987.840.060.05
Murray St.OVC0.070.0646.1546.49-0.01-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0640.7442.17-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0659.2659.740.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0666.6765.160.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0657.1455.800.010.01
UABCUSA0.070.0651.8553.220.000.00
HowardMEAC0.070.0619.2321.44-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.070.0659.2657.620.010.01
AmericanPat0.070.0625.0025.07-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.070.0639.2938.46-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0653.5753.370.000.00
BucknellPat0.070.0673.3373.730.030.03
DelawareCAA0.030.0637.0435.10-0.01-0.02
DrexelCAA0.030.0628.5729.06-0.01-0.03
HofstraCAA0.070.0642.8642.57-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.070.0650.0050.080.000.00
LehighPat0.070.0659.2660.160.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0648.1549.03-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.070.0650.0048.510.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.070.0664.2961.960.020.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0669.2368.600.030.02
KentuckySEC0.070.0682.1481.760.050.04
OregonP120.070.0685.7185.930.050.04
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0670.3770.540.030.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0651.8551.660.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0653.5751.920.010.00
ButlerBE0.070.0678.5777.620.040.03
DePaulBE0.070.0632.1430.89-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0662.9661.410.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0660.7160.840.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0662.9661.760.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0642.8642.05-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.070.0664.2964.300.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.040.0478.5776.210.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0344.0045.06-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.040.0325.0027.77-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.040.0346.4344.09-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0340.7440.19-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.040.0322.2223.45-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.040.0357.6958.300.010.01
Iowa St.B120.040.0366.6764.750.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0385.1985.420.030.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0351.8551.810.000.00
Oregon St.P120.040.0314.2913.58-0.03-0.02
South DakotaSum0.040.0362.9662.810.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.040.0342.8643.32-0.01-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.040.0324.0022.54-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0340.0041.64-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0336.0035.97-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.040.0378.5777.800.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.040.0350.0049.820.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0346.1546.96-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0320.0021.74-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0351.7250.330.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.040.0323.0823.14-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.040.0353.5752.340.000.00
TulsaAmer0.040.0346.1547.81-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.040.0382.1479.370.020.02
AlbanyAE0.030.0358.6259.810.010.01
ClemsonACC0.040.0351.8553.680.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0340.9140.59-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.31-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.040.0380.7779.440.020.02
DuquesneA100.030.0335.7134.58-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0375.0074.370.020.02
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0048.740.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.040.0332.1431.02-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.040.0335.7134.84-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.040.0378.5777.380.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0332.1430.40-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0325.9326.05-0.02-0.01
OklahomaB120.030.0333.3333.59-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0360.7159.310.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0381.4880.840.020.02