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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


UNC Asheville

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:142.1
Current RPI:138
Expected SOS:209
Current SOS:170
Current Record:10-9
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:5-3
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-4
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:111
Expected OOC SOS:46



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-984.12.57%
19-10102.310.98%
18-11121.723.17%
17-12142.028.11%
16-13161.920.67%
15-14180.710.19%
14-15198.43.44%
13-16215.00.75%
12-17229.70.10%
11-18244.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UNC Asheville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Rhode Island (14.4)A10A84-60L0%0.0
11-17Vanderbilt (143.0)SECA79-76L0%0.0
11-19Austin Peay (214.6)OVCA79-82W100%0.0
11-22Monmouth (173.4)MAACH62-51W100%0.0
11-26Wofford (117.5)SCH85-65W100%0.0
11-29USC Upstate (335.9)ASunH82-70W100%0.0
12-3Clemson (14.0)ACCA83-52L0%0.0
12-5Furman (87.9)SCA83-72L0%0.0
12-17Western Carolina (222.1)SCH72-76L0%0.0
12-19UNC Greensboro (117.6)SCA60-67W100%0.0
12-22Saint Mary's (34.6)WCCA95-69L0%0.0
12-30Campbell (266.4)BSthH85-79W100%0.0
1-3High Point (224.9)BSthA84-74L0%0.0
1-6Radford (143.9)BSthA90-70L0%0.0
1-9Longwood (334.5)BSthH90-80W100%0.0
1-12Presbyterian (326.5)BSthA56-76W100%0.0
1-15Charleston Southern (305.1)BSthH83-73W100%0.0
1-18Winthrop (162.3)BSthA85-58L0%0.0
1-21Liberty (235.9)BSthA68-84W100%0.0
1-24Gardner Webb (228.2)BSthH0-080%9.3
1-27High Point (224.9)BSthH0-069%5.5
2-1Campbell (266.4)BSthA0-054%1.2
2-3Presbyterian (326.5)BSthH0-093%16.3
2-7Longwood (334.5)BSthA0-087%12.5
2-10Radford (143.9)BSthH0-067%4.8
2-15Liberty (235.9)BSthH0-067%5.0
2-18Charleston Southern (305.1)BSthA0-068%5.0
2-22Winthrop (162.3)BSthH0-054%1.1
2-24Gardner Webb (228.2)BSthA0-060%2.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UNC Asheville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UNC Asheville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UNC Asheville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UNC AshevilleBSth26.4226.4659.7462.415.156.57
High PointBSth3.254.5140.0047.87-0.65-0.19
RadfordBSth3.164.4955.5658.270.350.74
Gardner WebbBSth0.694.4938.8941.63-0.15-0.75
LibertyBSth3.184.4952.9457.110.190.64
LongwoodBSth3.174.4917.6516.91-2.05-2.97
PresbyterianBSth3.174.4929.4128.91-1.31-1.90
CampbellBSth3.174.4950.0049.380.00-0.06
Charleston SouthernBSth3.164.4826.6732.72-1.48-1.55
WinthropBSth3.164.4846.6758.32-0.210.75
UNC GreensboroSC3.012.0973.3370.111.400.84
Western CarolinaSC2.872.0035.2933.06-0.84-0.68
FurmanSC2.801.9764.7167.420.820.69
WoffordSC2.871.9773.3366.041.340.63
USC UpstateASun2.791.9211.7618.69-2.13-1.20
VanderbiltSEC2.771.8133.3333.42-0.92-0.60
ClemsonACC2.701.7583.3372.311.800.78
Austin PeayOVC2.701.7547.0647.71-0.16-0.08
MonmouthMAAC2.631.7229.4142.44-1.08-0.26
Rhode IslandA102.631.7282.3580.771.701.06
Saint Mary'sWCC2.631.7290.0088.592.111.33
VMISC0.610.4925.0024.15-0.30-0.25
The CitadelSC0.470.3718.7518.36-0.29-0.24
MercerSC0.300.3044.4454.86-0.030.03
SamfordSC0.300.2727.7832.66-0.13-0.09
ChattanoogaSC0.230.2422.2228.59-0.13-0.10
East Tennessee St.SC0.230.2477.7879.150.130.14
South Carolina St.MEAC0.310.2227.7831.71-0.14-0.08
North Carolina St.ACC0.380.2265.0056.340.110.03
TennesseeSEC0.300.2172.2268.930.130.08
VirginiaACC0.370.1894.7486.140.330.13
AuburnSEC0.080.1689.4777.000.060.08
GeorgiaSEC0.220.1566.6755.940.070.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.210.1555.5656.740.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.140.1568.4257.740.050.02
FloridaSEC0.140.1573.6871.560.070.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.160.1316.6724.26-0.10-0.07
CharlotteCUSA0.160.1323.5325.64-0.08-0.06
StetsonASun0.150.1333.3336.93-0.05-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.230.1366.6765.640.080.04
DavidsonA100.080.1358.8261.450.010.03
JacksonvilleASun0.070.1333.3333.77-0.02-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.230.1222.2227.33-0.13-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.080.1273.6869.640.040.05
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1242.1132.47-0.02-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.160.1242.1140.46-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.220.1252.6351.080.010.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1238.8944.080.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.220.1280.0075.060.130.06
San FranciscoWCC0.070.1250.0048.730.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.1031.5832.72-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.080.1060.0059.700.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.150.1052.9452.650.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.1058.8249.760.03-0.00
PittsburghACC0.080.1040.0030.87-0.02-0.04
North FloridaASun0.160.0931.5835.15-0.06-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.0957.8966.260.020.03
Saint LouisA100.150.0947.3746.92-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.0970.0068.220.060.03
DelawareCAA0.160.0947.3743.02-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.150.0947.3744.27-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.0957.8953.190.020.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0977.7870.480.040.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.150.0935.0031.83-0.04-0.03
Arizona St.P120.140.0978.9576.130.080.05
St. Francis PANEC0.140.0952.9459.250.010.02
MassachusettsA100.150.0950.0046.810.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.140.0985.7182.090.100.06
Georgia TechACC0.080.0952.6343.110.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.140.0980.9576.520.090.05
South CarolinaSEC0.220.0961.1151.910.050.00
DaytonA100.140.0947.3750.94-0.010.00
IonaMAAC0.150.0960.0064.110.030.02
Seton HallBE0.220.0975.0067.890.110.03
KentuckySEC0.140.0873.6867.970.070.03
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0745.0041.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0747.3746.09-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0755.0052.470.010.00
William & MaryCAA0.080.0764.7159.990.020.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0616.6724.910.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.0652.9459.340.000.01
NJITASun0.070.0638.8942.61-0.02-0.01
Penn St.B100.080.0661.9055.760.020.01
MinnesotaB100.150.0663.6457.630.040.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.060.003.07-0.07-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0620.0032.25-0.04-0.02
CornellIvy0.070.0633.3333.23-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0629.4133.93-0.03-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.070.0652.6351.690.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.070.0666.6765.520.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0670.0071.230.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0620.0041.730.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0678.9572.990.040.03
HowardMEAC0.070.0610.5327.29-0.06-0.03
MarylandB100.000.0670.0065.250.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0615.7920.91-0.05-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.000.0670.5975.950.000.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0650.0051.380.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0636.8432.76-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0642.1143.51-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0680.0078.850.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0626.3231.50-0.03-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0668.4260.860.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0668.4269.250.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.0610.5316.75-0.12-0.04
Kansas St.B120.140.0673.6862.720.070.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0625.0028.24-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.070.0640.0042.69-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0666.6768.730.020.02
UC DavisBW0.070.0658.8262.440.010.01
BelmontOVC0.140.0671.4374.660.060.03
CaliforniaP120.140.0636.8431.12-0.04-0.02
HarvardIvy0.140.0637.5046.69-0.04-0.00
DukeACC0.070.0689.4785.210.060.04
AlabamaSEC0.140.0668.4258.980.050.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0661.9063.140.020.02
HofstraCAA0.140.0657.8959.490.020.01
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0650.0050.860.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0657.1453.050.010.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0665.0065.320.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0642.1146.09-0.01-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0628.5729.940.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.060.0680.9576.240.040.03
GonzagaWCC0.060.0680.9583.260.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0627.7829.10-0.03-0.02
LSUSEC0.070.0661.1153.170.020.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0672.2258.920.030.01
PacificWCC0.130.0645.0044.47-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0610.5318.34-0.05-0.04
PortlandWCC0.000.0627.7827.280.00-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.060.0663.1657.540.020.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0633.3332.94-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.070.0375.0070.700.040.01
DenverSum0.070.0333.3336.48-0.02-0.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0321.0524.75-0.04-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0327.7838.14-0.04-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0352.6347.520.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.070.0347.0641.41-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0323.5328.690.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0368.4254.090.030.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0335.2940.48-0.02-0.01
Texas TechB120.080.0378.9571.810.050.01
TroySB0.070.0335.2942.76-0.02-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0368.4270.810.030.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0333.3337.23-0.02-0.01
BrownIvy0.070.0350.0045.140.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.070.0366.6763.070.020.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0389.4785.550.060.02
DuquesneA100.000.0370.0058.090.000.00
FordhamA100.000.0331.5829.060.00-0.01
George MasonA100.070.0345.0041.30-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0345.0043.48-0.01-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.070.0326.3230.49-0.03-0.01
New HampshireAE0.070.0333.3340.08-0.02-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0363.1663.220.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0370.0060.470.030.01
RichmondA100.000.0331.5834.360.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0051.640.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0360.0062.030.010.01
AlbanyAE0.070.0371.4370.240.030.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0365.0054.670.020.00
BucknellPat0.070.0361.9068.020.020.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
LehighPat0.070.0338.8944.75-0.02-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0383.3381.370.050.02
LouisvilleACC0.070.0378.9569.790.040.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0321.0522.020.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0363.1661.020.020.01
OhioMAC0.070.0347.0648.41-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.070.0364.7162.720.020.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0352.9460.220.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0368.4261.230.000.01
TempleAmer0.070.0352.6351.740.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0321.0544.26-0.04-0.00
YaleIvy0.070.0341.1847.56-0.01-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0312.5025.45-0.05-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0368.4264.200.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0356.2556.830.010.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.035.8819.35-0.06-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0372.2274.710.030.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6763.200.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0383.3384.240.040.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0316.6724.45-0.04-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0311.7612.81-0.05-0.02
SeattleWAC0.060.0357.8954.500.010.00
TCUB120.000.0373.6865.600.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0368.4263.960.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0330.0039.93-0.03-0.01
USCP120.070.0371.4368.280.030.01
Washington St.P120.060.0347.3741.44-0.00-0.00