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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


UNC Asheville

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:62.6
Current RPI:68
Expected SOS:194
Current SOS:209
Current Record:20-7
Expected Record:21-8
Current Conf Record:14-2
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-1
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:41
Expected OOC SOS:26



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-757.049.90%
21-866.142.93%
20-980.97.16%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UNC Asheville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11VCU (22.5)A10A80-65L0%0.0
11-14Georgia (56.5)SECA60-46L0%0.0
11-17USC Upstate (216.4)ASunA57-73W100%0.0
11-20Siena (137.2)MAACH92-80W100%0.0
11-22Furman (99.8)SCA58-64W100%0.0
11-25Kansas (2.3)B12A95-57L0%0.0
12-3Coastal Carolina (160.9)SBA77-79W100%0.0
12-6Elon (135.4)CAAA67-78W100%0.0
12-17Western Carolina (261.7)SCH59-57W100%0.0
12-19UNC Greensboro (112.4)SCH73-75L0%0.0
12-22Ohio St. (86.4)B10A79-77L0%0.0
12-29Radford (224.2)BSthA80-77L0%0.0
12-31Gardner Webb (211.6)BSthH90-85W100%0.0
1-3Liberty (160.9)BSthA57-70W100%0.0
1-7High Point (230.6)BSthH88-58W100%0.0
1-11Longwood (340.7)BSthH89-68W100%0.0
1-14Charleston Southern (302.4)BSthA67-76W100%0.0
1-19Winthrop (82.1)BSthA76-73L0%0.0
1-21Campbell (278.0)BSthH72-56W100%0.0
1-26Presbyterian (344.8)BSthA47-73W100%0.0
1-28Radford (224.2)BSthH80-69W100%0.0
2-1Charleston Southern (302.4)BSthH91-73W100%0.0
2-4High Point (230.6)BSthA71-74W100%0.0
2-9Winthrop (82.1)BSthH104-101W100%0.0
2-11Longwood (340.7)BSthA69-91W100%0.0
2-15Presbyterian (344.8)BSthH89-48W100%0.0
2-18Campbell (278.0)BSthA53-66W100%0.0
2-23Gardner Webb (211.6)BSthA0-061%3.0
2-25Liberty (160.9)BSthH0-081%9.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UNC Asheville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UNC Asheville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UNC Asheville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UNC AshevilleBSth26.4826.4680.0079.5215.8915.62
LibertyBSth2.994.5560.0061.340.601.03
PresbyterianBSth4.694.5513.0412.49-3.47-3.42
Gardner WebbBSth2.964.5252.0051.980.120.18
High PointBSth4.704.5247.8348.89-0.20-0.10
Charleston SouthernBSth4.654.5231.8232.33-1.69-1.60
RadfordBSth4.634.5037.5039.82-1.16-0.91
CampbellBSth4.634.4943.4843.29-0.60-0.60
WinthropBSth4.624.4978.2679.542.612.65
LongwoodBSth4.624.4617.3917.48-3.01-2.90
FurmanSC2.252.1266.6766.810.750.71
UNC GreensboroSC2.172.0368.0067.630.780.72
Western CarolinaSC2.101.9423.0823.56-1.13-1.02
USC UpstateASun2.081.9252.0051.660.080.06
GeorgiaSEC2.031.9152.0053.380.080.13
ElonCAA1.921.7957.6958.930.300.32
VCUA101.891.7981.4878.691.191.02
KansasB121.921.7888.8987.431.491.33
Ohio St.B101.891.7551.8550.750.070.03
SienaMAAC1.881.7550.0050.160.000.01
Coastal CarolinaSB1.851.7248.0049.20-0.07-0.03
VMISC0.470.5016.0016.75-0.32-0.33
The CitadelSC0.390.3423.0822.08-0.21-0.19
SamfordSC0.280.2455.5656.300.030.03
MercerSC0.280.2440.7440.78-0.05-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.240.2165.3866.650.070.07
WoffordSC0.210.2144.4443.90-0.02-0.03
StetsonASun0.220.1929.6328.76-0.09-0.08
AlabamaSEC0.180.1961.5459.750.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.210.1881.4881.510.130.12
William & MaryCAA0.180.1852.0053.050.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.220.1857.6955.370.030.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.140.1877.7877.990.080.10
NavyPat0.180.1550.0048.770.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.170.1571.4372.700.070.07
West VirginiaB120.170.1578.5777.800.100.08
NebraskaB100.130.1544.0042.70-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.150.1336.3636.47-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.150.1378.5776.210.090.07
Virginia TechACC0.150.1370.3769.250.060.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1344.0045.06-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.110.1341.6743.49-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.140.1228.5729.06-0.06-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.140.1225.0026.38-0.07-0.06
Wake ForestACC0.140.1257.1455.800.020.01
DaytonA100.110.1280.7779.440.070.07
George MasonA100.110.1262.9661.470.030.03
IllinoisB100.140.1255.5655.020.020.01
ManhattanMAAC0.140.1233.3332.68-0.05-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1266.6765.160.040.04
Texas TechB120.140.1260.7159.310.030.02
AuburnSEC0.110.1260.7159.670.020.02
IndianaB100.070.1253.5752.940.000.01
Kansas St.B120.100.1260.7159.890.020.02
George WashingtonA100.130.1151.8551.210.000.00
ColgatePat0.110.1031.0332.74-0.04-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.0965.3864.780.030.03
ClemsonACC0.110.0951.8553.680.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.110.0951.8552.250.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.110.0953.5751.920.010.00
GeorgetownBE0.110.0950.0049.130.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.0973.0873.880.050.04
Saint LouisA100.110.0932.1431.02-0.04-0.03
HowardMEAC0.070.0919.2321.44-0.04-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.070.0972.7374.040.030.04
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0925.0027.77-0.03-0.04
HofstraCAA0.100.0942.8642.57-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.0975.0077.120.050.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.0957.1457.270.010.01
KentuckySEC0.100.0982.1481.760.070.05
TexasB120.070.0835.7134.84-0.02-0.03
BaylorB120.100.0881.4878.550.060.05
DavidsonA100.100.0853.8552.600.010.00
Ball St.MAC0.070.0662.9661.340.020.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0664.0064.920.020.02
CreightonBE0.070.0677.7875.390.040.03
DartmouthIvy0.070.0626.0925.97-0.04-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0646.4343.89-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0650.0049.370.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0640.7440.75-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.070.0655.5655.680.010.01
MaineAE0.070.0617.2417.48-0.05-0.04
New HampshireAE0.070.0657.6958.050.010.01
NJITASun0.040.0629.6330.60-0.01-0.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0630.7732.11-0.03-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0642.3143.88-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0652.1753.700.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0641.6742.37-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.070.0677.7876.390.040.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0637.5039.90-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.040.0670.3769.130.010.02
LamarSlnd0.040.0650.0052.050.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0614.2918.10-0.03-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.070.0682.1480.660.050.04
PittsburghACC0.040.0653.5750.750.000.00
SMUAmer0.040.0685.7185.540.030.04
UMass LowellAE0.040.0633.3333.33-0.01-0.02
UMKCWAC0.070.0648.0046.99-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0669.2368.600.030.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0637.0435.10-0.01-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0660.0059.400.010.01
Little RockSB0.070.0644.0043.41-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0650.0048.510.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.070.0654.1753.210.010.00
TowsonCAA0.070.0664.2961.960.020.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0676.0076.570.040.03
VirginiaACC0.070.0666.6767.600.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.040.0656.0055.900.000.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0662.9661.410.020.01
DukeACC0.070.0678.5776.170.040.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0637.5042.38-0.02-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0620.0021.74-0.02-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.070.0653.8554.710.010.01
MichiganB100.070.0664.2963.090.020.02
UABCUSA0.070.0651.8553.220.000.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0682.1480.600.050.04
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0670.3770.540.030.02
Georgia TechACC0.070.0655.5652.750.010.00
LSUSEC0.030.0633.3331.80-0.01-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0658.6258.690.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0651.8551.130.000.00
IonaMAAC0.060.0662.0762.320.020.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0666.6764.750.020.02
MaristMAAC0.030.0624.1424.50-0.02-0.03
MarylandB100.070.0677.7876.990.040.03
Michigan St.B100.070.0659.2657.930.010.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0675.0073.470.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0682.7681.880.020.04
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0631.0331.60-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.030.0633.3333.59-0.01-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0635.7136.66-0.02-0.01
RichmondA100.070.0659.2659.930.010.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0653.3353.310.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.060.0662.9663.390.020.01
TCUB120.070.0659.2657.620.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0681.4880.840.020.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0351.8551.270.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.030.003.38-0.04-0.03
BYUWCC0.040.0365.5264.140.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0325.0027.75-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0325.9326.05-0.02-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0316.0018.13-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0344.4443.17-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0370.3767.240.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0348.0047.41-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.040.0344.0042.77-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0328.0029.86-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0326.9225.66-0.02-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.040.0312.0013.36-0.03-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0337.0436.81-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.040.0353.8552.820.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0375.0071.920.000.01
MississippiSEC0.040.0360.7159.870.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0351.8550.690.000.00
MissouriSEC0.040.0325.9325.77-0.02-0.01
OaklandHorz0.040.0374.0773.500.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0351.8551.660.000.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0358.6259.810.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0322.2224.27-0.02-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0333.3334.84-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0373.3373.730.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0350.0049.270.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.31-0.02-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0335.7134.58-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0338.4638.56-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0330.4331.13-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0344.4444.02-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0353.5751.590.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0353.8554.810.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.7442.89-0.01-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0348.1547.57-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0385.1985.420.020.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0371.4368.340.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.5462.870.010.01
Penn St.B100.000.0350.0048.740.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0360.7160.840.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0382.1480.780.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6766.780.000.01
RutgersB100.030.0342.8642.33-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0337.0438.57-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.8642.05-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0350.0047.370.00-0.00
UCLAP120.030.0388.8988.050.030.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0335.7134.80-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0382.7682.940.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0332.1431.91-0.01-0.01