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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


UNC Asheville

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:73.0
Current RPI:73
Expected SOS:201
Current SOS:201
Current Record:21-9
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:15-4
Expected Conf Record:15-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-2
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:45
Expected OOC SOS:30



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-973.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UNC Asheville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11VCU (22.0)A10A80-65L0%0.0
11-14Georgia (52.0)SECA60-46L0%0.0
11-17USC Upstate (229.0)ASunA57-73W100%0.0
11-20Siena (122.0)MAACH92-80W100%0.0
11-22Furman (96.0)SCA58-64W100%0.0
11-25Kansas (4.0)B12A95-57L0%0.0
12-3Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBA77-79W100%0.0
12-6Elon (161.0)CAAA67-78W100%0.0
12-17Western Carolina (271.0)SCH59-57W100%0.0
12-19UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCH73-75L0%0.0
12-22Ohio St. (90.0)B10A79-77L0%0.0
12-29Radford (227.0)BSthA80-77L0%0.0
12-31Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthH90-85W100%0.0
1-3Liberty (172.0)BSthA57-70W100%0.0
1-7High Point (236.0)BSthH88-58W100%0.0
1-11Longwood (343.0)BSthH89-68W100%0.0
1-14Charleston Southern (295.0)BSthA67-76W100%0.0
1-19Winthrop (70.0)BSthA76-73L0%0.0
1-21Campbell (246.0)BSthH72-56W100%0.0
1-26Presbyterian (347.0)BSthA47-73W100%0.0
1-28Radford (227.0)BSthH80-69W100%0.0
2-1Charleston Southern (295.0)BSthH91-73W100%0.0
2-4High Point (236.0)BSthA71-74W100%0.0
2-9Winthrop (70.0)BSthH104-101W100%0.0
2-11Longwood (343.0)BSthA69-91W100%0.0
2-15Presbyterian (347.0)BSthH89-48W100%0.0
2-18Campbell (246.0)BSthA53-66W100%0.0
2-23Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthA81-76L0%0.0
2-25Liberty (172.0)BSthH63-45W100%0.0
3-2Campbell (246.0)BSthN79-81L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UNC Asheville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UNC Asheville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UNC Asheville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UNC AshevilleBSth26.4626.4675.7475.7413.6213.62
CampbellBSth6.126.1246.4346.43-0.44-0.44
WinthropBSth4.534.5382.1482.142.912.91
Gardner WebbBSth4.484.4853.5753.570.320.32
RadfordBSth4.474.4739.2939.29-0.96-0.96
Charleston SouthernBSth4.474.4734.6234.62-1.38-1.38
PresbyterianBSth4.474.4711.5411.54-3.43-3.43
LibertyBSth4.444.4459.2659.260.820.82
High PointBSth4.414.4146.1546.15-0.34-0.34
LongwoodBSth4.364.3615.3815.38-3.02-3.02
FurmanSC2.032.0365.5265.520.630.63
UNC GreensboroSC1.951.9570.0070.000.780.78
USC UpstateASun1.871.8748.1548.15-0.07-0.07
Western CarolinaSC1.861.8624.1424.14-0.96-0.96
GeorgiaSEC1.841.8454.8454.840.180.18
VCUA101.721.7275.7675.760.890.89
ElonCAA1.721.7255.1755.170.180.18
KansasB121.721.7287.1087.101.271.27
Ohio St.B101.691.6951.6151.610.050.05
SienaMAAC1.691.6951.5251.520.050.05
Coastal CarolinaSB1.671.6746.6746.67-0.11-0.11
VMISC0.480.4814.2914.29-0.34-0.34
The CitadelSC0.390.3930.0030.00-0.16-0.16
SamfordSC0.270.2753.1253.120.020.02
MercerSC0.220.2243.3343.33-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.220.2243.3343.33-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.200.2051.7251.720.010.01
StetsonASun0.200.2027.5927.59-0.09-0.09
East Tennessee St.SC0.190.1978.1278.120.110.11
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.190.1984.3884.380.130.13
ChattanoogaSC0.190.1958.6258.620.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
NavyPat0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
West VirginiaB120.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
NebraskaB100.130.1336.6736.67-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.120.1236.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
DrexelCAA0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
James MadisonCAA0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
IndianaB100.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
AuburnSEC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Kansas St.B120.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
IllinoisB100.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
DaytonA100.100.1076.6776.670.060.06
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
George WashingtonA100.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
ClemsonACC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
PrincetonIvy0.080.0878.5778.570.050.05
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
HofstraCAA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
TexasB120.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
BaylorB120.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
DavidsonA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
IonaMAAC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
RichmondA100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
CreightonBE0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
MaineAE0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
TowsonCAA0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
CornellIvy0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02