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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


UMass Lowell

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:309.2
Current RPI:308
Expected SOS:299
Current SOS:288
Current Record:6-12
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:1-5
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-10
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:308
Expected OOC SOS:333



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13217.50.02%
14-14239.10.15%
13-15255.91.00%
12-16272.35.53%
11-17289.215.04%
10-18304.426.24%
9-19317.228.30%
8-20327.117.67%
7-21334.95.35%
6-22340.40.69%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UMass Lowell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Massachusetts (198.4)A10A74-69L0%0.0
11-15Marist (317.8)MAACH76-73W100%0.0
11-19Cornell (279.9)IvyH98-78W100%0.0
11-22LIU Brooklyn (276.7)NECH74-66W100%0.0
11-26Loyola MD (314.9)PatH83-75W100%0.0
11-29Sacred Heart (315.8)NECH80-87L0%0.0
12-3NJIT (276.2)ASunA78-65L0%0.0
12-5Wagner (144.0)NECA90-72L0%0.0
12-9Brown (260.9)IvyA89-75L0%0.0
12-13Boston University (198.5)PatH87-82W100%0.0
12-23Central Connecticut (253.0)NECH73-76L0%0.0
12-30Wisconsin (130.4)B10A82-53L0%0.0
1-4Vermont (55.3)AEH77-88L0%0.0
1-10Hartford (253.6)AEA84-73L0%0.0
1-13UMBC (175.7)AEH62-89L0%0.0
1-15New Hampshire (259.2)AEH62-74L0%0.0
1-18Albany (118.3)AEA70-62L0%0.0
1-21Binghamton (282.6)AEA71-79W100%0.0
1-24Stony Brook (197.0)AEH0-035%-4.4
1-27Hartford (253.6)AEH0-055%1.4
1-31Maine (331.4)AEA0-051%0.3
2-8Stony Brook (197.0)AEA0-017%-10.8
2-11Vermont (55.3)AEA0-03%-20.4
2-15Albany (118.3)AEH0-020%-9.3
2-18Binghamton (282.6)AEH0-054%1.1
2-21Maine (331.4)AEH0-073%6.7
2-24UMBC (175.7)AEA0-019%-9.7
2-27New Hampshire (259.2)AEA0-022%-8.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UMass Lowell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UMass Lowell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UMass Lowell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UMass LowellAE26.3526.3628.2130.02-11.49-10.54
HartfordAE3.424.5947.3743.95-0.18-0.55
BinghamtonAE3.304.5644.4441.19-0.37-0.80
MaineAE0.644.5510.5313.10-0.50-3.36
Stony BrookAE0.524.5036.8443.02-0.14-0.63
AlbanyAE3.154.4770.0068.841.261.68
New HampshireAE3.144.4629.4136.34-1.29-1.22
VermontAE3.004.4473.6876.401.422.34
UMBCAE3.064.4352.9452.860.180.25
LIU BrooklynNEC3.312.2842.1143.98-0.52-0.27
Sacred HeartNEC3.002.1526.3231.18-1.42-0.81
Central ConnecticutNEC3.022.1350.0046.810.00-0.14
WagnerNEC3.062.0662.5063.200.770.54
BrownIvy3.062.0446.1542.94-0.24-0.29
Boston UniversityPat3.002.0352.9455.250.180.21
CornellIvy2.851.9235.7134.56-0.81-0.59
Loyola MDPat2.931.9123.5329.73-1.55-0.77
NJITASun3.031.8835.2940.37-0.89-0.36
MassachusettsA102.781.8547.3745.03-0.15-0.18
MaristMAAC2.881.8222.2222.75-1.60-0.99
WisconsinB102.781.7947.3744.48-0.15-0.20
BryantNEC0.600.469.5217.12-0.48-0.30
DartmouthIvy0.360.4421.4326.34-0.21-0.21
ColgatePat0.610.4150.0051.030.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.160.3220.0032.24-0.10-0.11
ArmyPat0.450.3161.1160.440.100.07
Holy CrossPat0.440.3130.0032.58-0.17-0.11
QuinnipiacMAAC0.380.3135.0031.82-0.11-0.11
St. Francis PANEC0.290.3052.9459.250.020.06
YaleIvy0.400.2941.1847.61-0.07-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.390.2833.3335.21-0.13-0.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.500.2823.5332.57-0.26-0.10
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.360.2742.1144.98-0.06-0.03
HarvardIvy0.220.2637.5046.70-0.05-0.02
BucknellPat0.220.2561.9068.000.050.09
Robert MorrisNEC0.290.2457.1460.410.040.05
LafayettePat0.320.2222.2227.46-0.18-0.10
AmericanPat0.310.2225.0026.03-0.16-0.11
FairfieldMAAC0.380.2238.8944.07-0.08-0.03
RutgersB100.280.2155.0046.650.03-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.310.1957.1453.040.040.01
Boston CollegeACC0.210.1865.0054.600.060.02
SienaMAAC0.280.1828.5729.93-0.12-0.07
LehighPat0.150.1638.8944.74-0.03-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.240.1570.0060.470.100.03
RiderMAAC0.220.1565.0065.330.070.05
MarylandB100.080.1566.6763.130.030.04
NorthwesternB100.250.1555.0050.370.020.00
PennIvy0.090.1464.7162.690.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.090.1452.9460.230.010.03
NavyPat0.150.1360.0055.160.030.01
NortheasternCAA0.240.1363.1663.210.060.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.130.008.42-0.15-0.10
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.1266.6773.220.050.06
IonaMAAC0.140.1260.0064.130.030.03
FordhamA100.070.1231.5829.03-0.03-0.05
George MasonA100.140.1245.0041.29-0.01-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.1285.7183.760.000.08
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.1250.0051.640.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.070.1261.9063.170.020.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.1242.1146.09-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.150.1033.3336.93-0.05-0.03
TowsonCAA0.150.1063.1665.980.040.03
The CitadelSC0.150.0918.7518.37-0.09-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0952.6347.380.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.150.090.003.06-0.15-0.09
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.099.5217.86-0.12-0.06
George WashingtonA100.080.0945.0043.49-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.170.0983.3381.450.110.06
MemphisAmer0.140.0965.0058.540.040.02
Miami OHMAC0.140.0947.0641.38-0.01-0.02
DaytonA100.150.0947.3750.94-0.010.00
Penn St.B100.140.0961.9055.820.030.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0927.7841.03-0.03-0.02
MarquetteBE0.140.0968.4260.530.050.02
RichmondA100.070.0931.5834.35-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.140.0966.6768.750.050.03
NebraskaB100.140.0963.6459.480.040.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0757.8966.270.010.02
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0733.3333.76-0.03-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0716.6724.900.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.0752.9459.380.000.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0731.5835.15-0.03-0.02
Seton HallBE0.160.0775.0067.910.080.02
USC UpstateASun0.080.0711.1118.00-0.06-0.04
DrexelCAA0.150.0630.0030.97-0.06-0.02
ArizonaP120.080.0680.0078.940.050.04
FloridaSEC0.080.0673.6871.600.040.03
FurmanSC0.080.0666.6768.540.030.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0650.0051.390.000.00
SMUAmer0.080.0670.0070.610.030.03
TexasB120.080.0665.0058.600.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.080.0645.0045.47-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.090.0670.0058.090.040.01
West VirginiaB120.150.0680.0076.040.090.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0661.1158.710.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0617.6519.29-0.05-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0652.6347.500.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.070.0635.2935.54-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0668.4254.080.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.8959.500.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0650.0047.650.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0633.3340.35-0.02-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0617.6534.760.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.070.0627.7827.26-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.0650.0045.850.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0678.9571.750.000.03
BradleyMVC0.070.0665.0057.890.020.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0627.7838.12-0.03-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0644.4444.91-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0673.6868.040.030.02
LouisvilleACC0.070.0678.9569.820.040.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0650.0050.860.000.00
St. John'sBE0.140.0647.3742.16-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.070.0645.0043.62-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.070.0640.0042.69-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0663.6457.610.020.01
PurdueB100.070.0690.4888.390.060.04
AuburnSEC0.090.0389.4776.990.070.02
DelawareCAA0.090.0347.3743.00-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.090.0316.6716.15-0.06-0.02
SyracuseACC0.090.0368.4261.280.030.01
ToledoMAC0.090.0366.6767.670.030.01
BuffaloMAC0.080.0372.2274.940.030.02
MissouriSEC0.080.0366.6763.150.030.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0350.0052.500.000.00
ElonCAA0.080.0352.6351.090.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.080.0373.6869.660.040.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0377.7870.410.040.01
Murray St.OVC0.070.0370.5975.960.030.02
Oregon St.P120.070.0357.8950.860.010.00
TulaneAmer0.070.0363.1657.870.020.00
BaylorB120.070.0357.8953.280.010.00
BYUWCC0.070.0380.9576.240.040.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0320.0023.33-0.04-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0358.8261.440.000.01
DePaulBE0.070.0342.1134.30-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0342.1132.46-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0366.6755.900.020.00
Georgia St.SB0.070.0366.6765.550.020.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0325.0027.93-0.03-0.01
IndianaB100.070.0360.0052.880.010.00
IowaB100.000.0347.6243.940.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0376.1970.800.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0345.0047.06-0.01-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0355.5657.250.010.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0341.1839.14-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0381.8276.870.040.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0347.3746.93-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0361.1151.910.020.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0326.3230.45-0.03-0.01
TempleAmer0.070.0352.6351.740.000.00
UCLAP120.070.0365.0062.050.020.01
VCUA100.000.0360.0059.710.000.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0394.7486.110.060.02
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0338.8935.38-0.02-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0368.4270.820.030.01
XavierBE0.070.0385.7180.060.050.02