live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


UMass Lowell

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:302.1
Current RPI:298
Expected SOS:279
Current SOS:279
Current Record:10-20
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:5-11
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC RPI:300
Expected OOC SOS:330



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-20302.1100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UMass Lowell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Massachusetts (177.7)A10A90-76L0%0.0
11-14Wagner (234.4)NECH87-76W100%0.0
11-16Indiana (90.9)B10A100-78L0%0.0
11-19Fort Wayne (165.4)SumA94-81L0%0.0
11-21Liberty (160.9)BSthA84-77L0%0.0
11-22Mississippi Valley St. (338.9)SWACN76-71W100%0.0
11-26LIU Brooklyn (230.1)NECH78-82L0%0.0
11-29Marist (284.3)MAACA81-69L0%0.0
12-3NJIT (298.5)ASunH74-75L0%0.0
12-6Sacred Heart (290.3)NECA91-82L0%0.0
12-18Central Connecticut (345.1)NECH86-69W100%0.0
12-21Boston University (191.3)PatH77-75W100%0.0
12-23Loyola MD (190.7)PatA69-60L0%0.0
12-29Cornell (272.4)IvyA96-98W100%0.0
1-5Albany (141.5)AEH85-79W100%0.0
1-8Binghamton (290.7)AEA75-79W100%0.0
1-11Maine (328.5)AEA73-71L0%0.0
1-14Hartford (322.5)AEH71-55W100%0.0
1-16Stony Brook (160.2)AEH75-86L0%0.0
1-19Vermont (44.5)AEA81-67L0%0.0
1-22UMBC (161.0)AEH86-102L0%0.0
1-25New Hampshire (148.6)AEA80-71L0%0.0
2-1Albany (141.5)AEA90-77L0%0.0
2-4Binghamton (290.7)AEH60-59W100%0.0
2-6Stony Brook (160.2)AEA83-72L0%0.0
2-9Maine (328.5)AEH100-68W100%0.0
2-12Hartford (322.5)AEA87-84L0%0.0
2-15Vermont (44.5)AEH66-87L0%0.0
2-18UMBC (161.0)AEA108-102L0%0.0
2-22New Hampshire (148.6)AEH67-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UMass Lowell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UMass Lowell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UMass Lowell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UMass LowellAE26.3926.3232.2632.26-9.36-9.34
HartfordAE4.214.2328.5727.78-1.80-1.88
MaineAE4.204.2314.8115.16-2.96-2.95
BinghamtonAE4.204.2236.0037.52-1.18-1.05
AlbanyAE4.184.2059.2660.510.770.88
Stony BrookAE4.174.2057.6955.990.640.50
VermontAE4.144.1781.4881.722.612.65
New HampshireAE4.134.1654.1754.690.340.39
UMBCAE4.104.1358.3357.310.680.60
LIU BrooklynNEC1.992.0159.2657.300.370.29
Central ConnecticutNEC2.032.0119.2320.72-1.25-1.17
Sacred HeartNEC1.911.9042.8642.10-0.27-0.30
Boston UniversityPat1.881.8755.5655.270.210.20
Loyola MDPat1.881.8746.1547.15-0.14-0.11
WagnerNEC1.851.8654.1755.280.150.20
CornellIvy1.791.7826.0926.25-0.85-0.85
MaristMAAC1.781.7821.4321.99-1.02-1.00
IndianaB101.761.7551.8551.370.070.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.761.7514.8118.71-1.24-1.10
NJITASun1.731.7226.9228.03-0.80-0.76
Fort WayneSum1.731.7258.3359.080.290.31
LibertyBSth1.731.7256.0056.060.210.21
MassachusettsA101.701.7046.1545.83-0.13-0.14
St. Francis PANEC0.370.3842.3143.88-0.06-0.05
Holy CrossPat0.360.3750.0050.080.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.360.3426.0925.97-0.17-0.16
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.310.3251.7253.710.010.02
BrownIvy0.300.3137.5037.60-0.07-0.08
ColgatePat0.310.2931.0332.74-0.12-0.10
BryantNEC0.250.2935.7137.15-0.07-0.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.270.2810.7111.38-0.21-0.22
NortheasternCAA0.300.2850.0048.510.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.260.2859.0960.220.050.06
NavyPat0.240.2350.0048.770.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.240.2360.7160.840.050.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.250.2338.4638.56-0.06-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.220.2337.9339.64-0.05-0.05
ColumbiaIvy0.240.2340.9140.59-0.04-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.200.2235.7136.66-0.06-0.06
AmericanPat0.190.2125.0025.07-0.09-0.10
LafayettePat0.220.2025.9325.63-0.10-0.10
SienaMAAC0.180.1948.2848.54-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.180.1839.2938.46-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.180.1759.2660.160.030.04
RutgersB100.180.1742.8642.33-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.180.1753.3353.310.010.01
TowsonCAA0.150.1564.2961.960.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.160.1525.9327.44-0.07-0.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.160.1540.7440.75-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.160.1535.7134.58-0.04-0.05
HarvardIvy0.160.1466.6765.300.050.04
FairfieldMAAC0.150.1451.8551.130.010.00
HofstraCAA0.150.1442.8642.57-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1432.1430.40-0.05-0.05
CanisiusMAAC0.140.1458.6258.690.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.140.1431.0331.60-0.05-0.05
WinthropBSth0.130.1276.0077.350.070.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1273.0873.880.060.06
TempleAmer0.130.1248.2850.61-0.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.120.1270.3769.250.050.05
BucknellPat0.120.1273.3373.730.060.06
VCUA100.120.1282.1479.370.080.07
HoustonAmer0.120.1270.3769.130.050.04
LongwoodBSth0.090.1216.0016.19-0.06-0.08
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1182.7681.880.080.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1165.3865.420.040.03
Penn St.B100.120.1150.0048.740.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.100.0922.2222.38-0.05-0.05
StetsonASun0.100.0929.6328.76-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.070.0972.7374.040.030.04
Austin PeayOVC0.100.0930.7730.10-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.060.0959.2659.930.010.02
West VirginiaB120.090.0978.5777.800.050.05
PennIvy0.070.0947.8350.32-0.000.00
St. John'sBE0.090.0942.8642.05-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0950.0049.370.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.090.0875.0073.470.050.04
MarylandB100.090.0877.7876.990.050.05
IonaMAAC0.090.0862.0762.320.020.02
PurdueB100.060.0882.1480.780.040.05
FordhamA100.090.0844.4444.02-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0857.1457.270.010.01
ButlerBE0.090.0878.5777.620.050.05
DukeACC0.090.0878.5776.170.050.04
DavidsonA100.090.0853.8552.600.010.00
NorthwesternB100.060.0871.4368.340.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.090.0866.6766.780.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0636.3636.47-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.070.0657.1456.680.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0638.4639.08-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0625.0026.38-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0630.7733.71-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0651.8551.810.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0665.3864.780.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.070.0662.9662.810.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0642.8643.32-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0623.0822.08-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0626.0925.92-0.02-0.03
Notre DameACC0.060.0675.0074.370.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0650.0049.270.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.060.0640.0040.08-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0629.1729.85-0.03-0.02
FIUCUSA0.060.0616.0018.13-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0650.0049.670.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.060.0644.0045.26-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.060.0655.5655.680.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.7442.89-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0630.7732.11-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0612.0011.56-0.05-0.05
RadfordBSth0.060.0638.4640.55-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0674.0773.870.020.03
USC UpstateASun0.030.0650.0049.750.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.060.0658.6257.910.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0641.6743.49-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0660.0059.400.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0655.5655.100.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0640.7442.17-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0650.0050.440.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0688.8987.450.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0637.5039.90-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.060.0685.7185.540.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0670.3770.540.020.02
WoffordSC0.060.0644.4443.90-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.054.005.36-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0528.0028.91-0.03-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0552.1749.960.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0525.0027.77-0.03-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0522.2224.27-0.02-0.03
DrexelCAA0.060.0528.5729.06-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.060.0562.9661.470.020.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0537.5040.16-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0537.5042.38-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0553.8554.810.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0533.3332.68-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.060.0564.2963.090.020.01
Michigan St.B100.060.0559.2657.930.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0525.0025.84-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0530.7734.71-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0537.0438.57-0.02-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0548.0047.16-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0562.9663.390.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0559.2662.730.010.01
WisconsinB100.060.0581.4880.840.040.03
ArkansasSEC0.030.0375.0071.920.020.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0382.1481.630.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.7729.92-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.0045.06-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.030.0377.7875.390.020.02
FurmanSC0.030.0364.2964.510.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0316.0016.87-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0350.0052.050.000.00
TroySB0.030.0353.8552.820.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0369.2368.790.010.01
USCP120.030.0377.7875.870.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.030.0342.3143.98-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0352.0053.050.000.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.8553.510.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0351.7249.530.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0362.9661.760.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0331.8233.09-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.0077.120.010.02
ArizonaP120.030.0389.2987.680.020.02
DaytonA100.030.0380.7779.440.020.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0337.0435.10-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0322.2223.45-0.02-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0351.8551.210.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.03100.0099.810.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0342.8645.36-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0355.5655.020.000.00
IowaB100.030.0353.5751.590.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0366.6764.750.010.01
KansasB120.030.0389.2987.840.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0378.5778.520.020.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.7159.870.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0344.0042.70-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0346.1546.92-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.1480.660.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.030.003.38-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0329.1731.48-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0353.5752.340.000.00
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.21-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.1431.02-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0049.560.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0339.1337.81-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0314.8115.43-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.030.0364.2963.820.010.01