live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Texas A&M

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:148.0
Current RPI:148
Expected SOS:109
Current SOS:109
Current Record:17-15
Expected Record:17-15
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:181
Expected OOC SOS:255



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-15148.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Buffalo (106.0)MACH82-58W100%0.0
11-11Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACH91-67W100%0.0
11-15Rice (299.0)CUSAH68-65W100%0.0
11-19Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACH75-65W100%0.0
11-24Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndH79-62W100%0.0
11-26Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACH88-55W100%0.0
11-29Missouri St. (85.0)MVCN67-73L0%0.0
11-30SMU (53.0)AmerN52-55L0%0.0
12-4Houston (143.0)AmerH74-57W100%0.0
12-14McNeese St. (272.0)SlndH73-60W100%0.0
12-21Oklahoma (26.0)B12N52-64L0%0.0
12-31North Texas (195.0)CUSAH41-61L0%0.0
1-4Texas Pan American (312.0)WACH63-46W100%0.0
1-8Arkansas (77.0)SECH69-53W100%0.0
1-11Tennessee (42.0)SECA56-57W100%0.0
1-15South Carolina (140.0)SECH75-67W100%0.0
1-18Mississippi St. (245.0)SECA81-72L0%0.0
1-21Kentucky (17.0)SECA68-51L0%0.0
1-25Vanderbilt (120.0)SECH55-66L0%0.0
1-29South Carolina (140.0)SECA80-52L0%0.0
2-1Florida (1.0)SECA69-36L0%0.0
2-5Mississippi St. (245.0)SECH72-52W100%0.0
2-8Georgia (74.0)SECA62-50L0%0.0
2-12LSU (83.0)SECH83-73W100%0.0
2-15Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA57-54L0%0.0
2-20Alabama (124.0)SECH63-48W100%0.0
2-22Tennessee (42.0)SECH68-65W100%0.0
2-26LSU (83.0)SECA68-49L0%0.0
3-1Mississippi (94.0)SECH71-60W100%0.0
3-5Missouri (49.0)SECA57-56L0%0.0
3-8Auburn (169.0)SECH64-69L0%0.0
3-13Missouri (49.0)SECN91-83L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas A&MSEC26.0926.0945.8345.83-2.17-2.17
Mississippi St.SEC3.763.7641.9441.94-0.61-0.61
TennesseeSEC3.753.7566.6766.671.251.25
VanderbiltSEC3.753.7544.8344.83-0.39-0.39
LSUSEC3.733.7360.0060.000.750.75
South CarolinaSEC3.733.7340.6240.62-0.70-0.70
MissouriSEC3.733.7364.5264.521.081.08
MississippiSEC2.292.2959.3859.380.430.43
FloridaSEC2.292.2993.9493.942.012.01
KentuckySEC2.262.2669.7069.700.890.89
AuburnSEC2.262.2644.8344.83-0.23-0.23
GeorgiaSEC2.262.2658.0658.060.360.36
ArkansasSEC2.242.2467.7467.740.790.79
AlabamaSEC2.212.2140.0040.00-0.44-0.44
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.771.7731.2531.25-0.66-0.66
SMUAmer1.771.7770.9770.970.740.74
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.761.7621.4321.43-1.00-1.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.741.7439.2939.29-0.37-0.37
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.691.6971.4371.430.720.72
HoustonAmer1.691.6953.1253.120.110.11
McNeese St.Slnd1.661.6626.9226.92-0.77-0.77
North TexasCUSA1.641.6442.8642.86-0.23-0.23
RiceCUSA1.641.6418.5218.52-1.03-1.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC1.641.6426.6726.67-0.76-0.76
OklahomaB121.611.6170.9770.970.680.68
BuffaloMAC1.561.5666.6766.670.520.52
Missouri St.MVC1.561.5660.0060.000.310.31
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.330.3330.7730.77-0.13-0.13
Alabama A&MSWAC0.230.2342.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.210.2153.5753.570.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.200.2035.4835.48-0.06-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.200.2055.1755.170.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.180.1814.8114.81-0.13-0.13
Alcorn St.SWAC0.180.1832.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleAmer0.170.1785.2985.290.120.12
MemphisAmer0.170.1770.9770.970.070.07
New OrleansSlnd0.160.1636.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.160.1648.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.160.1657.1457.140.020.02
UTSACUSA0.150.1522.2222.22-0.09-0.09
MarshallCUSA0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Wichita St.MVC0.150.15100.00100.000.150.15
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
AkronMAC0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
Texas TechB120.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
BaylorB120.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.1446.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.1493.1093.100.120.12
Louisiana TechCUSA0.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
TulsaCUSA0.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
TexasB120.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
TempleAmer0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1114.8114.81-0.08-0.08
LamarSlnd0.110.1110.7110.71-0.08-0.08
Georgia St.SB0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
UABCUSA0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
IdahoWAC0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
FIUCUSA0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
VirginiaACC0.100.1082.3582.350.060.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
UCLAP120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
RutgersAmer0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0824.0024.00-0.04-0.04
TulaneCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Michigan St.B100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
BradleyMVC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Iowa St.B120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
LipscombASun0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Kansas St.B120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0734.6234.62-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
SeattleWAC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Appalachian St.SC0.020.0219.2319.23-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
DavidsonSC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
High PointBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Seton HallBE0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
WoffordSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
TroySB0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00