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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Texas A&M

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:102.0
Current RPI:102
Expected SOS:63
Current SOS:63
Current Record:18-15
Expected Record:18-15
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:51
Expected OOC SOS:61



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-15102.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Louisiana Tech (53.0)WACH71-59W100%0.0
11-12Troy (279.0)SBH83-65W100%0.0
11-15Prairie View A&M (315.0)SWACH81-59W100%0.0
11-19St. Louis (15.0)A10N70-49L0%0.0
11-20Washington St. (196.0)P12N54-55W100%0.0
11-26Northwestern St. (78.0)SlndH78-65W100%0.0
12-1Houston (197.0)CUSAA59-70W100%0.0
12-5Stephen F. Austin (65.0)SlndH62-54W100%0.0
12-15Oklahoma (39.0)B12N64-54L0%0.0
12-18Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)SlndH66-54W100%0.0
12-22Southern (180.0)SWACH51-53L0%0.0
12-29Army (205.0)PatH61-55W100%0.0
1-3Houston Baptist (310.0)GWCH67-59W100%0.0
1-9Arkansas (89.0)SECH69-51W100%0.0
1-12Kentucky (56.0)SECA71-83W100%0.0
1-17Florida (7.0)SECH47-68L0%0.0
1-19Alabama (60.0)SECA50-49L0%0.0
1-23Louisiana St. (86.0)SECA58-54L0%0.0
1-26Georgia (140.0)SECH52-59L0%0.0
1-30Mississippi St. (232.0)SECA49-55W100%0.0
2-2Kentucky (56.0)SECH68-72L0%0.0
2-7Missouri (36.0)SECH70-68W100%0.0
2-9Georgia (140.0)SECA52-46L0%0.0
2-13Mississippi (47.0)SECH69-67W100%0.0
2-16Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA63-56L0%0.0
2-20Auburn (252.0)SECA56-65W100%0.0
2-23Tennessee (59.0)SECH85-93L0%0.0
2-27Mississippi (47.0)SECA82-73L0%0.0
3-2South Carolina (222.0)SECH74-56W100%0.0
3-6Louisiana St. (86.0)SECH57-68L0%0.0
3-9Arkansas (89.0)SECA73-62L0%0.0
3-13Auburn (252.0)SECN71-62W100%0.0
3-14Missouri (36.0)SECN62-50L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas A&MSEC26.1326.1349.6649.66-0.18-0.18
Louisiana St.SEC3.693.6958.6258.620.640.64
MississippiSEC3.693.6978.1278.122.072.07
MissouriSEC3.693.6970.9770.971.551.55
ArkansasSEC3.673.6760.0060.000.730.73
AuburnSEC3.643.6430.0030.00-1.46-1.46
GeorgiaSEC3.603.6043.3343.33-0.48-0.48
KentuckySEC3.593.5966.6766.671.201.20
FloridaSEC2.292.2978.1278.121.291.29
VanderbiltSEC2.292.2946.8846.88-0.14-0.14
AlabamaSEC2.202.2061.2961.290.500.50
Mississippi St.SEC2.192.1932.2632.26-0.78-0.78
TennesseeSEC2.192.1961.2961.290.500.50
South CarolinaSEC2.172.1745.1645.16-0.21-0.21
Northwestern St.Slnd1.801.8073.0873.080.830.83
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.681.6888.4688.461.291.29
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.681.6818.5218.52-1.06-1.06
OklahomaB121.651.6563.3363.330.440.44
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.641.6440.0040.00-0.33-0.33
HoustonCUSA1.591.5962.0762.070.380.38
Houston BaptistGWC1.591.5940.7440.74-0.29-0.29
SouthernSWAC1.591.5967.8667.860.570.57
Louisiana TechWAC1.571.5783.3383.331.041.04
TroySB1.561.5637.5037.50-0.39-0.39
ArmyPat1.541.5451.7251.720.050.05
St. LouisA101.521.5281.2581.250.950.95
Washington St.P121.521.5241.9441.94-0.24-0.24
McNeese St.Slnd0.280.2839.2939.29-0.06-0.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.270.2745.1645.16-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.240.2428.1228.12-0.11-0.11
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.240.2437.9337.93-0.06-0.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.240.2430.0030.00-0.09-0.09
Alabama A&MSWAC0.220.2231.0331.03-0.08-0.08
GramblingSWAC0.200.200.000.00-0.20-0.20
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.190.1917.8617.86-0.13-0.13
Oral RobertsSlnd0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.190.1939.2939.29-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.190.199.689.68-0.15-0.15
Alabama St.SWAC0.170.1729.0329.03-0.07-0.07
UCLAP120.170.1773.5373.530.080.08
Arkansas Little RockSB0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.150.1535.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Texas El PasoCUSA0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeSB0.140.1484.8584.850.100.10
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Texas ChristianB120.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Texas San AntonioWAC0.120.1231.2531.25-0.05-0.05
BucknellPat0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.1214.8114.81-0.09-0.09
Florida A&MMEAC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Virginia CommonwealthA100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Chicago St.GWC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.110.1148.0048.00-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Iowa St.B120.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
LafayettePat0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
OregonP120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Southern MississippiCUSA0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Texas TechB120.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
KansasB120.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
MarquetteBE0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Arizona St.P120.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Southern CaliforniaP120.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
WashingtonP120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
LouisvilleBE0.090.0985.2985.290.070.07
Florida AtlanticSB0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ButlerA100.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
New Orleansind0.080.0818.1818.18-0.05-0.05
DenverWAC0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Utah St.WAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
AmericanPat0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
San Jose St.WAC0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Florida InternationalSB0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
UABCUSA0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IdahoWAC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
TexasB120.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Kansas St.B120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
HawaiiBW0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Oregon St.P120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
Appalachian St.SC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
StanfordP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
XavierA100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
North TexasSB0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0728.0028.00-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Texas St.WAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.7593.750.040.04
Georgia St.CAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Long IslandNEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
MarylandACC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
Notre DameBE0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
OaklandSum0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
SamfordSC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South FloridaBE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SyracuseBE0.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
CharlotteA100.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.040.0442.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
RutgersBE0.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.040.0444.8344.83-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.037.147.14-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0353.8553.850.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
CincinnatiBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
NC AshevilleBSth0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
St. John'sBE0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UtahP120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
DavidsonSC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
RichmondA100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TempleA100.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00