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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.

Texas A&M

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:165.0
Current RPI:165
Expected SOS:61
Current SOS:61
Current Record:13-18
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:5-15
Expected Conf Record:5-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:192
Expected OOC SOS:311


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18165.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Liberty (283.0)BSthH81-59W100%0.0
11-13Southern (281.0)SWACH83-58W100%0.0
11-17Mississippi St. (75.0)SECN69-60L0%0.0
11-18St. John's (159.0)BEA57-58W100%0.0
11-26Texas A&M Corpus Chris (319.0)SlndH56-43W100%0.0
11-30Alcorn St. (335.0)SWACH56-44W100%0.0
12-3Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndH55-42W100%0.0
12-7Sam Houston St. (273.0)SlndH64-37W100%0.0
12-10Louisiana Monroe (317.0)SBH67-54W100%0.0
12-17Florida (30.0)SECN84-64L0%0.0
12-22Rice (171.0)CUSAH58-65L0%0.0
1-2Baylor (8.0)B12A61-52L0%0.0
1-7Iowa St. (33.0)B12H50-74L0%0.0
1-11Texas (50.0)B12A61-51L0%0.0
1-14Texas Tech (241.0)B12H67-54W100%0.0
1-16Missouri (10.0)B12A70-51L0%0.0
1-21Oklahoma (137.0)B12H81-75W100%0.0
1-23Kansas (6.0)B12A64-54L0%0.0
1-28Oklahoma St. (124.0)B12H76-61W100%0.0
2-1Baylor (8.0)B12H60-63L0%0.0
2-4Kansas St. (45.0)B12A64-53L0%0.0
2-6Texas (50.0)B12H68-70L0%0.0
2-11Iowa St. (33.0)B12A69-46L0%0.0
2-14Texas Tech (241.0)B12A38-47W100%0.0
2-18Missouri (10.0)B12H62-71L0%0.0
2-22Kansas (6.0)B12H58-66L0%0.0
2-25Oklahoma St. (124.0)B12A60-42L0%0.0
2-28Kansas St. (45.0)B12H70-76L0%0.0
3-3Oklahoma (137.0)B12A65-62L0%0.0
3-7Oklahoma (137.0)B12N53-62W100%0.0
3-8Kansas (6.0)B12N83-66L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas A&MB1226.4626.4635.7735.77-7.53-7.53
KansasB125.745.7480.0080.003.453.45
OklahomaB125.695.6950.0050.000.000.00
BaylorB124.334.3377.4277.422.372.37
TexasB124.294.2958.0658.060.690.69
MissouriB124.284.2887.5087.503.213.21
Oklahoma St.B124.254.2543.3343.33-0.57-0.57
Texas TechB124.234.2327.5927.59-1.90-1.90
Iowa St.B124.204.2066.6766.671.401.40
Kansas St.B124.174.1765.5265.521.301.30
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.861.8620.6920.69-1.09-1.09
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.811.8159.2659.260.330.33
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.801.8033.3333.33-0.60-0.60
RiceCUSA1.771.7746.4346.43-0.13-0.13
Mississippi St.SEC1.721.7264.5264.520.500.50
SouthernSWAC1.701.7051.8551.850.060.06
Alcorn St.SWAC1.671.6725.9325.93-0.80-0.80
FloridaSEC1.641.6468.7568.750.610.61
Louisiana MonroeSB1.641.6411.1111.11-1.27-1.27
LibertyBSth1.611.6139.2939.29-0.35-0.35
St. John'sBE1.611.6141.9441.94-0.26-0.26
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.270.2737.9337.93-0.07-0.07
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.270.2774.1974.190.130.13
Northwestern St.Slnd0.260.2644.8344.83-0.03-0.03
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.220.2253.3353.330.010.01
Texas St.Slnd0.220.2234.6234.62-0.07-0.07
North TexasSB0.210.2151.7251.720.010.01
West VirginiaBE0.210.2159.3859.380.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
KentuckySEC0.200.2094.1294.120.170.17
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.190.1934.6234.62-0.06-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.190.1945.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.190.1928.5728.57-0.08-0.08
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.190.1963.6463.640.050.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.190.1920.0020.00-0.11-0.11
GramblingSWAC0.170.1714.2914.29-0.12-0.12
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Texas El PasoCUSA0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
HoustonCUSA0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.1434.4834.48-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
CincinnatiBE0.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
William & MaryCAA0.130.1316.1316.13-0.09-0.09
Florida AtlanticSB0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1310.3410.34-0.10-0.10
HowardMEAC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
GeorgetownBE0.120.1273.3373.330.060.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1219.2319.23-0.07-0.07
TulaneCUSA0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
TroySB0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Southern MethodistCUSA0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
TulsaCUSA0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
LehighPat0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
TennesseeSEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
DePaulBE0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Notre DameBE0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
PittsburghBE0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
South FloridaBE0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Ohio St.B100.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0823.0823.08-0.05-0.05
DenverSB0.080.0870.9770.970.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Texas ChristianMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
St. LouisA100.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
Washington St.P120.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TempleA100.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
North FloridaASun0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
AuburnSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Louisiana St.SEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.076.676.67-0.06-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
DavidsonSC0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
North DakotaGWC0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.070.0718.7518.75-0.05-0.05
TowsonCAA0.070.073.123.12-0.07-0.07
VillanovaBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0639.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
CampbellBSth0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Virginia Military InstBSth0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Utah St.WAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IowaB100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LipscombASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
StanfordP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
RutgersBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SyracuseBE0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
Boston UniversityAE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.050.056.456.45-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
NavyPat0.050.057.147.14-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Middle TennesseeSB0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
NebraskaB100.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.CAA0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MemphisCUSA0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.020.0265.3865.380.010.01