live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 19, 2014.


Texas A&M

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:54.7
Current RPI:42
Expected SOS:61
Current SOS:72
Current Record:7-2
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:34
Expected OOC SOS:81



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-311.00.01%
26-411.40.09%
25-515.40.48%
24-619.11.84%
23-723.75.14%
22-829.611.34%
21-937.816.50%
20-1048.420.25%
19-1160.718.69%
18-1274.813.41%
17-1390.97.48%
16-14107.73.23%
15-15124.21.07%
14-16143.30.35%
13-17159.30.10%
12-18183.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Northwestern St. (265.3)SlndH109-68W100%0.0
11-20Dayton (74.3)A10N55-53L0%0.0
11-21College of Charleston (183.5)CAAN50-59W100%0.0
11-23New Mexico (107.4)MWCN51-64W100%0.0
11-28New Orleans (235.4)SlndH87-65W100%0.0
12-3Sam Houston St. (105.2)SlndH66-63W100%0.0
12-6Arizona St. (98.7)P12H72-71W100%0.0
12-9Baylor (10.4)B12A77-63L0%0.0
12-13Youngstown St. (213.1)HorzH81-63W100%0.0
12-20Kansas St. (133.5)B12N0-070%6.0
12-30Mercer (235.4)SCH0-093%17.4
1-3Hartford (214.7)AEH0-093%16.9
1-6Alabama (82.4)SECA0-044%-1.6
1-10Kentucky (1.4)SECH0-011%-14.3
1-13Mississippi St. (212.4)SECH0-089%14.3
1-17LSU (68.4)SECA0-042%-2.3
1-21Missouri (177.3)SECH0-090%15.1
1-24Tennessee (133.3)SECA0-058%2.4
1-27Auburn (186.5)SECA0-068%5.5
1-31Vanderbilt (90.9)SECH0-070%6.2
2-4Mississippi (99.7)SECA0-052%0.6
2-7Missouri (177.3)SECA0-071%6.4
2-11Georgia (53.1)SECH0-063%3.9
2-14Florida (42.1)SECH0-051%0.4
2-17LSU (68.4)SECH0-071%6.5
2-21South Carolina (38.5)SECA0-023%-8.6
2-24Arkansas (42.6)SECA0-031%-5.9
2-28Auburn (186.5)SECH0-089%14.2
3-3Florida (42.1)SECA0-024%-8.3
3-7Alabama (82.4)SECH0-073%7.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas A&MSEC28.1326.1275.7664.0514.497.34
LSUSEC0.354.0080.0065.450.211.24
AuburnSEC0.003.9744.4436.93-0.00-1.04
AlabamaSEC0.283.9466.6755.600.090.44
MissouriSEC0.003.9144.4432.80-0.00-1.34
FloridaSEC0.003.9160.0064.270.001.12
ArkansasSEC0.312.3677.7871.850.171.03
KentuckySEC0.002.36100.0095.320.002.14
GeorgiaSEC0.002.3662.5060.270.000.48
TennesseeSEC0.002.3555.5645.750.00-0.20
VanderbiltSEC0.282.3575.0061.360.140.54
MississippiSEC0.002.3570.0052.680.000.13
South CarolinaSEC0.282.3366.6765.740.090.73
Mississippi St.SEC0.002.3050.0040.600.00-0.43
Northwestern St.Slnd5.561.790.0038.38-5.56-0.42
Sam Houston St.Slnd5.561.7957.1476.440.790.95
Kansas St.B120.001.7860.0037.380.00-0.45
BaylorB125.561.7888.8972.904.320.81
New OrleansSlnd5.561.7625.0048.57-2.78-0.05
Arizona St.P125.561.7266.6755.421.850.19
MercerSC0.001.7244.4445.87-0.00-0.14
College of CharlestonCAA5.561.7255.5646.880.62-0.11
DaytonA105.561.7275.0068.942.780.65
HartfordAE0.001.6750.0052.410.000.08
New MexicoMWC5.561.6777.7860.773.090.36
Youngstown St.Horz5.561.6750.0045.440.00-0.15
McNeese St.Slnd0.280.2825.0048.53-0.14-0.01
Texas TechB120.560.2590.0055.490.440.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.280.230.0017.19-0.28-0.15
Iowa St.B120.000.2288.8963.400.000.06
KansasB120.000.2288.8969.210.000.08
TCUB120.560.20100.0066.920.560.07
OklahomaB120.560.2077.7867.320.310.07
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1988.8963.880.000.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.280.1911.1144.75-0.22-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.280.1966.6777.530.090.11
West VirginiaB120.280.1990.0067.450.220.07
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1720.0041.08-0.00-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.170.0018.32-0.00-0.11
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1720.0045.49-0.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.1780.0070.970.000.07
ClemsonACC0.000.1660.0044.120.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1625.0028.59-0.00-0.07
ValparaisoHorz0.280.1480.0070.970.170.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1433.3334.61-0.00-0.04
ColoradoP120.000.1466.6757.620.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.1477.7855.570.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.14100.0082.300.000.09
TexasB120.000.1490.0081.650.000.09
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1316.6719.31-0.00-0.08
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.1320.0039.24-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.1314.2933.59-0.00-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.830.1133.3345.26-0.28-0.01
UNLVMWC0.620.1175.0049.970.31-0.00
UMKCWAC0.250.1122.2242.00-0.14-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.1172.7366.650.000.04
Saint LouisA100.000.1160.0033.900.00-0.04
PurdueB100.000.1172.7363.770.000.03
ElonCAA0.000.1137.5047.90-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1144.4446.81-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1142.8626.94-0.00-0.05
TowsonCAA0.000.1166.6751.280.000.00
UCLAP120.000.1172.7357.230.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.590.1150.0057.700.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.1130.0036.94-0.00-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.1157.1456.650.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.1075.0074.680.000.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0942.8652.90-0.000.01
WoffordSC0.350.0977.7875.790.190.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.310.0918.1821.03-0.20-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.000.0933.3355.14-0.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.250.0922.2237.12-0.14-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0944.4448.82-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0940.0049.77-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0971.4364.140.000.02
FurmanSC0.280.0822.2231.52-0.15-0.03
The CitadelSC0.280.0816.6730.30-0.19-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.08100.0078.490.000.05
North FloridaASun0.000.0850.0057.210.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0877.7851.830.000.00
IllinoisB100.280.0872.7365.120.130.03
La SalleA100.000.0850.0049.930.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.000.0822.2238.12-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.560.0836.3665.17-0.150.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0854.5559.120.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0844.4449.69-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0860.0052.190.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0857.1470.410.000.03
George MasonA100.560.0825.0026.38-0.28-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.0850.0038.230.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0810.0018.22-0.00-0.05
MassachusettsA100.000.0860.0055.280.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.280.0837.5050.60-0.070.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0881.8266.320.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0870.0072.100.000.04
OregonP120.000.0866.6757.860.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0818.1827.79-0.00-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.0850.0038.520.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.600.0627.2738.75-0.27-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3348.78-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0011.87-0.00-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3349.72-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0675.0077.200.000.03
MaineAE0.000.0611.1121.27-0.00-0.03
New HampshireAE0.000.0657.1464.570.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0630.0031.32-0.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0655.5654.330.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0610.0020.97-0.00-0.03
VermontAE0.000.0644.4457.69-0.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0660.0057.640.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.280.060.0039.69-0.28-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0650.0046.960.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.250.0636.3633.52-0.07-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.560.0671.4363.270.240.02
SamfordSC0.000.0633.3331.23-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.0633.3338.93-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0690.0067.320.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.280.0618.1831.71-0.18-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.280.0660.0063.510.060.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1461.580.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0637.5034.46-0.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0675.0069.170.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.590.0666.6742.760.20-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0628.5731.22-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0628.5728.06-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0630.0029.59-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0650.0047.740.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0644.4445.51-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0670.0073.030.000.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.0644.4444.86-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0065.210.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0015.18-0.00-0.04
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0056.900.000.01
VCUA100.000.0670.0071.450.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0687.5085.540.000.04
WinthropBSth0.000.0625.0044.57-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0677.7873.540.000.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0533.3342.54-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0587.5076.810.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0536.3644.80-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.280.0560.0049.590.06-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.050.0034.05-0.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.0533.3339.50-0.00-0.01
USCP120.280.0560.0036.070.06-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0590.9168.690.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.050.007.43-0.00-0.05
DrexelCAA0.000.0525.0036.23-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0566.6759.590.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0577.7878.860.000.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.0570.0060.840.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0566.6757.890.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0590.0081.790.000.03
StanfordP120.000.0575.0057.490.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0550.0053.800.000.00
UtahP120.000.0577.7879.680.000.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0528.5742.44-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.560.0345.4554.26-0.050.00
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.340.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.560.0354.5557.650.050.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.560.0354.5544.640.05-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.560.0372.7367.410.250.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.350.0360.0075.470.070.02
FairfieldMAAC0.350.0344.4440.07-0.04-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.350.0333.3341.24-0.12-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0322.2230.49-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.250.0385.7170.370.180.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0344.4450.85-0.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0357.1453.100.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.250.0366.6764.740.080.01
Kent St.MAC0.250.0375.0059.530.130.01
LongwoodBSth0.250.0320.0026.51-0.15-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0312.5029.32-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3343.01-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0390.9172.430.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0344.4449.63-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0053.130.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.250.0330.0039.58-0.10-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0350.0058.380.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0336.3647.58-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.170.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.170.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.65-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.34-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0038.110.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6726.71-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0337.5064.18-0.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0314.2945.11-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.310.030.0028.67-0.31-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0333.3345.98-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.310.0375.0067.160.150.01
ButlerBE0.000.0380.0072.370.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.280.0336.3638.89-0.08-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0052.110.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6766.380.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0390.0090.870.000.02
Idaho St.BSky0.280.0312.5032.33-0.21-0.01
MemphisAmer0.280.0355.5660.240.030.01
Miami OHMAC0.310.0330.0028.56-0.12-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0380.0066.580.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0310.0018.50-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0311.1125.05-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0381.8264.670.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0337.5033.00-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5073.430.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0355.5657.270.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0360.0034.920.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0355.5640.440.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.007.81-0.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0040.680.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0388.8955.090.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0360.0064.800.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0333.3363.11-0.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0322.2230.55-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3332.70-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0377.7870.500.000.01
CampbellBSth0.280.0325.0044.56-0.14-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0342.8649.88-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.280.030.0011.34-0.28-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0377.7868.980.000.01
ColgatePat0.280.0320.0043.07-0.17-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0362.5064.770.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.0375.0051.760.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0340.0046.66-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0068.680.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0385.7172.890.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6772.800.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0337.5047.68-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0340.0050.17-0.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.970.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.280.0325.0023.09-0.14-0.01
MarylandB100.280.0390.9167.370.230.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0322.2228.76-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0344.4455.60-0.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.96-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0336.3647.56-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.280.0375.0057.990.140.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6752.850.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0372.7353.500.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0370.0071.300.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.280.0320.0029.91-0.17-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0314.2929.35-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0355.5655.500.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0333.3340.82-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0071.400.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0340.0028.84-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0355.5649.770.00-0.00