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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Texas A&M

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:16.5
Current RPI:14
Expected SOS:56
Current SOS:54
Current Record:18-4
Expected Record:25-6
Current Conf Record:7-2
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:15
Expected OOC SOS:46



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-47.610.64%
26-511.728.14%
25-616.332.43%
24-721.619.79%
23-828.87.08%
22-938.31.66%
21-1050.80.23%
20-1166.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13USC Upstate (320.8)ASunH104-64W100%0.0
11-16Southeastern Louisiana (334.7)SlndH100-58W100%0.0
11-19Texas A&M Corpus Chris (121.1)SlndH95-70W100%0.0
11-21UNC Asheville (139.0)BSthH75-47W100%0.0
11-25Texas (27.9)B12N73-84W100%0.0
11-26Gonzaga (50.2)WCCN61-62W100%0.0
11-27Syracuse (50.8)ACCN67-74L0%0.0
12-2Florida Gulf Coast (224.8)ASunH75-65W100%0.0
12-5Arizona St. (83.3)P12A67-54L0%0.0
12-12Kansas St. (74.1)B12H78-68W100%0.0
12-19Baylor (27.3)B12H80-61W100%0.0
12-29Cal Poly (208.6)BWH82-63W100%0.0
1-2Arkansas (91.4)SECH92-69W100%0.0
1-6Mississippi St. (171.8)SECA60-61W100%0.0
1-9Tennessee (113.4)SECA88-92W100%0.0
1-12Florida (22.5)SECH71-68W100%0.0
1-16Georgia (81.2)SECA45-79W100%0.0
1-19LSU (82.1)SECH71-57W100%0.0
1-23Missouri (216.5)SECH66-53W100%0.0
1-27Arkansas (91.4)SECA74-71L0%0.0
1-30Iowa St. (19.2)B12H72-62W100%0.0
2-4Vanderbilt (43.7)SECA77-60L0%0.0
2-6South Carolina (56.3)SECH0-081%9.8
2-10Alabama (85.4)SECA0-076%7.6
2-13LSU (82.1)SECA0-065%4.2
2-16Mississippi (129.0)SECH0-091%14.9
2-20Kentucky (26.3)SECH0-067%4.9
2-24Mississippi St. (171.8)SECH0-091%14.6
2-27Missouri (216.5)SECA0-089%13.2
3-1Auburn (156.6)SECA0-086%12.0
3-5Vanderbilt (43.7)SECH0-064%4.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas A&MSEC26.2826.1083.3381.3417.5216.36
ArkansasSEC4.863.8350.0055.190.000.40
MissouriSEC2.603.8138.1032.72-0.62-1.32
VanderbiltSEC2.643.8157.1462.380.380.94
LSUSEC2.543.7866.6762.340.850.93
Mississippi St.SEC2.533.7845.0044.41-0.25-0.42
TennesseeSEC2.592.3052.3849.860.12-0.01
FloridaSEC2.702.2871.4370.061.160.91
MississippiSEC0.322.2763.6457.630.090.35
KentuckySEC0.412.2772.7370.920.190.95
GeorgiaSEC2.742.2763.1658.080.720.37
South CarolinaSEC0.272.2585.7178.010.191.26
AlabamaSEC0.212.2557.1453.280.030.15
AuburnSEC0.262.2242.8638.01-0.04-0.53
Kansas St.B122.541.8861.9057.400.600.28
TexasB122.541.8571.4363.831.090.51
BaylorB122.541.8580.0069.671.520.73
Iowa St.B122.431.7776.1971.141.270.75
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.381.7047.3751.58-0.130.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.441.7077.7873.011.360.78
USC UpstateASun2.331.6725.0025.99-1.16-0.80
Cal PolyBW2.331.6433.3337.55-0.78-0.41
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.331.6411.1126.27-1.81-0.78
Arizona St.P122.271.6450.0048.580.00-0.05
GonzagaWCC2.321.6480.9578.851.440.95
UNC AshevilleBSth2.321.6466.6767.900.770.59
SyracuseACC2.271.6165.2261.460.690.37
Texas TechB120.370.3261.9054.010.090.03
KansasB120.260.2980.9577.000.160.16
TCUB120.320.2645.4537.84-0.03-0.06
Oklahoma St.B120.260.2650.0045.730.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.260.2690.4884.890.210.18
West VirginiaB120.260.2481.8278.720.160.14
Kennesaw St.ASun0.270.2322.7324.28-0.15-0.12
North FloridaASun0.270.2368.1869.350.100.09
Northwestern St.Slnd0.280.2218.7526.09-0.17-0.10
Gardner WebbBSth0.270.1942.8647.27-0.04-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.250.1845.4542.14-0.02-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.320.1654.5552.750.030.01
Florida St.ACC0.170.1668.1863.250.060.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1652.1749.340.01-0.00
LipscombASun0.110.1521.7427.64-0.06-0.07
JacksonvilleASun0.220.1547.6247.86-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.110.1552.1754.520.000.01
WinthropBSth0.160.1465.0063.370.050.04
Austin PeayOVC0.230.1434.7837.55-0.07-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.220.1468.7574.730.080.07
ClemsonACC0.160.1463.6462.340.040.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.170.1418.7533.17-0.11-0.05
UCLAP120.160.1456.5253.350.020.01
SouthernSWAC0.220.1363.1666.150.060.04
ArizonaP120.150.1378.2677.230.090.07
WashingtonP120.250.1368.1862.190.090.03
DaytonA100.150.1385.7181.220.110.08
StanfordP120.200.1352.6347.690.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.110.1225.0029.75-0.06-0.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1133.3333.55-0.00-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.060.1129.4138.47-0.02-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1155.5650.840.010.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.210.1125.0029.29-0.10-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.160.1147.6257.27-0.010.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.1121.7424.60-0.09-0.05
XavierBE0.050.1190.9184.430.040.07
Miami FLACC0.150.1180.9575.640.090.05
St. John'sBE0.100.1027.2724.41-0.05-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.150.1086.3680.660.110.06
WoffordSC0.100.1038.1043.35-0.02-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.110.0926.3227.34-0.05-0.04
HawaiiBW0.060.0983.3380.130.040.05
NavyPat0.160.0965.2265.230.050.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.0940.0049.74-0.02-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.0985.0085.230.080.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.120.0953.3355.180.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0947.3750.51-0.000.00
UTSACUSA0.170.0814.2913.97-0.12-0.06
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0857.8957.330.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0816.6724.27-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0810.0015.28-0.05-0.06
UMKCWAC0.110.0830.0034.84-0.04-0.03
ElonCAA0.160.0854.5553.020.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0836.8437.30-0.01-0.02
USCP120.110.0878.2673.130.060.04
ConnecticutAmer0.150.0872.7372.440.070.04
Washington St.P120.100.0838.1033.45-0.02-0.03
OregonP120.100.0881.8278.210.070.05
Arkansas St.SB0.110.0845.0041.83-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0872.7366.970.020.03
MercerSC0.100.0871.4370.600.040.03
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0840.9143.01-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.0831.5833.51-0.04-0.03
IllinoisB100.100.0847.8344.51-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.100.0865.2256.530.030.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.0827.2732.84-0.05-0.03
PurdueB100.100.0882.6178.230.070.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0636.8432.84-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0630.0028.61-0.02-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0642.8651.33-0.010.00
UC DavisBW0.060.0636.8434.20-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.060.0672.7371.670.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.060.0647.8343.92-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0630.0030.38-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.110.0654.5553.780.010.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0631.8232.92-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.100.0619.0522.35-0.06-0.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0652.3853.620.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.0072.220.030.03
MassachusettsA100.060.0642.8639.84-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.110.0644.4446.94-0.01-0.00
South DakotaSum0.110.0639.1339.48-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0681.8278.320.030.03
High PointBSth0.110.0657.8961.480.020.01
LamarSlnd0.120.0633.3332.69-0.04-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.110.0650.0048.750.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.0626.0930.33-0.05-0.02
UNLVMWC0.110.0652.3857.440.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0614.2918.63-0.04-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0670.0068.920.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0625.0029.91-0.03-0.02
BYUWCC0.050.0669.5773.030.020.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.0640.9140.96-0.02-0.01
PacificWCC0.050.0621.0524.61-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0659.0958.100.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0637.5036.54-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0633.3329.23-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.100.0652.3848.890.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.0631.8232.32-0.04-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.0557.1457.930.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.100.0556.5253.460.010.00
WisconsinB100.110.0560.8755.900.020.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.0550.0056.540.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.110.0585.7184.560.080.04
CincinnatiAmer0.110.0573.9173.090.050.02
NebraskaB100.110.0552.1751.560.000.00
Seton HallBE0.060.0572.7368.630.030.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0053.090.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0540.9138.03-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0538.1047.51-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0526.3236.93-0.03-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0530.0029.98-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0545.4547.97-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0533.3332.41-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0559.0958.550.000.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0568.1863.720.020.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0520.8320.11-0.00-0.03
AkronMAC0.100.0581.8279.750.070.03
AmericanPat0.050.0531.8232.71-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0531.8226.61-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6461.810.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0561.9059.930.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0515.7922.51-0.07-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0545.0044.39-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0572.7369.920.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.100.0573.9176.040.050.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0572.7368.010.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0581.8277.490.000.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0559.0959.470.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0566.6760.120.020.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0566.6763.480.020.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0580.0070.290.030.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0535.0034.93-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0082.460.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.0566.6765.410.030.02
Virginia TechACC0.100.0552.1747.250.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0535.0036.57-0.02-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0355.0048.870.01-0.00
FIUCUSA0.060.0342.8645.93-0.01-0.00
La SalleA100.060.0321.0520.91-0.03-0.02
OhioMAC0.060.0360.0057.960.010.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0376.1976.220.030.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0331.8233.75-0.02-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0345.4541.98-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0360.0057.290.010.00
IPFWSum0.060.0373.9170.210.030.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0335.0031.39-0.02-0.01
UMBCAE0.060.0320.8325.01-0.03-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0340.9139.22-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0341.1840.28-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0321.0523.70-0.03-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0355.5660.900.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0341.6746.85-0.01-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.060.0347.6252.92-0.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.035.2610.18-0.05-0.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0366.6767.310.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0325.0029.52-0.03-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0390.4885.550.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.0336.3634.95-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0336.8441.45-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0368.1865.420.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0326.0925.56-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0357.8961.920.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0363.6464.090.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0363.6468.210.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.034.7614.01-0.05-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3333.64-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0363.6459.950.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0376.1979.640.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0373.9175.010.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0327.2730.43-0.02-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0354.5556.020.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0369.5770.030.020.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0352.1754.400.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.038.709.77-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0357.1457.510.010.00
ButlerBE0.050.0368.1866.490.020.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0365.0067.510.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0336.3642.19-0.01-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.557.91-0.05-0.02
ColgatePat0.050.0342.8643.53-0.01-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0365.0064.310.020.01
CornellIvy0.050.0344.4441.14-0.01-0.00
CreightonBE0.050.0360.8759.050.010.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0046.870.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0323.8128.31-0.03-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0336.3635.33-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0377.2771.670.030.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0361.1158.300.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0352.1747.620.00-0.00
IowaB100.050.0381.8279.900.030.02
LehighPat0.050.0330.0036.08-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0347.8350.56-0.000.00
MichiganB100.050.0372.7367.980.020.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0382.6181.380.030.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0338.1041.23-0.01-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0361.9060.410.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0352.1754.140.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0358.3354.120.000.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0360.0054.590.010.00
RichmondA100.050.0352.3853.680.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0344.4448.52-0.01-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0381.8277.440.030.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0338.1033.38-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0340.9143.37-0.01-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0347.6252.96-0.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0314.2916.31-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0370.0069.070.020.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0365.0060.810.020.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0363.6457.330.000.00
TroySB0.000.0320.0023.76-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0365.0068.750.020.01
UtahP120.000.0372.7368.550.000.01
VermontAE0.050.0356.5258.380.010.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0381.8276.020.030.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0354.5555.190.000.00