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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Texas A&M Corpus Chris

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:249.0
Current RPI:249
Expected SOS:307
Current SOS:307
Current Record:15-13
Expected Record:15-13
Current Conf Record:13-4
Expected Conf Record:13-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-6
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:330
Expected OOC SOS:249



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13249.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas A&M Corpus Chris.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Iowa St. (7.0)B12A80-50L0%0.0
11-15IPFW (115.0)SumH72-71W100%0.0
11-16Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCH60-62L0%0.0
11-17Texas Pan American (312.0)WACH72-61W100%0.0
11-20Rice (299.0)CUSAH61-63L0%0.0
11-23UTSA (306.0)CUSAA87-76L0%0.0
11-26Central Michigan (294.0)MACH64-68L0%0.0
11-30Houston (143.0)AmerA78-67L0%0.0
12-5Oklahoma (26.0)B12A78-56L0%0.0
12-20Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWH66-67L0%0.0
12-28Minnesota (50.0)B10A65-44L0%0.0
1-2Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndA66-81W100%0.0
1-4Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndA64-71W100%0.0
1-9Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndH101-87W100%0.0
1-11Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndH70-80L0%0.0
1-16McNeese St. (272.0)SlndA61-77W100%0.0
1-18Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndA67-70W100%0.0
1-23Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndH74-71W100%0.0
1-25New Orleans (260.0)SlndH62-70L0%0.0
1-30Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndA78-74L0%0.0
2-1Lamar (344.0)SlndA35-58W100%0.0
2-13Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndH84-73W100%0.0
2-15Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndH74-72W100%0.0
2-22Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndA61-66W100%0.0
3-1Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndH65-45W100%0.0
3-6McNeese St. (272.0)SlndH67-51W100%0.0
3-8Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndH58-44W100%0.0
3-14Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndN63-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas A&M Corpus Chris's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas A&M Corpus Chris's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas A&M Corpus Chris.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd26.2826.2851.4951.490.780.78
Oral RobertsSlnd4.414.4148.1548.15-0.16-0.16
Nicholls St.Slnd4.384.3850.0050.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd4.374.3716.0016.00-2.97-2.97
Sam Houston St.Slnd4.374.3766.6766.671.461.46
McNeese St.Slnd4.344.3428.0028.00-1.91-1.91
Central ArkansasSlnd4.264.2626.0926.09-2.04-2.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.702.7092.8692.862.322.32
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.692.6932.0032.00-0.97-0.97
Northwestern St.Slnd2.682.6850.0050.000.000.00
New OrleansSlnd2.602.6033.3333.33-0.87-0.87
LamarSlnd2.582.5811.1111.11-2.01-2.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC2.032.0326.6726.67-0.95-0.95
UTSACUSA1.971.9719.2319.23-1.21-1.21
RiceCUSA1.951.9514.8114.81-1.37-1.37
HoustonAmer1.881.8850.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC1.881.8846.6746.67-0.13-0.13
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.851.8543.7543.75-0.23-0.23
IPFWSum1.841.8470.0070.000.740.74
Iowa St.B121.841.8478.1278.121.041.04
OklahomaB121.841.8470.9770.970.770.77
MinnesotaB101.831.8358.0658.060.290.29
Central MichiganMAC1.811.8125.0025.00-0.91-0.91
North TexasCUSA0.330.3344.8344.83-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.310.3143.7543.75-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.300.3078.7978.790.170.17
Kansas St.B120.270.2762.5062.500.070.07
BaylorB120.260.2666.6766.670.090.09
Texas A&MSEC0.240.2453.1253.120.020.02
TexasB120.240.2469.7069.700.090.09
SMUAmer0.240.2471.8871.880.100.10
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.220.2231.0331.03-0.08-0.08
LSUSEC0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
East CarolinaCUSA0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.160.1676.4776.470.090.09
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.1648.1548.15-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.160.1670.9770.970.070.07
IUPUISum0.160.1610.3410.34-0.12-0.12
TulsaCUSA0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
MichiganB100.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
WisconsinB100.150.1578.7978.790.080.08
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.1462.0762.070.030.03
TroySB0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
IdahoWAC0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
KansasB120.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
Southern MissCUSA0.130.1380.6580.650.080.08
AuburnSEC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
ToledoMAC0.120.1281.2581.250.080.08
HawaiiBW0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Texas St.SB0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
West VirginiaB120.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
South AlabamaSB0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0946.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0978.5778.570.050.05
Montana St.BSky0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
ArmyPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
Wright St.Horz0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TulaneCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.030.033.573.57-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01