Texas A&M Corpus Chris

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	319.0
Current RPI:	319
Expected SOS:	274
Current SOS:	274
Current Record:	6-24
Expected Record:	6-24
Current Conf Record:	4-12
Expected Conf Record:	4-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-11
Current OOC Record:	2-12
Expected OOC Record:	2-12
Expected OOC RPI:	324
Expected OOC SOS:	258

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
6-24	319.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas A&M Corpus Chris.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Oklahoma St. (124.0)	B12	A	71-39	L	0%
11-14	Denver (94.0)	SB	H	58-65	L	0%
11-22	Utah St. (143.0)	WAC	H	58-55	W	100%
11-26	Texas A&M (165.0)	B12	A	56-43	L	0%
12-1	Texas Tech (241.0)	B12	H	54-61	L	0%
12-3	Houston (221.0)	CUSA	A	87-66	L	0%
12-15	South Alabama (169.0)	SB	H	64-66	L	0%
12-17	West Virginia (57.0)	BE	A	84-64	L	0%
12-19	Missouri St. (123.0)	MVC	A	66-53	L	0%
12-22	Bethune Cookman (239.0)	MEAC	N	52-61	L	0%
12-23	Kennesaw St. (331.0)	ASun	N	65-69	L	0%
12-28	Rice (171.0)	CUSA	A	78-66	L	0%
1-4	Lamar (108.0)	Slnd	H	58-74	L	0%
1-7	McNeese St. (174.0)	Slnd	H	69-71	L	0%
1-11	Texas San Antonio (196.0)	Slnd	A	49-50	W	100%
1-14	Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)	Slnd	A	67-55	L	0%
1-18	Texas Arlington (111.0)	Slnd	H	73-77	L	0%
1-21	Sam Houston St. (273.0)	Slnd	A	49-50	W	100%
1-25	Texas St. (287.0)	Slnd	H	74-68	W	100%
1-28	Stephen F. Austin (202.0)	Slnd	H	49-64	L	0%
2-1	Nicholls St. (298.0)	Slnd	A	65-61	L	0%
2-4	Northwestern St. (217.0)	Slnd	A	82-68	L	0%
2-6	Savannah St. (191.0)	MEAC	A	55-49	L	0%
2-11	Sam Houston St. (273.0)	Slnd	H	53-61	L	0%
2-15	Texas St. (287.0)	Slnd	A	79-61	L	0%
2-18	Central Michigan (280.0)	MAC	A	47-49	W	100%
2-22	Texas San Antonio (196.0)	Slnd	H	82-86	L	0%
2-25	Stephen F. Austin (202.0)	Slnd	A	74-41	L	0%
2-29	Texas Arlington (111.0)	Slnd	A	78-64	L	0%
3-3	Central Arkansas (321.0)	Slnd	H	67-65	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas A&M Corpus Chris's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas A&M Corpus Chris's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas A&M Corpus Chris.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	26.14	26.14	21.13	21.13	-15.10	-15.10
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	4.12	4.12	53.85	53.85	0.32	0.32
Texas Arlington	Slnd	4.07	4.07	72.41	72.41	1.83	1.83
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	4.07	4.07	53.57	53.57	0.29	0.29
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	4.06	4.06	30.77	30.77	-1.56	-1.56
Texas St.	Slnd	4.02	4.02	33.33	33.33	-1.34	-1.34
Lamar	Slnd	2.41	2.41	64.52	64.52	0.70	0.70
McNeese St.	Slnd	2.39	2.39	46.43	46.43	-0.17	-0.17
Nicholls St.	Slnd	2.31	2.31	25.93	25.93	-1.11	-1.11
Northwestern St.	Slnd	2.28	2.28	42.86	42.86	-0.33	-0.33
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	2.28	2.28	32.00	32.00	-0.82	-0.82
Central Arkansas	Slnd	2.25	2.25	24.00	24.00	-1.17	-1.17
Texas A&M	B12	1.92	1.92	40.00	40.00	-0.38	-0.38
Houston	CUSA	1.91	1.91	46.43	46.43	-0.14	-0.14
Texas Tech	B12	1.89	1.89	23.33	23.33	-1.01	-1.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	1.88	1.88	41.94	41.94	-0.30	-0.30
Rice	CUSA	1.78	1.78	46.43	46.43	-0.13	-0.13
Denver	SB	1.75	1.75	70.00	70.00	0.70	0.70
Utah St.	WAC	1.75	1.75	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Missouri St.	MVC	1.75	1.75	46.67	46.67	-0.12	-0.12
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.72	1.72	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
South Alabama	SB	1.72	1.72	55.56	55.56	0.19	0.19
Savannah St.	MEAC	1.72	1.72	62.07	62.07	0.41	0.41
Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.69	1.69	3.45	3.45	-1.58	-1.58
West Virginia	BE	1.69	1.69	58.06	58.06	0.27	0.27
Central Michigan	MAC	1.67	1.67	33.33	33.33	-0.56	-0.56
Texas	B12	0.40	0.40	60.61	60.61	0.08	0.08
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.29	0.29	46.88	46.88	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.26	0.26	78.79	78.79	0.15	0.15
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.26	0.26	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.25	0.25	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.24	0.24	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	B12	0.24	0.24	88.24	88.24	0.19	0.19
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.23	0.23	10.71	10.71	-0.18	-0.18
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.23	0.23	25.93	25.93	-0.11	-0.11
North Texas	SB	0.22	0.22	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.22	0.22	68.75	68.75	0.08	0.08
Toledo	MAC	0.20	0.20	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.20	0.20	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.20	0.20	25.00	25.00	-0.10	-0.10
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.19	0.19	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.19	0.19	81.82	81.82	0.12	0.12
Kansas St.	B12	0.19	0.19	67.74	67.74	0.07	0.07
Samford	SC	0.17	0.17	32.14	32.14	-0.06	-0.06
Arkansas St.	SB	0.17	0.17	39.39	39.39	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.17	0.17	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	10.34	10.34	-0.13	-0.13
Florida International	SB	0.15	0.15	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Western Kentucky	SB	0.15	0.15	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.14	0.14	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.14	0.14	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.14	0.14	81.82	81.82	0.09	0.09
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.13	0.13	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.13	0.13	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Kent St.	MAC	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.12	0.12	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.12	0.12	6.90	6.90	-0.10	-0.10
Mercer	ASun	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Christian	MWC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Bowling Green	MAC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fresno St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Jacksonville	ASun	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
St. Mary's	WCC	0.11	0.11	83.33	83.33	0.07	0.07
Hampton	MEAC	0.11	0.11	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.09	0.09	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
East Carolina	CUSA	0.09	0.09	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Stanford	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Evansville	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.08	0.08	16.13	16.13	-0.05	-0.05
Weber St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	78.57	78.57	0.05	0.05
Wichita St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	83.87	83.87	0.05	0.05
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Pittsburgh	BE	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.00	28.00	-0.03	-0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	11.11	11.11	-0.05	-0.05
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
California	P12	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Temple	A10	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	21.88	21.88	-0.03	-0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.05	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Seattle	ind	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	81.25	81.25	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	19.23	19.23	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Butler	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Utah	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	94.12	94.12	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00