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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Texas A&M Corpus Chris

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:158.0
Current RPI:158
Expected SOS:297
Current SOS:297
Current Record:17-11
Expected Record:17-11
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-4
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC RPI:143
Expected OOC SOS:230



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11158.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas A&M Corpus Chris.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACA72-94W100%0.0
11-21Texas St. (179.0)SBA69-73W100%0.0
11-29UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACH84-68W100%0.0
12-3Cal Poly (297.0)BWA82-70L0%0.0
12-5Texas A&M (92.0)SECA86-69L0%0.0
12-18UTSA (264.0)CUSAH73-69W100%0.0
12-20Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCA67-46L0%0.0
12-22Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12A92-70L0%0.0
12-31New Orleans (154.0)SlndA73-72L0%0.0
1-2Nicholls St. (252.0)SlndA68-64L0%0.0
1-7Northwestern St. (306.0)SlndH99-82W100%0.0
1-11Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndA79-46L0%0.0
1-14Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndH88-81W100%0.0
1-19Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndH58-61L0%0.0
1-21Sam Houston St. (194.0)SlndA76-62L0%0.0
1-25Lamar (232.0)SlndA66-69W100%0.0
1-28Abilene Christian (288.0)SlndH72-60W100%0.0
2-1Houston Baptist (175.0)SlndH90-79W100%0.0
2-8Southeastern Louisiana (248.0)SlndH80-75W100%0.0
2-11McNeese St. (315.0)SlndA66-73W100%0.0
2-15Incarnate Word (303.0)SlndA81-97W100%0.0
2-18Lamar (232.0)SlndH70-63W100%0.0
2-22Abilene Christian (288.0)SlndA44-56W100%0.0
2-25McNeese St. (315.0)SlndH81-70W100%0.0
3-1Houston Baptist (175.0)SlndA94-80L0%0.0
3-4Incarnate Word (303.0)SlndH81-64W100%0.0
3-10Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndN77-69W100%0.0
3-11New Orleans (154.0)SlndN68-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas A&M Corpus Chris's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas A&M Corpus Chris's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas A&M Corpus Chris.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd26.5426.5466.3866.388.698.69
Stephen F. AustinSlnd6.216.2150.0050.000.000.00
LamarSlnd4.614.6155.5655.560.510.51
New OrleansSlnd4.544.5457.6957.690.700.70
Incarnate WordSlnd4.454.4534.7834.78-1.35-1.35
Houston BaptistSlnd4.454.4550.0050.000.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd4.454.4520.8320.83-2.59-2.59
Abilene ChristianSlnd4.384.3839.1339.13-0.95-0.95
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC3.663.6625.9325.93-1.76-1.76
Sam Houston St.Slnd3.003.0055.1755.170.310.31
Central ArkansasSlnd2.802.8025.8125.81-1.35-1.35
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.772.7748.2848.28-0.10-0.10
Northwestern St.Slnd2.752.7537.5037.50-0.69-0.69
Nicholls St.Slnd2.702.7034.6234.62-0.83-0.83
Texas St.SB1.941.9460.0060.000.390.39
UTSACUSA1.911.9140.0040.00-0.38-0.38
Oklahoma St.B121.881.8860.0060.000.380.38
Texas A&MSEC1.821.8250.0050.000.000.00
Cal PolyBW1.811.8128.5728.57-0.78-0.78
Saint Mary'sWCC1.791.7987.1087.101.321.32
RiceCUSA0.300.3064.5264.520.090.09
Texas TechB120.260.2656.2556.250.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.220.2261.2961.290.050.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.210.2122.5822.58-0.12-0.12
TulsaAmer0.210.2146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.210.2173.5373.530.100.10
MemphisAmer0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
TulaneAmer0.190.1919.3519.35-0.12-0.12
San FranciscoWCC0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
UMKCWAC0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.180.1842.8642.86-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.160.1683.3383.330.100.10
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.1568.9768.970.060.06
KentuckySEC0.150.1585.2985.290.110.11
Southern MissCUSA0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
UABCUSA0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
PortlandWCC0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
NorthwesternB100.130.1367.6567.650.050.05
TexasB120.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.1267.8667.860.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1210.3410.34-0.10-0.10
SeattleWAC0.120.1237.0437.04-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1174.1974.190.060.06
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
USCP120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.090.0914.2914.29-0.07-0.07
UC DavisBW0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
UtahP120.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.090.0912.9012.90-0.07-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
BaylorB120.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
TroySB0.090.0958.8258.820.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
West VirginiaB120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.080.0896.9796.970.080.08
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
New HampshireAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
SMUAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
DePaulBE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.05-0.05
IowaB100.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0610.0010.00-0.05-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
LSUSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
SamfordSC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01