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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Texas A&M Corpus Chris

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:84.0
Current RPI:84
Expected SOS:253
Current SOS:253
Current Record:23-7
Expected Record:23-7
Current Conf Record:16-4
Expected Conf Record:16-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-0
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:54
Expected OOC SOS:183



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-784.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas A&M Corpus Chris.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-19Texas A&M (18.0)SECA95-70L0%0.0
11-21Texas (27.0)B12A67-56L0%0.0
11-26Furman (167.0)SCN69-73W100%0.0
11-27Elon (160.0)CAAA81-85W100%0.0
12-2Austin Peay (184.0)OVCH61-48W100%0.0
12-5Texas St. (238.0)SBH47-39W100%0.0
12-12UTSA (347.0)CUSAA79-85W100%0.0
12-15Wisconsin (43.0)B10A64-49L0%0.0
12-20Cal Poly (236.0)BWH80-74W100%0.0
12-28Austin Peay (184.0)OVCA70-74W100%0.0
1-5Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndH94-82W100%0.0
1-9McNeese St. (341.0)SlndA68-77W100%0.0
1-11Lamar (337.0)SlndA82-91W100%0.0
1-16Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndH76-71W100%0.0
1-19Northwestern St. (344.0)SlndA79-89W100%0.0
1-23New Orleans (343.0)SlndH97-76W100%0.0
1-26Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndH73-63W100%0.0
1-30Stephen F. Austin (61.0)SlndH61-66L0%0.0
2-2Incarnate Word (163.0)SlndA70-65L0%0.0
2-6Sam Houston St. (178.0)SlndH51-48W100%0.0
2-8Houston Baptist (224.0)SlndH83-76W100%0.0
2-13Stephen F. Austin (61.0)SlndA70-58L0%0.0
2-15New Orleans (343.0)SlndA57-65W100%0.0
2-20Incarnate Word (163.0)SlndH90-69W100%0.0
2-23Abilene Christian (321.0)SlndH65-59W100%0.0
2-27Sam Houston St. (178.0)SlndA70-75W100%0.0
3-3Houston Baptist (224.0)SlndA71-81W100%0.0
3-5Abilene Christian (321.0)SlndA69-74W100%0.0
3-11Sam Houston St. (178.0)SlndN79-76W100%0.0
3-12Stephen F. Austin (61.0)SlndN82-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas A&M Corpus Chris's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas A&M Corpus Chris's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas A&M Corpus Chris.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd26.5226.5280.7180.7116.2916.29
Stephen F. AustinSlnd5.855.8580.0080.003.513.51
Sam Houston St.Slnd5.825.8257.6957.690.890.89
Houston BaptistSlnd4.334.3348.1548.15-0.16-0.16
Abilene ChristianSlnd4.154.1536.0036.00-1.16-1.16
Incarnate WordSlnd4.144.1456.5256.520.540.54
New OrleansSlnd4.054.0528.0028.00-1.78-1.78
Austin PeayOVC3.363.3651.6151.610.110.11
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.642.6433.3333.33-0.88-0.88
LamarSlnd2.632.6328.0028.00-1.16-1.16
Nicholls St.Slnd2.622.6226.6726.67-1.22-1.22
Central ArkansasSlnd2.542.5425.9325.93-1.22-1.22
McNeese St.Slnd2.512.5128.0028.00-1.10-1.10
Northwestern St.Slnd2.502.5021.7421.74-1.42-1.42
UTSACUSA1.781.7813.7913.79-1.29-1.29
Cal PolyBW1.771.7729.6329.63-0.72-0.72
Texas A&MSEC1.751.7575.7675.760.900.90
Texas St.SB1.731.7346.4346.43-0.12-0.12
TexasB121.721.7261.2961.290.390.39
ElonCAA1.671.6748.2848.28-0.06-0.06
FurmanSC1.671.6753.3353.330.110.11
WisconsinB101.671.6761.2961.290.380.38
BaylorB120.230.2365.6265.620.070.07
UC RiversideBW0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
OklahomaB120.210.2178.1278.120.120.12
Appalachian St.SB0.200.2029.0329.03-0.08-0.08
TCUB120.200.2036.3636.36-0.05-0.05
RiceCUSA0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.180.1871.8871.880.080.08
Arizona St.P120.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
CaliforniaP120.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
TulaneAmer0.150.1535.2935.29-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
NebraskaB100.140.1447.0647.06-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
MichiganB100.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
IndianaB100.130.1378.1278.120.080.08
IPFWSum0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
SamfordSC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
PurdueB100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
UABCUSA0.120.1280.6580.650.070.07
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.1287.1087.100.090.09
SMUAmer0.110.1183.3383.330.080.08
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
LSUSEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
WoffordSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1011.1111.11-0.08-0.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1064.2964.290.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
MassachusettsA100.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0922.2222.22-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0822.5822.58-0.05-0.05
FIUCUSA0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
SyracuseACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Kansas St.B120.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
UCLAP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0612.9012.90-0.05-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0639.3939.39-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
RutgersB100.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
DelawareCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0329.1729.17-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01