live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Texas A&M Corpus Chris

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:163.3
Current RPI:155
Expected SOS:302
Current SOS:324
Current Record:3-1
Expected Record:16-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-4
Current OOC Record:3-1
Expected OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC RPI:152
Expected OOC SOS:254



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-466.80.13%
21-574.00.60%
20-687.62.38%
19-7104.26.19%
18-8121.112.07%
17-9139.718.93%
16-10160.419.63%
15-11181.917.52%
14-12204.711.80%
13-13226.56.33%
12-14247.93.06%
11-15268.11.06%
10-16283.40.22%
9-17301.40.05%
7-19323.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas A&M Corpus Chris.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16UT Rio Grande Valley (318.0)WACA72-94W100%0.0
11-21Texas St. (265.1)SBA69-73W100%0.0
11-29UT Rio Grande Valley (318.0)WACH84-68W100%0.0
12-3Cal Poly (257.2)BWA82-70L0%0.0
12-5Texas A&M (42.8)SECA0-06%-18.2
12-18UTSA (307.7)CUSAH0-081%10.5
12-20Saint Mary's (15.8)WCCA0-04%-20.6
12-22Oklahoma St. (58.4)B12A0-07%-17.3
12-31New Orleans (251.5)SlndA0-060%3.2
1-2Nicholls St. (253.7)SlndA0-068%5.7
1-7Northwestern St. (259.9)SlndH0-078%9.4
1-11Stephen F. Austin (172.7)SlndA0-040%-3.0
1-14Central Arkansas (268.7)SlndH0-081%10.5
1-19Stephen F. Austin (172.7)SlndH0-061%3.3
1-21Sam Houston St. (166.4)SlndA0-043%-2.1
1-25Lamar (300.5)SlndA0-069%5.9
1-28Abilene Christian (190.8)SlndH0-067%5.2
2-1Houston Baptist (219.0)SlndH0-074%7.8
2-8Southeastern Louisiana (232.7)SlndH0-074%7.7
2-11McNeese St. (326.5)SlndA0-081%10.6
2-15Incarnate Word (222.9)SlndA0-053%0.8
2-18Lamar (300.5)SlndH0-084%12.1
2-22Abilene Christian (190.8)SlndA0-046%-1.1
2-25McNeese St. (326.5)SlndH0-092%16.9
3-1Houston Baptist (219.0)SlndA0-055%1.5
3-4Incarnate Word (222.9)SlndH0-072%7.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas A&M Corpus Chris's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas A&M Corpus Chris's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas A&M Corpus Chris.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd29.7126.4585.0066.2120.808.58
LamarSlnd0.004.8050.0042.980.00-0.67
Incarnate WordSlnd0.004.7325.0043.93-0.00-0.58
McNeese St.Slnd1.044.730.0017.96-1.04-3.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.004.720.0039.87-0.00-0.96
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.004.6525.0055.84-0.000.54
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.004.6540.0055.50-0.000.51
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC25.003.9528.5722.87-10.71-2.14
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.003.0050.0058.080.000.49
New OrleansSlnd0.002.9140.0042.02-0.00-0.46
Northwestern St.Slnd0.002.9020.0042.76-0.00-0.42
Central ArkansasSlnd0.002.8912.5030.76-0.00-1.11
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.002.8542.8650.98-0.000.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.002.8442.8637.55-0.00-0.71
Texas St.SB12.502.1060.0044.992.50-0.21
UTSACUSA1.932.0625.0029.91-0.97-0.83
Oklahoma St.B120.001.9971.4353.000.000.12
Texas A&MSEC0.001.9666.6765.240.000.60
Cal PolyBW12.501.9633.3339.34-4.17-0.42
Saint Mary'sWCC0.001.92100.0089.100.001.50
RiceCUSA0.000.3075.0071.470.000.13
Texas TechB120.000.2987.5062.040.000.07
MemphisAmer1.390.2275.0055.500.690.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.2271.4363.930.000.06
San FranciscoWCC0.000.2185.7153.560.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.2185.7166.190.000.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.2066.6757.300.000.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1816.6729.81-0.00-0.07
TulsaAmer0.000.1850.0038.050.00-0.04
OklahomaB120.000.1871.4348.350.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.1812.5023.93-0.00-0.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1775.0070.180.000.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1714.2931.28-0.00-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1742.8658.58-0.000.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1520.0037.65-0.00-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.1562.5058.450.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1433.3346.38-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.1450.0059.920.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.1487.5082.800.000.09
TexasB120.000.1457.1438.680.00-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1466.6740.030.00-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.1420.0035.47-0.00-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1442.8660.54-0.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.1420.0022.75-0.00-0.07
SeattleWAC0.000.1416.6739.49-0.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.1462.5052.330.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.1350.0054.070.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.1175.0066.170.000.04
Oregon St.P120.000.1025.0022.93-0.00-0.06
HawaiiBW1.040.1050.0050.450.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.1057.1442.530.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.1033.3330.44-0.00-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.1037.5031.23-0.00-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.000.1050.0054.070.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1062.5067.390.000.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1028.5742.90-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.040.1016.6730.34-0.69-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.890.1042.8633.23-0.13-0.03
BaylorB120.000.10100.0076.590.000.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.390.1042.8638.63-0.20-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1050.0071.020.000.04
Little RockSB0.000.1066.6761.330.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.1085.7183.660.000.06
IndianaB100.000.0887.5074.490.000.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0871.4355.820.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0820.0021.80-0.00-0.04
MarquetteBE0.000.0875.0066.410.000.03
New HampshireAE0.000.0857.1458.840.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.080.0022.01-0.00-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0857.1450.420.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0862.5043.800.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0757.1471.520.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0775.0051.040.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0775.0075.340.000.04
SMUAmer0.000.0766.6766.860.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.0766.6735.430.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0712.5029.15-0.00-0.03
LibertyBSth0.000.0733.3348.07-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0775.0048.030.00-0.00
USCP120.000.07100.0076.680.000.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.0740.0058.82-0.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0716.6729.80-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0725.0038.83-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC1.390.0725.0031.41-0.69-0.03
HoustonAmer0.000.0785.7178.280.000.04
IowaB101.390.0737.5037.74-0.35-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.070.0038.27-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0712.5034.79-0.00-0.02
Portland St.BSky1.390.0740.0043.41-0.28-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0771.4357.970.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC1.390.0714.2926.74-0.99-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC1.390.0775.0054.670.690.01
TroySB0.000.0742.8636.19-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0750.0045.970.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.070.0032.52-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.070.0033.85-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0728.5733.77-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0785.7162.220.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.890.0742.8645.44-0.13-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0762.5066.900.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0714.2936.02-0.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.07100.0091.920.000.06
PacificWCC0.000.0742.8646.14-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0733.3332.35-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0725.0020.78-0.00-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0737.5035.09-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.890.0762.5040.460.22-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0775.0066.370.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.070.0027.12-0.00-0.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.070.000.02
KansasB120.000.0687.5075.860.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0687.5059.310.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.170.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.06100.0061.680.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0650.0046.240.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0442.8650.06-0.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0442.8628.98-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0414.2932.19-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0457.1429.790.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0487.5065.250.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0457.1436.010.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0450.0052.760.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0483.3371.480.000.02
SamfordSC0.000.0462.5056.520.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0457.1449.130.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0425.0027.53-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0485.7176.240.000.02
ElonCAA0.890.0371.4359.470.380.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.60-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0060.620.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.890.0342.8645.56-0.13-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.27-0.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.040.0350.0041.990.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.370.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0371.4351.460.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0371.4360.540.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0371.4373.490.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.58-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0314.2943.58-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.47-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0387.5076.230.000.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0377.7871.970.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0371.4368.050.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0350.0041.490.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0366.6758.060.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0337.5047.91-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.790.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0314.2931.35-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0375.0068.370.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.69-0.00-0.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.450.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0342.8639.20-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3339.61-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0342.8645.01-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.240.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0355.5647.890.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1452.030.000.00
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.330.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0048.500.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0387.5081.960.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0078.850.000.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3339.94-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0340.0041.12-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0086.690.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.990.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0375.0086.710.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.09-0.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.440.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0371.4373.040.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.460.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.58-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.03-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.040.000.02