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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Texas A&M Corpus Chris

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:209.0
Current RPI:209
Expected SOS:314
Current SOS:314
Current Record:17-13
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:14-6
Expected Conf Record:14-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-7
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:329
Expected OOC SOS:345



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-13209.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas A&M Corpus Chris.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Georgetown (25.0)BEA78-62L0%0.0
11-23Saint Louis (272.0)A10A56-62W100%0.0
11-25Bradley (288.0)MVCA52-38L0%0.0
11-28Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACH75-66W100%0.0
11-29Radford (154.0)BSthH46-57L0%0.0
12-6Denver (232.0)SumH48-64L0%0.0
12-15UTSA (237.0)CUSAH60-73L0%0.0
12-17Denver (232.0)SumA83-73L0%0.0
12-20Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWA68-75W100%0.0
12-22Cal St. Fullerton (314.0)BWA82-77L0%0.0
1-6Central Arkansas (349.0)SlndA70-77W100%0.0
1-10McNeese St. (279.0)SlndH71-61W100%0.0
1-12Lamar (230.0)SlndH64-66L0%0.0
1-17Nicholls St. (321.0)SlndA66-69W100%0.0
1-20Northwestern St. (161.0)SlndH88-76W100%0.0
1-24New Orleans (326.0)SlndA67-71W100%0.0
1-26Southeastern Louisiana (329.0)SlndA61-70W100%0.0
1-31Stephen F. Austin (33.0)SlndA61-51L0%0.0
2-3Incarnate Word (160.0)SlndH71-70W100%0.0
2-7Sam Houston St. (82.0)SlndA67-59L0%0.0
2-9Houston Baptist (285.0)SlndA77-66L0%0.0
2-14Stephen F. Austin (33.0)SlndH71-63W100%0.0
2-16New Orleans (326.0)SlndH55-53W100%0.0
2-21Incarnate Word (160.0)SlndA74-68L0%0.0
2-24Abilene Christian (324.0)SlndA44-67W100%0.0
2-28Sam Houston St. (82.0)SlndH61-59W100%0.0
3-5Houston Baptist (285.0)SlndH85-72W100%0.0
3-7Abilene Christian (324.0)SlndH58-27W100%0.0
3-12New Orleans (326.0)SlndN61-58W100%0.0
3-13Sam Houston St. (82.0)SlndN70-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas A&M Corpus Chris's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas A&M Corpus Chris's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas A&M Corpus Chris.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd26.5726.5758.7058.704.624.62
Sam Houston St.Slnd5.835.8373.0873.082.692.69
New OrleansSlnd5.765.7634.7834.78-1.75-1.75
Stephen F. AustinSlnd4.334.3389.2989.293.403.40
Houston BaptistSlnd4.184.1831.8231.82-1.52-1.52
Abilene ChristianSlnd4.184.1826.9226.92-1.93-1.93
Incarnate WordSlnd4.134.1359.0959.090.750.75
DenverSum3.433.4335.7135.71-0.98-0.98
Nicholls St.Slnd2.632.6328.0028.00-1.16-1.16
LamarSlnd2.622.6240.0040.00-0.52-0.52
Northwestern St.Slnd2.612.6157.6957.690.400.40
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.572.5726.6726.67-1.20-1.20
Central ArkansasSlnd2.562.567.147.14-2.19-2.19
McNeese St.Slnd2.562.5642.3142.31-0.39-0.39
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.781.7823.3323.33-0.95-0.95
Cal St. FullertonBW1.721.7221.4321.43-0.98-0.98
GeorgetownBE1.701.7066.6766.670.570.57
BradleyMVC1.691.6922.5822.58-0.93-0.93
RadfordBSth1.691.6960.7160.710.360.36
Saint LouisA101.691.6933.3333.33-0.56-0.56
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.671.6719.3519.35-1.02-1.02
UTSACUSA1.671.6740.7440.74-0.31-0.31
UC RiversideBW0.240.2441.3841.38-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.240.2454.5554.550.020.02
South DakotaSum0.220.2248.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.210.2164.5264.520.060.06
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.200.2025.0025.00-0.10-0.10
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.190.1943.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.190.1990.9190.910.150.15
IndianaB100.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.180.1834.3834.38-0.05-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.170.1770.0070.000.070.07
RiceCUSA0.160.1634.4834.48-0.05-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
HoustonAmer0.160.1640.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
DuquesneA100.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.140.1479.3179.310.080.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1423.0823.08-0.07-0.07
UC IrvineBW0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
XavierBE0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
TulsaAmer0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
Texas St.SB0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
WinthropBSth0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
IPFWSum0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
CreightonBE0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
NebraskaB100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
BaylorB120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0959.2659.260.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
UNLVMWC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
WoffordSC0.090.0981.2581.250.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
ButlerBE0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0862.9662.960.020.02
DrakeMVC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
Iowa St.B120.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
OklahomaB120.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0671.4371.430.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
RichmondA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
BryantNEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0681.2581.250.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
StanfordP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.030.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00