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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.

St. Mary's

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:28.0
Current RPI:28
Expected SOS:103
Current SOS:103
Current Record:25-5
Expected Record:25-5
Current Conf Record:16-2
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:51
Expected OOC SOS:115


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-528.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Mary's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Northern Iowa (73.0)MVCH57-41W100%0.0
11-23Denver (94.0)SBA70-58L0%0.0
11-28Weber St. (70.0)BSkyH87-70W100%0.0
12-3Cal Poly (219.0)BWA54-59W100%0.0
12-13Jackson St. (322.0)SWACH77-53W100%0.0
12-15North Carolina A&T (289.0)MEACH84-45W100%0.0
12-17Bethune Cookman (239.0)MEACH77-52W100%0.0
12-19Kennesaw St. (331.0)ASunH74-51W100%0.0
12-20Eastern Washington (209.0)BSkyH77-61W100%0.0
12-22Baylor (8.0)B12N72-59L0%0.0
12-23Missouri St. (123.0)MVCN61-77W100%0.0
12-29Brigham Young (46.0)WCCH98-82W100%0.0
12-31Pepperdine (271.0)WCCA45-74W100%0.0
1-5San Diego (192.0)WCCA72-78W100%0.0
1-9San Francisco (136.0)WCCH87-72W100%0.0
1-12Gonzaga (25.0)WCCH83-62W100%0.0
1-14Portland (238.0)WCCH69-61W100%0.0
1-19Pepperdine (271.0)WCCH61-47W100%0.0
1-21Santa Clara (303.0)WCCA77-93W100%0.0
1-26Loyola Marymount (118.0)WCCA64-71W100%0.0
1-28Brigham Young (46.0)WCCA66-80W100%0.0
2-2San Diego (192.0)WCCH84-73W100%0.0
2-9Gonzaga (25.0)WCCA73-59L0%0.0
2-11Santa Clara (303.0)WCCH82-67W100%0.0
2-15Loyola Marymount (118.0)WCCH60-75L0%0.0
2-18Murray St. (22.0)OVCA65-51L0%0.0
2-23Portland (238.0)WCCA43-70W100%0.0
2-25San Francisco (136.0)WCCA60-67W100%0.0
3-3San Francisco (136.0)WCCN83-78W100%0.0
3-5Gonzaga (25.0)WCCN78-74W100%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Mary's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Mary's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Mary's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. Mary'sWCC26.5026.5084.3384.3318.1918.19
San FranciscoWCC5.995.9964.2964.291.711.71
GonzagaWCC5.935.9385.7185.714.244.24
Brigham YoungWCC4.434.4379.3179.312.602.60
PortlandWCC4.374.3721.4321.43-2.50-2.50
San DiegoWCC4.344.3440.7440.74-0.80-0.80
Loyola MarymountWCC4.314.3159.2659.260.800.80
PepperdineWCC4.284.2834.6234.62-1.32-1.32
Santa ClaraWCC4.284.2823.0823.08-2.30-2.30
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.811.8144.8344.83-0.19-0.19
Weber St.BSky1.781.7881.4881.481.121.12
BaylorB121.771.7778.1278.121.001.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.751.7550.0050.000.000.00
Missouri St.MVC1.751.7550.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC1.751.7596.3096.301.621.62
Northern IowaMVC1.721.7260.0060.000.340.34
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.721.7232.1432.14-0.61-0.61
Kennesaw St.ASun1.691.696.906.90-1.46-1.46
Jackson St.SWAC1.691.6920.6920.69-0.99-0.99
Cal PolyBW1.671.6753.3353.330.110.11
DenverSB1.671.6770.0070.000.670.67
Northern ArizonaBSky0.370.3711.1111.11-0.29-0.29
MontanaBSky0.370.3779.3179.310.210.21
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.310.3164.2964.290.090.09
Washington St.P120.280.2846.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.260.2627.5927.59-0.12-0.12
San Jose St.WAC0.220.2226.6726.67-0.10-0.10
Morgan St.MEAC0.220.2231.0331.03-0.08-0.08
HawaiiWAC0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.200.2030.7730.77-0.08-0.08
PacificBW0.190.1932.1432.14-0.07-0.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.190.1910.3410.34-0.15-0.15
Montana St.BSky0.170.1737.0437.04-0.05-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.170.1719.2319.23-0.11-0.11
Portland St.BSky0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.170.1748.1548.15-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.170.1734.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Seattleind0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
UCLAP120.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.140.1430.7730.77-0.05-0.05
UtahP120.140.1416.6716.67-0.09-0.09
North TexasSB0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
OhioMAC0.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
CreightonMVC0.140.1484.8584.850.090.09
NevadaWAC0.140.1480.0080.000.080.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Longwoodind0.130.1322.2222.22-0.07-0.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
St. LouisA100.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
South AlabamaSB0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1139.3939.39-0.02-0.02
Utah St.WAC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Houston BaptistGWC0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
OklahomaB120.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
DrakeMVC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.110.1183.8783.870.070.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1120.0020.00-0.06-0.06
MissouriB120.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.096.906.90-0.08-0.08
New MexicoMWC0.090.0981.2581.250.050.05
LipscombASun0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Middle TennesseeSB0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Western KentuckySB0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0877.4277.420.050.05
StanfordP120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
OregonP120.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
UC DavisBW0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
WisconsinB100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ButlerHorz0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Holy CrossPat0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
IllinoisB100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Notre DameBE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0839.3939.39-0.02-0.02
XavierA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Iowa St.B120.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Kansas St.B120.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Arizona St.P120.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0637.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
VillanovaBE0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
MemphisCUSA0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
MaineAE0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
IowaB100.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0619.2319.23-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BelmontASun0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.CAA0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
GramblingSWAC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.060.0694.1294.120.050.05
MercerASun0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
WashingtonP120.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
TulsaCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Texas A&MB120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Chicago St.GWC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
HoustonCUSA0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NC GreensboroSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CharlotteA100.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
South DakotaSum0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.WAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00