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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


Southern Miss

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:336.3
Current RPI:336
Expected SOS:283
Current SOS:301
Current Record:6-19
Expected Record:6-22
Current Conf Record:5-10
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-10
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:349
Expected OOC SOS:326



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-20322.01.78%
7-21331.127.97%
6-22338.770.25%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Miss.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15LSU (183.5)SECA78-61L0%0.0
11-21Alabama A&M (350.7)SWACH63-55W100%0.0
11-30South Alabama (217.8)SBH55-78L0%0.0
12-4Jackson St. (314.5)SWACA75-64L0%0.0
12-6Florida St. (14.0)ACCA98-49L0%0.0
12-10Tulane (289.2)AmerH64-71L0%0.0
12-19Mississippi St. (143.0)SECN44-86L0%0.0
12-22San Diego St. (97.5)MWCN51-66L0%0.0
12-23Stephen F. Austin (198.3)SlndN64-67L0%0.0
12-25Hawaii (287.4)BWA60-46L0%0.0
1-1Louisiana Tech (114.0)CUSAH55-79L0%0.0
1-5UTSA (301.2)CUSAH77-59W100%0.0
1-7UTEP (261.3)CUSAH73-65W100%0.0
1-12Old Dominion (131.9)CUSAA54-50L0%0.0
1-14Charlotte (235.4)CUSAA82-66L0%0.0
1-19North Texas (327.6)CUSAH75-65W100%0.0
1-21Rice (168.2)CUSAH58-61L0%0.0
1-26Middle Tennessee (35.5)CUSAA72-56L0%0.0
1-28UAB (182.6)CUSAA87-43L0%0.0
2-2Marshall (124.6)CUSAH91-76W100%0.0
2-4Western Kentucky (218.0)CUSAH47-64L0%0.0
2-9UTSA (301.2)CUSAA57-51L0%0.0
2-11UTEP (261.3)CUSAA80-50L0%0.0
2-16FIU (336.8)CUSAH69-66W100%0.0
2-18Florida Atlantic (278.5)CUSAH82-94L0%0.0
2-23Rice (168.2)CUSAA0-05%-18.0
2-25North Texas (327.6)CUSAA0-024%-7.5
3-4Louisiana Tech (114.0)CUSAA0-02%-22.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Miss's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern Miss's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern Miss.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southern MissCUSA26.1426.1717.1417.50-17.18-17.01
Louisiana TechCUSA2.714.3168.0068.150.981.56
RiceCUSA2.644.2862.5060.970.660.94
UTEPCUSA4.594.2839.1341.02-1.00-0.77
UTSACUSA4.554.2534.7834.93-1.39-1.28
North TexasCUSA2.604.2526.0924.92-1.24-2.13
Old DominionCUSA2.562.5660.0061.590.510.59
FIUCUSA2.642.5616.6718.78-1.76-1.60
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.632.5527.2728.48-1.20-1.10
UABCUSA2.722.5350.0051.610.000.08
CharlotteCUSA2.512.5239.1340.24-0.55-0.49
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.672.4984.6284.921.851.74
MarshallCUSA2.632.4956.0056.600.320.33
Western KentuckyCUSA2.592.4646.1545.85-0.20-0.20
Mississippi St.SEC2.121.9150.0048.990.00-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC2.081.884.175.55-1.91-1.67
Jackson St.SWAC2.081.8834.7840.25-0.63-0.37
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.081.8850.0051.920.000.07
LSUSEC2.081.8830.7729.45-0.80-0.77
South AlabamaSB2.081.8541.6740.73-0.35-0.34
HawaiiBW2.041.8245.8345.51-0.17-0.16
Florida St.ACC2.001.7977.7875.421.110.91
San Diego St.MWC2.001.7956.0056.600.240.24
TulaneAmer2.001.7915.3815.66-1.38-1.23
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.280.2848.1548.38-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.240.2530.7734.71-0.09-0.08
Alabama St.SWAC0.240.2528.0028.91-0.10-0.10
Northwestern St.Slnd0.200.2227.2728.66-0.09-0.09
Texas St.SB0.240.2254.1753.210.020.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.200.2259.2662.730.040.06
Texas TechB120.200.2260.7159.310.040.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.200.1922.2224.27-0.11-0.10
Alcorn St.SWAC0.200.1952.1749.960.01-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.160.1937.5040.16-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.240.1848.0047.16-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.150.1870.3770.540.060.07
Georgia St.SB0.230.1860.0059.400.050.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1625.9327.44-0.06-0.07
TroySB0.200.1553.8552.820.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.190.1557.1455.800.030.02
MississippiSEC0.190.1560.7159.870.040.03
MissouriSEC0.190.1525.9325.77-0.09-0.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.1358.3359.220.010.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.130.1331.8233.09-0.05-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.170.1360.8762.050.040.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1373.0873.880.060.06
Cal PolyBW0.160.1325.0027.75-0.08-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1314.2918.10-0.09-0.08
UC IrvineBW0.160.1351.8554.430.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.1376.0076.570.040.07
TulsaAmer0.120.1246.1547.81-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.120.1225.0026.38-0.06-0.06
Oregon St.P120.160.1214.2913.58-0.11-0.09
Fresno St.MWC0.160.1257.6957.750.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1230.7733.71-0.05-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.120.1257.1456.440.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.160.1283.3384.080.110.08
Utah ValleyWAC0.160.1234.7836.63-0.05-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.150.1275.0071.920.080.05
MemphisAmer0.120.1266.6763.170.040.03
UNLVMWC0.150.1235.7134.80-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.150.1282.1480.600.100.07
PittsburghACC0.110.1253.5750.750.010.00
AlabamaSEC0.150.1261.5459.750.030.02
AuburnSEC0.150.1260.7159.670.030.02
New OrleansSlnd0.080.1059.0960.070.010.02
Ohio St.B100.120.0953.5752.340.010.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0942.8645.36-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.120.0950.0052.050.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.080.0940.7440.12-0.01-0.02
KentuckySEC0.120.0982.1481.760.080.06
South FloridaAmer0.120.0926.9225.66-0.05-0.05
CaliforniaP120.080.0966.6766.210.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.120.0957.6955.370.020.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0956.0055.900.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.120.0942.3143.63-0.02-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.120.0946.4343.89-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.0975.0077.120.060.05
Miami FLACC0.080.0970.3767.240.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.110.0982.1480.660.070.06
CincinnatiAmer0.110.0988.8987.450.090.07
HoustonAmer0.110.0970.3769.130.050.03
TennesseeSEC0.070.0951.8552.250.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.110.0951.8551.660.000.00
ToledoMAC0.110.0948.1549.49-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0953.5751.920.010.00
VCUA100.110.0982.1479.370.070.05
TempleAmer0.070.0948.2850.61-0.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.040.0727.5928.17-0.02-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0614.8115.43-0.06-0.04
UtahP120.080.0660.0060.170.020.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0620.0021.74-0.05-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.040.0650.0049.820.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0643.4843.27-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.040.0628.5729.06-0.02-0.03
HartfordAE0.040.0630.0029.22-0.02-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0640.7442.89-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0631.0331.60-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.040.0642.8642.33-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.040.0656.0055.930.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.080.0626.0928.38-0.04-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0612.5014.87-0.06-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0622.7323.17-0.04-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0625.0027.77-0.04-0.03
ElonCAA0.080.0655.5656.900.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0634.7833.41-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0622.2222.75-0.04-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.040.0634.6233.56-0.01-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0669.2368.600.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0665.3864.150.010.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0644.4443.17-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0650.0049.370.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.040.0644.0043.41-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.040.0646.1546.03-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.040.0644.0042.70-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0651.8551.810.000.00
NevadaMWC0.080.0678.5778.260.040.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0623.0823.14-0.04-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0650.0046.860.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.080.0629.6328.76-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0637.0436.81-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.080.0642.3143.98-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0632.1431.91-0.03-0.02
Arizona St.P120.080.0646.4344.09-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.080.0664.0064.920.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.080.0646.1546.49-0.01-0.00
North FloridaASun0.080.0630.7732.11-0.03-0.02
SamfordSC0.080.0655.5656.300.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0653.8554.930.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0644.0046.00-0.01-0.00
SMUAmer0.070.0685.7185.540.050.04
St. John'sBE0.080.0642.8642.05-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.070.0664.2963.820.020.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0680.0079.920.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0629.6331.16-0.03-0.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0651.8551.210.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0655.5652.750.010.00
LouisvilleACC0.070.0678.5778.520.040.03
OhioMAC0.080.0668.0068.550.030.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0688.8989.350.060.05
ClemsonACC0.040.0651.8553.680.000.00
DetroitHorz0.070.0622.2222.38-0.04-0.03
DukeACC0.040.0678.5776.170.020.03
Notre DameACC0.070.0675.0074.370.040.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0336.3636.47-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.040.0342.8642.57-0.01-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.040.0316.0016.19-0.03-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.040.0359.2659.740.010.01
BaylorB120.040.0381.4878.550.030.02
DavidsonA100.040.0353.8552.600.000.00
DrakeMVC0.040.0322.2223.45-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.040.0335.7134.58-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0382.1481.630.030.02
MarylandB100.040.0377.7876.990.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.040.0372.7374.040.020.02
Seton HallBE0.040.0362.9661.760.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.040.0350.0049.750.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.040.0333.3334.84-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0340.7440.19-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.040.0346.1547.50-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.040.0357.1456.680.010.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0346.1546.96-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.040.03100.0099.810.040.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0365.3865.420.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0357.1457.070.010.00
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0351.7250.330.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0348.0047.41-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.040.0364.2964.460.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0333.3334.37-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.040.0353.8553.510.000.00
AkronMAC0.040.0377.7876.390.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0365.3866.650.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0371.4372.700.020.01
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0350.0049.270.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.040.0326.0925.97-0.02-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.040.0377.7877.990.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0342.8643.65-0.01-0.00
FurmanSC0.040.0364.2964.510.010.01
HowardMEAC0.040.0319.2321.44-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.040.0389.2987.840.030.02
LehighPat0.040.0359.2660.160.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0346.1546.92-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.040.0333.3333.59-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.040.0366.6766.780.010.01
RichmondA100.040.0359.2659.930.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0357.6956.380.010.00
TexasB120.040.0335.7134.84-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.040.0364.2961.960.010.01
UMKCWAC0.040.0348.0046.99-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.040.0381.4881.510.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.040.0386.2186.330.030.02
William & MaryCAA0.040.0352.0053.050.000.00
WoffordSC0.040.0344.4443.90-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0330.7730.10-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.040.0332.1430.40-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0329.1729.85-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.040.0355.5655.020.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0335.7135.66-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.040.0362.0762.320.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0351.8551.270.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0333.3332.68-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0375.0073.470.020.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.030.003.38-0.04-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0351.7249.530.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.040.0358.6257.910.010.00
VirginiaACC0.040.0366.6767.600.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.040.0370.3769.250.010.01
WashingtonP120.040.0333.3332.52-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.040.0376.0077.350.020.02