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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Southern Miss

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:223.2
Current RPI:195
Expected SOS:159
Current SOS:149
Current Record:7-10
Expected Record:10-17
Current Conf Record:4-4
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:223
Expected OOC SOS:182



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1086.00.01%
16-11116.50.02%
15-12133.00.25%
14-13154.81.55%
13-14174.65.26%
12-15194.813.89%
11-16213.124.68%
10-17230.427.12%
9-18247.818.71%
8-19265.47.41%
7-20283.41.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Miss.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Michigan (37.6)B10A61-47L0%0.0
11-24South Dakota (99.3)SumN84-71L0%0.0
11-25Youngstown St. (314.7)HorzN71-64W100%0.0
11-26Northern Colorado (145.4)BSkyN77-63L0%0.0
11-29South Alabama (235.0)SBA69-58L0%0.0
12-10Troy (207.3)SBH89-71W100%0.0
12-13Alabama A&M (348.6)SWACA54-69W100%0.0
12-21Florida St. (39.9)ACCA98-45L0%0.0
12-23Mississippi St. (110.7)SECN64-70L0%0.0
12-28Marshall (101.3)CUSAA85-66L0%0.0
12-30Western Kentucky (45.3)CUSAA82-66L0%0.0
1-4UTEP (283.4)CUSAH85-75W100%0.0
1-6UTSA (248.7)CUSAH93-83W100%0.0
1-11UAB (126.6)CUSAA86-75L0%0.0
1-13Middle Tennessee (32.7)CUSAA69-49L0%0.0
1-18Rice (321.9)CUSAH86-75W100%0.0
1-20North Texas (217.4)CUSAH85-78W100%0.0
1-27Louisiana Tech (159.7)CUSAA0-018%-10.0
2-1FIU (287.9)CUSAA0-043%-2.1
2-3Florida Atlantic (239.8)CUSAA0-043%-2.1
2-8Old Dominion (73.6)CUSAH0-021%-9.1
2-10Charlotte (301.7)CUSAH0-069%5.5
2-15Middle Tennessee (32.7)CUSAH0-017%-10.7
2-17UAB (126.6)CUSAH0-024%-7.8
2-22UTSA (248.7)CUSAA0-032%-5.3
2-24UTEP (283.4)CUSAA0-036%-4.1
3-3Louisiana Tech (159.7)CUSAH0-037%-3.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Miss's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern Miss's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern Miss.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southern MissCUSA26.3726.1942.8638.89-3.77-5.82
Louisiana TechCUSA0.654.4852.6354.040.030.36
UABCUSA3.344.4758.8262.370.591.11
UTEPCUSA3.194.4135.2934.25-0.94-1.39
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.184.4170.5973.461.312.07
UTSACUSA3.194.4143.7540.07-0.40-0.88
North TexasCUSA3.192.6347.0648.32-0.19-0.09
RiceCUSA3.192.6311.7618.31-2.44-1.67
MarshallCUSA3.182.6266.6762.391.060.65
Western KentuckyCUSA3.182.6266.6769.811.061.04
FIUCUSA0.412.5935.2934.73-0.12-0.79
Old DominionCUSA0.322.5678.9576.670.181.37
CharlotteCUSA0.322.5623.5325.44-0.17-1.26
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.332.5637.5036.92-0.08-0.67
TroySB3.101.9837.5044.34-0.78-0.22
South AlabamaSB3.031.9547.0643.94-0.18-0.24
Alabama A&MSWAC3.091.9511.1117.31-2.41-1.27
Youngstown St.Horz3.111.9222.2224.35-1.73-0.98
Northern ColoradoBSky3.101.9256.2555.550.390.21
South DakotaSum3.111.9272.2271.311.380.82
MichiganB103.021.8875.0069.731.510.74
Florida St.ACC2.941.8572.2268.591.310.69
Mississippi St.SEC2.941.8570.5957.501.210.28
Coastal CarolinaSB0.250.2027.7838.14-0.11-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.2057.8966.260.030.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1983.3381.370.000.12
Georgia St.SB0.330.1966.6765.520.110.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.240.1644.4450.31-0.030.00
James MadisonCAA0.090.1625.0028.24-0.04-0.07
Texas St.SB0.340.1657.8950.210.050.00
Appalachian St.SB0.160.1633.3337.23-0.05-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.080.1661.1151.910.020.01
AuburnSEC0.250.1689.4777.000.190.09
MississippiSEC0.250.1652.6345.860.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.160.1668.4258.980.060.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.160.1516.6724.26-0.11-0.08
Fort WayneSum0.080.1352.6351.690.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.170.1366.6765.370.060.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1326.6729.040.00-0.05
Montana St.BSky0.090.1350.0047.660.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.240.1366.6759.820.080.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.330.1360.0062.030.070.03
ChattanoogaSC0.160.1322.2228.59-0.09-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.160.1383.3384.240.110.09
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.160.1380.0078.850.100.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.240.1336.8444.11-0.06-0.01
IowaB100.150.1347.6244.02-0.01-0.02
Miami FLACC0.160.1377.7870.480.090.05
VanderbiltSEC0.160.1336.8435.57-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.1238.8943.43-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.120.0010.67-0.16-0.10
DenverSum0.160.1033.3336.48-0.05-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.160.1038.8946.05-0.04-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.1035.0026.120.00-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1027.7831.110.00-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.170.1029.4134.76-0.07-0.03
Texas TechB120.160.1078.9571.810.090.04
Idaho St.BSky0.160.1043.7540.93-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.170.1077.7867.910.090.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.160.1042.1146.00-0.03-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.1045.0047.07-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.080.1022.2225.25-0.05-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.160.1045.0048.56-0.02-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.160.1037.5045.24-0.04-0.01
MinnesotaB100.080.1063.6457.630.020.01
North FloridaASun0.150.0931.5835.15-0.06-0.03
BelmontOVC0.160.0971.4374.660.070.05
DetroitHorz0.150.0921.0525.97-0.09-0.05
Green BayHorz0.160.0925.0027.94-0.08-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.150.0933.3333.77-0.05-0.03
RichmondA100.080.0931.5834.36-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.070.0963.1657.630.020.01
Wright St.Horz0.150.0968.4269.250.060.04
Austin PeayOVC0.240.0944.4446.00-0.03-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.240.0931.5832.72-0.09-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.160.0944.4446.02-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.0930.0036.50-0.07-0.03
PurdueB100.150.0990.4888.370.120.07
OhioMAC0.230.0947.0648.41-0.01-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.080.0927.7840.97-0.03-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0725.0028.01-0.04-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0730.0032.52-0.03-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0772.2272.980.000.03
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0742.8635.24-0.01-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0711.1115.29-0.06-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0750.0052.460.000.00
BradleyMVC0.090.0765.0057.880.030.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.075.8819.35-0.08-0.04
IdahoBSky0.090.0764.7166.850.030.02
MontanaBSky0.090.0770.5973.150.040.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.077.6923.28-0.07-0.04
TulsaAmer0.090.0755.0053.320.010.00
UC DavisBW0.170.0758.8262.440.030.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0766.6766.020.030.02
Weber St.BSky0.090.0756.2557.400.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0758.8249.760.01-0.00
DukeACC0.150.0789.4785.210.120.05
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0770.0068.300.030.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0763.1665.970.000.02
UCLAP120.150.0765.0062.050.040.02
StetsonASun0.080.0633.3336.93-0.03-0.02
UNLVMWC0.170.0673.6865.260.080.02
ArkansasSEC0.170.0668.4264.200.060.02
KentuckySEC0.090.0673.6867.970.040.02
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0668.4254.090.030.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0642.1140.460.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.080.0678.9576.990.050.03
BuffaloMAC0.080.0672.2274.930.040.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0620.0023.34-0.05-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0652.6347.520.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0645.0041.300.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0610.5327.29-0.06-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.067.6920.09-0.07-0.04
IUPUIHorz0.080.0627.7829.83-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.080.0650.0054.890.000.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0665.0058.540.020.01
Murray St.OVC0.080.0670.5975.950.030.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0666.6773.210.000.03
OaklandHorz0.080.0661.9065.160.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0652.9460.220.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0642.1143.510.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0635.2940.48-0.02-0.01
USCP120.080.0671.4368.280.040.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.160.0645.0045.03-0.02-0.01
Washington St.P120.080.0647.3741.44-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0652.6343.110.00-0.01
IndianaB100.150.0657.8950.710.020.00
TulaneAmer0.160.0663.1657.890.040.01
DePaulBE0.150.0642.1134.31-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.160.0668.4254.070.060.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0665.0054.670.020.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0684.2173.240.000.03
DaytonA100.080.0647.3750.94-0.000.00
FloridaSEC0.160.0673.6871.560.080.03
IllinoisB100.150.0647.3744.27-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.080.0678.9569.790.040.02
LSUSEC0.070.0661.1153.170.020.00
MarylandB100.070.0670.0065.250.030.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6763.200.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.150.0680.0075.060.090.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0655.0050.330.000.00
Ohio St.B100.070.0680.9576.520.040.03
RutgersB100.150.0655.0046.690.01-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.160.0626.3231.50-0.08-0.02
VCUA100.070.0660.0059.700.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.080.0664.7159.990.020.01
WisconsinB100.080.0650.0046.300.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0612.5025.45-0.06-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0621.0539.480.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0621.0544.260.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.080.0355.0048.980.01-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0341.1839.160.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0311.7612.81-0.06-0.03
TCUB120.080.0373.6865.600.040.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0321.0524.75-0.04-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6765.640.000.01
ColoradoP120.090.0360.0053.720.020.00
DavidsonA100.000.0358.8261.450.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.030.009.09-0.09-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0342.1132.470.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0377.7879.150.050.02
ElonCAA0.000.0352.6351.080.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0045.930.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.090.0368.7563.990.030.01
High PointBSth0.000.0343.7549.230.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.090.0310.5318.34-0.07-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.0358.8263.210.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0327.7827.100.00-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0316.6724.450.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0337.5033.780.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.090.0361.1156.830.020.00
ButlerBE0.080.0366.6763.070.030.01
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0361.9063.140.020.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0329.4133.93-0.03-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0344.4444.92-0.01-0.00
La SalleA100.080.0340.0042.69-0.02-0.00
MaineAE0.080.0310.5314.83-0.06-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0328.5731.26-0.04-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.037.1414.82-0.07-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0357.1460.410.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0342.1146.09-0.01-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.080.0363.1657.540.020.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0336.8432.76-0.02-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.080.0345.0045.49-0.01-0.00
AkronMAC0.080.0347.0644.91-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0362.5058.690.020.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0325.0031.45-0.04-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0389.4785.550.060.02
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0345.0041.33-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0338.8944.080.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0310.0019.63-0.07-0.02
FordhamA100.080.0331.5829.06-0.03-0.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0345.0043.48-0.01-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6755.940.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0370.0068.220.030.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0316.6724.91-0.05-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.080.0322.2228.66-0.04-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0315.7920.910.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0385.0083.200.050.02
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0323.5328.69-0.04-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0350.0051.380.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0318.7536.820.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0343.7554.11-0.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0365.0056.340.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0363.1661.020.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0361.9055.760.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0340.0030.870.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.080.0370.0070.570.030.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0368.4261.230.030.01
TempleAmer0.000.0352.6351.740.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0372.2268.930.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0368.4263.960.000.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0318.7518.36-0.05-0.02
ToledoMAC0.080.0366.6767.700.030.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0317.6523.86-0.05-0.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0394.7490.310.070.02
VirginiaACC0.000.0394.7486.140.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0368.4257.740.030.00
XavierBE0.080.0385.7180.080.060.02
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0357.1453.050.010.00
SamfordSC0.080.0327.7832.66-0.03-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0338.8935.37-0.02-0.01