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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Southern Miss

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:331.0
Current RPI:331
Expected SOS:279
Current SOS:279
Current Record:7-22
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-11
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:349
Expected OOC SOS:329



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-22331.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Miss.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15LSU (193.0)SECA78-61L0%0.0
11-21Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACH63-55W100%0.0
11-30South Alabama (231.0)SBH55-78L0%0.0
12-4Jackson St. (323.0)SWACA75-64L0%0.0
12-6Florida St. (14.0)ACCA98-49L0%0.0
12-10Tulane (296.0)AmerH64-71L0%0.0
12-19Mississippi St. (150.0)SECN44-86L0%0.0
12-22San Diego St. (98.0)MWCN51-66L0%0.0
12-23Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndN64-67L0%0.0
12-25Hawaii (300.0)BWA60-46L0%0.0
1-1Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAH55-79L0%0.0
1-5UTSA (264.0)CUSAH77-59W100%0.0
1-7UTEP (222.0)CUSAH73-65W100%0.0
1-12Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAA54-50L0%0.0
1-14Charlotte (240.0)CUSAA82-66L0%0.0
1-19North Texas (339.0)CUSAH75-65W100%0.0
1-21Rice (167.0)CUSAH58-61L0%0.0
1-26Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAA72-56L0%0.0
1-28UAB (201.0)CUSAA87-43L0%0.0
2-2Marshall (112.0)CUSAH91-76W100%0.0
2-4Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAH47-64L0%0.0
2-9UTSA (264.0)CUSAA57-51L0%0.0
2-11UTEP (222.0)CUSAA80-50L0%0.0
2-16FIU (338.0)CUSAH69-66W100%0.0
2-18Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAH82-94L0%0.0
2-23Rice (167.0)CUSAA72-71L0%0.0
2-25North Texas (339.0)CUSAA53-76W100%0.0
3-4Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAA93-65L0%0.0
3-8Rice (167.0)CUSAN86-75L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Miss's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern Miss's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern Miss.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southern MissCUSA26.2126.2120.3320.33-15.56-15.56
RiceCUSA5.885.8860.7160.711.261.26
Louisiana TechCUSA4.244.2465.5265.521.311.31
UTEPCUSA4.244.2444.8344.83-0.44-0.44
UTSACUSA4.154.1537.9337.93-1.00-1.00
North TexasCUSA4.124.1223.0823.08-2.22-2.22
MarshallCUSA2.542.5457.5857.580.390.39
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.542.5487.5087.501.901.90
UABCUSA2.522.5248.3948.39-0.08-0.08
Old DominionCUSA2.512.5160.0060.000.500.50
CharlotteCUSA2.482.4839.2939.29-0.53-0.53
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.482.4825.9325.93-1.19-1.19
FIUCUSA2.452.4517.8617.86-1.58-1.58
Western KentuckyCUSA2.422.4245.1645.16-0.23-0.23
Mississippi St.SEC1.861.8648.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.831.8350.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC1.831.8330.0030.00-0.73-0.73
Alabama A&MSWAC1.811.817.147.14-1.55-1.55
Jackson St.SWAC1.811.8139.2939.29-0.39-0.39
South AlabamaSB1.781.7837.9337.93-0.43-0.43
HawaiiBW1.751.7542.8642.86-0.25-0.25
Florida St.ACC1.721.7275.0075.000.860.86
San Diego St.MWC1.721.7254.8454.840.170.17
TulaneAmer1.721.7216.6716.67-1.15-1.15
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.260.2646.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.230.2335.4835.48-0.07-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.230.2367.6567.650.080.08
Texas TechB120.230.2356.2556.250.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.230.2323.3323.33-0.12-0.12
Northwestern St.Slnd0.230.2336.0036.00-0.06-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.200.2058.0658.060.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.180.1820.0020.00-0.11-0.11
Delaware St.MEAC0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Alcorn St.SWAC0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.140.1460.7160.710.030.03
TroySB0.140.1458.8258.820.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.140.1432.0032.00-0.05-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.140.1428.1228.12-0.06-0.06
TulsaAmer0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
MissouriSEC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
MississippiSEC0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
UNLVMWC0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
PittsburghACC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1221.8821.88-0.07-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1276.6776.670.060.06
Cal PolyBW0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
MemphisAmer0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Oregon St.P120.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
AuburnSEC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
HoustonAmer0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
CaliforniaP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
TempleAmer0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Notre DameACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
ToledoMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0619.2319.23-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0637.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
St. John'sBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00