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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


South Alabama

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:154.0
Current RPI:154
Expected SOS:189
Current SOS:189
Current Record:16-12
Expected Record:16-12
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC RPI:282
Expected OOC SOS:252



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-12154.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Alabama.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Florida St. (85.0)ACCA71-76W100%0.0
11-19Tennessee St. (105.0)OVCN68-57L0%0.0
11-20Monmouth (282.0)NECN71-73L0%0.0
11-21Georgia St. (209.0)CAAA75-73L0%0.0
11-29Florida Atlantic (218.0)SBA66-77W100%0.0
12-1Florida International (111.0)SBA68-79W100%0.0
12-4New Mexico St. (55.0)WACH52-58L0%0.0
12-8UAB (144.0)CUSAA92-78L0%0.0
12-16Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)SlndH74-69W100%0.0
12-22Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)SBH77-62W100%0.0
12-29Arkansas St. (163.0)SBH54-63L0%0.0
1-3Louisiana Monroe (305.0)SBA72-77W100%0.0
1-5Middle Tennessee (28.0)SBH56-60L0%0.0
1-10Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)SBA89-91W100%0.0
1-12North Texas (247.0)SBA66-56L0%0.0
1-17Louisiana Monroe (305.0)SBH71-56W100%0.0
1-24Western Kentucky (150.0)SBH65-57W100%0.0
1-27Florida International (111.0)SBH60-58W100%0.0
1-31Arkansas St. (163.0)SBA74-62L0%0.0
2-2Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)SBA66-70W100%0.0
2-7Troy (279.0)SBH65-62W100%0.0
2-9Florida Atlantic (218.0)SBH72-71W100%0.0
2-14Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)SBH88-64W100%0.0
2-21Middle Tennessee (28.0)SBA85-50L0%0.0
2-23North Texas (247.0)SBH69-57W100%0.0
2-28Western Kentucky (150.0)SBA79-73L0%0.0
3-2Troy (279.0)SBA49-53W100%0.0
3-9Western Kentucky (150.0)SBN59-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Alabama's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Alabama's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Alabama.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South AlabamaSB26.4826.4858.4658.464.484.48
Western KentuckySB6.586.5854.8454.840.640.64
Florida InternationalSB4.854.8560.0060.000.970.97
TroySB4.844.8438.7138.71-1.09-1.09
Middle TennesseeSB4.834.8383.8783.873.273.27
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.804.8040.0040.00-0.96-0.96
Arkansas St.SB4.784.7857.1457.140.680.68
Louisiana MonroeSB4.774.7716.0016.00-3.24-3.24
Arkansas Little RockSB4.714.7155.1755.170.490.49
Florida AtlanticSB4.714.7144.8344.83-0.49-0.49
North TexasSB4.714.7135.7135.71-1.34-1.34
UABCUSA1.961.9645.1645.16-0.19-0.19
Georgia St.CAA1.901.9044.8344.83-0.20-0.20
Tennessee St.OVC1.901.9051.7251.720.070.07
Florida St.ACC1.851.8556.2556.250.230.23
MonmouthNEC1.851.8530.0030.00-0.74-0.74
New Mexico St.WAC1.841.8468.7568.750.690.69
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.791.7918.5218.52-1.12-1.12
Louisiana TechWAC0.320.3280.6580.650.200.20
LamarSlnd0.240.249.689.68-0.19-0.19
Southern MississippiCUSA0.220.2271.8871.880.100.10
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.220.2237.9337.93-0.05-0.05
StetsonASun0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.170.1720.6920.69-0.10-0.10
Murray St.OVC0.170.1765.5265.520.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
HofstraCAA0.150.1519.3519.35-0.09-0.09
DaytonA100.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
BelmontOVC0.140.1480.0080.000.090.09
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
IUPUISum0.140.1413.3313.33-0.10-0.10
LouisvilleBE0.130.1385.2985.290.100.10
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.120.1285.1985.190.080.08
HoustonCUSA0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
VirginiaACC0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
Southern MethodistCUSA0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
MississippiSEC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Central FloridaCUSA0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
Utah ValleyGWC0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CreightonMVC0.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
NortheasternCAA0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Brigham YoungWCC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
DenverWAC0.090.0970.0070.000.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Texas San AntonioWAC0.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Utah St.WAC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
East CarolinaCUSA0.090.0953.8553.850.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
ClemsonACC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
IdahoWAC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Texas St.WAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Virginia CommonwealthA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0630.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0670.3770.370.030.03
Oral RobertsSlnd0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
LehighPat0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCAA0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. LouisA100.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0637.0437.04-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiBE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
ElonSC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Long IslandNEC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
WagnerNEC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
MinnesotaB100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
NavyPat0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0642.3142.31-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
Michigan St.B100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
OaklandSum0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Notre DameBE0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
SyracuseBE0.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
RutgersBE0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas ChristianB120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CharlotteA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01