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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


South Alabama

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:231.0
Current RPI:231
Expected SOS:184
Current SOS:184
Current Record:12-18
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-5
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:270
Expected OOC SOS:310



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-18231.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Alabama.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UNLV (242.0)MWCA68-76W100%0.0
11-18FIU (338.0)CUSAH69-64W100%0.0
11-19Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzH84-75W100%0.0
11-20Jacksonville (291.0)ASunH71-58W100%0.0
11-26Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCA72-62L0%0.0
11-30Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAA55-78W100%0.0
12-3Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAH55-67L0%0.0
12-10Stetson (328.0)ASunA87-78L0%0.0
12-13Denver (207.0)SumH51-64L0%0.0
12-16Samford (170.0)SCH79-82L0%0.0
12-22Mississippi (77.0)SECA92-58L0%0.0
1-2Troy (147.0)SBH76-75W100%0.0
1-7Georgia St. (104.0)SBA78-77L0%0.0
1-9Georgia Southern (121.0)SBA84-79L0%0.0
1-14Texas St. (179.0)SBH72-67W100%0.0
1-16UT Arlington (45.0)SBH83-89L0%0.0
1-21Little Rock (243.0)SBA73-56L0%0.0
1-23Arkansas St. (119.0)SBA74-62L0%0.0
1-28Georgia Southern (121.0)SBH78-66W100%0.0
1-30Georgia St. (104.0)SBH80-83L0%0.0
2-4Troy (147.0)SBA71-76W100%0.0
2-11Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBA63-66W100%0.0
2-13Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBA87-61L0%0.0
2-18Appalachian St. (301.0)SBH87-74W100%0.0
2-20Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBH77-81L0%0.0
2-25UT Arlington (45.0)SBA86-75L0%0.0
2-27Texas St. (179.0)SBA90-64L0%0.0
3-2Little Rock (243.0)SBH57-62L0%0.0
3-4Arkansas St. (119.0)SBH73-70W100%0.0
3-8Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBN80-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Alabama's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Alabama's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Alabama.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South AlabamaSB26.2526.2538.2438.24-6.18-6.18
TroySB4.384.3862.5062.501.101.10
Coastal CarolinaSB4.214.2141.3841.38-0.73-0.73
Texas St.SB4.164.1658.6258.620.720.72
UT ArlingtonSB4.144.1472.4172.411.861.86
Georgia St.SB4.144.1457.1457.140.590.59
Georgia SouthernSB4.114.1153.5753.570.290.29
Arkansas St.SB4.064.0662.0762.070.980.98
Little RockSB4.064.0639.2939.29-0.87-0.87
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.622.6260.0060.000.520.52
Louisiana MonroeSB2.622.6223.3323.33-1.40-1.40
Appalachian St.SB2.582.5825.9325.93-1.24-1.24
FIUCUSA1.891.8917.8617.86-1.21-1.21
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.831.8387.5087.501.381.38
JacksonvilleASun1.811.8148.1548.15-0.07-0.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.761.7642.3142.31-0.27-0.27
StetsonASun1.751.7525.0025.00-0.88-0.88
Youngstown St.Horz1.731.7335.4835.48-0.50-0.50
Southern MissCUSA1.721.7225.0025.00-0.86-0.86
DenverSum1.701.7051.7251.720.060.06
MississippiSEC1.691.6959.3859.380.320.32
SamfordSC1.671.6751.6151.610.050.05
UNLVMWC1.671.6735.4835.48-0.48-0.48
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.340.3476.6776.670.180.18
UTSACUSA0.220.2238.7138.71-0.05-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.200.2017.8617.86-0.13-0.13
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.190.1928.5728.57-0.08-0.08
MinnesotaB100.190.1972.7372.730.090.09
ChattanoogaSC0.190.1958.6258.620.030.03
UABCUSA0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
North FloridaASun0.180.1836.6736.67-0.05-0.05
NJITASun0.170.1731.0331.03-0.07-0.07
UTEPCUSA0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.170.1721.4321.43-0.09-0.09
Central ArkansasSlnd0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
AlabamaSEC0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
AuburnSEC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
RiceCUSA0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.1417.8617.86-0.09-0.09
Air ForceMWC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
Old DominionCUSA0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.140.1421.4321.43-0.08-0.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.136.906.90-0.11-0.11
MarshallCUSA0.130.1355.8855.880.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
HawaiiBW0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1223.0823.08-0.06-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
TulsaAmer0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
MercerSC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
MissouriSEC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
WoffordSC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Fort WayneSum0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0829.4129.41-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
The CitadelSC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
MassachusettsA100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0819.2319.23-0.05-0.05
TexasB120.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
TCUB120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
FurmanSC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
OaklandHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
VMISC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
ToledoMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.060.0628.1228.12-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
DukeACC0.060.0677.1477.140.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
IUPUISum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
PurdueB100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01