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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


South Alabama

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:280.0
Current RPI:280
Expected SOS:167
Current SOS:167
Current Record:8-20
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:5-13
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-5
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:218
Expected OOC SOS:60



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-20280.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Alabama.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Detroit (230.0)HorzH74-58W100%0.0
11-12Texas (36.0)B12A84-77L0%0.0
11-22Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAH59-66L0%0.0
11-23Wright St. (173.0)HorzH74-70W100%0.0
11-24Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndH79-59W100%0.0
11-30Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAA65-55L0%0.0
12-7Rice (299.0)CUSAA96-93L0%0.0
12-14Gonzaga (20.0)WCCN68-59L0%0.0
12-21Arkansas (77.0)SECA72-60L0%0.0
12-28New Mexico St. (72.0)WACA82-64L0%0.0
1-2Western Kentucky (125.0)SBH56-58L0%0.0
1-4Georgia St. (76.0)SBH63-73L0%0.0
1-9Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBA65-60L0%0.0
1-11Arkansas St. (180.0)SBA72-60L0%0.0
1-16Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBH81-73W100%0.0
1-18Louisiana Monroe (244.0)SBH58-64L0%0.0
1-25UT Arlington (199.0)SBA73-65L0%0.0
2-1Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBH58-62L0%0.0
2-3Georgia St. (76.0)SBA85-65L0%0.0
2-6Troy (285.0)SBA79-74L0%0.0
2-13Arkansas St. (180.0)SBH61-85L0%0.0
2-15Western Kentucky (125.0)SBA62-69W100%0.0
2-20Texas St. (307.0)SBA67-66L0%0.0
2-22Troy (285.0)SBH86-78W100%0.0
2-27Louisiana Monroe (244.0)SBA71-54L0%0.0
3-2Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBA102-76L0%0.0
3-6Texas St. (307.0)SBH63-53W100%0.0
3-8UT Arlington (199.0)SBH78-73W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Alabama's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Alabama's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Alabama.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South AlabamaSB26.3726.3724.5624.56-13.42-13.42
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.754.7565.5265.521.471.47
UT ArlingtonSB4.734.7342.8642.86-0.68-0.68
Arkansas Little RockSB4.724.7239.2939.29-1.01-1.01
Georgia St.SB4.694.6972.4172.412.102.10
Arkansas St.SB4.664.6653.5753.570.330.33
Western KentuckySB4.634.6362.0762.071.121.12
TroySB4.594.5929.6329.63-1.87-1.87
Louisiana MonroeSB4.584.5829.1729.17-1.91-1.91
Texas St.SB4.564.5618.5218.52-2.87-2.87
Southern MissCUSA2.052.0580.0080.001.231.23
TexasB121.971.9768.7568.750.740.74
Houston BaptistSlnd1.961.9615.3815.38-1.36-1.36
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.911.9170.0070.000.760.76
RiceCUSA1.901.9014.8114.81-1.34-1.34
Wright St.Horz1.881.8858.0658.060.300.30
ArkansasSEC1.871.8764.5264.520.540.54
DetroitHorz1.841.8437.9337.93-0.44-0.44
GonzagaWCC1.841.8481.2581.251.151.15
New Mexico St.WAC1.811.8172.7372.730.820.82
Louisiana TechCUSA0.280.2878.7978.790.160.16
MississippiSEC0.240.2457.5857.580.040.04
OaklandHorz0.230.2335.4835.48-0.07-0.07
MarshallCUSA0.210.2129.0329.03-0.09-0.09
Cleveland St.Horz0.200.2063.3363.330.050.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.190.1924.0024.00-0.10-0.10
SamfordSC0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.180.1825.9325.93-0.09-0.09
TulaneCUSA0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.180.1855.1755.170.020.02
TulsaCUSA0.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
Old DominionCUSA0.180.1848.4848.48-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.170.1722.2222.22-0.10-0.10
OklahomaB120.170.1771.8871.880.080.08
MilwaukeeHorz0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.160.1648.1548.15-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.150.1546.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleAmer0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
Kansas St.B120.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
BaylorB120.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.130.1346.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
KansasB120.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.120.1293.1093.100.100.10
North TexasCUSA0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
ToledoMAC0.120.1281.2581.250.070.07
DePaulBE0.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.120.1294.1294.120.100.10
Green BayHorz0.120.1277.7877.780.060.06
UICHorz0.120.1213.7913.79-0.08-0.08
KentuckySEC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
West VirginiaB120.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0930.7730.77-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
North FloridaASun0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Murray St.OVC0.090.0959.2659.260.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0846.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
UMKCWAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
IdahoWAC0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
ColoradoP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0621.2121.21-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
AkronMAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
ElonSC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0641.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01