South Alabama

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	196.0
Current RPI:	168
Expected SOS:	231
Current SOS:	183
Current Record:	11-10
Expected Record:	14-12
Current Conf Record:	4-7
Expected Conf Record:	7-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	1.13%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-4
Current OOC Record:	7-3
Expected OOC Record:	7-3
Expected OOC RPI:	100
Expected OOC SOS:	219

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-10	155.9	3.96%
15-11	173.8	20.51%
14-12	192.1	36.30%
13-13	209.9	28.43%
12-14	227.3	9.57%
11-15	245.7	1.22%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Alabama.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-12	Mississippi St. (41.7)	SEC	A	80-65	L	0%	0.0
11-20	Florida St. (21.9)	ACC	A	80-39	L	0%	0.0
11-23	Louisiana St. (85.2)	SEC	A	75-79	W	100%	0.0
11-30	UAB (140.0)	CUSA	H	55-47	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Alabama A&M (332.6)	SWAC	H	67-44	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Southern Mississippi (15.8)	CUSA	H	54-67	L	0%	0.0
12-11	Alcorn St. (333.4)	SWAC	H	102-62	W	100%	0.0
12-15	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (314.7)	Slnd	A	64-66	W	100%	0.0
12-19	Georgia Southern (228.1)	SC	H	70-57	W	100%	0.0
12-22	San Diego (210.6)	WCC	N	62-68	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Middle Tennessee (49.6)	SB	A	68-52	L	0%	0.0
1-5	North Texas (203.3)	SB	H	73-78	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Denver (91.3)	SB	H	50-67	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Louisiana Lafayette (159.3)	SB	A	65-70	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Troy (274.9)	SB	A	60-75	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Florida International (212.8)	SB	H	62-65	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Middle Tennessee (49.6)	SB	H	47-68	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Arkansas Little Rock (187.7)	SB	A	75-50	L	0%	0.0
1-29	Troy (274.9)	SB	H	68-66	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Florida Atlantic (179.8)	SB	H	65-56	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Western Kentucky (240.2)	SB	A	75-66	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Arkansas St. (228.9)	SB	H	0-0		68%	5.0
2-11	Louisiana Monroe (323.3)	SB	A	0-0		71%	6.1
2-18	Western Kentucky (240.2)	SB	H	0-0		69%	5.4
2-23	Florida Atlantic (179.8)	SB	A	0-0		30%	-5.7
2-25	Florida International (212.8)	SB	A	0-0		37%	-3.7

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Alabama's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

South Alabama's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against South Alabama.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
South Alabama	SB	26.38	26.24	50.50	52.20	0.26	1.16
Troy	SB	5.39	4.66	31.58	32.69	-1.98	-1.61
Middle Tennessee	SB	5.37	4.64	81.82	83.64	3.42	3.12
Western Kentucky	SB	2.93	4.64	31.82	32.18	-1.06	-1.65
Florida Atlantic	SB	2.91	4.64	38.10	40.09	-0.69	-0.92
Florida International	SB	2.95	4.60	30.00	33.60	-1.18	-1.51
Denver	SB	2.97	2.67	69.57	71.24	1.16	1.14
North Texas	SB	2.90	2.66	47.37	48.01	-0.15	-0.11
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.59	2.64	8.70	8.26	-0.49	-2.20
Arkansas St.	SB	0.47	2.61	37.50	38.53	-0.12	-0.60
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	2.70	2.61	40.91	42.26	-0.49	-0.40
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	2.92	2.61	56.52	56.71	0.38	0.35
Mississippi St.	SEC	2.66	2.20	77.27	71.41	1.45	0.94
UAB	CUSA	2.72	2.17	42.86	41.24	-0.39	-0.38
Louisiana St.	SEC	2.54	2.09	61.90	59.25	0.61	0.39
Alcorn St.	SWAC	2.56	2.07	17.65	23.95	-1.66	-1.08
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	2.55	2.06	85.00	81.55	1.79	1.30
Alabama A&M	SWAC	2.50	2.03	18.75	28.23	-1.56	-0.88
San Diego	WCC	2.45	1.96	35.00	35.12	-0.73	-0.58
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	2.43	1.96	19.05	21.86	-1.50	-1.10
Florida St.	ACC	2.38	1.92	71.43	70.73	1.02	0.80
Georgia Southern	SC	2.38	1.92	42.11	42.95	-0.38	-0.27
Mississippi	SEC	0.31	0.29	63.64	56.71	0.08	0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.19	0.22	30.00	37.30	-0.08	-0.06
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.26	0.22	17.39	24.41	-0.17	-0.11
Grambling	SWAC	0.25	0.22	15.00	15.73	-0.17	-0.15
Belmont	ASun	0.31	0.21	69.57	73.28	0.12	0.10
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.27	0.21	59.09	57.76	0.05	0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.21	0.20	71.43	66.60	0.09	0.07
Auburn	SEC	0.22	0.20	56.52	48.81	0.03	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.26	0.19	19.05	25.52	-0.16	-0.09
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.19	0.18	31.82	42.13	-0.07	-0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.25	0.18	61.90	58.59	0.06	0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.17	0.18	66.67	69.69	0.06	0.07
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.22	0.17	56.52	53.10	0.03	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.17	0.17	47.06	50.75	-0.01	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.16	0.17	25.00	23.75	-0.08	-0.09
Tulsa	CUSA	0.10	0.17	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.16	0.17	80.00	78.06	0.09	0.09
Austin Peay	OVC	0.20	0.16	33.33	35.97	-0.07	-0.05
Murray St.	OVC	0.16	0.16	100.00	94.55	0.16	0.15
Alabama	SEC	0.18	0.16	68.18	69.10	0.06	0.06
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.21	0.16	55.00	54.48	0.02	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.21	0.16	4.35	9.66	-0.19	-0.13
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.14	0.15	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.14	0.15	35.00	40.78	-0.04	-0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.14	0.15	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.23	0.15	52.38	52.86	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.23	0.15	45.45	44.30	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.23	0.14	31.82	25.98	-0.08	-0.07
Furman	SC	0.11	0.14	47.62	48.83	-0.01	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.11	0.14	76.00	72.50	0.06	0.06
Portland	WCC	0.11	0.14	21.74	21.70	-0.06	-0.08
South Florida	BE	0.17	0.14	54.55	48.60	0.02	-0.00
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.17	0.14	57.14	60.75	0.02	0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.11	0.14	47.62	48.82	-0.01	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.11	0.14	38.10	37.86	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.17	0.14	71.43	69.05	0.07	0.05
NC Greensboro	SC	0.15	0.14	34.78	33.46	-0.05	-0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.14	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.17	0.13	52.38	46.15	0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.13	65.00	60.02	0.02	0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.11	0.13	27.78	29.58	-0.05	-0.05
East Carolina	CUSA	0.17	0.13	44.44	41.71	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.16	0.13	59.09	59.72	0.03	0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.17	0.13	69.57	71.51	0.07	0.06
Houston	CUSA	0.16	0.13	47.62	44.63	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.15	0.13	69.57	65.87	0.06	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.21	0.13	82.61	77.63	0.14	0.07
Arkansas	SEC	0.16	0.13	69.57	65.15	0.06	0.04
The Citadel	SC	0.11	0.11	9.52	11.44	-0.09	-0.08
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.11	0.10	80.77	80.75	0.07	0.06
San Francisco	WCC	0.11	0.10	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.16	0.10	90.91	87.74	0.13	0.08
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.11	0.10	72.22	71.97	0.05	0.05
Maryland	ACC	0.11	0.10	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.18	0.10	39.13	42.12	-0.04	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.10	26.32	29.79	-0.05	-0.04
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.11	0.10	76.19	75.94	0.06	0.05
UC Irvine	BW	0.17	0.10	35.00	35.26	-0.05	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.11	0.10	90.48	87.91	0.09	0.08
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.11	0.10	42.86	43.45	-0.02	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.17	0.10	65.22	65.17	0.05	0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.10	0.10	34.78	35.50	-0.03	-0.03
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.10	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.16	0.10	41.18	42.61	-0.03	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.11	0.10	47.62	46.46	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.10	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.15	0.10	68.18	67.91	0.05	0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.10	0.10	61.90	67.23	0.02	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.11	0.10	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.10	95.83	92.57	0.10	0.08
Utah St.	WAC	0.16	0.10	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.10	81.82	76.80	0.07	0.05
Chattanooga	SC	0.12	0.07	27.27	35.02	-0.05	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.07	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.07	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.11	0.07	30.00	34.15	-0.05	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.12	0.07	33.33	35.26	-0.04	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.07	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.11	0.07	75.00	76.00	0.06	0.04
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.07	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.07	81.82	81.49	0.04	0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.07	31.82	33.83	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.11	0.07	28.57	26.30	-0.05	-0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.11	0.07	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.07	65.22	63.79	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.07	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.00	0.07	56.52	54.22	0.00	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.07	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.04
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.07	45.45	45.55	-0.00	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.07	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.11	0.07	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.07	66.67	60.80	0.04	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.07	69.57	68.90	0.04	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.07	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.07	34.78	32.06	-0.02	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.07	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.10	0.07	54.55	56.79	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.10	0.07	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.11	0.07	17.39	22.00	-0.07	-0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.11	0.07	76.19	72.91	0.06	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.00	0.06	27.78	29.87	-0.00	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.06	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.04
Seattle	ind	0.00	0.06	23.53	33.28	-0.00	-0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.00	0.06	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.00	0.06	40.91	39.56	-0.00	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.07	0.04	72.73	66.81	0.03	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.04	35.00	39.29	-0.02	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.04	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.00
Elon	SC	0.06	0.04	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.07	0.04	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.06	0.04	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.06	0.04	65.22	63.61	0.02	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.04	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.00	0.04	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
Maine	AE	0.06	0.04	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Montana	BSky	0.06	0.04	70.00	73.28	0.02	0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.04	85.71	78.05	0.04	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.06	0.04	69.57	68.29	0.02	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.04	55.56	58.01	0.01	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.00	0.03	82.61	81.44	0.00	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.03	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.03	65.00	66.70	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.03	75.00	74.61	0.02	0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.03	25.00	28.52	-0.02	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.03	13.64	16.14	-0.04	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.03	30.00	31.54	-0.02	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	82.61	80.42	0.04	0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.03	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.00	0.03	30.43	26.44	-0.00	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.00	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.03	55.00	60.33	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	8.70	11.67	-0.04	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.03	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.00	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.00	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.03	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.00	0.03	81.82	77.20	0.00	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.03	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.00	0.03	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.00	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.00	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.00	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.03	31.82	31.31	-0.02	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.03	90.91	83.85	0.04	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.03	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00