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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


South Alabama

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:275.0
Current RPI:275
Expected SOS:208
Current SOS:208
Current Record:10-21
Expected Record:10-21
Current Conf Record:10-12
Expected Conf Record:10-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-8
Current OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC RPI:347
Expected OOC SOS:239



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-21275.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Alabama.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Southern Miss (283.0)CUSAA68-59L0%0.0
11-22Detroit (205.0)HorzA66-53L0%0.0
11-28Miami FL (65.0)ACCA87-75L0%0.0
12-6Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAH67-68L0%0.0
12-15Pepperdine (134.0)WCCA78-68L0%0.0
12-18Richmond (56.0)A10A65-54L0%0.0
12-20IUPUI (260.0)SumA71-65L0%0.0
12-23Howard (255.0)MEACH60-73L0%0.0
12-30Arkansas St. (277.0)SBH60-63L0%0.0
1-3UT Arlington (184.0)SBA99-87L0%0.0
1-5Arkansas Little Rock (276.0)SBA69-72W100%0.0
1-8Appalachian St. (250.0)SBH104-95W100%0.0
1-10Georgia Southern (113.0)SBH73-81L0%0.0
1-15Texas St. (236.0)SBA82-71L0%0.0
1-17Louisiana Lafayette (142.0)SBA82-89W100%0.0
1-19Arkansas Little Rock (276.0)SBH66-64W100%0.0
1-22Appalachian St. (250.0)SBA64-53L0%0.0
1-25NJIT (159.0)indH55-72L0%0.0
1-29Louisiana Lafayette (142.0)SBH89-85W100%0.0
1-31Louisiana Monroe (132.0)SBA67-61L0%0.0
2-4Texas St. (236.0)SBH43-63L0%0.0
2-7Georgia St. (53.0)SBH54-65L0%0.0
2-12Troy (313.0)SBA67-71W100%0.0
2-14UT Arlington (184.0)SBH97-91W100%0.0
2-19Georgia St. (53.0)SBA79-51L0%0.0
2-21Georgia Southern (113.0)SBA80-74L0%0.0
2-26Louisiana Monroe (132.0)SBH57-75L0%0.0
3-5Arkansas St. (277.0)SBA76-81W100%0.0
3-7Troy (313.0)SBH96-93W100%0.0
3-12Arkansas Little Rock (276.0)SBN57-55W100%0.0
3-13Louisiana Monroe (132.0)SBN77-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Alabama's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Alabama's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Alabama.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South AlabamaSB26.6326.6333.1033.10-9.00-9.00
Louisiana MonroeSB5.955.9553.8553.850.460.46
Arkansas Little RockSB5.905.9044.4444.44-0.66-0.66
Georgia St.SB4.514.5170.0070.001.811.81
Georgia SouthernSB4.464.4665.3865.381.371.37
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.454.4560.7160.710.950.95
Texas St.SB4.444.4434.6234.62-1.37-1.37
UT ArlingtonSB4.404.4050.0050.000.000.00
TroySB4.364.3632.0032.00-1.57-1.57
Appalachian St.SB4.334.3340.7440.74-0.80-0.80
Arkansas St.SB4.334.3334.6234.62-1.33-1.33
Southern MissCUSA1.771.7723.0823.08-0.95-0.95
HowardMEAC1.751.7542.8642.86-0.25-0.25
IUPUISum1.741.7430.0030.00-0.70-0.70
RichmondA101.691.6958.0658.060.270.27
PepperdineWCC1.691.6955.1755.170.180.18
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.671.6751.5251.520.050.05
Miami FLACC1.641.6462.5062.500.410.41
NJITind1.641.6454.1754.170.140.14
DetroitHorz1.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
Green BayHorz0.260.2673.3373.330.120.12
UABCUSA0.210.2154.5554.550.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.200.206.906.90-0.17-0.17
CharlotteCUSA0.180.1843.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
Oral RobertsSum0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.150.1577.4277.420.080.08
HamptonMEAC0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.140.1455.5655.560.020.02
FIUCUSA0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
BYUWCC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
TulsaAmer0.130.1370.9770.970.060.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.120.1242.3142.31-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
TexasB120.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
OaklandHorz0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
UCFAmer0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.080.0893.9493.940.070.07
Kent St.MAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
AlbanyAE0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
MaineAE0.060.0610.0010.00-0.05-0.05
UMass LowellAE0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
MississippiSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0686.6786.670.040.04
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
OhioMAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0394.1294.120.030.03
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0227.2727.27-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.020.0268.5768.570.010.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0290.6290.620.020.02
BelmontOVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
CreightonBE0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02