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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


South Alabama

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:196.0
Current RPI:168
Expected SOS:231
Current SOS:183
Current Record:11-10
Expected Record:14-12
Current Conf Record:4-7
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Probability of Auto Bid:1.13%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:100
Expected OOC SOS:219



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-10155.93.96%
15-11173.820.51%
14-12192.136.30%
13-13209.928.43%
12-14227.39.57%
11-15245.71.22%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Alabama.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Mississippi St. (41.7)SECA80-65L0%0.0
11-20Florida St. (21.9)ACCA80-39L0%0.0
11-23Louisiana St. (85.2)SECA75-79W100%0.0
11-30UAB (140.0)CUSAH55-47W100%0.0
12-3Alabama A&M (332.6)SWACH67-44W100%0.0
12-7Southern Mississippi (15.8)CUSAH54-67L0%0.0
12-11Alcorn St. (333.4)SWACH102-62W100%0.0
12-15Texas A&M Corpus Chris (314.7)SlndA64-66W100%0.0
12-19Georgia Southern (228.1)SCH70-57W100%0.0
12-22San Diego (210.6)WCCN62-68W100%0.0
12-31Middle Tennessee (49.6)SBA68-52L0%0.0
1-5North Texas (203.3)SBH73-78L0%0.0
1-7Denver (91.3)SBH50-67L0%0.0
1-12Louisiana Lafayette (159.3)SBA65-70W100%0.0
1-14Troy (274.9)SBA60-75W100%0.0
1-19Florida International (212.8)SBH62-65L0%0.0
1-21Middle Tennessee (49.6)SBH47-68L0%0.0
1-26Arkansas Little Rock (187.7)SBA75-50L0%0.0
1-29Troy (274.9)SBH68-66W100%0.0
2-2Florida Atlantic (179.8)SBH65-56W100%0.0
2-4Western Kentucky (240.2)SBA75-66L0%0.0
2-9Arkansas St. (228.9)SBH0-068%5.0
2-11Louisiana Monroe (323.3)SBA0-071%6.1
2-18Western Kentucky (240.2)SBH0-069%5.4
2-23Florida Atlantic (179.8)SBA0-030%-5.7
2-25Florida International (212.8)SBA0-037%-3.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Alabama's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Alabama's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Alabama.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South AlabamaSB26.3826.2450.5052.200.261.16
TroySB5.394.6631.5832.69-1.98-1.61
Middle TennesseeSB5.374.6481.8283.643.423.12
Western KentuckySB2.934.6431.8232.18-1.06-1.65
Florida AtlanticSB2.914.6438.1040.09-0.69-0.92
Florida InternationalSB2.954.6030.0033.60-1.18-1.51
DenverSB2.972.6769.5771.241.161.14
North TexasSB2.902.6647.3748.01-0.15-0.11
Louisiana MonroeSB0.592.648.708.26-0.49-2.20
Arkansas St.SB0.472.6137.5038.53-0.12-0.60
Arkansas Little RockSB2.702.6140.9142.26-0.49-0.40
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.922.6156.5256.710.380.35
Mississippi St.SEC2.662.2077.2771.411.450.94
UABCUSA2.722.1742.8641.24-0.39-0.38
Louisiana St.SEC2.542.0961.9059.250.610.39
Alcorn St.SWAC2.562.0717.6523.95-1.66-1.08
Southern MississippiCUSA2.552.0685.0081.551.791.30
Alabama A&MSWAC2.502.0318.7528.23-1.56-0.88
San DiegoWCC2.451.9635.0035.12-0.73-0.58
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.431.9619.0521.86-1.50-1.10
Florida St.ACC2.381.9271.4370.731.020.80
Georgia SouthernSC2.381.9242.1142.95-0.38-0.27
MississippiSEC0.310.2963.6456.710.080.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.190.2230.0037.30-0.08-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.260.2217.3924.41-0.17-0.11
GramblingSWAC0.250.2215.0015.73-0.17-0.15
BelmontASun0.310.2169.5773.280.120.10
Loyola MarymountWCC0.270.2159.0957.760.050.03
Central FloridaCUSA0.210.2071.4366.600.090.07
AuburnSEC0.220.2056.5248.810.03-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.260.1919.0525.52-0.16-0.09
Texas SouthernSWAC0.190.1831.8242.13-0.07-0.03
TulaneCUSA0.250.1861.9058.590.060.03
Georgia St.CAA0.170.1866.6769.690.060.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.220.1756.5253.100.030.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.170.1747.0650.75-0.010.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.160.1725.0023.75-0.08-0.09
TulsaCUSA0.100.1760.8759.050.020.03
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.160.1780.0078.060.090.09
Austin PeayOVC0.200.1633.3335.97-0.07-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.160.16100.0094.550.160.15
AlabamaSEC0.180.1668.1869.100.060.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.210.1655.0054.480.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.210.164.359.66-0.19-0.13
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1550.0058.160.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.1535.0040.78-0.04-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.140.1545.0046.13-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.230.1552.3852.860.010.01
Southern UtahSum0.230.1545.4544.30-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.230.1431.8225.98-0.08-0.07
FurmanSC0.110.1447.6248.83-0.01-0.00
George MasonCAA0.110.1476.0072.500.060.06
PortlandWCC0.110.1421.7421.70-0.06-0.08
South FloridaBE0.170.1454.5548.600.02-0.00
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.170.1457.1460.750.020.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1447.6248.82-0.01-0.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.110.1438.1037.86-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.170.1471.4369.050.070.05
NC GreensboroSC0.150.1434.7833.46-0.05-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.110.1456.5255.200.010.01
Texas A&MB120.170.1352.3846.150.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.1365.0060.020.020.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1327.7829.58-0.05-0.05
East CarolinaCUSA0.170.1344.4441.71-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.160.1359.0959.720.030.03
MemphisCUSA0.170.1369.5771.510.070.06
HoustonCUSA0.160.1347.6244.63-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.150.1369.5765.870.060.04
FloridaSEC0.210.1382.6177.630.140.07
ArkansasSEC0.160.1369.5765.150.060.04
The CitadelSC0.110.119.5211.44-0.09-0.08
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1080.7780.750.070.06
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1056.5253.770.010.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.160.1090.9187.740.130.08
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.1072.2271.970.050.05
MarylandACC0.110.1059.0950.820.020.00
Georgia TechACC0.180.1039.1342.12-0.04-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1026.3229.79-0.05-0.04
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.110.1076.1975.940.060.05
UC IrvineBW0.170.1035.0035.26-0.05-0.03
HarvardIvy0.110.1090.4887.910.090.08
Louisiana TechWAC0.110.1042.8643.45-0.02-0.01
West VirginiaBE0.170.1065.2265.170.050.03
IUPUISum0.100.1034.7835.50-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleBE0.050.1078.2672.660.030.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.160.1041.1842.61-0.03-0.01
RiceCUSA0.110.1047.6246.46-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.1045.4544.66-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.150.1068.1867.910.050.03
LamarSlnd0.100.1061.9067.230.020.03
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1054.1757.200.010.01
KentuckySEC0.110.1095.8392.570.100.08
Utah St.WAC0.160.1050.0052.930.000.01
VirginiaACC0.110.1081.8276.800.070.05
ChattanoogaSC0.120.0727.2735.02-0.05-0.02
College of CharlestonSC0.060.0758.3359.980.010.01
DavidsonSC0.060.0776.1976.760.030.04
Miami OHMAC0.110.0730.0034.15-0.05-0.02
SamfordSC0.120.0733.3335.26-0.04-0.02
WoffordSC0.060.0759.0957.930.010.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.110.0775.0076.000.060.04
DaytonA100.060.0760.8760.960.010.02
GonzagaWCC0.060.0781.8281.490.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.060.0731.8233.83-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.0728.5726.30-0.05-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.110.0747.8343.66-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0765.2263.790.020.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0732.0035.39-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0756.5254.220.000.01
KansasB120.050.0778.2678.390.030.04
SienaMAAC0.050.0745.4545.55-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0769.5766.540.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.0750.0051.730.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.110.0766.6760.800.040.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.0769.5768.900.040.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0762.5062.490.010.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0734.7832.06-0.02-0.02
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0743.4843.31-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.100.0754.5556.790.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.100.0742.8641.13-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.110.0717.3922.00-0.07-0.04
Michigan St.B100.110.0776.1972.910.060.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0627.7829.87-0.00-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0650.0048.360.00-0.00
DukeACC0.050.0686.3683.090.040.04
Seattleind0.000.0623.5333.28-0.00-0.02
Texas St.Slnd0.050.0622.2227.62-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0645.4541.20-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0640.9139.56-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.070.0472.7366.810.030.01
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0435.0039.29-0.02-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0455.0054.800.010.00
ElonSC0.060.0450.0047.590.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.070.0452.3846.680.00-0.00
TexasB120.060.0460.8761.370.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0465.2263.610.020.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0434.7837.24-0.02-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.000.0447.8347.87-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.060.0450.0049.730.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.060.0470.0073.280.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0485.7178.050.040.02
StanfordP120.060.0469.5768.290.020.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0455.5658.010.010.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.000.0382.6181.440.000.02
Arizona St.P120.060.0330.4331.43-0.02-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0365.0066.700.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0375.0074.610.020.02
CreightonMVC0.050.0387.5085.410.040.02
DuquesneA100.050.0359.0956.350.010.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.9138.38-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0334.7832.08-0.02-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0325.0028.52-0.02-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0362.5062.060.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0379.1780.100.030.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0361.9063.520.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0313.6416.14-0.04-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0330.0031.54-0.02-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0342.8645.80-0.01-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0368.0070.030.020.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0382.6180.420.040.02
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0356.5257.720.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0376.1970.730.030.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0338.1042.78-0.01-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0330.4326.44-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0328.5734.20-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0355.0060.330.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.050.0368.1863.990.020.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.038.7011.67-0.04-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0379.1775.980.030.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0373.9168.580.030.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0386.9683.160.040.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0370.8364.420.000.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0361.9055.140.010.00
OhioMAC0.000.0381.8277.200.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.4540.70-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0347.3752.87-0.000.00
RutgersBE0.050.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0352.3857.860.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0347.6247.18-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0360.0059.060.000.01
St. LouisA100.000.0377.2777.670.000.02
StetsonASun0.050.0331.8231.31-0.02-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0366.6768.550.020.01
BaylorB120.050.0390.9183.850.040.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0347.8349.03-0.00-0.00