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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


South Alabama

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:143.9
Current RPI:101
Expected SOS:181
Current SOS:163
Current Record:5-2
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:142
Expected OOC SOS:286



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-437.00.01%
24-543.00.03%
23-651.00.31%
22-763.91.03%
21-877.23.20%
20-990.16.45%
19-10105.810.99%
18-11121.515.80%
17-12138.518.18%
16-13156.916.85%
15-14175.912.70%
14-15194.97.98%
13-16214.64.20%
12-17233.11.62%
11-18252.30.49%
10-19269.20.12%
9-20282.00.02%
8-21278.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Alabama.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UNLV (188.7)MWCA68-76W100%0.0
11-18FIU (262.2)CUSAH69-64W100%0.0
11-19Youngstown St. (237.3)HorzH84-75W100%0.0
11-20Jacksonville (204.9)ASunH71-58W100%0.0
11-26Eastern Illinois (230.7)OVCA72-62L0%0.0
11-30Southern Miss (326.2)CUSAA55-78W100%0.0
12-3Middle Tennessee (51.2)CUSAH55-67L0%0.0
12-10Stetson (319.1)ASunA0-076%8.5
12-13Denver (246.0)SumH0-072%6.9
12-16Samford (166.0)SCH0-063%4.1
12-22Mississippi (120.3)SECA0-028%-7.1
1-2Troy (247.7)SBH0-078%9.3
1-7Georgia St. (105.9)SBA0-030%-6.2
1-9Georgia Southern (189.8)SBA0-047%-0.9
1-14Texas St. (265.1)SBH0-075%8.2
1-16UT Arlington (67.2)SBH0-042%-2.3
1-21Little Rock (151.3)SBA0-037%-4.1
1-23Arkansas St. (76.0)SBA0-029%-6.7
1-28Georgia Southern (189.8)SBH0-067%5.4
1-30Georgia St. (105.9)SBH0-050%0.1
2-4Troy (247.7)SBA0-060%3.0
2-11Louisiana Monroe (264.0)SBA0-064%4.2
2-13Louisiana Lafayette (101.3)SBA0-030%-6.3
2-18Appalachian St. (269.1)SBH0-079%9.6
2-20Coastal Carolina (222.6)SBH0-068%5.7
2-25UT Arlington (67.2)SBA0-024%-8.6
2-27Texas St. (265.1)SBA0-056%1.9
3-2Little Rock (151.3)SBH0-057%2.2
3-4Arkansas St. (76.0)SBH0-049%-0.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Alabama's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Alabama's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Alabama.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South AlabamaSB28.8326.2969.7057.8711.364.14
TroySB1.024.3542.8636.58-0.15-1.17
Georgia SouthernSB0.004.2042.8643.65-0.00-0.53
Georgia St.SB0.004.1950.0060.680.000.90
UT ArlingtonSB0.004.1762.5067.420.001.45
Arkansas St.SB0.004.1775.0066.740.001.40
Little RockSB0.004.1766.6761.940.001.00
Texas St.SB0.004.1750.0044.100.00-0.49
Coastal CarolinaSB0.002.6225.0039.09-0.00-0.57
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.002.6271.4363.710.000.72
Louisiana MonroeSB0.002.6216.6729.57-0.00-1.07
Appalachian St.SB0.002.6216.6730.13-0.00-1.04
FIUCUSA8.161.9716.6737.30-5.44-0.50
Middle TennesseeCUSA7.141.9185.7175.415.100.97
JacksonvilleASun8.161.8766.6761.562.720.43
Eastern IllinoisOVC7.141.8450.0048.160.00-0.07
StetsonASun0.511.8228.5728.40-0.22-0.79
Youngstown St.Horz8.161.7950.0039.540.00-0.37
Southern MissCUSA7.141.7833.3321.61-2.38-1.01
DenverSum0.511.7642.8645.60-0.07-0.15
MississippiSEC0.451.7575.0047.710.22-0.08
SamfordSC0.001.7262.5057.220.000.25
UNLVMWC7.141.7271.4345.263.06-0.16
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.3357.1471.940.000.15
UTSACUSA0.000.2225.0029.54-0.00-0.09
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.2150.0041.990.00-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.2116.6730.34-0.00-0.08
UABCUSA0.000.2150.0059.920.000.04
MinnesotaB100.000.2187.5068.020.000.07
NJITASun0.000.1950.0049.780.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.1833.3330.44-0.00-0.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1812.5030.39-0.00-0.07
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1871.4373.040.000.08
North FloridaASun0.000.1612.5034.79-0.00-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1550.0071.020.000.06
UTEPCUSA0.000.1520.0035.47-0.00-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.890.150.0013.46-0.89-0.11
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1571.4368.050.000.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.150.0022.58-0.00-0.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1575.0048.030.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1575.0054.670.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.450.1537.5035.09-0.11-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.510.1557.1448.500.07-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.1585.7157.450.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.150.0022.31-0.00-0.08
AlabamaSEC0.000.1557.1451.790.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.1466.6754.050.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1350.0050.840.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1325.0030.23-0.00-0.05
LipscombASun0.000.1312.5033.04-0.00-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.1344.4441.30-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.1275.0071.470.000.05
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1271.4351.460.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.510.120.0016.68-0.51-0.08
HawaiiBW0.000.1250.0050.450.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.1250.0038.050.00-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.1262.5051.790.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.450.1250.0061.240.000.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.1271.4354.860.000.01
BradleyMVC0.510.1242.8627.96-0.07-0.05
MercerSC0.000.1242.8647.76-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1228.5731.44-0.00-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1257.1458.940.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0912.5023.93-0.00-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0914.2932.19-0.00-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.510.0942.8645.44-0.07-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0950.0046.410.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.510.0928.5732.62-0.22-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0975.0051.040.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0957.1453.990.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0928.5723.12-0.00-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.090.0017.61-0.00-0.06
Fort WayneSum0.000.0971.4370.210.000.04
RadfordBSth0.000.0928.5734.28-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.0950.0030.350.00-0.04
MassachusettsA100.000.0971.4358.600.000.02
AkronMAC0.510.0971.4368.980.220.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.090.0023.69-0.00-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.000.0942.8633.23-0.00-0.03
TexasB120.000.0957.1438.680.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0950.0066.300.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.090.0034.81-0.00-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0960.0069.120.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0957.1442.530.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0940.0041.12-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0985.7166.190.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0987.5075.240.000.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.450.0912.5023.75-0.33-0.05
ToledoMAC1.400.0937.5047.91-0.35-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0950.0041.490.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.510.09100.0078.850.510.05
TCUB120.450.09100.0061.680.450.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0633.3336.74-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0671.4363.170.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0642.8638.63-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0687.5065.250.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0612.5030.68-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.510.0628.5723.78-0.22-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0614.2931.28-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0675.0075.340.000.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0675.0061.490.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0622.2221.23-0.00-0.04
LSUSEC0.890.0671.4349.170.38-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0064.350.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.450.0685.7170.060.320.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0642.8639.20-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0688.8978.400.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0612.5033.65-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4356.250.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0017.13-0.00-0.04
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5729.95-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0021.22-0.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3379.850.000.04
FordhamA100.000.0650.0041.310.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3356.24-0.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0642.8651.95-0.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0052.760.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0637.5051.64-0.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3346.38-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0611.1148.19-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0642.8655.09-0.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.34-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.150.000.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.330.000.05
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0685.7153.560.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.64-0.00-0.04
South DakotaSum0.000.0650.0046.020.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0625.0039.59-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0657.1433.230.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0671.4370.390.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0671.4356.260.000.01
USCP120.000.06100.0076.680.000.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.990.000.03
VMISC0.000.060.0016.78-0.00-0.04
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0071.070.000.03
VCUA100.000.0675.0073.060.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0657.1452.030.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.450.060.0024.64-0.45-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6766.180.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.450.060.0032.52-0.45-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0642.8650.09-0.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0655.5647.890.00-0.00
LehighPat0.000.0642.8666.67-0.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0650.0046.240.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0671.4360.540.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0677.7871.970.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0662.5058.450.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0642.8650.06-0.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.890.0314.2943.58-0.64-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0314.2942.67-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0322.2226.33-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0342.8650.11-0.000.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0344.4434.65-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.58-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.510.030.0020.75-0.51-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.12-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0325.0027.53-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0377.7849.900.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0337.5037.74-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0385.7176.240.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.0314.2931.35-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.510.0350.0043.560.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.0325.0047.82-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0362.5066.900.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.510.0337.5044.39-0.13-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0387.5082.360.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6761.550.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0062.620.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.99-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0371.4355.160.000.00
ElonCAA0.510.0371.4359.470.220.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0325.0031.41-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0355.5658.610.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.380.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0375.0070.180.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0340.0041.93-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0325.0035.09-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0357.1471.520.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6739.20-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.56-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0320.0041.92-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0387.5068.610.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.510.0322.2241.71-0.28-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0022.01-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0337.5031.23-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0316.6739.49-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.33-0.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0357.1467.260.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0366.6757.300.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0375.0054.490.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0316.6749.65-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.450.0342.8644.71-0.06-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.450.0383.3377.100.300.02
Arizona St.P120.450.0362.5040.460.11-0.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0076.590.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0342.8656.04-0.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.450.0328.5733.77-0.19-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.630.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0366.6740.030.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0043.41-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0387.5075.860.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.800.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0375.0055.500.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0048.10-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.0375.0072.250.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.130.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.990.000.01