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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


South Alabama

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:256.1
Current RPI:237
Expected SOS:198
Current SOS:172
Current Record:7-14
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:4-8
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:229
Expected OOC SOS:219



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15189.90.15%
13-16204.82.08%
12-17221.98.97%
11-18239.020.27%
10-19255.930.61%
9-20271.324.76%
8-21284.811.45%
7-22296.51.70%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Alabama.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15North Carolina St. (116.4)ACCA88-70L0%0.0
11-19LSU (81.9)SECA78-66L0%0.0
11-23Belmont (84.1)OVCN85-98L0%0.0
11-24IUPUI (179.6)SumN68-78W100%0.0
11-28Denver (200.6)SumA69-56L0%0.0
12-5Middle Tennessee (79.1)CUSAA68-55L0%0.0
12-14Southern Miss (297.3)CUSAH54-57L0%0.0
12-18Samford (248.5)SCA70-72W100%0.0
12-22Rice (294.0)CUSAH74-67W100%0.0
12-30Arkansas Little Rock (50.4)SBH60-69L0%0.0
1-2Arkansas St. (240.5)SBH67-89L0%0.0
1-7Georgia Southern (249.8)SBA58-64W100%0.0
1-9Georgia St. (146.2)SBA70-55L0%0.0
1-14Texas St. (278.8)SBH67-78L0%0.0
1-16UT Arlington (102.4)SBH88-85W100%0.0
1-21Louisiana Lafayette (107.6)SBA92-82L0%0.0
1-23Louisiana Monroe (173.3)SBA100-68L0%0.0
1-26Troy (292.2)SBA58-66W100%0.0
1-30Appalachian St. (260.0)SBH73-60W100%0.0
2-4Arkansas St. (240.5)SBA79-73L0%0.0
2-6Arkansas Little Rock (50.4)SBA74-43L0%0.0
2-11Georgia St. (146.2)SBH0-040%-2.8
2-13Georgia Southern (249.8)SBH0-058%2.3
2-16Troy (292.2)SBH0-061%3.1
2-18Appalachian St. (260.0)SBA0-035%-4.3
2-25Louisiana Monroe (173.3)SBH0-038%-3.3
2-27Louisiana Lafayette (107.6)SBH0-022%-8.5
3-3UT Arlington (102.4)SBA0-06%-17.3
3-5Texas St. (278.8)SBA0-032%-5.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Alabama's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Alabama's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Alabama.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South AlabamaSB26.4026.4736.8435.03-6.95-7.92
Georgia St.SB3.314.6255.5654.160.370.38
TroySB3.364.6025.0027.21-1.68-2.10
UT ArlingtonSB3.144.5770.0072.221.252.03
Appalachian St.SB3.154.5527.2728.95-1.43-1.91
Arkansas Little RockSB5.404.5489.4785.914.273.26
Arkansas St.SB5.404.5436.8434.69-1.42-1.39
Louisiana MonroeSB3.144.5440.0043.80-0.63-0.56
Georgia SouthernSB3.144.5342.1140.39-0.50-0.87
Louisiana LafayetteSB3.134.5355.5659.560.350.87
Texas St.SB3.084.5335.2934.88-0.91-1.37
Southern MissCUSA2.561.9427.7829.37-1.14-0.80
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.551.8870.0068.291.020.69
RiceCUSA2.561.8830.0030.74-1.02-0.72
IUPUISum2.591.8841.6741.16-0.43-0.33
SamfordSC2.441.7843.4844.13-0.32-0.21
DenverSum2.481.7852.1750.080.110.00
North Carolina St.ACC2.481.7847.8347.39-0.11-0.09
BelmontOVC2.441.7565.2265.350.740.54
LSUSEC2.431.7563.6458.930.660.31
North TexasCUSA0.400.3033.3333.02-0.13-0.10
Louisiana TechCUSA0.300.2871.4368.720.130.10
UABCUSA0.230.2582.6179.410.150.14
UTEPCUSA0.300.2552.1751.940.010.01
MississippiSEC0.230.2165.2259.020.070.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.270.2163.6462.150.070.05
UTSACUSA0.240.1913.6413.62-0.18-0.14
Old DominionCUSA0.180.1956.5262.790.020.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.340.1821.0527.79-0.20-0.08
CharlotteCUSA0.170.1834.7840.93-0.05-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.180.1617.6529.21-0.12-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.160.1545.4546.27-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.180.1559.0953.040.030.01
IdahoBSky0.220.1554.5554.950.020.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.250.1577.2776.870.140.08
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1439.1341.12-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.160.1466.6762.220.050.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.120.1222.7327.19-0.07-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.110.1250.0051.180.000.00
FIUCUSA0.120.1240.9145.29-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.170.1238.1037.70-0.04-0.03
The CitadelSC0.160.1231.8230.06-0.06-0.05
AuburnSEC0.170.1240.9136.60-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1237.5040.54-0.04-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1286.9686.690.080.09
MemphisAmer0.170.1260.8760.780.040.03
DukeACC0.160.1275.0071.700.080.05
IPFWSum0.100.1270.8368.570.040.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.1256.5256.320.020.01
South DakotaSum0.100.1241.6741.24-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1227.7829.14-0.06-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.200.1221.7423.39-0.11-0.06
FurmanSC0.150.1254.1754.070.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.110.1259.0961.320.020.03
MercerSC0.150.1269.5769.090.060.04
MissouriSEC0.160.1234.7830.38-0.05-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.100.1182.6178.660.070.06
Miami FLACC0.110.0981.8276.750.070.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.180.0950.0054.210.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.110.0950.0052.350.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.0966.6762.630.040.02
WinthropBSth0.110.0965.0063.440.030.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.0925.0024.35-0.05-0.05
LipscombASun0.150.0925.0029.27-0.07-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.160.0917.3920.66-0.11-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.160.0947.8350.14-0.010.00
TulaneAmer0.110.0933.3332.31-0.04-0.03
HoustonAmer0.110.0969.5766.530.040.03
South FloridaAmer0.110.0920.0019.67-0.06-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.0927.2731.06-0.05-0.03
MarquetteBE0.150.0962.5056.200.040.01
Wake ForestACC0.100.0843.4840.57-0.01-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0627.7834.19-0.03-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.5257.280.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.069.0917.12-0.05-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0676.1972.290.030.03
UCLAP120.060.0656.5253.240.010.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0614.2915.45-0.05-0.04
Washington St.P120.070.0636.3631.98-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.5257.000.010.01
StetsonASun0.060.0623.8127.69-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0622.7323.24-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.110.0645.4549.70-0.01-0.00
BaylorB120.110.0672.7366.460.050.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0644.0045.27-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.110.0634.7834.54-0.03-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.110.0643.4842.00-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0659.0959.350.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0663.6459.460.020.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0626.0927.81-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.0610.0013.14-0.09-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0617.6526.67-0.04-0.03
OregonP120.110.0682.6179.220.070.03
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0046.710.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.110.0672.7372.060.050.03
Seton HallBE0.060.0673.9169.840.030.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0668.1866.690.020.02
Texas TechB120.110.0659.0953.170.020.00
TulsaAmer0.110.0665.2261.430.030.01
UC RiversideBW0.110.0645.8341.65-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.100.0681.8283.040.060.04
VMISC0.050.0615.0016.70-0.03-0.04
West VirginiaB120.060.0682.6179.560.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0628.5731.26-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.100.0643.4846.23-0.01-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0652.0050.240.000.00
Arizona St.P120.100.0654.1751.640.010.00
LouisvilleACC0.100.0679.1776.080.060.03
BradleyMVC0.060.0612.5012.85-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.060.0655.0052.260.010.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0615.0018.08-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.060.0658.3354.120.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0652.1755.940.000.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0665.2266.070.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.100.0669.5764.850.040.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0665.2264.210.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0650.0049.850.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0673.9171.560.020.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0634.7836.50-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0672.2275.580.020.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0678.2678.050.030.03
ToledoMAC0.060.0359.0960.100.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0365.2266.170.020.01
VCUA100.060.0373.9173.910.030.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0345.4538.46-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0366.6769.510.020.01
CaliforniaP120.060.0365.2262.840.020.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0321.7422.73-0.03-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0340.9143.53-0.01-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0352.3854.010.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0375.0076.230.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0325.0025.09-0.02-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0361.9059.630.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0350.0049.770.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0345.0046.12-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0352.9452.160.000.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0330.0029.25-0.02-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0359.0959.640.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0354.1751.850.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.060.0360.8763.000.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0328.5726.96-0.02-0.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0361.9056.420.010.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0331.8229.13-0.02-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0354.5550.100.010.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0330.4331.18-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0313.6415.79-0.04-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.94-0.02-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0365.0069.270.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0343.4842.49-0.01-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0363.6459.220.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0369.5767.170.020.01
CreightonBE0.050.0362.5059.800.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0352.1751.960.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0331.8230.47-0.02-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0339.1337.73-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0379.1776.510.030.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0315.0015.35-0.03-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0330.4331.91-0.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0330.4326.54-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0354.5558.170.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0358.3358.410.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0363.6460.930.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0345.4547.56-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0361.9056.690.010.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0352.1751.630.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0355.0057.480.000.00
MichiganB100.050.0369.5766.240.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0340.9140.65-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0365.2267.160.020.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0345.8346.64-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0370.8367.730.000.01
OklahomaB120.050.0386.9682.610.040.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0376.1968.210.030.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0386.3679.140.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6762.580.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0347.8346.89-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0356.5260.010.010.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0382.6178.070.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0354.1749.230.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0371.4369.860.020.01