South Alabama

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	154.0
Current RPI:	154
Expected SOS:	189
Current SOS:	189
Current Record:	16-12
Expected Record:	16-12
Current Conf Record:	14-7
Expected Conf Record:	14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-3
Current OOC Record:	2-5
Expected OOC Record:	2-5
Expected OOC RPI:	282
Expected OOC SOS:	252

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-12	154.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Alabama.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Florida St. (85.0)	ACC	A	71-76	W	100%
11-19	Tennessee St. (105.0)	OVC	N	68-57	L	0%
11-20	Monmouth (282.0)	NEC	N	71-73	L	0%
11-21	Georgia St. (209.0)	CAA	A	75-73	L	0%
11-29	Florida Atlantic (218.0)	SB	A	66-77	W	100%
12-1	Florida International (111.0)	SB	A	68-79	W	100%
12-4	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	H	52-58	L	0%
12-8	UAB (144.0)	CUSA	A	92-78	L	0%
12-16	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)	Slnd	H	74-69	W	100%
12-22	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	H	77-62	W	100%
12-29	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	H	54-63	L	0%
1-3	Louisiana Monroe (305.0)	SB	A	72-77	W	100%
1-5	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	H	56-60	L	0%
1-10	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	A	89-91	W	100%
1-12	North Texas (247.0)	SB	A	66-56	L	0%
1-17	Louisiana Monroe (305.0)	SB	H	71-56	W	100%
1-24	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	H	65-57	W	100%
1-27	Florida International (111.0)	SB	H	60-58	W	100%
1-31	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	A	74-62	L	0%
2-2	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	A	66-70	W	100%
2-7	Troy (279.0)	SB	H	65-62	W	100%
2-9	Florida Atlantic (218.0)	SB	H	72-71	W	100%
2-14	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	H	88-64	W	100%
2-21	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	A	85-50	L	0%
2-23	North Texas (247.0)	SB	H	69-57	W	100%
2-28	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	A	79-73	L	0%
3-2	Troy (279.0)	SB	A	49-53	W	100%
3-9	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	N	59-62	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Alabama's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

South Alabama's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against South Alabama.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
South Alabama	SB	26.48	26.48	58.46	58.46	4.48	4.48
Western Kentucky	SB	6.58	6.58	54.84	54.84	0.64	0.64
Florida International	SB	4.85	4.85	60.00	60.00	0.97	0.97
Troy	SB	4.84	4.84	38.71	38.71	-1.09	-1.09
Middle Tennessee	SB	4.83	4.83	83.87	83.87	3.27	3.27
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	4.80	4.80	40.00	40.00	-0.96	-0.96
Arkansas St.	SB	4.78	4.78	57.14	57.14	0.68	0.68
Louisiana Monroe	SB	4.77	4.77	16.00	16.00	-3.24	-3.24
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	4.71	4.71	55.17	55.17	0.49	0.49
Florida Atlantic	SB	4.71	4.71	44.83	44.83	-0.49	-0.49
North Texas	SB	4.71	4.71	35.71	35.71	-1.34	-1.34
UAB	CUSA	1.96	1.96	45.16	45.16	-0.19	-0.19
Georgia St.	CAA	1.90	1.90	44.83	44.83	-0.20	-0.20
Tennessee St.	OVC	1.90	1.90	51.72	51.72	0.07	0.07
Florida St.	ACC	1.85	1.85	56.25	56.25	0.23	0.23
Monmouth	NEC	1.85	1.85	30.00	30.00	-0.74	-0.74
New Mexico St.	WAC	1.84	1.84	68.75	68.75	0.69	0.69
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	1.79	1.79	18.52	18.52	-1.12	-1.12
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.32	0.32	80.65	80.65	0.20	0.20
Lamar	Slnd	0.24	0.24	9.68	9.68	-0.19	-0.19
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.22	0.22	71.88	71.88	0.10	0.10
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.22	0.22	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Stetson	ASun	0.17	0.17	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.17	0.17	20.69	20.69	-0.10	-0.10
Murray St.	OVC	0.17	0.17	65.52	65.52	0.05	0.05
North Carolina	ACC	0.17	0.17	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.16	0.16	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.15	0.15	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Hofstra	CAA	0.15	0.15	19.35	19.35	-0.09	-0.09
Dayton	A10	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.14	0.14	80.00	80.00	0.09	0.09
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.14	0.14	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
Louisville	BE	0.13	0.13	85.29	85.29	0.10	0.10
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.12	0.12	85.19	85.19	0.08	0.08
Houston	CUSA	0.12	0.12	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Robert Morris	NEC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.11	0.11	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.11	0.11	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.11	0.11	35.71	35.71	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Northeastern	CAA	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Denver	WAC	0.09	0.09	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.09	0.09	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.09	0.09	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Idaho	WAC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	70.37	70.37	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Elon	SC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01