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Through games of Nov 20, 2014.


South Alabama

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:252.8
Current RPI:324
Expected SOS:225
Current SOS:300
Current Record:0-1
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:0-1
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:281
Expected OOC SOS:237



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-880.00.01%
20-999.70.03%
19-10106.10.09%
18-11126.10.44%
17-12142.41.03%
16-13161.62.45%
15-14182.05.11%
14-15202.59.22%
13-16223.612.46%
12-17243.216.37%
11-18262.416.29%
10-19280.414.18%
9-20295.910.51%
8-21310.16.68%
7-22322.03.44%
6-23329.81.23%
5-24338.00.30%
4-25345.70.13%
3-26345.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Alabama.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Southern Miss (146.5)CUSAA68-59L0%0.0
11-22Detroit (143.6)HorzA0-016%-12.0
11-28Miami FL (29.5)ACCA0-04%-21.3
12-6Middle Tennessee (167.7)CUSAH0-043%-2.1
12-15Pepperdine (148.9)WCCA0-017%-11.5
12-18Richmond (83.0)A10A0-09%-15.7
12-20IUPUI (280.1)SumA0-045%-1.5
12-23Howard (318.2)MEACH0-075%8.3
12-30Arkansas St. (244.0)SBH0-057%2.0
1-3UT Arlington (149.9)SBA0-025%-8.3
1-5Arkansas Little Rock (192.0)SBA0-028%-7.1
1-8Appalachian St. (332.1)SBH0-084%11.9
1-10Georgia Southern (237.3)SBH0-058%2.5
1-15Texas St. (166.5)SBA0-028%-7.0
1-17Louisiana Lafayette (147.7)SBA0-020%-9.9
1-19Arkansas Little Rock (192.0)SBH0-050%0.1
1-22Appalachian St. (332.1)SBA0-065%4.8
1-25NJIT (296.0)indH0-075%8.1
1-29Louisiana Lafayette (147.7)SBH0-041%-2.7
1-31Louisiana Monroe (174.7)SBA0-029%-6.7
2-4Texas St. (166.5)SBH0-051%0.2
2-7Georgia St. (120.5)SBH0-036%-4.2
2-12Troy (239.8)SBA0-035%-4.8
2-14UT Arlington (149.9)SBH0-046%-1.1
2-19Georgia St. (120.5)SBA0-017%-11.3
2-21Georgia Southern (237.3)SBA0-035%-4.7
2-26Louisiana Monroe (174.7)SBH0-051%0.4
3-5Arkansas St. (244.0)SBA0-033%-5.2
3-7Troy (239.8)SBH0-058%2.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Alabama's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Alabama's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Alabama.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South AlabamaSB37.5026.530.0039.80-37.50-5.41
Georgia St.SB0.004.650.0060.06-0.000.94
TroySB0.004.610.0043.89-0.00-0.56
Appalachian St.SB0.004.590.0014.75-0.00-3.23
UT ArlingtonSB0.004.5966.6754.500.000.41
Arkansas St.SB0.004.580.0044.52-0.00-0.50
Arkansas Little RockSB0.004.580.0049.43-0.00-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.004.580.0058.04-0.000.74
Georgia SouthernSB0.004.570.0044.17-0.00-0.53
Louisiana MonroeSB0.004.57100.0051.050.000.10
Texas St.SB0.004.57100.0055.010.000.46
Southern MissCUSA50.001.900.0051.62-50.000.06
HowardMEAC0.001.880.0033.12-0.00-0.63
IUPUISum0.001.8733.3327.91-0.00-0.83
RichmondA100.001.8150.0060.240.000.37
PepperdineWCC0.001.81100.0049.700.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.001.790.0048.99-0.00-0.04
Miami FLACC0.001.75100.0067.320.000.61
NJITind0.001.7533.3330.08-0.00-0.70
DetroitHorz0.001.720.0052.17-0.000.07
Green BayHorz0.000.270.0066.43-0.000.09
UABCUSA0.000.190.0041.28-0.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.190.0021.38-0.00-0.11
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1950.0067.190.000.06
UTSACUSA0.000.160.0029.13-0.00-0.07
FIUCUSA0.000.16100.0044.790.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.160.0063.68-0.000.04
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1550.0055.890.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.15100.0066.730.000.05
Old DominionCUSA0.000.15100.0070.930.000.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.130.0052.18-0.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.130.0033.91-0.00-0.04
TulsaAmer0.000.1366.6757.250.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1325.0030.26-0.00-0.05
TexasB120.000.13100.0084.350.000.09
BYUWCC0.000.13100.0068.310.000.05
MarshallCUSA0.000.12100.0041.770.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.120.0034.44-0.00-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.12100.0043.270.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.100.0028.74-0.00-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.10100.0044.020.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.10100.0045.740.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.1050.0068.630.000.04
IllinoisB100.000.10100.0060.930.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1033.3335.35-0.00-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0950.0037.190.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.09100.0072.220.000.04
DuquesneA100.000.090.0051.69-0.000.00
AlabamaSEC12.500.09100.0056.8512.500.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.090.0035.31-0.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.09100.0053.320.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.090.0031.43-0.00-0.03
PurdueB100.000.09100.0061.020.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.090.0058.38-0.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.09100.0050.010.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0750.0064.020.000.02
MaineAE0.000.070.0022.72-0.00-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.000.0733.3331.05-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.070.0063.86-0.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0766.6761.240.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.070.0033.38-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0733.3333.83-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0750.0053.850.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.070.0066.74-0.000.02
StetsonASun0.000.070.0031.63-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0750.0043.510.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.07100.0067.240.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.070.0035.57-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0049.85-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0033.98-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0650.0054.530.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0058.910.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0045.95-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0666.6760.300.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.06100.0056.370.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0035.44-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0650.0059.510.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.060.0038.06-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.06100.0048.410.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0650.0029.910.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0046.460.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0061.570.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0650.0051.650.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0029.01-0.00-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0087.640.000.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0040.830.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3328.73-0.00-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0036.790.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0650.0029.100.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0044.49-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0650.0030.220.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0049.930.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0071.430.000.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0666.6749.560.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.06100.0060.870.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0047.360.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0650.0035.660.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0650.0063.260.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0650.0052.080.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0650.0053.110.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.060.0036.60-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0633.3334.10-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0069.58-0.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0666.6741.230.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.060.0025.25-0.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0666.6762.170.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0650.0056.950.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0650.0024.870.00-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0633.3350.61-0.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0650.0061.290.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0025.74-0.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0023.67-0.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0085.280.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0077.610.000.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.060.0023.81-0.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.0650.0055.290.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0064.340.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.060.0059.82-0.000.01
FordhamA100.000.060.0036.83-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.06100.0068.990.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3343.60-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0650.0046.350.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0062.600.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0061.120.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0666.6747.950.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0026.57-0.00-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0062.270.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0650.0062.850.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.300.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.06100.0063.800.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0650.0035.720.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0035.01-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.060.0049.36-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.060.0045.35-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0033.91-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.06100.0049.500.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0633.3324.67-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.06100.0071.490.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0650.0050.330.000.00
VCUA100.000.06100.0076.230.000.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0046.79-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0033.87-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.03100.0061.790.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0366.6764.300.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0043.54-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0054.560.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0055.09-0.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.030.0048.12-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0053.570.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0068.630.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.030.0054.91-0.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.03100.0063.440.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0047.13-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0062.880.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.030.0039.41-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0350.0040.820.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0019.35-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0032.05-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0366.6773.790.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.34-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.03100.0064.920.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0019.51-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0084.320.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.03100.0069.720.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0350.0071.660.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0055.69-0.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0065.830.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0350.0046.570.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0333.3357.17-0.000.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0085.060.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0071.690.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0067.660.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0333.3351.93-0.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0070.180.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0049.980.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.03100.0057.350.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0062.990.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0044.87-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6770.630.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0029.61-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0066.870.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.030.0036.23-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0029.13-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0063.340.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0350.0052.180.000.00
XavierBE0.000.03100.0070.050.000.01
DaytonA100.000.03100.0072.390.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.03100.0057.950.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6743.460.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.03100.0056.340.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.03100.0063.480.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0067.300.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0333.3333.86-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.03100.0068.930.000.01