live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Saint Peter's

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:130.0
Current RPI:130
Expected SOS:183
Current SOS:183
Current Record:19-13
Expected Record:19-13
Current Conf Record:15-7
Expected Conf Record:15-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:224
Expected OOC SOS:254



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-13130.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Saint Peter's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Lafayette (321.0)PatH57-61L0%0.0
11-18Lipscomb (189.0)ASunN90-77W100%0.0
11-19Fordham (215.0)A10A63-41L0%0.0
11-20Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECN58-84W100%0.0
11-28Boston University (187.0)PatH80-67W100%0.0
12-2Iona (89.0)MAACH65-79L0%0.0
12-4Manhattan (263.0)MAACH84-70W100%0.0
12-7Houston Baptist (175.0)SlndA62-47L0%0.0
12-10Maryland (36.0)B10A66-56L0%0.0
12-18Elon (161.0)CAAH53-68L0%0.0
12-23St. Francis NY (348.0)NECA58-65W100%0.0
12-28Notre Dame (23.0)ACCA63-55L0%0.0
1-2Monmouth (49.0)MAACH71-61W100%0.0
1-7Siena (122.0)MAACA56-54L0%0.0
1-9Quinnipiac (272.0)MAACH58-54W100%0.0
1-15Rider (198.0)MAACA65-71W100%0.0
1-17Fairfield (180.0)MAACA55-69W100%0.0
1-19Siena (122.0)MAACH77-65W100%0.0
1-21Niagara (275.0)MAACH55-57L0%0.0
1-23Rider (198.0)MAACH56-51W100%0.0
1-26Marist (276.0)MAACA65-81W100%0.0
1-29Iona (89.0)MAACA69-66L0%0.0
2-3Monmouth (49.0)MAACA71-70L0%0.0
2-6Canisius (171.0)MAACH70-72L0%0.0
2-9Quinnipiac (272.0)MAACA45-76W100%0.0
2-12Manhattan (263.0)MAACA50-69W100%0.0
2-14Marist (276.0)MAACH71-46W100%0.0
2-19Fairfield (180.0)MAACH74-55W100%0.0
2-24Niagara (275.0)MAACA53-66W100%0.0
2-26Canisius (171.0)MAACA65-72W100%0.0
3-3Canisius (171.0)MAACN61-58W100%0.0
3-5Iona (89.0)MAACN65-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Saint Peter's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Saint Peter's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Saint Peter's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Saint Peter'sMAAC26.4626.4660.9060.905.775.77
IonaMAAC5.735.7361.2961.291.291.29
CanisiusMAAC5.705.7056.6756.670.760.76
SienaMAAC4.264.2650.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC4.234.2358.0658.060.680.68
NiagaraMAAC4.184.1829.0329.03-1.75-1.75
ManhattanMAAC4.184.1833.3333.33-1.39-1.39
MonmouthMAAC4.184.1883.8783.872.832.83
MaristMAAC4.154.1526.6726.67-1.94-1.94
QuinnipiacMAAC4.134.1334.4834.48-1.28-1.28
FairfieldMAAC4.124.1257.1457.140.590.59
St. Francis NYNEC1.761.7610.3410.34-1.40-1.40
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.731.7335.7135.71-0.50-0.50
FordhamA101.711.7136.6736.67-0.46-0.46
Boston UniversityPat1.691.6956.6756.670.220.22
LafayettePat1.641.6425.0025.00-0.82-0.82
LipscombASun1.611.6158.6258.620.280.28
ElonCAA1.561.5651.7251.720.050.05
Houston BaptistSlnd1.561.5648.0048.00-0.06-0.06
MarylandB101.561.5673.3373.330.730.73
Notre DameACC1.561.5672.7372.730.710.71
WagnerNEC0.280.2851.7251.720.010.01
DrexelCAA0.270.2725.8125.81-0.13-0.13
ArmyPat0.260.2638.7138.71-0.06-0.06
BucknellPat0.250.2576.4776.470.130.13
Holy CrossPat0.250.2546.8846.88-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.230.2346.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.210.2140.6240.62-0.04-0.04
AlbanyAE0.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
Florida St.ACC0.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
LIU BrooklynNEC0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
NJITASun0.170.1731.0331.03-0.07-0.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
BrownIvy0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
RutgersB100.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.150.1584.8584.850.100.10
HartfordAE0.150.1528.1228.12-0.06-0.06
NevadaMWC0.140.1482.3582.350.090.09
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
AmericanPat0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
LehighPat0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
BryantNEC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
ColgatePat0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
DuquesneA100.120.1231.2531.25-0.05-0.05
DukeACC0.120.1277.1477.140.070.07
CornellIvy0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
BuffaloMAC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
SyracuseACC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
PennIvy0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Ohio St.B100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
MaineAE0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
RichmondA100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
VirginiaACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
George WashingtonA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.073.333.33-0.07-0.07
DrakeMVC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0718.5218.52-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0619.2319.23-0.04-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
IndianaB100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00