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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Saint Peter's

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:240.0
Current RPI:251
Expected SOS:291
Current SOS:292
Current Record:8-11
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:2-6
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:207
Expected OOC SOS:331



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-11163.40.07%
17-12180.01.14%
16-13198.15.70%
15-14214.515.62%
14-15230.325.06%
13-16245.824.74%
12-17261.817.49%
11-18278.27.75%
10-19293.42.11%
9-20307.60.31%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Saint Peter's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11La Salle (181.1)A10A61-40L0%0.0
11-13Northwestern (129.0)B10A75-66L0%0.0
11-18Sacred Heart (315.8)NECN70-61W100%0.0
11-19South Alabama (234.2)SBN49-54L0%0.0
11-26Lafayette (311.5)PatA82-86W100%0.0
11-29Fairleigh Dickinson (280.4)NECH77-53W100%0.0
12-2Elon (143.6)CAAA71-65L0%0.0
12-6Houston Baptist (333.6)SlndH76-74W100%0.0
12-12Seton Hall (25.7)BEA84-61L0%0.0
12-17LIU Brooklyn (276.7)NECA56-71W100%0.0
12-23St. Francis NY (283.4)NECH71-68W100%0.0
12-28Fairfield (218.2)MAACA70-61L0%0.0
12-31Monmouth (173.2)MAACH77-64W100%0.0
1-5Iona (95.1)MAACA73-69L0%0.0
1-7Quinnipiac (303.1)MAACH84-58W100%0.0
1-12Canisius (125.5)MAACA70-58L0%0.0
1-14Niagara (187.6)MAACA73-70L0%0.0
1-18Rider (104.8)MAACH84-88L0%0.0
1-21Manhattan (203.8)MAACH57-68L0%0.0
1-26Rider (104.8)MAACA0-025%-7.4
1-29Siena (267.3)MAACA0-050%-0.0
2-2Niagara (187.6)MAACH0-066%4.5
2-4Canisius (125.5)MAACH0-050%-0.0
2-8Marist (317.8)MAACH0-083%10.4
2-10Iona (95.1)MAACH0-038%-3.3
2-13Monmouth (173.2)MAACA0-028%-6.5
2-17Marist (317.8)MAACA0-064%4.0
2-23Quinnipiac (303.1)MAACA0-061%3.1
2-25Siena (267.3)MAACH0-072%6.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Saint Peter's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Saint Peter's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Saint Peter's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Saint Peter'sMAAC26.3126.2944.1647.84-3.07-1.14
CanisiusMAAC3.104.3360.0062.350.621.07
IonaMAAC3.114.2857.8962.930.491.11
QuinnipiacMAAC2.974.2736.8432.70-0.78-1.48
MonmouthMAAC3.024.2729.4141.38-1.24-0.74
NiagaraMAAC2.984.2555.0052.070.300.18
SienaMAAC0.394.2528.5729.30-0.17-1.76
RiderMAAC3.034.2563.1663.760.801.17
MaristMAAC0.334.2421.0521.66-0.19-2.41
ManhattanMAAC3.122.6947.3749.17-0.16-0.04
FairfieldMAAC3.022.6635.2942.08-0.89-0.42
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.961.9925.0033.82-1.48-0.64
Sacred HeartNEC2.991.9731.5834.63-1.10-0.60
LIU BrooklynNEC2.861.9442.1143.98-0.45-0.23
St. Francis NYNEC2.831.9335.2936.51-0.83-0.52
Seton HallBE2.851.8473.6866.841.350.62
LafayettePat2.761.8123.5328.48-1.46-0.78
La SalleA102.771.7836.8440.78-0.73-0.33
NorthwesternB102.761.7852.6348.660.15-0.05
ElonCAA2.691.7850.0049.340.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB2.701.7547.0643.92-0.16-0.21
Houston BaptistSlnd2.631.726.2520.11-2.30-1.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.410.4157.1460.410.060.09
WagnerNEC0.490.3664.7164.560.140.10
BryantNEC0.200.309.5217.12-0.17-0.19
St. Francis PANEC0.270.3052.9459.250.020.05
Holy CrossPat0.410.2930.0032.58-0.17-0.10
ArmyPat0.210.2661.1160.440.050.05
HofstraCAA0.270.2657.8959.500.040.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.290.2452.3848.530.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.280.2442.1144.98-0.04-0.02
DrexelCAA0.340.2330.0030.97-0.14-0.09
LehighPat0.150.2338.8944.74-0.03-0.02
AlbanyAE0.200.2371.4370.250.090.09
BrownIvy0.270.2050.0045.130.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.210.2061.9068.000.050.07
HartfordAE0.330.2050.0045.930.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.130.1966.6768.750.040.07
NJITASun0.350.1838.8942.58-0.08-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.210.1770.0060.470.080.04
MassachusettsA100.190.1750.0046.810.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.270.1561.9055.820.070.02
PennIvy0.290.1564.7162.690.080.04
FordhamA100.270.1431.5829.03-0.10-0.06
DartmouthIvy0.190.1421.4326.34-0.11-0.07
St. John'sBE0.200.1447.3742.16-0.01-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.200.1483.3381.450.130.09
PrincetonIvy0.220.1252.9460.230.010.02
Loyola MDPat0.210.1222.2228.66-0.12-0.05
ColgatePat0.070.1250.0051.030.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.140.1227.7838.12-0.06-0.03
Texas St.SB0.210.1257.8950.210.030.00
TowsonCAA0.200.1263.1665.980.050.04
MaineAE0.200.1210.5314.83-0.16-0.08
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.1266.6765.630.020.04
HamptonMEAC0.130.1125.0043.18-0.07-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.130.1133.3333.87-0.04-0.04
YaleIvy0.140.1141.1847.61-0.02-0.01
VillanovaBE0.140.1194.7490.310.120.09
MinnesotaB100.130.1163.6457.610.040.02
VermontAE0.070.1175.0077.870.030.06
XavierBE0.130.1185.7180.060.090.07
BuffaloMAC0.130.1172.2274.940.060.06
NavyPat0.150.0960.0055.160.030.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0950.0053.280.000.01
MarylandB100.080.0966.6763.130.030.02
RutgersB100.140.0955.0046.650.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.070.0933.3336.93-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.140.0933.3333.23-0.05-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0957.8966.270.010.03
Texas TechB120.200.0978.9571.750.120.04
NebraskaB100.070.0963.6459.480.020.02
New HampshireAE0.140.0933.3340.10-0.05-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.0960.0062.010.030.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0945.0043.49-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.200.0875.0070.720.100.03
DePaulBE0.070.0842.1134.30-0.01-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.070.0878.9569.820.040.03
AmericanPat0.070.0625.0026.03-0.04-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.067.6920.080.00-0.04
LamarSlnd0.080.0650.0054.900.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0628.5731.24-0.03-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0650.0051.390.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0643.7549.11-0.01-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.067.6923.240.00-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.150.0637.5045.24-0.04-0.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0685.7183.760.060.04
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0631.5836.23-0.03-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0647.3743.000.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.140.0635.2935.54-0.04-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0666.6765.390.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0666.6765.550.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0625.0028.25-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0683.3381.420.000.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0626.6729.120.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.070.0663.1663.210.020.02
TroySB0.070.0638.8944.43-0.02-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0622.2227.31-0.04-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.070.0664.7160.010.020.01
DuquesneA100.140.0670.0058.090.060.01
George MasonA100.070.0645.0041.29-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.140.0636.8435.58-0.04-0.02
PurdueB100.140.0690.4888.390.110.04
TulaneAmer0.140.0663.1657.870.040.01
BinghamtonAE0.130.0642.1139.93-0.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.070.0660.0053.720.010.00
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0620.0032.24-0.04-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0652.6347.380.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.070.0673.6868.040.030.02
LibertyBSth0.070.0650.0054.180.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0676.1970.800.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0670.5975.960.000.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0666.6773.220.020.03
OhioMAC0.070.0647.0648.43-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0657.8950.860.000.00
SyracuseACC0.070.0668.4261.280.020.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0618.7518.370.00-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.070.0630.0039.95-0.03-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0652.6358.610.000.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0694.7486.110.070.04
Wake ForestACC0.070.0642.1140.46-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0656.2557.430.010.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0680.0076.040.000.03
WisconsinB100.000.0650.0046.270.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.130.0665.0054.600.040.01
IndianaB100.130.0660.0052.880.030.00
Air ForceMWC0.060.0637.5031.78-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0610.0016.77-0.05-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0633.3339.89-0.02-0.01
ButlerBE0.070.0666.6763.070.020.01
BYUWCC0.060.0680.9576.240.040.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0620.0023.33-0.04-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0652.6347.500.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.070.0668.4254.080.020.00
MarquetteBE0.070.0668.4260.530.020.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0665.0058.540.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0617.6534.76-0.04-0.02
PacificWCC0.060.0645.0044.49-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0051.640.000.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0647.3746.93-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0635.2940.46-0.02-0.01
VCUA100.130.0660.0059.710.030.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0621.0523.52-0.04-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0352.9452.670.000.00
BelmontOVC0.080.0371.4374.670.030.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0345.0049.280.00-0.00
DenverSum0.070.0333.3336.47-0.02-0.01
DetroitHorz0.080.0321.0525.99-0.04-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.037.1414.820.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0363.1661.000.020.01
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0368.4254.040.030.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0352.9455.030.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0380.0078.870.000.02
UTSACUSA0.080.0341.1839.66-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.080.0370.0060.400.030.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0327.7831.080.00-0.01
DukeACC0.070.0389.4785.240.050.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0329.4133.93-0.03-0.01
FurmanSC0.070.0366.6768.540.020.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0338.8940.78-0.02-0.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0378.9573.000.040.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0344.4446.03-0.01-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0333.3333.76-0.02-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0322.2225.190.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0345.0047.06-0.01-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0378.9576.770.040.02
RadfordBSth0.070.0357.8958.880.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0336.8432.75-0.02-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.0026.13-0.02-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0341.1838.47-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0368.7567.610.030.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0368.4269.260.030.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.030.003.06-0.07-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.070.0352.6343.040.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.070.0337.5046.70-0.02-0.00
IllinoisB100.070.0345.0043.62-0.01-0.00
IowaB100.000.0347.6243.940.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.070.0347.0641.38-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0370.0068.290.030.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0333.3340.35-0.02-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0341.1839.14-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0381.8276.870.040.02
OklahomaB120.070.0377.7868.030.040.01
Stony BrookAE0.070.0336.8445.19-0.02-0.00
TulsaAmer0.070.0355.0053.330.010.00
UMKCWAC0.070.0321.0524.76-0.04-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0347.3748.77-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0358.8261.440.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0347.3750.940.000.00
MercerSC0.070.0344.4454.87-0.010.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0377.7870.410.040.01
RichmondA100.070.0331.5834.35-0.02-0.01
TempleAmer0.070.0352.6351.740.000.00