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Through games of Jan 16, 2017.


Saint Mary's

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:19.5
Current RPI:19
Expected SOS:82
Current SOS:50
Current Record:15-2
Expected Record:25-4
Current Conf Record:5-1
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC RPI:24
Expected OOC SOS:65



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-213.412.54%
26-317.336.18%
25-420.833.24%
24-524.714.05%
23-629.73.34%
22-736.00.56%
21-845.90.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Saint Mary's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Nevada (36.6)MWCH81-63W100%0.0
11-16Prairie View A&M (294.9)SWACH110-72W100%0.0
11-19Dayton (31.5)A10A57-61W100%0.0
11-22San Jose St. (187.5)MWCH81-64W100%0.0
11-27UAB (128.5)CUSAN76-63W100%0.0
11-30Stanford (88.3)P12A51-66W100%0.0
12-8UT Arlington (54.6)SBH51-65L0%0.0
12-11UC Irvine (142.4)BWH84-53W100%0.0
12-14Western Kentucky (216.3)CUSAH73-51W100%0.0
12-20Texas A&M Corpus Chris (211.7)SlndH67-46W100%0.0
12-22South Carolina St. (302.3)MEACH74-47W100%0.0
12-29Loyola Marymount (152.7)WCCA60-72W100%0.0
12-31San Diego (189.3)WCCH72-60W100%0.0
1-5BYU (62.7)WCCH81-68W100%0.0
1-7San Francisco (111.9)WCCA52-63W100%0.0
1-12Portland (195.8)WCCA33-74W100%0.0
1-14Gonzaga (6.4)WCCA79-56L0%0.0
1-19Pacific (214.1)WCCH0-098%22.4
1-21Pepperdine (249.4)WCCH0-099%24.9
1-26San Francisco (111.9)WCCH0-092%15.4
1-28Santa Clara (161.0)WCCA0-084%11.2
2-2Pacific (214.1)WCCA0-093%16.1
2-4San Diego (189.3)WCCA0-092%15.5
2-9Portland (195.8)WCCH0-097%21.5
2-11Gonzaga (6.4)WCCH0-039%-3.1
2-16Loyola Marymount (152.7)WCCH0-095%18.3
2-18BYU (62.7)WCCA0-060%2.9
2-23Pepperdine (249.4)WCCA0-095%18.7
2-25Santa Clara (161.0)WCCH0-094%17.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Saint Mary's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Saint Mary's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Saint Mary's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Saint Mary'sWCC26.5226.3987.0186.2419.6319.13
Santa ClaraWCC0.624.4550.0049.270.00-0.06
PacificWCC0.594.4538.8937.09-0.13-1.15
Loyola MarymountWCC3.374.4453.3351.500.220.13
BYUWCC3.204.4072.2271.491.421.89
San FranciscoWCC3.194.3964.7162.540.941.10
San DiegoWCC3.104.3950.0043.050.00-0.61
PepperdineWCC0.364.3923.5323.18-0.19-2.35
PortlandWCC3.234.3953.3345.420.22-0.40
GonzagaWCC3.114.33100.0098.133.114.16
NevadaMWC3.221.9488.2480.932.461.20
San Jose St.MWC3.111.9053.8542.500.24-0.28
UC IrvineBW3.021.8752.9460.440.180.39
DaytonA103.031.7980.0078.751.821.03
UT ArlingtonSB3.031.7966.6769.321.010.69
Western KentuckyCUSA3.031.7850.0046.720.00-0.12
UABCUSA3.021.7862.5065.860.750.56
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.941.7218.7536.46-1.84-0.47
South Carolina St.MEAC2.941.7215.3830.60-2.04-0.67
StanfordP122.941.7256.2548.900.37-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.941.7250.0055.260.000.18
San Diego St.MWC0.440.3056.2562.950.060.08
Portland St.BSky0.270.2453.8554.520.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.260.2440.0040.97-0.05-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.270.2140.0046.16-0.05-0.02
UCLAP120.260.2194.7489.330.240.16
Fresno St.MWC0.270.2156.2552.000.030.01
ArizonaP120.250.2188.8983.100.200.14
USCP120.250.2084.2172.840.170.09
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.330.2014.2927.63-0.24-0.09
Colorado St.MWC0.280.1856.2553.650.040.01
Boise St.MWC0.090.1866.6766.780.030.06
Oregon St.P120.260.1817.6515.00-0.17-0.12
ColoradoP120.170.1852.9454.280.010.02
UC RiversideBW0.090.1815.3827.54-0.06-0.08
Utah St.MWC0.160.1743.7543.67-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.170.1550.0049.650.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.110.1520.0029.47-0.07-0.06
WyomingMWC0.080.1562.5055.530.020.02
UNLVMWC0.080.1550.0045.100.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.260.1526.6732.20-0.12-0.05
TroySB0.260.1547.0648.10-0.02-0.01
UtahP120.170.1566.6764.720.060.04
WashingtonP120.330.1447.0642.27-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.160.1453.8564.140.010.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.1323.0831.01-0.05-0.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.320.1333.3333.47-0.11-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.180.1222.2225.46-0.10-0.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.1230.7736.76-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.290.1253.3345.920.02-0.01
South DakotaSum0.180.1257.8957.120.030.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.120.0014.42-0.08-0.09
Air ForceMWC0.110.1243.7537.53-0.01-0.03
Washington St.P120.190.1250.0035.490.00-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1262.5062.550.000.03
St. BonaventureA100.090.1264.7161.890.030.03
UTSACUSA0.200.1243.7538.32-0.02-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.170.1255.5654.690.020.01
Long Beach St.BW0.080.1222.2236.06-0.05-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.1211.1123.11-0.07-0.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.1217.6521.39-0.06-0.07
Coastal CarolinaSB0.170.1243.7543.63-0.02-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.160.1240.0044.63-0.03-0.01
Saint LouisA100.080.1229.4125.22-0.03-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.170.1121.4336.57-0.10-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.1121.4326.05-0.05-0.06
UC DavisBW0.000.1152.9454.860.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.090.1155.5660.010.010.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.160.1182.3582.770.110.07
ValparaisoHorz0.080.1177.7877.110.040.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.1037.5044.66-0.02-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.200.1035.7148.96-0.06-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.190.0912.5024.44-0.14-0.05
Southern UtahBSky0.200.0912.5019.03-0.15-0.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.200.0935.7136.22-0.06-0.03
MontanaBSky0.110.0952.6360.450.010.02
Little RockSB0.000.0956.2551.280.000.00
AkronMAC0.170.0981.2573.540.110.04
CaliforniaP120.080.0972.2266.070.040.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.170.0988.2484.380.130.06
BelmontOVC0.080.0973.3373.100.040.04
MassachusettsA100.090.0961.1159.210.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.180.0950.0066.220.000.03
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0947.0643.82-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.096.2511.84-0.08-0.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0917.6524.63-0.06-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.170.0937.5051.06-0.040.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0918.7528.06-0.05-0.04
FIUCUSA0.080.0912.5021.96-0.06-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0921.4327.27-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0962.5068.360.020.03
UTEPCUSA0.080.0918.7523.85-0.05-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0843.7543.54-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0861.1162.130.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.0725.0031.95-0.05-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.220.0756.2553.010.030.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0730.7743.59-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0723.0831.10-0.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.190.0675.0063.150.100.02
FurmanSC0.190.0650.0054.850.000.01
IdahoBSky0.190.0635.7144.07-0.05-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0637.5043.15-0.02-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0628.5731.64-0.04-0.02
Arizona St.P120.090.0650.0044.340.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.090.0622.2235.43-0.05-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0660.0054.070.000.00
DuquesneA100.090.0650.0042.110.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.090.0682.3576.960.060.03
FordhamA100.090.0635.2931.83-0.03-0.02
Iowa St.B120.090.0664.7161.910.030.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0625.0028.48-0.00-0.03
OregonP120.000.0688.2482.770.000.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0638.8939.13-0.02-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.090.0664.7167.000.030.02
SamfordSC0.090.0664.7159.940.030.01
South AlabamaSB0.090.0643.7541.36-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.0650.0050.990.000.00
VCUA100.000.0677.7873.920.000.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.170.0675.0076.810.090.03
George MasonA100.090.0664.7156.530.030.01
George WashingtonA100.090.0650.0047.550.00-0.00
KansasB120.170.0694.4481.600.150.04
TexasB120.180.0641.1835.95-0.03-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.170.0623.5328.53-0.09-0.02
BradleyMVC0.170.0638.8934.48-0.04-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.160.0635.2937.74-0.05-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0656.2559.170.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0625.0029.61-0.04-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0656.2554.840.000.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0640.0044.09-0.02-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0650.0049.550.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0676.4777.720.040.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0631.2545.28-0.03-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0629.4134.21-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0633.3342.19-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0661.1154.400.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0642.1142.66-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.0633.3333.93-0.05-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0662.5065.700.000.02
RiceCUSA0.090.0662.5066.050.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0620.0019.52-0.00-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0653.3361.470.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.080.066.6718.58-0.07-0.03
IllinoisB100.080.0664.7154.360.020.00
IonaMAAC0.160.0655.5660.550.020.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0660.0066.130.020.02
ClemsonACC0.110.0364.7160.750.030.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0317.6529.59-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0312.5020.01-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0326.6740.15-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.110.0347.3748.91-0.01-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0312.5028.47-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.110.0356.2553.440.010.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0312.5033.74-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.110.0373.6873.940.050.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0318.7535.75-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0360.0072.720.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.110.0381.2572.930.070.02
SyracuseACC0.110.0357.8952.840.020.00
Wichita St.MVC0.110.0377.7882.460.060.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.0322.2230.94-0.06-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.110.0346.1551.22-0.010.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.0325.0033.65-0.06-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.110.0356.2553.900.010.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0360.0061.150.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0352.9455.240.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.0337.5036.25-0.03-0.01
DenverSum0.110.0361.1157.830.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0362.5057.020.020.00
ArkansasSEC0.090.0376.4768.380.050.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0364.7165.930.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0356.2555.710.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0368.7573.520.030.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0362.5060.080.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0353.3355.860.000.00
HarvardIvy0.090.0358.3361.490.010.01
La SalleA100.090.0366.6762.150.030.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0378.9570.150.050.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0336.8448.41-0.02-0.00
NebraskaB100.090.0350.0043.370.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.090.0378.9569.120.050.01
RichmondA100.000.0364.7158.460.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0047.550.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.090.0366.6758.210.030.00
SMUAmer0.090.0378.9576.690.050.02
VMISC0.090.0314.2915.94-0.07-0.02
WinthropBSth0.090.0373.3373.890.040.01
AuburnSEC0.090.0364.7154.930.030.00
HoustonAmer0.090.0372.2271.210.040.01
Kansas St.B120.090.0376.4759.430.050.01
MemphisAmer0.090.0372.2264.140.040.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0323.5328.53-0.04-0.01
WisconsinB100.090.0382.3581.030.060.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0333.3341.38-0.03-0.00
DetroitHorz0.080.0317.6524.27-0.05-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0333.3333.23-0.03-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0355.5653.980.010.00
MissouriSEC0.080.0331.2526.61-0.03-0.01
OaklandHorz0.080.0370.5972.850.030.01
OhioMAC0.080.0371.4369.670.030.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0350.0052.220.000.00