live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 22, 2018.


Saint Mary's

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:35.8
Current RPI:36
Expected SOS:159
Current SOS:151
Current Record:26-4
Expected Record:27-4
Current Conf Record:15-2
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:12-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:43
Expected OOC SOS:175



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-435.697.84%
26-549.12.16%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Saint Mary's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11St. Francis PA (162.1)NECH85-68W100%0.0
11-13New Mexico St. (50.5)WACH92-74W100%0.0
11-15Cal St. Fullerton (160.1)BWH76-57W100%0.0
11-19San Jose St. (312.1)MWCA61-79W100%0.0
11-23Harvard (136.8)IvyN71-89W100%0.0
11-24Washington St. (181.9)P12N84-79L0%0.0
11-26Georgia (76.0)SECN83-81L0%0.0
12-2California (205.7)P12A63-74W100%0.0
12-4Sacramento St. (304.1)BSkyH70-54W100%0.0
12-9Seattle (156.3)WACH97-73W100%0.0
12-16UC Irvine (129.3)BWH73-66W100%0.0
12-19Dayton (123.0)A10H69-54W100%0.0
12-22UNC Asheville (110.7)BSthH95-69W100%0.0
12-28Loyola Marymount (272.5)WCCH87-59W100%0.0
12-30BYU (78.7)WCCA64-74W100%0.0
1-4Pacific (170.5)WCCH74-56W100%0.0
1-6San Diego (155.9)WCCH70-63W100%0.0
1-11Santa Clara (247.2)WCCA57-81W100%0.0
1-13Pepperdine (327.6)WCCA67-91W100%0.0
1-18Gonzaga (29.4)WCCA71-74W100%0.0
1-20Pacific (170.5)WCCA69-72W100%0.0
1-25BYU (78.7)WCCH75-62W100%0.0
1-27Portland (265.6)WCCH72-55W100%0.0
2-1San Francisco (138.7)WCCH79-43W100%0.0
2-3San Diego (155.9)WCCA62-65W100%0.0
2-8Loyola Marymount (272.5)WCCA62-83W100%0.0
2-10Gonzaga (29.4)WCCH65-78L0%0.0
2-15San Francisco (138.7)WCCA70-63L0%0.0
2-17Portland (265.6)WCCA61-73W100%0.0
2-22Pepperdine (327.6)WCCH75-61W100%0.0
2-24Santa Clara (247.2)WCCH0-098%21.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Saint Mary's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Saint Mary's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Saint Mary's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Saint Mary'sWCC26.3826.3685.7185.9218.8518.94
PortlandWCC4.284.2228.0028.49-1.88-1.81
San FranciscoWCC4.224.1755.5655.770.470.48
San DiegoWCC4.224.1661.5460.690.970.89
Loyola MarymountWCC4.194.1332.0032.53-1.51-1.44
Santa ClaraWCC2.644.1338.4638.46-0.61-0.95
BYUWCC4.174.1178.5776.892.382.21
GonzagaWCC4.174.1189.2988.633.273.18
PacificWCC4.164.1148.1548.37-0.15-0.13
PepperdineWCC4.154.1111.5413.31-3.19-3.01
Cal St. FullertonBW1.981.8959.0960.040.360.38
SeattleWAC1.861.7864.0061.670.520.42
San Jose St.MWC1.821.788.339.87-1.52-1.43
Sacramento St.BSky1.821.7616.0018.75-1.24-1.10
New Mexico St.WAC1.821.7583.3383.931.211.19
CaliforniaP121.801.7330.7728.99-0.69-0.73
UC IrvineBW1.771.7048.1548.83-0.07-0.04
Washington St.P121.761.7038.4637.23-0.41-0.43
St. Francis PANEC1.721.6760.0060.420.340.35
GeorgiaSEC1.701.6453.8552.610.130.09
HarvardIvy1.701.6456.5257.110.220.23
DaytonA101.671.6150.0049.400.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth1.671.6166.6766.470.560.53
UC RiversideBW0.370.3424.0024.99-0.19-0.17
UC DavisBW0.340.3364.0064.330.090.10
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.340.3172.0073.110.150.14
San Diego St.MWC0.270.2760.0060.750.050.06
Cal PolyBW0.250.2626.9226.56-0.12-0.12
Portland St.BSky0.250.2656.0057.930.030.04
NevadaMWC0.240.2582.7681.580.160.16
WashingtonP120.240.2564.2963.590.070.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.230.2368.0067.350.080.08
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.220.2315.3816.06-0.15-0.15
Long Beach St.BW0.210.2340.7441.16-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.210.2270.3771.350.080.09
StanfordP120.210.2253.5752.200.010.01
USCP120.190.2068.9768.050.070.07
Idaho St.BSky0.220.1945.8343.83-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.170.1948.1549.63-0.01-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.190.1762.9663.810.050.05
Boise St.MWC0.190.1777.7876.660.100.09
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1715.3814.82-0.11-0.12
IdahoBSky0.160.1768.0068.860.060.06
Weber St.BSky0.180.1666.6764.800.060.05
MassachusettsA100.180.1639.2940.00-0.04-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.130.1444.4445.10-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.120.1448.1547.67-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.150.1450.0053.240.000.01
ColoradoP120.150.1453.5751.930.010.01
UtahP120.150.1366.6766.650.050.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1329.6335.52-0.06-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.1233.3333.30-0.03-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.130.120.001.05-0.13-0.11
New MexicoMWC0.130.1248.1548.45-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.100.1230.7731.41-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.070.1258.3355.790.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.1250.0049.330.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1235.7134.84-0.04-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.090.1133.3332.64-0.03-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.090.1133.3333.90-0.03-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.1134.4835.49-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.120.1167.8665.700.040.03
WyomingMWC0.120.1159.2657.470.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1144.4444.29-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.120.114.768.33-0.11-0.09
PrincetonIvy0.090.1141.6744.17-0.02-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1157.1457.420.020.02
RadfordBSth0.120.1157.1458.100.020.02
DuquesneA100.120.1153.5752.020.010.00
UCLAP120.120.1167.8666.650.040.04
FloridaSEC0.120.1160.7160.190.030.02
BryantNEC0.090.0910.0010.23-0.08-0.07
UTEPCUSA0.100.0930.7732.02-0.04-0.03
WagnerNEC0.090.0973.0872.390.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.090.0911.1111.25-0.07-0.07
PennIvy0.070.0872.0071.270.030.04
BelmontOVC0.090.0873.3373.730.040.04
WoffordSC0.100.0861.5459.640.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0860.0059.990.010.02
Saint LouisA100.090.0851.8551.900.000.00
MontanaBSky0.090.0872.0073.360.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0860.7160.800.010.02
WinthropBSth0.090.0860.0061.030.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0860.0060.730.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.060.0884.6283.660.040.05
ArizonaP120.060.0878.5778.670.040.05
AuburnSEC0.090.0885.7182.890.070.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0844.4446.61-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.090.0871.4368.240.040.03
OregonP120.060.0864.2963.890.020.02
VCUA100.090.0857.1457.840.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0832.0031.97-0.02-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.090.0860.7159.330.020.01
IUPUIHorz0.090.0832.0031.29-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0643.3343.91-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0634.6236.40-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0644.8345.55-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0653.5753.300.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0631.0331.11-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0640.7440.67-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.070.0645.4543.91-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0627.2730.96-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.030.0640.9140.41-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0622.7324.59-0.04-0.03
DePaulBE0.060.0637.0435.56-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.060.0659.2658.630.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0627.2729.23-0.03-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.060.0675.8674.360.030.03
OklahomaB120.060.0659.2659.430.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0656.0054.840.000.01
ValparaisoMVC0.030.0642.8642.97-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.070.0644.0045.43-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.060.0661.5460.920.010.01
DenverSum0.060.0644.0044.34-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.070.0633.3332.91-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.030.0646.4346.20-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.070.0667.8667.710.020.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0646.1547.65-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0640.0038.97-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0637.0437.11-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.060.0644.0043.59-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0651.8552.380.000.00
Little RockSB0.060.0619.2319.87-0.04-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.060.0642.3141.66-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0640.0041.77-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0646.1547.97-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0657.1454.930.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0629.6329.05-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0511.1111.11-0.05-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0539.2939.67-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0566.6767.440.020.02
LSUSEC0.030.0559.2657.890.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0570.3768.500.030.02
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0551.8550.300.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0574.0773.360.010.03
Texas St.SB0.060.0544.4444.14-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.060.0566.6765.680.020.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0522.2226.38-0.03-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0553.5752.290.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0510.7111.67-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.060.0576.6776.040.030.03
TexasB120.060.0557.1455.790.010.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0589.2988.330.040.04
AmericanPat0.030.0321.4321.09-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.030.0382.1481.840.020.02
IllinoisB100.030.0341.3841.80-0.01-0.00
LehighPat0.030.0351.8552.680.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0364.2962.260.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0370.3768.820.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0337.0441.25-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0339.2938.73-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0344.4444.34-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0353.8551.280.000.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0321.4322.44-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0369.2369.120.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0353.8556.450.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0339.2938.70-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0346.4346.73-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0350.0048.570.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0362.5062.960.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.8667.660.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0374.0774.070.020.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0362.0761.600.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0378.5779.070.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0355.5654.540.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0374.0773.100.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0366.6766.220.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0337.9338.42-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0373.0874.450.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0337.0437.28-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0342.3141.86-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0367.8665.790.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0366.6765.660.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.8554.790.000.00
George MasonA100.030.0346.4346.32-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0369.2369.060.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0339.2938.91-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.7160.640.010.01
La SalleA100.000.0339.2940.360.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0359.2658.950.010.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0342.8642.01-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0362.9661.410.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0342.3142.44-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0381.4881.170.020.02
RichmondA100.030.0333.3335.14-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0372.4171.950.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0376.9276.270.020.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0377.7876.060.020.01
TempleAmer0.030.0355.5655.550.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0357.1456.700.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0327.2732.13-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.030.0381.4879.510.020.02