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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Saint Mary's

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:17.0
Current RPI:17
Expected SOS:75
Current SOS:75
Current Record:28-4
Expected Record:28-4
Current Conf Record:18-3
Expected Conf Record:18-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-0
Current OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC RPI:21
Expected OOC SOS:66



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-417.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Saint Mary's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Nevada (29.0)MWCH81-63W100%0.0
11-16Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACH110-72W100%0.0
11-19Dayton (30.0)A10A57-61W100%0.0
11-22San Jose St. (191.0)MWCH81-64W100%0.0
11-27UAB (201.0)CUSAN76-63W100%0.0
11-30Stanford (100.0)P12A51-66W100%0.0
12-8UT Arlington (45.0)SBH51-65L0%0.0
12-11UC Irvine (135.0)BWH84-53W100%0.0
12-14Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAH73-51W100%0.0
12-20Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.0)SlndH67-46W100%0.0
12-22South Carolina St. (299.0)MEACH74-47W100%0.0
12-29Loyola Marymount (153.0)WCCA60-72W100%0.0
12-31San Diego (205.0)WCCH72-60W100%0.0
1-5BYU (65.0)WCCH81-68W100%0.0
1-7San Francisco (94.0)WCCA52-63W100%0.0
1-12Portland (233.0)WCCA33-74W100%0.0
1-14Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA79-56L0%0.0
1-19Pacific (223.0)WCCH62-50W100%0.0
1-21Pepperdine (245.0)WCCH85-65W100%0.0
1-26San Francisco (94.0)WCCH66-46W100%0.0
1-28Santa Clara (126.0)WCCA59-72W100%0.0
2-2Pacific (223.0)WCCA70-74W100%0.0
2-4San Diego (205.0)WCCA27-71W100%0.0
2-9Portland (233.0)WCCH51-41W100%0.0
2-11Gonzaga (8.0)WCCH64-74L0%0.0
2-16Loyola Marymount (153.0)WCCH81-48W100%0.0
2-18BYU (65.0)WCCA57-70W100%0.0
2-23Pepperdine (245.0)WCCA49-78W100%0.0
2-25Santa Clara (126.0)WCCH70-56W100%0.0
3-4Portland (233.0)WCCN81-58W100%0.0
3-6BYU (65.0)WCCN81-50W100%0.0
3-7Gonzaga (8.0)WCCN74-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Saint Mary's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Saint Mary's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Saint Mary's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Saint Mary'sWCC26.5526.5585.5385.5318.8618.86
GonzagaWCC5.695.6996.6796.675.315.31
PortlandWCC5.695.6932.1432.14-2.03-2.03
BYUWCC5.655.6573.3373.332.642.64
Santa ClaraWCC4.254.2553.3353.330.280.28
PacificWCC4.244.2433.3333.33-1.41-1.41
Loyola MarymountWCC4.184.1851.8551.850.150.15
San DiegoWCC4.144.1442.8642.86-0.59-0.59
San FranciscoWCC4.124.1265.5265.521.281.28
PepperdineWCC4.124.1228.5728.57-1.76-1.76
NevadaMWC1.741.7484.8584.851.221.22
San Jose St.MWC1.731.7344.4444.44-0.19-0.19
UC IrvineBW1.681.6859.3859.380.320.32
DaytonA101.641.6479.3179.310.960.96
UT ArlingtonSB1.621.6273.3373.330.750.75
UABCUSA1.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
Western KentuckyCUSA1.611.6148.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.561.5636.6736.67-0.42-0.42
South Carolina St.MEAC1.561.5632.1432.14-0.56-0.56
StanfordP121.561.5644.8344.83-0.16-0.16
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.561.5662.9662.960.410.41
San Diego St.MWC0.280.2856.2556.250.030.03
Portland St.BSky0.230.2342.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.220.2251.7251.720.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.220.2243.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.200.2035.7135.71-0.06-0.06
UCLAP120.200.2087.8887.880.150.15
USCP120.200.2072.7372.730.090.09
Fresno St.MWC0.200.2060.0060.000.040.04
ColoradoP120.200.2056.2556.250.020.02
ArizonaP120.200.2088.2488.240.150.15
UC RiversideBW0.200.2022.2222.22-0.11-0.11
Colorado St.MWC0.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
Oregon St.P120.180.1812.9012.90-0.13-0.13
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.170.1718.5218.52-0.11-0.11
Boise St.MWC0.160.1662.0762.070.040.04
Weber St.BSky0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
WashingtonP120.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Texas St.SB0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
UtahP120.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
WyomingMWC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
UTSACUSA0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.130.1321.4321.43-0.07-0.07
TroySB0.130.1358.8258.820.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1221.8821.88-0.07-0.07
UC DavisBW0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.110.1132.0032.00-0.04-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.1136.0036.00-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Washington St.P120.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.103.333.33-0.09-0.09
New MexicoMWC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
AkronMAC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
CaliforniaP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
MassachusettsA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.076.906.90-0.06-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
FloridaSEC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
IllinoisB100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0619.2319.23-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
VMISC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0229.4129.41-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00