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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Saint Louis

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:176.5
Current RPI:151
Expected SOS:104
Current SOS:76
Current Record:9-10
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-3
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:175
Expected OOC SOS:71



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1188.70.10%
18-12104.51.17%
17-13123.04.54%
16-14142.512.24%
15-15161.120.54%
14-16179.425.82%
13-17195.820.21%
12-18211.710.95%
11-19224.93.76%
10-20237.50.59%
9-21251.30.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Saint Louis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Seattle (199.6)WACH62-46W100%0.0
11-16Virginia Tech (82.6)ACCN77-71W100%0.0
11-17Providence (44.5)BEN90-63L0%0.0
11-22Detroit (297.3)HorzH70-72L0%0.0
11-28Western Michigan (163.8)MACH51-65L0%0.0
12-2Butler (37.4)BEA75-45L0%0.0
12-6Southern Illinois (125.7)MVCH74-69W100%0.0
12-9Houston (42.5)AmerH58-77L0%0.0
12-12Murray St. (87.3)OVCH69-55W100%0.0
12-16Oregon St. (145.6)P12A63-60L0%0.0
12-19Campbell (266.4)BSthH74-66W100%0.0
12-22Southeast Missouri St. (243.3)OVCH78-48W100%0.0
12-30La Salle (182.0)A10A83-60L0%0.0
1-3Davidson (81.5)A10A54-51L0%0.0
1-6Richmond (201.6)A10H69-62W100%0.0
1-9Rhode Island (14.4)A10H65-72L0%0.0
1-13George Mason (224.7)A10A86-81L0%0.0
1-17Duquesne (212.1)A10H76-63W100%0.0
1-20Massachusetts (199.1)A10A47-66W100%0.0
1-23VCU (127.7)A10H0-048%-0.6
1-27Dayton (111.9)A10H0-050%0.1
1-31Saint Joseph's (150.4)A10A0-030%-5.9
2-3Fordham (280.1)A10H0-082%10.2
2-7St. Bonaventure (49.7)A10A0-016%-10.8
2-10La Salle (182.0)A10H0-059%2.4
2-17Richmond (201.6)A10A0-045%-1.4
2-20Dayton (111.9)A10A0-028%-6.3
2-24George Washington (200.4)A10H0-070%5.8
2-28Duquesne (212.1)A10A0-045%-1.5
3-3St. Bonaventure (49.7)A10H0-034%-4.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Saint Louis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Saint Louis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Saint Louis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Saint LouisA1026.3226.1140.7441.88-4.87-4.24
DuquesneA102.833.9773.6860.191.340.81
St. BonaventureA100.223.9166.6768.310.071.43
DaytonA100.273.9147.3750.25-0.010.02
La SalleA102.913.8936.8440.76-0.76-0.72
RichmondA102.773.8833.3334.85-0.92-1.18
Rhode IslandA102.892.3882.3580.771.871.46
MassachusettsA102.902.3552.6348.370.15-0.08
DavidsonA102.772.3356.2560.080.350.47
VCUA100.202.3360.0059.940.040.46
George WashingtonA100.352.3345.0043.93-0.04-0.28
FordhamA100.282.3231.5829.44-0.10-0.96
Saint Joseph'sA100.132.3250.0051.000.000.05
George MasonA102.912.3042.1139.35-0.46-0.49
ProvidenceBE2.901.8068.4259.151.070.33
DetroitHorz2.921.7816.6723.32-1.95-0.95
Murray St.OVC2.841.7875.0078.871.421.03
Southern IllinoisMVC2.841.7857.8954.280.450.15
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.771.7644.4445.06-0.31-0.17
ButlerBE2.701.7265.0061.840.810.41
SeattleWAC2.701.7061.1156.520.600.22
Virginia TechACC2.701.7072.2259.661.200.33
Western MichiganMAC2.701.7050.0050.530.000.02
HoustonAmer2.701.6977.7872.061.500.75
CampbellBSth2.631.6750.0049.230.00-0.03
Oregon St.P122.631.6755.5649.150.29-0.03
VillanovaBE0.130.1994.7490.310.110.15
Jacksonville St.OVC0.220.1770.0068.220.090.06
BucknellPat0.140.1661.9068.020.030.06
TempleAmer0.140.1652.6351.740.010.01
Seton HallBE0.140.1675.0067.890.070.06
St. John'sBE0.140.1647.3742.16-0.01-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.200.1665.0054.670.060.02
GeorgetownBE0.130.1668.4254.070.050.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.210.1536.8432.76-0.06-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.1557.8953.190.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.200.1423.5328.69-0.11-0.06
WashingtonP120.200.1470.0061.440.080.03
VirginiaACC0.220.1494.7486.140.200.10
Old DominionCUSA0.070.1478.9576.750.040.07
PennIvy0.070.1464.7162.720.020.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1415.7920.91-0.09-0.08
MarquetteBE0.130.1368.4260.550.050.03
Miami FLACC0.070.1377.7870.480.040.06
XavierBE0.130.1385.7180.080.090.08
Austin PeayOVC0.070.1244.4446.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.150.1229.4133.93-0.06-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.1226.3231.50-0.04-0.04
WinthropBSth0.140.1250.0059.450.000.02
BelmontOVC0.280.1271.4374.660.120.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1231.5832.72-0.05-0.04
ToledoMAC0.150.1166.6767.700.050.04
AuburnSEC0.140.1189.4777.000.110.06
Washington St.P120.070.1147.3741.44-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.150.1147.0644.91-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.1161.1158.700.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.1172.2274.930.030.06
CincinnatiAmer0.070.1189.4785.550.050.08
VermontAE0.070.1175.0077.850.030.06
Wake ForestACC0.210.1142.1140.46-0.03-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.200.1126.3230.49-0.10-0.04
VMISC0.140.1125.0024.15-0.07-0.06
HarvardIvy0.070.1137.5046.69-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.200.1178.9569.790.120.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.200.1155.5656.740.020.01
CreightonBE0.190.1175.0070.700.100.04
DePaulBE0.130.1142.1134.31-0.02-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.0925.0031.45-0.08-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.150.0952.6358.590.010.02
LibertyBSth0.070.0950.0054.190.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.150.0927.7827.10-0.07-0.04
RadfordBSth0.150.0957.8958.850.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.150.0968.4269.250.050.03
Chicago St.WAC0.150.090.003.07-0.15-0.08
New Mexico St.WAC0.150.0983.3384.240.100.06
UMKCWAC0.140.0921.0524.75-0.08-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.150.0942.1132.47-0.02-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.140.0947.3746.09-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.150.0920.0023.34-0.09-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.150.0945.0047.07-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.150.0961.9065.160.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0990.4888.960.060.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0942.1146.000.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0947.0641.41-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.220.0985.7182.090.150.05
Penn St.B100.140.0861.9055.760.030.01
StetsonASun0.140.0833.3336.93-0.05-0.02
CaliforniaP120.070.0836.8431.12-0.02-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.150.0833.3337.23-0.05-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.200.0843.7554.11-0.030.01
South CarolinaSEC0.220.0861.1151.910.050.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.0821.0523.51-0.08-0.04
BradleyMVC0.140.0865.0057.880.040.01
EvansvilleMVC0.140.0852.6347.520.01-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0847.0648.410.00-0.00
UCLAP120.140.0865.0062.050.040.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0838.8943.43-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.070.0863.1657.890.020.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.200.085.8819.35-0.18-0.05
Georgia St.SB0.070.0866.6765.520.020.03
James MadisonCAA0.140.0825.0028.24-0.07-0.04
MaineAE0.070.0810.5314.83-0.05-0.06
MarylandB100.060.0870.0065.250.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0857.1453.050.010.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0868.4261.230.030.02
DrexelCAA0.140.0830.0030.99-0.05-0.03
LamarSlnd0.130.0850.0054.890.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0852.9460.220.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0833.3335.21-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.070.0873.6869.640.030.03
PittsburghACC0.140.0840.0030.87-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0638.8940.78-0.02-0.01
High PointBSth0.080.0643.7549.23-0.01-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.080.0616.6716.16-0.05-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0658.8249.760.01-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.0635.2940.48-0.04-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.0622.2227.33-0.09-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0629.4133.200.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0670.0071.230.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0645.0045.03-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6766.020.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0610.0019.63-0.06-0.04
MaristMAAC0.150.0621.0522.02-0.08-0.03
The CitadelSC0.150.0618.7518.36-0.09-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0662.5058.690.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0646.6746.970.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.070.0625.0027.94-0.03-0.03
IUPUIHorz0.070.0627.7829.83-0.03-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0641.1839.160.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0666.6773.210.020.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0636.8444.11-0.02-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.0616.6724.91-0.09-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0677.7879.150.040.03
Kent St.MAC0.150.0644.4444.92-0.02-0.01
TulsaAmer0.150.0655.0053.320.010.00
BrownIvy0.140.0650.0045.140.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.0617.6519.30-0.09-0.03
Kansas St.B120.070.0673.6862.720.030.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.140.0652.6355.290.010.01
MichiganB100.070.0676.1970.740.040.02
North CarolinaACC0.080.0680.0075.060.050.03
ArizonaP120.070.0680.0078.940.040.03
Arizona St.P120.070.0678.9576.130.040.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0661.9063.140.000.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0647.3743.02-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0655.0048.980.01-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.8959.490.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0644.4446.020.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.140.0640.0043.35-0.03-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0683.3381.370.050.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0678.9574.190.040.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0672.2258.920.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0670.0068.300.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0663.1663.220.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.130.0644.4450.08-0.010.00
OregonP120.070.0665.0063.850.020.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0628.5729.940.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0070.570.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.070.0635.0026.12-0.02-0.03
TCUB120.000.0673.6865.600.000.02
UABCUSA0.070.0661.1164.130.020.02
USCP120.070.0671.4368.280.030.02
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0647.3748.77-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0664.7164.570.000.02
Wichita St.Amer0.140.0678.9577.380.080.03
YaleIvy0.000.0641.1847.560.00-0.00
UtahP120.130.0563.1659.710.030.01
CornellIvy0.070.0533.3333.23-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.050.009.09-0.07-0.04
DukeACC0.000.0589.4785.210.000.04
MercerSC0.070.0544.4454.86-0.010.01
MinnesotaB100.130.0563.6457.630.040.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.050.0010.67-0.07-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0529.4139.63-0.03-0.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0555.0050.330.010.00
RiderMAAC0.070.0565.0065.320.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0557.1460.410.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0542.1146.09-0.01-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0550.0048.730.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.070.0550.0045.870.00-0.00
TexasB120.060.0563.1657.630.020.01
TowsonCAA0.070.0563.1665.970.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0352.9452.650.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0372.2274.710.030.02
USC UpstateASun0.080.0311.1118.00-0.06-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0338.8946.05-0.02-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0343.7540.93-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0350.0051.380.000.00
PortlandWCC0.070.0327.7827.28-0.03-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0317.6523.86-0.04-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0368.4258.980.030.01
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0323.5325.64-0.04-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0366.6765.640.020.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0357.8966.260.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.070.0352.6351.690.000.00
HawaiiBW0.080.0368.7563.990.030.01
IdahoBSky0.080.0364.7166.850.020.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0360.0064.110.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0350.0047.660.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.070.0368.4264.200.030.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0330.0036.50-0.03-0.01
ColoradoP120.070.0360.0053.720.010.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0338.8944.08-0.02-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.037.6920.09-0.06-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0340.0042.520.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0327.7829.10-0.03-0.01
LSUSEC0.070.0361.1153.170.020.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0350.0050.860.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0328.5731.26-0.03-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0365.0058.540.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0337.5045.24-0.02-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0321.0539.48-0.04-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0355.0046.690.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0316.6724.450.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0311.7612.81-0.05-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0337.5033.78-0.02-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0355.0050.370.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0368.4260.860.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0384.2178.170.000.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0361.1156.830.020.00
BinghamtonAE0.070.0342.1139.94-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.070.0380.9576.240.040.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0384.2173.240.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0366.6763.420.020.01
FurmanSC0.060.0366.6768.540.020.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0366.6755.940.020.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0366.6765.370.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0352.6343.110.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0320.0041.730.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0310.5327.290.00-0.01
IowaB100.070.0347.6244.02-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.070.0373.6867.970.030.01
LafayettePat0.070.0322.2227.47-0.04-0.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0333.3340.080.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0365.0056.340.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0331.5835.150.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0363.1661.020.000.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0380.9576.520.040.01
Portland St.BSky0.060.0358.8263.210.010.01
PurdueB100.060.0390.4888.370.050.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0335.0031.83-0.02-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0330.0033.47-0.03-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.070.0336.8445.21-0.02-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.070.0333.3333.87-0.02-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0338.8935.37-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0342.8635.24-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0364.7159.990.020.01