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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Saint Louis

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:238.0
Current RPI:238
Expected SOS:132
Current SOS:132
Current Record:12-21
Expected Record:12-21
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:299
Expected OOC SOS:266



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-21238.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Saint Louis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Ball St. (169.0)MACH64-85L0%0.0
11-14Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyH88-76W100%0.0
11-17Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCH74-69W100%0.0
11-21BYU (65.0)WCCN92-62L0%0.0
11-23Alabama (78.0)SECN62-57L0%0.0
11-29Samford (170.0)SCH64-68L0%0.0
12-3Kansas St. (57.0)B12H53-84L0%0.0
12-6Wichita St. (32.0)MVCA75-45L0%0.0
12-11Chicago St. (318.0)WACH45-43W100%0.0
12-14Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCA70-55L0%0.0
12-17SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCH72-58W100%0.0
12-22Winthrop (70.0)BSthH55-66L0%0.0
12-30Rhode Island (31.0)A10H56-90L0%0.0
1-4La Salle (133.0)A10A75-54L0%0.0
1-8Davidson (93.0)A10H66-77L0%0.0
1-11Duquesne (267.0)A10A73-66L0%0.0
1-14George Mason (103.0)A10A56-63W100%0.0
1-17St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10H52-71L0%0.0
1-22Dayton (30.0)A10A67-46L0%0.0
1-25Massachusetts (195.0)A10H74-70W100%0.0
1-28George Washington (102.0)A10A63-55L0%0.0
2-1George Mason (103.0)A10H76-74W100%0.0
2-4North Carolina A&T (350.0)MEACH78-59W100%0.0
2-8St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10A70-55L0%0.0
2-11Duquesne (267.0)A10H87-81W100%0.0
2-14Dayton (30.0)A10H63-85L0%0.0
2-18Fordham (215.0)A10A54-40L0%0.0
2-22VCU (22.0)A10A64-50L0%0.0
2-25Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10H61-60W100%0.0
3-1La Salle (133.0)A10H70-55W100%0.0
3-4Richmond (80.0)A10A72-62L0%0.0
3-8Duquesne (267.0)A10A71-72W100%0.0
3-9George Washington (102.0)A10N53-46L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Saint Louis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Saint Louis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Saint Louis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Saint LouisA1026.1826.1830.3430.34-10.29-10.29
DuquesneA105.125.1231.0331.03-1.94-1.94
DaytonA103.693.6975.0075.001.851.85
St. BonaventureA103.673.6760.0060.000.730.73
George WashingtonA103.673.6754.8454.840.360.36
George MasonA103.623.6263.3363.330.970.97
La SalleA103.583.5850.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA102.262.2646.8846.88-0.14-0.14
VCUA102.262.2675.7675.761.161.16
Rhode IslandA102.232.2371.8871.880.980.98
DavidsonA102.232.2351.6151.610.070.07
FordhamA102.212.2136.6736.67-0.59-0.59
RichmondA102.202.2061.2961.290.500.50
Saint Joseph'sA102.162.1636.6736.67-0.58-0.58
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.591.5918.5218.52-1.00-1.00
AlabamaSEC1.591.5956.2556.250.200.20
Southern IllinoisMVC1.591.5948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.571.5746.1546.15-0.12-0.12
WinthropBSth1.571.5779.3179.310.920.92
Ball St.MAC1.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
Wichita St.MVC1.561.5687.5087.501.171.17
Southern UtahBSky1.541.5413.3313.33-1.13-1.13
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.541.543.453.45-1.43-1.43
BYUWCC1.521.5265.6265.620.470.47
Chicago St.WAC1.521.5210.7110.71-1.19-1.19
Kansas St.B121.521.5259.3859.380.280.28
SamfordSC1.521.5251.6151.610.050.05
BradleyMVC0.240.2437.5037.50-0.06-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.200.2061.2961.290.050.05
MercerSC0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.160.1681.2581.250.100.10
Penn St.B100.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.1578.1278.120.080.08
VMISC0.150.1514.2914.29-0.10-0.10
Indiana St.MVC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.120.1214.2914.29-0.09-0.09
Central MichiganMAC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
HowardMEAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
CanisiusMAAC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.120.1285.2985.290.080.08
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1123.0823.08-0.06-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
CampbellBSth0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
MissouriSEC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
BuffaloMAC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
PacificWCC0.090.0931.2531.25-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.090.0961.5461.540.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
SienaMAAC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
LSUSEC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
TroySB0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
SeattleWAC0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
BucknellPat0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
RiderMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
HoustonAmer0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
KansasB120.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
San DiegoWCC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
OklahomaB120.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
TexasB120.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
StetsonASun0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.040.04
Holy CrossPat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
BrownIvy0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0277.1477.140.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
OregonP120.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
TulsaAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
USCP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02