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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


Saint Louis

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:256.8
Current RPI:243
Expected SOS:118
Current SOS:111
Current Record:9-19
Expected Record:10-21
Current Conf Record:4-11
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:305
Expected OOC SOS:275



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19225.90.56%
11-20239.79.85%
10-21251.540.88%
9-22265.148.70%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Saint Louis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Ball St. (184.8)MACH64-85L0%0.0
11-14Southern Utah (342.0)BSkyH88-76W100%0.0
11-17Eastern Illinois (257.5)OVCH74-69W100%0.0
11-21BYU (81.5)WCCN92-62L0%0.0
11-23Alabama (77.2)SECN62-57L0%0.0
11-29Samford (159.5)SCH64-68L0%0.0
12-3Kansas St. (66.7)B12H53-84L0%0.0
12-6Wichita St. (38.2)MVCA75-45L0%0.0
12-11Chicago St. (314.1)WACH45-43W100%0.0
12-14Southern Illinois (163.9)MVCA70-55L0%0.0
12-17SIU Edwardsville (336.0)OVCH72-58W100%0.0
12-22Winthrop (82.1)BSthH55-66L0%0.0
12-30Rhode Island (46.0)A10H56-90L0%0.0
1-4La Salle (108.2)A10A75-54L0%0.0
1-8Davidson (108.6)A10H66-77L0%0.0
1-11Duquesne (244.7)A10A73-66L0%0.0
1-14George Mason (108.6)A10A56-63W100%0.0
1-17St. Bonaventure (93.3)A10H52-71L0%0.0
1-22Dayton (23.6)A10A67-46L0%0.0
1-25Massachusetts (177.7)A10H74-70W100%0.0
1-28George Washington (137.8)A10A63-55L0%0.0
2-1George Mason (108.6)A10H76-74W100%0.0
2-4North Carolina A&T (350.3)MEACH78-59W100%0.0
2-8St. Bonaventure (93.3)A10A70-55L0%0.0
2-11Duquesne (244.7)A10H87-81W100%0.0
2-14Dayton (23.6)A10H63-85L0%0.0
2-18Fordham (191.2)A10A54-40L0%0.0
2-22VCU (22.5)A10A64-50L0%0.0
2-25Saint Joseph's (170.3)A10H0-029%-6.0
3-1La Salle (108.2)A10H0-025%-7.3
3-4Richmond (100.4)A10A0-08%-15.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Saint Louis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Saint Louis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Saint Louis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Saint LouisA1026.2026.1225.0023.84-13.10-13.67
DaytonA104.173.8779.1777.912.432.16
DuquesneA104.073.8234.6233.51-1.25-1.26
St. BonaventureA104.043.8260.0060.770.810.82
George MasonA103.973.7668.0065.861.431.19
La SalleA102.283.7652.0052.390.090.18
MassachusettsA102.352.3250.0049.160.00-0.04
Rhode IslandA102.352.2665.3865.640.720.71
VCUA102.292.2681.4878.691.441.30
FordhamA102.322.2642.3142.09-0.36-0.36
Saint Joseph'sA100.602.2637.0437.45-0.16-0.57
George WashingtonA102.252.2650.0049.590.00-0.02
RichmondA100.632.2359.2658.830.120.39
DavidsonA102.212.2052.0050.900.090.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.851.7015.3816.00-1.28-1.16
Southern IllinoisMVC1.881.7046.4346.38-0.13-0.12
AlabamaSEC1.891.7060.0058.370.380.28
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.821.6748.0048.77-0.07-0.04
WinthropBSth1.851.6775.0076.480.930.88
Ball St.MAC1.861.6761.5460.000.430.33
Wichita St.MVC1.851.6785.7185.861.321.20
Southern UtahBSky1.821.6412.5013.83-1.36-1.19
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.821.640.003.50-1.82-1.52
BYUWCC1.791.6164.2962.950.510.42
Chicago St.WAC1.791.6112.5012.24-1.34-1.22
Kansas St.B121.791.6159.2658.550.330.28
SamfordSC1.791.6153.8554.740.140.15
BradleyMVC0.290.2534.4834.78-0.09-0.08
Tennessee MartinOVC0.230.2059.2659.740.040.04
MercerSC0.170.1940.7440.78-0.03-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.200.1730.7730.10-0.08-0.07
Indiana St.MVC0.190.1635.7135.66-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.200.1678.5777.380.120.09
Northern IowaMVC0.190.1648.1547.59-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.170.1540.7442.17-0.03-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.170.1446.1546.49-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.170.1416.0016.19-0.12-0.09
East Tennessee St.SC0.170.1477.7877.990.090.08
VMISC0.130.1416.0016.75-0.09-0.09
Central MichiganMAC0.170.1453.8551.910.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1451.7250.330.000.00
PennIvy0.100.1447.8350.32-0.000.00
TempleAmer0.100.1348.2850.61-0.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.120.1382.1481.630.080.09
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.1357.1457.070.010.02
Penn St.B100.160.1350.0048.740.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1126.0925.92-0.07-0.06
MissouriSEC0.140.1125.9325.77-0.07-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.100.1141.6743.49-0.02-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1130.7733.71-0.05-0.04
HowardMEAC0.130.1119.2321.44-0.08-0.06
PortlandWCC0.100.1129.6329.44-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1188.8989.350.100.08
BuffaloMAC0.130.1150.0050.440.000.00
DrakeMVC0.120.1122.2223.45-0.07-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1142.8643.65-0.02-0.01
LSUSEC0.130.1133.3331.80-0.04-0.04
PacificWCC0.130.1132.1432.21-0.05-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1158.6258.690.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.130.1129.6328.42-0.05-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1142.3143.88-0.02-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1037.9339.64-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.100.0953.8552.820.010.00
CampbellBSth0.100.0940.0040.08-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0929.1729.85-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.0951.8551.270.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0965.3865.420.020.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.0950.0049.670.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.100.0957.6957.630.020.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.0974.0773.870.050.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0929.6331.16-0.04-0.03
BelmontOVC0.100.0980.0079.920.060.05
FurmanSC0.100.0964.2964.510.030.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.0983.3384.080.070.06
SeattleWAC0.110.0939.1337.81-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.100.0871.4368.340.040.03
Florida St.ACC0.100.0878.5776.210.060.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0869.5771.400.030.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.0834.7836.63-0.03-0.02
IUPUISum0.100.0838.4639.08-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.0869.2368.790.040.03
BucknellPat0.030.0873.3373.730.020.04
DrexelCAA0.030.0828.5729.06-0.01-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0859.2662.730.010.02
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0853.5751.920.010.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0889.6688.760.030.06
IllinoisB100.100.0855.5655.020.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.0846.1547.50-0.01-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0825.9326.05-0.05-0.04
RiderMAAC0.100.0853.3353.310.010.01
FloridaSEC0.100.0882.1480.600.060.05
HoustonAmer0.100.0870.3769.130.040.03
James MadisonCAA0.070.0825.0026.38-0.03-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.100.0855.5655.100.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.0851.7253.710.000.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0848.1549.49-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.100.0889.2987.840.080.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.0846.1546.35-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.090.0840.7440.12-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0853.8554.930.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0860.7159.870.010.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0861.5462.870.010.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.0830.7734.71-0.04-0.02
SienaMAAC0.100.0848.2848.54-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.0818.5220.01-0.06-0.05
HarvardIvy0.100.0866.6765.300.030.02
KentuckySEC0.100.0882.1481.760.060.05
OklahomaB120.060.0833.3333.59-0.02-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0866.6765.160.030.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0872.7374.040.030.04
TexasB120.100.0835.7134.84-0.03-0.02
Texas TechB120.030.0860.7159.310.010.01
UMBCAE0.060.0861.5460.470.010.02
BaylorB120.100.0881.4878.550.060.04
High PointBSth0.070.0644.0045.26-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0612.0011.56-0.03-0.05
RadfordBSth0.070.0638.4640.55-0.02-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0644.4443.17-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0644.0046.00-0.01-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0657.6956.380.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0637.0436.81-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.070.0644.0042.77-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.040.0648.0046.99-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0628.0028.37-0.03-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0633.3332.68-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0675.0074.370.040.03
OaklandHorz0.070.0674.0773.500.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0669.2368.600.030.02
StetsonASun0.070.0629.6328.76-0.03-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0620.0022.21-0.02-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0665.3866.650.020.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0637.0435.10-0.01-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0625.9327.44-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.040.0664.0065.600.010.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0620.0020.88-0.04-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0673.0873.880.020.03
GeorgetownBE0.030.0650.0049.130.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.040.0647.8350.77-0.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0650.0049.370.00-0.00
LehighPat0.030.0659.2660.160.010.01
NebraskaB100.070.0644.0042.70-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0657.1456.440.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0675.0077.120.020.03
North DakotaBSky0.070.0663.6464.970.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0623.0823.14-0.04-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0629.1731.48-0.03-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.040.0640.9144.15-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0634.7836.95-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0623.0822.08-0.02-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0622.2222.75-0.04-0.03
WoffordSC0.070.0644.4443.90-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0557.6958.300.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0588.8987.450.050.04
ClemsonACC0.070.0551.8553.680.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0528.0029.86-0.03-0.02
UNLVMWC0.070.0535.7134.80-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.070.0555.5652.750.010.00
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0516.0016.87-0.05-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0540.7440.75-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0560.8760.770.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0575.0071.920.030.02
ArmyPat0.070.0539.2938.46-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0560.7159.670.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0540.7440.19-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0537.5039.90-0.02-0.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0542.8642.57-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.070.0544.0043.41-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0578.5778.520.040.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0551.8550.690.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0531.0331.60-0.03-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0548.0047.41-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.070.0564.2961.960.020.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0581.4881.510.040.03
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0542.3143.63-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0532.1430.40-0.01-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0565.3864.150.020.01
Holy CrossPat0.070.0550.0050.080.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0577.7876.990.020.03
ProvidenceBE0.070.0560.7160.840.010.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0542.8642.05-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0551.8552.250.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0525.0026.71-0.03-0.02
ColgatePat0.060.0531.0332.74-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.030.05100.0099.810.030.05
Iowa St.B120.060.0566.6764.750.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0537.5042.38-0.02-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0548.1549.03-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.060.0553.5750.750.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0564.2964.460.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0550.0049.560.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0559.2657.620.010.01
UCFAmer0.070.0564.2963.820.020.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0578.5777.800.040.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.040.0357.6955.370.010.00
New HampshireAE0.040.0357.6958.050.010.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0362.9662.600.010.01
DePaulBE0.040.0332.1430.89-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0330.4331.13-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0348.0047.45-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0353.5752.940.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0362.9661.410.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0354.1753.210.000.00
WisconsinB100.040.0381.4880.840.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0027.77-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.4344.09-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.040.0350.0049.820.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.6742.37-0.01-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0371.4372.700.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0346.4343.89-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0337.5040.16-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0330.0029.22-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.040.0350.0050.340.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.040.0346.1546.03-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.0045.06-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0334.7833.41-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0346.1546.92-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.1480.660.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0365.3864.780.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0350.0046.860.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0333.3334.37-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0348.1547.60-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.030.0377.7876.390.020.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0328.0028.91-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0337.5037.60-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0340.9140.59-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0326.0925.97-0.02-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0378.5776.170.020.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0338.4638.56-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.0325.9325.63-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0355.5655.680.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.7442.89-0.01-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0324.1424.50-0.02-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.7729.92-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0359.2657.930.010.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0375.0073.470.020.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0351.7249.530.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0330.7732.11-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0368.0068.550.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0321.4321.43-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.030.0385.7185.930.020.02
RutgersB100.030.0342.8642.33-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0344.8343.96-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0357.1457.270.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0358.3359.220.010.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0370.3770.540.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0342.8643.32-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0351.8551.660.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.1547.81-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0350.0049.750.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0376.0076.570.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0357.1455.800.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0352.0053.050.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0362.9662.450.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0322.2224.27-0.02-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0333.3334.84-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0355.5655.660.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0059.400.010.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0320.0021.74-0.02-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0370.3767.240.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0385.1985.420.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0351.8551.810.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0326.9225.66-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0351.8553.220.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0377.7875.870.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0342.3143.98-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0352.0053.230.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0342.3139.94-0.00-0.01