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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Saint Joseph's

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:150.4
Current RPI:176
Expected SOS:131
Current SOS:147
Current Record:9-9
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:4-3
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-3
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:177
Expected OOC SOS:127



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-961.30.03%
20-1072.90.16%
19-1185.71.80%
18-12101.37.27%
17-13119.916.21%
16-14140.325.07%
15-15160.623.78%
14-16179.715.91%
13-17198.37.04%
12-18215.52.25%
11-19232.10.41%
10-20246.80.05%
9-21248.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Saint Joseph's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Toledo (70.4)MACA98-87L0%0.0
11-13Illinois Chicago (259.5)HorzA82-86W100%0.0
11-18Princeton (140.5)IvyH71-58W100%0.0
11-23Washington St. (171.2)P12N75-71L0%0.0
11-24Harvard (178.0)IvyN71-77L0%0.0
11-26Sacramento St. (279.5)BSkyN69-74W100%0.0
11-29Bucknell (85.1)PatH83-70W100%0.0
12-2Villanova (1.9)BEH53-94L0%0.0
12-9Temple (61.5)AmerA81-78L0%0.0
12-17Maine (331.6)AEH72-59W100%0.0
12-20St. John's (95.3)BEN77-73L0%0.0
12-30George Washington (200.4)A10A70-64L0%0.0
1-3VCU (127.7)A10H87-81W100%0.0
1-6St. Bonaventure (49.7)A10H85-78W100%0.0
1-10George Mason (224.7)A10A81-79L0%0.0
1-14Massachusetts (199.1)A10A72-69L0%0.0
1-17Dayton (111.9)A10H81-65W100%0.0
1-20Fordham (280.1)A10H68-46W100%0.0
1-24St. Bonaventure (49.7)A10A0-023%-8.2
1-27Penn (172.9)IvyA0-047%-0.8
1-31Saint Louis (176.5)A10H0-070%5.9
2-3La Salle (182.0)A10A0-045%-1.3
2-6Davidson (81.5)A10A0-024%-8.0
2-10Massachusetts (199.1)A10H0-075%7.3
2-14Fordham (280.1)A10A0-072%6.4
2-17Duquesne (212.1)A10H0-075%7.6
2-21George Mason (224.7)A10H0-082%10.3
2-24Richmond (201.6)A10A0-055%1.3
2-27Rhode Island (14.4)A10A0-013%-12.4
3-3La Salle (182.0)A10H0-068%5.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Saint Joseph's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Saint Joseph's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Saint Joseph's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Saint Joseph'sA1026.3326.1147.1452.01-1.501.05
La SalleA100.424.0540.0042.64-0.08-0.60
MassachusettsA103.164.0047.3745.71-0.17-0.34
FordhamA103.083.9733.3330.13-1.03-1.58
George MasonA102.923.9142.1140.09-0.46-0.77
St. BonaventureA102.993.8870.5970.891.231.62
George WashingtonA103.162.3842.1141.59-0.50-0.40
VCUA103.062.3563.1661.690.810.55
Rhode IslandA100.362.3583.3381.240.241.47
DuquesneA100.352.3370.0059.210.140.43
DavidsonA100.292.3358.8260.920.050.51
DaytonA102.992.3350.0052.700.000.13
Saint LouisA100.142.3247.3747.51-0.01-0.12
RichmondA100.352.3231.5833.98-0.13-0.74
PennIvy0.381.9564.7163.070.110.51
HarvardIvy2.991.9233.3344.72-1.00-0.20
VillanovaBE2.921.8394.4489.982.601.47
PrincetonIvy2.851.8156.2562.450.360.45
TempleAmer2.921.8050.0050.070.000.00
MaineAE2.921.7811.1115.36-2.27-1.23
BucknellPat2.851.7865.0070.280.850.72
St. John'sBE2.851.7244.4440.16-0.32-0.34
ToledoMAC2.781.7064.7166.590.820.56
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.781.6744.4447.65-0.31-0.08
Sacramento St.BSky2.781.6717.6525.33-1.80-0.82
Washington St.P122.781.6744.4439.42-0.31-0.35
DartmouthIvy0.320.2321.4326.35-0.18-0.11
ColumbiaIvy0.230.2320.0032.25-0.14-0.08
YaleIvy0.080.2341.1847.56-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.160.2333.3333.23-0.05-0.08
Holy CrossPat0.220.2226.3230.49-0.11-0.09
ProvidenceBE0.140.2270.0060.470.060.05
BrownIvy0.000.2150.0045.140.00-0.02
VermontAE0.300.2075.0077.850.150.11
LafayettePat0.290.1922.2227.47-0.16-0.09
ButlerBE0.150.1766.6763.070.050.04
GeorgetownBE0.290.1768.4254.070.110.01
Seton HallBE0.140.1675.0067.890.070.06
AkronMAC0.230.1447.0644.91-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.220.1442.1134.31-0.03-0.04
MarquetteBE0.140.1468.4260.550.050.03
XavierBE0.220.1485.7180.080.150.08
Saint Mary'sWCC0.310.1190.4888.960.250.09
DetroitHorz0.080.1121.0525.97-0.04-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.1141.1839.16-0.01-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.230.1150.0053.260.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.230.1163.1663.220.060.03
BinghamtonAE0.140.1142.1139.94-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.070.1133.3333.87-0.02-0.04
Oregon St.P120.070.1157.8950.840.010.00
TulaneAmer0.150.1163.1657.890.040.02
Miami FLACC0.150.1177.7870.480.080.05
Boston CollegeACC0.070.1165.0054.670.020.01
Old DominionCUSA0.220.1178.9576.750.120.06
Ball St.MAC0.140.1161.1158.700.030.02
AuburnSEC0.220.1189.4777.000.170.06
CreightonBE0.070.1175.0070.700.040.05
NiagaraMAAC0.150.1157.1453.050.020.01
MonmouthMAAC0.150.0927.7841.03-0.07-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.160.0950.0050.860.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.150.0920.0023.34-0.09-0.05
IdahoBSky0.150.0964.7166.850.040.03
Idaho St.BSky0.150.0943.7540.93-0.02-0.02
IUPUIHorz0.150.0927.7829.83-0.06-0.03
OaklandHorz0.150.0961.9065.160.040.03
Wright St.Horz0.150.0968.4269.250.060.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.080.009.09-0.07-0.07
New HampshireAE0.070.0833.3340.08-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.140.0836.8445.21-0.04-0.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0894.7486.140.060.06
BYUWCC0.150.0880.9576.240.090.04
LehighPat0.150.0838.8944.75-0.03-0.01
MinnesotaB100.160.0863.6457.630.040.01
BuffaloMAC0.150.0872.2274.930.070.04
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0889.4785.550.060.06
HoustonAmer0.070.0878.9572.990.040.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.0838.8943.43-0.03-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0847.0641.41-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.150.0847.0648.41-0.01-0.00
SyracuseACC0.150.0868.4261.230.060.02
UCFAmer0.150.0868.4260.860.050.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0852.9452.230.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.150.0817.6519.30-0.09-0.05
NavyPat0.000.0860.0055.160.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.0843.7554.11-0.020.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.140.0835.0031.83-0.04-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.070.0850.0045.870.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0863.1665.970.000.03
VMISC0.070.0825.0024.15-0.03-0.04
CaliforniaP120.140.0836.8431.12-0.04-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0852.6347.390.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.140.0873.6869.640.070.03
MarylandB100.140.0870.0065.250.060.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0815.7920.91-0.05-0.05
SienaMAAC0.140.0828.5729.94-0.06-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0833.3335.21-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.070.0830.0030.99-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.140.0866.6755.940.050.01
Georgia St.SB0.140.0866.6765.520.050.03
James MadisonCAA0.070.0825.0028.24-0.03-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.140.0861.1151.910.030.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.0829.4139.63-0.06-0.02
Penn St.B100.140.0861.9055.760.030.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.160.0656.2556.830.020.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0668.7563.990.030.02
KentuckySEC0.160.0673.6867.970.080.02
USCP120.150.0671.4368.280.070.02
AlbanyAE0.070.0671.4370.240.030.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0638.8946.05-0.02-0.00
Green BayHorz0.070.0625.0027.94-0.04-0.03
HartfordAE0.070.0650.0045.930.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0645.0047.07-0.01-0.00
MontanaBSky0.080.0670.5973.150.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.080.0650.0047.660.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0685.7182.090.000.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0666.6773.210.020.03
Portland St.BSky0.080.0658.8263.210.010.02
UMBCAE0.070.0655.5655.540.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0656.2557.400.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0621.0523.51-0.04-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.150.0652.3848.530.01-0.00
IonaMAAC0.070.0660.0064.110.010.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.150.0630.0033.47-0.06-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.150.0658.8262.820.030.01
UC DavisBW0.150.0658.8262.440.030.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0633.3337.23-0.02-0.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0610.5327.29-0.05-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.070.0680.0075.060.040.03
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0650.0048.730.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.070.0678.9576.130.040.03
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0661.9063.140.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0662.5058.690.020.01
ColoradoP120.070.0660.0053.720.010.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0677.7879.150.040.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0610.0019.63-0.06-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0640.0042.52-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.000.0665.0063.850.000.02
RutgersB100.070.0655.0046.690.01-0.00
SeattleWAC0.070.0657.8954.500.010.01
StanfordP120.070.0655.0050.370.010.00
TCUB120.080.0673.6865.600.040.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.0621.0544.26-0.09-0.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0655.0053.320.010.00
UtahP120.070.0663.1659.710.020.01
WashingtonP120.070.0670.0061.440.030.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0684.2178.170.050.03
Wichita St.Amer0.000.0678.9577.380.000.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0646.6746.970.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.150.0557.8959.490.020.01
Kansas St.B120.140.0573.6862.720.070.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0555.0052.470.000.00
AmericanPat0.070.0526.3228.11-0.03-0.02
ArmyPat0.070.0561.1160.440.010.01
ColgatePat0.070.0550.0051.030.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0566.6763.420.020.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0566.6765.370.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0552.6355.290.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0578.9569.790.040.02
Loyola MDPat0.070.0522.2228.66-0.04-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0544.4454.860.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0555.0050.330.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0542.1146.090.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0538.8935.37-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0564.7159.990.020.01
Cal PolyBW0.080.0323.5328.21-0.04-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0323.5332.57-0.04-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0372.2274.710.040.01
WoffordSC0.090.0368.7563.690.030.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0368.4258.980.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.080.0378.9576.990.040.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0325.0031.450.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0323.5325.640.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6765.640.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0345.0041.33-0.01-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0338.8944.080.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0357.8966.260.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.070.0352.6351.690.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0347.3746.09-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0378.9574.190.040.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0383.3384.240.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0329.4134.760.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0311.1115.290.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0358.8257.140.000.00
PortlandWCC0.080.0327.7827.28-0.03-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0337.5033.780.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.070.0378.9571.810.040.01
TroySB0.070.0335.2942.76-0.02-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0370.5969.630.030.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0321.0524.750.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0352.6358.590.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0322.2227.330.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0380.0078.940.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0350.0052.460.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0358.8249.760.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0347.0647.410.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.070.0384.2173.240.050.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0347.3743.020.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.0389.4785.210.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0342.1132.470.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0370.0071.230.030.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0370.0068.220.000.01
KansasB120.080.0384.2179.750.050.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0344.4444.92-0.01-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0383.3381.370.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.080.0368.4263.650.030.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0365.0058.540.020.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0372.2258.920.030.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0366.6763.200.020.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0370.5975.950.000.01
NebraskaB100.070.0366.6759.820.020.01
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0337.5045.24-0.02-0.00
SMUAmer0.070.0370.0070.570.030.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0335.0026.120.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0342.1143.510.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0357.8953.190.010.00
UABCUSA0.000.0361.1164.130.000.01
UCLAP120.070.0365.0062.050.020.01
UTEPCUSA0.070.0333.3334.10-0.02-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0368.4257.740.000.00
WagnerNEC0.070.0364.7164.570.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0342.1140.460.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.070.0350.0046.300.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.070.0368.4264.200.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0380.9583.260.050.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0336.8444.11-0.02-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.070.0320.0041.73-0.04-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0054.890.000.00
MichiganB100.070.0376.1970.740.040.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0010.670.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0350.0051.380.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0355.5656.740.000.00
North FloridaASun0.070.0331.5835.15-0.03-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0344.4450.08-0.010.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0340.0030.870.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0365.0065.320.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0357.1460.410.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3336.930.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0372.2268.930.030.01
TexasB120.070.0363.1657.630.020.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0368.4270.810.030.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0350.0059.450.000.01