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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Saint Joseph's

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:197.0
Current RPI:197
Expected SOS:89
Current SOS:89
Current Record:11-20
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:93
Expected OOC SOS:77



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-20197.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Saint Joseph's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Toledo (155.0)MACH77-76W100%0.0
11-14Columbia (262.0)IvyH85-65W100%0.0
11-18Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCN71-57W100%0.0
11-20Mississippi (77.0)SECN81-68L0%0.0
11-21North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCN73-63L0%0.0
11-30Temple (137.0)AmerH72-78L0%0.0
12-3Villanova (1.0)BEA88-57L0%0.0
12-11Drexel (308.0)CAAA71-72W100%0.0
12-14Princeton (47.0)IvyA68-76W100%0.0
12-18Illinois St. (33.0)MVCA81-72L0%0.0
12-22Lafayette (321.0)PatH92-63W100%0.0
12-30George Washington (102.0)A10H68-63W100%0.0
1-3Rhode Island (31.0)A10A88-58L0%0.0
1-7Fordham (215.0)A10A55-70W100%0.0
1-10George Mason (103.0)A10H67-75L0%0.0
1-14Richmond (80.0)A10H66-70L0%0.0
1-18Massachusetts (195.0)A10A62-57L0%0.0
1-21Penn (203.0)IvyN71-78W100%0.0
1-24St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10A67-63L0%0.0
1-28La Salle (133.0)A10H73-72W100%0.0
1-31Davidson (93.0)A10H60-75L0%0.0
2-4Fordham (215.0)A10H83-86L0%0.0
2-7Dayton (30.0)A10A77-70L0%0.0
2-11Massachusetts (195.0)A10H76-87L0%0.0
2-14VCU (22.0)A10A91-81L0%0.0
2-18La Salle (133.0)A10A83-68L0%0.0
2-22St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10H77-83L0%0.0
2-25Saint Louis (238.0)A10A61-60L0%0.0
3-1Rhode Island (31.0)A10H49-68L0%0.0
3-4Duquesne (267.0)A10A60-63W100%0.0
3-8Massachusetts (195.0)A10N70-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Saint Joseph's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Saint Joseph's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Saint Joseph's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Saint Joseph'sA1026.1526.1535.1035.10-7.79-7.79
MassachusettsA105.525.5240.0040.00-1.10-1.10
La SalleA103.983.9850.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA103.933.9370.9770.971.651.65
St. BonaventureA103.933.9360.0060.000.790.79
FordhamA103.813.8137.9337.93-0.92-0.92
DavidsonA102.372.3751.6151.610.080.08
George MasonA102.342.3458.0658.060.380.38
VCUA102.322.3275.7675.761.201.20
Saint LouisA102.302.3034.3834.38-0.72-0.72
DuquesneA102.272.2732.2632.26-0.81-0.81
George WashingtonA102.272.2759.3859.380.420.42
RichmondA102.272.2761.2961.290.510.51
DaytonA102.262.2675.8675.861.171.17
PennIvy1.941.9448.1548.15-0.07-0.07
TempleAmer1.821.8248.3948.39-0.06-0.06
PrincetonIvy1.811.8181.4881.481.141.14
VillanovaBE1.751.7590.9190.911.431.43
ColumbiaIvy1.731.7340.0040.00-0.35-0.35
DrexelCAA1.721.7226.6726.67-0.80-0.80
LafayettePat1.721.7228.5728.57-0.74-0.74
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.711.7155.1755.170.180.18
MississippiSEC1.691.6959.3859.380.320.32
Illinois St.MVC1.671.6780.6580.651.021.02
North Carolina St.ACC1.641.6445.1645.16-0.16-0.16
ToledoMAC1.641.6451.6151.610.050.05
HarvardIvy0.330.3361.5461.540.080.08
YaleIvy0.230.2360.7160.710.050.05
BrownIvy0.230.2339.2939.29-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.230.2325.9325.93-0.11-0.11
CornellIvy0.210.2125.0025.00-0.10-0.10
UCFAmer0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.180.1854.5554.550.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
BucknellPat0.160.1676.4776.470.090.09
EvansvilleMVC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.150.1587.8887.880.120.12
St. John'sBE0.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
ArmyPat0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
HofstraCAA0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.130.1328.1228.12-0.06-0.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
CreightonBE0.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
NavyPat0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Loyola MDPat0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
DelawareCAA0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Seton HallBE0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
William & MaryCAA0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
HoustonAmer0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
MissouriSEC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.103.333.33-0.09-0.09
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
AmericanPat0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
RutgersB100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
ClemsonACC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
FloridaSEC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
MemphisAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Penn St.B100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.070.0777.1477.140.040.04
Georgia St.SB0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
DePaulBE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01