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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Prairie View A&M

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:304.0
Current RPI:304
Expected SOS:295
Current SOS:295
Current Record:10-23
Expected Record:10-23
Current Conf Record:9-13
Expected Conf Record:9-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-13
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:252
Expected OOC SOS:40



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-23304.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Prairie View A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Mississippi St. (245.0)SECA71-56L0%0.0
11-14Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndH103-108L0%0.0
11-19Texas A&M (148.0)SECA75-65L0%0.0
11-25Colorado St. (182.0)MWCA95-68L0%0.0
11-27New Mexico St. (72.0)WACA91-60L0%0.0
11-29Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACN80-89W100%0.0
12-1Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyA87-70L0%0.0
12-11BYU (31.0)WCCA100-52L0%0.0
12-14UCLA (14.0)P12A95-71L0%0.0
12-21Western Michigan (66.0)MACA92-53L0%0.0
12-28Wisconsin (6.0)B10A80-43L0%0.0
1-4Southern (171.0)SWACH57-60L0%0.0
1-6Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACH70-67W100%0.0
1-11Texas Southern (239.0)SWACA87-83L0%0.0
1-18Jackson St. (296.0)SWACA80-85W100%0.0
1-20Grambling St. (348.0)SWACA82-83W100%0.0
1-25Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACH71-62W100%0.0
1-27Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACH72-81L0%0.0
2-1Alabama St. (254.0)SWACA76-63L0%0.0
2-3Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACA67-55L0%0.0
2-8Texas Southern (239.0)SWACH85-77W100%0.0
2-15Jackson St. (296.0)SWACH53-50W100%0.0
2-17Grambling St. (348.0)SWACH81-83L0%0.0
2-22Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACA76-61L0%0.0
2-24Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACA75-69L0%0.0
3-1Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACH65-72L0%0.0
3-3Alabama St. (254.0)SWACH87-90L0%0.0
3-6Southern (171.0)SWACA91-59L0%0.0
3-8Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACA64-62L0%0.0
3-11Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACN79-63W100%0.0
3-12Southern (171.0)SWACN46-64W100%0.0
3-14Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACN49-55W100%0.0
3-15Texas Southern (239.0)SWACN78-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Prairie View A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Prairie View A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Prairie View A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Prairie View A&MSWAC26.7226.7232.6232.62-9.29-9.29
Texas SouthernSWAC5.665.6655.1755.170.590.59
Alabama A&MSWAC5.615.6140.0040.00-1.12-1.12
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC5.585.5815.3815.38-3.87-3.87
SouthernSWAC5.545.5453.8553.850.430.43
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.214.2137.0437.04-1.09-1.09
Alabama St.SWAC4.204.2053.8553.850.320.32
Grambling St.SWAC4.194.1912.0012.00-3.18-3.18
Jackson St.SWAC4.164.1637.9337.93-1.00-1.00
Alcorn St.SWAC4.124.1230.7730.77-1.59-1.59
Texas A&MSEC1.721.7251.6151.610.060.06
Mississippi St.SEC1.691.6940.6240.62-0.32-0.32
Western MichiganMAC1.621.6270.0070.000.650.65
New Mexico St.WAC1.621.6272.7372.730.730.73
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.591.5967.8667.860.570.57
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.591.5917.2417.24-1.04-1.04
Colorado St.MWC1.591.5944.8344.83-0.16-0.16
Northern ColoradoBSky1.591.5953.5753.570.110.11
BYUWCC1.521.5265.6265.620.470.47
UCLAP121.521.5275.7675.760.780.78
WisconsinB101.521.5278.1278.120.850.85
Jacksonville St.OVC0.190.1927.5927.59-0.08-0.08
TulaneCUSA0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.180.1881.8281.820.110.11
NorthwesternB100.170.1742.4242.42-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
StanfordP120.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
DenverSum0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.150.1535.7135.71-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Weber St.BSky0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
FloridaSEC0.150.1594.1294.120.130.13
ArizonaP120.150.1588.2488.240.110.11
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
OhioMAC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1313.7913.79-0.09-0.09
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1378.7978.790.070.07
WyomingMWC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
AuburnSEC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
ColoradoP120.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
MissouriSEC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.120.1281.8281.820.070.07
TroySB0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
CreightonBE0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
North FloridaASun0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
WashingtonP120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Washington St.P120.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
ToledoMAC0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Oregon St.P120.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
FIUCUSA0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.05-0.05
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
UABCUSA0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
BaylorB120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0893.1093.100.070.07
HoustonAmer0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
TempleAmer0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
LSUSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
UtahP120.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IdahoWAC0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.053.573.57-0.05-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0446.1546.15-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.040.0434.4834.48-0.01-0.01
USCP120.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.040.0462.0762.070.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.023.703.70-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
St. John'sBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
TexasB120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.010.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
DukeACC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01