Prairie View A&M

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	294.0
Current RPI:	294
Expected SOS:	333
Current SOS:	333
Current Record:	11-18
Expected Record:	11-18
Current Conf Record:	10-9
Expected Conf Record:	10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-10
Current OOC Record:	1-9
Expected OOC Record:	1-9
Expected OOC RPI:	254
Expected OOC SOS:	37

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-18	294.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Prairie View A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-17	Florida Gulf Coast (208.0)	ASun	A	68-59	L	0%
11-20	Nevada (65.0)	WAC	A	60-47	L	0%
11-22	Brigham Young (46.0)	WCC	A	90-51	L	0%
11-25	Longwood (332.0)	ind	N	67-70	L	0%
11-26	Wofford (178.0)	SC	N	49-56	L	0%
11-29	Baylor (8.0)	B12	A	90-54	L	0%
12-6	Iowa St. (33.0)	B12	A	84-59	L	0%
12-20	Stephen F. Austin (202.0)	Slnd	N	50-53	W	100%
12-21	Oregon (67.0)	P12	A	74-66	L	0%
12-22	North Carolina Central (233.0)	MEAC	N	58-69	L	0%
1-3	Southern (281.0)	SWAC	H	65-73	L	0%
1-5	Alcorn St. (335.0)	SWAC	H	55-47	W	100%
1-7	Texas Southern (234.0)	SWAC	A	84-49	L	0%
1-14	Jackson St. (322.0)	SWAC	A	66-72	W	100%
1-16	Grambling (341.0)	SWAC	N	64-81	W	100%
1-21	Mississippi Valley St. (144.0)	SWAC	H	57-81	L	0%
1-23	Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)	SWAC	H	76-75	W	100%
1-28	Alabama St. (308.0)	SWAC	A	57-64	W	100%
1-30	Alabama A&M (342.0)	SWAC	A	64-54	L	0%
2-4	Texas Southern (234.0)	SWAC	H	73-67	W	100%
2-11	Jackson St. (322.0)	SWAC	H	48-62	L	0%
2-13	Grambling (341.0)	SWAC	H	71-52	W	100%
2-18	Mississippi Valley St. (144.0)	SWAC	A	60-58	L	0%
2-20	Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)	SWAC	A	61-58	L	0%
2-25	Alabama A&M (342.0)	SWAC	H	60-52	W	100%
2-27	Alabama St. (308.0)	SWAC	H	62-59	W	100%
3-1	Southern (281.0)	SWAC	A	64-63	L	0%
3-3	Alcorn St. (335.0)	SWAC	A	61-64	W	100%
3-8	Alcorn St. (335.0)	SWAC	N	79-103	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Prairie View A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Prairie View A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Prairie View A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	26.49	26.49	39.84	39.84	-5.38	-5.38
Alcorn St.	SWAC	6.15	6.15	24.00	24.00	-3.20	-3.20
Texas Southern	SWAC	4.69	4.69	45.16	45.16	-0.45	-0.45
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	4.64	4.64	61.29	61.29	1.05	1.05
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	4.57	4.57	32.26	32.26	-1.62	-1.62
Alabama St.	SWAC	4.52	4.52	37.04	37.04	-1.17	-1.17
Jackson St.	SWAC	4.52	4.52	17.86	17.86	-2.91	-2.91
Alabama A&M	SWAC	4.48	4.48	16.67	16.67	-2.99	-2.99
Grambling	SWAC	4.44	4.44	15.38	15.38	-3.07	-3.07
Southern	SWAC	4.44	4.44	46.15	46.15	-0.34	-0.34
Baylor	B12	1.92	1.92	78.12	78.12	1.08	1.08
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	1.84	1.84	59.26	59.26	0.34	0.34
Brigham Young	WCC	1.84	1.84	73.33	73.33	0.86	0.86
Iowa St.	B12	1.83	1.83	67.74	67.74	0.65	0.65
Oregon	P12	1.81	1.81	70.00	70.00	0.73	0.73
Longwood	ind	1.81	1.81	19.23	19.23	-1.11	-1.11
Nevada	WAC	1.78	1.78	79.31	79.31	1.05	1.05
North Carolina Central	MEAC	1.78	1.78	44.44	44.44	-0.20	-0.20
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	1.76	1.76	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Wofford	SC	1.72	1.72	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
Texas A&M	B12	0.29	0.29	41.94	41.94	-0.05	-0.05
Tulane	CUSA	0.25	0.25	44.83	44.83	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.21	0.21	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Tech	B12	0.20	0.20	25.81	25.81	-0.10	-0.10
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.17	0.17	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.17	0.17	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.17	0.17	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
Arkansas	SEC	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.16	0.16	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.16	0.16	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	10.34	10.34	-0.12	-0.12
Nebraska	B10	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan	B10	0.15	0.15	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
Florida International	SB	0.14	0.14	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
St. Mary's	WCC	0.14	0.14	83.33	83.33	0.09	0.09
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Colorado	P12	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Texas	B12	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.13	0.13	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Kansas St.	B12	0.13	0.13	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
Missouri	B12	0.13	0.13	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
Northwestern	B10	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.12	0.12	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
North Texas	SB	0.12	0.12	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.12	0.12	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
Mississippi	SEC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
St. Louis	A10	0.11	0.11	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Florida	SEC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.09	0.09	34.62	34.62	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.09	0.09	30.77	30.77	-0.03	-0.03
Providence	BE	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.09	0.09	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Fresno St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Washington	P12	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Belmont	ASun	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Mercer	ASun	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Utah	P12	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
Lipscomb	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	ind	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	21.88	21.88	-0.03	-0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Hawaii	WAC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.06	0.06	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Stanford	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Denver	SB	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.03	-0.03
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.03	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	11.11	11.11	-0.02	-0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	18.75	18.75	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	78.57	78.57	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01