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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Prairie View A&M

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:262.0
Current RPI:262
Expected SOS:328
Current SOS:328
Current Record:14-18
Expected Record:14-18
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-8
Current OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:275
Expected OOC SOS:84



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-18262.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Prairie View A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14TCU (131.0)B12A71-54L0%0.0
11-16Oklahoma St. (49.0)B12A74-52L0%0.0
11-19Rice (247.0)CUSAA68-64L0%0.0
11-21Baylor (10.0)B12A60-45L0%0.0
11-24Memphis (83.0)AmerA77-49L0%0.0
11-27Stephen F. Austin (33.0)SlndN61-73L0%0.0
11-28Brown (248.0)IvyN71-81L0%0.0
12-6Texas St. (236.0)SBA81-65L0%0.0
12-14Texas Tech (183.0)B12A79-51L0%0.0
12-20Sam Houston St. (82.0)SlndA61-44L0%0.0
12-23North Texas (224.0)CUSAA67-70W100%0.0
12-30Hawaii (152.0)BWA76-68L0%0.0
1-3Southern (223.0)SWACA68-56L0%0.0
1-5Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACA68-62L0%0.0
1-10Texas Southern (120.0)SWACH77-81L0%0.0
1-17Jackson St. (322.0)SWACH70-55W100%0.0
1-19Grambling St. (351.0)SWACH74-60W100%0.0
1-24Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACA65-72W100%0.0
1-26Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACA105-68L0%0.0
1-31Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACH89-63W100%0.0
2-2Alabama St. (258.0)SWACH71-73L0%0.0
2-7Texas Southern (120.0)SWACA55-58W100%0.0
2-14Jackson St. (322.0)SWACA55-61W100%0.0
2-16Grambling St. (351.0)SWACA44-95W100%0.0
2-21Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACH84-74W100%0.0
2-23Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACH79-58W100%0.0
2-28Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACA72-75W100%0.0
3-2Alabama St. (258.0)SWACA65-67W100%0.0
3-5Southern (223.0)SWACH73-77L0%0.0
3-7Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACH83-80W100%0.0
3-12Jackson St. (322.0)SWACN62-56W100%0.0
3-13Texas Southern (120.0)SWACN90-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Prairie View A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Prairie View A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Prairie View A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Prairie View A&MSWAC26.4826.4850.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC5.705.7064.5264.521.651.65
Jackson St.SWAC5.575.5737.9337.93-1.34-1.34
SouthernSWAC4.284.2843.3343.33-0.57-0.57
Alcorn St.SWAC4.174.1714.2914.29-2.98-2.98
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.164.1620.0020.00-2.50-2.50
Alabama St.SWAC4.134.1364.0064.001.161.16
Grambling St.SWAC4.114.110.000.00-4.11-4.11
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.104.1036.6736.67-1.09-1.09
Alabama A&MSWAC4.094.0930.7730.77-1.57-1.57
BaylorB121.881.8870.9770.970.790.79
TCUB121.821.8253.1253.120.110.11
Texas TechB121.791.7938.7138.71-0.40-0.40
North TexasCUSA1.771.7742.8642.86-0.25-0.25
Oklahoma St.B121.761.7655.1755.170.180.18
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.751.7586.2186.211.271.27
HawaiiBW1.661.6659.3859.380.310.31
RiceCUSA1.641.6432.1432.14-0.59-0.59
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.641.6471.4371.430.700.70
MemphisAmer1.641.6454.8454.840.160.16
Texas St.SB1.591.5937.0437.04-0.41-0.41
BrownIvy1.561.5635.7135.71-0.45-0.45
TexasB120.330.3360.6160.610.070.07
Iowa St.B120.290.2975.7675.760.150.15
Kansas St.B120.290.2946.8846.88-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.250.2576.4776.470.130.13
LamarSlnd0.230.2342.3142.31-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.220.2268.7568.750.080.08
West VirginiaB120.220.2271.8871.880.100.10
TulaneAmer0.220.2246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.200.2075.0075.000.100.10
HoustonAmer0.200.2040.6240.62-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.180.1856.6756.670.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
Oregon St.P120.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
UTSACUSA0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.1575.8675.860.080.08
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.1434.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.130.1355.5655.560.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1352.9452.940.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.130.1325.9325.93-0.06-0.06
UABCUSA0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
IndianaB100.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
Michigan St.B100.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
SMUAmer0.120.1281.2581.250.070.07
Murray St.OVC0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
TroySB0.110.1129.6329.63-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
AuburnSEC0.090.0941.1841.18-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.090.0993.9493.940.080.08
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0858.3358.330.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.070.0779.3179.310.040.04
UC IrvineBW0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
FloridaSEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
PurdueB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
UtahP120.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
WashingtonP120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
DaytonA100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
WyomingMWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Cal PolyBW0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02