Prairie View A&M

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	315.0
Current RPI:	315
Expected SOS:	341
Current SOS:	341
Current Record:	12-19
Expected Record:	12-19
Current Conf Record:	10-11
Expected Conf Record:	10-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-9
Current OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC RPI:	296
Expected OOC SOS:	230

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-19	315.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Prairie View A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Texas Tech (214.0)	B12	A	89-79	L	0%
11-15	Texas A&M (102.0)	SEC	A	81-59	L	0%
11-18	Texas Christian (238.0)	B12	A	44-39	L	0%
11-20	UAB (144.0)	CUSA	A	76-70	L	0%
11-23	Navy (308.0)	Pat	N	40-42	W	100%
11-24	Fairleigh Dickinson (299.0)	NEC	N	70-84	L	0%
11-28	Houston (197.0)	CUSA	H	81-80	W	100%
12-15	UCLA (26.0)	P12	A	95-53	L	0%
12-22	California (54.0)	P12	A	85-53	L	0%
12-29	Houston (197.0)	CUSA	A	80-75	L	0%
1-2	Alcorn St. (311.0)	SWAC	A	68-54	L	0%
1-4	Southern (180.0)	SWAC	A	50-45	L	0%
1-6	Texas Southern (184.0)	SWAC	H	60-65	L	0%
1-12	Grambling (347.0)	SWAC	H	60-44	W	100%
1-14	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	H	73-59	W	100%
1-19	Mississippi Valley St. (344.0)	SWAC	A	73-64	L	0%
1-21	Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)	SWAC	A	55-51	L	0%
1-26	Alabama St. (328.0)	SWAC	H	74-72	W	100%
1-28	Alabama A&M (329.0)	SWAC	H	65-46	W	100%
2-2	Texas Southern (184.0)	SWAC	A	84-48	L	0%
2-9	Grambling (347.0)	SWAC	A	53-63	W	100%
2-11	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	A	65-60	L	0%
2-16	Mississippi Valley St. (344.0)	SWAC	H	80-77	W	100%
2-18	Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)	SWAC	H	47-76	L	0%
2-23	Alabama St. (328.0)	SWAC	A	56-65	W	100%
2-25	Alabama A&M (329.0)	SWAC	A	57-61	W	100%
2-28	Alcorn St. (311.0)	SWAC	H	75-81	L	0%
3-2	Southern (180.0)	SWAC	H	39-61	L	0%
3-14	Alcorn St. (311.0)	SWAC	N	59-67	W	100%
3-15	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	N	75-88	W	100%
3-16	Southern (180.0)	SWAC	N	45-44	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Prairie View A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Prairie View A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Prairie View A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	26.70	26.70	41.22	41.22	-4.69	-4.69
Southern	SWAC	5.92	5.92	65.38	65.38	1.82	1.82
Jackson St.	SWAC	5.89	5.89	38.46	38.46	-1.36	-1.36
Alcorn St.	SWAC	5.83	5.83	24.14	24.14	-3.02	-3.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	4.40	4.40	33.33	33.33	-1.47	-1.47
Grambling	SWAC	4.39	4.39	0.00	0.00	-4.39	-4.39
Alabama St.	SWAC	4.35	4.35	31.03	31.03	-1.65	-1.65
Texas Southern	SWAC	4.32	4.32	51.72	51.72	0.15	0.15
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	4.28	4.28	15.38	15.38	-2.96	-2.96
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	4.26	4.26	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston	CUSA	3.41	3.41	60.71	60.71	0.73	0.73
Texas Christian	B12	1.91	1.91	30.00	30.00	-0.76	-0.76
Texas Tech	B12	1.81	1.81	33.33	33.33	-0.60	-0.60
Texas A&M	SEC	1.75	1.75	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
UAB	CUSA	1.72	1.72	45.16	45.16	-0.17	-0.17
UCLA	P12	1.66	1.66	72.73	72.73	0.76	0.76
Navy	Pat	1.66	1.66	24.14	24.14	-0.86	-0.86
California	P12	1.66	1.66	63.33	63.33	0.44	0.44
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	1.61	1.61	20.00	20.00	-0.97	-0.97
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.26	0.26	45.16	45.16	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.24	0.24	66.67	66.67	0.08	0.08
Tulane	CUSA	0.24	0.24	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.24	0.24	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.24	0.24	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.24	0.24	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
Rice	CUSA	0.21	0.21	13.79	13.79	-0.15	-0.15
Baylor	B12	0.19	0.19	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.19	0.19	71.88	71.88	0.08	0.08
Arkansas	SEC	0.18	0.18	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.18	0.18	63.64	63.64	0.05	0.05
Stanford	P12	0.18	0.18	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.16	0.16	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.16	0.16	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.16	0.16	62.07	62.07	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.16	0.16	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.16	0.16	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
Texas	B12	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.15	0.15	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
Oregon	P12	0.15	0.15	76.47	76.47	0.08	0.08
Missouri	SEC	0.15	0.15	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Air Force	MWC	0.14	0.14	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.13	0.13	85.29	85.29	0.09	0.09
West Virginia	B12	0.13	0.13	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.13	0.13	84.85	84.85	0.09	0.09
Oklahoma	B12	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Colorado	P12	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.13	0.13	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Arizona	P12	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.11	0.11	14.81	14.81	-0.08	-0.08
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.11	28.12	28.12	-0.05	-0.05
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.11	0.11	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Akron	MAC	0.11	0.11	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Chicago St.	GWC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.10	0.10	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Utah	P12	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Southern California	P12	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.08	0.08	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
North Texas	SB	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
St. Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	81.25	81.25	0.05	0.05
Wyoming	MWC	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.08	0.08	85.19	85.19	0.06	0.06
Bucknell	Pat	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Lafayette	Pat	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Monmouth	NEC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Samford	SC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Temple	A10	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	WAC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.03	0.03	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	70.37	70.37	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Fresno St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.02	0.02	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00