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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Northern Arizona

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:247.0
Current RPI:247
Expected SOS:275
Current SOS:275
Current Record:14-17
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:12-9
Expected Conf Record:12-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-7
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:301
Expected OOC SOS:238



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17247.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9UTSA (306.0)CUSAA63-74W100%0.0
11-11Texas Tech (121.0)B12A88-68L0%0.0
11-15USC (176.0)P12A67-63L0%0.0
11-17Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCA90-78L0%0.0
11-29Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACN50-61L0%0.0
11-30Drake (174.0)MVCN76-56L0%0.0
12-1Fresno St. (117.0)MWCA71-67L0%0.0
12-7Hawaii (160.0)BWH66-76L0%0.0
12-14Grand Canyon (203.0)WACH63-61W100%0.0
12-23Arizona (2.0)P12A77-44L0%0.0
1-2Montana (183.0)BSkyA65-73W100%0.0
1-4Montana St. (275.0)BSkyA68-66L0%0.0
1-9Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyH75-65W100%0.0
1-13Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyA36-70W100%0.0
1-16Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyH84-65W100%0.0
1-18Portland St. (252.0)BSkyH77-56W100%0.0
1-23Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyA87-72L0%0.0
1-25North Dakota (197.0)BSkyA84-68L0%0.0
1-30Weber St. (149.0)BSkyH67-76L0%0.0
2-1Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyH67-65W100%0.0
2-6Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyA87-70L0%0.0
2-8Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyH64-57W100%0.0
2-13Portland St. (252.0)BSkyA63-65W100%0.0
2-15Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyA84-65L0%0.0
2-20Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyH59-74L0%0.0
2-22North Dakota (197.0)BSkyH63-75L0%0.0
2-27Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyA65-66W100%0.0
3-1Weber St. (149.0)BSkyA71-73W100%0.0
3-6Montana St. (275.0)BSkyH61-48W100%0.0
3-8Montana (183.0)BSkyH67-47W100%0.0
3-13Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyN60-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern ArizonaBSky26.5426.5447.4847.48-1.34-1.34
Northern ColoradoBSky5.915.9150.0050.000.000.00
North DakotaBSky4.484.4844.8344.83-0.46-0.46
Weber St.BSky4.434.4361.5461.541.021.02
Portland St.BSky4.414.4155.5655.560.490.49
MontanaBSky4.384.3857.6957.690.670.67
Sacramento St.BSky4.374.3742.3142.31-0.67-0.67
Idaho St.BSky4.344.3436.0036.00-1.22-1.22
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.304.3044.4444.44-0.48-0.48
Montana St.BSky4.304.3040.7440.74-0.80-0.80
Southern UtahBSky4.304.303.853.85-3.97-3.97
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.961.9636.6736.67-0.52-0.52
Grand CanyonWAC1.691.6948.0048.00-0.07-0.07
HawaiiBW1.671.6760.7160.710.360.36
Texas TechB121.671.6741.9441.94-0.27-0.27
Fresno St.MWC1.671.6746.6746.67-0.11-0.11
DrakeMVC1.661.6644.8344.83-0.17-0.17
ArizonaP121.661.6687.8887.881.261.26
UTSACUSA1.661.6623.0823.08-0.90-0.90
USCP121.661.6630.0030.00-0.67-0.67
Loyola MarymountWCC1.641.6436.6736.67-0.44-0.44
IdahoWAC0.340.3445.4545.45-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.340.3427.5927.59-0.15-0.15
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.300.3045.4545.45-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.300.3073.5373.530.140.14
UC IrvineBW0.250.2565.6265.620.080.08
PortlandWCC0.250.2548.3948.39-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.240.2463.3363.330.060.06
WashingtonP120.220.2253.1253.120.010.01
UCLAP120.210.2176.4776.470.110.11
Cal St. FullertonBW0.190.1935.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Colorado St.MWC0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
UNLVMWC0.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
Cal PolyBW0.180.1836.6736.67-0.05-0.05
CaliforniaP120.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.170.1725.8125.81-0.08-0.08
UTEPCUSA0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.170.1762.0762.070.040.04
SeattleWAC0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.170.1763.3363.330.050.05
UC DavisBW0.170.1724.1424.14-0.09-0.09
Utah St.MWC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1657.1457.140.020.02
Arizona St.P120.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
OregonP120.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
ColoradoP120.150.1567.6567.650.050.05
San DiegoWCC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Boise St.MWC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Kansas St.B120.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1387.1087.100.100.10
Long Beach St.BW0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
UMKCWAC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.04-0.04
San Jose St.MWC0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
StanfordP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.06-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Washington St.P120.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
TulsaCUSA0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
DukeACC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00