Northern Arizona

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	255.0
Current RPI:	255
Expected SOS:	222
Current SOS:	222
Current Record:	11-21
Expected Record:	11-21
Current Conf Record:	8-13
Expected Conf Record:	8-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-10
Current OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC RPI:	175
Expected OOC SOS:	42

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-21	255.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Oregon (48.0)	P12	A	83-73	L	0%
11-12	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	A	92-54	L	0%
11-18	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	A	82-85	W	100%
11-23	Jacksonville St. (142.0)	OVC	N	48-50	L	0%
11-24	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	N	70-62	W	100%
11-28	Arizona (16.0)	P12	A	93-50	L	0%
12-1	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	H	77-60	W	100%
12-5	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	H	86-92	L	0%
12-17	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	H	87-80	W	100%
12-19	Montana (66.0)	BSky	H	56-62	L	0%
12-21	Colorado (38.0)	P12	A	98-51	L	0%
12-27	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	A	84-54	L	0%
1-3	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	H	57-50	W	100%
1-5	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	H	77-90	L	0%
1-10	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	A	82-59	L	0%
1-12	Portland St. (339.0)	BSky	A	79-74	L	0%
1-17	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	A	83-70	L	0%
1-19	Idaho St. (337.0)	BSky	A	55-60	W	100%
1-24	Northern Colorado (257.0)	BSky	H	67-65	W	100%
1-26	North Dakota (226.0)	BSky	H	79-81	L	0%
2-2	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	A	78-67	L	0%
2-4	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	A	61-62	W	100%
2-7	Portland St. (339.0)	BSky	H	79-72	W	100%
2-9	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	H	74-77	L	0%
2-14	Northern Colorado (257.0)	BSky	A	76-68	L	0%
2-16	North Dakota (226.0)	BSky	A	72-74	W	100%
2-23	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	A	84-50	L	0%
2-28	Idaho St. (337.0)	BSky	H	67-58	W	100%
3-2	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	H	78-80	L	0%
3-7	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	A	83-79	L	0%
3-9	Montana (66.0)	BSky	A	63-50	L	0%
3-14	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	N	84-58	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Northern Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Northern Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Northern Arizona	BSky	26.50	26.50	35.92	35.92	-7.46	-7.46
Weber St.	BSky	5.80	5.80	77.78	77.78	3.22	3.22
North Dakota	BSky	4.32	4.32	46.43	46.43	-0.31	-0.31
Montana	BSky	4.31	4.31	77.78	77.78	2.40	2.40
Northern Colorado	BSky	4.29	4.29	37.04	37.04	-1.11	-1.11
Eastern Washington	BSky	4.21	4.21	27.59	27.59	-1.89	-1.89
Southern Utah	BSky	4.21	4.21	25.93	25.93	-2.03	-2.03
Montana St.	BSky	4.21	4.21	38.46	38.46	-0.97	-0.97
Portland St.	BSky	4.19	4.19	20.83	20.83	-2.45	-2.45
Idaho St.	BSky	4.18	4.18	18.52	18.52	-2.63	-2.63
Sacramento St.	BSky	4.17	4.17	48.00	48.00	-0.17	-0.17
Oregon	P12	1.80	1.80	75.76	75.76	0.93	0.93
UC Davis	BW	1.78	1.78	46.67	46.67	-0.12	-0.12
Brigham Young	WCC	1.74	1.74	63.33	63.33	0.46	0.46
Hawaii	BW	1.69	1.69	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Colorado	P12	1.68	1.68	64.52	64.52	0.49	0.49
Loyola Marymount	WCC	1.67	1.67	29.03	29.03	-0.70	-0.70
Arizona	P12	1.66	1.66	77.42	77.42	0.91	0.91
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.64	1.64	71.88	71.88	0.72	0.72
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	1.61	1.61	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Jacksonville St.	OVC	1.61	1.61	56.00	56.00	0.19	0.19
Campbell	BSth	1.56	1.56	37.93	37.93	-0.38	-0.38
Portland	WCC	0.32	0.32	30.00	30.00	-0.13	-0.13
Utah	P12	0.30	0.30	41.94	41.94	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.26	0.26	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
Oregon St.	P12	0.26	0.26	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.26	0.26	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.23	0.23	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.23	0.23	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.22	0.22	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
San Jose St.	WAC	0.22	0.22	28.57	28.57	-0.09	-0.09
UC Riverside	BW	0.22	0.22	14.29	14.29	-0.15	-0.15
Cal Poly	BW	0.21	0.21	55.17	55.17	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.20	0.20	93.75	93.75	0.18	0.18
Colorado St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	74.19	74.19	0.10	0.10
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.20	0.20	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.18	0.18	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Utah St.	WAC	0.18	0.18	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Pepperdine	WCC	0.18	0.18	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.18	0.18	63.64	63.64	0.05	0.05
San Francisco	WCC	0.18	0.18	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.17	0.17	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.16	0.16	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Long Beach St.	BW	0.15	0.15	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.15	0.15	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.15	0.15	81.25	81.25	0.09	0.09
Nevada	MWC	0.15	0.15	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Stanford	P12	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.14	0.14	73.53	73.53	0.07	0.07
California	P12	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Washington	P12	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.13	0.13	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Seattle	WAC	0.13	0.13	24.14	24.14	-0.07	-0.07
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.13	0.13	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.13	0.13	35.71	35.71	-0.04	-0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	70.37	70.37	0.04	0.04
Southern California	P12	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.08	0.08	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
Liberty	BSth	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.07	0.07	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Denver	WAC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	85.19	85.19	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00