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Through games of Nov 23, 2014.


Northern Arizona

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:175.9
Current RPI:287
Expected SOS:263
Current SOS:252
Current Record:1-3
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-5
Current OOC Record:1-3
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:168
Expected OOC SOS:168



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-549.80.05%
23-661.40.11%
22-776.70.47%
21-892.21.92%
20-9107.85.02%
19-10124.08.58%
18-11141.713.45%
17-12160.516.26%
16-13179.216.59%
15-14198.414.81%
14-15217.010.92%
13-16237.16.39%
12-17257.83.20%
11-18276.21.49%
10-19291.40.52%
9-20309.70.18%
8-21322.00.01%
7-22322.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Xavier (16.3)BEA93-60L0%0.0
11-16Toledo (77.9)MACA71-58L0%0.0
11-20Fresno St. (207.7)MWCH73-52W100%0.0
11-23Mississippi (84.9)SECA80-74L0%0.0
11-25Middle Tennessee (182.1)CUSAA0-039%-3.2
11-28Southern (285.2)SWACN0-075%8.2
12-3UTSA (255.4)CUSAH0-074%7.9
12-13Loyola Marymount (227.2)WCCH0-072%7.1
12-16Saint Mary's (37.5)WCCA0-012%-14.1
12-19Norfolk St. (236.2)MEACA0-054%1.1
12-21Hampton (237.9)MEACA0-051%0.4
1-1Sacramento St. (231.8)BSkyA0-054%1.1
1-3Portland St. (212.7)BSkyA0-048%-0.6
1-10Southern Utah (338.8)BSkyH0-092%17.0
1-15Weber St. (191.9)BSkyH0-062%3.6
1-17Idaho St. (314.4)BSkyH0-086%12.9
1-22Montana (189.8)BSkyA0-042%-2.5
1-24Montana St. (314.0)BSkyA0-074%7.7
1-31Southern Utah (338.8)BSkyA0-079%9.8
2-5Northern Colorado (217.9)BSkyH0-068%5.6
2-7North Dakota (233.3)BSkyH0-073%7.3
2-12Idaho St. (314.4)BSkyA0-068%5.8
2-14Weber St. (191.9)BSkyA0-038%-3.5
2-19Idaho (244.6)BSkyH0-075%7.9
2-21Eastern Washington (95.4)BSkyH0-046%-1.2
2-26North Dakota (233.3)BSkyA0-050%0.1
2-28Northern Colorado (217.9)BSkyA0-045%-1.6
3-5Portland St. (212.7)BSkyH0-071%6.5
3-7Sacramento St. (231.8)BSkyH0-075%8.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern ArizonaBSky33.8526.3525.0059.98-16.935.26
Southern UtahBSky0.004.370.0018.26-0.00-2.78
North DakotaBSky0.004.280.0043.89-0.00-0.52
Sacramento St.BSky0.004.2750.0046.920.00-0.26
Northern ColoradoBSky0.004.270.0053.39-0.000.29
Portland St.BSky0.004.27100.0052.070.000.18
Idaho St.BSky0.004.210.0029.12-0.00-1.76
Weber St.BSky0.004.200.0051.83-0.000.15
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.002.6266.6768.090.000.95
IdahoBSky0.002.6150.0047.440.00-0.13
Montana St.BSky0.002.610.0020.81-0.00-1.53
MontanaBSky0.002.6133.3351.48-0.000.08
UTSACUSA0.001.8250.0038.200.00-0.43
Saint Mary'sWCC0.001.79100.0071.560.000.77
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.001.7950.0045.630.00-0.16
HamptonMEAC0.001.7925.0052.28-0.000.08
Loyola MarymountWCC0.001.7933.3326.47-0.00-0.84
Norfolk St.MEAC0.001.7833.3346.73-0.00-0.12
SouthernSWAC1.561.780.0038.94-1.56-0.39
MississippiSEC12.501.7566.6753.394.170.12
Fresno St.MWC12.501.720.0034.15-12.50-0.55
ToledoMAC12.501.720.0061.41-12.500.39
XavierBE12.501.72100.0074.6412.500.85
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.4466.6748.230.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.29100.0051.410.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.25100.0061.520.000.06
Boise St.MWC0.000.2575.0063.000.000.07
PacificWCC0.000.2233.3333.24-0.00-0.07
WyomingMWC0.000.22100.0070.560.000.09
BYUWCC0.000.19100.0067.070.000.07
Utah St.MWC0.000.1975.0061.320.000.04
GonzagaWCC0.000.19100.0086.980.000.14
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1933.3349.87-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.160.0028.18-0.00-0.07
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1620.0035.47-0.00-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.000.16100.0062.980.000.04
UC IrvineBW0.000.1633.3367.24-0.000.05
PepperdineWCC3.120.16100.0050.743.120.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.1666.6748.260.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1580.0071.590.000.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1550.0045.000.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.150.0040.51-0.00-0.03
SeattleWAC0.000.1325.0045.26-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1320.0028.39-0.00-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1366.6747.490.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.1360.0056.390.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1350.0045.730.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.13100.0031.430.00-0.05
Washington St.P120.000.1333.3327.62-0.00-0.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.120.0019.35-0.00-0.08
LSUSEC0.000.1275.0058.200.000.02
OregonP122.080.12100.0069.432.080.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1233.3340.10-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1250.0054.200.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.120.0063.27-0.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.120.0037.29-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.120.0038.12-0.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.1233.3341.27-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.12100.0044.560.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.12100.0063.150.000.03
USCP120.000.1040.0028.63-0.00-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1040.0042.16-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1075.0056.830.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.100.0037.72-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.10100.0043.690.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.1075.0051.200.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0975.0069.780.000.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0925.0066.60-0.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0966.6739.840.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0933.3328.24-0.00-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.09100.0070.060.000.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.0966.6732.670.00-0.03
DenverSum0.000.0966.6763.860.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0966.6762.360.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.09100.0043.590.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.090.0035.81-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.0933.3343.07-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0032.38-0.00-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0027.48-0.00-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0950.0050.460.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0933.3343.32-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0933.3344.23-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.09100.0051.580.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.090.0026.81-0.00-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0975.0056.300.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0966.6740.980.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0975.0070.240.000.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0766.6766.540.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.0766.6762.380.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0733.3348.17-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0033.03-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0028.04-0.00-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0633.3335.65-0.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6760.880.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0064.500.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.060.0032.23-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0666.6750.120.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0633.3347.23-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.06100.0081.220.000.04
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.0017.40-0.00-0.04
StetsonASun0.000.060.0031.77-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0650.0035.550.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0675.0065.560.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6752.830.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0675.0070.900.000.03
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0036.09-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0041.94-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.06100.0067.490.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0024.98-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.81-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0625.0040.26-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0019.05-0.00-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.000.06100.0071.230.000.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.35-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0666.6769.560.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0633.3342.08-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0054.380.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0625.0038.29-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0620.0028.32-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0021.84-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0069.20-0.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0650.0042.910.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0033.67-0.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0050.370.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0060.160.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0058.720.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0036.140.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0062.770.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0070.910.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0071.680.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0063.690.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0062.920.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0059.020.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0088.080.000.04
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6746.610.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0073.710.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.060.0035.32-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0052.940.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0666.6768.430.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0675.0067.590.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0046.960.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0053.380.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0054.990.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0045.380.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0056.760.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.570.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0062.400.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.030.0033.50-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0070.150.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0350.0063.270.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0366.6748.940.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.0366.6746.580.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0333.3334.41-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0084.310.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3361.17-0.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0375.0054.060.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0375.0067.090.000.01
IndianaB100.000.03100.0062.410.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.03100.0062.120.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6746.160.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.03100.0075.190.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0041.22-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0064.030.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0350.0069.230.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0056.76-0.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0035.380.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0075.160.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0056.730.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0057.690.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0333.3321.72-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0366.6774.140.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0046.47-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0072.270.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.770.000.01
IowaB100.000.0350.0065.830.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0350.0031.800.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW2.080.0325.0050.35-1.040.00
NJITind0.000.0325.0025.81-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0053.290.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.80-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.080.030.0066.50-2.080.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0068.410.000.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0065.190.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0366.6753.080.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0043.24-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0031.79-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0060.050.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0325.0036.00-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6760.490.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth1.560.0350.0055.730.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0028.27-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3348.37-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.030.0065.55-0.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0375.0072.870.000.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0085.260.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0043.51-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0033.64-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0350.0054.910.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0043.58-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0340.0049.19-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0042.760.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0069.220.000.01
TroySB1.560.030.0044.81-1.56-0.00
VCUA102.080.03100.0074.412.080.01