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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Northern Arizona

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:333.0
Current RPI:333
Expected SOS:165
Current SOS:165
Current Record:3-25
Expected Record:3-25
Current Conf Record:3-16
Expected Conf Record:3-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-13
Current OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC RPI:266
Expected OOC SOS:3



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
3-25333.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Washington St. (212.0)P12A82-70L0%0.0
11-16Boise St. (101.0)MWCA101-81L0%0.0
11-18Gonzaga (46.0)WCCA91-52L0%0.0
11-30Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACH66-70L0%0.0
12-2Hampton (155.0)MEACH94-98L0%0.0
12-5Cal St. Bakersfield (117.0)WACA72-55L0%0.0
12-16Arizona (26.0)P12A92-37L0%0.0
12-20Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBA84-57L0%0.0
12-22Tulsa (58.0)AmerA90-55L0%0.0
12-31Montana (145.0)BSkyH84-90L0%0.0
1-2Montana St. (260.0)BSkyH72-74L0%0.0
1-9Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyA63-73W100%0.0
1-14Idaho (191.0)BSkyA83-76L0%0.0
1-16Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyA96-73L0%0.0
1-21North Dakota (218.0)BSkyH59-101L0%0.0
1-23Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyH79-84L0%0.0
1-28Weber St. (108.0)BSkyA76-66L0%0.0
1-30Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyA88-66L0%0.0
2-4Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyH73-84L0%0.0
2-6Idaho (191.0)BSkyH72-70W100%0.0
2-11Montana St. (260.0)BSkyA101-58L0%0.0
2-13Montana (145.0)BSkyA85-67L0%0.0
2-18Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyH81-68W100%0.0
2-20Weber St. (108.0)BSkyH74-77L0%0.0
2-27Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyH59-69L0%0.0
3-3Portland St. (282.0)BSkyA89-81L0%0.0
3-5Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyA64-51L0%0.0
3-8Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyN74-52L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern ArizonaBSky26.3826.3810.3210.32-20.93-20.93
Eastern WashingtonBSky6.146.1444.4444.44-0.68-0.68
IdahoBSky4.644.6462.0762.071.121.12
MontanaBSky4.534.5359.2659.260.840.84
Southern UtahBSky4.504.5011.5411.54-3.46-3.46
Weber St.BSky4.464.4672.4172.412.002.00
Idaho St.BSky4.394.3948.1548.15-0.16-0.16
Montana St.BSky4.374.3739.2939.29-0.94-0.94
North DakotaBSky2.932.9346.4346.43-0.21-0.21
Portland St.BSky2.902.9035.7135.71-0.83-0.83
Sacramento St.BSky2.872.8739.2939.29-0.61-0.61
Northern ColoradoBSky2.782.7825.0025.00-1.39-1.39
Washington St.P122.022.0224.1424.14-1.04-1.04
ArizonaP121.931.9375.0075.000.970.97
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.931.9371.4371.430.830.83
GonzagaWCC1.901.9077.4277.421.041.04
Boise St.MWC1.901.9058.6258.620.330.33
Arkansas Little RockSB1.871.8786.6786.671.371.37
Norfolk St.MEAC1.851.8546.6746.67-0.12-0.12
HamptonMEAC1.841.8465.5265.520.570.57
TulsaAmer1.811.8163.3363.330.480.48
Utah ValleyWAC0.300.3033.3333.33-0.10-0.10
SeattleWAC0.300.3042.8642.86-0.04-0.04
San Jose St.MWC0.300.3021.4321.43-0.17-0.17
PortlandWCC0.290.2935.4835.48-0.09-0.09
DenverSum0.240.2451.6151.610.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.210.2158.0658.060.030.03
UtahP120.210.2175.7675.760.110.11
WyomingMWC0.210.2140.0040.00-0.04-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.210.2148.2848.28-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
WashingtonP120.200.2056.2556.250.030.03
PacificWCC0.200.2023.0823.08-0.11-0.11
Utah St.MWC0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.180.1883.8783.870.120.12
Morgan St.MEAC0.180.1826.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Arizona St.P120.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
USCP120.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.150.1518.5218.52-0.10-0.10
South DakotaSum0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
NevadaMWC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
UC DavisBW0.150.1532.1432.14-0.05-0.05
UCLAP120.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1279.3179.310.070.07
Colorado St.MWC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
HowardMEAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
SMUAmer0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1277.4277.420.060.06
TroySB0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
StanfordP120.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.090.093.453.45-0.09-0.09
KansasB120.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
DavidsonA100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
PittsburghACC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.090.0912.9012.90-0.06-0.06
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Oregon St.P120.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
CaliforniaP120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0613.3313.33-0.05-0.05
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
SyracuseACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
HoustonAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
OhioMAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
TempleAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
TulaneAmer0.060.0635.2935.29-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01