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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Northern Arizona

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:166.0
Current RPI:166
Expected SOS:254
Current SOS:254
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:14-6
Expected Conf Record:14-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-5
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:194
Expected OOC SOS:103



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-14166.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Xavier (30.0)BEA93-60L0%0.0
11-16Toledo (79.0)MACA71-58L0%0.0
11-20Fresno St. (182.0)MWCH73-52W100%0.0
11-23Mississippi (60.0)SECA80-74L0%0.0
11-25Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAA65-53L0%0.0
11-28Southern (223.0)SWACN70-63W100%0.0
11-29North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACN36-40L0%0.0
12-3UTSA (237.0)CUSAH83-88L0%0.0
12-13Loyola Marymount (268.0)WCCH71-69W100%0.0
12-16Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCA71-73W100%0.0
12-19Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACA81-62L0%0.0
12-21Hampton (251.0)MEACA75-66L0%0.0
1-1Sacramento St. (141.0)BSkyA78-73L0%0.0
1-3Portland St. (225.0)BSkyA60-73W100%0.0
1-10Southern Utah (307.0)BSkyH70-67W100%0.0
1-15Weber St. (263.0)BSkyH65-74L0%0.0
1-17Idaho St. (343.0)BSkyH72-69W100%0.0
1-22Montana (144.0)BSkyA64-57L0%0.0
1-24Montana St. (325.0)BSkyA64-71W100%0.0
1-31Southern Utah (307.0)BSkyA60-81W100%0.0
2-5Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyH65-60W100%0.0
2-7North Dakota (310.0)BSkyH88-63W100%0.0
2-12Idaho St. (343.0)BSkyA80-66L0%0.0
2-14Weber St. (263.0)BSkyA54-61W100%0.0
2-19Idaho (267.0)BSkyH72-65W100%0.0
2-21Eastern Washington (74.0)BSkyH73-69W100%0.0
2-26North Dakota (310.0)BSkyA75-85W100%0.0
2-28Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyA76-74L0%0.0
3-5Portland St. (225.0)BSkyH58-51W100%0.0
3-7Sacramento St. (141.0)BSkyH70-68W100%0.0
3-12Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyN63-57W100%0.0
3-13Montana (144.0)BSkyA61-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern ArizonaBSky26.4126.4161.1961.195.915.91
Northern ColoradoBSky5.465.4648.0048.00-0.22-0.22
MontanaBSky4.044.0457.1457.140.580.58
Sacramento St.BSky4.014.0162.9662.961.041.04
Southern UtahBSky4.014.0134.6234.62-1.23-1.23
Portland St.BSky3.973.9752.0052.000.160.16
North DakotaBSky3.953.9523.0823.08-2.13-2.13
Weber St.BSky3.923.9238.4638.46-0.90-0.90
Idaho St.BSky3.863.8615.3815.38-2.67-2.67
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.552.5576.6776.671.361.36
Montana St.BSky2.442.4421.4321.43-1.40-1.40
IdahoBSky2.442.4440.7440.74-0.45-0.45
HamptonMEAC1.671.6746.8846.88-0.10-0.10
Norfolk St.MEAC1.661.6656.6756.670.220.22
UTSACUSA1.641.6440.7440.74-0.30-0.30
Loyola MarymountWCC1.621.6224.1424.14-0.84-0.84
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.611.6151.5251.520.050.05
Saint Mary'sWCC1.611.6171.4371.430.690.69
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.611.6175.0075.000.810.81
SouthernSWAC1.611.6148.3948.39-0.05-0.05
MississippiSEC1.591.5961.2961.290.360.36
Fresno St.MWC1.561.5644.8344.83-0.16-0.16
ToledoMAC1.561.5659.3859.380.290.29
XavierBE1.561.5660.6160.610.330.33
Utah ValleyWAC0.380.3832.1432.14-0.14-0.14
PortlandWCC0.270.2750.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.240.2441.9441.94-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.240.2474.1974.190.120.12
WyomingMWC0.210.2171.8871.880.090.09
Colorado St.MWC0.210.2181.2581.250.130.13
PacificWCC0.190.1932.1432.14-0.07-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.190.196.906.90-0.16-0.16
Morgan St.MEAC0.180.1822.5822.58-0.10-0.10
South Dakota St.Sum0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
Utah St.MWC0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
BYUWCC0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
GonzagaWCC0.160.1693.9493.940.140.14
North Dakota St.Sum0.160.1670.0070.000.060.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1362.9662.960.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
UTEPCUSA0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
HowardMEAC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1264.7164.710.040.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
UC DavisBW0.110.1179.3179.310.070.07
Washington St.P120.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
NevadaMWC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
CaliforniaP120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
FIUCUSA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
UABCUSA0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0822.5822.58-0.05-0.05
USCP120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
StetsonASun0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
DenverSum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0818.7518.75-0.05-0.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
DePaulBE0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
ButlerBE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Kansas St.B120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0690.9190.910.050.05
OklahomaB120.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UtahP120.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
DaytonA100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
TroySB0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
BucknellPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
IllinoisB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
IowaB100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
VCUA100.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0286.6786.670.020.02