The results on this page EXCLUDE CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED DAILY

New! For the weekly updated Northern Arizona page with conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Feb 7, 2010.

Northern Arizona

Conference:		BSky
Expected RPI:		204.1
Current RPI:		187
Expected SOS:		221
Current SOS:		179
Current Record:		9-11
Expected Record:		11-14
Current Conf Record:		5-6
Expected Conf Record:		7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:		0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:		0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:		0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:		1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:		10-2
Current OOC Record:		4-5
Expected OOC Record:		4-5
Expected OOC RPI:		168
Expected OOC SOS:		196

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-11	157.3	0.93%
13-12	174.3	10.73%
12-13	191.9	31.68%
11-14	210.5	37.06%
10-15	228.7	17.57%
9-16	243.0	2.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-15	Arizona (81.7)	P10	A	70-87	L	0%	0.0
11-17	Fresno St. (160.9)	WAC	H	59-65	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Santa Clara (220.8)	WCC	A	88-72	W	100%	0.0
11-28	San Diego St. (44.0)	MWC	A	48-89	L	0%	0.0
12-4	Montana (102.5)	BSky	A	54-71	L	0%	0.0
12-5	Montana St. (192.5)	BSky	A	50-62	L	0%	0.0
12-13	UC Riverside (264.2)	BW	H	68-56	W	100%	0.0
12-16	New Mexico (14.3)	MWC	A	57-96	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Air Force (235.8)	MWC	A	60-52	W	100%	0.0
12-20	Colorado St. (113.5)	MWC	A	56-64	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Texas Pan American (326.2)	GWC	A	64-59	W	100%	0.0
1-2	Northern Colorado (103.7)	BSky	H	66-75	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Idaho St. (275.5)	BSky	H	68-56	W	100%	0.0
1-9	Weber St. (80.8)	BSky	H	62-87	L	0%	0.0
1-15	Eastern Washington (293.2)	BSky	A	73-69	W	100%	0.0
1-17	Portland St. (210.1)	BSky	A	93-86	W	100%	0.0
1-24	Sacramento St. (287.6)	BSky	H	75-71	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Montana St. (192.5)	BSky	H	71-58	W	100%	0.0
1-30	Montana (102.5)	BSky	H	64-84	L	0%	0.0
2-7	Northern Colorado (103.7)	BSky	A	63-70	L	0%	0.0
2-12	Weber St. (80.8)	BSky	A	0-0		11%	-13.5
2-13	Idaho St. (275.5)	BSky	A	0-0		40%	-2.8
2-18	Portland St. (210.1)	BSky	H	0-0		56%	1.5
2-20	Eastern Washington (293.2)	BSky	H	0-0		80%	9.3
2-26	Sacramento St. (287.6)	BSky	A	0-0		49%	-0.4

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Sorted by , Current Weight, End-Of-Season Weight, Current Help Index, Expected Help Index, and then Alphabetically.

Weights are percentages.

Northern Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Northern Arizona.

Help Ind is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

BY CURRENT WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
Northern Arizona	BSky	26.46	26.49	48.96	49.37	-0.55	-0.34
Montana	BSky	5.91	5.13	65.00	67.88	1.77	1.83
Northern Colorado	BSky	5.87	5.11	77.27	76.40	3.20	2.70
Montana St.	BSky	5.73	5.02	47.37	48.54	-0.30	-0.15
Sacramento St.	BSky	3.37	5.07	31.82	29.26	-1.22	-2.10
Idaho St.	BSky	3.35	5.03	20.00	23.51	-2.01	-2.66
Weber St.	BSky	3.35	5.02	60.00	62.58	0.67	1.26
Eastern Washington	BSky	3.18	5.03	19.05	19.90	-1.97	-3.03
Portland St.	BSky	3.18	5.03	40.00	40.99	-0.64	-0.91
Colorado St.	MWC	2.95	2.39	57.14	51.16	0.42	0.06
San Diego St.	MWC	2.94	2.34	65.00	66.55	0.88	0.78
Air Force	MWC	2.82	2.31	36.84	31.76	-0.74	-0.84
New Mexico	MWC	2.80	2.25	86.96	82.97	2.07	1.48
Fresno St.	WAC	2.78	2.18	45.45	47.28	-0.25	-0.12
UC Riverside	BW	2.78	2.22	35.00	37.85	-0.83	-0.54
Santa Clara	WCC	2.61	2.07	34.78	35.49	-0.80	-0.60
Texas Pan American	GWC	2.56	2.04	12.50	19.44	-1.92	-1.24
Arizona	P10	2.56	2.04	50.00	52.06	0.00	0.08
Boise St.	WAC	0.52	0.44	45.45	45.95	-0.05	-0.04
Brigham Young	MWC	0.52	0.57	87.50	87.42	0.39	0.42
Texas Christian	MWC	0.45	0.38	40.91	38.27	-0.08	-0.09
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.41	0.33	60.00	59.64	0.08	0.06
Oregon	P10	0.40	0.33	54.55	48.81	0.04	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.40	0.42	81.82	80.91	0.25	0.26
Wyoming	MWC	0.39	0.35	33.33	30.72	-0.13	-0.13
Utah	MWC	0.35	0.43	45.45	44.32	-0.03	-0.05
Seattle	ind	0.34	0.54	45.83	48.87	-0.03	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.33	0.29	47.83	44.39	-0.01	-0.03
Pacific	BW	0.33	0.28	68.18	68.10	0.12	0.10
San Diego	WCC	0.33	0.21	33.33	33.43	-0.11	-0.07
UC Davis	BW	0.29	0.25	35.00	33.21	-0.09	-0.08
Washington St.	P10	0.29	0.25	63.64	58.79	0.08	0.04
Washington	P10	0.28	0.22	69.57	68.86	0.11	0.08
Denver	SB	0.27	0.18	60.87	59.58	0.06	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.27	0.28	50.00	48.14	0.00	-0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.27	0.21	15.79	27.84	-0.18	-0.09
Hawaii	WAC	0.26	0.17	36.36	33.80	-0.07	-0.05
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.26	0.19	82.61	75.26	0.17	0.10
Cal Poly	BW	0.24	0.22	36.36	36.06	-0.06	-0.06
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.24	0.19	45.00	48.63	-0.02	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.23	0.29	73.91	76.66	0.11	0.16
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.23	0.25	22.73	21.40	-0.13	-0.15
Nevada	WAC	0.23	0.21	57.14	60.54	0.03	0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.23	0.18	31.82	32.31	-0.08	-0.06
Southern California	P10	0.23	0.25	60.87	59.61	0.05	0.05
Southern Utah	Sum	0.22	0.18	19.05	20.55	-0.14	-0.11
St. Mary's	WCC	0.22	0.18	86.96	84.62	0.16	0.12
Portland	WCC	0.17	0.21	61.90	65.68	0.04	0.07
Pepperdine	WCC	0.17	0.17	27.27	25.31	-0.08	-0.09
Idaho	WAC	0.17	0.21	45.00	48.32	-0.02	-0.01
Oregon St.	P10	0.16	0.17	45.45	40.28	-0.01	-0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.16	0.14	31.82	30.34	-0.06	-0.05
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.16	0.13	61.90	56.37	0.04	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.16	0.10	59.09	51.13	0.03	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.16	0.14	20.00	20.57	-0.09	-0.08
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.12	0.07	39.13	43.30	-0.03	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.12	0.08	69.57	69.99	0.05	0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.12	0.08	55.56	55.85	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P10	0.11	0.10	66.67	67.74	0.04	0.04
Stanford	P10	0.11	0.14	43.48	43.10	-0.01	-0.02
Colorado	B12	0.11	0.07	42.86	40.56	-0.02	-0.01
UCLA	P10	0.11	0.10	47.83	43.79	-0.00	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.14	81.82	83.61	0.07	0.09
California	P10	0.11	0.10	65.22	68.42	0.03	0.04
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.11	0.17	22.73	24.05	-0.06	-0.09
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.10	0.07	36.36	36.18	-0.03	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.10	0.07	26.32	31.51	-0.05	-0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.07	45.00	54.19	-0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.06	47.37	52.55	-0.01	0.00
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.10	0.06	55.56	58.32	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.04	40.00	40.09	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.04	66.67	64.62	0.02	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.04	52.00	51.84	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	ind	0.06	0.04	4.76	9.78	-0.06	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.04	47.06	53.78	-0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.04	77.27	75.69	0.03	0.02
Belmont	ASun	0.06	0.07	60.00	63.83	0.01	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.07	52.17	50.21	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.04	44.00	43.20	-0.01	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.07	56.52	50.47	0.01	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.07	42.86	45.66	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.07	38.10	38.08	-0.01	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.08	68.18	67.88	0.02	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.07	70.83	63.39	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.07	36.36	40.08	-0.02	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.07	62.50	65.32	0.01	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.03	56.52	54.46	0.01	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.07	47.62	49.36	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.07	47.06	43.53	-0.00	-0.01
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.06	0.03	29.41	29.63	-0.02	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.03	36.36	38.12	-0.02	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.03	52.17	56.48	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	58.33	54.32	0.01	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	33.33	33.96	-0.02	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.07	47.83	47.55	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	76.19	73.20	0.03	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.03	78.26	78.92	0.03	0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.68	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.91	0.02	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.03	73.68	75.41	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.03	43.48	47.68	-0.01	-0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.03	35.00	38.23	-0.02	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	22.22	26.51	-0.03	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.11	0.02	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.03	54.17	58.55	0.00	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.85	0.02	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.03	68.18	59.30	0.02	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.03	66.67	67.94	0.02	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	53.61	0.01	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.03	47.83	46.11	-0.00	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.73	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.48	0.02	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	70.60	0.02	0.01
Nebraska	B12	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.42	0.01	0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.06	22.22	27.56	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	67.93	0.02	0.01
South Dakota	GWC	0.05	0.06	50.00	60.53	0.00	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.03	82.61	78.76	0.03	0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	36.84	36.82	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.06	36.84	39.02	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	66.67	57.29	0.02	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.00	0.04	28.57	27.72	-0.00	-0.02

BY END-OF-SEASON WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
Northern Arizona	BSky	26.46	26.49	48.96	49.37	-0.55	-0.34
Montana	BSky	5.91	5.13	65.00	67.88	1.77	1.83
Northern Colorado	BSky	5.87	5.11	77.27	76.40	3.20	2.70
Sacramento St.	BSky	3.37	5.07	31.82	29.26	-1.22	-2.10
Eastern Washington	BSky	3.18	5.03	19.05	19.90	-1.97	-3.03
Portland St.	BSky	3.18	5.03	40.00	40.99	-0.64	-0.91
Idaho St.	BSky	3.35	5.03	20.00	23.51	-2.01	-2.66
Montana St.	BSky	5.73	5.02	47.37	48.54	-0.30	-0.15
Weber St.	BSky	3.35	5.02	60.00	62.58	0.67	1.26
Colorado St.	MWC	2.95	2.39	57.14	51.16	0.42	0.06
San Diego St.	MWC	2.94	2.34	65.00	66.55	0.88	0.78
Air Force	MWC	2.82	2.31	36.84	31.76	-0.74	-0.84
New Mexico	MWC	2.80	2.25	86.96	82.97	2.07	1.48
UC Riverside	BW	2.78	2.22	35.00	37.85	-0.83	-0.54
Fresno St.	WAC	2.78	2.18	45.45	47.28	-0.25	-0.12
Santa Clara	WCC	2.61	2.07	34.78	35.49	-0.80	-0.60
Texas Pan American	GWC	2.56	2.04	12.50	19.44	-1.92	-1.24
Arizona	P10	2.56	2.04	50.00	52.06	0.00	0.08
Brigham Young	MWC	0.52	0.57	87.50	87.42	0.39	0.42
Seattle	ind	0.34	0.54	45.83	48.87	-0.03	-0.01
Boise St.	WAC	0.52	0.44	45.45	45.95	-0.05	-0.04
Utah	MWC	0.35	0.43	45.45	44.32	-0.03	-0.05
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.40	0.42	81.82	80.91	0.25	0.26
Texas Christian	MWC	0.45	0.38	40.91	38.27	-0.08	-0.09
Wyoming	MWC	0.39	0.35	33.33	30.72	-0.13	-0.13
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.41	0.33	60.00	59.64	0.08	0.06
Oregon	P10	0.40	0.33	54.55	48.81	0.04	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.33	0.29	47.83	44.39	-0.01	-0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.23	0.29	73.91	76.66	0.11	0.16
Pacific	BW	0.33	0.28	68.18	68.10	0.12	0.10
San Jose St.	WAC	0.27	0.28	50.00	48.14	0.00	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.23	0.25	22.73	21.40	-0.13	-0.15
UC Davis	BW	0.29	0.25	35.00	33.21	-0.09	-0.08
Southern California	P10	0.23	0.25	60.87	59.61	0.05	0.05
Washington St.	P10	0.29	0.25	63.64	58.79	0.08	0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.24	0.22	36.36	36.06	-0.06	-0.06
Washington	P10	0.28	0.22	69.57	68.86	0.11	0.08
Nevada	WAC	0.23	0.21	57.14	60.54	0.03	0.04
Portland	WCC	0.17	0.21	61.90	65.68	0.04	0.07
North Dakota	GWC	0.27	0.21	15.79	27.84	-0.18	-0.09
Idaho	WAC	0.17	0.21	45.00	48.32	-0.02	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.33	0.21	33.33	33.43	-0.11	-0.07
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.26	0.19	82.61	75.26	0.17	0.10
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.24	0.19	45.00	48.63	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.22	0.18	19.05	20.55	-0.14	-0.11
Denver	SB	0.27	0.18	60.87	59.58	0.06	0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.23	0.18	31.82	32.31	-0.08	-0.06
St. Mary's	WCC	0.22	0.18	86.96	84.62	0.16	0.12
Pepperdine	WCC	0.17	0.17	27.27	25.31	-0.08	-0.09
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.11	0.17	22.73	24.05	-0.06	-0.09
Oregon St.	P10	0.16	0.17	45.45	40.28	-0.01	-0.03
Hawaii	WAC	0.26	0.17	36.36	33.80	-0.07	-0.05
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.14	81.82	83.61	0.07	0.09
Rice	CUSA	0.16	0.14	31.82	30.34	-0.06	-0.05
Stanford	P10	0.11	0.14	43.48	43.10	-0.01	-0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.16	0.14	20.00	20.57	-0.09	-0.08
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.16	0.13	61.90	56.37	0.04	0.02
Arizona St.	P10	0.11	0.10	66.67	67.74	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.16	0.10	59.09	51.13	0.03	0.00
UCLA	P10	0.11	0.10	47.83	43.79	-0.00	-0.01
California	P10	0.11	0.10	65.22	68.42	0.03	0.04
Memphis	CUSA	0.12	0.08	69.57	69.99	0.05	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.08	68.18	67.88	0.02	0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.12	0.08	55.56	55.85	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.07	52.17	50.21	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.12	0.07	39.13	43.30	-0.03	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.07	56.52	50.47	0.01	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.07	42.86	45.66	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.07	38.10	38.08	-0.01	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.07	70.83	63.39	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.07	36.36	40.08	-0.02	-0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.06	0.07	60.00	63.83	0.01	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.07	47.62	49.36	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.07	47.83	47.55	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.07	47.06	43.53	-0.00	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.07	62.50	65.32	0.01	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.10	0.07	36.36	36.18	-0.03	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.10	0.07	26.32	31.51	-0.05	-0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.07	45.00	54.19	-0.01	0.01
Colorado	B12	0.11	0.07	42.86	40.56	-0.02	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.06	22.22	27.56	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota	GWC	0.05	0.06	50.00	60.53	0.00	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.06	47.37	52.55	-0.01	0.00
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.10	0.06	55.56	58.32	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.06	36.84	39.02	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.04	40.00	40.09	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.04	66.67	64.62	0.02	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.04	52.00	51.84	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	ind	0.06	0.04	4.76	9.78	-0.06	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.04	47.06	53.78	-0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.04	77.27	75.69	0.03	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.00	0.04	28.57	27.72	-0.00	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.04	44.00	43.20	-0.01	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.03	73.68	75.41	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.03	56.52	54.46	0.01	0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.03	35.00	38.23	-0.02	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.11	0.02	0.01
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.06	0.03	29.41	29.63	-0.02	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.03	66.67	67.94	0.02	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.03	36.36	38.12	-0.02	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.03	52.17	56.48	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	58.33	54.32	0.01	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	76.19	73.20	0.03	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.03	78.26	78.92	0.03	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	53.61	0.01	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.03	47.83	46.11	-0.00	-0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.68	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.91	0.02	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.73	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.03	43.48	47.68	-0.01	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.48	0.02	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	70.60	0.02	0.01
Nebraska	B12	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.42	0.01	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	22.22	26.51	-0.03	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	33.33	33.96	-0.02	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	67.93	0.02	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.03	54.17	58.55	0.00	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.03	82.61	78.76	0.03	0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.85	0.02	0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	36.84	36.82	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.03	68.18	59.30	0.02	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	66.67	57.29	0.02	0.00

BY CURRENT HELP INDEX: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
Northern Colorado	BSky	5.87	5.11	77.27	76.40	3.20	2.70
New Mexico	MWC	2.80	2.25	86.96	82.97	2.07	1.48
Montana	BSky	5.91	5.13	65.00	67.88	1.77	1.83
San Diego St.	MWC	2.94	2.34	65.00	66.55	0.88	0.78
Weber St.	BSky	3.35	5.02	60.00	62.58	0.67	1.26
Colorado St.	MWC	2.95	2.39	57.14	51.16	0.42	0.06
Brigham Young	MWC	0.52	0.57	87.50	87.42	0.39	0.42
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.40	0.42	81.82	80.91	0.25	0.26
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.26	0.19	82.61	75.26	0.17	0.10
St. Mary's	WCC	0.22	0.18	86.96	84.62	0.16	0.12
Pacific	BW	0.33	0.28	68.18	68.10	0.12	0.10
Utah St.	WAC	0.23	0.29	73.91	76.66	0.11	0.16
Washington	P10	0.28	0.22	69.57	68.86	0.11	0.08
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.41	0.33	60.00	59.64	0.08	0.06
Washington St.	P10	0.29	0.25	63.64	58.79	0.08	0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.14	81.82	83.61	0.07	0.09
Denver	SB	0.27	0.18	60.87	59.58	0.06	0.03
Southern California	P10	0.23	0.25	60.87	59.61	0.05	0.05
Memphis	CUSA	0.12	0.08	69.57	69.99	0.05	0.03
Portland	WCC	0.17	0.21	61.90	65.68	0.04	0.07
Arizona St.	P10	0.11	0.10	66.67	67.74	0.04	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.16	0.13	61.90	56.37	0.04	0.02
Oregon	P10	0.40	0.33	54.55	48.81	0.04	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.04	77.27	75.69	0.03	0.02
Nevada	WAC	0.23	0.21	57.14	60.54	0.03	0.04
Texas	B12	0.05	0.03	82.61	78.76	0.03	0.02
California	P10	0.11	0.10	65.22	68.42	0.03	0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.03	78.26	78.92	0.03	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.16	0.10	59.09	51.13	0.03	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	76.19	73.20	0.03	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.07	70.83	63.39	0.02	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.03	73.68	75.41	0.02	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	70.60	0.02	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.91	0.02	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.85	0.02	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.08	68.18	67.88	0.02	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.04	66.67	64.62	0.02	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.48	0.02	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	67.93	0.02	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.03	68.18	59.30	0.02	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.11	0.02	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.03	66.67	67.94	0.02	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	66.67	57.29	0.02	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.07	62.50	65.32	0.01	0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.12	0.08	55.56	55.85	0.01	0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.06	0.07	60.00	63.83	0.01	0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.10	0.06	55.56	58.32	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	58.33	54.32	0.01	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.07	56.52	50.47	0.01	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.03	56.52	54.46	0.01	0.00
Nebraska	B12	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.42	0.01	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	53.61	0.01	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.03	54.17	58.55	0.00	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.07	52.17	50.21	0.00	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.04	52.00	51.84	0.00	0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.03	52.17	56.48	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P10	2.56	2.04	50.00	52.06	0.00	0.08
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.68	0.00	0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.27	0.28	50.00	48.14	0.00	-0.01
South Dakota	GWC	0.05	0.06	50.00	60.53	0.00	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.00	0.04	28.57	27.72	-0.00	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.03	47.83	46.11	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.07	47.83	47.55	-0.00	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.73	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.07	47.62	49.36	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.07	47.06	43.53	-0.00	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.04	47.06	53.78	-0.00	0.00
UCLA	P10	0.11	0.10	47.83	43.79	-0.00	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.06	47.37	52.55	-0.01	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.03	43.48	47.68	-0.01	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.04	44.00	43.20	-0.01	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.07	42.86	45.66	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.07	45.00	54.19	-0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.04	40.00	40.09	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	36.84	36.82	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.06	36.84	39.02	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.07	38.10	38.08	-0.01	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.33	0.29	47.83	44.39	-0.01	-0.03
Oregon St.	P10	0.16	0.17	45.45	40.28	-0.01	-0.03
Stanford	P10	0.11	0.14	43.48	43.10	-0.01	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.03	36.36	38.12	-0.02	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.03	35.00	38.23	-0.02	-0.01
Colorado	B12	0.11	0.07	42.86	40.56	-0.02	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.07	36.36	40.08	-0.02	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.17	0.21	45.00	48.32	-0.02	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	33.33	33.96	-0.02	-0.01
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.06	0.03	29.41	29.63	-0.02	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.24	0.19	45.00	48.63	-0.02	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.12	0.07	39.13	43.30	-0.03	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.06	22.22	27.56	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.10	0.07	36.36	36.18	-0.03	-0.02
Seattle	ind	0.34	0.54	45.83	48.87	-0.03	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	22.22	26.51	-0.03	-0.02
Utah	MWC	0.35	0.43	45.45	44.32	-0.03	-0.05
Boise St.	WAC	0.52	0.44	45.45	45.95	-0.05	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.10	0.07	26.32	31.51	-0.05	-0.03
North Carolina Central	ind	0.06	0.04	4.76	9.78	-0.06	-0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.11	0.17	22.73	24.05	-0.06	-0.09
Rice	CUSA	0.16	0.14	31.82	30.34	-0.06	-0.05
Cal Poly	BW	0.24	0.22	36.36	36.06	-0.06	-0.06
Hawaii	WAC	0.26	0.17	36.36	33.80	-0.07	-0.05
Pepperdine	WCC	0.17	0.17	27.27	25.31	-0.08	-0.09
Texas Christian	MWC	0.45	0.38	40.91	38.27	-0.08	-0.09
San Francisco	WCC	0.23	0.18	31.82	32.31	-0.08	-0.06
UC Davis	BW	0.29	0.25	35.00	33.21	-0.09	-0.08
Chicago St.	GWC	0.16	0.14	20.00	20.57	-0.09	-0.08
San Diego	WCC	0.33	0.21	33.33	33.43	-0.11	-0.07
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.23	0.25	22.73	21.40	-0.13	-0.15
Wyoming	MWC	0.39	0.35	33.33	30.72	-0.13	-0.13
Southern Utah	Sum	0.22	0.18	19.05	20.55	-0.14	-0.11
North Dakota	GWC	0.27	0.21	15.79	27.84	-0.18	-0.09
Fresno St.	WAC	2.78	2.18	45.45	47.28	-0.25	-0.12
Montana St.	BSky	5.73	5.02	47.37	48.54	-0.30	-0.15
Northern Arizona	BSky	26.46	26.49	48.96	49.37	-0.55	-0.34
Portland St.	BSky	3.18	5.03	40.00	40.99	-0.64	-0.91
Air Force	MWC	2.82	2.31	36.84	31.76	-0.74	-0.84
Santa Clara	WCC	2.61	2.07	34.78	35.49	-0.80	-0.60
UC Riverside	BW	2.78	2.22	35.00	37.85	-0.83	-0.54
Sacramento St.	BSky	3.37	5.07	31.82	29.26	-1.22	-2.10
Texas Pan American	GWC	2.56	2.04	12.50	19.44	-1.92	-1.24
Eastern Washington	BSky	3.18	5.03	19.05	19.90	-1.97	-3.03
Idaho St.	BSky	3.35	5.03	20.00	23.51	-2.01	-2.66

BY EXPECTED (END-OF-SEASON) HELP INDEX: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
Northern Colorado	BSky	5.87	5.11	77.27	76.40	3.20	2.70
Montana	BSky	5.91	5.13	65.00	67.88	1.77	1.83
New Mexico	MWC	2.80	2.25	86.96	82.97	2.07	1.48
Weber St.	BSky	3.35	5.02	60.00	62.58	0.67	1.26
San Diego St.	MWC	2.94	2.34	65.00	66.55	0.88	0.78
Brigham Young	MWC	0.52	0.57	87.50	87.42	0.39	0.42
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.40	0.42	81.82	80.91	0.25	0.26
Utah St.	WAC	0.23	0.29	73.91	76.66	0.11	0.16
St. Mary's	WCC	0.22	0.18	86.96	84.62	0.16	0.12
Pacific	BW	0.33	0.28	68.18	68.10	0.12	0.10
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.26	0.19	82.61	75.26	0.17	0.10
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.14	81.82	83.61	0.07	0.09
Arizona	P10	2.56	2.04	50.00	52.06	0.00	0.08
Washington	P10	0.28	0.22	69.57	68.86	0.11	0.08
Portland	WCC	0.17	0.21	61.90	65.68	0.04	0.07
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.41	0.33	60.00	59.64	0.08	0.06
Colorado St.	MWC	2.95	2.39	57.14	51.16	0.42	0.06
Southern California	P10	0.23	0.25	60.87	59.61	0.05	0.05
Nevada	WAC	0.23	0.21	57.14	60.54	0.03	0.04
Washington St.	P10	0.29	0.25	63.64	58.79	0.08	0.04
California	P10	0.11	0.10	65.22	68.42	0.03	0.04
Arizona St.	P10	0.11	0.10	66.67	67.74	0.04	0.04
Denver	SB	0.27	0.18	60.87	59.58	0.06	0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.12	0.08	69.57	69.99	0.05	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.08	68.18	67.88	0.02	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.07	62.50	65.32	0.01	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.07	70.83	63.39	0.02	0.02
Belmont	ASun	0.06	0.07	60.00	63.83	0.01	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.03	78.26	78.92	0.03	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.04	77.27	75.69	0.03	0.02
Texas	B12	0.05	0.03	82.61	78.76	0.03	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.03	73.68	75.41	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.16	0.13	61.90	56.37	0.04	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	76.19	73.20	0.03	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.91	0.02	0.01
South Dakota	GWC	0.05	0.06	50.00	60.53	0.00	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	70.60	0.02	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.11	0.02	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.03	66.67	67.94	0.02	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.48	0.02	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	67.93	0.02	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.85	0.02	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.04	66.67	64.62	0.02	0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.10	0.06	55.56	58.32	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.12	0.08	55.56	55.85	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.03	68.18	59.30	0.02	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.07	45.00	54.19	-0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.03	54.17	58.55	0.00	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	66.67	57.29	0.02	0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.03	52.17	56.48	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.06	47.37	52.55	-0.01	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.03	56.52	54.46	0.01	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	58.33	54.32	0.01	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.04	47.06	53.78	-0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	53.61	0.01	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.16	0.10	59.09	51.13	0.03	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.04	52.00	51.84	0.00	0.00