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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Northern Arizona

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:328.5
Current RPI:332
Expected SOS:268
Current SOS:286
Current Record:3-19
Expected Record:4-23
Current Conf Record:1-11
Expected Conf Record:2-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-11
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:298
Expected OOC SOS:250



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-19293.00.02%
7-20307.40.69%
6-21316.28.94%
5-22325.232.79%
4-23331.541.90%
3-24335.615.65%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Louisiana Lafayette (159.3)SBN83-66L0%0.0
11-12San Francisco (152.1)WCCA69-50L0%0.0
11-13North Dakota St. (125.0)SumN58-70L0%0.0
11-26Loyola Marymount (107.0)WCCA81-61L0%0.0
11-30Brigham Young (44.9)WCCN52-87L0%0.0
12-3Arizona (75.8)P12A53-39L0%0.0
12-7Pepperdine (250.7)WCCH40-49L0%0.0
12-10Cal St. Bakersfield (210.9)indH80-67W100%0.0
12-17Arizona St. (241.2)P12A68-69W100%0.0
12-20Sam Houston St. (286.0)SlndA73-49L0%0.0
12-29Sacramento St. (305.2)BSkyH73-64W100%0.0
12-31Northern Colorado (251.5)BSkyA80-64L0%0.0
1-5Portland St. (207.8)BSkyA82-62L0%0.0
1-7Eastern Washington (210.5)BSkyA76-59L0%0.0
1-12Montana (101.6)BSkyH53-78L0%0.0
1-14Montana St. (261.8)BSkyH72-74L0%0.0
1-19Weber St. (84.1)BSkyA81-67L0%0.0
1-21Idaho St. (259.8)BSkyA78-62L0%0.0
1-28Sacramento St. (305.2)BSkyA77-43L0%0.0
1-30Northern Colorado (251.5)BSkyH62-64L0%0.0
2-2Eastern Washington (210.5)BSkyH68-74L0%0.0
2-4Portland St. (207.8)BSkyH65-76L0%0.0
2-9Weber St. (84.1)BSkyH0-010%-13.8
2-11Idaho St. (259.8)BSkyH0-041%-2.4
2-18UC Davis (342.2)BWH0-062%3.3
2-23Montana (101.6)BSkyA0-02%-21.9
2-27Montana St. (261.8)BSkyA0-020%-9.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern ArizonaBSky26.6126.4613.0014.56-19.69-18.76
Montana St.BSky3.304.7642.1137.73-0.52-1.17
Idaho St.BSky3.114.7430.0030.39-1.24-1.86
Sacramento St.BSky5.314.7327.7831.80-2.36-1.72
Portland St.BSky5.214.7136.8441.63-1.37-0.79
Eastern WashingtonBSky5.284.7135.0039.73-1.58-0.97
MontanaBSky3.144.7068.4271.231.162.00
Weber St.BSky3.204.7078.9575.341.852.38
Northern ColoradoBSky5.264.6722.2225.84-2.92-2.25
San FranciscoWCC2.682.1954.5552.060.240.09
PepperdineWCC2.682.1828.5731.28-1.15-0.82
Loyola MarymountWCC2.682.1857.1456.200.380.27
Brigham YoungWCC2.532.1273.9175.151.211.07
Cal St. Bakersfieldind2.602.0950.0049.710.00-0.01
Arizona St.P122.482.0531.8232.52-0.90-0.72
UC DavisBW0.221.990.004.20-0.22-1.82
North Dakota St.Sum2.421.9560.0062.120.480.47
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.381.9252.1753.130.100.12
ArizonaP122.321.9165.2267.510.710.67
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.271.8522.2227.09-1.26-0.85
St. Mary'sWCC0.460.4090.9187.740.380.30
Seattleind0.320.3723.5333.28-0.17-0.12
Cal St. FullertonBW0.360.3765.0066.700.110.12
San DiegoWCC0.300.3733.3333.82-0.10-0.12
UtahP120.310.3618.1815.01-0.20-0.25
GonzagaWCC0.400.3681.8281.490.260.23
IdahoWAC0.270.3447.6251.08-0.010.01
PortlandWCC0.310.3321.7421.70-0.17-0.19
San Jose St.WAC0.210.3127.2726.95-0.10-0.14
North DakotaGWC0.330.3133.3341.31-0.11-0.05
Washington St.P120.370.2950.0048.170.00-0.01
UCLAP120.300.2954.5556.790.030.04
Cal PolyBW0.210.2750.0056.760.000.04
WyomingMWC0.330.2776.1970.730.170.11
Santa ClaraWCC0.200.2628.5726.30-0.09-0.13
PacificBW0.150.2335.0037.47-0.04-0.06
Oregon St.P120.310.2363.6463.160.080.06
OregonP120.360.2269.5764.530.140.07
Southern UtahSum0.170.2045.4544.30-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.310.2069.5768.900.120.08
DenverSB0.270.2070.8372.230.110.09
UC IrvineBW0.060.2035.0035.26-0.02-0.06
HawaiiWAC0.150.2057.1453.120.020.01
Utah St.WAC0.160.1750.0052.930.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.160.1781.8281.030.100.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.150.1721.0522.46-0.09-0.09
NevadaWAC0.150.1780.9576.420.100.09
ColoradoP120.150.1666.6762.650.050.04
Colorado St.MWC0.170.1466.6760.800.060.03
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.060.1476.1975.940.030.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.220.1441.1842.61-0.04-0.02
OklahomaB120.170.1459.0954.700.030.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.1442.8639.66-0.01-0.03
South DakotaSum0.160.1326.3228.83-0.07-0.06
Utah ValleyGWC0.170.1354.5557.690.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.1371.4373.350.020.06
CaliforniaP120.150.1375.0074.610.080.06
North TexasSB0.160.1350.0050.010.000.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.100.1225.0025.13-0.05-0.06
WashingtonP120.100.1269.5766.540.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1127.7829.87-0.05-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1073.9175.490.050.05
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.170.1057.1460.750.020.02
OaklandSum0.160.1048.0050.21-0.010.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.1055.5658.010.010.02
StanfordP120.100.0969.5768.290.040.03
Iowa St.B120.110.0773.9168.430.050.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0734.7838.42-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.110.0779.1775.980.070.04
Northern IowaMVC0.110.0762.5061.500.030.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.0747.6247.18-0.01-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.110.0745.0046.13-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.110.0734.7837.24-0.03-0.02
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.110.0735.0035.31-0.03-0.02
IUPUISum0.050.0734.7835.50-0.02-0.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0734.7835.20-0.02-0.02
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.050.0733.3338.38-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.110.0780.7780.750.070.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0747.0650.75-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0718.1821.13-0.04-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0719.0524.61-0.03-0.03
Texas St.Slnd0.060.0722.2227.62-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0752.6348.410.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0761.9067.230.010.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.0725.0023.75-0.05-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.050.0742.8641.13-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.110.0742.8643.45-0.02-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.0720.0019.96-0.06-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.0725.0037.58-0.05-0.02
Fresno St.WAC0.100.0739.1344.52-0.02-0.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.100.0683.3384.760.070.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0643.4844.25-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0637.5038.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.068.708.99-0.04-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0665.2263.610.010.02
BryantNEC0.050.068.3310.86-0.04-0.05
DuquesneA100.090.0659.0956.350.020.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0685.7178.050.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0328.5734.20-0.02-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0381.8280.430.040.02
MercerASun0.060.0370.8371.640.020.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0369.5761.310.020.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0382.6181.440.030.02
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0337.5041.54-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0355.0054.480.000.00
Notre DameBE0.060.0365.2262.650.020.01
SamfordSC0.060.0333.3335.26-0.02-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0327.7829.58-0.03-0.01
TexasB120.060.0360.8761.370.010.01
Texas A&MB120.060.0352.3846.150.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.050.0331.8225.98-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0338.1040.81-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0340.9142.96-0.00-0.00
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0335.0039.38-0.02-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0355.0054.800.010.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0314.2917.17-0.04-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0372.7371.710.020.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0390.4887.910.040.03
Holy CrossPat0.050.0340.9142.05-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.03100.0094.550.050.03
St. LouisA100.050.0377.2777.670.030.02
BaylorB120.050.0390.9183.850.040.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0368.4266.450.020.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0371.4366.600.020.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0336.3639.72-0.01-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.050.0333.3337.16-0.02-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0325.0028.52-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0371.4369.050.020.01
Longwoodind0.050.0330.0027.84-0.02-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0363.6456.710.010.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0335.0040.78-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0368.0070.030.020.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0352.3852.870.000.00
TroySB0.050.0328.5730.17-0.02-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0356.5255.200.010.00
Western KentuckySB0.050.0334.7834.48-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0375.0073.970.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0350.0042.830.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.5554.300.000.00
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0385.7182.180.040.02
TulsaCUSA0.050.0360.8759.050.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0347.8343.66-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0355.0057.410.000.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0350.0048.360.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0382.6177.630.030.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0378.2672.340.030.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0343.4840.28-0.01-0.01