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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Northern Arizona

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:335.0
Current RPI:335
Expected SOS:316
Current SOS:316
Current Record:8-23
Expected Record:8-23
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-15
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:327
Expected OOC SOS:294



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-23335.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Santa Clara (126.0)WCCA67-64L0%0.0
11-12Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCN69-65L0%0.0
11-13UC Davis (166.0)BWN76-89L0%0.0
11-20Washington (211.0)P12A92-58L0%0.0
11-22UNLV (242.0)MWCA110-71L0%0.0
11-25Alabama St. (342.0)SWACN57-71W100%0.0
11-26Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCN63-76L0%0.0
12-3San Diego (205.0)WCCH65-80L0%0.0
12-5Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACH47-81L0%0.0
12-14Little Rock (243.0)SBH67-72L0%0.0
12-17UTEP (222.0)CUSAA74-76W100%0.0
12-20Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzA75-65L0%0.0
12-31Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyH80-93L0%0.0
1-5North Dakota (144.0)BSkyA68-63L0%0.0
1-7Northern Colorado (286.0)BSkyA83-79L0%0.0
1-14Sacramento St. (293.0)BSkyH62-74L0%0.0
1-16Portland St. (268.0)BSkyH83-76W100%0.0
1-19Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyA84-62L0%0.0
1-21Idaho (209.0)BSkyA65-49L0%0.0
1-26Northern Colorado (286.0)BSkyH63-50W100%0.0
1-28North Dakota (144.0)BSkyH68-67W100%0.0
2-2Idaho St. (340.0)BSkyA91-90L0%0.0
2-4Weber St. (185.0)BSkyA86-80L0%0.0
2-9Montana St. (253.0)BSkyH69-63W100%0.0
2-11Montana (221.0)BSkyH59-76L0%0.0
2-18Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyA84-68L0%0.0
2-23Sacramento St. (293.0)BSkyA69-73W100%0.0
2-25Portland St. (268.0)BSkyA84-72L0%0.0
3-2Idaho (209.0)BSkyH75-77L0%0.0
3-4Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyH76-61W100%0.0
3-7Portland St. (268.0)BSkyN80-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern ArizonaBSky26.3526.3524.4624.46-13.46-13.46
Portland St.BSky5.645.6440.0040.00-1.13-1.13
North DakotaBSky4.204.2069.2369.231.611.61
Southern UtahBSky4.144.146.906.90-3.57-3.57
Sacramento St.BSky4.114.1137.0437.04-1.06-1.06
IdahoBSky4.044.0451.8551.850.150.15
Northern ColoradoBSky4.024.0232.0032.00-1.45-1.45
Eastern WashingtonBSky3.993.9965.5265.521.241.24
Weber St.BSky2.602.6055.1755.170.270.27
MontanaBSky2.502.5048.3948.39-0.08-0.08
Montana St.BSky2.492.4948.2848.28-0.09-0.09
Idaho St.BSky2.472.4710.3410.34-1.96-1.96
UC DavisBW1.811.8161.2961.290.410.41
Santa ClaraWCC1.781.7848.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.761.7666.6766.670.590.59
Tennessee St.OVC1.741.7451.8551.850.060.06
Jacksonville St.OVC1.701.7054.8454.840.160.16
Little RockSB1.671.6741.3841.38-0.29-0.29
Alabama St.SWAC1.671.6724.1424.14-0.86-0.86
UNLVMWC1.661.6632.2632.26-0.59-0.59
San DiegoWCC1.661.6637.9337.93-0.40-0.40
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
UTEPCUSA1.611.6146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
WashingtonP121.611.6126.6726.67-0.75-0.75
San FranciscoWCC0.350.3561.2961.290.080.08
Cal St. FullertonBW0.340.3451.7251.720.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.270.2726.6726.67-0.13-0.13
SeattleWAC0.260.2637.0437.04-0.07-0.07
Loyola MarymountWCC0.240.2448.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.240.2440.0040.00-0.05-0.05
PortlandWCC0.220.2229.0329.03-0.09-0.09
San Jose St.MWC0.210.2142.8642.86-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
BYUWCC0.190.1966.6766.670.060.06
UC RiversideBW0.190.1922.2222.22-0.10-0.10
ArizonaP120.170.1788.2488.240.130.13
Utah ValleyWAC0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.170.1783.3383.330.110.11
Arizona St.P120.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.160.1631.2531.25-0.06-0.06
ColoradoP120.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.160.1696.9796.970.150.15
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1460.7160.710.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.130.1318.5218.52-0.08-0.08
South DakotaSum0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
BelmontOVC0.130.1377.7877.780.070.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1329.4129.41-0.05-0.05
USCP120.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
TCUB120.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.130.1373.3373.330.060.06
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Cal PolyBW0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
StanfordP120.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1087.5087.500.080.08
Utah St.MWC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
WyomingMWC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
North FloridaASun0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.07-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
TroySB0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0844.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
RiceCUSA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
UCLAP120.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
UtahP120.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Green BayHorz0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
OregonP120.080.0884.8584.850.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
ButlerBE0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
OklahomaB120.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00