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Through games of Dec 5, 2016.


Northern Arizona

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:342.1
Current RPI:337
Expected SOS:324
Current SOS:289
Current Record:1-8
Expected Record:6-24
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-16
Current OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:342
Expected OOC SOS:301



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15257.00.01%
13-17298.20.04%
12-18306.30.23%
11-19316.20.95%
10-20324.12.77%
9-21331.35.93%
8-22336.712.53%
7-23341.017.70%
6-24344.121.58%
5-25346.218.36%
4-26347.712.36%
3-27348.85.66%
2-28349.51.67%
1-29349.90.20%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Santa Clara (249.7)WCCA67-64L0%0.0
11-12Tennessee St. (98.7)OVCN69-65L0%0.0
11-13UC Davis (257.2)BWN76-89L0%0.0
11-20Washington (106.9)P12A92-58L0%0.0
11-22UNLV (191.7)MWCA110-71L0%0.0
11-25Alabama St. (329.0)SWACN57-71W100%0.0
11-26Jacksonville St. (191.7)OVCN63-76L0%0.0
12-3San Diego (241.5)WCCH65-80L0%0.0
12-5Cal St. Bakersfield (121.1)WACH47-81L0%0.0
12-14Little Rock (151.0)SBH0-014%-12.9
12-17UTEP (290.4)CUSAA0-017%-11.3
12-20Illinois Chicago (241.5)HorzA0-011%-14.6
12-31Southern Utah (328.0)BSkyH0-048%-0.5
1-5North Dakota (230.3)BSkyA0-010%-15.7
1-7Northern Colorado (287.8)BSkyA0-019%-10.4
1-12Portland St. (280.0)BSkyH0-034%-5.1
1-14Sacramento St. (336.5)BSkyH0-054%1.1
1-19Eastern Washington (202.5)BSkyA0-012%-13.8
1-21Idaho (229.5)BSkyA0-011%-14.5
1-26Northern Colorado (287.8)BSkyH0-036%-4.2
1-28North Dakota (230.3)BSkyH0-022%-9.4
2-2Idaho St. (283.7)BSkyA0-020%-10.1
2-4Weber St. (211.3)BSkyA0-08%-16.9
2-9Montana St. (211.5)BSkyH0-020%-10.0
2-11Montana (240.8)BSkyH0-022%-9.3
2-18Southern Utah (328.0)BSkyH0-048%-0.5
2-23Sacramento St. (336.5)BSkyA0-033%-5.2
2-25Portland St. (280.0)BSkyA0-017%-11.3
3-2Idaho (229.5)BSkyH0-024%-8.3
3-4Eastern Washington (202.5)BSkyH0-026%-7.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern ArizonaBSky28.1926.3211.6318.71-21.63-16.48
Southern UtahBSky0.354.220.0023.09-0.35-2.27
Northern ColoradoBSky0.314.1616.6736.94-0.21-1.09
Sacramento St.BSky0.354.150.0019.67-0.35-2.52
Portland St.BSky0.004.1540.0041.93-0.00-0.67
North DakotaBSky0.354.1533.3353.15-0.120.26
IdahoBSky0.354.1150.0050.950.000.08
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.004.0671.4353.830.000.31
Weber St.BSky0.352.5416.6748.28-0.23-0.09
MontanaBSky0.002.5225.0047.79-0.00-0.11
Idaho St.BSky0.002.5212.5027.70-0.00-1.12
Montana St.BSky0.002.5242.8655.94-0.000.30
UC DavisBW6.261.8842.8643.54-0.89-0.24
Santa ClaraWCC6.301.8525.0030.10-3.15-0.73
Tennessee St.OVC6.211.8183.3368.444.140.67
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC5.561.8042.8663.05-0.790.47
Jacksonville St.OVC5.901.7642.8643.93-0.84-0.21
Little RockSB0.001.7366.6760.670.000.37
Alabama St.SWAC5.901.7314.2934.73-4.22-0.53
UNLVMWC5.561.7257.1441.470.79-0.29
San DiegoWCC5.561.7228.5728.70-2.38-0.73
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.001.6742.8643.69-0.00-0.21
UTEPCUSA0.001.6720.0033.88-0.00-0.54
WashingtonP125.561.6750.0050.300.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.3385.7153.730.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW1.440.3228.5733.59-0.62-0.11
SeattleWAC0.000.2916.6738.78-0.00-0.07
PepperdineWCC0.000.2642.8633.72-0.00-0.09
Washington St.P120.000.2642.8628.85-0.00-0.11
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2325.0046.05-0.00-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.310.2350.0040.950.00-0.04
DenverSum0.000.2142.8645.37-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.2062.5067.030.000.07
UC RiversideBW0.350.200.0031.64-0.35-0.07
PortlandWCC0.000.1857.1450.740.000.00
ArizonaP120.660.1875.0068.820.330.07
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1816.6738.62-0.00-0.04
ColoradoP120.000.1775.0062.390.000.04
PacificWCC0.000.1742.8646.37-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1657.1459.300.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.350.1662.5052.110.090.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1566.6756.740.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.350.1575.0069.430.170.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.350.150.0033.61-0.35-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1550.0051.000.000.00
Arizona St.P120.350.1562.5040.600.09-0.03
South DakotaSum0.000.1550.0046.970.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.350.1485.7176.970.250.08
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1485.7174.850.000.07
Western KentuckyCUSA1.440.1437.5034.91-0.36-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.000.14100.0092.290.000.12
TCUB121.840.14100.0061.161.840.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1320.0022.80-0.00-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1225.0040.38-0.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.1266.6758.230.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.1250.0064.320.000.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1225.0027.54-0.00-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1271.4360.370.000.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1125.0038.85-0.00-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1157.1453.600.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.1142.8641.75-0.00-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.1142.8650.26-0.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1137.5037.68-0.00-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.11100.0089.440.000.09
New MexicoMWC0.000.1162.5058.520.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.350.1160.0069.260.070.04
USCP120.350.11100.0076.430.350.06
WyomingMWC0.000.1166.6754.150.000.01
North FloridaASun0.350.1012.5035.01-0.26-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0920.0022.08-0.00-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0942.8658.06-0.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0942.8645.86-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.310.0937.5033.64-0.08-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0957.1450.090.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.350.0957.1472.470.050.04
UTSACUSA0.000.0925.0029.46-0.00-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.090.0023.86-0.00-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.000.0942.8647.13-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0925.0043.21-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0971.4363.370.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0916.6729.78-0.00-0.03
TroySB0.350.0942.8636.17-0.05-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.400.090.0038.15-0.40-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.310.0950.0054.480.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.350.0871.4358.010.150.01
UCLAP120.350.08100.0086.530.350.06
UtahP120.000.0875.0059.370.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0857.1448.420.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0877.7872.080.000.04
OregonP120.000.0875.0072.660.000.04
IowaB100.000.0744.4438.90-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0733.3352.72-0.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0662.5052.000.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0640.0054.40-0.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0666.6766.310.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0074.430.000.03
NebraskaB100.000.0657.1444.820.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0671.4347.980.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.010.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.400.0687.5076.180.300.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0633.3336.70-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.350.0625.0030.31-0.17-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0061.230.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0650.0042.070.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0642.8638.92-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0054.990.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0614.2935.75-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0616.6730.41-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0625.0020.75-0.00-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.350.0666.6740.560.12-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.710.0650.0046.010.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0633.3330.48-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0675.0070.650.000.02
DukeACC0.000.0688.8978.500.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0675.0051.170.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.11-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.57-0.00-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.43-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0616.6729.76-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0675.0066.390.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0625.0047.73-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0612.5030.38-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4356.410.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0628.5731.08-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0020.87-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0625.0031.92-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0642.8651.59-0.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.690.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0637.5052.01-0.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0614.2943.88-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.42-0.00-0.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0675.0066.180.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0614.2931.46-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0628.5723.79-0.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.690.0662.5056.380.170.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0640.0058.95-0.000.01
TexasB120.000.0657.1438.460.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0650.0066.260.000.02
TulsaAmer0.350.0650.0037.680.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.0687.5070.960.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0642.8637.81-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0685.7162.380.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0650.0057.680.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0022.65-0.00-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0020.36-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.350.0366.6766.700.120.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.15-0.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.400.0337.5044.24-0.10-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.070.000.01
LipscombASun0.400.0312.5033.13-0.30-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0371.4351.460.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0371.4354.930.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.63-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0048.000.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0320.0041.82-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0371.4367.900.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0342.8650.33-0.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.930.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0375.0054.510.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.350.0312.5031.17-0.26-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0371.4372.990.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.47-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6735.740.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.350.030.0019.63-0.35-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0371.4359.530.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.360.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.69-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0060.750.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0316.6744.42-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0312.5030.18-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0041.280.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.580.000.00
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.220.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.350.0360.0058.500.070.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0337.5050.86-0.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.350.0342.8637.07-0.05-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0350.0049.830.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0371.4370.390.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.470.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5061.690.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0344.4441.39-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.400.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7875.900.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0325.0023.16-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.400.0342.8663.37-0.060.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0043.19-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0387.5075.540.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0048.640.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.200.00-0.00