Northern Arizona

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	328.5
Current RPI:	332
Expected SOS:	268
Current SOS:	286
Current Record:	3-19
Expected Record:	4-23
Current Conf Record:	1-11
Expected Conf Record:	2-14
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-11
Current OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC RPI:	298
Expected OOC SOS:	250

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-19	293.0	0.02%
7-20	307.4	0.69%
6-21	316.2	8.94%
5-22	325.2	32.79%
4-23	331.5	41.90%
3-24	335.6	15.65%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Louisiana Lafayette (159.3)	SB	N	83-66	L	0%	0.0
11-12	San Francisco (152.1)	WCC	A	69-50	L	0%	0.0
11-13	North Dakota St. (125.0)	Sum	N	58-70	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Loyola Marymount (107.0)	WCC	A	81-61	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Brigham Young (44.9)	WCC	N	52-87	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Arizona (75.8)	P12	A	53-39	L	0%	0.0
12-7	Pepperdine (250.7)	WCC	H	40-49	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Cal St. Bakersfield (210.9)	ind	H	80-67	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Arizona St. (241.2)	P12	A	68-69	W	100%	0.0
12-20	Sam Houston St. (286.0)	Slnd	A	73-49	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Sacramento St. (305.2)	BSky	H	73-64	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Northern Colorado (251.5)	BSky	A	80-64	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Portland St. (207.8)	BSky	A	82-62	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Eastern Washington (210.5)	BSky	A	76-59	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Montana (101.6)	BSky	H	53-78	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Montana St. (261.8)	BSky	H	72-74	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Weber St. (84.1)	BSky	A	81-67	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Idaho St. (259.8)	BSky	A	78-62	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Sacramento St. (305.2)	BSky	A	77-43	L	0%	0.0
1-30	Northern Colorado (251.5)	BSky	H	62-64	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Eastern Washington (210.5)	BSky	H	68-74	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Portland St. (207.8)	BSky	H	65-76	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Weber St. (84.1)	BSky	H	0-0		10%	-13.8
2-11	Idaho St. (259.8)	BSky	H	0-0		41%	-2.4
2-18	UC Davis (342.2)	BW	H	0-0		62%	3.3
2-23	Montana (101.6)	BSky	A	0-0		2%	-21.9
2-27	Montana St. (261.8)	BSky	A	0-0		20%	-9.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Northern Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Northern Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Northern Arizona	BSky	26.61	26.46	13.00	14.56	-19.69	-18.76
Montana St.	BSky	3.30	4.76	42.11	37.73	-0.52	-1.17
Idaho St.	BSky	3.11	4.74	30.00	30.39	-1.24	-1.86
Sacramento St.	BSky	5.31	4.73	27.78	31.80	-2.36	-1.72
Portland St.	BSky	5.21	4.71	36.84	41.63	-1.37	-0.79
Eastern Washington	BSky	5.28	4.71	35.00	39.73	-1.58	-0.97
Montana	BSky	3.14	4.70	68.42	71.23	1.16	2.00
Weber St.	BSky	3.20	4.70	78.95	75.34	1.85	2.38
Northern Colorado	BSky	5.26	4.67	22.22	25.84	-2.92	-2.25
San Francisco	WCC	2.68	2.19	54.55	52.06	0.24	0.09
Pepperdine	WCC	2.68	2.18	28.57	31.28	-1.15	-0.82
Loyola Marymount	WCC	2.68	2.18	57.14	56.20	0.38	0.27
Brigham Young	WCC	2.53	2.12	73.91	75.15	1.21	1.07
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	2.60	2.09	50.00	49.71	0.00	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	2.48	2.05	31.82	32.52	-0.90	-0.72
UC Davis	BW	0.22	1.99	0.00	4.20	-0.22	-1.82
North Dakota St.	Sum	2.42	1.95	60.00	62.12	0.48	0.47
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	2.38	1.92	52.17	53.13	0.10	0.12
Arizona	P12	2.32	1.91	65.22	67.51	0.71	0.67
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	2.27	1.85	22.22	27.09	-1.26	-0.85
St. Mary's	WCC	0.46	0.40	90.91	87.74	0.38	0.30
Seattle	ind	0.32	0.37	23.53	33.28	-0.17	-0.12
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.36	0.37	65.00	66.70	0.11	0.12
San Diego	WCC	0.30	0.37	33.33	33.82	-0.10	-0.12
Utah	P12	0.31	0.36	18.18	15.01	-0.20	-0.25
Gonzaga	WCC	0.40	0.36	81.82	81.49	0.26	0.23
Idaho	WAC	0.27	0.34	47.62	51.08	-0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.31	0.33	21.74	21.70	-0.17	-0.19
San Jose St.	WAC	0.21	0.31	27.27	26.95	-0.10	-0.14
North Dakota	GWC	0.33	0.31	33.33	41.31	-0.11	-0.05
Washington St.	P12	0.37	0.29	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.30	0.29	54.55	56.79	0.03	0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.21	0.27	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.33	0.27	76.19	70.73	0.17	0.11
Santa Clara	WCC	0.20	0.26	28.57	26.30	-0.09	-0.13
Pacific	BW	0.15	0.23	35.00	37.47	-0.04	-0.06
Oregon St.	P12	0.31	0.23	63.64	63.16	0.08	0.06
Oregon	P12	0.36	0.22	69.57	64.53	0.14	0.07
Southern Utah	Sum	0.17	0.20	45.45	44.30	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.31	0.20	69.57	68.90	0.12	0.08
Denver	SB	0.27	0.20	70.83	72.23	0.11	0.09
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.20	35.00	35.26	-0.02	-0.06
Hawaii	WAC	0.15	0.20	57.14	53.12	0.02	0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.16	0.17	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.16	0.17	81.82	81.03	0.10	0.10
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.15	0.17	21.05	22.46	-0.09	-0.09
Nevada	WAC	0.15	0.17	80.95	76.42	0.10	0.09
Colorado	P12	0.15	0.16	66.67	62.65	0.05	0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.17	0.14	66.67	60.80	0.06	0.03
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.14	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.07
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.22	0.14	41.18	42.61	-0.04	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.17	0.14	59.09	54.70	0.03	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.14	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.16	0.13	26.32	28.83	-0.07	-0.06
Utah Valley	GWC	0.17	0.13	54.55	57.69	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.13	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.06
California	P12	0.15	0.13	75.00	74.61	0.08	0.06
North Texas	SB	0.16	0.13	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Southern California	P12	0.10	0.12	25.00	25.13	-0.05	-0.06
Washington	P12	0.10	0.12	69.57	66.54	0.04	0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.11	0.11	27.78	29.87	-0.05	-0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.10	73.91	75.49	0.05	0.05
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.17	0.10	57.14	60.75	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.16	0.10	48.00	50.21	-0.01	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.10	55.56	58.01	0.01	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.10	0.09	69.57	68.29	0.04	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.11	0.07	73.91	68.43	0.05	0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.07	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.11	0.07	79.17	75.98	0.07	0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.07	62.50	61.50	0.03	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.11	0.07	47.62	47.18	-0.01	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.07	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.11	0.07	34.78	37.24	-0.03	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.11	0.07	35.00	35.31	-0.03	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.07	34.78	35.50	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.07	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.07	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.11	0.07	80.77	80.75	0.07	0.04
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.07	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.07	18.18	21.13	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.07	19.05	24.61	-0.03	-0.03
Texas St.	Slnd	0.06	0.07	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.07	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.07	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.11	0.07	25.00	23.75	-0.05	-0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.07	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.11	0.07	42.86	43.45	-0.02	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.07	20.00	19.96	-0.06	-0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.07	25.00	37.58	-0.05	-0.02
Fresno St.	WAC	0.10	0.07	39.13	44.52	-0.02	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.10	0.06	83.33	84.76	0.07	0.05
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.06	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.06	37.50	38.33	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.06	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.05
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.61	0.01	0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.06	8.33	10.86	-0.04	-0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.06	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	85.71	78.05	0.03	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.03	81.82	80.43	0.04	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.03	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.03	82.61	81.44	0.03	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.03	37.50	41.54	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	55.00	54.48	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.01
Samford	SC	0.06	0.03	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.03	27.78	29.58	-0.03	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.06	0.03	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.06	0.03	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.03	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.00	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.00	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.03	35.00	39.38	-0.02	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.03	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.03	14.29	17.17	-0.04	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.03	90.48	87.91	0.04	0.03
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.05	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	100.00	94.55	0.05	0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.03	90.91	83.85	0.04	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.03	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.02	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.03	25.00	28.52	-0.02	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.03	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.01	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	35.00	40.78	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.03	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.05	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	73.97	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.03	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.03	85.71	82.18	0.04	0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.03	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01