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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Northern Arizona

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:212.3
Current RPI:230
Expected SOS:289
Current SOS:239
Current Record:4-6
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-7
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:205
Expected OOC SOS:213



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-679.00.01%
22-8102.30.09%
21-9113.90.40%
20-10129.01.39%
19-11144.73.67%
18-12161.68.24%
17-13179.413.70%
16-14197.218.46%
15-15216.618.68%
14-16236.515.33%
13-17255.510.45%
12-18273.36.00%
11-19289.42.50%
10-20302.00.88%
9-21313.80.16%
8-22323.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Xavier (22.1)BEA93-60L0%0.0
11-16Toledo (104.9)MACA71-58L0%0.0
11-20Fresno St. (258.3)MWCH73-52W100%0.0
11-23Mississippi (98.8)SECA80-74L0%0.0
11-25Middle Tennessee (203.3)CUSAA65-53L0%0.0
11-28Southern (308.3)SWACN70-63W100%0.0
11-29North Carolina Central (148.9)MEACN36-40L0%0.0
12-3UTSA (263.1)CUSAH83-88L0%0.0
12-13Loyola Marymount (257.8)WCCH71-69W100%0.0
12-16Saint Mary's (115.0)WCCA71-73W100%0.0
12-19Norfolk St. (178.5)MEACA0-033%-5.0
12-21Hampton (246.4)MEACA0-043%-2.1
1-1Sacramento St. (258.9)BSkyA0-048%-0.6
1-3Portland St. (270.4)BSkyA0-053%0.9
1-10Southern Utah (317.4)BSkyH0-085%12.3
1-15Weber St. (246.4)BSkyH0-071%6.6
1-17Idaho St. (299.2)BSkyH0-078%8.9
1-22Montana (163.2)BSkyA0-028%-7.0
1-24Montana St. (290.7)BSkyA0-057%2.1
1-31Southern Utah (317.4)BSkyA0-062%3.5
2-5Northern Colorado (178.5)BSkyH0-055%1.6
2-7North Dakota (272.7)BSkyH0-082%10.7
2-12Idaho St. (299.2)BSkyA0-051%0.2
2-14Weber St. (246.4)BSkyA0-043%-2.2
2-19Idaho (225.1)BSkyH0-065%4.5
2-21Eastern Washington (58.5)BSkyH0-031%-6.0
2-26North Dakota (272.7)BSkyA0-057%2.0
2-28Northern Colorado (178.5)BSkyA0-027%-7.1
3-5Portland St. (270.4)BSkyH0-079%9.7
3-7Sacramento St. (258.9)BSkyH0-076%8.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern ArizonaBSky27.8926.3342.8653.88-3.982.04
Southern UtahBSky0.364.2216.6727.65-0.24-1.89
North DakotaBSky0.004.1325.0032.93-0.00-1.41
Sacramento St.BSky0.004.1342.8642.66-0.00-0.61
Northern ColoradoBSky0.004.1328.5757.15-0.000.59
Portland St.BSky0.004.1250.0042.510.00-0.62
Idaho St.BSky0.004.0714.2933.13-0.00-1.37
Weber St.BSky0.004.0628.5742.10-0.00-0.64
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.002.5266.6777.320.001.38
IdahoBSky0.002.5237.5050.39-0.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.002.5222.2228.18-0.00-1.10
MontanaBSky0.002.5225.0051.31-0.000.07
UTSACUSA5.001.7633.3335.25-1.67-0.52
HamptonMEAC0.001.7640.0050.08-0.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.001.7650.0055.980.000.21
Saint Mary'sWCC5.001.7383.3359.213.330.32
Middle TennesseeCUSA5.311.7337.5043.76-1.33-0.22
Loyola MarymountWCC5.001.7328.5724.34-2.14-0.89
North Carolina CentralMEAC5.001.7237.5068.92-1.250.65
SouthernSWAC5.531.720.0035.05-5.53-0.51
MississippiSEC5.311.7066.6751.031.770.03
Fresno St.MWC5.001.6733.3330.87-1.67-0.64
ToledoMAC5.001.6755.5658.070.560.27
XavierBE5.001.6777.7869.992.780.67
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.4233.3340.31-0.00-0.08
PortlandWCC0.000.2866.6748.410.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.2550.0053.850.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.670.2475.0068.680.330.09
PacificWCC0.000.2150.0038.180.00-0.05
WyomingMWC0.000.2177.7873.370.000.10
BYUWCC0.000.1866.6767.300.000.06
GonzagaWCC0.000.1890.0090.940.000.15
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.180.0012.36-0.00-0.14
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1862.5054.970.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.1855.5650.970.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1818.1835.99-0.00-0.05
CreightonBE1.160.1772.7351.560.530.01
UC RiversideBW0.310.1642.8643.10-0.04-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.250.1510.0030.45-0.20-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.920.1537.5046.78-0.23-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.15100.0078.050.000.08
PepperdineWCC0.250.1575.0058.430.130.03
San DiegoWCC0.250.1554.5557.300.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1555.5656.400.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.310.1572.7367.750.140.05
HowardMEAC0.280.1530.0043.91-0.11-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.1237.5046.50-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1244.4455.75-0.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1250.0040.880.00-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.360.1237.5041.20-0.09-0.02
Washington St.P120.360.1240.0028.86-0.07-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1220.0038.24-0.00-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1220.0034.08-0.00-0.04
NevadaMWC0.000.1211.1125.02-0.00-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.120.0023.15-0.00-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1218.1828.02-0.00-0.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1225.0033.17-0.00-0.04
OregonP120.500.1266.6758.060.170.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1242.8627.08-0.00-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.120.0014.79-0.00-0.08
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1240.0046.73-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.1270.0058.600.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1233.3362.92-0.000.03
UTEPCUSA0.250.1266.6772.670.080.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1211.1144.62-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.1280.0064.110.000.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1150.0032.620.00-0.04
MarquetteBE0.000.1155.5647.870.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.810.1177.7869.190.450.04
USCP120.310.0960.0036.120.06-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0920.0028.20-0.00-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.360.0971.4359.920.150.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0985.7161.020.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.360.0936.3664.92-0.100.03
UNLVMWC0.000.0975.0050.750.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0955.5654.950.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0942.8636.79-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0916.6726.28-0.00-0.04
CaliforniaP120.250.0990.0066.690.200.03
DenverSum0.360.0950.0054.230.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0930.0028.50-0.00-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0918.1844.62-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.280.0941.6744.33-0.05-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0910.0018.01-0.00-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0920.0029.81-0.00-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0936.3644.53-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.310.0977.7864.730.170.03
FIUCUSA0.000.0944.4451.04-0.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0950.0052.710.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0930.0037.28-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0028.26-0.00-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.250.0955.5649.500.03-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.090.0016.85-0.00-0.06
St. John'sBE0.000.0887.5065.040.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0862.5059.510.000.02
AkronMAC0.280.0860.0056.560.060.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0844.4436.35-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0023.71-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0616.6719.68-0.00-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0636.3638.88-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6758.240.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8655.64-0.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0666.6764.310.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0655.5638.600.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0660.0037.220.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0677.7867.290.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0644.4445.59-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0610.0027.42-0.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.590.0633.3338.99-0.20-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0627.2738.97-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0620.0019.99-0.00-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0690.0078.050.000.03
UtahP120.000.0677.7879.480.000.04
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0660.0064.610.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0625.0038.92-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0688.8981.310.000.04
Cal PolyBW0.610.0642.8638.75-0.09-0.01
IUPUISum0.250.0620.0026.33-0.15-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.310.0644.4447.53-0.03-0.00
TCUB120.250.06100.0066.180.250.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0031.74-0.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.870.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.008.88-0.00-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.41-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0670.0072.830.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.007.84-0.00-0.05
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0094.790.000.05
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0675.0060.400.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.530.0555.5661.790.060.01
AlabamaSEC0.250.0566.6754.660.080.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0577.7871.960.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0528.5736.95-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0580.0072.550.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0585.7170.350.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.0560.0034.110.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0571.4363.410.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0560.0064.930.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0566.6759.460.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0571.4361.370.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.500.0540.0050.07-0.100.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0550.0039.340.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.250.0544.4431.58-0.03-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0572.7353.260.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0590.0067.260.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0082.080.000.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0562.5054.980.000.01
Arizona St.P120.310.0360.0053.820.060.00
DavidsonA100.000.0387.5077.020.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4363.890.000.01
MarylandB100.280.0390.9167.660.230.01
MemphisAmer0.280.0355.5659.990.030.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0333.3334.28-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.280.0370.0071.630.110.01
StanfordP120.310.0375.0057.570.160.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.360.0325.0028.68-0.18-0.01
Texas St.SB0.360.0350.0050.330.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0337.5031.95-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0387.5085.320.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.630.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0366.6757.860.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0074.000.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0370.0071.330.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0071.820.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1461.670.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0065.400.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0337.5034.19-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3342.19-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.250.0337.5038.60-0.06-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.250.0377.7871.110.140.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.830.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0377.7878.540.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.0372.7365.930.000.01
IowaB100.000.0372.7362.590.000.01
Iowa St.B120.310.0388.8963.800.240.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0370.0060.790.000.01
MaristMAAC0.250.0310.0018.61-0.20-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0337.5037.96-0.00-0.01
NJITind0.000.0336.3640.98-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0327.2737.85-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0336.3647.13-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0322.2240.44-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6757.800.000.00
Texas TechB120.250.0388.8955.910.190.00
TulaneAmer0.310.0387.5054.790.230.00
UCLAP120.000.0372.7357.280.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0360.0064.620.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0085.310.000.02
BelmontOVC0.280.0360.0062.970.060.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0344.4451.58-0.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.280.0388.8963.660.220.01
South AlabamaSB0.280.030.0036.67-0.28-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.250.0333.3345.50-0.08-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0322.2230.99-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0067.580.000.01
BucknellPat0.250.0340.0036.29-0.05-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0069.120.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.250.0342.8649.98-0.04-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.250.030.0011.40-0.25-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.250.0333.3349.71-0.08-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.250.0357.1470.590.040.01
DaytonA100.000.0377.7870.120.000.01
DetroitHorz0.250.0344.4448.88-0.03-0.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.140.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0375.0071.730.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0325.0049.09-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.250.0330.0031.57-0.10-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0342.8638.11-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.250.0330.0039.44-0.10-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0362.5064.260.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.250.0366.6777.690.080.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0377.7865.390.000.01
TroySB0.250.0333.3339.46-0.08-0.01
VCUA100.250.0370.0071.420.100.01