live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Northern Arizona

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:325.6
Current RPI:320
Expected SOS:166
Current SOS:151
Current Record:2-19
Expected Record:3-24
Current Conf Record:2-10
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-11
Current OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC RPI:268
Expected OOC SOS:4



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-20274.00.01%
6-21291.00.74%
5-22306.06.64%
4-23319.127.78%
3-24329.046.52%
2-25335.418.30%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Washington St. (186.2)P12A82-70L0%0.0
11-16Boise St. (98.3)MWCA101-81L0%0.0
11-18Gonzaga (48.7)WCCA91-52L0%0.0
11-30Norfolk St. (207.6)MEACH66-70L0%0.0
12-2Hampton (195.7)MEACH94-98L0%0.0
12-5Cal St. Bakersfield (144.1)WACA72-55L0%0.0
12-16Arizona (27.2)P12A92-37L0%0.0
12-20Arkansas Little Rock (55.4)SBA84-57L0%0.0
12-22Tulsa (55.7)AmerA90-55L0%0.0
12-31Montana (145.3)BSkyH84-90L0%0.0
1-2Montana St. (252.0)BSkyH72-74L0%0.0
1-9Southern Utah (335.8)BSkyA63-73W100%0.0
1-14Idaho (222.5)BSkyA83-76L0%0.0
1-16Eastern Washington (201.4)BSkyA96-73L0%0.0
1-21North Dakota (219.7)BSkyH59-101L0%0.0
1-23Northern Colorado (310.7)BSkyH79-84L0%0.0
1-28Weber St. (139.2)BSkyA76-66L0%0.0
1-30Idaho St. (266.1)BSkyA88-66L0%0.0
2-4Eastern Washington (201.4)BSkyH73-84L0%0.0
2-6Idaho (222.5)BSkyH72-70W100%0.0
2-11Montana St. (252.0)BSkyA101-58L0%0.0
2-13Montana (145.3)BSkyA0-04%-19.4
2-18Idaho St. (266.1)BSkyH0-030%-5.8
2-20Weber St. (139.2)BSkyH0-08%-15.6
2-27Southern Utah (335.8)BSkyH0-063%3.7
3-3Portland St. (289.0)BSkyA0-012%-12.8
3-5Sacramento St. (255.0)BSkyA0-010%-13.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern ArizonaBSky26.4426.3610.5312.15-20.88-19.95
IdahoBSky5.534.6557.1455.730.790.53
Southern UtahBSky3.254.6415.0014.64-2.28-3.28
MontanaBSky3.024.5757.8959.750.480.89
Idaho St.BSky2.834.5445.0045.19-0.28-0.44
Montana St.BSky5.204.5238.1040.75-1.24-0.84
Weber St.BSky2.784.5165.0067.710.831.60
Eastern WashingtonBSky5.324.5150.0052.130.000.19
Portland St.BSky0.822.9230.0033.92-0.33-0.94
Northern ColoradoBSky3.202.8523.8123.72-1.68-1.50
Sacramento St.BSky0.712.8540.0043.48-0.14-0.37
North DakotaBSky3.202.8542.1146.05-0.51-0.22
Washington St.P122.692.1131.8229.20-0.98-0.88
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC2.592.0165.0066.370.780.66
ArizonaP122.642.0178.2677.571.491.11
GonzagaWCC2.541.9878.2676.701.441.06
Boise St.MWC2.541.9859.0959.020.460.36
Arkansas Little RockSB2.531.9585.7183.661.811.31
Norfolk St.MEAC2.441.9240.9148.87-0.44-0.04
HamptonMEAC2.431.9257.1459.790.350.38
TulsaAmer2.441.8865.2263.490.740.51
Utah ValleyWAC0.330.3433.3334.95-0.11-0.10
San Jose St.MWC0.420.3323.8122.86-0.22-0.18
PortlandWCC0.260.3038.4638.04-0.06-0.07
SeattleWAC0.270.2447.6245.02-0.01-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.280.2460.8759.830.060.05
DenverSum0.280.2352.0049.300.01-0.00
UtahP120.170.2370.8368.520.070.08
WyomingMWC0.320.2343.4842.54-0.04-0.03
WashingtonP120.260.2362.5060.140.070.05
San FranciscoWCC0.270.2052.1749.150.01-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.220.2047.6249.28-0.01-0.00
PacificWCC0.210.1923.8125.99-0.11-0.09
Arizona St.P120.210.1954.1751.700.020.01
USCP120.260.1978.2673.130.150.09
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.1714.2915.44-0.08-0.12
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1719.0525.90-0.07-0.08
Saint Mary'sWCC0.160.1781.8281.780.100.11
UC DavisBW0.160.1638.1035.34-0.04-0.05
UNLVMWC0.160.1652.1755.070.010.02
NevadaMWC0.160.1657.1455.360.020.02
ColoradoP120.210.1670.8365.580.090.05
UCLAP120.200.1656.5253.400.030.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1482.6181.130.070.09
South DakotaSum0.160.1444.0043.56-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.160.1458.3360.900.030.03
HowardMEAC0.110.1336.3638.97-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1373.9174.640.050.07
BYUWCC0.110.1368.0070.260.040.05
SMUAmer0.150.1386.9682.920.110.08
TroySB0.210.1322.7324.38-0.12-0.07
StanfordP120.050.1347.6244.06-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.110.1082.6179.200.070.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.1033.3330.63-0.02-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.109.0912.26-0.00-0.08
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.1031.8230.08-0.02-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.160.1043.4843.77-0.02-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1025.0028.15-0.05-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1014.2920.64-0.08-0.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.160.1045.4549.05-0.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.160.1012.0011.95-0.12-0.07
Fresno St.MWC0.160.1063.6461.550.040.02
Colorado St.MWC0.160.1054.5552.530.010.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.1058.3358.580.030.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.1041.6741.18-0.03-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.100.1058.3360.710.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1069.5770.090.040.04
Texas St.SB0.110.1040.0038.88-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.160.0925.0029.89-0.08-0.04
OregonP120.100.0979.1777.200.060.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.0933.3332.04-0.05-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.100.0972.0071.570.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.100.0970.8370.130.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.150.0941.6739.49-0.03-0.02
Oregon St.P120.100.0963.6458.760.030.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0966.6764.780.020.03
Chicago St.WAC0.110.074.357.72-0.10-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0765.2268.600.020.03
UMKCWAC0.110.0728.5732.75-0.05-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.110.0745.8341.63-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.060.0770.8369.000.020.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0750.0049.320.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.060.0738.4638.50-0.01-0.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0713.0412.96-0.04-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.110.0756.0055.450.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.0731.8236.11-0.04-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.0725.0025.08-0.05-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.0729.1733.75-0.04-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.0729.1733.11-0.04-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.0725.0033.23-0.05-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.110.0772.2274.700.050.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.0738.1037.67-0.03-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.0752.1754.130.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0747.6249.39-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.110.0761.9058.170.030.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0720.8323.28-0.03-0.04
LamarSlnd0.060.0730.0029.13-0.02-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.060.0747.8350.89-0.000.00
PittsburghACC0.110.0772.7367.600.050.02
Western CarolinaSC0.110.0731.8234.54-0.04-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0640.9138.82-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.100.0656.5257.060.010.01
DePaulBE0.110.0633.3334.02-0.04-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0642.8641.34-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0655.0053.670.010.00
HawaiiBW0.100.0685.0083.440.070.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0660.0062.250.010.02
North TexasCUSA0.100.0631.8232.46-0.04-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.0660.0057.650.020.01
SamfordSC0.100.0640.0041.68-0.02-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0630.4328.20-0.02-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.110.0636.3636.29-0.03-0.02
SyracuseACC0.100.0668.0064.090.040.02
UC IrvineBW0.100.0669.5770.020.040.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0668.1871.350.020.03
UTEPCUSA0.100.0654.1754.200.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.100.0650.0049.480.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.100.0663.6461.470.030.01
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0686.9680.420.070.04
HoustonAmer0.100.0670.8367.980.040.02
TempleAmer0.050.0665.2262.370.020.02
TulaneAmer0.100.0636.0034.84-0.03-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0650.0044.650.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0450.0045.770.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.060.0431.5831.68-0.02-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0450.0052.870.000.00
Kansas St.B120.060.0458.3356.290.010.00
WisconsinB100.060.0462.5057.000.010.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0430.4332.26-0.02-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0329.1731.19-0.02-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0352.9452.100.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0318.1821.11-0.03-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0316.6719.49-0.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0368.1867.110.020.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0366.6763.780.020.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0340.0042.85-0.01-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0324.0024.16-0.03-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0323.0825.87-0.03-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0343.4837.80-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0360.8755.980.010.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0372.0073.080.020.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0380.0081.560.030.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0342.3146.12-0.01-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0331.8235.12-0.02-0.01
OklahomaB120.050.0386.9682.620.040.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0358.3363.180.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0375.0075.340.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.18-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0360.8755.310.010.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0360.8760.670.010.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0358.3359.310.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0337.5037.41-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.8342.30-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0341.6742.39-0.01-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0320.0019.73-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.700.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0347.8351.92-0.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0333.3330.28-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0317.6526.67-0.03-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0372.0069.130.020.01