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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


North Carolina A&T

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:332.0
Current RPI:338
Expected SOS:325
Current SOS:238
Current Record:0-12
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:0-2
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-11
Current OOC Record:0-10
Expected OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC RPI:331
Expected OOC SOS:143



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16259.00.04%
12-17272.10.18%
11-18291.41.17%
10-19305.44.53%
9-20317.310.70%
8-21326.419.27%
7-22333.723.25%
6-23339.420.70%
5-24343.512.71%
4-25346.65.47%
3-26348.41.68%
2-27349.50.24%
1-28350.40.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina A&T.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17USC Upstate (165.3)ASunH46-63L0%0.0
11-19Northern Kentucky (216.9)ASunA68-55L0%0.0
11-23Bradley (262.1)MVCA58-50L0%0.0
11-25Saint Louis (262.7)A10A57-54L0%0.0
11-28Radford (177.6)BSthN57-65L0%0.0
11-29Mississippi Valley St. (347.0)SWACN66-63L0%0.0
12-4USC Upstate (165.3)ASunA65-54L0%0.0
12-6Howard (273.4)MEACA54-47L0%0.0
12-8Maryland Eastern Shore (247.5)MEACA69-58L0%0.0
12-14Old Dominion (43.7)CUSAA85-48L0%0.0
12-17Ohio St. (14.5)B10A97-55L0%0.0
12-19Kent St. (138.4)MACA71-57L0%0.0
12-30South Carolina (39.3)SECA0-00%-30.5
1-3Cal St. Bakersfield (323.0)WACH0-043%-1.9
1-10Savannah St. (319.3)MEACH0-070%6.1
1-12South Carolina St. (280.6)MEACH0-058%2.2
1-17Hampton (250.4)MEACA0-016%-11.5
1-19Norfolk St. (159.2)MEACA0-08%-16.2
1-24Delaware St. (243.1)MEACH0-046%-1.3
1-26Coppin St. (334.0)MEACH0-079%9.4
1-31Savannah St. (319.3)MEACA0-042%-2.2
2-4Charlotte (85.6)CUSAA0-03%-22.4
2-7North Carolina Central (142.9)MEACH0-017%-11.4
2-14Florida A&M (349.1)MEACA0-063%4.0
2-16Bethune Cookman (338.6)MEACA0-037%-3.9
2-23Morgan St. (305.7)MEACH0-049%-0.1
2-28Florida A&M (349.1)MEACH0-085%12.3
3-2Bethune Cookman (338.6)MEACH0-065%4.5
3-5North Carolina Central (142.9)MEACA0-05%-19.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina A&T's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina A&T's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina A&T.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina A&TMEAC27.8826.180.0023.50-27.88-13.87
Florida A&MMEAC0.384.120.0010.93-0.38-3.22
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.564.0850.0069.800.001.61
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.004.0318.1829.41-0.00-1.66
Savannah St.MEAC0.004.0218.1826.06-0.00-1.93
USC UpstateASun8.333.6055.5664.590.931.05
HamptonMEAC0.002.3645.4548.40-0.00-0.08
South Carolina St.MEAC0.002.3527.2735.10-0.00-0.70
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC4.382.3333.3342.76-1.46-0.34
HowardMEAC4.402.3222.2241.66-2.44-0.39
Norfolk St.MEAC0.002.3054.5558.410.000.39
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.3036.3646.44-0.00-0.16
Morgan St.MEAC0.002.3016.6734.75-0.00-0.70
Coppin St.MEAC0.002.290.0013.74-0.00-1.66
Northern KentuckyASun4.171.8525.0040.95-2.08-0.34
CharlotteCUSA0.001.8154.5562.970.000.47
Old DominionCUSA4.331.8188.8981.703.371.15
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.171.790.0014.36-4.17-1.27
RadfordBSth4.381.7550.0057.120.000.25
Saint LouisA104.401.7555.5630.970.49-0.67
BradleyMVC4.381.7525.0031.68-2.19-0.64
South CarolinaSEC0.001.7566.6764.820.000.52
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.001.7216.6732.53-0.00-0.60
Kent St.MAC4.171.7271.4356.661.790.23
Ohio St.B104.171.7280.0081.662.501.09
StetsonASun0.000.3710.0027.17-0.00-0.17
North FloridaASun0.000.3450.0057.820.000.05
JacksonvilleASun0.000.3110.0018.05-0.00-0.20
Kennesaw St.ASun0.260.2233.3328.79-0.09-0.09
MarshallCUSA0.000.2022.2236.53-0.00-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1977.7870.160.000.08
LipscombASun0.000.1922.2238.44-0.00-0.04
WinthropBSth0.000.1825.0044.27-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1836.3645.11-0.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.380.1844.4450.41-0.040.00
North TexasCUSA0.190.1742.8636.81-0.03-0.05
MemphisAmer0.610.1660.0062.070.120.04
MarylandB100.380.1690.9168.230.310.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.780.1544.4437.40-0.09-0.04
Miami FLACC0.210.1581.8266.010.130.05
IndianaB100.190.1581.8263.330.120.04
UMKCWAC0.000.1320.0040.84-0.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1236.3648.28-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.380.1255.5635.900.04-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1250.0068.770.000.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1233.3361.74-0.000.03
High PointBSth0.190.1266.6761.790.060.03
LSUSEC0.210.1280.0063.910.120.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.210.1233.3340.63-0.07-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.1260.0056.150.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1216.6743.20-0.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.230.1266.6764.770.080.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1214.2944.44-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.650.1260.0057.700.130.02
TowsonCAA0.000.1260.0047.170.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.1225.0037.03-0.00-0.03
FordhamA100.160.1228.5727.11-0.07-0.05
NJITind0.000.1241.6743.68-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.470.1254.5544.930.04-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.860.1233.3334.30-0.29-0.04
DuquesneA100.210.1237.5034.06-0.05-0.04
VCUA100.370.1172.7375.740.170.06
RiceCUSA0.000.1116.6726.98-0.00-0.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1150.0051.710.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.1191.6755.310.000.01
IUPUISum0.210.0927.2728.86-0.09-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0957.1470.520.000.04
Georgia TechACC0.380.0980.0053.260.230.01
North CarolinaACC0.190.0972.7374.850.090.05
Wright St.Horz0.380.0960.0057.890.080.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0963.6461.520.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0955.5648.710.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.230.0963.6440.190.06-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.210.0937.5050.31-0.050.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0925.0035.39-0.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0977.7872.060.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.190.09100.0084.930.190.06
TulaneAmer0.190.0988.8955.860.150.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0980.0072.200.000.04
ClemsonACC0.000.0960.0043.890.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0962.5059.050.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.260.0975.0058.760.130.02
IllinoisB100.000.0975.0065.140.000.03
James MadisonCAA0.420.0963.6455.660.110.01
TCUB120.650.09100.0067.700.650.03
CampbellBSth0.190.0925.0043.93-0.09-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.210.0960.0061.600.040.02
Indiana St.MVC0.210.0930.0029.75-0.08-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0990.9183.090.000.06
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0966.6758.210.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.210.0987.5085.480.160.06
NorthwesternB100.190.0963.6442.810.05-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0962.5041.790.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.390.0960.0038.030.08-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0930.0028.65-0.00-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.190.0942.8633.27-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0966.6773.310.000.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0918.1837.71-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0950.0040.450.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.160.0933.3341.20-0.05-0.02
George MasonA100.210.0933.3330.21-0.07-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0027.67-0.00-0.04
IowaB100.000.0966.6759.420.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0920.0052.97-0.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.380.0636.3637.85-0.10-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0670.0064.680.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.0675.0052.140.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0671.4363.770.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0640.0043.04-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.230.0637.5052.01-0.060.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.260.0645.4543.23-0.02-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0642.8649.51-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0011.59-0.00-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3349.35-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0037.570.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0025.85-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.008.60-0.00-0.05
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3343.83-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0630.0038.57-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.060.008.56-0.00-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0675.0066.220.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6754.470.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0670.0076.180.000.03
OregonP120.000.0670.0057.440.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0086.080.000.04
Morehead St.OVC0.420.0616.6737.21-0.28-0.02
NebraskaB100.230.0666.6744.720.08-0.01
WisconsinB100.230.0690.9188.840.190.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.210.0670.0059.660.080.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0650.0043.310.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.210.0657.1457.100.030.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6754.130.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0654.5548.490.00-0.00
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.240.000.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.140.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0677.7870.890.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0620.0027.29-0.00-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.230.0685.7170.530.170.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0618.1819.46-0.00-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0633.3337.91-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.260.0618.1820.86-0.17-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0096.290.000.06
MercerSC0.000.0644.4444.02-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0633.3337.22-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0058.370.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0655.5655.280.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0637.5056.46-0.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0642.8637.71-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0654.5557.570.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0630.0043.15-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0655.5646.290.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0015.00-0.00-0.04
The CitadelSC0.000.0614.2932.16-0.00-0.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0680.0073.540.000.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0645.4545.10-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.230.0670.0059.220.090.01
UMBCAE0.370.0618.1825.30-0.23-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.0637.5046.38-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0637.5034.64-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0690.0065.480.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0680.0069.770.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.0688.8977.320.000.03
ElonCAA0.000.0644.4451.07-0.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0642.8649.02-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6765.500.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0672.7367.520.000.02
MarquetteBE0.190.0660.0048.980.04-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0650.0047.880.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0642.8626.99-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0677.7865.110.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0630.0036.69-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0660.0071.280.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0637.5035.74-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0028.43-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3362.72-0.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.009.06-0.00-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.10-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0666.6759.370.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0034.33-0.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.230.0340.0049.39-0.05-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.230.0360.0076.250.050.02
West VirginiaB120.230.0390.9170.080.190.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0314.2915.15-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0390.9169.030.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0350.0058.070.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0345.4555.13-0.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0327.2729.17-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0366.6762.580.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0311.1128.88-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0391.6777.120.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.210.0366.6755.670.070.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0350.0042.090.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0372.7372.580.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0350.0054.170.000.00
SienaMAAC0.230.0333.3349.54-0.08-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0031.89-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0327.2738.30-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0390.0055.360.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0354.5548.260.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0075.440.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.0363.6463.240.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.260.0342.8637.83-0.04-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0350.0039.790.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0330.0041.69-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0363.6465.220.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0360.0069.200.000.01
KansasB120.000.0390.0070.680.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0370.0052.600.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0340.0032.26-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0388.8963.020.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0337.5032.63-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3341.02-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.230.0330.0039.59-0.09-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0336.3648.18-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0360.0058.120.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6456.430.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0370.0061.320.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.230.0355.5655.710.030.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0345.4537.60-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0355.5652.610.000.00
YaleIvy0.260.0366.6761.820.090.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0318.1822.49-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.210.0362.5072.070.050.01
La SalleA100.000.0354.5552.730.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0330.0038.01-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0354.5552.490.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0053.250.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0043.160.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0362.5058.080.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.210.0312.5026.89-0.16-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.210.0357.1455.330.030.00
VermontAE0.000.0344.4457.69-0.000.00
BucknellPat0.160.0340.0036.66-0.03-0.01
ColgatePat0.190.0320.0042.59-0.11-0.00
DetroitHorz0.160.0340.0048.02-0.03-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6767.300.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0380.0067.830.000.01
NavyPat0.160.0320.0022.16-0.10-0.02
Oregon St.P120.190.0377.7856.220.110.00
RutgersB100.000.0354.5532.590.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.190.0355.5660.980.020.01
St. Francis PANEC0.160.0355.5665.210.020.01
UMass LowellAE0.190.0350.0050.490.000.00
VillanovaBE0.160.03100.0082.970.160.02