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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


North Carolina A&T

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:340.0
Current RPI:340
Expected SOS:348
Current SOS:348
Current Record:10-21
Expected Record:10-21
Current Conf Record:7-10
Expected Conf Record:7-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-13
Current OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:337
Expected OOC SOS:292



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-21340.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina A&T.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Purdue (15.0)B10A81-40L0%0.0
11-16Florida (55.0)SECA104-54L0%0.0
11-21Buffalo (90.0)MACN68-86L0%0.0
11-22Niagara (315.0)MAACN72-73L0%0.0
11-24Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCA90-60L0%0.0
11-28North Dakota St. (120.0)SumA77-56L0%0.0
11-30Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzH74-63W100%0.0
12-2UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCH77-68W100%0.0
12-5Howard (328.0)MEACH66-63W100%0.0
12-7Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACH80-74W100%0.0
12-13East Carolina (217.0)AmerA71-60L0%0.0
12-17Grambling St. (350.0)SWACH61-47W100%0.0
12-21Toledo (182.0)MACA95-62L0%0.0
12-30Kent St. (124.0)MACH60-61L0%0.0
1-5USC Upstate (324.0)ASunA78-68L0%0.0
1-9Savannah St. (277.0)MEACA75-68L0%0.0
1-11South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACA92-85L0%0.0
1-16Hampton (155.0)MEACH62-79L0%0.0
1-18Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACH68-75L0%0.0
1-25Delaware St. (345.0)MEACA57-55L0%0.0
1-27Coppin St. (326.0)MEACA73-68L0%0.0
1-30Savannah St. (277.0)MEACH63-62W100%0.0
2-3Charlotte (234.0)CUSAH72-92L0%0.0
2-6North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACA63-67W100%0.0
2-13Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH75-68W100%0.0
2-15Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH77-83L0%0.0
2-22Morgan St. (327.0)MEACA72-51L0%0.0
2-27Florida A&M (349.0)MEACA70-77W100%0.0
2-29Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACA62-52L0%0.0
3-3North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACH93-87W100%0.0
3-7Coppin St. (326.0)MEACN91-98L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina A&T's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina A&T's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina A&T.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina A&TMEAC26.1126.1129.9229.92-10.49-10.49
Savannah St.MEAC3.893.8948.1548.15-0.14-0.14
Bethune CookmanMEAC3.863.8635.7135.71-1.10-1.10
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.863.8637.0437.04-1.00-1.00
Florida A&MMEAC3.803.8024.0024.00-1.97-1.97
Coppin St.MEAC3.773.7718.5218.52-2.37-2.37
South Carolina St.MEAC2.352.3553.3353.330.160.16
Norfolk St.MEAC2.302.3046.6746.67-0.15-0.15
HamptonMEAC2.272.2765.5265.520.700.70
HowardMEAC2.272.2734.4834.48-0.70-0.70
Delaware St.MEAC2.242.2413.7913.79-1.62-1.62
Morgan St.MEAC2.242.2424.1424.14-1.16-1.16
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.192.1930.0030.00-0.87-0.87
ToledoMAC1.771.7750.0050.000.000.00
East CarolinaAmer1.721.7235.4835.48-0.50-0.50
BuffaloMAC1.721.7256.2556.250.210.21
Kent St.MAC1.691.6956.6756.670.230.23
Northern KentuckyHorz1.661.6625.9325.93-0.80-0.80
PurdueB101.661.6675.7675.760.860.86
Grambling St.SWAC1.661.6614.8114.81-1.17-1.17
Virginia TechACC1.641.6456.2556.250.210.21
CharlotteCUSA1.641.6440.6240.62-0.31-0.31
USC UpstateASun1.641.6422.2222.22-0.91-0.91
FloridaSEC1.641.6456.2556.250.200.20
NiagaraMAAC1.611.6119.3519.35-0.99-0.99
North Dakota St.Sum1.611.6156.6756.670.220.22
UNC GreensboroSC1.611.6139.2939.29-0.35-0.35
AkronMAC0.290.2975.7675.760.150.15
JacksonvilleASun0.250.2542.8642.86-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.230.2348.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.230.2362.8662.860.060.06
Miami OHMAC0.200.2037.5037.50-0.05-0.05
StetsonASun0.190.1926.6726.67-0.09-0.09
OhioMAC0.180.1864.5264.520.050.05
The CitadelSC0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Youngstown St.Horz0.160.1630.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
North FloridaASun0.150.1563.3363.330.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1422.8622.86-0.08-0.08
HoustonAmer0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
South FloridaAmer0.130.1324.2424.24-0.07-0.07
Iowa St.B120.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
Miami FLACC0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
NavyPat0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
ClemsonACC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1170.0070.000.040.04
FurmanSC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Kansas St.B120.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1179.3179.310.060.06
CampbellBSth0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
IPFWSum0.110.1170.9770.970.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
SMUAmer0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
IowaB100.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
IUPUISum0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
VermontAE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
NJITASun0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
OaklandHorz0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
UtahP120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
BrownIvy0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
RichmondA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
UABCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.080.0839.3939.39-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
NebraskaB100.070.0747.0647.06-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
RiceCUSA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
LipscombASun0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
BaylorB120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
CreightonBE0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
FordhamA100.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
MercerSC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
OregonP120.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
ButlerBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00