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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


North Carolina A&T

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:350.0
Current RPI:350
Expected SOS:340
Current SOS:340
Current Record:1-29
Expected Record:1-29
Current Conf Record:1-16
Expected Conf Record:1-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:0-22
Current OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC RPI:345
Expected OOC SOS:238



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
1-29350.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina A&T.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14East Carolina (213.0)AmerA61-51L0%0.0
11-17Grambling St. (317.0)SWACA59-55L0%0.0
11-22Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAA77-56L0%0.0
11-26Jacksonville (291.0)ASunH49-66L0%0.0
11-29UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCA86-66L0%0.0
12-2North Dakota St. (111.0)SumH67-85L0%0.0
12-4Notre Dame (23.0)ACCA107-53L0%0.0
12-13Massachusetts (195.0)A10A65-59L0%0.0
12-15Pacific (223.0)WCCA66-57L0%0.0
12-18Rider (198.0)MAACH59-60L0%0.0
12-22Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunA68-60L0%0.0
12-28Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCA59-52L0%0.0
1-4Hampton (283.0)MEACA68-53L0%0.0
1-7Delaware St. (332.0)MEACH53-55L0%0.0
1-9Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACH88-99L0%0.0
1-14Coppin St. (336.0)MEACA75-73L0%0.0
1-16Morgan St. (326.0)MEACA82-53L0%0.0
1-21Howard (337.0)MEACH63-78L0%0.0
1-28North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACA82-59L0%0.0
1-30Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACA83-69L0%0.0
2-1Delaware St. (332.0)MEACA82-65L0%0.0
2-4Saint Louis (238.0)A10A78-59L0%0.0
2-11Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH77-83L0%0.0
2-13South Carolina St. (299.0)MEACH65-72L0%0.0
2-18Howard (337.0)MEACA84-53L0%0.0
2-20Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACA106-95L0%0.0
2-25Savannah St. (279.0)MEACH91-110L0%0.0
2-27Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACH70-73L0%0.0
3-2North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACH68-63W100%0.0
3-6Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACN74-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina A&T's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina A&T's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina A&T.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina A&TMEAC26.1426.142.272.27-24.95-24.95
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC5.615.6131.0331.03-2.13-2.13
North Carolina CentralMEAC4.094.0975.0075.002.052.05
HowardMEAC4.004.0020.0020.00-2.40-2.40
Delaware St.MEAC3.893.8921.4321.43-2.22-2.22
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.442.4424.1424.14-1.26-1.26
Florida A&MMEAC2.382.3814.8114.81-1.68-1.68
Norfolk St.MEAC2.362.3646.6746.67-0.16-0.16
HamptonMEAC2.352.3540.7440.74-0.44-0.44
South Carolina St.MEAC2.312.3128.5728.57-0.99-0.99
Morgan St.MEAC2.312.3142.8642.86-0.33-0.33
Coppin St.MEAC2.282.2820.6920.69-1.34-1.34
Savannah St.MEAC2.252.2538.4638.46-0.52-0.52
Kennesaw St.ASun1.861.8637.9337.93-0.45-0.45
East CarolinaAmer1.811.8143.7543.75-0.23-0.23
JacksonvilleASun1.811.8144.4444.44-0.20-0.20
RiderMAAC1.781.7853.1253.120.110.11
MassachusettsA101.771.7743.7543.75-0.22-0.22
PacificWCC1.741.7429.0329.03-0.73-0.73
Grambling St.SWAC1.721.7241.3841.38-0.30-0.30
Notre DameACC1.721.7272.7372.730.780.78
Georgia TechACC1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC1.701.7070.0070.000.680.68
North Dakota St.Sum1.691.6959.2659.260.310.31
Saint LouisA101.691.6934.3834.38-0.53-0.53
Western KentuckyCUSA1.671.6745.1645.16-0.16-0.16
George WashingtonA100.210.2157.5857.580.030.03
StetsonASun0.200.2027.5927.59-0.09-0.09
UCFAmer0.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
UMBCAE0.160.1657.1457.140.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.160.1623.3323.33-0.09-0.09
MichiganB100.160.1668.5768.570.060.06
VirginiaACC0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
Boston CollegeACC0.150.1528.1228.12-0.07-0.07
North FloridaASun0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1476.6776.670.080.08
USC UpstateASun0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
IowaB100.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
SamfordSC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
ClemsonACC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
SMUAmer0.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
AmericanPat0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
VCUA100.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
St. BonaventureA100.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
LipscombASun0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
NJITASun0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
WoffordSC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.1187.5087.500.080.08
MercerSC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.110.1175.7675.760.050.05
BYUWCC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
La SalleA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
DenverSum0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
High PointBSth0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
RiceCUSA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
WagnerNEC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
PittsburghACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.080.0896.9796.970.070.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.080.0861.5461.540.020.02
DukeACC0.080.0877.1477.140.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
DaytonA100.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
FordhamA100.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0619.2319.23-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
PortlandWCC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
BryantNEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0291.1891.180.020.02