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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


North Carolina A&T

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:343.5
Current RPI:321
Expected SOS:340
Current SOS:168
Current Record:0-7
Expected Record:6-23
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-15
Current OOC Record:0-7
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:348
Expected OOC SOS:291



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16287.50.06%
12-17298.40.20%
11-18314.20.84%
10-19322.52.40%
9-20331.26.27%
8-21337.711.37%
7-22342.517.70%
6-23345.621.08%
5-24347.718.94%
4-25349.112.75%
3-26349.96.01%
2-27350.41.95%
1-28350.60.38%
0-29351.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina A&T.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14East Carolina (174.1)AmerA61-51L0%0.0
11-17Grambling St. (339.2)SWACA59-55L0%0.0
11-22Western Kentucky (249.3)CUSAA77-56L0%0.0
11-26Jacksonville (204.9)ASunH49-66L0%0.0
11-29UNC Greensboro (171.8)SCA86-66L0%0.0
12-2North Dakota St. (147.0)SumH67-85L0%0.0
12-4Notre Dame (23.3)ACCA107-53L0%0.0
12-13Massachusetts (108.8)A10A0-02%-24.0
12-15Pacific (171.2)WCCA0-05%-19.9
12-18Rider (205.6)MAACH0-018%-10.9
12-22Kennesaw St. (309.0)ASunA0-021%-9.6
12-28Georgia Tech (191.7)ACCA0-04%-21.7
1-4Hampton (315.2)MEACA0-020%-10.0
1-7Delaware St. (285.3)MEACH0-040%-3.2
1-9Maryland Eastern Shore (295.1)MEACH0-038%-3.7
1-14Coppin St. (343.7)MEACA0-048%-0.6
1-16Morgan St. (329.9)MEACA0-026%-7.8
1-21Howard (263.6)MEACH0-029%-6.5
1-28North Carolina Central (173.0)MEACA0-06%-19.1
1-30Norfolk St. (313.7)MEACA0-022%-9.2
2-1Delaware St. (285.3)MEACA0-022%-9.5
2-4Saint Louis (286.9)A10A0-017%-11.4
2-11Florida A&M (345.5)MEACH0-060%3.1
2-13South Carolina St. (307.5)MEACH0-054%1.3
2-18Howard (263.6)MEACA0-014%-12.8
2-20Maryland Eastern Shore (295.1)MEACA0-020%-10.0
2-25Savannah St. (346.4)MEACH0-067%5.2
2-27Bethune Cookman (339.3)MEACH0-054%1.3
3-2North Carolina Central (173.0)MEACH0-014%-12.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina A&T's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina A&T's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina A&T.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina A&TMEAC28.2726.120.0021.68-28.27-14.79
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.404.0957.1470.040.061.64
HowardMEAC0.004.0416.6741.84-0.00-0.66
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.004.030.0031.67-0.00-1.48
Delaware St.MEAC0.004.0112.5035.66-0.00-1.15
Florida A&MMEAC0.402.460.0021.92-0.40-1.38
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.002.4014.2931.69-0.00-0.88
HamptonMEAC0.402.3714.2941.24-0.28-0.41
South Carolina St.MEAC0.002.340.0026.41-0.00-1.11
Savannah St.MEAC0.452.340.0018.08-0.45-1.50
Morgan St.MEAC0.002.3414.2936.93-0.00-0.61
Norfolk St.MEAC0.002.310.0034.39-0.00-0.72
Coppin St.MEAC0.002.310.0015.89-0.00-1.58
Kennesaw St.ASun0.001.9425.0028.43-0.00-0.83
East CarolinaAmer7.591.8875.0048.233.79-0.07
JacksonvilleASun7.141.8850.0057.710.000.29
RiderMAAC0.001.8450.0047.710.00-0.08
MassachusettsA100.001.8471.4357.290.000.27
PacificWCC0.001.8142.8644.45-0.00-0.20
Grambling St.SWAC7.541.7814.2928.87-5.39-0.75
Notre DameACC7.141.78100.0076.627.140.95
Georgia TechACC0.001.7857.1433.920.00-0.57
UNC GreensboroSC7.651.7666.6754.642.550.16
North Dakota St.Sum7.651.7550.0057.360.000.26
Saint LouisA100.001.7528.5721.81-0.00-0.99
Western KentuckyCUSA7.141.7228.5732.92-3.06-0.59
StetsonASun0.400.2228.5728.24-0.17-0.09
South FloridaAmer0.000.1857.1433.230.00-0.06
George WashingtonA100.000.1855.5641.690.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.1885.7176.240.000.09
SamfordSC0.000.1562.5056.520.000.02
MichiganB100.000.1575.0066.460.000.05
UMBCAE0.000.1580.0054.540.000.01
IowaB100.450.1537.5037.74-0.11-0.04
ClemsonACC0.000.1571.4354.860.000.01
VirginiaACC0.960.1587.5078.510.720.08
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1557.1429.790.00-0.06
VCUA100.000.1475.0073.060.000.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1357.1471.940.000.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1314.2943.58-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.1312.5033.04-0.00-0.04
NJITASun0.000.1350.0049.780.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.1312.5034.79-0.00-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.1344.4441.30-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1328.5723.12-0.00-0.07
IUPUISum0.000.1237.5051.64-0.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.1240.0058.82-0.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1275.0086.710.000.09
AmericanPat0.000.1214.2931.35-0.00-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1250.0066.300.000.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.450.1212.5033.65-0.33-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1250.0071.020.000.05
MercerSC0.400.1242.8647.76-0.06-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.1255.5647.890.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.1271.4354.860.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.1285.7162.990.000.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.12100.0089.330.000.09
SyracuseACC0.000.1271.4366.700.000.04
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1271.4368.050.000.04
SMUAmer0.000.1266.6766.860.000.04
BYUWCC0.000.1262.5066.900.000.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1175.0051.040.000.00
George MasonA100.000.1162.5046.900.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.1166.6755.540.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.1171.4370.390.000.05
DenverSum0.510.1042.8645.01-0.07-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0957.1453.990.000.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0925.0038.83-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0983.3379.850.000.06
FurmanSC0.000.0933.3356.24-0.000.01
High PointBSth1.020.0942.8646.48-0.15-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0942.8650.12-0.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0971.4373.040.000.04
Air ForceMWC0.910.0957.1448.500.13-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0971.4370.210.000.04
MissouriSEC0.450.0957.1442.530.06-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0933.3352.11-0.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.450.0950.0050.840.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0034.27-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.090.0034.81-0.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0937.5037.03-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0920.0035.47-0.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.000.0975.0066.100.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0933.3346.38-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0937.5031.23-0.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.0971.4363.170.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0944.4434.65-0.00-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0975.0070.620.000.04
RichmondA100.000.0950.0048.210.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0975.0054.490.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0920.0046.79-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.450.0950.0046.410.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0933.3330.44-0.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0975.0071.470.000.04
HoustonAmer0.000.0985.7178.280.000.05
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0925.0034.40-0.00-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0925.0035.09-0.00-0.03
WagnerNEC0.000.0933.3354.47-0.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0887.5065.250.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.0887.5075.590.000.04
TulaneAmer0.000.0812.5023.93-0.00-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.400.0871.4351.460.170.00
DaytonA100.000.0871.4373.490.000.04
DuquesneA100.000.0844.4442.03-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0850.0041.310.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0862.5069.130.000.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0842.8645.30-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0857.1450.420.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0875.0064.920.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0642.8643.60-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0671.4355.820.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.170.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0017.61-0.00-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0642.8655.09-0.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3354.32-0.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0687.5068.610.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0022.31-0.00-0.04
South DakotaSum0.000.0650.0046.020.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0625.0039.59-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0016.68-0.00-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0633.3346.01-0.00-0.01
NavyPat1.020.0625.0037.38-0.51-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.46-0.00-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.69-0.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0628.5741.52-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0671.4360.540.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.23-0.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0614.2931.28-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0650.0030.350.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.060.0016.78-0.00-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0616.6729.81-0.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.510.0614.2936.02-0.36-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.0637.5047.37-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0687.5059.310.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0675.0055.500.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0071.070.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0666.6746.420.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.0650.0043.560.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0642.8642.62-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.450.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0687.5074.490.000.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0671.4363.930.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0675.0066.410.000.02
MarylandB100.000.0687.5059.330.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.380.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.510.0633.3327.06-0.17-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.450.0675.0056.590.220.01
PurdueB100.000.0675.0075.340.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0642.8647.11-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.920.000.05
PepperdineWCC0.000.0642.8633.23-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0650.0054.070.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0685.7153.560.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3332.35-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.0688.8978.400.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0687.5081.960.000.04
OhioMAC0.000.0683.3371.480.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0675.0049.180.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0637.5044.39-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.450.0620.0022.75-0.27-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3339.61-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0671.4359.880.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0657.1464.030.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0687.5076.230.000.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0628.5736.95-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0637.5052.01-0.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0038.050.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0650.0059.920.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0316.6729.80-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0385.7166.190.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.510.0375.0066.370.260.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.070.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.510.0328.5732.62-0.22-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.510.0360.0058.590.100.01
OregonP120.000.0375.0072.250.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0325.0022.93-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.27-0.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0322.2241.71-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0360.0069.120.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.510.0371.4357.970.220.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0078.850.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0314.2926.74-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0328.5738.15-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.180.000.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0350.0045.970.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.040.000.02
XavierBE0.510.0387.5070.890.380.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.510.0342.8638.17-0.07-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0355.5646.970.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.0366.6766.340.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.440.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0328.5742.90-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0342.8639.20-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0328.5731.44-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0342.8644.71-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.450.0357.1454.360.060.00
LibertyBSth0.510.0333.3348.07-0.17-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.920.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.450.0342.8630.92-0.06-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0048.030.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0375.0070.180.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.34-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0385.7145.370.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0337.5033.74-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.670.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0385.7170.060.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0342.8653.19-0.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0357.1467.260.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.450.0322.2221.23-0.25-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0350.0046.240.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.980.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.21-0.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0342.8658.58-0.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0362.5043.220.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0311.1148.19-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.0375.0059.790.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.990.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0328.5733.77-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0366.6740.030.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1452.030.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0342.8651.95-0.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0377.7871.970.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0022.01-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.040.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0340.0041.12-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0325.0027.53-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.070.000.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0086.690.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0366.6754.050.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.790.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.74-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.450.0350.0064.350.000.01
BryantNEC0.450.0325.0047.82-0.22-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0387.5082.360.000.02
ColgatePat0.000.0312.5029.71-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6761.550.000.01
ColoradoP120.450.0375.0062.620.220.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0021.22-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0350.0040.600.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0357.1450.080.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0316.6730.34-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0060.620.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0322.2226.33-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0342.8650.11-0.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.450.0342.8645.94-0.06-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0048.500.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.450.0375.0066.170.220.01
SeattleWAC0.450.0316.6739.49-0.30-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0041.990.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.130.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0325.0020.78-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0024.64-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0322.2238.49-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.100.000.02
UNLVMWC0.450.0362.5043.800.11-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.54-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0084.840.000.02
WashingtonP120.450.0357.1452.370.060.00