live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Jan 26, 2015.


North Carolina A&T

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:332.0
Current RPI:341
Expected SOS:331
Current SOS:314
Current Record:3-17
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:2-6
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-12
Current OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:328
Expected OOC SOS:199



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-17283.50.02%
11-18296.30.06%
10-19307.20.92%
9-20316.67.39%
8-21324.921.80%
7-22332.132.35%
6-23338.326.03%
5-24343.09.31%
4-25346.11.97%
3-26347.50.14%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina A&T.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17USC Upstate (221.7)ASunH46-63L0%0.0
11-19Northern Kentucky (229.7)ASunA68-55L0%0.0
11-23Bradley (264.0)MVCA58-50L0%0.0
11-25Saint Louis (234.8)A10A57-54L0%0.0
11-28Radford (158.7)BSthN57-65L0%0.0
11-29Mississippi Valley St. (345.9)SWACN66-63L0%0.0
12-4USC Upstate (221.7)ASunA65-54L0%0.0
12-6Howard (262.9)MEACA54-47L0%0.0
12-8Maryland Eastern Shore (190.9)MEACA69-58L0%0.0
12-14Old Dominion (46.8)CUSAA85-48L0%0.0
12-17Ohio St. (24.7)B10A97-55L0%0.0
12-19Kent St. (101.8)MACA71-57L0%0.0
12-30South Carolina (80.2)SECA91-54L0%0.0
1-3Cal St. Bakersfield (308.6)WACH83-70W100%0.0
1-10Savannah St. (327.2)MEACH68-47W100%0.0
1-12South Carolina St. (302.5)MEACH50-52L0%0.0
1-17Hampton (298.2)MEACA61-64W100%0.0
1-19Norfolk St. (139.7)MEACA74-60L0%0.0
1-24Delaware St. (213.2)MEACH52-67L0%0.0
1-26Coppin St. (320.7)MEACH71-84L0%0.0
1-31Savannah St. (327.2)MEACA0-050%0.1
2-4Charlotte (154.4)CUSAA0-04%-19.7
2-7North Carolina Central (111.3)MEACH0-013%-12.5
2-14Florida A&M (350.7)MEACA0-073%6.8
2-16Bethune Cookman (338.0)MEACA0-036%-3.9
2-23Morgan St. (325.5)MEACH0-057%2.0
2-28Florida A&M (350.7)MEACH0-089%13.6
3-2Bethune Cookman (338.0)MEACH0-060%2.9
3-5North Carolina Central (111.3)MEACA0-04%-19.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina A&T's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina A&T's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina A&T.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina A&TMEAC26.4626.1815.4825.06-18.27-13.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.524.120.003.58-0.52-3.82
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.584.0772.2276.730.262.18
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.384.0221.0528.93-0.22-1.70
Savannah St.MEAC2.754.0217.6525.25-1.78-1.99
USC UpstateASun5.133.6056.2559.880.640.71
HamptonMEAC2.832.3642.1140.15-0.45-0.46
South Carolina St.MEAC2.752.3525.0029.89-1.37-0.95
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.692.3352.3855.390.130.25
HowardMEAC2.702.3237.5042.36-0.68-0.36
Norfolk St.MEAC2.692.3055.0061.190.270.51
Morgan St.MEAC0.252.2920.0026.70-0.15-1.07
Delaware St.MEAC2.702.2941.1848.09-0.48-0.09
Coppin St.MEAC2.702.295.5616.77-2.40-1.52
Northern KentuckyASun2.641.8535.2941.27-0.78-0.32
CharlotteCUSA0.141.8142.1150.08-0.020.00
Old DominionCUSA2.561.8177.7878.681.421.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.501.795.2612.39-2.24-1.35
RadfordBSth2.571.7558.8260.100.450.35
BradleyMVC2.571.7526.3228.95-1.22-0.74
Saint LouisA102.561.7541.1835.23-0.45-0.52
South CarolinaSEC2.501.7550.0051.400.000.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC2.501.7227.7837.75-1.11-0.42
Kent St.MAC2.501.7270.5962.991.030.45
Ohio St.B102.501.7275.0076.051.250.90
StetsonASun0.140.3711.7619.41-0.11-0.23
North FloridaASun0.140.3452.6360.370.010.07
JacksonvilleASun0.070.3121.0521.30-0.04-0.18
Kennesaw St.ASun0.280.2225.0025.64-0.14-0.11
MarshallCUSA0.210.2016.6723.18-0.14-0.11
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1961.1166.600.030.06
LipscombASun0.210.1941.1842.84-0.04-0.03
WinthropBSth0.210.1843.7548.08-0.03-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.1847.3750.47-0.000.00
FIUCUSA0.140.1843.7540.86-0.02-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.200.1735.2933.20-0.06-0.06
MemphisAmer0.200.1663.1661.540.050.04
MarylandB100.140.1685.7177.400.100.09
Mississippi St.SEC0.270.1544.4434.93-0.03-0.05
Miami FLACC0.140.1573.6870.410.070.06
IndianaB100.250.1575.0068.440.130.05
UMKCWAC0.200.1331.5838.36-0.08-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.120.1242.1147.18-0.02-0.01
UCFAmer0.140.1244.4441.07-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.190.1252.9459.020.010.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.1250.0062.020.000.03
High PointBSth0.190.1272.2269.040.090.05
LSUSEC0.140.1278.9569.080.080.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1225.0037.78-0.00-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1258.8257.880.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.140.1237.5045.87-0.04-0.01
RichmondA100.210.1252.6355.850.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.200.1227.7828.14-0.09-0.05
TowsonCAA0.070.1240.0037.69-0.01-0.03
NJITind0.060.1252.3854.450.000.01
AkronMAC0.140.1266.6762.820.050.03
FordhamA100.190.1225.0024.52-0.09-0.06
Ball St.MAC0.070.1237.5037.43-0.02-0.03
DuquesneA100.200.1229.4127.39-0.08-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.260.1252.9447.070.02-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.260.1140.0037.57-0.05-0.03
VCUA100.190.1184.2180.650.130.07
RiceCUSA0.070.1126.6730.25-0.03-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.1170.5967.540.030.04
Penn St.B100.000.1165.0051.820.000.00
IUPUISum0.070.0938.1040.90-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.140.0947.3742.90-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0980.9576.270.040.05
Wright St.Horz0.200.0947.3748.02-0.01-0.00
CornellIvy0.220.0947.0648.23-0.01-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.0950.0051.880.000.00
LibertyBSth0.070.0911.7617.54-0.05-0.06
Kansas St.B120.130.0960.0047.710.03-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.120.0968.7569.240.040.03
ToledoMAC0.140.0957.8959.340.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.130.0984.2177.800.090.05
TulaneAmer0.130.0963.1653.840.030.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0978.9572.140.040.04
ClemsonACC0.070.0957.8948.680.01-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0972.2265.290.030.03
IllinoisB100.190.0961.9060.530.040.02
James MadisonCAA0.190.0957.1458.270.030.01
CampbellBSth0.200.0926.3233.55-0.09-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.130.0973.6869.260.060.03
VanderbiltSEC0.130.0955.5654.010.010.01
NorthwesternB100.190.0950.0043.450.00-0.01
TCUB120.190.0973.6861.650.090.02
Virginia TechACC0.130.0942.1135.39-0.02-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.140.0970.5968.840.060.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.0928.5736.64-0.05-0.02
MichiganB100.130.0957.8950.390.020.00
HoustonAmer0.120.0936.8435.44-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.180.0947.3749.70-0.01-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.190.0943.7538.83-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.070.0929.4131.72-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.130.0957.8959.490.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0947.3744.57-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.0961.1158.490.030.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0990.0084.520.050.06
Wichita St.MVC0.130.0989.4787.870.100.07
Alcorn St.SWAC0.130.0916.6722.01-0.08-0.05
IowaB100.180.0965.0063.260.050.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.0945.0057.03-0.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0933.3330.07-0.02-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.070.0963.1668.410.020.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.140.0633.3331.73-0.05-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0673.6872.910.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.0642.8638.61-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0658.8259.040.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0657.8956.170.000.01
IdahoBSky0.140.0637.5043.67-0.03-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0656.2555.460.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.065.5611.56-0.06-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.070.0621.0526.08-0.04-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0616.6717.52-0.05-0.04
SeattleWAC0.000.0647.0649.59-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0635.2938.26-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0650.0053.430.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0635.0031.74-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.140.0635.0034.43-0.04-0.02
DelawareCAA0.140.0621.0522.39-0.08-0.03
HawaiiBW0.140.0663.1657.370.040.01
HofstraCAA0.130.0666.6770.420.040.02
OregonP120.140.0668.4259.870.050.01
Morehead St.OVC0.130.0635.0043.91-0.04-0.01
NebraskaB100.070.0663.1651.390.020.00
WisconsinB100.070.0690.0087.160.060.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.0653.3353.310.010.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.0665.0068.160.040.02
UC RiversideBW0.070.0638.8936.56-0.01-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.140.0658.8262.350.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0666.6760.600.020.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0650.0052.210.000.00
BaylorB120.130.0677.7871.500.070.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0614.2915.34-0.00-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0635.2931.66-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.070.06100.0098.470.070.06
MercerSC0.000.0647.3751.56-0.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0652.3854.020.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0643.7552.37-0.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0645.0045.98-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.0655.0060.970.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0666.6754.640.020.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.065.2610.55-0.11-0.05
The CitadelSC0.000.0629.4131.63-0.00-0.02
VirginiaACC0.120.06100.0093.900.120.05
WyomingMWC0.000.0683.3376.440.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.070.0673.6868.210.030.02
UMBCAE0.130.0615.0020.03-0.09-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.0661.1160.430.030.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0644.4441.02-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0628.5733.12-0.03-0.02
Iowa St.B120.140.0678.9569.690.080.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.0633.3335.61-0.04-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0675.0070.890.030.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0666.6765.570.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0678.5775.050.040.03
DaytonA100.070.0684.2179.140.050.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.130.0615.7918.55-0.09-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0633.3334.70-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.070.0641.1838.61-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0652.9457.390.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0615.7917.73-0.00-0.04
DavidsonA100.070.0676.4776.600.040.03
ElonCAA0.000.0647.3744.10-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0642.8642.72-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0680.0071.460.040.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0673.6872.660.000.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0652.6346.710.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0657.8956.150.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0625.0022.84-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.060.0661.1156.220.010.01
UABCUSA0.070.0647.3749.78-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0643.7543.13-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0625.0031.37-0.03-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0664.2967.420.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.006.69-0.00-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0621.0533.20-0.04-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0660.0056.760.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0631.5844.76-0.02-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0363.1662.110.020.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0370.5973.690.030.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0384.2175.010.050.02
CaliforniaP120.070.0355.0045.730.01-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0361.1160.470.010.01
DenverSum0.070.0345.0047.77-0.01-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0344.4437.92-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0316.6723.14-0.04-0.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0390.4884.080.050.02
PepperdineWCC0.070.0357.8956.240.010.00
Portland St.BSky0.070.0350.0047.470.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0373.6875.860.030.02
SienaMAAC0.070.0342.1138.13-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.0322.2226.61-0.04-0.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0345.0047.77-0.01-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.070.0355.5653.180.010.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0335.2932.48-0.02-0.01
AmericanPat0.060.0355.0056.700.010.00
AuburnSEC0.070.0350.0040.050.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0338.8942.63-0.01-0.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0352.6353.730.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0371.4369.500.030.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0371.4374.820.030.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0363.1663.590.020.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0333.3330.04-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0366.6758.420.020.01
PennIvy0.070.0333.3334.03-0.02-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0343.7542.93-0.01-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0347.6250.23-0.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0340.0041.97-0.01-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0323.5327.83-0.03-0.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0366.6758.550.020.01
TempleAmer0.070.0365.0062.240.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0372.2263.570.000.01
Texas TechB120.060.0355.0041.210.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0345.0040.37-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.060.0373.6865.210.030.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0325.0028.11-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.070.0363.1666.580.020.01
KansasB120.070.0384.2176.020.050.01
La SalleA100.000.0352.6352.940.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0347.3747.21-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0352.6353.080.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0361.9062.380.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0350.0054.930.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0344.4439.84-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0378.9574.020.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0335.2935.00-0.02-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0355.5654.970.010.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0361.1159.790.010.01
VermontAE0.070.0352.6358.420.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0364.7156.880.000.00
YaleIvy0.070.0364.7164.070.020.01
BucknellPat0.060.0350.0050.910.000.00
ColgatePat0.060.0340.0046.29-0.01-0.00
DetroitHorz0.060.0340.0042.45-0.01-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0365.0063.970.000.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0360.0056.620.010.00
NavyPat0.060.0331.5832.87-0.02-0.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0372.2262.200.030.01
RutgersB100.000.0347.6237.43-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0340.0045.20-0.01-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0350.0055.540.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.060.0340.0041.44-0.01-0.00
VillanovaBE0.060.0390.0084.390.050.02