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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


North Carolina A&T

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:322.8
Current RPI:339
Expected SOS:325
Current SOS:298
Current Record:0-4
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-12
Current OOC Record:0-4
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:327
Expected OOC SOS:128



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13197.00.01%
14-14218.80.18%
13-15237.40.70%
12-16260.72.30%
11-17280.05.06%
10-18298.19.68%
9-19312.315.02%
8-20324.718.72%
7-21333.819.16%
6-22340.214.75%
5-23344.99.09%
4-24347.93.73%
3-25349.51.25%
2-26350.30.30%
1-27351.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina A&T.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17USC Upstate (225.2)ASunH46-63L0%0.0
11-19Northern Kentucky (244.4)ASunA68-55L0%0.0
11-23Bradley (253.4)MVCA58-50L0%0.0
11-25Saint Louis (172.0)A10A57-54L0%0.0
11-28Radford (204.8)BSthN0-024%-8.5
12-4USC Upstate (225.2)ASunA0-015%-12.5
12-6Howard (258.4)MEACA0-022%-9.2
12-8Maryland Eastern Shore (321.1)MEACA0-038%-3.6
12-14Old Dominion (72.2)CUSAA0-03%-22.2
12-17Ohio St. (32.1)B10A0-01%-30.4
12-19Kent St. (99.7)MACA0-05%-19.7
12-30South Carolina (96.8)SECA0-03%-23.3
1-3Cal St. Bakersfield (291.1)WACH0-046%-1.3
1-10Savannah St. (294.5)MEACH0-061%3.5
1-12South Carolina St. (285.3)MEACH0-053%0.8
1-17Hampton (273.3)MEACA0-023%-9.1
1-19Norfolk St. (238.1)MEACA0-019%-10.4
1-24Delaware St. (247.3)MEACH0-042%-2.3
1-26Coppin St. (283.4)MEACH0-057%2.1
1-31Savannah St. (294.5)MEACA0-038%-3.7
2-4Charlotte (70.3)CUSAA0-03%-22.6
2-7North Carolina Central (188.3)MEACH0-025%-8.1
2-14Florida A&M (344.8)MEACA0-052%0.5
2-16Bethune Cookman (338.2)MEACA0-043%-2.2
2-23Morgan St. (279.1)MEACH0-043%-2.2
2-28Florida A&M (344.8)MEACH0-074%7.7
3-2Bethune Cookman (338.2)MEACH0-066%5.0
3-5North Carolina Central (188.3)MEACA0-010%-15.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina A&T's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina A&T's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina A&T.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina A&TMEAC32.2926.210.0029.08-32.29-10.97
Florida A&MMEAC2.084.280.0020.16-2.08-2.55
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.004.190.0063.46-0.001.13
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.004.1820.0029.71-0.00-1.70
Savannah St.MEAC0.004.1840.0031.74-0.00-1.53
USC UpstateASun12.503.7350.0050.960.000.07
HamptonMEAC0.002.4520.0043.93-0.00-0.30
South Carolina St.MEAC0.002.450.0035.29-0.00-0.72
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.002.4214.2928.87-0.00-1.02
HowardMEAC0.002.4225.0045.32-0.00-0.23
Coppin St.MEAC0.002.390.0026.97-0.00-1.10
Norfolk St.MEAC0.002.3925.0045.78-0.00-0.20
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.3933.3345.70-0.00-0.21
Morgan St.MEAC0.002.390.0038.35-0.00-0.56
Northern KentuckyASun12.501.920.0037.76-12.50-0.47
CharlotteCUSA0.001.8860.0067.290.000.65
Old DominionCUSA0.001.8780.0073.800.000.89
RadfordBSth0.001.8233.3351.39-0.000.05
South CarolinaSEC0.001.8140.0048.64-0.00-0.05
BradleyMVC12.501.7933.3327.44-4.17-0.81
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.001.7920.0037.51-0.00-0.45
Kent St.MAC0.001.7975.0063.660.000.49
Ohio St.B100.001.79100.0073.850.000.85
Saint LouisA1012.501.7966.6745.544.17-0.16
StetsonASun0.000.380.0032.66-0.00-0.13
North FloridaASun0.000.3525.0048.23-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.320.0024.22-0.00-0.17
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.2320.0026.30-0.00-0.11
MarshallCUSA0.000.2166.6749.780.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.20100.0079.080.000.12
LipscombASun0.000.200.0042.35-0.00-0.03
WinthropBSth0.000.1933.3354.56-0.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1940.0047.31-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.1950.0043.100.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.17100.0072.100.000.07
Miami FLACC0.000.15100.0081.280.000.10
North TexasCUSA0.000.1566.6739.910.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.1325.0046.58-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.13100.0047.350.00-0.01
UCFAmer2.080.13100.0048.892.08-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.13100.0060.830.000.03
High PointBSth0.000.1375.0056.990.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1333.3350.48-0.000.00
RichmondA100.000.1366.6766.740.000.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1340.0067.55-0.000.04
Southern IllinoisMVC1.560.1340.0047.10-0.31-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.13100.0030.140.00-0.05
LSUSEC0.000.1260.0056.190.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.1260.0066.000.000.04
TowsonCAA0.000.1280.0058.000.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1266.6741.550.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.120.0026.74-0.00-0.06
Ball St.MAC0.000.1233.3346.41-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.12100.0055.470.000.01
NJITind0.000.1220.0028.08-0.00-0.05
IndianaB100.000.1280.0058.080.000.02
VCUA100.000.1280.0073.820.000.06
Penn St.B100.000.1283.3348.030.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.1233.3330.02-0.00-0.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1225.0040.73-0.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.1040.0031.23-0.00-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.10100.0069.870.000.04
MemphisAmer0.000.1050.0067.350.000.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.100.0066.25-0.000.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1040.0058.90-0.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.1033.3336.17-0.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1066.6762.900.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.1060.0057.210.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.09100.0049.350.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0966.6756.780.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0940.0060.63-0.000.02
Indiana St.MVC1.560.0975.0044.920.78-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0950.0041.110.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.09100.0073.990.000.05
Wichita St.MVC0.000.09100.0083.950.000.06
James MadisonCAA0.000.0975.0047.770.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0950.0065.470.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0975.0055.820.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.09100.0052.850.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.090.0031.79-0.00-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0950.0031.510.00-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.09100.0079.500.000.05
ArkansasSEC0.000.09100.0081.020.000.06
ClemsonACC0.000.0960.0052.120.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.09100.0060.980.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.09100.0065.710.000.03
George MasonA100.000.0920.0022.51-0.00-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0933.3340.46-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0950.0030.040.00-0.04
MichiganB100.000.0975.0066.400.000.03
IowaB100.000.0960.0064.290.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.07100.0059.140.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0060.560.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0766.6757.980.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.070.0034.82-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0720.0043.52-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0017.79-0.00-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0725.0033.31-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0766.6754.260.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0733.3348.77-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0725.0029.87-0.00-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0725.0020.71-0.00-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.000.070.0022.61-0.00-0.04
TCUB120.000.06100.0057.870.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0640.0038.29-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0019.97-0.00-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3345.50-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0625.0027.00-0.00-0.03
HofstraCAA0.000.0660.0066.760.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0625.0031.38-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0650.0051.850.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0625.0045.15-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0666.6738.430.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6750.600.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0075.610.000.03
BaylorB120.000.06100.0070.500.000.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0053.790.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0018.08-0.00-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0051.400.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6754.720.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6760.350.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0620.0031.41-0.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0620.0050.95-0.000.00
OregonP120.000.0660.0063.180.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0633.3353.25-0.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0050.30-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.120.0633.3349.98-1.04-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0633.3367.26-0.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0029.35-0.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0057.240.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0053.43-0.000.00
NebraskaB102.080.0675.0053.251.040.00
NorthwesternB100.000.06100.0043.950.00-0.01
WisconsinB102.080.06100.0084.262.080.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0675.0056.430.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0680.0058.990.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0660.0054.250.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0062.250.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0064.660.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.060.0030.42-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0675.0071.680.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0633.3333.84-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0089.550.000.05
MercerSC0.000.0633.3353.13-0.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0053.310.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0046.130.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.060.0051.20-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0044.550.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0666.6752.600.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0675.0050.700.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0043.100.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0025.13-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0029.35-0.00-0.03
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0067.780.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0640.0052.47-0.000.00
UMBCAE0.000.060.0028.76-0.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0650.0025.530.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.0650.0053.610.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0650.0043.080.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6772.650.000.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0037.650.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0052.460.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0680.0070.940.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0666.6749.540.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0666.6750.750.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0633.3344.17-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0070.870.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0633.3328.79-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0680.0067.040.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0046.09-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0375.0073.980.000.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0333.3359.03-0.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0070.280.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0031.74-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0316.6731.76-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0325.0055.20-0.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0069.250.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0070.310.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0366.6766.590.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0025.33-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0050.520.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.030.0028.60-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0380.0071.450.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0366.6754.750.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0048.940.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0039.42-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC1.560.0325.0043.52-0.78-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.03100.0087.570.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0366.6763.740.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0038.65-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0038.43-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.95-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0375.0045.460.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB1.560.0360.0051.970.310.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0375.0061.090.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0055.960.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.98-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0057.160.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0366.6751.550.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0350.0035.490.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0340.0044.83-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6771.550.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0375.0073.890.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0375.0063.470.000.01
KansasB120.000.0366.6760.800.000.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0056.940.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0049.91-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0380.0060.610.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0052.730.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0340.0036.72-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0055.110.000.00
PennIvy0.000.030.0025.91-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0047.880.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0037.460.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.500.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0032.89-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0380.0067.890.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0049.930.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0067.070.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0333.3358.10-0.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0360.0047.180.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6753.920.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.0375.0065.600.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0067.050.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6747.140.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.0333.3336.66-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0325.0039.71-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0360.0059.230.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0375.0072.430.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0366.6759.490.000.01
NavyPat0.000.0320.0031.41-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0350.0024.400.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0333.3333.44-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0325.0044.79-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0360.0042.550.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0078.020.000.02