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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


New Orleans

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:343.0
Current RPI:343
Expected SOS:349
Current SOS:349
Current Record:7-20
Expected Record:7-20
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-9
Current OOC Record:1-7
Expected OOC Record:1-7
Expected OOC RPI:320
Expected OOC SOS:294



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-20343.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Orleans.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Bowling Green (200.0)MACA79-61L0%0.0
11-16Duquesne (162.0)A10A95-75L0%0.0
11-25Bradley (306.0)MVCA51-64W100%0.0
11-28Northwestern (115.0)B10A90-63L0%0.0
12-2Tulane (227.0)AmerA64-62L0%0.0
12-5Ball St. (179.0)MACA66-52L0%0.0
12-16Massachusetts (171.0)A10A103-95L0%0.0
12-21Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBA79-69L0%0.0
1-4Lamar (337.0)SlndA64-68W100%0.0
1-9Sam Houston St. (178.0)SlndA73-70L0%0.0
1-11Incarnate Word (163.0)SlndH68-71L0%0.0
1-16Houston Baptist (224.0)SlndH69-73L0%0.0
1-18Stephen F. Austin (61.0)SlndH58-82L0%0.0
1-23Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndA97-76L0%0.0
1-25Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndH94-83W100%0.0
1-30McNeese St. (341.0)SlndH76-64W100%0.0
2-1Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndH74-53W100%0.0
2-6Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndA112-77L0%0.0
2-11McNeese St. (341.0)SlndA87-76L0%0.0
2-15Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndH57-65L0%0.0
2-20Northwestern St. (344.0)SlndA99-102W100%0.0
2-24Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndA93-81L0%0.0
2-27Abilene Christian (321.0)SlndA87-84L0%0.0
2-29Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndA80-76L0%0.0
3-3Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndH60-61L0%0.0
3-5Northwestern St. (344.0)SlndH97-86W100%0.0
3-9Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndN84-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Orleans's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Orleans's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Orleans.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New OrleansSlnd26.3826.3828.7028.70-11.24-11.24
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd6.446.4425.0025.00-3.22-3.22
Nicholls St.Slnd4.724.7224.1424.14-2.44-2.44
McNeese St.Slnd4.684.6825.0025.00-2.34-2.34
Central ArkansasSlnd4.634.6323.0823.08-2.49-2.49
Northwestern St.Slnd4.584.5822.7322.73-2.50-2.50
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd4.504.5075.0075.002.252.25
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.842.8481.4881.481.791.79
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.832.8350.0050.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd2.812.8142.8642.86-0.40-0.40
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.732.7330.7730.77-1.05-1.05
Incarnate WordSlnd2.702.7054.1754.170.230.23
LamarSlnd2.692.6928.0028.00-1.18-1.18
MassachusettsA101.951.9541.9441.94-0.31-0.31
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.921.9250.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC1.911.9156.6756.670.250.25
TulaneAmer1.881.8833.3333.33-0.63-0.63
Bowling GreenMAC1.881.8841.9441.94-0.30-0.30
BradleyMVC1.881.8813.3313.33-1.38-1.38
DuquesneA101.881.8846.6746.67-0.13-0.13
NorthwesternB101.851.8561.2961.290.420.42
Arkansas Little RockSB0.230.2387.1087.100.170.17
Central MichiganMAC0.220.2248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.200.2044.8344.83-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.190.1936.3636.36-0.05-0.05
NebraskaB100.180.1847.0647.06-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.170.1778.1278.120.100.10
Texas A&MSEC0.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
Western MichiganMAC0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.150.1520.0020.00-0.09-0.09
Florida St.ACC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
SMUAmer0.150.1583.3383.330.100.10
CincinnatiAmer0.150.1568.7568.750.050.05
HoustonAmer0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
MemphisAmer0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
MississippiSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
UTSACUSA0.130.1313.3313.33-0.09-0.09
Appalachian St.SB0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.120.1222.2222.22-0.07-0.07
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
La SalleA100.120.1226.6726.67-0.05-0.05
OhioMAC0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.120.1273.3373.330.050.05
SouthernSWAC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
AkronMAC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Kent St.MAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
UCFAmer0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
ArizonaP120.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
RiceCUSA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
PittsburghACC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0968.7568.750.040.04
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
WisconsinB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
MichiganB100.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0924.2424.24-0.05-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
DaytonA100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
Saint LouisA100.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
FordhamA100.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Penn St.B100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
VCUA100.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
PurdueB100.070.0776.4776.470.030.03
Arizona St.P120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
TexasB120.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.060.063.453.45-0.05-0.05
George MasonA100.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0622.8622.86-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
MarylandB100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
MinnesotaB100.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.040.0422.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.040.0416.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.040.0418.5218.52-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01