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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


New Orleans

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:326.0
Current RPI:326
Expected SOS:337
Current SOS:337
Current Record:8-18
Expected Record:8-18
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-9
Current OOC Record:1-5
Expected OOC Record:1-5
Expected OOC RPI:247
Expected OOC SOS:177



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-18326.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Orleans.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-20TCU (131.0)B12A86-71L0%0.0
11-28Texas A&M (67.0)SECA87-65L0%0.0
11-30Denver (232.0)SumA79-60L0%0.0
12-13San Diego (157.0)WCCA85-60L0%0.0
12-19Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCA52-56W100%0.0
12-22Indiana (61.0)B10A79-59L0%0.0
1-5Lamar (230.0)SlndH72-67W100%0.0
1-10Sam Houston St. (82.0)SlndH62-68L0%0.0
1-12Incarnate Word (160.0)SlndA97-66L0%0.0
1-17Houston Baptist (285.0)SlndA74-73L0%0.0
1-19Stephen F. Austin (33.0)SlndA79-54L0%0.0
1-24Texas A&M Corpus Chris (209.0)SlndH67-71L0%0.0
1-26Central Arkansas (349.0)SlndH87-67W100%0.0
1-31McNeese St. (279.0)SlndA68-61L0%0.0
2-2Nicholls St. (321.0)SlndA67-55L0%0.0
2-7Central Arkansas (349.0)SlndA70-67L0%0.0
2-9McNeese St. (279.0)SlndH81-71W100%0.0
2-16Texas A&M Corpus Chris (209.0)SlndA55-53L0%0.0
2-21Northwestern St. (161.0)SlndH84-87L0%0.0
2-23Southeastern Louisiana (329.0)SlndA73-74W100%0.0
2-28Abilene Christian (324.0)SlndH75-55W100%0.0
3-2Nicholls St. (321.0)SlndH79-89L0%0.0
3-5Southeastern Louisiana (329.0)SlndH85-79W100%0.0
3-7Northwestern St. (161.0)SlndA88-78L0%0.0
3-11Nicholls St. (321.0)SlndN73-82W100%0.0
3-12Texas A&M Corpus Chris (209.0)SlndN61-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Orleans's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Orleans's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Orleans.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New OrleansSlnd26.5626.5632.0832.08-9.52-9.52
Nicholls St.Slnd6.666.6621.7421.74-3.77-3.77
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd6.646.6451.8551.850.250.25
McNeese St.Slnd4.984.9840.0040.00-1.00-1.00
Northwestern St.Slnd4.954.9552.0052.000.200.20
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd4.904.9027.5927.59-2.20-2.20
Central ArkansasSlnd4.824.823.703.70-4.47-4.47
Sam Houston St.Slnd3.053.0571.4371.431.311.31
Stephen F. AustinSlnd3.013.0186.2186.212.182.18
Incarnate WordSlnd2.932.9356.5256.520.380.38
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.892.8925.9325.93-1.39-1.39
LamarSlnd2.862.8644.0044.00-0.34-0.34
Houston BaptistSlnd2.852.8530.4330.43-1.12-1.12
DenverSum2.122.1237.9337.93-0.51-0.51
Texas A&MSEC2.032.0363.3363.330.540.54
TCUB121.991.9953.1253.120.120.12
IndianaB101.961.9659.3859.380.370.37
San DiegoWCC1.921.9244.8344.83-0.20-0.20
Southern IllinoisMVC1.921.9235.4835.48-0.56-0.56
BaylorB120.190.1971.8871.880.080.08
OklahomaB120.190.1968.7568.750.070.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.190.1939.2939.29-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.190.1925.0025.00-0.09-0.09
Louisiana TechCUSA0.180.1875.0075.000.090.09
TroySB0.180.1829.6329.63-0.07-0.07
LSUSEC0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.1518.7518.75-0.10-0.10
North TexasCUSA0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
MichiganB100.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.140.1491.1891.180.120.12
NebraskaB100.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Saint LouisA100.130.1332.2632.26-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.130.1393.9493.940.110.11
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1323.0823.08-0.07-0.07
GeorgetownBE0.130.1367.7467.740.040.04
RadfordBSth0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
UTSACUSA0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1290.9190.910.100.10
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.1235.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Kansas St.B120.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
UTEPCUSA0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
NorthwesternB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Iowa St.B120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.090.0941.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0987.1087.100.070.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0910.3410.34-0.07-0.07
KansasB120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
MarylandB100.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
RiceCUSA0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0759.2659.260.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
CreightonBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
BYUWCC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
PacificWCC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
XavierBE0.060.0661.7661.760.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Ohio St.B100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
PurdueB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
RutgersB100.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
UMKCWAC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
IowaB100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00