live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


New Orleans

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:154.0
Current RPI:154
Expected SOS:274
Current SOS:274
Current Record:17-11
Expected Record:17-11
Current Conf Record:15-5
Expected Conf Record:15-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-4
Current OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC RPI:219
Expected OOC SOS:104



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11154.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Orleans.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12A117-72L0%0.0
11-19Tulsa (134.0)AmerA77-68L0%0.0
11-22USC (40.0)P12A88-54L0%0.0
11-29Tulane (296.0)AmerH74-59W100%0.0
12-3Washington St. (159.0)P12A54-70W100%0.0
12-11Northwestern (50.0)B10A83-49L0%0.0
12-17Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBH71-76L0%0.0
12-19Utah St. (181.0)MWCA76-66L0%0.0
12-29Abilene Christian (288.0)SlndH75-66W100%0.0
12-31Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.0)SlndH73-72W100%0.0
1-5Lamar (232.0)SlndA62-66W100%0.0
1-7Incarnate Word (303.0)SlndA72-87W100%0.0
1-12Sam Houston St. (194.0)SlndH68-70L0%0.0
1-19Houston Baptist (175.0)SlndH72-64W100%0.0
1-21Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndA63-81W100%0.0
1-26McNeese St. (315.0)SlndH75-56W100%0.0
1-28Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndA71-61L0%0.0
2-1Abilene Christian (288.0)SlndA70-69L0%0.0
2-4Nicholls St. (252.0)SlndH78-69W100%0.0
2-9McNeese St. (315.0)SlndA63-69W100%0.0
2-11Southeastern Louisiana (248.0)SlndA52-60W100%0.0
2-18Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndH84-61W100%0.0
2-23Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndH82-65W100%0.0
2-25Northwestern St. (306.0)SlndA83-82L0%0.0
3-2Southeastern Louisiana (248.0)SlndH58-63L0%0.0
3-4Nicholls St. (252.0)SlndA64-74W100%0.0
3-10Sam Houston St. (194.0)SlndN75-63W100%0.0
3-11Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.0)SlndN68-65W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Orleans's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Orleans's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Orleans.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New OrleansSlnd26.3826.3864.8464.847.837.83
Sam Houston St.Slnd4.554.5557.1457.140.650.65
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd4.544.5465.3865.381.401.40
Central ArkansasSlnd4.544.5426.6726.67-2.12-2.12
Stephen F. AustinSlnd4.534.5351.8551.850.170.17
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd4.484.4846.4346.43-0.32-0.32
McNeese St.Slnd4.434.4320.8320.83-2.58-2.58
Abilene ChristianSlnd4.424.4234.7834.78-1.34-1.34
Nicholls St.Slnd4.394.3940.0040.00-0.88-0.88
LamarSlnd2.852.8553.5753.570.200.20
Houston BaptistSlnd2.802.8052.0052.000.110.11
Incarnate WordSlnd2.752.7533.3333.33-0.92-0.92
Northwestern St.Slnd2.742.7433.3333.33-0.91-0.91
TulaneAmer2.002.0020.0020.00-1.20-1.20
TulsaAmer1.961.9645.1645.16-0.19-0.19
Oklahoma St.B121.931.9360.0060.000.390.39
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.921.9260.0060.000.380.38
USCP121.851.8571.8871.880.810.81
Washington St.P121.841.8441.3841.38-0.32-0.32
NorthwesternB101.821.8266.6766.670.610.61
Utah St.MWC1.791.7941.3841.38-0.31-0.31
Texas St.SB0.250.2558.0658.060.040.04
Little RockSB0.230.2343.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.220.2256.2556.250.030.03
MemphisAmer0.220.2259.3859.380.040.04
SMUAmer0.210.2188.2488.240.160.16
Arizona St.P120.200.2045.4545.45-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.190.1935.4835.48-0.06-0.06
RiceCUSA0.170.1764.5264.520.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Louisiana MonroeSB0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
PurdueB100.150.1578.1278.120.080.08
UCFAmer0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
UtahP120.150.1562.0762.070.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.140.1412.9012.90-0.11-0.11
CincinnatiAmer0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
UCLAP120.140.1487.8887.880.110.11
WashingtonP120.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Texas A&MSEC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
TexasB120.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
BaylorB120.120.1277.4277.420.060.06
CaliforniaP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
ColoradoP120.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
ArizonaP120.110.1188.2488.240.090.09
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
WisconsinB100.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
NevadaMWC0.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
IdahoBSky0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Kansas St.B120.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
IndianaB100.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
WyomingMWC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Iowa St.B120.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
OregonP120.080.0884.8584.850.060.06
ButlerBE0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
MichiganB100.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
MarylandB100.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
RutgersB100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.070.0775.7675.760.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0783.3383.330.040.04
SamfordSC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0687.5087.500.050.05
KentuckySEC0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
KansasB120.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
DePaulBE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
MontanaBSky0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
ArmyPat0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0681.2581.250.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00