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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


New Orleans

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:218.0
Current RPI:223
Expected SOS:278
Current SOS:206
Current Record:6-10
Expected Record:12-14
Current Conf Record:6-2
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:0-8
Expected OOC Record:0-8
Expected OOC RPI:280
Expected OOC SOS:14



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-10136.10.20%
15-11154.42.19%
14-12174.89.16%
13-13194.819.25%
12-14214.127.07%
11-15232.322.68%
10-16250.813.41%
9-17270.54.78%
8-18288.91.14%
7-19304.70.10%
6-20323.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Orleans.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10St. John's (95.3)BEA77-61L0%0.0
11-13Oakland (137.4)HorzA87-68L0%0.0
11-21Memphis (118.6)AmerA63-52L0%0.0
11-26South Alabama (235.0)SBA55-52L0%0.0
11-29Houston (42.5)AmerA75-66L0%0.0
12-13SMU (42.6)AmerA79-66L0%0.0
12-16Louisiana Lafayette (62.2)SBA87-65L0%0.0
12-20UAB (126.6)CUSAA74-67L0%0.0
12-28Abilene Christian (227.7)SlndH77-74W100%0.0
12-30Houston Baptist (334.4)SlndA57-64W100%0.0
1-3Lamar (226.9)SlndH72-62W100%0.0
1-6McNeese St. (297.1)SlndA75-82W100%0.0
1-10Stephen F. Austin (123.5)SlndA78-68L0%0.0
1-13Texas A&M Corpus Chris (335.5)SlndH61-55W100%0.0
1-17Central Arkansas (237.0)SlndH57-81L0%0.0
1-20Incarnate Word (338.0)SlndH74-70W100%0.0
1-24Northwestern St. (338.0)SlndA0-072%6.5
1-27Incarnate Word (338.0)SlndA0-065%4.2
1-31Northwestern St. (338.0)SlndH0-088%12.9
2-3Nicholls St. (200.2)SlndH0-058%2.4
2-10Texas A&M Corpus Chris (335.5)SlndA0-055%1.3
2-14Southeastern Louisiana (205.0)SlndA0-036%-4.0
2-17McNeese St. (297.1)SlndH0-077%8.3
2-21Sam Houston St. (221.0)SlndA0-031%-5.5
2-24Nicholls St. (200.2)SlndA0-036%-4.0
2-28Southeastern Louisiana (205.0)SlndH0-059%2.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Orleans's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Orleans's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Orleans.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New OrleansSlnd26.4726.3743.3351.71-3.530.90
McNeese St.Slnd3.604.7830.7732.99-1.38-1.63
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.664.7652.9455.210.040.50
Nicholls St.Slnd0.714.7650.0051.260.000.12
Northwestern St.Slnd0.514.747.1414.35-0.43-3.38
Incarnate WordSlnd3.604.688.3320.31-3.00-2.78
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.304.658.3323.34-2.75-2.48
Houston BaptistSlnd3.432.926.2520.06-3.00-1.75
LamarSlnd3.542.8953.3357.000.240.40
Abilene ChristianSlnd3.512.8856.2554.670.440.27
Central ArkansasSlnd3.552.8742.1147.54-0.56-0.14
Stephen F. AustinSlnd3.342.8478.5778.031.911.59
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.602.8043.7548.37-0.07-0.09
Louisiana LafayetteSB3.242.2182.3580.712.091.35
HoustonAmer3.362.1777.7872.061.860.96
SMUAmer3.122.1068.4269.591.150.82
MemphisAmer3.212.0263.1657.150.850.29
South AlabamaSB3.121.9947.0643.94-0.18-0.24
UABCUSA3.201.9558.8262.850.570.50
OaklandHorz3.121.9260.0064.000.620.54
St. John'sBE3.121.9244.4440.16-0.35-0.38
TulaneAmer0.400.3663.1657.890.110.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.270.3426.6729.04-0.13-0.14
UCFAmer0.240.2668.4260.860.090.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.320.2645.0045.03-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.480.2557.8950.210.080.00
Little RockSB0.320.2322.2225.25-0.18-0.11
TulsaAmer0.410.1955.0053.320.040.01
CincinnatiAmer0.160.1989.4785.550.120.13
East CarolinaAmer0.080.1942.1132.47-0.01-0.07
South FloridaAmer0.160.1935.0026.12-0.05-0.09
Coastal CarolinaSB0.370.1727.7838.14-0.16-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.160.1768.4270.810.060.07
TroySB0.170.1735.2942.76-0.05-0.02
Wichita St.Amer0.240.1678.9577.380.140.09
Loyola MarymountWCC0.230.1627.7829.10-0.10-0.07
UTEPCUSA0.220.1533.3334.10-0.07-0.05
MississippiSEC0.210.1552.6345.860.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.100.1511.1117.68-0.08-0.09
BaylorB120.200.1461.1156.090.040.02
UTSACUSA0.210.1441.1839.65-0.04-0.03
VillanovaBE0.080.1494.7490.310.070.11
Arkansas St.SB0.180.1427.7831.11-0.08-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.280.1452.6355.290.010.01
LSUSEC0.260.1361.1153.170.060.01
ProvidenceBE0.260.1370.0060.470.100.03
TempleAmer0.240.1352.6351.740.010.00
ConnecticutAmer0.080.1352.6347.390.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.110.1144.4446.65-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.1164.7166.850.000.04
UMBCAE0.080.1055.5655.540.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.100.0010.67-0.09-0.08
SamfordSC0.080.1027.7832.66-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.170.1033.3337.23-0.06-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.1066.6765.370.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.090.1066.6765.520.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.170.1041.1838.47-0.03-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.170.1060.0062.030.030.02
DetroitHorz0.170.1021.0525.97-0.10-0.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.0966.6773.210.050.04
FloridaSEC0.120.0873.6871.560.060.03
GonzagaWCC0.120.0880.9583.260.070.05
UMKCWAC0.120.0821.0524.75-0.07-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0845.0041.330.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.120.0866.6755.940.040.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.0843.7554.11-0.010.01
OklahomaB120.000.0877.7867.910.000.03
PittsburghACC0.110.0840.0030.87-0.02-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.110.0858.8262.820.020.02
TexasB120.000.0863.1657.630.000.01
UtahP120.000.0863.1659.710.000.01
LipscombASun0.180.0752.9459.340.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0727.7827.100.00-0.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0757.8954.500.000.01
Texas TechB120.180.0778.9571.810.100.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0736.8444.110.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0744.4444.920.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0763.1661.020.000.02
ValparaisoMVC0.000.0747.3748.770.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.190.0766.6763.200.060.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.180.0742.1146.09-0.03-0.01
FIUCUSA0.170.0735.2935.54-0.05-0.02
IowaB100.170.0747.6244.02-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.090.0768.4263.650.030.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0772.2274.710.040.03
RichmondA100.170.0731.5834.36-0.06-0.02
Michigan St.B100.170.0785.0083.200.120.04
ButlerBE0.000.0666.6763.070.000.02
CreightonBE0.080.0675.0070.700.040.03
DePaulBE0.080.0642.1134.31-0.01-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.160.0668.4254.070.060.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0668.4260.550.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.160.0623.5328.69-0.08-0.03
Seton HallBE0.080.0675.0067.890.040.02
XavierBE0.080.0685.7180.080.060.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0620.0023.34-0.04-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.0646.6746.97-0.01-0.00
Green BayHorz0.070.0625.0027.94-0.04-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0642.1146.00-0.01-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.000.0627.7829.830.00-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0645.0047.07-0.01-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.070.0668.4269.250.030.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0621.0523.51-0.04-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.090.0437.5031.76-0.02-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0458.8249.760.02-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.0429.4133.20-0.04-0.01
CampbellBSth0.090.0447.0647.41-0.01-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0462.5058.690.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0466.6765.640.000.01
DuquesneA100.100.0470.0058.090.040.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.0410.0019.63-0.08-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.100.0416.6716.16-0.07-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0472.2258.920.050.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.0455.5656.740.010.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.0444.4450.31-0.010.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0433.3332.940.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.0455.0052.470.010.00
UC DavisBW0.100.0458.8262.440.020.01
USC UpstateASun0.090.0411.1118.00-0.07-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0466.6766.020.000.01
BelmontOVC0.090.0371.4374.660.040.02
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0368.4254.090.030.00
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0336.8435.57-0.02-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0368.4257.740.030.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0310.5316.75-0.07-0.02
AuburnSEC0.090.0389.4777.000.070.02
BuffaloMAC0.090.0372.2274.930.040.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0323.5325.640.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0322.2228.59-0.05-0.01
ClemsonACC0.090.0384.2173.240.060.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0329.4133.93-0.04-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0337.5037.68-0.02-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0333.3333.77-0.03-0.01
La SalleA100.090.0340.0042.69-0.02-0.00
MaineAE0.090.0310.5314.83-0.07-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0378.9576.750.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0327.7834.50-0.04-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0336.8432.76-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.090.0333.3336.93-0.03-0.01
WyomingMWC0.090.0361.1156.830.020.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0312.5025.45-0.06-0.02
Arizona St.P120.080.0378.9576.130.050.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.0368.4264.200.030.01
CaliforniaP120.080.0336.8431.12-0.02-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0352.3848.530.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.080.0330.0030.99-0.03-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0389.4785.210.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0338.8944.08-0.02-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0370.0071.230.030.01
IonaMAAC0.080.0360.0064.110.020.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0350.0054.190.000.00
NebraskaB100.080.0366.6759.820.030.01
OregonP120.080.0365.0063.850.020.01
Oregon St.P120.080.0357.8950.840.010.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0321.0539.48-0.05-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0330.0033.47-0.03-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0350.0051.640.000.00
Saint LouisA100.080.0347.3746.92-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0350.0048.730.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0327.7831.71-0.03-0.01
UCLAP120.080.0365.0062.050.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.080.0342.1140.46-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.080.0368.4258.980.030.01
AlbanyAE0.080.0371.4370.240.030.01
ArizonaP120.080.0380.0078.940.050.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0330.0036.50-0.03-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.080.0378.9576.990.050.02
BryantNEC0.080.039.5217.12-0.06-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.080.0323.5328.21-0.04-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.030.003.07-0.07-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.070.0352.6351.690.000.00
KansasB120.070.0384.2179.750.050.02
LouisvilleACC0.080.0378.9569.790.050.01
Loyola MDPat0.080.0322.2228.66-0.04-0.01
MercerSC0.080.0344.4454.86-0.010.00
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0344.4450.08-0.010.00
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0330.0032.52-0.03-0.01
SienaMAAC0.080.0328.5729.94-0.03-0.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0368.4261.230.030.01
TCUB120.080.0373.6865.600.040.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0321.0544.26-0.04-0.00
ToledoMAC0.070.0366.6767.700.020.01
TowsonCAA0.070.0363.1665.970.020.01
USCP120.080.0371.4368.280.030.01
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0352.9452.230.000.00