New Orleans

Conference:	ind
Expected RPI:	346.0
Current RPI:	346
Expected SOS:	338
Current SOS:	338
Current Record:	4-18
Expected Record:	4-18
Current Conf Record:	0-0
Expected Conf Record:	0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-13
Current OOC Record:	4-18
Expected OOC Record:	4-18
Expected OOC RPI:	344
Expected OOC SOS:	341

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
4-18	346.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Orleans.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	San Jose St. (261.0)	WAC	H	72-68	W	100%
11-12	Southern Illinois (192.0)	MVC	H	55-72	L	0%
11-15	Bethune Cookman (277.0)	MEAC	H	65-71	L	0%
11-26	Nicholls St. (296.0)	Slnd	A	92-79	L	0%
11-29	Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)	OVC	H	67-83	L	0%
12-8	Duquesne (229.0)	A10	A	88-70	L	0%
12-12	Nicholls St. (296.0)	Slnd	H	79-76	W	100%
12-17	Southern Illinois (192.0)	MVC	A	74-61	L	0%
12-19	Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)	OVC	A	94-71	L	0%
12-23	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	N	67-51	L	0%
1-3	Mississippi St. (232.0)	SEC	A	97-46	L	0%
1-5	Butler (22.0)	A10	A	57-44	L	0%
1-8	San Jose St. (261.0)	WAC	A	71-64	L	0%
1-19	Rice (324.0)	CUSA	A	95-71	L	0%
1-21	NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)	GWC	H	96-94	W	100%
1-23	Air Force (80.0)	MWC	A	90-48	L	0%
2-6	Texas Pan American (306.0)	GWC	H	75-73	W	100%
2-9	Houston Baptist (310.0)	GWC	H	68-75	L	0%
2-21	Bowling Green (274.0)	MAC	A	87-56	L	0%
2-23	NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)	GWC	A	84-64	L	0%
2-25	Houston Baptist (310.0)	GWC	A	65-52	L	0%
3-3	Texas Pan American (306.0)	GWC	A	71-57	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Orleans's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

New Orleans's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against New Orleans.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
New Orleans	ind	26.42	26.42	14.29	14.29	-18.87	-18.87
Houston Baptist	GWC	5.02	5.02	34.62	34.62	-1.54	-1.54
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	4.95	4.95	47.83	47.83	-0.22	-0.22
Texas Pan American	GWC	4.89	4.89	42.31	42.31	-0.75	-0.75
Nicholls St.	Slnd	4.62	4.62	28.57	28.57	-1.98	-1.98
Southern Illinois	MVC	4.62	4.62	39.29	39.29	-0.99	-0.99
San Jose St.	WAC	4.55	4.55	26.92	26.92	-2.10	-2.10
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	4.55	4.55	44.83	44.83	-0.47	-0.47
Boise St.	MWC	2.35	2.35	64.29	64.29	0.67	0.67
Rice	CUSA	2.35	2.35	10.71	10.71	-1.85	-1.85
Air Force	MWC	2.35	2.35	51.85	51.85	0.09	0.09
Butler	A10	2.31	2.31	75.00	75.00	1.16	1.16
Duquesne	A10	2.31	2.31	24.14	24.14	-1.19	-1.19
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	2.27	2.27	35.48	35.48	-0.66	-0.66
Bowling Green	MAC	2.27	2.27	34.48	34.48	-0.71	-0.71
Mississippi St.	SEC	2.27	2.27	29.03	29.03	-0.95	-0.95
Chicago St.	GWC	0.71	0.71	25.00	25.00	-0.35	-0.35
Utah Valley	GWC	0.59	0.59	35.71	35.71	-0.17	-0.17
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.45	0.45	59.38	59.38	0.08	0.08
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.38	0.38	35.48	35.48	-0.11	-0.11
Utah St.	WAC	0.31	0.31	66.67	66.67	0.10	0.10
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.30	0.30	28.00	28.00	-0.13	-0.13
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.30	0.30	39.29	39.29	-0.06	-0.06
Houston	CUSA	0.28	0.28	60.00	60.00	0.06	0.06
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.27	0.27	31.25	31.25	-0.10	-0.10
Tulane	CUSA	0.27	0.27	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.26	0.26	39.29	39.29	-0.06	-0.06
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.25	0.25	14.29	14.29	-0.18	-0.18
Texas St.	WAC	0.24	0.24	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.24	0.24	80.65	80.65	0.14	0.14
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.24	0.24	22.58	22.58	-0.13	-0.13
Fresno St.	MWC	0.24	0.24	32.14	32.14	-0.08	-0.08
Bradley	MVC	0.23	0.23	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.23	0.23	9.68	9.68	-0.19	-0.19
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.23	0.23	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.23	0.23	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.23	0.23	29.03	29.03	-0.10	-0.10
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.23	0.23	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.22	0.22	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
St. Louis	A10	0.22	0.22	81.82	81.82	0.14	0.14
Army	Pat	0.21	0.21	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.20	0.20	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Seattle	WAC	0.20	0.20	24.14	24.14	-0.10	-0.10
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.20	0.20	72.73	72.73	0.09	0.09
San Diego St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
Wichita St.	MVC	0.19	0.19	76.47	76.47	0.10	0.10
Creighton	MVC	0.19	0.19	79.41	79.41	0.11	0.11
Drake	MVC	0.19	0.19	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.19	0.19	26.67	26.67	-0.09	-0.09
Evansville	MVC	0.19	0.19	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.18	0.18	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
Denver	WAC	0.16	0.16	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.16	0.16	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.16	0.16	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	74.19	74.19	0.08	0.08
Nevada	MWC	0.16	0.16	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.16	0.16	85.29	85.29	0.11	0.11
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.16	0.16	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.15	0.15	85.29	85.29	0.11	0.11
Michigan St.	B10	0.15	0.15	75.00	75.00	0.08	0.08
Illinois St.	MVC	0.15	0.15	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.15	0.15	70.37	70.37	0.06	0.06
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.15	0.15	85.19	85.19	0.11	0.11
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.15	0.15	17.86	17.86	-0.10	-0.10
Temple	A10	0.15	0.15	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
Austin Peay	OVC	0.15	0.15	20.69	20.69	-0.09	-0.09
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.15	0.15	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Murray St.	OVC	0.15	0.15	65.52	65.52	0.05	0.05
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.15	0.15	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.15	0.15	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.15	0.15	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.15	0.15	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.13	0.13	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.12	0.12	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.12	0.12	7.14	7.14	-0.10	-0.10
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Texas A&M	SEC	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Kent St.	MAC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.11	0.11	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.11	0.11	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Xavier	A10	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.09	0.09	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.09	0.09	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Lafayette	Pat	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.08	0.08	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Buffalo	MAC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Western Kentucky	SB	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.07	0.07	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Belmont	OVC	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.07	0.07	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
George Washington	A10	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.07	0.07	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.07	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.04	0.04	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.04	0.04	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.04	0.04	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.04	0.04	14.29	14.29	-0.03	-0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.04	0.04	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.04	0.04	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.04	0.04	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Hartford	AE	0.04	0.04	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.04	0.04	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.04	0.04	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.04	0.04	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.04	0.04	88.24	88.24	0.03	0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.04	0.04	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.04	0.04	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.04	0.04	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.04	0.04	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.04	0.04	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.04	0.04	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.04	0.04	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.04	0.04	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.04	0.04	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.04	0.04	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.04	0.04	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.04	0.04	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.04	0.04	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Maine	AE	0.04	0.04	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.04	0.04	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.04	0.04	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.04	0.04	13.79	13.79	-0.03	-0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.04	0.04	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.04	0.04	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.04	0.04	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.04	0.04	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.04	0.04	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.04	0.04	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.04	0.04	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.04	0.04	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.04	0.04	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.04	0.04	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.04	0.04	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.04	0.04	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.04	0.04	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.04	0.04	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.04	0.04	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.04	0.04	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.04	0.04	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.04	0.04	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.04	0.04	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.04	0.04	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.04	0.04	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.04	0.04	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	93.75	93.75	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01