live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


New Orleans

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:277.6
Current RPI:249
Expected SOS:324
Current SOS:27
Current Record:0-4
Expected Record:9-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-6
Current OOC Record:0-4
Expected OOC Record:0-6
Expected OOC RPI:279
Expected OOC SOS:20



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-8127.40.05%
15-9146.40.23%
14-10171.41.02%
13-11194.43.67%
12-12220.28.20%
11-13245.214.32%
10-14270.020.05%
9-15291.220.46%
8-16308.416.34%
7-17321.09.79%
6-18331.04.11%
5-19338.11.30%
4-20344.40.35%
3-21347.40.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Orleans.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-20TCU (65.6)B12A86-71L0%0.0
11-28Texas A&M (54.7)SECA87-65L0%0.0
11-30Denver (189.8)SumA79-60L0%0.0
12-13San Diego (88.7)WCCA85-60L0%0.0
12-19Southern Illinois (203.8)MVCA0-021%-9.7
12-22Indiana (78.8)B10A0-05%-19.4
1-5Lamar (281.4)SlndH0-070%6.1
1-10Sam Houston St. (101.2)SlndH0-022%-9.3
1-12Incarnate Word (115.7)SlndA0-09%-15.6
1-17Houston Baptist (259.1)SlndA0-033%-5.1
1-19Stephen F. Austin (74.7)SlndA0-05%-19.9
1-24Texas A&M Corpus Chris (325.0)SlndH0-080%10.0
1-26Central Arkansas (342.4)SlndH0-085%12.4
1-31McNeese St. (237.6)SlndA0-028%-6.9
2-2Nicholls St. (333.9)SlndA0-061%3.4
2-7Central Arkansas (342.4)SlndA0-062%3.5
2-9McNeese St. (237.6)SlndH0-057%2.1
2-16Texas A&M Corpus Chris (325.0)SlndA0-054%1.1
2-21Northwestern St. (278.1)SlndH0-065%4.6
2-23Southeastern Louisiana (240.5)SlndA0-027%-7.4
2-28Abilene Christian (319.8)SlndH0-079%9.6
3-2Nicholls St. (333.9)SlndH0-085%12.3
3-5Southeastern Louisiana (240.5)SlndH0-055%1.6
3-7Northwestern St. (278.1)SlndA0-036%-4.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Orleans's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Orleans's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Orleans.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New OrleansSlnd27.5826.380.0042.74-27.58-3.83
McNeese St.Slnd0.625.1725.0048.31-0.31-0.17
Northwestern St.Slnd0.695.170.0034.63-0.69-1.59
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.005.1611.1142.36-0.00-0.79
Central ArkansasSlnd0.005.160.0015.17-0.00-3.59
Nicholls St.Slnd0.005.140.0018.74-0.00-3.21
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.695.0728.5726.28-0.30-2.41
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.693.0950.0073.850.001.47
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.003.0862.5077.390.001.69
LamarSlnd0.003.0714.2932.30-0.00-1.09
Incarnate WordSlnd0.003.0666.6773.080.001.41
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.003.0620.0026.67-0.00-1.43
Houston BaptistSlnd0.003.0220.0038.35-0.00-0.70
DenverSum12.502.2337.5053.45-3.120.15
Texas A&MSEC12.502.2175.0064.876.250.66
TCUB1212.502.17100.0066.3612.500.71
IndianaB100.002.1280.0056.320.000.27
San DiegoWCC12.502.0850.0056.370.000.27
Southern IllinoisMVC0.002.0860.0049.220.00-0.03
BaylorB120.690.2288.8975.070.540.11
OklahomaB120.000.2277.7868.030.000.08
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.570.2144.4447.24-0.06-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.1977.7861.940.000.05
BradleyMVC0.620.1833.3332.65-0.21-0.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1742.8652.83-0.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1770.0066.510.000.06
TroySB0.000.1633.3341.99-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.620.1557.1447.630.09-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.1587.5047.890.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.1566.6742.930.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1437.5051.76-0.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.690.1490.0079.360.560.08
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.620.1410.0018.39-0.50-0.09
GonzagaWCC0.000.1490.0091.020.000.12
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1437.5031.71-0.00-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1450.0050.190.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1488.8964.140.000.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.1242.8636.73-0.00-0.03
UCLAP120.570.1272.7357.470.260.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.1277.7871.340.000.05
MichiganB100.000.1255.5642.720.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.1290.9188.300.000.09
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1240.0044.19-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1244.4449.60-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.1166.6772.150.000.05
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1120.0033.83-0.00-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1122.2230.22-0.00-0.04
South DakotaSum0.000.1120.0040.86-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.620.110.0038.78-0.62-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.1155.5631.620.00-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1166.6754.790.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.1166.6759.740.000.02
RadfordBSth0.620.1150.0054.960.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.1142.8635.74-0.00-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.690.1171.4356.890.300.01
Iowa St.B120.000.1188.8964.670.000.03
New MexicoMWC0.690.1166.6758.510.230.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.100.0017.65-0.00-0.07
Kansas St.B120.000.1060.0038.270.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0816.6725.01-0.00-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0883.3363.180.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0833.3347.11-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0855.5655.960.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0850.0037.860.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0883.3358.570.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0855.5657.230.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0842.8644.92-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.570.0827.2737.98-0.26-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0842.8644.96-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0860.0047.810.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0866.6744.720.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.570.0775.0067.800.280.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0736.3639.31-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0766.6770.530.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0711.1145.10-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.570.0780.0071.140.340.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0766.6776.390.000.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0722.2231.80-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0742.8639.29-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0766.6767.890.000.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0750.0046.750.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0766.6772.470.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.0772.7351.370.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0757.1456.130.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0720.0026.66-0.00-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0728.5722.66-0.00-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0720.0047.17-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0755.5656.150.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0744.4444.67-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0742.8638.51-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0771.4360.450.000.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0775.0049.190.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0750.0041.450.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0757.1454.620.000.01
Western MichiganMAC1.140.0762.5054.950.280.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0766.6755.560.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0737.5032.05-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0720.0020.57-0.00-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0775.0070.380.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0760.0064.780.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0762.5065.100.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0733.3334.47-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0744.4431.46-0.00-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0742.8638.69-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0750.0048.280.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0787.5054.670.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0750.0030.140.00-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0787.5085.930.000.05
WinthropBSth0.000.0733.3351.71-0.000.00
MississippiSEC0.620.0766.6751.450.210.00
KansasB120.000.0788.8969.900.000.03
MarylandB100.000.0790.9167.920.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0770.0070.960.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.0788.8984.020.000.05
PurdueB100.000.0772.7363.400.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0760.0035.390.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.0790.0081.780.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.0790.0067.550.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0422.2242.30-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0455.5655.850.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0433.3338.84-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0444.4440.58-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0442.8643.01-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0422.2236.43-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0471.4350.790.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.0475.0077.280.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0440.0050.27-0.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0450.0059.030.000.01
BelmontOVC0.690.0460.0062.380.140.01
BryantNEC0.000.0428.5746.92-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.04100.0077.640.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.690.040.0014.53-0.69-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.570.040.0013.10-0.57-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.690.0416.6733.31-0.46-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0455.5639.850.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.570.0477.7875.600.320.02
StanfordP120.690.0471.4361.160.300.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.570.0437.5064.38-0.140.01
WyomingMWC0.690.0477.7873.060.390.02
Arizona St.P120.690.0360.0053.940.140.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0011.59-0.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.690.0350.0045.540.00-0.00
DaytonA100.690.0377.7869.570.390.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.380.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0050.920.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0020.84-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0371.4360.170.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0094.460.000.03
MercerSC0.000.0337.5041.09-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0058.490.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0023.06-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0362.5064.900.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0357.1445.530.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.540.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0370.0064.560.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.690.0350.0051.120.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.0380.0072.430.000.02
FurmanSC0.620.0325.0029.22-0.31-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0011.08-0.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.0370.0066.410.000.01
IowaB100.000.0372.7362.660.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.390.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0377.7864.850.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0390.9154.340.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0362.5053.840.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.73-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0322.2238.58-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.620.0340.0028.86-0.12-0.01