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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


New Orleans

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:260.0
Current RPI:260
Expected SOS:257
Current SOS:257
Current Record:8-14
Expected Record:8-14
Current Conf Record:7-9
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:1-5
Expected OOC Record:1-5
Expected OOC RPI:129
Expected OOC SOS:5



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-14260.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Orleans.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-19LSU (83.0)SECA81-54L0%0.0
11-23Boise St. (82.0)MWCH80-100L0%0.0
11-27Hawaii (160.0)BWA91-58L0%0.0
12-7Minnesota (50.0)B10A80-65L0%0.0
12-16UTEP (103.0)CUSAA69-71W100%0.0
12-28Michigan St. (18.0)B10A101-48L0%0.0
1-2Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndA88-83L0%0.0
1-4McNeese St. (272.0)SlndA82-69L0%0.0
1-16Lamar (344.0)SlndH77-55W100%0.0
1-18Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndH70-77L0%0.0
1-23Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndA66-79W100%0.0
1-25Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndA62-70W100%0.0
1-30Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndA85-90W100%0.0
2-6Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndA79-59L0%0.0
2-8Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndA79-88W100%0.0
2-13Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndH70-64W100%0.0
2-16McNeese St. (272.0)SlndH69-72L0%0.0
2-20Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndH67-58W100%0.0
2-27Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndH63-103L0%0.0
3-1Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndH71-84L0%0.0
3-6Lamar (344.0)SlndA89-72L0%0.0
3-8Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndA80-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Orleans's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Orleans's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Orleans.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New OrleansSlnd26.3026.3041.5141.51-4.47-4.47
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd5.585.5833.3333.33-1.86-1.86
Nicholls St.Slnd5.515.5145.8345.83-0.46-0.46
Sam Houston St.Slnd5.505.5066.6766.671.831.83
McNeese St.Slnd5.495.4920.0020.00-3.30-3.30
LamarSlnd5.385.387.697.69-4.55-4.55
Northwestern St.Slnd3.383.3846.1546.15-0.26-0.26
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.313.3155.5655.560.370.37
Stephen F. AustinSlnd3.313.3192.8692.862.832.83
Oral RobertsSlnd3.273.2742.8642.86-0.47-0.47
Houston BaptistSlnd3.193.1915.3815.38-2.21-2.21
Central ArkansasSlnd3.103.1025.0025.00-1.55-1.55
LSUSEC2.492.4958.0658.060.400.40
Michigan St.B102.392.3975.7675.761.231.23
MinnesotaB102.352.3558.0658.060.380.38
UTEPCUSA2.312.3170.0070.000.930.93
Boise St.MWC2.312.3158.0658.060.370.37
HawaiiBW2.312.3160.7160.710.490.49
North TexasCUSA0.300.3044.8344.83-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.230.2353.1253.120.010.01
MichiganB100.210.2175.7675.760.110.11
WisconsinB100.210.2178.7978.790.120.12
Louisiana TechCUSA0.210.2178.7978.790.120.12
RiceCUSA0.210.2117.8617.86-0.13-0.13
UTSACUSA0.200.2022.2222.22-0.11-0.11
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.200.2025.8125.81-0.10-0.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.200.2045.4545.45-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
IndianaB100.190.1953.1253.120.010.01
KentuckySEC0.180.1870.5970.590.070.07
IowaB100.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
Penn St.B100.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.170.1742.4242.42-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.170.1770.9770.970.070.07
SMUAmer0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
MissouriSEC0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
East CarolinaCUSA0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.160.1687.1087.100.120.12
Colorado St.MWC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.140.1473.5373.530.060.06
TroySB0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
Texas TechB120.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
ButlerBE0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.120.1280.6580.650.070.07
TexasB120.110.1169.7069.700.050.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
NevadaMWC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
IUPUISum0.090.0910.3410.34-0.07-0.07
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Kansas St.B120.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
BaylorB120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
George MasonA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0846.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
ToledoMAC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
UC DavisBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0834.6234.62-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
TulsaCUSA0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
MontanaBSky0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
OklahomaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
UABCUSA0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
NebraskaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.040.0436.3636.36-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0421.2121.21-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.040.0428.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.040.0427.5927.59-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.040.0451.5251.520.000.00
IPFWSum0.040.0467.7467.740.010.01
AkronMAC0.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
Saint LouisA100.040.0480.6580.650.020.02
SamfordSC0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0413.7913.79-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.040.0423.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0470.9770.970.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.040.04100.00100.000.040.04
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
DenverSum0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA0.040.0446.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.040.0472.7372.730.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0470.9770.970.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.040.0448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0442.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.040.0460.0060.000.010.01
FloridaSEC0.040.0494.1294.120.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
IdahoWAC0.040.0445.4545.45-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.040.0443.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.040.0475.0075.000.020.02
MississippiSEC0.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.040.0451.7251.720.000.00
RichmondA100.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0472.7372.730.020.02
SeattleWAC0.040.0439.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.040.0457.1457.140.010.01
SyracuseACC0.040.0484.3884.380.020.02
WoffordSC0.040.0458.6258.620.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01