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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


New Orleans

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:298.6
Current RPI:190
Expected SOS:278
Current SOS:83
Current Record:1-3
Expected Record:8-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-8
Current OOC Record:1-3
Expected OOC Record:1-7
Expected OOC RPI:293
Expected OOC SOS:112



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-10151.50.02%
15-11162.10.07%
14-12183.80.38%
13-13208.91.00%
12-14228.33.08%
11-15249.56.64%
10-16270.412.22%
9-17288.616.71%
8-18304.219.57%
7-19317.417.82%
6-20327.712.54%
5-21335.56.66%
4-22341.42.46%
3-23345.10.68%
2-24347.20.12%
1-25350.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Orleans.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Oklahoma St. (58.3)B12A117-72L0%0.0
11-19Tulsa (186.7)AmerA77-68L0%0.0
11-22USC (44.4)P12A88-54L0%0.0
11-29Tulane (269.7)AmerH74-59W100%0.0
12-3Washington St. (196.7)P12A0-012%-13.9
12-11Northwestern (60.3)B10A0-01%-26.7
12-17Louisiana Lafayette (110.0)SBH0-020%-10.2
12-19Utah St. (105.4)MWCA0-07%-18.1
12-29Abilene Christian (201.3)SlndH0-035%-4.5
12-31Texas A&M Corpus Chris (124.7)SlndH0-023%-9.1
1-5Lamar (290.4)SlndA0-036%-4.4
1-7Incarnate Word (248.1)SlndA0-027%-7.3
1-12Sam Houston St. (171.2)SlndH0-032%-5.5
1-19Houston Baptist (222.2)SlndH0-045%-1.6
1-21Central Arkansas (282.4)SlndA0-036%-4.4
1-26McNeese St. (321.5)SlndH0-071%6.5
1-28Stephen F. Austin (172.6)SlndA0-014%-12.8
2-1Abilene Christian (201.3)SlndA0-019%-10.7
2-4Nicholls St. (267.2)SlndH0-059%2.8
2-9McNeese St. (321.5)SlndA0-051%0.4
2-11Southeastern Louisiana (203.3)SlndA0-020%-10.1
2-18Central Arkansas (282.4)SlndH0-056%1.8
2-23Stephen F. Austin (172.6)SlndH0-029%-6.6
2-25Northwestern St. (292.4)SlndA0-036%-4.4
3-2Southeastern Louisiana (203.3)SlndH0-037%-4.0
3-4Nicholls St. (267.2)SlndA0-039%-3.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Orleans's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Orleans's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Orleans.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New OrleansSlnd29.0826.3425.0031.70-14.54-9.64
Central ArkansasSlnd1.044.8014.2927.42-0.74-2.17
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.894.7550.0055.310.000.50
Nicholls St.Slnd0.004.7042.8636.16-0.00-1.30
McNeese St.Slnd0.004.670.0018.42-0.00-2.95
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.004.6725.0054.84-0.000.45
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.004.6625.0051.58-0.000.15
Northwestern St.Slnd0.002.920.0032.75-0.00-1.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.002.91100.0069.460.001.13
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.002.8850.0058.250.000.47
Incarnate WordSlnd0.002.870.0036.46-0.00-0.78
Houston BaptistSlnd0.002.850.0037.81-0.00-0.70
LamarSlnd0.002.8360.0043.190.00-0.39
TulaneAmer12.502.1316.6727.74-8.33-0.95
TulsaAmer12.502.1050.0036.940.00-0.55
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.002.0766.6760.660.000.44
Oklahoma St.B1212.502.0680.0055.077.500.21
USCP1212.501.99100.0074.5312.500.98
Washington St.P120.001.9950.0035.000.00-0.60
NorthwesternB100.001.9671.4365.130.000.59
Utah St.MWC0.001.9250.0052.080.000.08
Texas TechB120.000.2585.7163.780.000.07
MemphisAmer0.000.2585.7159.740.000.05
Texas St.SB0.000.2450.0043.310.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.890.2457.1469.300.130.09
Little RockSB0.000.2260.0057.900.000.04
Arizona St.P120.890.2257.1436.050.13-0.06
OklahomaB120.890.2183.3351.920.600.01
RiceCUSA0.000.1985.7169.010.000.07
New MexicoMWC0.000.1871.4358.670.000.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1820.0032.60-0.00-0.06
UCFAmer0.000.1783.3374.620.000.08
PurdueB100.000.1771.4374.450.000.08
Oregon St.P121.250.1728.5723.76-0.54-0.09
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1525.0038.72-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.1483.3362.840.000.04
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1383.3361.490.000.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.1325.0056.92-0.000.02
TexasB120.000.1350.0036.240.00-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1385.7180.960.000.08
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1375.0047.510.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.1383.3376.370.000.07
South FloridaAmer0.000.1366.6732.240.00-0.05
CaliforniaP120.000.1383.3363.610.000.04
ArizonaP120.000.1385.7170.990.000.05
UCLAP120.000.13100.0083.550.000.09
WashingtonP120.000.1357.1452.630.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1385.7168.390.000.05
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1183.3350.740.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.110.0021.30-0.00-0.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1125.0024.28-0.00-0.06
Texas A&MSEC0.890.1166.6766.100.300.03
UNLVMWC0.000.1171.4349.590.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.1025.0043.26-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.890.1028.5727.50-0.38-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.000.1040.0030.80-0.00-0.04
IndianaB100.000.1083.3375.060.000.05
BaylorB120.000.10100.0074.460.000.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1040.0067.95-0.000.04
ConnecticutAmer1.040.1033.3338.76-0.35-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.1071.4363.570.000.03
ColoradoP120.000.1071.4359.850.000.02
UtahP120.000.1075.0061.040.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.1085.7155.890.000.01
OregonP120.000.1071.4366.730.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.09100.0075.690.000.05
MichiganB100.000.0971.4366.530.000.03
WisconsinB100.000.0975.0073.840.000.04
KentuckySEC0.000.08100.0086.250.000.06
LongwoodBSth0.000.0825.0024.66-0.00-0.04
New HampshireAE0.000.0850.0057.480.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0857.1461.940.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0766.6775.370.000.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0771.4350.570.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0728.5728.46-0.00-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0716.6731.91-0.00-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0750.0027.250.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0785.7162.410.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0771.4368.100.000.03
SamfordSC0.000.0757.1455.810.000.01
MissouriSEC0.890.0750.0045.920.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0760.0039.610.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0714.2929.81-0.00-0.03
IdahoBSky0.000.0740.0050.88-0.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0750.0042.710.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0750.0058.980.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0775.0070.470.000.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0775.0074.990.000.03
WyomingMWC0.000.0760.0048.590.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.890.0766.6739.720.30-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0740.0037.44-0.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0760.0058.950.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0780.0035.960.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0771.4368.660.000.02
Wichita St.MVC1.250.0771.4386.030.540.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0023.46-0.00-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0750.0045.410.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0760.0067.410.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.070.0042.55-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.070.0034.23-0.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0750.0062.460.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0742.8650.36-0.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0757.1464.940.000.02
MontanaBSky0.890.0714.2947.44-0.64-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0750.0035.230.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0775.0059.100.000.01
TroySB0.000.0733.3332.23-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0685.7165.670.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.970.000.02
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
North CarolinaACC1.930.0685.7180.011.380.04
TCUB120.000.06100.0059.480.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0683.3380.550.000.04
MarylandB100.000.0685.7156.490.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0633.3345.58-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0666.6769.810.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.0657.1442.660.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0041.93-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0650.0043.610.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0683.3344.770.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0650.0038.430.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.45-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0483.3357.990.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0433.3345.60-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0471.4363.090.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0471.4343.020.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0460.0052.760.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0433.3335.92-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.04100.0089.040.000.03
LibertyBSth0.000.0440.0050.71-0.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0480.0068.320.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0416.6732.62-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0450.0046.670.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0414.2928.66-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0066.170.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3346.81-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC1.250.0357.1447.320.18-0.00
NJITASun0.000.0342.8650.32-0.000.00
Oral RobertsSum1.250.030.0019.30-1.25-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.690.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0320.0054.94-0.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0328.5739.44-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.650.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0028.15-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0337.5036.24-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0383.3361.150.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.02
CampbellBSth1.040.0325.0033.54-0.52-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.63-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE1.040.0350.0047.560.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0375.0064.960.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.890.0333.3348.73-0.30-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0328.5733.92-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.890.030.0033.44-0.89-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5750.20-0.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0017.30-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6751.460.000.00
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0328.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0061.590.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0024.77-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0385.7172.660.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0371.4352.370.000.00