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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


New Orleans

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:312.3
Current RPI:320
Expected SOS:343
Current SOS:313
Current Record:5-13
Expected Record:9-17
Current Conf Record:4-6
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-7
Current OOC Record:1-7
Expected OOC Record:1-7
Expected OOC RPI:311
Expected OOC SOS:275



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-13247.10.33%
12-14265.12.44%
11-15282.110.00%
10-16298.421.81%
9-17313.527.55%
8-18326.523.30%
7-19336.411.20%
6-20342.52.95%
5-21346.40.41%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Orleans.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Bowling Green (198.5)MACA79-61L0%0.0
11-16Duquesne (114.3)A10A95-75L0%0.0
11-25Bradley (307.7)MVCA51-64W100%0.0
11-28Northwestern (120.4)B10A90-63L0%0.0
12-2Tulane (228.6)AmerA64-62L0%0.0
12-5Ball St. (168.1)MACA66-52L0%0.0
12-16Massachusetts (195.2)A10A103-95L0%0.0
12-21Louisiana Lafayette (106.7)SBA79-69L0%0.0
1-4Lamar (336.2)SlndA64-68W100%0.0
1-9Sam Houston St. (188.2)SlndA73-70L0%0.0
1-11Incarnate Word (189.6)SlndH68-71L0%0.0
1-16Houston Baptist (205.7)SlndH69-73L0%0.0
1-18Stephen F. Austin (96.4)SlndH58-82L0%0.0
1-23Texas A&M Corpus Chris (112.2)SlndA97-76L0%0.0
1-25Central Arkansas (319.9)SlndH94-83W100%0.0
1-30McNeese St. (329.6)SlndH76-64W100%0.0
2-1Nicholls St. (324.7)SlndH74-53W100%0.0
2-6Central Arkansas (319.9)SlndA112-77L0%0.0
2-11McNeese St. (329.6)SlndA0-044%-1.6
2-15Texas A&M Corpus Chris (112.2)SlndH0-031%-5.5
2-20Northwestern St. (332.0)SlndA0-043%-1.9
2-23Southeastern Louisiana (337.4)SlndA0-043%-2.0
2-27Abilene Christian (318.3)SlndA0-048%-0.7
2-29Nicholls St. (324.7)SlndA0-055%1.3
3-3Southeastern Louisiana (337.4)SlndH0-066%4.6
3-5Northwestern St. (332.0)SlndH0-067%4.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Orleans's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Orleans's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Orleans.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New OrleansSlnd26.3426.3331.0839.16-9.97-5.71
Central ArkansasSlnd5.964.7822.2228.51-3.31-2.06
McNeese St.Slnd3.284.7718.7529.12-2.05-1.99
Nicholls St.Slnd3.444.7619.0521.01-2.13-2.76
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.654.7514.2923.33-0.47-2.54
Northwestern St.Slnd0.724.7317.6524.90-0.46-2.37
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.434.6175.0071.351.711.97
Stephen F. AustinSlnd3.332.8670.5974.641.371.41
Sam Houston St.Slnd3.292.8242.1147.28-0.52-0.15
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.722.8235.0034.12-0.22-0.89
Incarnate WordSlnd3.192.8150.0050.070.000.00
LamarSlnd3.342.7931.5830.45-1.23-1.09
Houston BaptistSlnd3.342.7947.3747.84-0.18-0.12
MassachusettsA102.922.0238.1037.16-0.69-0.52
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.862.0055.5660.290.320.41
Ball St.MAC2.901.9959.0955.680.530.23
TulaneAmer2.851.9633.3332.75-0.95-0.68
Bowling GreenMAC2.841.9647.6243.88-0.14-0.24
BradleyMVC2.841.9612.5012.38-2.13-1.47
DuquesneA102.781.9659.0954.850.510.19
NorthwesternB102.781.9262.5060.820.690.42
Texas St.SB0.220.2236.8437.57-0.06-0.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.350.2190.4886.910.280.15
Central MichiganMAC0.210.2147.6249.35-0.01-0.00
OklahomaB120.300.1886.9682.580.220.12
TCUB120.120.1745.8339.35-0.01-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.260.1731.8232.69-0.09-0.06
NebraskaB100.060.1652.0050.780.000.00
SMUAmer0.190.1686.9682.900.140.11
DrakeMVC0.170.1620.8323.19-0.10-0.09
Louisiana MonroeSB0.150.1542.8646.35-0.02-0.01
MississippiSEC0.120.1462.5058.920.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.210.1442.8639.23-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.280.1426.0929.18-0.13-0.06
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1440.0042.85-0.03-0.02
UTSACUSA0.210.1413.6413.63-0.15-0.10
Texas A&MSEC0.070.1375.0075.330.030.07
Florida St.ACC0.060.1369.5764.900.020.04
TulsaAmer0.250.1366.6764.730.080.04
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1372.0071.540.050.06
Miami OHMAC0.190.1334.7833.05-0.06-0.04
OhioMAC0.180.1363.6461.480.050.03
Georgia TechACC0.120.1354.1751.980.010.01
HoustonAmer0.120.1370.8367.980.050.05
MemphisAmer0.120.1358.3359.360.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.120.1372.7370.400.060.05
BaylorB120.080.1273.9168.480.040.04
UCLAP120.150.1156.5253.270.020.01
ArizonaP120.060.1179.1778.330.030.06
RiceCUSA0.220.1128.5729.66-0.09-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.140.1145.8341.65-0.01-0.02
IndianaB100.140.1179.1774.060.080.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.210.1147.8348.87-0.01-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1068.1871.310.050.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.1025.0025.09-0.00-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.130.1033.3333.07-0.04-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.190.1056.0055.420.020.01
HowardMEAC0.200.1036.3638.93-0.06-0.02
PittsburghACC0.200.1072.7367.630.090.04
Illinois St.MVC0.120.1054.1750.990.010.00
PepperdineWCC0.190.1056.5257.280.030.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.1073.0872.640.060.05
RutgersB100.140.1021.7420.34-0.08-0.06
WisconsinB100.120.1062.5056.960.030.01
AkronMAC0.120.1082.6181.130.080.06
BuffaloMAC0.060.1056.5257.000.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.120.1065.2260.580.040.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.1061.9065.310.010.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.1040.0043.42-0.02-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1060.0057.640.000.01
ToledoMAC0.120.1060.8762.080.030.02
DavidsonA100.180.1061.9058.060.040.02
DaytonA100.180.1086.9682.150.140.06
FordhamA100.060.1052.3850.750.000.00
George WashingtonA100.120.1075.0071.920.060.04
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1050.0049.600.00-0.00
La SalleA100.120.1019.0520.33-0.08-0.06
Rhode IslandA100.060.1058.3357.220.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.1083.3381.320.040.06
Saint LouisA100.180.1034.7832.42-0.06-0.03
Penn St.B100.120.0950.0046.760.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.120.0950.0044.680.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0850.0053.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0839.1335.44-0.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.080.0862.5059.050.020.01
CaliforniaP120.150.0765.2262.830.050.02
Arizona St.P120.150.0754.1751.670.010.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0740.0038.97-0.01-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0757.8956.090.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.0733.3334.19-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.070.0723.8126.72-0.04-0.03
PurdueB100.080.0780.0077.960.050.04
Cal PolyBW0.070.0730.0034.55-0.03-0.02
ElonCAA0.070.0752.1750.420.000.00
FurmanSC0.070.0754.1754.080.010.01
TexasB120.070.0766.6762.210.020.02
LibertyBSth0.120.0734.7836.51-0.04-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.120.0752.0048.860.01-0.00
MichiganB100.070.0770.8366.720.030.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0724.0025.67-0.00-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0744.0045.35-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0769.5765.310.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0745.4547.54-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0759.0961.310.010.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0784.2181.660.040.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0750.0054.190.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0758.3360.690.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0769.5770.070.020.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.0747.6252.03-0.010.00
North DakotaBSky0.120.0747.3749.90-0.01-0.00
UMBCAE0.120.0724.0026.33-0.06-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0675.0076.190.030.03
George MasonA100.060.0633.3333.70-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.0645.8343.68-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.110.0637.5037.41-0.03-0.02
RichmondA100.060.0656.5255.730.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.0652.1754.140.010.01
VCUA100.060.0673.9174.060.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.110.0673.9176.740.050.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.0636.8442.89-0.03-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.120.064.357.72-0.11-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.0620.0022.26-0.07-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.110.0673.9172.580.050.03
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0641.6739.46-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.110.0687.5083.690.080.04
MinnesotaB100.110.0625.0027.23-0.06-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.110.0683.3378.400.070.04
Ohio St.B100.110.0660.0055.540.020.01
South FloridaAmer0.110.0620.0019.76-0.07-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0442.1145.67-0.01-0.00
St. John'sBE0.080.0425.0023.45-0.04-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.049.0912.25-0.06-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0463.6461.640.020.01
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0445.0046.11-0.01-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0445.4554.16-0.010.00
UABCUSA0.080.0482.6179.390.050.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0414.2915.45-0.05-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.070.0460.8755.970.020.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0431.8236.14-0.03-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0454.5552.540.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0471.4368.750.030.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0482.6177.520.050.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0457.1453.980.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0465.2268.590.020.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0468.0067.990.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0440.0038.51-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0440.0042.12-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0473.9174.700.030.02
Texas TechB120.070.0460.8755.300.020.00
UC IrvineBW0.070.0472.7371.660.030.02
UTEPCUSA0.070.0452.1751.940.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0321.7422.74-0.04-0.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0347.6245.85-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0313.6415.80-0.05-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0356.5257.020.010.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0330.4332.35-0.02-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0360.8760.530.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0356.0056.490.010.00
ClemsonACC0.060.0358.3358.370.010.01
CreightonBE0.060.0364.0062.040.020.01
DelawareCAA0.060.0321.7423.32-0.03-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0339.1341.03-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0352.0050.230.000.00
HarvardIvy0.060.0335.0038.52-0.02-0.01
IUPUISum0.060.0340.0039.76-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0322.7324.97-0.03-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0359.0959.650.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.060.0372.0069.150.030.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0328.0030.70-0.03-0.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0370.8368.100.020.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0350.0049.490.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.060.0365.2259.750.020.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0381.8283.030.040.02
VirginiaACC0.060.0383.3378.470.040.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0345.4546.21-0.01-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0366.6765.220.020.01
DePaulBE0.060.0333.3334.01-0.02-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0354.1754.110.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0345.8344.11-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.060.0382.6180.520.040.02
Loyola MDPat0.060.0333.3335.16-0.02-0.01
MercerSC0.060.0369.5769.040.020.01
Michigan St.B100.060.0380.0081.580.030.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0343.4843.76-0.01-0.00
MissouriSEC0.060.0333.3330.27-0.02-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.039.0917.14-0.05-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0334.7837.06-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0317.3920.66-0.04-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0331.5832.01-0.02-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6459.710.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0334.7835.64-0.02-0.01