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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Nebraska Omaha

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:132.0
Current RPI:132
Expected SOS:175
Current SOS:175
Current Record:17-14
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:100
Expected OOC SOS:103



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-14132.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nebraska Omaha.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWA60-74W100%0.0
11-13USC (40.0)P12A82-72L0%0.0
11-15Kansas St. (57.0)B12A81-68L0%0.0
11-19Rice (167.0)CUSAH87-100L0%0.0
11-26Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACA94-77L0%0.0
11-30Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWA73-83W100%0.0
12-3Iowa (81.0)B10A89-98W100%0.0
12-5Iowa St. (21.0)B12A91-47L0%0.0
12-10Montana St. (253.0)BSkyH97-91W100%0.0
12-15UMKC (184.0)WACA75-80W100%0.0
12-18Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWH102-96W100%0.0
12-21Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCA94-75L0%0.0
12-29South Dakota (123.0)SumA86-69L0%0.0
12-31North Dakota St. (111.0)SumA82-70L0%0.0
1-4Fort Wayne (178.0)SumH78-80L0%0.0
1-7South Dakota St. (160.0)SumA93-101W100%0.0
1-11IUPUI (218.0)SumA71-79W100%0.0
1-14Western Illinois (325.0)SumH86-72W100%0.0
1-18Denver (207.0)SumH97-88W100%0.0
1-21Oral Roberts (292.0)SumA103-86L0%0.0
1-28South Dakota St. (160.0)SumH84-88L0%0.0
2-1South Dakota (123.0)SumH91-83W100%0.0
2-4Western Illinois (325.0)SumA67-79W100%0.0
2-8IUPUI (218.0)SumH78-89L0%0.0
2-11Fort Wayne (178.0)SumA108-101L0%0.0
2-16Oral Roberts (292.0)SumH83-76W100%0.0
2-22Denver (207.0)SumA83-84W100%0.0
2-25North Dakota St. (111.0)SumH96-92W100%0.0
3-5Fort Wayne (178.0)SumN84-80W100%0.0
3-6IUPUI (218.0)SumN90-62W100%0.0
3-7South Dakota St. (160.0)SumA79-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nebraska Omaha's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nebraska Omaha's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nebraska Omaha.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Nebraska OmahaSum26.6726.6760.0060.005.335.33
South Dakota St.Sum5.875.8748.2848.28-0.20-0.20
IUPUISum5.815.8140.7440.74-1.08-1.08
Fort WayneSum5.725.7256.0056.000.690.69
South DakotaSum4.394.3965.5265.521.361.36
DenverSum4.254.2557.1457.140.610.61
North Dakota St.Sum4.244.2461.5461.540.980.98
Western IllinoisSum4.234.2325.0025.00-2.11-2.11
Oral RobertsSum4.164.1619.2319.23-2.56-2.56
Cal St. FullertonBW3.293.2955.5655.560.370.37
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.751.7519.2319.23-1.08-1.08
Montana St.BSky1.741.7448.2848.28-0.06-0.06
UMKCWAC1.741.7448.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Kansas St.B121.721.7259.3859.380.320.32
Eastern MichiganMAC1.721.7239.2939.29-0.37-0.37
Iowa St.B121.691.6968.7568.750.630.63
PittsburghACC1.671.6746.8846.88-0.10-0.10
RiceCUSA1.661.6663.3363.330.440.44
USCP121.641.6471.8871.880.720.72
IowaB101.641.6458.0658.060.260.26
UC IrvineBW0.320.3257.5857.580.050.05
UC DavisBW0.280.2862.5062.500.070.07
Miami OHMAC0.260.2630.0030.00-0.10-0.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.230.2335.7135.71-0.06-0.06
UC RiversideBW0.220.2222.2222.22-0.12-0.12
IdahoBSky0.200.2055.1755.170.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.200.2040.6240.62-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.190.1912.9012.90-0.14-0.14
MontanaBSky0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
BaylorB120.180.1877.4277.420.100.10
DrakeMVC0.180.1820.6920.69-0.10-0.10
West VirginiaB120.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
Austin PeayOVC0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.170.1731.0331.03-0.06-0.06
HawaiiBW0.170.1744.8344.83-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.170.1767.8667.860.060.06
Illinois St.MVC0.170.1781.2581.250.100.10
MilwaukeeHorz0.160.1629.4129.41-0.07-0.07
Sacramento St.BSky0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
WyomingMWC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
Notre DameACC0.140.1473.5373.530.060.06
IllinoisB100.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
WashingtonP120.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
KansasB120.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1244.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
TCUB120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1210.3410.34-0.09-0.09
DetroitHorz0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
PurdueB100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
StetsonASun0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
San DiegoWCC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.110.1188.2488.240.080.08
MichiganB100.110.1168.5768.570.040.04
NorthwesternB100.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.05-0.05
MarquetteBE0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
UCLAP120.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
Murray St.OVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
MarylandB100.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
VirginiaACC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
TexasB120.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
SeattleWAC0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0896.9796.970.070.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
AmericanPat0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
High PointBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
MississippiSEC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
NavyPat0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.063.333.33-0.05-0.05
OaklandHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
RichmondA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
XavierBE0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
OhioMAC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
PacificWCC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
ClemsonACC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
CornellIvy0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0277.1477.140.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01