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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Nebraska Omaha

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:144.0
Current RPI:144
Expected SOS:164
Current SOS:164
Current Record:16-13
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:10-7
Expected Conf Record:10-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-3
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:182
Expected OOC SOS:264



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13144.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nebraska Omaha.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWH59-60L0%0.0
11-17UMKC (286.0)WACH95-89W100%0.0
11-22Colorado (35.0)P12A87-82L0%0.0
11-25Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyA85-105W100%0.0
11-27Minnesota (257.0)B10A93-90L0%0.0
12-1Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACH73-80L0%0.0
12-6Montana St. (260.0)BSkyA97-100W100%0.0
12-9Missouri (222.0)SECA85-78L0%0.0
12-13Grand Canyon (91.0)WACA104-108W100%0.0
12-19Wyoming (187.0)MWCA76-75L0%0.0
12-21Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCN80-68W100%0.0
12-22Southern (186.0)SWACN53-74W100%0.0
1-1Western Illinois (262.0)SumH82-80W100%0.0
1-3IUPUI (189.0)SumH76-71W100%0.0
1-7North Dakota St. (120.0)SumA82-91W100%0.0
1-9South Dakota (197.0)SumA73-79W100%0.0
1-16IPFW (71.0)SumH101-106L0%0.0
1-21Denver (188.0)SumA55-69W100%0.0
1-23Oral Roberts (148.0)SumA79-85W100%0.0
1-28South Dakota St. (29.0)SumA87-76L0%0.0
1-30South Dakota (197.0)SumH96-83W100%0.0
2-3Western Illinois (262.0)SumA83-76L0%0.0
2-6Denver (188.0)SumH72-75L0%0.0
2-10South Dakota St. (29.0)SumH96-92W100%0.0
2-13North Dakota St. (120.0)SumH76-69W100%0.0
2-17IUPUI (189.0)SumA88-76L0%0.0
2-20IPFW (71.0)SumA94-90L0%0.0
2-25Oral Roberts (148.0)SumH102-98W100%0.0
3-6Denver (188.0)SumN70-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nebraska Omaha's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nebraska Omaha's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nebraska Omaha.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Nebraska OmahaSum26.4226.4258.3958.394.444.44
DenverSum6.116.1150.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum4.614.6179.3179.312.702.70
North Dakota St.Sum4.524.5262.0762.071.091.09
IPFWSum4.444.4468.9768.971.681.68
South DakotaSum4.444.4442.8642.86-0.63-0.63
IUPUISum4.384.3837.9337.93-1.06-1.06
Oral RobertsSum4.374.3744.4444.44-0.49-0.49
Western IllinoisSum4.364.3627.2727.27-1.98-1.98
UMKCWAC1.921.9233.3333.33-0.64-0.64
Montana St.BSky1.901.9044.8344.83-0.20-0.20
WyomingMWC1.891.8937.9337.93-0.46-0.46
Northern ColoradoBSky1.891.8928.5728.57-0.81-0.81
MinnesotaB101.871.8723.3323.33-1.00-1.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.871.8740.7440.74-0.35-0.35
Grand CanyonWAC1.811.8182.1482.141.171.17
SouthernSWAC1.781.7863.3363.330.480.48
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.781.7855.1755.170.180.18
ColoradoP121.751.7564.5264.520.510.51
Eastern MichiganMAC1.721.7246.4346.43-0.12-0.12
MissouriSEC1.721.7230.0030.00-0.69-0.69
Weber St.BSky0.280.2874.1974.190.140.14
Utah ValleyWAC0.260.2633.3333.33-0.09-0.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.240.2467.7467.740.090.09
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.230.2350.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.230.2348.2848.28-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.220.2244.1244.12-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.220.223.453.45-0.21-0.21
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.210.2172.4172.410.090.09
Austin PeayOVC0.200.2048.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.200.2038.7138.71-0.05-0.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.180.1818.5218.52-0.11-0.11
Sacramento St.BSky0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.170.1762.0762.070.040.04
North DakotaBSky0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
SeattleWAC0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.150.1521.4321.43-0.08-0.08
Portland St.BSky0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.140.1414.2914.29-0.10-0.10
IndianaB100.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
UC DavisBW0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
CreightonBE0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Western MichiganMAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
HawaiiBW0.110.1183.3383.330.080.08
San Jose St.MWC0.110.1121.4321.43-0.07-0.07
UNLVMWC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
UtahP120.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
WisconsinB100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
HoustonAmer0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
AkronMAC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
BuffaloMAC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
IdahoBSky0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
LSUSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
NevadaMWC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0922.8622.86-0.05-0.05
Kansas St.B120.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Penn St.B100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
LipscombASun0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Texas TechB120.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Oregon St.P120.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
WashingtonP120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
ArizonaP120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Washington St.P120.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0611.1111.11-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
OklahomaB120.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
TulsaAmer0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Michigan St.B100.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Arizona St.P120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
USCP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
MichiganB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
MississippiSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
NavyPat0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
UCLAP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00