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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Nebraska Omaha

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:300.0
Current RPI:300
Expected SOS:339
Current SOS:339
Current Record:11-17
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:5-11
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-9
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:284
Expected OOC SOS:350



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-17300.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nebraska Omaha.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Central Arkansas (349.0)SlndH100-75W100%0.0
11-19Seattle (280.0)WACA98-74L0%0.0
11-22Marquette (147.0)BEA89-97W100%0.0
11-25Nebraska (158.0)B10A80-67L0%0.0
11-29Nevada (306.0)MWCH78-54W100%0.0
12-2Kansas St. (100.0)B12A84-66L0%0.0
12-8Air Force (240.0)MWCA77-61L0%0.0
12-13UMKC (295.0)WACA79-72L0%0.0
12-17Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyH92-82W100%0.0
12-21Texas Pan American (334.0)WACH77-72W100%0.0
12-29Chicago St. (333.0)WACA69-66L0%0.0
1-2South Dakota (213.0)SumA77-86W100%0.0
1-4Western Illinois (328.0)SumA80-78L0%0.0
1-8North Dakota St. (92.0)SumH72-75L0%0.0
1-10South Dakota St. (90.0)SumH68-87L0%0.0
1-14Oral Roberts (163.0)SumA102-86L0%0.0
1-18IUPUI (260.0)SumH84-89L0%0.0
1-24Denver (232.0)SumH80-69W100%0.0
1-28South Dakota St. (90.0)SumA86-64L0%0.0
1-31IPFW (215.0)SumH65-75L0%0.0
2-5North Dakota St. (92.0)SumA64-57L0%0.0
2-7Denver (232.0)SumA88-74L0%0.0
2-12South Dakota (213.0)SumH73-74L0%0.0
2-14Western Illinois (328.0)SumH77-58W100%0.0
2-19Oral Roberts (163.0)SumH78-81L0%0.0
2-26IPFW (215.0)SumA67-73W100%0.0
2-28IUPUI (260.0)SumA80-87W100%0.0
3-3North Dakota (310.0)BSkyA78-80W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nebraska Omaha's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nebraska Omaha's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nebraska Omaha.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Nebraska OmahaSum26.3426.3441.4141.41-4.53-4.53
South Dakota St.Sum4.684.6865.5265.521.451.45
North Dakota St.Sum4.634.6367.8667.861.651.65
South DakotaSum4.554.5548.2848.28-0.16-0.16
Oral RobertsSum4.544.5450.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum4.494.4931.0331.03-1.70-1.70
DenverSum4.484.4839.2939.29-0.96-0.96
IPFWSum4.474.4748.0048.00-0.18-0.18
Western IllinoisSum4.464.4620.8320.83-2.60-2.60
UMKCWAC2.122.1236.6736.67-0.57-0.57
SeattleWAC2.032.0346.4346.43-0.14-0.14
Texas Pan AmericanWAC2.032.0325.9325.93-0.98-0.98
North DakotaBSky2.032.0322.2222.22-1.13-1.13
Chicago St.WAC2.002.0014.2914.29-1.43-1.43
Northern ColoradoBSky1.851.8548.1548.15-0.07-0.07
Air ForceMWC1.851.8539.2939.29-0.40-0.40
NevadaMWC1.851.8525.0025.00-0.92-0.92
MarquetteBE1.821.8241.9441.94-0.29-0.29
NebraskaB101.821.8240.0040.00-0.36-0.36
Central ArkansasSlnd1.811.817.147.14-1.56-1.56
Kansas St.B121.811.8145.1645.16-0.18-0.18
New Mexico St.WAC0.370.3767.7467.740.130.13
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.360.3636.6736.67-0.10-0.10
Utah ValleyWAC0.300.3032.1432.14-0.11-0.11
MontanaBSky0.280.2860.0060.000.060.06
IdahoBSky0.250.2539.2939.29-0.05-0.05
Montana St.BSky0.240.2420.6920.69-0.14-0.14
Grand CanyonWAC0.240.2451.7251.720.010.01
CreightonBE0.240.2442.4242.42-0.04-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.210.2181.2581.250.130.13
UNLVMWC0.210.2153.1253.120.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.200.2042.8642.86-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.180.1871.8871.880.080.08
Idaho St.BSky0.180.1817.8617.86-0.12-0.12
Utah St.MWC0.180.1856.6756.670.020.02
PurdueB100.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.160.1662.0762.070.040.04
Southern UtahBSky0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Weber St.BSky0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.150.150.000.00-0.15-0.15
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.1572.4172.410.070.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.150.1590.9190.910.120.12
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1362.9662.960.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
AkronMAC0.130.1358.8258.820.020.02
MemphisAmer0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.130.1348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
UtahP120.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
New OrleansSlnd0.120.1230.7730.77-0.05-0.05
MinnesotaB100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
IowaB100.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
StanfordP120.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
OklahomaB120.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
TexasB120.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
Seton HallBE0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
XavierBE0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
PacificWCC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1038.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.090.0979.3179.310.050.05
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
DrakeMVC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Georgia St.SB0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0958.3358.330.010.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.090.0991.1891.180.070.07
Iowa St.B120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
TCUB120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
VillanovaBE0.080.0894.1294.120.070.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0724.1424.14-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0783.3383.330.040.04
UTSACUSA0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0642.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
BryantNEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Arizona St.P120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
MarylandB100.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0675.8675.860.030.03
Penn St.B100.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
RichmondA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Michigan St.B100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Ohio St.B100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
BaylorB120.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
ButlerBE0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
KansasB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
St. John'sBE0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
Texas St.SB0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
TroySB0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01