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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Nebraska Omaha

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:127.1
Current RPI:139
Expected SOS:159
Current SOS:186
Current Record:14-10
Expected Record:16-12
Current Conf Record:8-4
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:184
Expected OOC SOS:267



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-10102.011.42%
17-11116.934.31%
16-12133.036.15%
15-13148.815.84%
14-14163.32.27%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nebraska Omaha.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UC Santa Barbara (122.3)BWH59-60L0%0.0
11-17UMKC (274.0)WACH95-89W100%0.0
11-22Colorado (44.8)P12A87-82L0%0.0
11-25Northern Colorado (308.9)BSkyA85-105W100%0.0
11-27Minnesota (247.2)B10A93-90L0%0.0
12-1Eastern Michigan (144.1)MACH73-80L0%0.0
12-6Montana St. (255.2)BSkyA97-100W100%0.0
12-9Missouri (222.4)SECA85-78L0%0.0
12-13Grand Canyon (101.1)WACA104-108W100%0.0
12-19Wyoming (179.2)MWCA76-75L0%0.0
12-21Eastern Illinois (268.0)OVCN80-68W100%0.0
12-22Southern (178.9)SWACN53-74W100%0.0
1-1Western Illinois (259.8)SumH82-80W100%0.0
1-3IUPUI (178.2)SumH76-71W100%0.0
1-7North Dakota St. (114.3)SumA82-91W100%0.0
1-9South Dakota (192.1)SumA73-79W100%0.0
1-16IPFW (81.4)SumH101-106L0%0.0
1-21Denver (200.7)SumA55-69W100%0.0
1-23Oral Roberts (150.0)SumA79-85W100%0.0
1-28South Dakota St. (46.0)SumA87-76L0%0.0
1-30South Dakota (192.1)SumH96-83W100%0.0
2-3Western Illinois (259.8)SumA83-76L0%0.0
2-6Denver (200.7)SumH72-75L0%0.0
2-10South Dakota St. (46.0)SumH96-92W100%0.0
2-13North Dakota St. (114.3)SumH0-062%3.3
2-17IUPUI (178.2)SumA0-060%2.7
2-20IPFW (81.4)SumA0-042%-2.3
2-25Oral Roberts (150.0)SumH0-074%6.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nebraska Omaha's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nebraska Omaha's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nebraska Omaha.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Nebraska OmahaSum26.5026.4061.6761.446.186.04
South Dakota St.Sum4.904.5676.1976.602.572.43
South DakotaSum4.824.5345.4544.30-0.44-0.52
DenverSum4.864.5354.5551.910.440.17
Western IllinoisSum4.744.5125.0027.26-2.37-2.05
North Dakota St.Sum2.734.4966.6765.460.911.39
IUPUISum2.894.4741.6741.17-0.48-0.79
IPFWSum2.784.4769.5767.811.091.59
Oral RobertsSum2.774.4640.9143.27-0.50-0.60
UMKCWAC2.352.0030.0034.04-0.94-0.64
Montana St.BSky2.271.9742.8645.32-0.32-0.19
MinnesotaB102.311.9521.7424.72-1.31-0.98
WyomingMWC2.311.9440.9140.41-0.42-0.37
Northern ColoradoBSky2.261.9430.0028.00-0.91-0.85
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.311.9340.9142.61-0.42-0.29
Grand CanyonWAC2.181.8986.3684.131.591.29
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.171.8540.0048.57-0.43-0.05
SouthernSWAC2.171.8565.0067.720.650.66
ColoradoP122.131.8268.1864.120.780.51
Eastern MichiganMAC2.081.7936.8441.24-0.55-0.31
MissouriSEC2.081.7930.4327.95-0.82-0.79
Weber St.BSky0.370.2865.0069.230.110.11
Chicago St.WAC0.250.244.357.72-0.23-0.20
New Mexico St.WAC0.230.2365.2268.590.070.08
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.280.2266.6767.710.090.08
Utah ValleyWAC0.230.2233.3334.95-0.08-0.07
Austin PeayOVC0.230.2240.0042.85-0.05-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.230.2245.0046.11-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.270.2252.3854.070.010.02
Missouri St.MVC0.180.2237.5037.41-0.04-0.05
IllinoisB100.220.2145.8344.11-0.02-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.190.2014.2915.45-0.13-0.14
MontanaBSky0.140.1957.8962.320.020.05
North DakotaBSky0.140.1947.3749.90-0.01-0.00
SeattleWAC0.190.1647.6245.00-0.01-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1647.8350.01-0.010.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.1617.3920.66-0.09-0.09
Ball St.MAC0.140.1660.8757.160.030.02
UC RiversideBW0.140.1645.8341.65-0.01-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.180.1660.0057.640.040.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.180.1642.1145.67-0.03-0.01
IndianaB100.180.1579.1774.060.100.07
Miami OHMAC0.140.1534.7833.05-0.04-0.05
Southern UtahBSky0.140.1515.0015.32-0.10-0.11
Air ForceMWC0.220.1543.4837.81-0.03-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.220.1559.0959.650.040.03
IowaB100.170.1482.6180.520.110.08
CreightonBE0.160.1364.0062.040.040.03
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1331.8232.69-0.03-0.04
UC DavisBW0.050.1340.0036.70-0.01-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.190.1343.4843.76-0.03-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.090.1330.0034.55-0.04-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1331.8230.15-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.180.1347.6252.03-0.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.140.1331.5837.72-0.05-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.130.1250.0049.600.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1254.5552.540.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.140.1223.8122.82-0.07-0.07
UNLVMWC0.130.1252.1755.090.010.01
CaliforniaP120.190.1265.2262.830.060.03
South CarolinaSEC0.090.1286.9680.370.070.07
South AlabamaSB0.130.1233.3334.19-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.090.1270.8368.500.040.04
WisconsinB100.120.1062.5056.960.030.01
LouisvilleACC0.150.1079.1776.070.090.05
Central MichiganMAC0.150.1047.6249.35-0.01-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.150.1056.5257.000.020.01
DetroitHorz0.100.1047.6245.85-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.140.1070.8367.980.060.03
MarshallCUSA0.140.1050.0051.190.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.1040.0040.34-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.1020.0022.26-0.06-0.05
HawaiiBW0.150.0984.2181.660.100.06
IdahoBSky0.100.0954.5554.970.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.090.0958.3360.690.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.090.0947.6249.26-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.090.0970.8368.000.040.03
Texas TechB120.130.0960.8755.300.030.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.0910.0013.14-0.08-0.07
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0969.5770.070.040.04
Penn St.B100.140.0950.0046.760.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0924.0025.67-0.05-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0942.8639.23-0.01-0.02
LSUSEC0.050.0962.5059.050.010.02
NevadaMWC0.140.0957.1455.290.020.01
MemphisAmer0.090.0958.3359.360.020.02
Oregon St.P120.140.0961.9056.450.030.01
WashingtonP120.090.0962.5060.110.020.02
Kansas St.B120.130.0958.3356.290.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.090.0950.0053.000.000.01
PurdueB100.090.0980.0077.960.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0950.0049.050.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.130.0964.0062.090.040.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.075.007.22-0.10-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.120.0745.8343.68-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0765.2260.580.020.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0745.4549.69-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0713.6415.80-0.03-0.05
ToledoMAC0.000.0760.8762.080.000.02
AkronMAC0.100.0682.6181.130.070.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0624.0024.17-0.05-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0625.0033.20-0.05-0.02
VermontAE0.100.0652.0054.870.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0645.8342.32-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0636.8442.89-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0628.5733.35-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0633.3330.60-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0621.7422.74-0.05-0.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0640.9145.29-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.0615.0018.11-0.07-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0650.0049.770.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0654.1750.990.010.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0650.0054.190.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0670.8369.490.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0645.4551.39-0.010.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0671.4369.430.040.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0629.1733.11-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0686.9682.580.030.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.069.0917.14-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0631.5832.01-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.090.0645.8339.35-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0645.4554.16-0.000.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0666.6764.730.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.100.0672.7371.660.050.03
Michigan St.B100.100.0680.0081.580.060.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0654.1751.670.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.090.0659.0961.310.020.01
USCP120.050.0678.2673.050.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.050.0660.8760.530.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0663.6461.640.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0650.0049.850.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.090.0625.0029.28-0.04-0.03
NavyPat0.040.0664.0064.480.010.02
San DiegoWCC0.090.0631.8229.13-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0630.4331.21-0.03-0.02
StetsonASun0.040.0623.8127.73-0.02-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.040.0627.2731.06-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.040.0681.8283.030.030.04
Wright St.Horz0.090.0656.5257.020.010.01
ButlerBE0.040.0670.8368.990.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.040.0657.8956.090.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0621.7423.40-0.02-0.03
MarquetteBE0.040.0664.0057.920.010.01
MichiganB100.090.0670.8366.720.040.02
OregonP120.090.0682.6179.250.060.03
RutgersB100.000.0621.7420.34-0.00-0.04
StanfordP120.090.0650.0046.530.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.050.0636.3631.98-0.01-0.02
ArizonaP120.040.0679.1778.330.030.03
AuburnSEC0.090.0639.1335.44-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0659.0955.220.020.01
MississippiSEC0.040.0662.5058.920.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0675.0075.330.020.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0320.8323.19-0.03-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0376.1973.410.030.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0322.7323.25-0.03-0.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0368.0066.660.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0350.0045.820.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.65-0.04-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0352.0050.230.000.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0354.5556.010.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0350.0052.380.000.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0365.2267.120.020.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0333.3335.05-0.02-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0368.0067.990.020.01
OhioMAC0.000.0363.6461.480.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0368.1865.160.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0365.2264.370.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.14-0.02-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.25-0.04-0.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0360.8760.750.010.01
KansasB120.050.0382.6179.190.030.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0371.4368.750.020.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0354.5550.110.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0314.2924.86-0.04-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0336.0034.92-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0324.0026.33-0.03-0.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0366.6762.560.020.01
BYUWCC0.050.0366.6769.490.020.01
ClemsonACC0.040.0358.3358.370.010.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0342.8646.35-0.01-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0387.5083.690.000.02
NebraskaB100.040.0352.0050.780.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0318.1821.12-0.03-0.02
Ohio St.B100.040.0360.0055.540.010.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0340.0038.51-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0386.9682.900.030.02
TempleAmer0.040.0363.6459.710.010.01
UCLAP120.000.0356.5253.270.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.040.0360.8755.970.010.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6766.330.000.01
KentuckySEC0.040.0375.0072.630.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0329.1733.74-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0338.1037.70-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0358.3359.960.010.01
WoffordSC0.040.0343.4846.22-0.01-0.00
XavierBE0.040.0387.5081.860.030.02