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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Nebraska Omaha

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:226.5
Current RPI:213
Expected SOS:267
Current SOS:286
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:13-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:212
Expected OOC SOS:320



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-675.00.02%
20-895.70.19%
19-9108.50.69%
18-10130.91.87%
17-11149.04.27%
16-12169.07.92%
15-13189.411.77%
14-14208.715.49%
13-15228.516.83%
12-16248.115.47%
11-17267.611.96%
10-18285.87.52%
9-19301.33.81%
8-20313.81.53%
7-21326.00.47%
6-22332.20.16%
5-23339.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nebraska Omaha.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Central Arkansas (336.0)SlndH100-75W100%0.0
11-19Seattle (243.0)WACA98-74L0%0.0
11-22Marquette (171.2)BEA89-97W100%0.0
11-25Nebraska (84.0)B10A0-011%-14.7
11-29Nevada (164.3)MWCH0-045%-1.5
12-2Kansas St. (89.4)B12A0-011%-14.7
12-8Air Force (195.5)MWCA0-030%-6.3
12-13UMKC (176.2)WACA0-031%-5.9
12-17Northern Colorado (218.8)BSkyH0-060%3.1
12-21Texas Pan American (263.6)WACH0-078%9.4
12-29Chicago St. (289.6)WACA0-058%2.4
1-2South Dakota (228.8)SumA0-036%-4.2
1-4Western Illinois (286.8)SumA0-050%-0.1
1-8North Dakota St. (210.6)SumH0-063%4.0
1-10South Dakota St. (172.6)SumH0-053%1.0
1-14Oral Roberts (161.1)SumA0-028%-7.1
1-18IUPUI (261.8)SumH0-074%7.9
1-24Denver (124.2)SumH0-043%-2.2
1-28South Dakota St. (172.6)SumA0-030%-6.2
1-31IPFW (150.5)SumH0-044%-1.8
2-5North Dakota St. (210.6)SumA0-039%-3.2
2-7Denver (124.2)SumA0-022%-9.4
2-12South Dakota (228.8)SumH0-060%2.9
2-14Western Illinois (286.8)SumH0-072%7.1
2-19Oral Roberts (161.1)SumH0-050%0.1
2-26IPFW (150.5)SumA0-023%-9.0
2-28IUPUI (261.8)SumA0-052%0.7
3-3North Dakota (233.3)BSkyA0-042%-2.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nebraska Omaha's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nebraska Omaha's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nebraska Omaha.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Nebraska OmahaSum32.6426.4376.9249.4217.57-0.31
South Dakota St.Sum0.004.5533.3348.64-0.00-0.12
North Dakota St.Sum0.004.5150.0044.480.00-0.50
IUPUISum0.004.5050.0031.470.00-1.67
DenverSum0.004.4950.0060.970.000.99
South DakotaSum0.004.490.0041.86-0.00-0.73
Oral RobertsSum0.004.4833.3348.49-0.00-0.13
IPFWSum0.004.4850.0063.490.001.21
Western IllinoisSum0.004.4733.3332.24-0.00-1.59
UMKCWAC0.002.0833.3354.90-0.000.20
North DakotaBSky0.002.050.0043.48-0.00-0.27
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.002.01100.0031.140.00-0.76
Chicago St.WAC0.001.980.0024.81-0.00-1.00
SeattleWAC16.671.980.0047.01-16.67-0.12
Air ForceMWC0.001.8550.0044.960.00-0.19
NevadaMWC0.001.8533.3346.43-0.00-0.13
Northern ColoradoBSky0.001.850.0053.60-0.000.13
Central ArkansasSlnd16.671.820.0020.63-16.67-1.07
Kansas St.B120.001.8266.6753.000.000.11
MarquetteBE16.671.8250.0042.420.00-0.28
NebraskaB102.081.8266.6750.960.690.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.390.0031.63-0.00-0.14
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.3625.0066.02-0.000.12
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.3266.6749.370.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.290.0048.00-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.2650.0047.120.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.2650.0049.760.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.260.0023.51-0.00-0.14
CreightonBE2.080.25100.0055.852.080.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.23100.0062.400.000.06
Utah St.MWC0.000.2075.0057.480.000.03
UNLVMWC0.000.1975.0053.210.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.19100.0070.850.000.08
PurdueB100.000.19100.0060.550.000.04
Idaho St.BSky0.000.190.0028.34-0.00-0.08
San Jose St.MWC0.000.170.0017.53-0.00-0.11
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1650.0046.250.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.160.0019.17-0.00-0.10
Northern IowaMVC0.000.16100.0072.420.000.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1666.6767.990.000.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.150.0050.76-0.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.150.0033.14-0.00-0.05
AkronMAC0.000.1466.6763.730.000.04
MemphisAmer0.000.140.0066.25-0.000.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.140.0063.44-0.000.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.130.0034.07-0.00-0.04
IowaB100.000.1350.0065.570.000.04
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1350.0051.860.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.13100.0080.630.000.08
Weber St.BSky0.000.130.0048.20-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.13100.0081.740.000.08
MinnesotaB100.000.1366.6761.350.000.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.1375.0059.530.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1333.3354.70-0.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.13100.0050.420.000.00
UtahP120.000.1366.6769.700.000.05
OklahomaB120.000.1350.0058.120.000.02
XavierBE0.000.12100.0077.070.000.07
New OrleansSlnd0.000.120.0033.75-0.00-0.04
StanfordP120.000.1275.0071.090.000.05
PacificWCC0.000.1050.0029.910.00-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.000.1050.0037.760.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.10100.0070.980.000.04
StetsonASun0.000.100.0032.07-0.00-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.10100.0053.080.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.1066.6734.100.00-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.100.0033.98-0.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.10100.0042.650.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1066.6768.230.000.04
Boise St.MWC0.000.1075.0063.040.000.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.100.0033.08-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.1066.6749.590.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.10100.0065.140.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.10100.0056.980.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1050.0044.170.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.10100.0037.850.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.10100.0084.890.000.07
Texas TechB120.000.0966.6746.900.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.09100.0052.260.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.09100.0061.830.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0925.0035.61-0.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.090.0025.08-0.00-0.05
Georgia St.SB0.000.090.0057.63-0.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0966.6752.030.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0733.3346.93-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0725.0035.65-0.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0766.6744.970.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0035.64-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0725.0051.56-0.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0750.0052.920.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0025.03-0.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0720.0026.89-0.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0750.0053.430.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0766.6754.020.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0733.3335.92-0.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0766.6760.720.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0733.3354.50-0.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.070.0031.61-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.070.0047.90-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.07100.0049.460.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0766.6753.050.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0750.0037.430.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.060.0034.03-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0633.3353.79-0.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0056.330.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0666.6760.610.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0061.850.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0072.860.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0062.070.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0067.100.000.02
MarylandB100.000.06100.0064.500.000.02
Ohio St.B102.780.06100.0071.342.780.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0069.670.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.540.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC2.780.0650.0033.700.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0065.270.000.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0650.0053.000.000.00
BaylorB120.000.06100.0069.300.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0666.6773.760.000.03
BryantNEC0.000.0650.0054.900.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0033.68-0.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0625.0031.12-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0650.0061.790.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0044.91-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0034.81-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0053.00-0.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0052.590.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0037.110.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0071.830.000.03
TCUB120.000.06100.0054.550.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0067.570.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.0675.0075.140.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.060.0036.36-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0064.090.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0063.550.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0035.51-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0072.02-0.000.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.06100.0050.830.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0666.6767.450.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.36-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB2.780.0366.6748.850.93-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0055.87-0.000.00
WashingtonP122.780.03100.0057.542.780.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0325.0033.97-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.03100.0066.100.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0069.830.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0350.0051.120.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0052.610.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.27-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0025.50-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0065.060.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6751.200.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0028.08-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0041.59-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0061.500.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0366.6756.650.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0063.820.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0333.3346.79-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0067.49-0.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0375.0054.790.000.00
IndianaB100.000.03100.0062.040.000.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0064.370.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6771.600.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0040.40-0.00-0.01
NJITind0.000.0325.0025.21-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3340.99-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0042.120.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0074.620.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0032.48-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0375.0047.170.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0056.240.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0350.0037.560.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0325.0049.94-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0037.760.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0333.3364.19-0.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.03100.0051.050.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0049.23-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0333.3341.77-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0028.76-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0042.47-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.030.0027.82-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0350.0054.970.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.030.0063.56-0.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6758.190.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0025.73-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0325.0059.16-0.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0350.0041.720.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.080.0333.3341.92-0.69-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0067.09-0.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0042.680.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6765.320.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0037.22-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.030.0045.18-0.00-0.00