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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Nebraska Omaha

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:170.8
Current RPI:122
Expected SOS:224
Current SOS:118
Current Record:3-5
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:127
Expected OOC SOS:117



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-658.00.02%
21-770.60.08%
20-880.00.32%
19-990.51.44%
18-10104.43.80%
17-11120.98.32%
16-12136.813.46%
15-13155.818.86%
14-14175.318.60%
13-15194.716.06%
12-16214.810.16%
11-17234.45.57%
10-18252.42.26%
9-19269.10.80%
8-20282.20.19%
7-21294.00.03%
6-22312.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nebraska Omaha.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12UC Santa Barbara (269.9)BWA60-74W100%0.0
11-13USC (38.7)P12A82-72L0%0.0
11-15Kansas St. (87.0)B12A81-68L0%0.0
11-19Rice (96.6)CUSAH87-100L0%0.0
11-26Eastern Michigan (104.9)MACA94-77L0%0.0
11-30Cal St. Fullerton (325.8)BWA73-83W100%0.0
12-3Iowa (190.1)B10A89-98W100%0.0
12-5Iowa St. (25.8)B12A91-47L0%0.0
12-10Montana St. (212.6)BSkyH0-065%4.7
12-15UMKC (175.7)WACA0-050%0.1
12-18Cal St. Fullerton (325.8)BWH0-083%11.6
12-21Pittsburgh (74.1)ACCA0-018%-11.2
12-29South Dakota (222.0)SumA0-050%-0.1
12-31North Dakota St. (146.4)SumA0-035%-4.5
1-4Fort Wayne (114.9)SumH0-044%-1.7
1-7South Dakota St. (236.7)SumA0-047%-0.8
1-11IUPUI (160.7)SumA0-035%-4.6
1-14Western Illinois (338.0)SumH0-088%14.1
1-18Denver (244.4)SumH0-070%6.5
1-21Oral Roberts (290.1)SumA0-061%3.5
1-28South Dakota St. (236.7)SumH0-067%5.4
2-1South Dakota (222.0)SumH0-070%6.2
2-4Western Illinois (338.0)SumA0-074%7.8
2-8IUPUI (160.7)SumH0-056%1.7
2-11Fort Wayne (114.9)SumA0-025%-8.0
2-16Oral Roberts (290.1)SumH0-079%9.7
2-22Denver (244.4)SumA0-051%0.2
2-25North Dakota St. (146.4)SumH0-056%1.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nebraska Omaha's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nebraska Omaha's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nebraska Omaha.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Nebraska OmahaSum28.4626.4752.5055.581.422.95
South DakotaSum0.004.5750.0047.300.00-0.25
South Dakota St.Sum0.004.5125.0039.99-0.00-0.90
IUPUISum0.524.5133.3351.33-0.170.12
Western IllinoisSum0.354.490.0016.10-0.35-3.04
DenverSum0.004.4842.8646.11-0.00-0.35
Oral RobertsSum0.004.480.0022.21-0.00-2.49
Fort WayneSum0.004.4762.5071.340.001.91
North Dakota St.Sum0.004.4757.1459.380.000.84
Cal St. FullertonBW6.253.6433.3335.58-2.08-1.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW6.641.950.0035.01-6.64-0.58
Montana St.BSky0.391.9442.8657.26-0.060.28
Kansas St.B126.251.9287.5055.274.690.20
UMKCWAC0.001.9155.5649.660.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC6.251.8840.0054.39-1.250.16
Iowa St.B126.251.8771.4370.342.680.76
PittsburghACC0.521.8575.0047.870.26-0.08
RiceCUSA6.251.8571.4369.522.680.72
USCP126.881.82100.0075.586.880.93
IowaB106.251.8250.0039.690.00-0.37
UC IrvineBW0.000.3244.4453.29-0.000.02
UC DavisBW0.000.2650.0045.660.00-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.260.0031.31-0.00-0.10
Miami OHMAC0.000.2337.5028.47-0.00-0.10
Long Beach St.BW0.000.230.0038.43-0.00-0.05
MontanaBSky0.390.2225.0048.70-0.20-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.2042.8641.13-0.00-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.2025.0043.29-0.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.2042.8650.82-0.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.1933.3355.64-0.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.180.0020.21-0.00-0.11
IdahoBSky0.000.1850.0053.130.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.180.0022.30-0.00-0.10
BaylorB120.000.18100.0076.070.000.09
OklahomaB120.000.1871.4348.030.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1637.5037.96-0.00-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.160.0025.31-0.00-0.08
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1660.0058.900.000.03
KansasB120.000.1588.8977.470.000.08
West VirginiaB120.000.1585.7183.250.000.10
Texas TechB120.390.1587.5061.660.290.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1457.1449.640.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.1420.0022.08-0.00-0.08
ArkansasSEC0.000.1387.5069.040.000.05
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1333.3336.67-0.00-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.1350.0050.170.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.620.1350.0064.910.000.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1360.0067.820.000.05
PurdueB100.000.1377.7877.640.000.07
San DiegoWCC0.390.1337.5031.15-0.10-0.05
PortlandWCC0.000.1357.1450.730.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.450.1340.0043.88-0.09-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1325.0040.78-0.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.450.1357.1452.140.060.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1357.1457.780.000.02
SMUAmer1.540.1266.6766.650.510.04
Notre DameACC0.350.12100.0076.970.350.07
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1271.4355.680.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.1216.6749.78-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.1266.6753.730.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.1266.6751.140.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.1257.1444.830.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.1242.8629.20-0.00-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1271.4354.010.000.01
TCUB120.000.12100.0060.950.000.03
TexasB120.000.1250.0038.730.00-0.03
MarylandB100.350.1287.5059.030.260.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1042.8638.35-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.520.100.0021.30-0.52-0.06
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1075.0058.720.000.02
SeattleWAC0.000.1016.6738.83-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.100.0025.17-0.00-0.05
CreightonBE0.000.10100.0076.540.000.05
IndianaB100.000.0987.5074.510.000.05
StetsonASun0.350.0925.0026.46-0.17-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.000.0957.1454.200.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0950.0060.950.000.02
UCLAP120.000.09100.0086.650.000.07
MarquetteBE0.000.0977.7864.250.000.03
MichiganB100.000.0977.7865.840.000.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0960.0058.780.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0975.0066.090.000.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.350.0920.0022.88-0.21-0.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0916.6740.32-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0987.5064.760.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.390.09100.0092.200.390.08
Texas A&MSEC0.390.0971.4365.470.170.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.520.0933.3351.98-0.170.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0962.5062.080.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.390.0912.5037.11-0.29-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0933.3352.49-0.000.00
VirginiaACC0.350.0988.8978.430.270.05
AmericanPat0.000.0712.5028.64-0.00-0.03
AkronMAC0.000.0771.4368.930.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.450.0712.5033.31-0.33-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0775.0066.120.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.0737.5044.87-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.450.0750.0045.920.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0733.3338.56-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0020.63-0.00-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0742.8645.50-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0783.3371.500.000.03
PacificWCC0.450.0742.8645.98-0.06-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0737.5047.57-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0720.0035.15-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0771.4355.570.000.01
UNLVMWC0.450.0762.5042.780.11-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0716.6735.90-0.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.0787.5070.880.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0050.980.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0642.8658.24-0.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0616.6743.53-0.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.400.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4358.830.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0047.990.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0675.0069.680.000.03
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.000.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0650.0048.500.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0650.0042.770.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0037.700.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0633.3352.03-0.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1448.110.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.90-0.00-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0662.5050.630.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3379.920.000.04
HofstraCAA0.000.0655.5643.870.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0675.0075.180.000.03
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0612.5029.77-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0662.5060.090.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.390.0612.5030.17-0.29-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0657.1472.530.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0633.3331.35-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0662.5066.500.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0650.0040.690.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0671.4357.210.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0620.0017.37-0.00-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0677.7886.650.000.05
Green BayHorz0.350.0637.5048.85-0.09-0.00
UtahP120.000.0680.0058.220.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0662.5053.550.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.0677.7870.290.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0655.5637.870.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0675.0072.800.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0625.0023.62-0.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.390.0677.7866.740.220.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.740.060.0019.08-0.74-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.350.0657.1429.760.05-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0687.5075.690.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0687.5081.910.000.04
Penn St.B100.000.0666.6746.170.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0687.5050.250.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.540.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0377.7871.770.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.620.0385.7153.770.450.00
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.400.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0047.520.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0055.480.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0344.4441.55-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2935.05-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0328.5738.92-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.390.030.0038.78-0.39-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.390.0325.0042.78-0.20-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0371.4363.080.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0387.5075.730.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0311.1120.27-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0320.0042.14-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.44-0.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.390.0350.0066.380.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.840.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.46-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.90-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0337.5035.03-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.390.0362.5067.080.100.01
CincinnatiAmer0.390.0387.5082.440.290.02
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0062.450.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.43-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.390.0342.8650.98-0.060.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.390.0311.1149.12-0.30-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.390.0340.0041.72-0.08-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.51-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0366.6758.600.000.01
The CitadelSC0.390.0350.0030.320.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0342.8636.07-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0355.5646.770.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0371.4354.560.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0371.4360.090.000.01
DukeACC0.000.0390.0080.060.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0340.0039.19-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0388.8967.470.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.370.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.350.0314.2942.77-0.25-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.350.0325.0030.02-0.17-0.01
MemphisAmer0.350.0375.0056.270.170.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0388.8966.920.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.87-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0050.980.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0377.7862.010.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.350.0312.5033.18-0.26-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.350.0330.0045.49-0.14-0.00
Saint LouisA100.350.0325.0023.99-0.17-0.01
Seton HallBE0.350.0375.0054.480.170.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0044.700.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.500.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0377.7855.180.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.550.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0342.8663.63-0.000.01