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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Nebraska Omaha

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:219.0
Current RPI:219
Expected SOS:261
Current SOS:261
Current Record:13-14
Expected Record:13-14
Current Conf Record:5-9
Expected Conf Record:5-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:122
Expected OOC SOS:285



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-14219.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nebraska Omaha.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Northern Illinois (217.0)MACA66-68W100%0.0
11-10Iowa (56.0)B10A83-75L0%0.0
11-13UMKC (248.0)WACH101-71W100%0.0
11-15UNLV (108.0)MWCA73-70L0%0.0
11-19South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH91-59W100%0.0
11-23Drake (174.0)MVCA88-80L0%0.0
11-25South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACA67-83W100%0.0
12-10Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACH93-88W100%0.0
12-14Nevada (137.0)MWCA80-82W100%0.0
12-20Minnesota (50.0)B10A92-79L0%0.0
12-22Seattle (267.0)WACH76-69W100%0.0
12-28Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndA88-104W100%0.0
1-3Hawaii (160.0)BWA77-73L0%0.0
1-11Western Illinois (290.0)SumA79-72L0%0.0
1-16North Dakota St. (35.0)SumA91-69L0%0.0
1-18South Dakota St. (138.0)SumA71-80W100%0.0
1-23Denver (139.0)SumH60-74L0%0.0
1-25South Dakota (255.0)SumH77-73W100%0.0
1-30IPFW (115.0)SumA86-82L0%0.0
2-1IUPUI (322.0)SumA71-99W100%0.0
2-8Western Illinois (290.0)SumH71-60W100%0.0
2-13South Dakota St. (138.0)SumH60-77L0%0.0
2-15North Dakota St. (35.0)SumH59-75L0%0.0
2-20South Dakota (255.0)SumA87-86L0%0.0
2-22Denver (139.0)SumA72-60L0%0.0
2-27IUPUI (322.0)SumH88-66W100%0.0
3-1IPFW (115.0)SumH95-96L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nebraska Omaha's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nebraska Omaha's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nebraska Omaha.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Nebraska OmahaSum26.3826.3852.0752.071.091.09
IPFWSum4.694.6965.5265.521.461.46
South Dakota St.Sum4.674.6757.6957.690.720.72
DenverSum4.624.6246.4346.43-0.33-0.33
North Dakota St.Sum4.604.6076.9276.922.482.48
IUPUISum4.584.5811.1111.11-3.56-3.56
Western IllinoisSum4.544.5424.0024.00-2.36-2.36
South DakotaSum4.544.5432.0032.00-1.63-1.63
South Carolina St.MEAC3.703.7026.9226.92-1.71-1.71
UMKCWAC2.042.0435.7135.71-0.58-0.58
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC2.042.0440.0040.00-0.41-0.41
MinnesotaB101.981.9858.0658.060.320.32
DrakeMVC1.981.9844.8344.83-0.20-0.20
SeattleWAC1.981.9840.7440.74-0.37-0.37
IowaB101.941.9460.0060.000.390.39
NevadaMWC1.941.9448.3948.39-0.06-0.06
UNLVMWC1.911.9159.3859.380.360.36
Central ArkansasSlnd1.851.8525.0025.00-0.93-0.93
HawaiiBW1.851.8560.7160.710.400.40
Northern IllinoisMAC1.851.8546.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Utah ValleyWAC0.390.3962.0762.070.090.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.320.3273.5373.530.150.15
WyomingMWC0.310.3153.3353.330.020.02
IdahoWAC0.290.2945.4545.45-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.260.2667.8667.860.090.09
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.250.2525.8125.81-0.12-0.12
NebraskaB100.220.2261.2961.290.050.05
Chicago St.WAC0.220.2236.6736.67-0.06-0.06
NorthwesternB100.210.2142.4242.42-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.210.2159.3859.380.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.200.2036.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.200.2045.4545.45-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.200.2083.8783.870.130.13
Grand CanyonWAC0.190.1946.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.190.1970.9770.970.080.08
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.1932.1432.14-0.07-0.07
BradleyMVC0.190.1937.5037.50-0.05-0.05
MichiganB100.180.1875.7675.760.090.09
Ohio St.B100.180.1873.5373.530.090.09
Air ForceMWC0.180.1835.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
IllinoisB100.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.160.1653.5753.570.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.160.1616.6716.67-0.11-0.11
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.150.1578.7978.790.080.08
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
North DakotaBSky0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
BelmontOVC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
StanfordP120.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
MontanaBSky0.130.1353.5753.570.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
UC DavisBW0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
UC IrvineBW0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
MissouriSEC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.120.1217.2417.24-0.08-0.08
New MexicoMWC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1187.1087.100.080.08
Kansas St.B120.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1130.7730.77-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1046.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
PacificWCC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Notre DameACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Michigan St.B100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
PurdueB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0714.8114.81-0.05-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0793.1093.100.060.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Green BayHorz0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Texas St.SB0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
BryantNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
ClemsonACC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
TowsonCAA0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
MercerASun0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
IndianaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0456.6756.670.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.040.0410.7110.71-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0478.7978.790.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0425.9325.93-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.040.0444.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.040.0468.9768.970.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.030.033.573.57-0.03-0.03