Nebraska Omaha

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	285.0
Current RPI:	285
Expected SOS:	281
Current SOS:	281
Current Record:	10-19
Expected Record:	10-19
Current Conf Record:	6-10
Expected Conf Record:	6-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-6
Current OOC Record:	4-9
Expected OOC Record:	4-9
Expected OOC RPI:	290
Expected OOC SOS:	291

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-19	285.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nebraska Omaha.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Northern Illinois (333.0)	MAC	H	77-64	W	100%
11-14	Texas Tech (214.0)	B12	A	91-63	L	0%
11-16	Tulane (175.0)	CUSA	A	76-52	L	0%
11-18	Nebraska (104.0)	B10	A	75-62	L	0%
11-23	Bethune Cookman (277.0)	MEAC	N	81-93	L	0%
11-24	Chicago St. (320.0)	GWC	N	66-68	W	100%
11-29	North Dakota St. (72.0)	Sum	A	95-51	L	0%
12-1	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	A	78-63	L	0%
12-4	Wisconsin (32.0)	B10	A	86-40	L	0%
12-9	Iowa St. (41.0)	B12	A	93-65	L	0%
12-15	Denver (64.0)	WAC	A	82-47	L	0%
12-22	Texas Pan American (306.0)	GWC	A	80-72	L	0%
12-29	South Dakota (240.0)	Sum	H	72-95	L	0%
12-31	Missouri Kansas City (284.0)	Sum	H	77-65	W	100%
1-3	Oakland (152.0)	Sum	A	91-79	L	0%
1-5	IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)	Sum	A	96-78	L	0%
1-10	IUPUI (326.0)	Sum	H	90-79	W	100%
1-12	Western Illinois (122.0)	Sum	H	74-89	L	0%
1-19	Cal St. Bakersfield (235.0)	ind	A	84-79	L	0%
1-24	South Dakota (240.0)	Sum	A	90-95	W	100%
1-26	Missouri Kansas City (284.0)	Sum	A	59-67	W	100%
1-31	IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)	Sum	H	86-79	W	100%
2-2	Oakland (152.0)	Sum	H	81-96	L	0%
2-7	Western Illinois (122.0)	Sum	A	68-50	L	0%
2-9	IUPUI (326.0)	Sum	A	78-85	W	100%
2-19	Chicago St. (320.0)	GWC	H	79-75	W	100%
2-23	North Dakota (226.0)	BSky	H	83-75	W	100%
2-28	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	H	82-100	L	0%
3-2	North Dakota St. (72.0)	Sum	H	57-84	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nebraska Omaha's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Nebraska Omaha's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Nebraska Omaha.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	26.35	26.35	35.77	35.77	-7.50	-7.50
South Dakota St.	Sum	4.52	4.52	68.97	68.97	1.72	1.72
North Dakota St.	Sum	4.46	4.46	68.97	68.97	1.69	1.69
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	4.40	4.40	44.83	44.83	-0.46	-0.46
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	4.37	4.37	24.14	24.14	-2.26	-2.26
Western Illinois	Sum	4.36	4.36	69.23	69.23	1.68	1.68
IUPUI	Sum	4.31	4.31	14.29	14.29	-3.08	-3.08
Oakland	Sum	4.31	4.31	42.86	42.86	-0.62	-0.62
South Dakota	Sum	4.31	4.31	26.92	26.92	-1.99	-1.99
Chicago St.	GWC	3.57	3.57	26.92	26.92	-1.65	-1.65
Texas Pan American	GWC	2.02	2.02	40.74	40.74	-0.37	-0.37
North Dakota	BSky	1.89	1.89	48.28	48.28	-0.07	-0.07
Tulane	CUSA	1.87	1.87	54.84	54.84	0.18	0.18
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	1.87	1.87	36.00	36.00	-0.52	-0.52
Iowa St.	B12	1.84	1.84	65.62	65.62	0.57	0.57
Nebraska	B10	1.80	1.80	43.75	43.75	-0.23	-0.23
Texas Tech	B12	1.78	1.78	33.33	33.33	-0.59	-0.59
Wisconsin	B10	1.78	1.78	66.67	66.67	0.59	0.59
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.75	1.75	35.48	35.48	-0.51	-0.51
Denver	WAC	1.72	1.72	68.97	68.97	0.65	0.65
Northern Illinois	MAC	1.72	1.72	14.29	14.29	-1.23	-1.23
Utah Valley	GWC	0.42	0.42	35.71	35.71	-0.12	-0.12
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.36	0.36	39.29	39.29	-0.08	-0.08
Valparaiso	Horz	0.31	0.31	78.12	78.12	0.18	0.18
Ohio St.	B10	0.27	0.27	78.79	78.79	0.16	0.16
Kansas St.	B12	0.25	0.25	78.79	78.79	0.15	0.15
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.25	0.25	28.00	28.00	-0.11	-0.11
Ball St.	MAC	0.24	0.24	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.24	0.24	35.48	35.48	-0.07	-0.07
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.23	0.23	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.23	0.23	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.22	0.22	63.64	63.64	0.06	0.06
Minnesota	B10	0.21	0.21	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.20	0.20	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.19	0.19	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.18	0.18	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.18	0.18	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.17	0.17	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.17	0.17	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.16	0.16	85.29	85.29	0.11	0.11
Michigan St.	B10	0.16	0.16	75.00	75.00	0.08	0.08
Wyoming	MWC	0.16	0.16	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Houston	CUSA	0.15	0.15	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.14	0.14	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.14	0.14	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Navy	Pat	0.14	0.14	23.33	23.33	-0.07	-0.07
Michigan	B10	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Oklahoma	B12	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Indiana	B10	0.13	0.13	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.12	0.12	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Toledo	MAC	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Seattle	WAC	0.12	0.12	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Montana St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.12	0.12	73.53	73.53	0.06	0.06
Texas St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Western Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.12	0.12	67.86	67.86	0.04	0.04
Rice	CUSA	0.12	0.12	13.79	13.79	-0.08	-0.08
Southern Utah	BSky	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Montana	BSky	0.11	0.11	79.31	79.31	0.07	0.07
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Marshall	CUSA	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Baylor	B12	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Texas	B12	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.09	0.09	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.09	0.09	18.18	18.18	-0.06	-0.06
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.09	0.09	9.68	9.68	-0.07	-0.07
Yale	Ivy	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
California	P12	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Weber St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Akron	MAC	0.09	0.09	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Miami OH	MAC	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Pittsburgh	BE	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	93.75	93.75	0.05	0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Butler	A10	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Albany	AE	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01