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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


NC Wilmington

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:301.0
Current RPI:301
Expected SOS:260
Current SOS:260
Current Record:9-20
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:5-13
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-8
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:250
Expected OOC SOS:222



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-20301.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for NC Wilmington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11NC Asheville (217.0)BSthH67-59W100%0.0
11-13Richmond (92.0)A10A101-58L0%0.0
11-16Ohio (67.0)MACA85-47L0%0.0
11-21Purdue (136.0)B10A66-40L0%0.0
11-24Wofford (250.0)SCH49-37W100%0.0
11-25Hampton (287.0)MEACH61-60W100%0.0
12-1Marshall (208.0)CUSAA61-58L0%0.0
12-8Georgia Tech (149.0)ACCA73-66L0%0.0
12-15Davidson (61.0)SCA77-61L0%0.0
12-19NC Greensboro (327.0)SCH87-73W100%0.0
12-29Campbell (289.0)BSthA72-60L0%0.0
1-2Towson (157.0)CAAH74-79L0%0.0
1-5Northeastern (159.0)CAAA68-64L0%0.0
1-9James Madison (182.0)CAAA78-50L0%0.0
1-12George Mason (162.0)CAAH82-74W100%0.0
1-16Old Dominion (318.0)CAAH65-60W100%0.0
1-23Georgia St. (209.0)CAAA81-63L0%0.0
1-26Hofstra (325.0)CAAA51-57W100%0.0
1-28James Madison (182.0)CAAH56-63L0%0.0
2-2Delaware (141.0)CAAA71-56L0%0.0
2-4Towson (157.0)CAAA81-68L0%0.0
2-6Georgia St. (209.0)CAAH76-72W100%0.0
2-9Hofstra (325.0)CAAH56-65L0%0.0
2-13William & Mary (271.0)CAAA92-86L0%0.0
2-16Northeastern (159.0)CAAH73-67W100%0.0
2-20Old Dominion (318.0)CAAA84-61L0%0.0
2-23Delaware (141.0)CAAH78-79L0%0.0
2-27William & Mary (271.0)CAAH72-73L0%0.0
3-2Drexel (206.0)CAAA62-46L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

NC Wilmington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


NC Wilmington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  NC Wilmington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NC WilmingtonCAA26.2526.2527.9327.93-11.59-11.59
James MadisonCAA4.494.4956.2556.250.560.56
William & MaryCAA4.384.3837.0437.04-1.14-1.14
NortheasternCAA4.344.3463.3363.331.161.16
HofstraCAA4.334.3317.2417.24-2.84-2.84
DelawareCAA4.334.3354.8454.840.420.42
Georgia St.CAA4.254.2546.4346.43-0.30-0.30
Old DominionCAA4.254.2514.2914.29-3.03-3.03
TowsonCAA4.224.2253.5753.570.300.30
George MasonCAA2.722.7258.0658.060.440.44
DrexelCAA2.662.6640.0040.00-0.53-0.53
RichmondA102.032.0354.8454.840.200.20
WoffordSC1.921.9240.0040.00-0.38-0.38
HamptonMEAC1.921.9246.6746.67-0.13-0.13
DavidsonSC1.861.8677.4277.421.021.02
NC GreensboroSC1.861.8625.0025.00-0.93-0.93
PurdueB101.841.8445.1645.16-0.18-0.18
OhioMAC1.831.8371.8871.880.800.80
NC AshevilleBSth1.811.8146.4346.43-0.13-0.13
MarshallCUSA1.811.8136.6736.67-0.48-0.48
CampbellBSth1.751.7534.4834.48-0.54-0.54
Georgia TechACC1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.280.2834.4834.48-0.09-0.09
College of CharlestonSC0.280.2872.7372.730.130.13
Georgia SouthernSC0.250.2538.7138.71-0.06-0.06
LibertyBSth0.230.2337.5037.50-0.06-0.06
WinthropBSth0.220.2239.2939.29-0.05-0.05
VirginiaACC0.220.2265.6265.620.070.07
Appalachian St.SC0.200.2044.8344.83-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.180.1853.5753.570.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.170.1736.6736.67-0.05-0.05
ElonSC0.170.1763.3363.330.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaCUSA0.170.1753.8553.850.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.170.1717.2417.24-0.11-0.11
The CitadelSC0.170.1721.4321.43-0.10-0.10
TulaneCUSA0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
DukeACC0.160.1684.3884.380.110.11
CharlotteA100.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.160.1626.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.140.1419.3519.35-0.09-0.09
PresbyterianBSth0.140.1417.2417.24-0.09-0.09
Virginia Military InstBSth0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
TempleA100.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
George WashingtonA100.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
PennsylvaniaIvy0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
HowardMEAC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
SamfordSC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Central FloridaCUSA0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
MonmouthNEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
VermontAE0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Virginia CommonwealthA100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
XavierA100.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
UABCUSA0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
AkronMAC0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
VillanovaBE0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
MassachusettsA100.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0942.3142.31-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.080.0823.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
RiceCUSA0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Southern MethodistCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
ClemsonACC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
IllinoisB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0859.2659.260.020.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
RiderMAAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
DuquesneA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
South Carolina UpstateASun0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
Holy CrossPat0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0610.0010.00-0.05-0.05
Louisiana TechWAC0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
Loyola MDMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Texas San AntonioWAC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
CincinnatiBE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.060.0693.7593.750.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Long IslandNEC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
St. Mary'sWCC0.060.0681.2581.250.030.03
WagnerNEC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
MarylandACC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.057.147.14-0.05-0.05
BucknellPat0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
IowaB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
NorthwesternB100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
LafayettePat0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
PittsburghBE0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
RutgersBE0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HoustonCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
St. Peter'sMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
ButlerA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
KansasB120.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
LamarSlnd0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Notre DameBE0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
South FloridaBE0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. LouisA100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
StetsonASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
OaklandSum0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00