NC Wilmington

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	214.0
Current RPI:	214
Expected SOS:	125
Current SOS:	125
Current Record:	10-21
Expected Record:	10-21
Current Conf Record:	6-14
Expected Conf Record:	6-14
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-4
Current OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC RPI:	155
Expected OOC SOS:	94

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-21	214.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for NC Wilmington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Maryland (105.0)	ACC	A	71-62	L	0%
11-19	Dayton (81.0)	A10	A	74-49	L	0%
11-22	Marshall (43.0)	CUSA	H	64-69	L	0%
11-26	Davidson (66.0)	SC	H	67-70	L	0%
11-30	Toledo (246.0)	MAC	A	75-73	L	0%
12-3	Illinois St. (100.0)	MVC	A	54-63	W	100%
12-6	Liberty (283.0)	BSth	A	68-77	W	100%
12-17	Virginia Commonwealth (38.0)	CAA	A	87-64	L	0%
12-19	Campbell (206.0)	BSth	H	67-65	W	100%
12-21	Wake Forest (183.0)	ACC	A	87-78	L	0%
12-30	Furman (235.0)	SC	H	72-61	W	100%
1-2	Delaware (153.0)	CAA	H	80-75	W	100%
1-4	Northeastern (172.0)	CAA	A	62-70	W	100%
1-7	Hofstra (263.0)	CAA	H	86-80	W	100%
1-12	Georgia St. (141.0)	CAA	A	75-61	L	0%
1-14	Drexel (64.0)	CAA	H	57-79	L	0%
1-18	James Madison (261.0)	CAA	H	61-69	L	0%
1-21	William & Mary (299.0)	CAA	A	66-68	W	100%
1-23	George Mason (82.0)	CAA	A	67-61	L	0%
1-25	Old Dominion (103.0)	CAA	H	48-53	L	0%
1-28	Towson (311.0)	CAA	A	66-61	L	0%
2-1	Georgia St. (141.0)	CAA	H	53-68	L	0%
2-4	William & Mary (299.0)	CAA	H	81-68	W	100%
2-8	Delaware (153.0)	CAA	A	71-53	L	0%
2-11	George Mason (82.0)	CAA	H	69-75	L	0%
2-14	Old Dominion (103.0)	CAA	A	81-64	L	0%
2-18	Manhattan (149.0)	MAAC	A	79-64	L	0%
2-22	Virginia Commonwealth (38.0)	CAA	H	59-63	L	0%
2-25	Hofstra (263.0)	CAA	A	93-64	L	0%
3-2	James Madison (261.0)	CAA	N	59-70	W	100%
3-3	Drexel (64.0)	CAA	N	59-47	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

NC Wilmington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

NC Wilmington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against NC Wilmington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
NC Wilmington	CAA	26.23	26.23	33.10	33.10	-8.87	-8.87
Drexel	CAA	4.08	4.08	80.65	80.65	2.50	2.50
Georgia St.	CAA	4.08	4.08	63.33	63.33	1.09	1.09
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	4.08	4.08	81.25	81.25	2.55	2.55
George Mason	CAA	4.07	4.07	70.97	70.97	1.71	1.71
Old Dominion	CAA	4.03	4.03	58.06	58.06	0.65	0.65
William & Mary	CAA	4.03	4.03	17.24	17.24	-2.64	-2.64
Hofstra	CAA	4.03	4.03	30.00	30.00	-1.61	-1.61
James Madison	CAA	4.00	4.00	36.67	36.67	-1.07	-1.07
Delaware	CAA	4.00	4.00	58.62	58.62	0.69	0.69
Northeastern	CAA	2.51	2.51	46.67	46.67	-0.17	-0.17
Towson	CAA	2.49	2.49	0.00	0.00	-2.49	-2.49
Liberty	BSth	1.82	1.82	39.29	39.29	-0.39	-0.39
Manhattan	MAAC	1.74	1.74	61.29	61.29	0.39	0.39
Davidson	SC	1.70	1.70	76.67	76.67	0.90	0.90
Furman	SC	1.69	1.69	46.43	46.43	-0.12	-0.12
Wake Forest	ACC	1.69	1.69	40.00	40.00	-0.34	-0.34
Campbell	BSth	1.67	1.67	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Maryland	ACC	1.66	1.66	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Dayton	A10	1.64	1.64	61.29	61.29	0.37	0.37
Illinois St.	MVC	1.61	1.61	62.50	62.50	0.40	0.40
Marshall	CUSA	1.61	1.61	59.38	59.38	0.30	0.30
Toledo	MAC	1.61	1.61	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
Richmond	A10	0.25	0.25	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.23	0.23	22.58	22.58	-0.12	-0.12
Radford	BSth	0.21	0.21	13.33	13.33	-0.15	-0.15
Iona	MAAC	0.20	0.20	78.12	78.12	0.11	0.11
Virginia	ACC	0.20	0.20	70.97	70.97	0.08	0.08
Georgia Southern	SC	0.18	0.18	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.18	0.18	32.14	32.14	-0.07	-0.07
Winthrop	BSth	0.18	0.18	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.18	0.18	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.18	0.18	36.36	36.36	-0.05	-0.05
La Salle	A10	0.18	0.18	63.64	63.64	0.05	0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.17	0.17	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.17	0.17	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.16	0.16	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.16	0.16	14.29	14.29	-0.11	-0.11
College of Charleston	SC	0.16	0.16	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.15	0.15	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.15	0.15	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Florida International	SB	0.15	0.15	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Rider	MAAC	0.15	0.15	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.14	0.14	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
High Point	BSth	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.13	0.13	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Duke	ACC	0.13	0.13	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Boston University	AE	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.13	0.13	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Temple	A10	0.13	0.13	77.42	77.42	0.07	0.07
NC Greensboro	SC	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.12	0.12	6.45	6.45	-0.11	-0.11
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.12	0.12	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.12	0.12	21.88	21.88	-0.07	-0.07
East Carolina	CUSA	0.12	0.12	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.11	0.11	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.11	0.11	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
Missouri	B12	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.10	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
Vermont	AE	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Creighton	MVC	0.10	0.10	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	83.87	83.87	0.07	0.07
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.10	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.10	0.10	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.08	0.08	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.07	0.07	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Albany	AE	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Brown	Ivy	0.07	0.07	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.05	25.93	25.93	-0.03	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	10.34	10.34	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	94.12	94.12	0.04	0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	65.38	65.38	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	96.43	96.43	0.02	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Sum	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.02	0.02	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00