NC Greensboro

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	256.5
Current RPI:	250
Expected SOS:	207
Current SOS:	205
Current Record:	8-15
Expected Record:	10-19
Current Conf Record:	7-5
Expected Conf Record:	9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.57%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-7
Current OOC Record:	1-10
Expected OOC Record:	1-10
Expected OOC RPI:	267
Expected OOC SOS:	34

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-15	181.0	0.03%
13-16	201.0	0.66%
12-17	216.8	4.45%
11-18	233.6	16.72%
10-19	251.5	31.37%
9-20	268.3	33.15%
8-21	282.8	13.61%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for NC Greensboro.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Tennessee (138.4)	SEC	A	92-63	L	0%	0.0
11-14	Georgetown (13.4)	BE	A	86-45	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Middle Tennessee (50.2)	SB	A	82-60	L	0%	0.0
11-20	Towson (304.6)	CAA	N	60-72	W	100%	0.0
11-28	North Carolina A&T (272.6)	MEAC	A	87-65	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Appalachian St. (257.9)	SC	A	78-64	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Western Carolina (259.5)	SC	A	73-69	L	0%	0.0
12-5	Elon (212.2)	SC	H	72-80	L	0%	0.0
12-11	Florida St. (22.6)	ACC	A	75-60	L	0%	0.0
12-16	East Carolina (158.8)	CUSA	H	62-71	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Duke (6.6)	ACC	A	90-63	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Virginia Commonwealth (77.5)	CAA	H	68-80	L	0%	0.0
12-30	Richmond (135.9)	A10	A	78-58	L	0%	0.0
1-2	Miami FL (52.4)	ACC	A	99-89	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Davidson (62.8)	SC	H	63-92	L	0%	0.0
1-12	College of Charleston (129.6)	SC	A	66-73	W	100%	0.0
1-14	The Citadel (332.3)	SC	A	66-67	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Chattanooga (284.4)	SC	H	81-72	W	100%	0.0
1-22	Samford (250.7)	SC	H	61-60	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Appalachian St. (257.9)	SC	H	77-73	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Western Carolina (259.5)	SC	H	89-86	W	100%	0.0
2-2	The Citadel (332.3)	SC	H	82-71	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Furman (238.9)	SC	A	93-85	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Samford (250.7)	SC	A	0-0		32%	-5.2
2-11	Chattanooga (284.4)	SC	A	0-0		24%	-7.7
2-15	College of Charleston (129.6)	SC	H	0-0		25%	-7.5
2-18	Georgia Southern (218.5)	SC	A	0-0		27%	-6.7
2-21	Wofford (177.8)	SC	H	0-0		33%	-4.7
2-25	Elon (212.2)	SC	A	0-0		28%	-6.5

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

NC Greensboro's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

NC Greensboro's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against NC Greensboro.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
NC Greensboro	SC	26.44	26.32	35.79	35.29	-7.51	-7.74
Appalachian St.	SC	4.96	4.32	31.58	36.13	-1.83	-1.20
Elon	SC	2.92	4.31	50.00	46.85	0.00	-0.27
Chattanooga	SC	2.76	4.29	28.57	34.82	-1.18	-1.30
Western Carolina	SC	4.75	4.26	33.33	36.33	-1.58	-1.17
Samford	SC	2.77	4.26	35.00	35.28	-0.83	-1.25
College of Charleston	SC	2.78	4.23	60.87	61.51	0.61	0.97
The Citadel	SC	4.75	4.22	10.53	12.39	-3.75	-3.17
Davidson	SC	2.86	2.65	76.19	76.53	1.50	1.41
Wofford	SC	0.84	2.59	56.52	56.86	0.11	0.36
Furman	SC	2.82	2.59	42.86	45.17	-0.40	-0.25
Georgia Southern	SC	0.75	2.59	42.86	41.91	-0.11	-0.42
Tennessee	SEC	2.42	1.93	42.86	42.65	-0.35	-0.28
Miami FL	ACC	2.32	1.87	65.00	62.20	0.70	0.46
Duke	ACC	2.37	1.87	81.82	79.26	1.51	1.09
Florida St.	ACC	2.22	1.84	71.43	70.59	0.95	0.76
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	2.26	1.81	79.17	77.35	1.32	0.99
East Carolina	CUSA	2.28	1.79	41.18	39.22	-0.40	-0.39
Richmond	A10	2.27	1.78	47.83	46.76	-0.10	-0.12
Towson	CAA	2.22	1.78	4.17	5.44	-2.03	-1.59
Georgetown	BE	2.17	1.72	80.00	76.62	1.30	0.92
Middle Tennessee	SB	2.17	1.72	82.61	84.22	1.42	1.18
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	2.17	1.72	28.57	32.44	-0.93	-0.61
Massachusetts	A10	0.40	0.30	73.91	68.65	0.19	0.11
North Carolina	ACC	0.26	0.27	86.96	83.30	0.19	0.18
Clemson	ACC	0.35	0.27	47.83	45.51	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.20	0.24	70.83	64.53	0.08	0.07
Memphis	CUSA	0.25	0.22	69.57	71.58	0.10	0.09
South Carolina	SEC	0.15	0.21	40.91	39.60	-0.03	-0.04
Maryland	ACC	0.20	0.21	60.87	53.44	0.04	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.14	0.20	47.83	43.63	-0.01	-0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.20	0.19	71.43	66.55	0.09	0.06
Kentucky	SEC	0.20	0.18	96.00	93.53	0.18	0.16
Georgia St.	CAA	0.18	0.18	66.67	69.71	0.06	0.07
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.20	0.18	55.00	60.35	0.02	0.04
Old Dominion	CAA	0.24	0.17	60.00	58.30	0.05	0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.13	0.17	76.00	72.48	0.07	0.08
Mercer	ASun	0.15	0.16	72.00	72.22	0.07	0.07
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.26	0.16	50.00	52.04	0.00	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.21	0.16	68.42	68.62	0.08	0.06
Jacksonville	ASun	0.15	0.15	20.83	23.61	-0.09	-0.08
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.10	0.15	54.55	58.39	0.01	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.21	0.15	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.24	0.15	40.91	43.65	-0.04	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.17	-0.03	-0.03
Western Kentucky	SB	0.14	0.15	34.78	34.46	-0.04	-0.05
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.19	0.15	39.13	36.12	-0.04	-0.04
NC Asheville	BSth	0.19	0.15	68.18	67.72	0.07	0.05
Virginia	ACC	0.19	0.14	81.82	76.80	0.12	0.08
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.14	56.52	55.22	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.21	0.13	57.69	58.27	0.03	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.15	0.13	40.91	39.81	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.14	0.12	52.38	52.88	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.19	0.12	22.73	24.64	-0.11	-0.06
Georgia	SEC	0.15	0.12	45.45	41.17	-0.01	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.12	69.57	65.88	0.06	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.19	0.12	78.26	78.42	0.11	0.07
Kent St.	MAC	0.09	0.12	71.43	69.05	0.04	0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.12	30.43	26.42	-0.02	-0.05
Belmont	ASun	0.18	0.12	70.83	73.74	0.08	0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.19	0.11	39.13	42.16	-0.04	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.18	0.11	12.50	13.42	-0.13	-0.08
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.11	0.10	34.78	38.74	-0.03	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.11	0.10	42.11	45.89	-0.02	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.10	0.10	55.00	54.81	0.01	0.01
Denver	SB	0.15	0.09	70.83	72.24	0.06	0.04
High Point	BSth	0.10	0.09	31.82	32.81	-0.04	-0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.16	0.09	60.87	59.85	0.03	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.10	0.09	47.37	52.90	-0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.09	54.55	48.54	0.01	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.10	0.09	54.17	47.95	0.01	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.09	43.48	40.24	-0.01	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.09	24.00	24.86	-0.05	-0.04
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.10	0.09	36.36	39.73	-0.03	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.15	0.09	62.50	60.78	0.04	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.15	0.09	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.14	0.09	68.18	67.98	0.05	0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.15	0.09	65.22	62.35	0.05	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.09	79.17	74.20	0.06	0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.14	0.09	32.00	35.39	-0.05	-0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.09	63.64	56.68	0.03	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.09	69.57	70.16	0.04	0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.09	0.09	62.50	61.43	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.09	79.17	76.62	0.06	0.05
Delaware	CAA	0.09	0.08	47.83	50.66	-0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.13	0.08	79.17	78.05	0.08	0.05
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.08	34.78	32.05	-0.03	-0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.13	0.08	32.00	35.39	-0.05	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.09	0.08	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.00	0.07	59.09	59.78	0.00	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.12	0.07	85.71	82.22	0.09	0.04
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.07	38.10	37.80	-0.01	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.11	0.07	47.62	44.58	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.00	0.06	61.90	58.61	0.00	0.01
Army	Pat	0.10	0.06	40.91	41.68	-0.02	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.06	14.29	17.12	-0.04	-0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.06	70.83	62.75	0.04	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.06	9.52	13.17	-0.04	-0.05
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	26.32	29.85	-0.02	-0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	85.71	78.11	0.04	0.04
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.06	76.19	75.98	0.03	0.03
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.06	57.14	60.72	0.01	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.10	0.06	45.00	44.18	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.00	0.06	34.78	34.75	-0.00	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.06	52.38	53.29	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.06	36.36	40.96	-0.03	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.06	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.10	0.06	21.74	25.63	-0.06	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.06	75.00	75.73	0.02	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.06	8.33	10.90	-0.04	-0.05
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.06	28.57	25.79	-0.02	-0.03
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.06	80.00	76.67	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.05	0.06	52.00	48.78	0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.06	54.55	57.71	0.00	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.00	0.06	14.29	16.80	-0.00	-0.04
West Virginia	BE	0.10	0.06	66.67	65.98	0.03	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.10	0.06	62.50	59.52	0.03	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.09	0.06	33.33	37.11	-0.03	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.09	0.06	70.83	66.50	0.04	0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.09	0.06	30.00	31.40	-0.04	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.09	0.06	28.57	30.17	-0.04	-0.02
American	Pat	0.10	0.06	65.22	63.79	0.03	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	42.11	49.86	-0.01	-0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.10	0.06	54.55	56.80	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.04	0.06	65.22	63.65	0.01	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.06	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.09	0.06	59.09	57.69	0.02	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.09	0.06	54.55	56.78	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.06	40.91	42.03	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	45.45	47.09	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.06	77.27	73.50	0.05	0.03
La Salle	A10	0.04	0.06	70.83	68.83	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.06	69.57	66.33	0.04	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.06	62.50	62.42	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.09	0.06	77.27	75.07	0.05	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.03	47.62	46.51	-0.00	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.03	43.48	43.27	-0.01	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.00	0.03	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.55	0.00	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	18.18	19.91	-0.03	-0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.03	9.09	12.82	-0.04	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.37	0.02	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.03	84.00	82.62	0.03	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.89	41.49	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	47.83	42.19	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.03	47.83	47.08	-0.00	-0.00
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.03	57.14	53.02	0.01	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.03	54.17	49.41	0.00	-0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.53	-0.02	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	19.39	-0.03	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	23.81	33.67	-0.03	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.03	33.33	38.39	-0.02	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	69.57	70.42	0.00	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	62.67	0.00	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.03	81.82	77.18	0.03	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.03	90.91	87.78	0.04	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.00	0.03	95.83	92.00	0.00	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.00	0.03	45.83	45.52	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.00	0.03	82.61	80.50	0.00	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.00	0.03	43.48	44.26	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.36	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.03	47.83	47.36	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.03	54.17	54.76	0.00	0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.00	0.03	34.78	35.19	-0.00	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.03	48.00	48.07	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.00	0.03	35.00	40.74	-0.00	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.03	4.35	9.74	-0.04	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.06	0.01	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.00	0.03	75.00	74.01	0.00	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.18	0.00	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.03	90.48	87.91	0.04	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.00	0.03	59.09	57.27	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.28	0.03	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.03	48.00	50.28	-0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.03	30.43	29.57	-0.02	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.03	0.02	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	66.67	60.84	0.02	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.00	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.00	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	59.09	56.38	0.01	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.03	40.91	34.45	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.03	34.78	37.18	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	61.84	0.02	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.03	79.17	80.14	0.03	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.03	27.27	27.33	-0.02	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.04	0.03	68.00	69.08	0.02	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.04	0.03	13.04	14.47	-0.03	-0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.00	0.03	33.33	37.75	-0.00	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.04	0.03	63.64	63.17	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.03	20.83	20.61	-0.03	-0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.03	44.00	45.88	-0.01	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	60.00	59.09	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.04	0.03	21.74	22.75	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	77.70	0.00	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.04	0.03	61.54	63.84	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.59	0.02	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.97	-0.01	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.69	0.00	0.01