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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


NC Greensboro

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:327.0
Current RPI:327
Expected SOS:304
Current SOS:304
Current Record:7-22
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-11
Current OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC RPI:337
Expected OOC SOS:205



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-22327.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for NC Greensboro.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9High Point (249.0)BSthA81-73L0%0.0
11-16East Carolina (100.0)CUSAA76-73L0%0.0
11-19Virginia Tech (177.0)ACCH87-96L0%0.0
11-25Rutgers (109.0)BEH80-87L0%0.0
11-28North Carolina A&T (213.0)MEACH79-90L0%0.0
12-1The Citadel (330.0)SCH84-54W100%0.0
12-16James Madison (182.0)CAAA85-73L0%0.0
12-19NC Wilmington (301.0)CAAA87-73L0%0.0
12-22Wake Forest (170.0)ACCH70-84L0%0.0
12-31North Carolina St. (33.0)ACCA89-68L0%0.0
1-5Davidson (61.0)SCA85-53L0%0.0
1-12Western Carolina (243.0)SCA62-59L0%0.0
1-14Appalachian St. (265.0)SCA83-70L0%0.0
1-16Wofford (250.0)SCH71-52W100%0.0
1-20Furman (343.0)SCH61-69L0%0.0
1-24Samford (291.0)SCH66-64W100%0.0
1-27Chattanooga (292.0)SCH77-69W100%0.0
1-31Elon (174.0)SCH66-72L0%0.0
2-2College of Charleston (133.0)SCA81-59L0%0.0
2-7Furman (343.0)SCA65-88W100%0.0
2-9Wofford (250.0)SCA59-50L0%0.0
2-14Western Carolina (243.0)SCH68-70L0%0.0
2-17Appalachian St. (265.0)SCH68-76L0%0.0
2-21Chattanooga (292.0)SCA68-94W100%0.0
2-23Samford (291.0)SCA75-71L0%0.0
2-27Georgia Southern (266.0)SCH60-66L0%0.0
3-2Elon (174.0)SCA80-66L0%0.0
3-8Chattanooga (292.0)SCN81-87W100%0.0
3-9Elon (174.0)SCN68-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

NC Greensboro's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


NC Greensboro's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  NC Greensboro.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NC GreensboroSC26.4526.4522.9622.96-14.30-14.30
ElonSC6.056.0559.2659.261.121.12
ChattanoogaSC6.006.0040.7440.74-1.11-1.11
Appalachian St.SC4.474.4740.7440.74-0.83-0.83
SamfordSC4.374.3731.0331.03-1.66-1.66
Western CarolinaSC4.364.3634.4834.48-1.35-1.35
FurmanSC4.364.3614.8114.81-3.06-3.06
WoffordSC4.284.2837.9337.93-1.03-1.03
College of CharlestonSC2.782.7871.8871.881.221.22
DavidsonSC2.732.7377.4277.421.491.49
Georgia SouthernSC2.722.7236.6736.67-0.72-0.72
The CitadelSC2.662.6622.2222.22-1.48-1.48
Wake ForestACC1.921.9240.0040.00-0.38-0.38
Virginia TechACC1.921.9238.7138.71-0.43-0.43
High PointBSth1.901.9051.8551.850.070.07
NC WilmingtonCAA1.861.8628.5728.57-0.80-0.80
North Carolina St.ACC1.831.8369.7069.700.720.72
East CarolinaCUSA1.781.7852.0052.000.070.07
James MadisonCAA1.781.7857.5857.580.270.27
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.751.7551.5251.520.050.05
RutgersBE1.721.7246.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Georgia TechACC0.310.3151.6151.610.010.01
DukeACC0.270.2784.3884.380.190.19
ClemsonACC0.220.2241.9441.94-0.04-0.04
CampbellBSth0.210.2136.6736.67-0.06-0.06
Virginia Military InstBSth0.210.2139.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.200.2070.9770.970.080.08
William & MaryCAA0.190.1941.3841.38-0.03-0.03
MarylandACC0.190.1964.7164.710.060.06
VirginiaACC0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
PresbyterianBSth0.180.1817.2417.24-0.12-0.12
Gardner WebbBSth0.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
MercerASun0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Georgia St.CAA0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.150.1538.4638.46-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
MassachusettsA100.140.1465.6265.620.050.05
Austin PeayOVC0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
NC AshevilleBSth0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.140.1469.7069.700.050.05
Old DominionCAA0.140.1416.6716.67-0.09-0.09
TowsonCAA0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
DelawareCAA0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Miami FLACC0.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
UABCUSA0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1110.0010.00-0.09-0.09
PrincetonIvy0.110.1159.2659.260.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.1142.3142.31-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyGWC0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
HamptonMEAC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
LouisvilleBE0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
HowardMEAC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Seton HallBE0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
CharlotteA100.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
ButlerA100.090.0975.7675.760.040.04
ColgatePat0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.090.0929.6329.63-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticSB0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
Louisiana St.SEC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Louisiana TechWAC0.090.0980.6580.650.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.090.0936.3636.36-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
DuquesneA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
XavierA100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
CincinnatiBE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
ConnecticutBE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
George MasonCAA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Central FloridaCUSA0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
TulsaCUSA0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0628.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
DePaulBE0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
IllinoisB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
IonaMAAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
KentuckySEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Notre DameBE0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
WisconsinB100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
HoustonCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Texas El PasoCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PittsburghBE0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
South FloridaBE0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
SyracuseBE0.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
VillanovaBE0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.7593.750.020.02
IowaB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.037.147.14-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.030.0348.0048.00-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.WAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00