NC Greensboro

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	327.0
Current RPI:	327
Expected SOS:	304
Current SOS:	304
Current Record:	7-22
Expected Record:	7-22
Current Conf Record:	7-13
Expected Conf Record:	7-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-11
Current OOC Record:	0-9
Expected OOC Record:	0-9
Expected OOC RPI:	337
Expected OOC SOS:	205

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-22	327.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for NC Greensboro.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	High Point (249.0)	BSth	A	81-73	L	0%
11-16	East Carolina (100.0)	CUSA	A	76-73	L	0%
11-19	Virginia Tech (177.0)	ACC	H	87-96	L	0%
11-25	Rutgers (109.0)	BE	H	80-87	L	0%
11-28	North Carolina A&T (213.0)	MEAC	H	79-90	L	0%
12-1	The Citadel (330.0)	SC	H	84-54	W	100%
12-16	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	A	85-73	L	0%
12-19	NC Wilmington (301.0)	CAA	A	87-73	L	0%
12-22	Wake Forest (170.0)	ACC	H	70-84	L	0%
12-31	North Carolina St. (33.0)	ACC	A	89-68	L	0%
1-5	Davidson (61.0)	SC	A	85-53	L	0%
1-12	Western Carolina (243.0)	SC	A	62-59	L	0%
1-14	Appalachian St. (265.0)	SC	A	83-70	L	0%
1-16	Wofford (250.0)	SC	H	71-52	W	100%
1-20	Furman (343.0)	SC	H	61-69	L	0%
1-24	Samford (291.0)	SC	H	66-64	W	100%
1-27	Chattanooga (292.0)	SC	H	77-69	W	100%
1-31	Elon (174.0)	SC	H	66-72	L	0%
2-2	College of Charleston (133.0)	SC	A	81-59	L	0%
2-7	Furman (343.0)	SC	A	65-88	W	100%
2-9	Wofford (250.0)	SC	A	59-50	L	0%
2-14	Western Carolina (243.0)	SC	H	68-70	L	0%
2-17	Appalachian St. (265.0)	SC	H	68-76	L	0%
2-21	Chattanooga (292.0)	SC	A	68-94	W	100%
2-23	Samford (291.0)	SC	A	75-71	L	0%
2-27	Georgia Southern (266.0)	SC	H	60-66	L	0%
3-2	Elon (174.0)	SC	A	80-66	L	0%
3-8	Chattanooga (292.0)	SC	N	81-87	W	100%
3-9	Elon (174.0)	SC	N	68-61	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

NC Greensboro's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

NC Greensboro's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against NC Greensboro.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
NC Greensboro	SC	26.45	26.45	22.96	22.96	-14.30	-14.30
Elon	SC	6.05	6.05	59.26	59.26	1.12	1.12
Chattanooga	SC	6.00	6.00	40.74	40.74	-1.11	-1.11
Appalachian St.	SC	4.47	4.47	40.74	40.74	-0.83	-0.83
Samford	SC	4.37	4.37	31.03	31.03	-1.66	-1.66
Western Carolina	SC	4.36	4.36	34.48	34.48	-1.35	-1.35
Furman	SC	4.36	4.36	14.81	14.81	-3.06	-3.06
Wofford	SC	4.28	4.28	37.93	37.93	-1.03	-1.03
College of Charleston	SC	2.78	2.78	71.88	71.88	1.22	1.22
Davidson	SC	2.73	2.73	77.42	77.42	1.49	1.49
Georgia Southern	SC	2.72	2.72	36.67	36.67	-0.72	-0.72
The Citadel	SC	2.66	2.66	22.22	22.22	-1.48	-1.48
Wake Forest	ACC	1.92	1.92	40.00	40.00	-0.38	-0.38
Virginia Tech	ACC	1.92	1.92	38.71	38.71	-0.43	-0.43
High Point	BSth	1.90	1.90	51.85	51.85	0.07	0.07
NC Wilmington	CAA	1.86	1.86	28.57	28.57	-0.80	-0.80
North Carolina St.	ACC	1.83	1.83	69.70	69.70	0.72	0.72
East Carolina	CUSA	1.78	1.78	52.00	52.00	0.07	0.07
James Madison	CAA	1.78	1.78	57.58	57.58	0.27	0.27
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	1.75	1.75	51.52	51.52	0.05	0.05
Rutgers	BE	1.72	1.72	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.31	0.31	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.27	0.27	84.38	84.38	0.19	0.19
Clemson	ACC	0.22	0.22	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.21	0.21	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.21	0.21	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.20	0.20	70.97	70.97	0.08	0.08
William & Mary	CAA	0.19	0.19	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.19	0.19	64.71	64.71	0.06	0.06
Virginia	ACC	0.19	0.19	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Presbyterian	BSth	0.18	0.18	17.24	17.24	-0.12	-0.12
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.18	0.18	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Mercer	ASun	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Georgia St.	CAA	0.17	0.17	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.16	0.16	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.15	0.15	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Columbia	Ivy	0.15	0.15	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.15	0.15	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.15	0.15	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Austin Peay	OVC	0.14	0.14	20.69	20.69	-0.08	-0.08
NC Asheville	BSth	0.14	0.14	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.14	0.14	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Old Dominion	CAA	0.14	0.14	16.67	16.67	-0.09	-0.09
Towson	CAA	0.14	0.14	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.14	0.14	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.13	0.13	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
UAB	CUSA	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Jacksonville	ASun	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.11	10.00	10.00	-0.09	-0.09
Princeton	Ivy	0.11	0.11	59.26	59.26	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.11	0.11	42.31	42.31	-0.02	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.11	0.11	35.71	35.71	-0.03	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.11	0.11	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
Hampton	MEAC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.11	0.11	85.29	85.29	0.08	0.08
Howard	MEAC	0.11	0.11	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Seton Hall	BE	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.09	0.09	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Butler	A10	0.09	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Colgate	Pat	0.09	0.09	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.09	0.09	29.63	29.63	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.09	0.09	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.09	0.09	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.09	0.09	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.09	0.09	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.07	0.07	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	93.75	93.75	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.03	0.03	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00