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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


NC Asheville

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:217.0
Current RPI:217
Expected SOS:245
Current SOS:245
Current Record:13-16
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:10-7
Expected Conf Record:10-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:178
Expected OOC SOS:28



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16217.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for NC Asheville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Western Carolina (243.0)SCH71-61W100%0.0
11-11NC Wilmington (301.0)CAAA67-59L0%0.0
11-15Tennessee (59.0)SECN75-68L0%0.0
11-16Akron (43.0)MACN63-82L0%0.0
11-18Providence (91.0)BEN72-67L0%0.0
11-23North Carolina St. (33.0)ACCA82-80L0%0.0
11-29South Carolina Upstate (225.0)ASunH71-73L0%0.0
12-15Ohio St. (10.0)B10A90-72L0%0.0
12-18Northeastern (159.0)CAAA73-79W100%0.0
12-21St. John's (96.0)BEA65-72W100%0.0
1-2Charlotte (68.0)A10A71-63L0%0.0
1-5Liberty (288.0)BSthA69-83W100%0.0
1-9Gardner Webb (194.0)BSthA78-71L0%0.0
1-12Radford (316.0)BSthH79-61W100%0.0
1-16Charleston Southern (189.0)BSthA74-68L0%0.0
1-19Longwood (332.0)BSthH68-65W100%0.0
1-23Coastal Carolina (259.0)BSthH63-60W100%0.0
1-26High Point (249.0)BSthH69-58W100%0.0
1-30Presbyterian (340.0)BSthA74-77W100%0.0
2-2Campbell (289.0)BSthA61-78W100%0.0
2-6Winthrop (269.0)BSthH69-56W100%0.0
2-8Virginia Military Inst (302.0)BSthA79-90W100%0.0
2-13Gardner Webb (194.0)BSthH65-67L0%0.0
2-16Charleston Southern (189.0)BSthH65-73L0%0.0
2-19Coastal Carolina (259.0)BSthA65-64L0%0.0
2-23Jacksonville St. (142.0)OVCH69-71L0%0.0
2-27Presbyterian (340.0)BSthH74-62W100%0.0
3-2Winthrop (269.0)BSthA70-61L0%0.0
3-5Longwood (332.0)BSthN72-87L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

NC Asheville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


NC Asheville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  NC Asheville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NC AshevilleBSth26.2126.2146.6746.67-1.75-1.75
Charleston SouthernBSth4.294.2953.8553.850.330.33
WinthropBSth4.264.2638.4638.46-0.98-0.98
PresbyterianBSth4.234.2318.5218.52-2.67-2.67
Coastal CarolinaBSth4.214.2141.6741.67-0.70-0.70
Gardner WebbBSth4.204.2057.1457.140.600.60
LongwoodBSth4.084.0817.2417.24-2.67-2.67
LibertyBSth2.632.6338.7138.71-0.59-0.59
CampbellBSth2.522.5237.9337.93-0.61-0.61
Virginia Military InstBSth2.492.4940.7440.74-0.46-0.46
RadfordBSth2.462.4635.7135.71-0.70-0.70
High PointBSth2.402.4055.5655.560.270.27
Western CarolinaSC1.841.8440.0040.00-0.37-0.37
CharlotteA101.841.8464.5264.520.530.53
TennesseeSEC1.811.8161.2961.290.410.41
NortheasternCAA1.811.8164.5264.520.530.53
NC WilmingtonCAA1.811.8128.5728.57-0.77-0.77
AkronMAC1.791.7980.0080.001.071.07
Ohio St.B101.791.7978.1278.121.001.00
Jacksonville St.OVC1.781.7856.0056.000.210.21
ProvidenceBE1.751.7553.3353.330.120.12
St. John'sBE1.751.7553.3353.330.120.12
North Carolina St.ACC1.721.7269.7069.700.680.68
South Carolina UpstateASun1.721.7243.3343.33-0.23-0.23
The CitadelSC0.290.2921.4321.43-0.17-0.17
College of CharlestonSC0.270.2772.7372.730.120.12
GeorgetownBE0.220.2280.6580.650.140.14
William & MaryCAA0.200.2041.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.190.1937.0437.04-0.05-0.05
East Tennessee St.ASun0.180.1829.0329.03-0.07-0.07
WoffordSC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.180.1820.6920.69-0.10-0.10
James MadisonCAA0.170.1758.8258.820.030.03
OhioMAC0.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
Appalachian St.SC0.170.1744.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityAE0.160.1658.6258.620.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
HamptonMEAC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Virginia CommonwealthA100.140.1476.4776.470.080.08
Old DominionCAA0.140.1416.6716.67-0.10-0.10
DelawareCAA0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
CreightonMVC0.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
AlabamaSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
NC GreensboroSC0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
DePaulBE0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.CAA0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1410.0010.00-0.11-0.11
Seton HallBE0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
IllinoisB100.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
MassachusettsA100.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
MississippiSEC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Wichita St.MVC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
TowsonCAA0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
CornellIvy0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.110.1119.3519.35-0.07-0.07
East CarolinaCUSA0.110.1153.8553.850.010.01
LipscombASun0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
DavidsonSC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
HowardMEAC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
CincinnatiBE0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
NebraskaB100.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
George MasonCAA0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
RichmondA100.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
Penn St.B100.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
BelmontOVC0.090.0980.0080.000.060.06
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0952.9452.940.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
FurmanSC0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ElonSC0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
MercerASun0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Notre DameBE0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
RutgersBE0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SyracuseBE0.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0840.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
St. LouisA100.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
VirginiaACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
MichiganB100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
DukeACC0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Florida InternationalSB0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
MarquetteBE0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.060.0648.0048.00-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PittsburghBE0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
SamfordSC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South FloridaBE0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas San AntonioWAC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
TempleA100.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
XavierA100.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.030.0372.7372.730.020.02
OregonP120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.7593.750.030.03
Iowa St.B120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
ColgatePat0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
ButlerA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DuquesneA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
Louisiana St.SEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
OaklandSum0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Southern MississippiCUSA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Texas St.WAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Chicago St.GWC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
MarylandACC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00