NC Asheville

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	115.4
Current RPI:	116
Expected SOS:	219
Current SOS:	221
Current Record:	15-7
Expected Record:	18-9
Current Conf Record:	13-1
Expected Conf Record:	16-2
Probability of Auto Bid:	42.69%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-1
Current OOC Record:	2-6
Expected OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC RPI:	220
Expected OOC SOS:	47

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-7	94.5	6.64%
19-8	105.8	32.22%
18-9	118.0	44.00%
17-10	133.3	15.37%
16-11	150.6	1.71%
15-12	173.4	0.05%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for NC Asheville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	North Carolina St. (62.9)	ACC	A	84-75	L	0%	0.0
11-13	North Carolina (4.6)	ACC	H	75-91	L	0%	0.0
11-24	Connecticut (27.1)	BE	N	73-63	L	0%	0.0
11-25	College of Charleston (128.5)	SC	N	66-68	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Utah (272.4)	P12	N	87-65	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Gardner Webb (270.8)	BSth	A	60-66	W	100%	0.0
12-4	South Carolina Upstate (159.3)	ASun	H	88-81	W	100%	0.0
12-20	Tennessee (136.4)	SEC	A	72-68	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Western Carolina (259.9)	SC	A	86-67	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	A	68-73	W	100%	0.0
1-2	Radford (335.2)	BSth	A	56-66	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Virginia Military Inst (264.1)	BSth	H	94-85	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Liberty (309.6)	BSth	H	98-75	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Campbell (174.5)	BSth	A	82-89	W	100%	0.0
1-14	High Point (283.4)	BSth	A	79-86	W	100%	0.0
1-17	Coastal Carolina (116.0)	BSth	H	88-81	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Charleston Southern (151.0)	BSth	H	88-93	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Presbyterian (253.5)	BSth	A	58-66	W	100%	0.0
1-26	High Point (283.4)	BSth	H	90-70	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Campbell (174.5)	BSth	H	95-84	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Virginia Military Inst (264.1)	BSth	A	86-89	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Liberty (309.6)	BSth	A	51-65	W	100%	0.0
2-11	Radford (335.2)	BSth	H	0-0		95%	17.8
2-14	Coastal Carolina (116.0)	BSth	A	0-0		40%	-2.9
2-18	Ohio (63.5)	MAC	A	0-0		23%	-8.0
2-23	Gardner Webb (270.8)	BSth	H	0-0		83%	10.5
2-25	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	H	0-0		85%	11.5

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

NC Asheville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

NC Asheville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against NC Asheville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
NC Asheville	BSth	26.54	26.42	70.54	69.71	10.90	10.41
Gardner Webb	BSth	3.21	4.69	36.36	41.02	-0.88	-0.84
Campbell	BSth	5.39	4.68	60.87	59.63	1.17	0.90
Winthrop	BSth	3.31	4.67	36.36	36.71	-0.90	-1.24
Coastal Carolina	BSth	3.10	4.66	76.47	75.61	1.64	2.39
Radford	BSth	3.22	4.65	9.09	13.88	-2.64	-3.36
Liberty	BSth	5.27	4.65	30.00	29.30	-2.11	-1.92
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	5.26	4.64	50.00	47.83	0.00	-0.20
High Point	BSth	5.32	4.64	35.00	35.37	-1.60	-1.36
Presbyterian	BSth	3.27	2.96	42.86	45.27	-0.47	-0.28
Charleston Southern	BSth	3.20	2.95	52.63	58.74	0.17	0.52
College of Charleston	SC	2.44	2.02	56.52	58.60	0.32	0.35
North Carolina St.	ACC	2.46	2.01	69.57	63.24	0.96	0.53
Western Carolina	SC	2.37	1.95	31.82	35.00	-0.86	-0.58
Tennessee	SEC	2.37	1.91	42.86	42.75	-0.34	-0.28
North Carolina	ACC	2.32	1.91	86.36	82.60	1.69	1.25
Connecticut	BE	2.32	1.88	66.67	62.75	0.77	0.48
Ohio	MAC	0.00	1.85	81.82	77.21	0.00	1.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	2.27	1.85	57.14	58.09	0.32	0.30
Utah	P12	2.27	1.85	19.05	15.55	-1.41	-1.28
The Citadel	SC	0.44	0.37	9.52	11.44	-0.35	-0.29
Clemson	ACC	0.21	0.29	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.24	0.25	35.00	39.29	-0.07	-0.05
Wofford	SC	0.30	0.23	59.09	57.93	0.05	0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.30	0.22	47.83	43.66	-0.01	-0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.21	0.20	12.50	13.44	-0.15	-0.15
East Carolina	CUSA	0.20	0.20	44.44	41.71	-0.02	-0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.25	0.19	27.27	35.02	-0.11	-0.06
South Carolina	SEC	0.20	0.19	40.91	39.56	-0.04	-0.04
Elon	SC	0.24	0.19	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.20	0.17	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.01
Furman	SC	0.20	0.16	47.62	48.83	-0.01	-0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.20	0.16	34.78	33.46	-0.06	-0.05
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.16	81.82	76.80	0.06	0.08
Kentucky	SEC	0.20	0.16	95.83	92.57	0.19	0.13
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.15	86.36	83.09	0.08	0.10
Maryland	ACC	0.15	0.15	59.09	50.82	0.03	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.10	0.14	60.87	59.76	0.02	0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.17	0.14	31.82	31.31	-0.06	-0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.21	0.13	36.36	38.48	-0.06	-0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.17	0.13	60.87	58.16	0.04	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.20	0.13	71.43	66.60	0.09	0.04
Jacksonville	ASun	0.10	0.13	17.39	22.00	-0.07	-0.07
Georgia	SEC	0.15	0.13	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.19	0.13	39.13	36.10	-0.04	-0.04
Cincinnati	BE	0.15	0.13	69.57	65.47	0.06	0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.10	0.13	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.13	10.00	14.93	-0.08	-0.09
Davidson	SC	0.15	0.13	76.19	76.76	0.08	0.07
Florida St.	ACC	0.16	0.13	72.73	71.71	0.07	0.05
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.12	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.05
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.18	0.12	25.00	28.52	-0.09	-0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.14	0.12	56.52	55.20	0.02	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.10	0.12	65.00	60.02	0.03	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.10	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.17	0.10	86.96	85.46	0.12	0.07
Purdue	B10	0.15	0.10	65.22	60.58	0.05	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.10	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.10	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.05
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.00	0.10	25.00	37.58	-0.00	-0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.10	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	34.78	38.42	-0.03	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.15	0.09	52.38	52.86	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.09	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.10	0.09	76.00	72.50	0.05	0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.09	8.70	11.67	-0.04	-0.07
Samford	SC	0.10	0.09	33.33	35.26	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.09	35.29	39.85	-0.01	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.09	75.00	75.78	0.05	0.05
Stanford	P12	0.10	0.09	69.57	68.29	0.04	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.09	69.57	65.15	0.04	0.03
Georgia Southern	SC	0.10	0.09	40.00	41.30	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.09	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.09	0.09	33.33	37.25	-0.03	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.09	95.83	92.01	0.04	0.08
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.09	69.57	65.87	0.04	0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.14	0.09	30.43	26.44	-0.06	-0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.09	39.13	42.12	-0.02	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.06	0.07	33.33	37.16	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.07	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.11	0.07	30.00	27.84	-0.05	-0.03
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.11	0.07	13.64	16.35	-0.08	-0.05
Old Dominion	CAA	0.11	0.07	60.00	58.29	0.02	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.00	0.07	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.07	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.07	79.17	78.10	0.03	0.04
Georgia St.	CAA	0.10	0.07	66.67	69.69	0.03	0.03
Lehigh	Pat	0.10	0.07	73.91	74.91	0.05	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.07	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.10	0.07	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.06	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.06	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.06	69.57	73.28	0.02	0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.00	0.06	0.00	4.02	-0.00	-0.06
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.06	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.05	0.06	75.00	74.61	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.06	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.06	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.06	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.06	70.83	71.05	0.02	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.06	34.78	33.43	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.10	0.06	70.83	71.64	0.04	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.06	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.06	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.06	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.10	0.06	19.05	24.61	-0.06	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.10	0.06	90.48	87.91	0.08	0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.06	73.91	68.58	0.05	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.06	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.06	21.74	21.70	-0.03	-0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.06	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.00	0.06	68.18	67.91	0.00	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.00	0.06	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.00	0.06	68.42	66.45	0.00	0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.09	0.06	4.76	9.95	-0.08	-0.05
Creighton	MVC	0.09	0.06	87.50	85.41	0.07	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.06	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.03
Holy Cross	Pat	0.10	0.06	40.91	42.05	-0.02	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.09	0.06	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.06	69.57	71.51	0.04	0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.00	0.06	55.00	54.48	0.00	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.06	65.22	62.65	0.03	0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.06	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.00	0.06	30.00	34.15	-0.00	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.09	0.06	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.10	0.06	60.87	61.37	0.02	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.04	72.73	68.28	0.03	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.04	82.61	80.42	0.04	0.02
Army	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	41.72	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.03	9.52	13.19	-0.04	-0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.03	75.00	76.00	0.03	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.03	65.00	66.70	0.02	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.02
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	39.13	44.52	-0.01	-0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	33.33	33.88	-0.02	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	45.00	41.76	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.03	30.00	31.54	-0.02	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.03	25.00	25.13	-0.03	-0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	80.00	76.84	0.03	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.00	0.03	68.18	69.10	0.00	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.00	0.03	37.50	38.33	-0.00	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.97	-0.02	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.00	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.00	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.03	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.00	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.03	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.00	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.00	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.03	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.03
Maine	AE	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.00	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.00	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.00	-0.03
Providence	BE	0.00	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.00	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.00	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.00	0.03	4.35	9.66	-0.00	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.00	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.03	82.61	84.57	0.03	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.00	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.00	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.02	-0.00	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.03	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.03	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.03	28.00	28.91	-0.02	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.03	82.61	81.44	0.03	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.03	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	73.97	0.02	0.01