live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Mount St. Mary's

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:257.7
Current RPI:261
Expected SOS:326
Current SOS:336
Current Record:8-11
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:4-4
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-8
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:270
Expected OOC SOS:332



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-11176.40.09%
17-12192.10.84%
16-13210.63.98%
15-14226.812.42%
14-15242.521.42%
13-16258.925.29%
12-17274.820.49%
11-18290.311.18%
10-19305.63.61%
9-20316.40.57%
8-21327.40.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mount St. Mary's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Marquette (52.9)BEA80-59L0%0.0
11-13Notre Dame (57.8)ACCA88-62L0%0.0
11-15Georgetown (144.1)BEA102-68L0%0.0
11-18North Florida (242.2)ASunN84-81W100%0.0
11-24Ohio (173.2)MACA96-77L0%0.0
11-27Morgan St. (310.3)MEACH63-69L0%0.0
12-2Loyola MD (314.9)PatH80-75W100%0.0
12-5Pittsburgh (188.1)ACCA82-78L0%0.0
12-9Lehigh (237.6)PatA75-60L0%0.0
12-18American (314.5)PatA56-59W100%0.0
12-22Coppin St. (342.7)MEACA53-66W100%0.0
12-29Wagner (144.0)NECA76-57L0%0.0
12-31LIU Brooklyn (276.7)NECA71-57L0%0.0
1-4Bryant (330.9)NECH96-80W100%0.0
1-6Central Connecticut (253.0)NECH78-51W100%0.0
1-11Sacred Heart (315.8)NECH81-75W100%0.0
1-13St. Francis PA (157.7)NECA80-81W100%0.0
1-18St. Francis NY (283.4)NECA81-73L0%0.0
1-20Fairleigh Dickinson (280.4)NECA73-72L0%0.0
1-25LIU Brooklyn (276.7)NECH0-065%4.2
1-27St. Francis NY (283.4)NECH0-069%5.5
2-1Robert Morris (152.6)NECA0-025%-7.6
2-3St. Francis PA (157.7)NECH0-043%-1.9
2-8Central Connecticut (253.0)NECA0-045%-1.4
2-10Bryant (330.9)NECA0-059%2.4
2-15Fairleigh Dickinson (280.4)NECH0-063%3.7
2-17Sacred Heart (315.8)NECA0-046%-1.2
2-22Robert Morris (152.6)NECH0-046%-1.2
2-24Wagner (144.0)NECH0-045%-1.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mount St. Mary's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mount St. Mary's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mount St. Mary's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mount St. Mary'sNEC26.3326.4050.6748.950.35-0.55
St. Francis PANEC3.184.4556.2561.720.401.04
Central ConnecticutNEC3.134.4355.0049.970.31-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC3.114.4229.4132.88-1.28-1.51
WagnerNEC3.124.4262.5063.520.781.20
BryantNEC3.054.4110.0016.87-2.44-2.92
Robert MorrisNEC0.564.4157.1460.100.080.89
LIU BrooklynNEC3.074.4036.8440.71-0.81-0.82
Sacred HeartNEC3.074.4031.5833.93-1.13-1.41
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC3.034.3918.7529.70-1.89-1.78
AmericanPat3.002.0026.3226.96-1.42-0.92
LehighPat2.841.9435.2942.70-0.84-0.28
Coppin St.MEAC2.911.9010.0018.46-2.33-1.20
Loyola MDPat2.701.8523.5329.73-1.43-0.75
Notre DameACC2.701.8161.1159.650.600.35
MarquetteBE2.771.8166.6759.170.920.33
GeorgetownBE2.761.8166.6752.440.920.09
PittsburghACC2.701.7836.8428.57-0.71-0.76
Morgan St.MEAC2.691.7829.4138.05-1.11-0.43
OhioMAC2.691.7543.7546.59-0.34-0.12
North FloridaASun2.631.7233.3336.45-0.88-0.47
NavyPat0.550.3960.0055.160.110.04
HartfordAE0.400.3550.0045.930.00-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.360.3030.0032.58-0.14-0.11
UMass LowellAE0.340.2733.3333.87-0.11-0.09
NJITASun0.290.2538.8942.58-0.06-0.04
Seton HallBE0.290.2475.0067.910.150.09
ArmyPat0.290.2461.1160.440.060.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.280.2442.1146.09-0.04-0.02
LafayettePat0.280.2422.2227.46-0.15-0.11
BrownIvy0.260.2350.0045.130.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.270.2347.3742.16-0.01-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.280.2078.9569.820.160.08
RutgersB100.270.2055.0046.650.03-0.01
DePaulBE0.270.2042.1134.30-0.04-0.06
Boston CollegeACC0.130.2065.0054.600.040.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.2065.0056.350.040.02
Boston UniversityPat0.210.1850.0053.280.000.01
BucknellPat0.210.1861.9068.000.050.07
ColgatePat0.210.1850.0051.030.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.280.1842.1139.93-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.140.1770.0060.470.050.04
DartmouthIvy0.270.1721.4326.34-0.15-0.08
FairfieldMAAC0.220.1538.8944.07-0.05-0.02
DukeACC0.210.1589.4785.240.160.10
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.270.1555.5657.250.030.02
DuquesneA100.140.1570.0058.090.060.02
MaineAE0.200.1410.5314.83-0.16-0.10
SienaMAAC0.140.1428.5729.93-0.06-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.1257.8966.270.010.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.210.1210.0019.62-0.16-0.07
Stony BrookAE0.140.1236.8445.19-0.04-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.120.008.42-0.14-0.10
Penn St.B100.210.1261.9055.820.050.01
RiderMAAC0.080.1265.0065.330.020.04
HowardMEAC0.140.1210.5326.29-0.11-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.210.1215.0020.28-0.15-0.07
FordhamA100.140.1231.5829.03-0.05-0.05
West VirginiaB120.270.1280.0076.040.160.06
ButlerBE0.140.1266.6763.070.050.03
CreightonBE0.070.1275.0070.720.030.05
Miami OHMAC0.070.1247.0641.38-0.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.140.1294.7490.310.120.09
XavierBE0.070.1285.7180.060.050.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.1217.6534.76-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.140.1277.7870.410.080.05
BuffaloMAC0.000.1272.2274.940.000.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.210.1141.1839.14-0.04-0.02
SyracuseACC0.200.1168.4261.280.080.03
Georgia TechACC0.270.1152.6343.040.01-0.02
MissouriSEC0.150.0966.6763.150.050.02
PrincetonIvy0.150.0952.9460.230.010.02
DaytonA100.150.0947.3750.94-0.010.00
IonaMAAC0.150.0960.0064.130.030.03
MarylandB100.150.0966.6763.130.050.02
ManhattanMAAC0.150.0950.0050.860.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.0931.5836.43-0.05-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.140.0933.3333.76-0.05-0.03
TowsonCAA0.210.0963.1665.980.060.03
Ball St.MAC0.220.0961.1158.710.050.02
LSUSEC0.210.0961.1153.190.050.01
NorthwesternB100.140.0955.0050.370.010.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0950.0052.500.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0970.0071.220.030.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.0925.0043.180.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0926.3230.450.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.070.0973.6869.660.030.03
VirginiaACC0.070.0994.7486.110.070.06
DrexelCAA0.070.0930.0030.97-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.140.0965.0058.540.040.01
YaleIvy0.140.0941.1847.61-0.02-0.00
ClemsonACC0.150.0984.2173.180.100.04
New HampshireAE0.130.0933.3340.10-0.04-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0976.1972.570.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.130.0866.6755.900.040.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.0820.0023.33-0.08-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.130.0842.1132.46-0.02-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.080.0616.6716.15-0.05-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0657.1453.040.010.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0690.4888.970.060.05
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0650.0048.730.00-0.00
DenverSum0.070.0633.3336.47-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0616.6724.90-0.05-0.03
LipscombASun0.070.0652.9459.380.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0633.3336.930.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.070.0611.1118.00-0.05-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.0646.6747.00-0.01-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.0647.0654.68-0.010.01
Michigan St.B100.140.0685.7183.760.100.04
VCUA100.140.0660.0059.710.030.01
AkronMAC0.000.0647.0644.920.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.0610.0016.77-0.12-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0658.8249.740.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0662.5058.710.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0644.4444.91-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0666.6767.670.030.02
Chicago St.WAC0.140.060.003.06-0.14-0.05
TulaneAmer0.070.0663.1657.870.020.01
Wichita St.Amer0.140.0678.9577.380.080.03
Virginia TechACC0.070.0670.0060.400.030.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0642.1140.460.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.060.0671.4370.250.030.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0661.9063.170.000.01
Little RockSB0.000.0622.2225.190.00-0.03
Ohio St.B100.000.0681.8276.870.000.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0663.1657.530.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0621.0523.520.00-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0317.6519.29-0.05-0.02
George MasonA100.070.0345.0041.29-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0345.0043.49-0.01-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.0026.13-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.070.0335.2935.54-0.02-0.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0373.6871.600.030.01
MaristMAAC0.070.0321.0521.99-0.04-0.02
MichiganB100.070.0376.1970.800.040.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0372.2258.880.030.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0327.7841.03-0.03-0.01
USCP120.070.0371.4368.300.030.01
WoffordSC0.070.0368.7563.660.030.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0344.4446.03-0.01-0.00
Kansas St.B120.070.0375.0065.320.030.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0368.4263.610.030.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0344.4446.66-0.01-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0325.0039.91-0.04-0.01
RichmondA100.070.0331.5834.35-0.03-0.01
VMISC0.070.0325.0024.14-0.03-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0342.8635.22-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0368.4270.820.030.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0352.9452.250.000.00
DelawareCAA0.070.0347.3743.00-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0329.4133.93-0.03-0.01
IndianaB100.070.0360.0052.880.010.00
PurdueB100.070.0390.4888.390.060.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0352.9455.030.000.00
VermontAE0.070.0375.0077.870.030.02
WisconsinB100.070.0350.0046.270.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0389.4785.550.050.02
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0352.6347.380.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.070.0343.7549.22-0.01-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0328.5731.24-0.03-0.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0370.5973.150.030.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0368.4254.040.020.00
OregonP120.060.0365.0063.810.020.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0370.5969.630.030.01
UMBCAE0.060.0355.5655.550.010.00