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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Mount St. Mary's

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:151.0
Current RPI:151
Expected SOS:219
Current SOS:219
Current Record:19-15
Expected Record:19-15
Current Conf Record:17-4
Expected Conf Record:17-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:18-5
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:187
Expected OOC SOS:9



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-15151.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mount St. Mary's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11West Virginia (24.0)B12A87-59L0%0.0
11-14Iowa St. (21.0)B12A73-55L0%0.0
11-16Minnesota (20.0)B10A80-56L0%0.0
11-18George Mason (103.0)A10A76-78W100%0.0
11-21Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCA73-63L0%0.0
11-23UT Arlington (45.0)SBA80-71L0%0.0
11-26Michigan (25.0)B10A64-47L0%0.0
11-28Arkansas (28.0)SECA89-76L0%0.0
12-3Loyola MD (212.0)PatA64-57L0%0.0
12-7UMBC (165.0)AEH70-78L0%0.0
12-10Lehigh (97.0)PatH71-90L0%0.0
12-19Bucknell (63.0)PatA81-65L0%0.0
12-22Coppin St. (336.0)MEACH87-49W100%0.0
12-29LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECA65-67W100%0.0
12-31Wagner (244.0)NECH57-56W100%0.0
1-5Bryant (285.0)NECA72-71L0%0.0
1-7Central Connecticut (344.0)NECA68-77W100%0.0
1-12Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECH77-70W100%0.0
1-14St. Francis PA (258.0)NECH78-72W100%0.0
1-19Sacred Heart (304.0)NECA75-86W100%0.0
1-21St. Francis NY (348.0)NECA47-55W100%0.0
1-26Robert Morris (237.0)NECH48-47W100%0.0
1-28Sacred Heart (304.0)NECH67-53W100%0.0
2-2Bryant (285.0)NECH77-70W100%0.0
2-4Central Connecticut (344.0)NECH52-54L0%0.0
2-9Robert Morris (237.0)NECA70-74W100%0.0
2-11St. Francis PA (258.0)NECA62-81W100%0.0
2-16Wagner (244.0)NECA69-65L0%0.0
2-18Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECA74-79W100%0.0
2-23LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECH58-62L0%0.0
2-25St. Francis NY (348.0)NECH77-62W100%0.0
3-1Sacred Heart (304.0)NECH76-73W100%0.0
3-4Robert Morris (237.0)NECH75-66W100%0.0
3-7St. Francis PA (258.0)NECH71-61W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mount St. Mary's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mount St. Mary's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mount St. Mary's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mount St. Mary'sNEC26.5126.5159.3359.334.954.95
St. Francis PANEC5.405.4053.5753.570.390.39
Robert MorrisNEC5.385.3846.6746.67-0.36-0.36
Sacred HeartNEC5.285.2844.8344.83-0.55-0.55
WagnerNEC3.973.9751.8551.850.150.15
LIU BrooklynNEC3.973.9762.0762.070.960.96
BryantNEC3.923.9234.4834.48-1.22-1.22
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC3.903.9037.0437.04-1.01-1.01
St. Francis NYNEC3.853.8510.7110.71-3.02-3.02
Central ConnecticutNEC3.853.8518.5218.52-2.42-2.42
LehighPat1.721.7260.0060.000.340.34
BucknellPat1.661.6675.7675.760.850.85
MinnesotaB101.631.6371.8871.880.710.71
Loyola MDPat1.611.6144.8344.83-0.17-0.17
ArkansasSEC1.541.5472.7372.730.700.70
West VirginiaB121.541.5475.7675.760.790.79
Iowa St.B121.541.5468.7568.750.580.58
MichiganB101.521.5267.6567.650.530.53
Southern IllinoisMVC1.511.5148.3948.39-0.05-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB1.511.5173.3373.330.710.71
Coppin St.MEAC1.471.4724.1424.14-0.76-0.76
George MasonA101.471.4761.2961.290.330.33
UMBCAE1.471.4755.5655.560.160.16
UMass LowellAE0.290.2933.3333.33-0.10-0.10
LafayettePat0.280.2827.5927.59-0.13-0.13
DuquesneA100.260.2631.2531.25-0.10-0.10
AmericanPat0.260.2626.6726.67-0.12-0.12
ArmyPat0.260.2638.7138.71-0.06-0.06
FordhamA100.240.2438.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.240.2454.8454.840.020.02
NavyPat0.240.2448.3948.39-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.220.2228.1228.12-0.10-0.10
Holy CrossPat0.210.2146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.200.2031.0331.03-0.08-0.08
TowsonCAA0.190.1959.3859.380.040.04
YaleIvy0.190.1960.7160.710.040.04
Kansas St.B120.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
TexasB120.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
ColgatePat0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
RichmondA100.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
MaineAE0.150.1519.3519.35-0.09-0.09
New HampshireAE0.150.1558.6258.620.030.03
BrownIvy0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
Texas A&MSEC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1355.8855.880.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Ohio St.B100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
Michigan St.B100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
WisconsinB100.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
IllinoisB100.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
AlbanyAE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Seton HallBE0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
MassachusettsA100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.090.0925.9325.93-0.05-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.090.0914.2914.29-0.07-0.07
St. BonaventureA100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
HofstraCAA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB100.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
KansasB120.090.0987.5087.500.070.07
OklahomaB120.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
Notre DameACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0796.9796.970.070.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
La SalleA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
MarylandB100.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
IndianaB100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
NebraskaB100.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.060.0678.1278.120.040.04
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0561.5461.540.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
HoustonAmer0.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.040.0456.6756.670.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0421.8821.88-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.040.0475.0075.000.020.02
KentuckySEC0.040.0485.2985.290.030.03
LSUSEC0.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
MissouriSEC0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
CreightonBE0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.023.333.33-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Little RockSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
XavierBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
DavidsonA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
DaytonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MercerSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
TempleAmer0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
UCLAP120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02