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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Mississippi St.

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:245.0
Current RPI:245
Expected SOS:157
Current SOS:157
Current Record:14-19
Expected Record:14-19
Current Conf Record:4-16
Expected Conf Record:4-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:222
Expected OOC SOS:348



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-19245.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACH71-56W100%0.0
11-14Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunH78-55W100%0.0
11-19Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACH94-72W100%0.0
11-23Utah St. (116.0)MWCA87-68L0%0.0
11-27Jackson St. (296.0)SWACH58-56W100%0.0
12-1Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCH65-64W100%0.0
12-5TCU (212.0)B12H61-71L0%0.0
12-13Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndN68-62W100%0.0
12-17Florida A&M (295.0)MEACH78-65W100%0.0
12-19Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunH66-53W100%0.0
12-22South Florida (232.0)AmerN71-66W100%0.0
12-23UNLV (108.0)MWCN82-66L0%0.0
1-2Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACH77-63W100%0.0
1-8Kentucky (17.0)SECA85-63L0%0.0
1-11Mississippi (94.0)SECH76-72W100%0.0
1-15Alabama (124.0)SECA80-61L0%0.0
1-18Texas A&M (148.0)SECH81-72W100%0.0
1-22Auburn (169.0)SECH82-74W100%0.0
1-25Mississippi (94.0)SECA82-63L0%0.0
1-30Florida (1.0)SECH51-62L0%0.0
2-1Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA55-49L0%0.0
2-5Texas A&M (148.0)SECA72-52L0%0.0
2-8Kentucky (17.0)SECH59-69L0%0.0
2-12Georgia (74.0)SECH55-75L0%0.0
2-15Auburn (169.0)SECA92-82L0%0.0
2-19LSU (83.0)SECA92-81L0%0.0
2-22Arkansas (77.0)SECH69-73L0%0.0
2-26Tennessee (42.0)SECH68-75L0%0.0
3-1Missouri (49.0)SECA85-66L0%0.0
3-5Georgia (74.0)SECA66-45L0%0.0
3-8South Carolina (140.0)SECH62-74L0%0.0
3-12Vanderbilt (120.0)SECN68-82W100%0.0
3-13Mississippi (94.0)SECN78-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mississippi St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mississippi St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mississippi St.SEC26.1726.1735.0435.04-7.83-7.83
MississippiSEC5.165.1656.6756.670.690.69
KentuckySEC3.693.6968.7568.751.381.38
GeorgiaSEC3.663.6656.6756.670.490.49
Texas A&MSEC3.643.6453.3353.330.240.24
VanderbiltSEC3.643.6448.2848.28-0.13-0.13
AuburnSEC3.593.5946.4346.43-0.26-0.26
South CarolinaSEC2.302.3039.3939.39-0.49-0.49
LSUSEC2.272.2758.0658.060.370.37
MissouriSEC2.232.2365.6265.620.700.70
FloridaSEC2.222.2293.9493.941.951.95
TennesseeSEC2.202.2061.2961.290.500.50
AlabamaSEC2.202.2036.6736.67-0.59-0.59
ArkansasSEC2.182.1864.5264.520.630.63
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.751.7521.4321.43-1.00-1.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.691.6931.2531.25-0.63-0.63
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.621.6264.5264.520.470.47
Jackson St.SWAC1.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
Florida A&MMEAC1.611.6141.3841.38-0.28-0.28
South FloridaAmer1.591.5938.7138.71-0.36-0.36
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.591.5932.0032.00-0.57-0.57
UNLVMWC1.561.5659.3859.380.290.29
Kennesaw St.ASun1.561.5614.2914.29-1.12-1.12
Utah St.MWC1.561.5653.3353.330.100.10
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.521.5230.0030.00-0.61-0.61
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.521.5218.5218.52-0.95-0.95
TCUB121.521.5221.4321.43-0.87-0.87
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.240.2437.9337.93-0.06-0.06
Georgia TechACC0.220.2248.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.200.2014.8114.81-0.14-0.14
Texas SouthernSWAC0.200.2056.2556.250.020.02
LipscombASun0.200.2048.2848.28-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.190.1955.1755.170.020.02
MercerASun0.190.1974.1974.190.090.09
StetsonASun0.170.1722.5822.58-0.09-0.09
Alabama A&MSWAC0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1535.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1557.1457.140.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1532.1432.14-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
North FloridaASun0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
BaylorB120.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
SMUAmer0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
Northern KentuckyASun0.140.1430.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.140.1487.1087.100.110.11
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.1446.1546.15-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.130.1325.9325.93-0.06-0.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
OklahomaB120.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Kansas St.B120.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
WyomingMWC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
NevadaMWC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1048.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
TexasB120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Texas TechB120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
FIUCUSA0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.100.10100.00100.000.100.10
ClemsonACC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
IllinoisB100.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
RutgersAmer0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
HoustonAmer0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
TempleAmer0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
TroySB0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0934.6234.62-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleAmer0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0883.8783.870.050.05
North TexasCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
West VirginiaB120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
KansasB120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
ButlerBE0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
ColoradoP120.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
UCLAP120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
DaytonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
OregonP120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Penn St.B100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.053.573.57-0.04-0.04
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
AkronMAC0.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
BelmontOVC0.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0463.3363.330.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
Michigan St.B100.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0443.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
CampbellBSth0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
DukeACC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
FordhamA100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
UC DavisBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
USCP120.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
HartfordAE0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
High PointBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Arizona St.P120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01