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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Mississippi St.

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:150.0
Current RPI:150
Expected SOS:90
Current SOS:90
Current Record:16-16
Expected Record:16-16
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-10
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:125
Expected OOC SOS:196



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-16150.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACH78-74W100%0.0
11-17UCF (68.0)AmerN86-61L0%0.0
11-18Boise St. (72.0)MWCN68-80W100%0.0
11-20UTEP (222.0)CUSAN61-54W100%0.0
11-25Lehigh (97.0)PatH73-87L0%0.0
11-28Northwestern St. (306.0)SlndH65-59W100%0.0
12-1Oregon St. (280.0)P12H74-57W100%0.0
12-4Georgia St. (104.0)SBH82-60W100%0.0
12-14East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCH65-67L0%0.0
12-19Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAN44-86W100%0.0
12-22Morehead St. (200.0)OVCH85-76W100%0.0
12-29UMKC (184.0)WACH77-54W100%0.0
1-3Alabama (78.0)SECH58-68L0%0.0
1-7LSU (193.0)SECA78-95W100%0.0
1-10Arkansas (28.0)SECA78-84W100%0.0
1-14Texas A&M (92.0)SECH67-59W100%0.0
1-17Kentucky (3.0)SECH81-88L0%0.0
1-21Tennessee (82.0)SECA91-74L0%0.0
1-25Missouri (257.0)SECH89-74W100%0.0
1-28Alabama (78.0)SECA71-62L0%0.0
1-31Mississippi (77.0)SECA88-61L0%0.0
2-4Tennessee (82.0)SECH64-59W100%0.0
2-7Auburn (113.0)SECA98-92L0%0.0
2-11South Carolina (42.0)SECH73-77L0%0.0
2-14Georgia (52.0)SECA79-72L0%0.0
2-18Florida (10.0)SECH52-57L0%0.0
2-21Mississippi (77.0)SECH82-87L0%0.0
2-25Vanderbilt (44.0)SECA77-48L0%0.0
2-28South Carolina (42.0)SECA63-57L0%0.0
3-4LSU (193.0)SECH88-76W100%0.0
3-8LSU (193.0)SECN79-52W100%0.0
3-9Alabama (78.0)SECN75-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mississippi St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mississippi St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mississippi St.SEC26.2426.2444.4444.44-2.92-2.92
AlabamaSEC5.335.3353.3353.330.360.36
LSUSEC5.275.2735.7135.71-1.51-1.51
South CarolinaSEC3.783.7865.5265.521.171.17
MississippiSEC3.763.7658.0658.060.610.61
TennesseeSEC3.753.7548.2848.28-0.13-0.13
MissouriSEC2.322.3225.8125.81-1.12-1.12
AuburnSEC2.322.3254.8454.840.220.22
ArkansasSEC2.292.2975.7675.761.181.18
KentuckySEC2.292.2984.8584.851.601.60
GeorgiaSEC2.292.2954.8454.840.220.22
VanderbiltSEC2.272.2754.5554.550.210.21
Texas A&MSEC2.252.2553.3353.330.150.15
FloridaSEC2.192.1974.1974.191.061.06
Southern MissCUSA1.691.6925.0025.00-0.84-0.84
UTEPCUSA1.651.6546.6746.67-0.11-0.11
East Tennessee St.SC1.641.6477.4277.420.900.90
Northwestern St.Slnd1.641.6437.5037.50-0.41-0.41
Georgia St.SB1.591.5962.0762.070.380.38
Morehead St.OVC1.591.5944.4444.44-0.18-0.18
Norfolk St.MEAC1.591.5950.0050.000.000.00
Boise St.MWC1.561.5664.2964.290.450.45
LehighPat1.561.5660.0060.000.310.31
Oregon St.P121.561.5613.3313.33-1.15-1.15
UCFAmer1.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
UMKCWAC1.561.5648.2848.28-0.05-0.05
OregonP120.200.2084.8584.850.140.14
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.170.1787.8887.880.130.13
MemphisAmer0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
RiceCUSA0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
Old DominionCUSA0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.1573.3373.330.070.07
Coastal CarolinaSB0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
North FloridaASun0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
UTSACUSA0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1383.3383.330.090.09
FIUCUSA0.130.1317.2417.24-0.08-0.08
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
South AlabamaSB0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
BucknellPat0.120.1276.4776.470.070.07
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1258.6258.620.020.02
MercerSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.120.1276.6776.670.060.06
TexasB120.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
BelmontOVC0.100.1077.7877.780.060.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
UCLAP120.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
MassachusettsA100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1032.1432.14-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
LamarSlnd0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0937.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0822.5822.58-0.05-0.05
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
OklahomaB120.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
NevadaMWC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
TroySB0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
UABCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
TulaneAmer0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
AmericanPat0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
CaliforniaP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
ColgatePat0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
USCP120.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0796.9796.970.070.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
TulsaAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.070.0787.5087.500.060.06
CreightonBE0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
SamfordSC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0619.2319.23-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
NavyPat0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0277.1477.140.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
IllinoisB100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0229.4129.41-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
PennIvy0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
TCUB120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
VillanovaBE0.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
High PointBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00