live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Mississippi St.

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:216.0
Current RPI:179
Expected SOS:103
Current SOS:155
Current Record:4-4
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:237
Expected OOC SOS:303



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1063.00.01%
19-1187.20.04%
18-12105.20.18%
17-13120.80.73%
16-14137.52.19%
15-15154.35.44%
14-16174.710.57%
13-17193.916.05%
12-18213.119.82%
11-19231.818.82%
10-20250.114.14%
9-21265.97.76%
8-22279.83.31%
7-23293.60.80%
6-24304.10.12%
5-25295.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Western Carolina (222.4)SCH66-56W100%0.0
11-17Mississippi Valley St. (347.5)SWACH89-68W100%0.0
11-22Utah St. (163.5)MWCH71-63W100%0.0
11-28Saint Louis (268.1)A10N50-75W100%0.0
11-29TCU (71.6)B12N52-61L0%0.0
12-6Tulane (153.6)AmerA59-54L0%0.0
12-13Oregon St. (162.8)P12A59-49L0%0.0
12-17Arkansas St. (221.8)SBH55-69L0%0.0
12-20USC Upstate (178.4)ASunN0-045%-1.5
12-23Jacksonville (337.4)ASunH0-094%18.7
12-30McNeese St. (236.8)SlndH0-075%7.9
1-2Florida St. (206.3)ACCH0-064%4.2
1-7Tennessee (131.7)SECH0-052%0.5
1-10Florida (39.8)SECA0-06%-18.8
1-13Texas A&M (58.9)SECA0-011%-14.2
1-17Vanderbilt (87.7)SECH0-037%-4.0
1-21Auburn (192.5)SECA0-036%-4.4
1-24Georgia (55.7)SECH0-031%-6.0
1-28Mississippi (99.2)SECA0-020%-10.0
1-31LSU (73.0)SECH0-039%-3.4
2-3Tennessee (131.7)SECA0-024%-8.2
2-7Arkansas (42.8)SECA0-09%-16.1
2-10Alabama (75.6)SECH0-039%-3.4
2-14Missouri (179.3)SECA0-038%-3.6
2-19Mississippi (99.2)SECH0-046%-1.2
2-21Arkansas (42.8)SECH0-027%-7.3
2-25Kentucky (1.7)SECH0-02%-23.7
2-28South Carolina (43.3)SECA0-06%-18.0
3-4Vanderbilt (87.7)SECA0-014%-12.8
3-7Missouri (179.3)SECH0-067%5.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mississippi St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mississippi St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mississippi St.SEC27.9826.1243.7534.04-3.50-8.34
ArkansasSEC0.003.9777.7871.110.001.68
VanderbiltSEC0.353.9775.0059.590.170.76
TennesseeSEC0.003.9450.0045.040.00-0.39
MississippiSEC0.313.9466.6751.490.100.12
MissouriSEC0.003.9144.4430.52-0.00-1.52
FloridaSEC0.002.3860.0063.880.000.66
LSUSEC0.002.3677.7862.420.000.59
AlabamaSEC0.352.3366.6755.460.120.25
AuburnSEC0.392.3344.4434.62-0.04-0.72
GeorgiaSEC0.002.3362.5059.110.000.42
South CarolinaSEC0.002.3262.5063.310.000.62
KentuckySEC0.002.30100.0094.570.002.05
Texas A&MSEC0.002.3077.7864.550.000.67
TCUB126.561.78100.0065.166.560.54
JacksonvilleASun0.001.7610.0018.83-0.00-1.09
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC7.341.7511.1118.64-5.71-1.10
Western CarolinaSC6.251.7525.0047.49-3.12-0.09
USC UpstateASun0.001.7360.0064.950.000.52
Saint LouisA106.251.7266.6735.182.08-0.51
Oregon St.P126.561.7271.4347.922.81-0.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.311.7225.0049.84-0.16-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.001.6950.0037.440.00-0.43
TulaneAmer6.561.6985.7153.314.690.11
Arkansas St.SB6.251.6720.0043.71-3.75-0.21
Utah St.MWC6.251.6757.1455.000.890.17
LipscombASun0.000.2325.0042.50-0.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.2044.4456.92-0.000.03
BaylorB120.000.2090.0073.960.000.10
ClemsonACC0.000.1966.6745.400.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.1988.8964.130.000.05
DaytonA100.000.1977.7869.890.000.08
MercerSC0.000.1737.5041.84-0.00-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.390.1788.8963.230.300.04
Kansas St.B120.000.1660.0037.340.00-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1611.1144.96-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1644.4447.39-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.1688.8969.540.000.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.150.0037.61-0.00-0.04
StetsonASun0.000.1511.1128.93-0.00-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.620.150.0023.23-0.62-0.08
South FloridaAmer0.000.1450.0048.630.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.1477.7851.090.000.00
TroySB0.000.1433.3340.58-0.00-0.03
PurdueB100.520.1472.7363.690.240.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.140.0016.94-0.00-0.09
SouthernSWAC0.390.140.0034.38-0.39-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.390.1450.0038.030.00-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.310.120.0038.50-0.31-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1275.0071.470.000.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1236.3633.75-0.00-0.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1225.0033.13-0.00-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1242.8652.07-0.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1242.8632.44-0.00-0.04
UCFAmer0.000.1255.5635.040.00-0.03
ArizonaP120.000.11100.0080.830.000.07
Arizona St.P120.000.1160.0054.270.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.350.1171.4364.070.150.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1110.0041.11-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1181.8264.060.000.03
UCLAP120.000.1172.7357.410.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.390.1150.0049.770.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1177.7869.420.000.04
OregonP120.000.1166.6759.200.000.02
VCUA100.000.1170.0071.520.000.05
XavierBE0.000.1180.0071.020.000.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.350.1142.8650.31-0.050.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.390.110.008.81-0.39-0.09
OklahomaB120.000.1177.7867.330.000.04
Texas TechB120.000.1188.8955.730.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1133.3363.36-0.000.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.520.100.0017.71-0.52-0.06
LamarSlnd0.520.1014.2934.33-0.37-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.390.1011.1143.93-0.30-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0955.5660.050.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.350.0962.5071.700.090.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0950.0074.090.000.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.620.0925.0028.71-0.31-0.04
SamfordSC0.000.0933.3331.37-0.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0922.2242.15-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0933.3345.26-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0955.5654.760.000.01
USCP120.390.0960.0037.230.08-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.09100.0072.030.000.04
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0944.4451.18-0.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0970.0058.440.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0960.0056.680.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0857.1456.210.000.01
FurmanSC0.310.0825.0029.26-0.16-0.03
HoustonAmer0.000.0871.4348.780.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0816.6730.49-0.00-0.03
Washington St.P120.310.0840.0029.07-0.06-0.04
ColoradoP120.000.0866.6757.580.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.390.0844.4444.76-0.04-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.390.0850.0041.530.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0850.0049.770.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0850.0056.370.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0870.0071.340.000.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.390.0833.3340.60-0.13-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0870.0064.820.000.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0866.6770.610.000.03
MassachusettsA100.000.0860.0055.530.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0833.3334.56-0.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.000.0890.0075.760.000.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.0870.0071.470.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.310.0842.8636.42-0.04-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.310.080.0039.62-0.31-0.02
TexasB120.000.0890.0081.760.000.05
West VirginiaB120.000.0890.0066.760.000.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.070.0019.58-0.00-0.04
ToledoMAC0.520.0660.0059.520.100.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0012.28-0.00-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.000.0655.5653.800.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8638.50-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0660.0061.810.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0037.67-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.360.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0625.0038.24-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0650.0052.290.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1461.280.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0675.0068.510.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0630.0029.48-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0612.5024.75-0.00-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.007.87-0.00-0.05
TempleAmer0.000.0660.0053.790.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0614.2945.52-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0622.2237.53-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0050.770.000.00
VMISC0.000.0633.3338.88-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0677.7876.160.000.03
WyomingMWC0.000.0677.7873.090.000.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0637.5050.07-0.000.00
MinnesotaB100.350.0677.7864.890.190.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.310.0657.1454.700.040.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.390.0618.1827.98-0.25-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.390.0628.5742.24-0.17-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0072.470.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0628.5731.25-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0637.5048.14-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0625.0025.95-0.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.0672.7365.950.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0655.5647.640.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.0637.5032.89-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0662.5073.580.000.03
RutgersB100.000.0660.0034.930.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0680.0069.840.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.310.0687.5085.210.230.04
BradleyMVC0.620.0533.3332.03-0.21-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0550.0044.640.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0550.0032.540.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.050.0032.05-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0028.64-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0520.0038.33-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0522.2230.96-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.0572.7351.600.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0540.0046.88-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0566.6772.380.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.05100.0085.210.000.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0540.0050.48-0.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0566.6752.270.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0572.7352.880.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0533.3338.24-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0555.5638.100.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0555.5648.830.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0316.6719.82-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0385.7170.330.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0320.0038.66-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0375.0074.350.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6777.710.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0336.3638.88-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0054.660.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0340.0050.16-0.000.00
MarylandB100.000.0390.9167.700.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0034.02-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0377.7878.200.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0357.1456.730.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0355.5638.460.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0314.2931.11-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.520.0362.5066.710.130.01
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.780.000.00
BYUWCC0.390.0366.6767.780.130.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0311.1129.64-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0390.0066.470.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0355.5665.660.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.350.030.0012.02-0.35-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0337.5048.87-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0077.970.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.590.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6738.970.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0337.5038.59-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0316.6733.24-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.390.0366.6764.900.130.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.390.0371.4359.600.170.01
OaklandHorz0.350.0330.0032.16-0.14-0.01
PortlandWCC0.390.0366.6748.960.13-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0337.5045.89-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.390.0316.6725.04-0.26-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0370.0072.770.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0387.5064.520.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0058.750.000.01
UC DavisBW0.390.0385.7161.530.280.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0337.5064.54-0.000.01
UtahP120.000.0377.7879.670.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.0387.5077.040.000.02
FordhamA100.000.0328.5728.28-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6766.690.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0390.0091.070.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0050.820.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.310.0333.3332.85-0.10-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0344.4444.99-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0350.0057.040.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0355.5640.200.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0388.8963.530.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.310.030.0024.33-0.31-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.310.0360.0049.650.06-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0064.990.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0337.5055.05-0.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.310.0337.5041.33-0.08-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0366.6751.310.000.00
VermontAE0.000.0350.0059.880.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0328.5747.18-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0345.4544.47-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6741.940.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3341.58-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0069.340.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0362.5065.190.000.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.440.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8655.67-0.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0366.6759.320.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0336.3644.37-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.310.0380.0057.470.190.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0322.2237.72-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0325.0027.83-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6743.830.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0344.4470.22-0.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0366.6757.570.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.310.0350.0033.280.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.310.0360.0040.460.06-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0390.9171.750.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0388.8981.120.000.02
RadfordBSth0.310.0350.0055.940.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6757.600.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0342.8637.04-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0085.770.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0357.1456.560.000.00