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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Mississippi St.

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:154.0
Current RPI:154
Expected SOS:79
Current SOS:79
Current Record:14-17
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:188
Expected OOC SOS:215



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17154.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyH106-88W100%0.0
11-16Southern (186.0)SWACH72-76L0%0.0
11-19Miami FL (9.0)ACCN79-105L0%0.0
11-20Texas Tech (36.0)B12N74-72L0%0.0
11-22Missouri St. (235.0)MVCN84-70W100%0.0
11-28Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCH76-51W100%0.0
12-2Texas Southern (190.0)SWACH86-73W100%0.0
12-12UMKC (286.0)WACA72-67L0%0.0
12-16Florida St. (82.0)ACCA90-66L0%0.0
12-19Tulane (227.0)AmerH69-59W100%0.0
12-23Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyH93-69W100%0.0
12-31North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACH71-48W100%0.0
1-6Texas A&M (18.0)SECH60-61L0%0.0
1-9Arkansas (133.0)SECA82-68L0%0.0
1-12Kentucky (11.0)SECA80-74L0%0.0
1-16Tennessee (143.0)SECH75-80L0%0.0
1-19Florida (55.0)SECA81-78L0%0.0
1-23Mississippi (96.0)SECH83-77W100%0.0
1-26South Carolina (65.0)SECA84-74L0%0.0
1-30Missouri (222.0)SECA62-76W100%0.0
2-2Alabama (73.0)SECH80-82L0%0.0
2-6LSU (94.0)SECA88-77L0%0.0
2-9Arkansas (133.0)SECH78-46W100%0.0
2-13Georgia (62.0)SECH57-66L0%0.0
2-16Vanderbilt (63.0)SECH75-74W100%0.0
2-20Alabama (73.0)SECA61-67W100%0.0
2-24Texas A&M (18.0)SECA68-66L0%0.0
2-27South Carolina (65.0)SECH68-58W100%0.0
3-2Mississippi (96.0)SECA86-78L0%0.0
3-5Auburn (175.0)SECH79-66W100%0.0
3-10Georgia (62.0)SECN79-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mississippi St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mississippi St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mississippi St.SEC26.0926.0940.3140.31-5.06-5.06
GeorgiaSEC3.903.9056.6756.670.520.52
Texas A&MSEC3.853.8575.0075.001.931.93
AlabamaSEC3.853.8556.6756.670.510.51
South CarolinaSEC3.853.8575.8675.861.991.99
ArkansasSEC3.853.8550.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC3.833.8363.3363.331.021.02
FloridaSEC2.392.3956.2556.250.300.30
KentuckySEC2.362.3675.7675.761.221.22
LSUSEC2.332.3356.2556.250.290.29
TennesseeSEC2.322.3242.4242.42-0.35-0.35
MissouriSEC2.312.3133.3333.33-0.77-0.77
AuburnSEC2.292.2936.6736.67-0.61-0.61
VanderbiltSEC2.232.2361.2961.290.500.50
SouthernSWAC1.791.7960.0060.000.360.36
Texas SouthernSWAC1.691.6958.0658.060.270.27
Texas TechB121.691.6960.0060.000.340.34
Florida St.ACC1.691.6958.0658.060.270.27
Miami FLACC1.691.6977.4277.420.930.93
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.671.6751.7251.720.060.06
Tennessee MartinOVC1.671.6756.6756.670.220.22
Northern ColoradoBSky1.671.6728.5728.57-0.71-0.71
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.641.6435.7135.71-0.47-0.47
TulaneAmer1.641.6436.3636.36-0.45-0.45
UMKCWAC1.641.6429.6329.63-0.67-0.67
Missouri St.MVC1.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
ClemsonACC0.280.2854.8454.840.030.03
Kansas St.B120.230.2351.5251.520.010.01
BaylorB120.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
MemphisAmer0.200.2055.8855.880.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.200.2057.5857.580.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.180.1837.5037.50-0.05-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.1524.2424.24-0.08-0.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.1535.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
IdahoBSky0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1322.8622.86-0.07-0.07
KansasB120.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1311.1111.11-0.10-0.10
Northwestern St.Slnd0.130.1320.8320.83-0.07-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Notre DameACC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
TulsaAmer0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
TexasB120.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
HoustonAmer0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.120.1224.2424.24-0.06-0.06
SeattleWAC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.1118.5218.52-0.07-0.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
BradleyMVC0.100.1012.9012.90-0.08-0.08
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
Murray St.OVC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
XavierBE0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
TCUB120.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
VirginiaACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
WinthropBSth0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
MercerSC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Iowa St.B120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0879.3179.310.050.05
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
MinnesotaB100.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
DePaulBE0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
St. John'sBE0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
ButlerBE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
DukeACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Arizona St.P120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
UCFAmer0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.060.063.453.45-0.05-0.05
South DakotaSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
DenverSum0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
WyomingMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
NavyPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01