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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.


Mississippi St.

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:75.0
Current RPI:75
Expected SOS:79
Current SOS:79
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:8-9
Expected Conf Record:8-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:13-2
Expected OOC Record:13-2
Expected OOC RPI:59
Expected OOC SOS:194



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1175.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-7Eastern Kentucky (226.0)OVCH76-66W100%0.0
11-9Akron (55.0)MACH58-68L0%0.0
11-12South Alabama (169.0)SBH80-65W100%0.0
11-17Texas A&M (165.0)B12N69-60W100%0.0
11-18Arizona (79.0)P12N67-57W100%0.0
11-21Louisiana Monroe (317.0)SBH78-63W100%0.0
11-25Tennessee Martin (326.0)OVCH76-50W100%0.0
11-27North Texas (200.0)SBH82-59W100%0.0
12-3West Virginia (57.0)BEH75-62W100%0.0
12-10Troy (260.0)SBH106-68W100%0.0
12-13Florida Atlantic (207.0)SBH75-68W100%0.0
12-17Detroit (126.0)HorzA75-80W100%0.0
12-22Northwestern St. (217.0)SlndN82-67W100%0.0
12-28Baylor (8.0)B12N54-52L0%0.0
12-31Utah St. (143.0)WACH66-64W100%0.0
1-7Arkansas (110.0)SECA98-88L0%0.0
1-12Tennessee (86.0)SECH62-58W100%0.0
1-14Alabama (36.0)SECH56-52W100%0.0
1-18Mississippi (61.0)SECA75-68L0%0.0
1-21Vanderbilt (18.0)SECA77-78W100%0.0
1-25Louisiana St. (84.0)SECH76-71W100%0.0
1-28Florida (30.0)SECA69-57L0%0.0
2-4Auburn (145.0)SECH91-88W100%0.0
2-9Mississippi (61.0)SECH70-60W100%0.0
2-11Georgia (101.0)SECH68-70L0%0.0
2-14Louisiana St. (84.0)SECA69-67L0%0.0
2-18Auburn (145.0)SECA65-55L0%0.0
2-21Kentucky (2.0)SECH64-73L0%0.0
2-25Alabama (36.0)SECA67-50L0%0.0
2-29South Carolina (194.0)SECA67-69W100%0.0
3-3Arkansas (110.0)SECH79-59W100%0.0
3-8Georgia (101.0)SECN61-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mississippi St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mississippi St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mississippi St.SEC26.0926.0962.3162.316.426.42
MississippiSEC3.813.8161.2961.290.860.86
Louisiana St.SEC3.813.8156.6756.670.510.51
ArkansasSEC3.763.7656.6756.670.500.50
AlabamaSEC3.763.7666.6766.671.251.25
AuburnSEC3.733.7348.2848.28-0.13-0.13
GeorgiaSEC3.633.6343.3343.33-0.48-0.48
VanderbiltSEC2.222.2272.7372.731.011.01
FloridaSEC2.222.2268.7568.750.830.83
KentuckySEC2.192.1993.9493.941.931.93
TennesseeSEC2.172.1756.6756.670.290.29
South CarolinaSEC2.142.1433.3333.33-0.71-0.71
Louisiana MonroeSB1.821.8211.1111.11-1.42-1.42
South AlabamaSB1.811.8159.2659.260.330.33
TroySB1.751.7534.6234.62-0.54-0.54
North TexasSB1.751.7553.5753.570.130.13
Florida AtlanticSB1.731.7335.7135.71-0.49-0.49
Texas A&MB121.661.6643.3343.33-0.22-0.22
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.641.6448.2848.28-0.06-0.06
BaylorB121.641.6478.1278.120.920.92
DetroitHorz1.641.6462.5062.500.410.41
AkronMAC1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
West VirginiaBE1.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
Northwestern St.Slnd1.591.5946.4346.43-0.11-0.11
Tennessee MartinOVC1.591.597.147.14-1.36-1.36
ArizonaP121.591.5969.7069.700.620.62
Utah St.WAC1.561.5653.3353.330.100.10
Middle TennesseeSB0.340.3480.0080.000.210.21
Western KentuckySB0.300.3045.4545.45-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.270.2739.3939.39-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.270.2746.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.270.2750.0050.000.000.00
DenverSB0.250.2570.9770.970.100.10
Florida InternationalSB0.220.2228.5728.57-0.10-0.10
Nicholls St.Slnd0.210.2128.5728.57-0.09-0.09
OklahomaB120.200.2048.3948.39-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.200.2081.8281.820.130.13
Kansas St.B120.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.180.1834.6234.62-0.06-0.06
Louisiana TechWAC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
GramblingSWAC0.170.1714.2914.29-0.12-0.12
Austin PeayOVC0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
MissouriB120.150.1588.2488.240.110.11
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
OaklandSum0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
MarquetteBE0.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
LamarSlnd0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
TexasB120.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
North FloridaASun0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutBE0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameBE0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
RutgersBE0.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.120.1218.7518.75-0.07-0.07
St. John'sBE0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
ColoradoP120.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
UABCUSA0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1137.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Florida St.ACC0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
South FloridaBE0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
HawaiiWAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiBE0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
OhioMAC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Miami FLACC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Iowa St.B120.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
HoustonCUSA0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleBE0.100.1074.2974.290.050.05
DaytonA100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Southern UtahSum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.080.0896.4396.430.070.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0832.0032.00-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.086.676.67-0.07-0.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0819.2319.23-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Seton HallBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PittsburghBE0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
South Carolina UpstateASun0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
WoffordSC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
WashingtonP120.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
XavierA100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
DePaulBE0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
UCLAP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.WAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
MemphisCUSA0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NevadaWAC0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Seattleind0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Longwoodind0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
CharlotteA100.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MercerASun0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
SyracuseBE0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ButlerHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Texas ChristianMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
UtahP120.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BelmontASun0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
George MasonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Georgia St.CAA0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
HofstraCAA0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Texas St.Slnd0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
ElonSC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
NC GreensboroSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PacificBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
StetsonASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.020.0265.3865.380.010.01
BryantNEC0.020.026.676.67-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
DavidsonSC0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
IndianaB100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
LafayettePat0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDMAAC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MonmouthNEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0211.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCAA0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01