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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Mississippi St.

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:194.9
Current RPI:50
Expected SOS:129
Current SOS:173
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:184
Expected OOC SOS:340



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-763.00.01%
21-860.50.04%
20-979.00.13%
19-1092.60.66%
18-11108.21.83%
17-12125.34.03%
16-13142.18.10%
15-14160.512.63%
14-15178.716.80%
13-16198.317.90%
12-17217.915.62%
11-18236.811.56%
10-19256.26.40%
9-20273.52.98%
8-21289.40.80%
7-22300.10.37%
6-23313.80.11%
5-24321.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Western Carolina (210.2)SCH66-56W100%0.0
11-17Mississippi Valley St. (347.9)SWACH89-68W100%0.0
11-22Utah St. (151.4)MWCH71-63W100%0.0
11-28Saint Louis (170.3)A10N0-051%0.2
12-6Tulane (232.8)AmerA0-048%-0.5
12-13Oregon St. (210.6)P12A0-035%-4.6
12-17Arkansas St. (278.4)SBH0-081%10.3
12-20USC Upstate (243.2)ASunN0-064%4.3
12-23Jacksonville (324.1)ASunH0-091%15.9
12-30McNeese St. (253.3)SlndH0-078%9.3
1-2Florida St. (165.5)ACCH0-054%1.1
1-7Tennessee (153.1)SECH0-053%0.8
1-10Florida (40.2)SECA0-08%-16.7
1-13Texas A&M (50.9)SECA0-011%-14.6
1-17Vanderbilt (124.1)SECH0-046%-1.3
1-21Auburn (179.6)SECA0-039%-3.3
1-24Georgia (76.4)SECH0-035%-4.6
1-28Mississippi (101.9)SECA0-021%-9.6
1-31LSU (94.1)SECH0-040%-3.1
2-3Tennessee (153.1)SECA0-030%-6.4
2-7Arkansas (23.2)SECA0-07%-18.1
2-10Alabama (69.6)SECH0-036%-4.4
2-14Missouri (159.3)SECA0-033%-5.3
2-19Mississippi (101.9)SECH0-042%-2.4
2-21Arkansas (23.2)SECH0-018%-10.9
2-25Kentucky (3.5)SECH0-06%-18.9
2-28South Carolina (92.0)SECA0-017%-11.5
3-4Vanderbilt (124.1)SECA0-024%-8.5
3-7Missouri (159.3)SECH0-056%1.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mississippi St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mississippi St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mississippi St.SEC30.0026.15100.0041.1330.00-4.64
ArkansasSEC0.004.12100.0079.210.002.41
VanderbiltSEC0.004.12100.0052.960.000.24
TennesseeSEC0.004.0850.0042.980.00-0.57
MississippiSEC0.004.0675.0051.820.000.15
MissouriSEC0.004.0540.0035.04-0.00-1.21
FloridaSEC0.002.4850.0063.960.000.69
LSUSEC0.002.4660.0055.860.000.29
AlabamaSEC1.672.4280.0058.231.000.40
South CarolinaSEC0.002.4250.0050.400.000.02
AuburnSEC0.002.4260.0036.740.00-0.64
GeorgiaSEC0.002.4260.0056.680.000.32
KentuckySEC0.002.39100.0088.900.001.86
Texas A&MSEC0.002.3975.0067.540.000.84
JacksonvilleASun0.001.820.0026.18-0.00-0.87
Western CarolinaSC16.671.8150.0050.170.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.001.7966.6751.790.000.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC16.671.780.0016.19-16.67-1.21
Saint LouisA100.001.7875.0046.260.00-0.13
Oregon St.P120.001.7850.0041.970.00-0.29
Florida St.ACC0.001.7540.0038.46-0.00-0.40
TulaneAmer1.671.7566.6739.430.56-0.37
McNeese St.Slnd0.001.750.0047.29-0.00-0.10
Arkansas St.SB0.001.720.0035.40-0.00-0.50
Utah St.MWC16.671.7275.0057.058.330.24
LipscombASun0.000.240.0045.69-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.2140.0052.52-0.000.01
DaytonA100.000.2075.0071.150.000.09
ClemsonACC0.000.2060.0050.770.000.00
MercerSC0.000.1833.3354.15-0.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.180.0040.80-0.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1725.0044.18-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.150.0048.64-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.150.0030.90-0.00-0.06
BaylorB120.000.15100.0070.110.000.06
Georgia TechACC0.000.15100.0049.260.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.150.0043.61-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.1583.3368.600.000.05
South FloridaAmer0.000.1575.0055.330.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.140.0035.41-0.00-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.1466.6751.600.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.1475.0062.480.000.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1380.0071.650.000.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1333.3330.11-0.00-0.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1325.0039.50-0.00-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1225.0051.72-0.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.120.0027.68-0.00-0.06
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1250.0027.510.00-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1266.6758.830.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.120.0025.37-0.00-0.06
VCUA100.000.1280.0073.080.000.06
TCUB121.670.12100.0061.121.670.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.12100.0065.430.000.04
Kansas St.B120.000.1250.0046.630.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1250.0036.120.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.1266.6740.010.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1220.0043.55-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.12100.0075.690.000.06
Arizona St.P120.000.1260.0053.110.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.12100.0061.400.000.03
OregonP120.000.1260.0063.060.000.03
UCLAP120.000.1280.0063.410.000.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1266.6753.550.000.01
XavierBE0.000.11100.0077.810.000.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.110.0062.99-0.000.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.100.0022.25-0.00-0.06
LamarSlnd0.000.1025.0036.41-0.00-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1020.0034.64-0.00-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.100.0036.91-0.00-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0933.3350.63-0.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0950.0068.710.000.03
Georgia St.SB1.670.0960.0067.690.330.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0933.3357.92-0.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC1.670.0933.3339.69-0.56-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0950.0065.310.000.03
SamfordSC0.000.0933.3335.00-0.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0920.0042.29-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0960.0051.520.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0925.0047.86-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0975.0069.010.000.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0925.0048.11-0.00-0.00
USCP120.000.0950.0028.760.00-0.04
WashingtonP120.000.09100.0055.210.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0980.0070.280.000.04
ColoradoP120.000.0975.0060.100.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0966.6760.360.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0960.0055.640.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0960.0055.460.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.090.0028.78-0.00-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.090.0020.69-0.00-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0940.0038.45-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0950.0073.640.000.04
MassachusettsA100.000.0983.3366.600.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.09100.0079.800.000.05
SMUAmer0.000.0950.0065.300.000.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0975.0051.040.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0820.0034.26-0.00-0.03
North TexasCUSA1.670.0875.0038.820.83-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.070.0031.85-0.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0740.0060.24-0.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.42-0.00-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6756.860.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0666.6750.220.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0071.480.000.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0051.010.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.18-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0666.6746.630.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0038.94-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0650.0044.930.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0633.3345.47-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0680.0062.960.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0061.080.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0054.340.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0023.00-0.00-0.03
FurmanSC0.000.0625.0027.83-0.00-0.03
George MasonA100.000.0620.0021.73-0.00-0.03
NevadaMWC0.000.0625.0043.39-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.060.0023.29-0.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0060.350.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0650.0024.520.00-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.0019.26-0.00-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0633.3354.73-0.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0660.0050.320.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0625.0052.61-0.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0028.63-0.00-0.03
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0051.700.000.00
VMISC0.000.0625.0036.44-0.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.000.0633.3329.54-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.0680.0077.430.000.03
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0069.580.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0057.50-0.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0084.900.000.04
KansasB120.000.0666.6759.280.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0640.0033.60-0.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky1.670.0625.0052.85-0.830.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0032.51-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0033.69-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0616.6731.72-0.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0030.92-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0060.970.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0640.0039.53-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0065.110.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0620.0050.03-0.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0675.0064.910.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0042.16-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0675.0055.290.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0625.0041.79-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0640.0053.46-0.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0666.6750.870.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0675.0045.520.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0625.0039.67-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0680.0079.380.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0079.150.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0675.0067.420.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0660.0057.880.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0066.690.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0660.0036.000.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0030.94-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0054.940.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0024.09-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0052.660.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0068.13-0.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0325.0033.19-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0042.970.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0316.6745.77-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.03100.0071.860.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0031.47-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0360.0068.220.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0366.6762.950.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0325.0031.71-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0333.3330.18-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6741.320.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0066.190.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.0350.0067.000.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0320.0038.42-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0380.0070.250.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0360.0067.390.000.01
Chicago St.WAC1.670.030.0018.95-1.67-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0325.0049.12-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0068.200.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0342.8640.94-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0366.6761.870.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6726.420.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0325.0035.38-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.030.0026.01-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0375.0069.280.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0061.350.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0088.520.000.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.030.0024.87-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC1.670.0350.0064.230.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0375.0043.690.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.03100.0056.620.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0350.0040.810.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0350.0055.290.000.00
OaklandHorz1.670.0316.6726.44-1.11-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.03100.0051.720.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0350.0055.700.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3330.44-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0064.050.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0039.490.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0383.3384.530.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0064.150.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0034.53-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0340.0047.86-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0052.090.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0058.520.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0380.0070.970.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0350.0065.760.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0350.0032.470.00-0.01
UC DavisBW1.670.03100.0053.381.670.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0056.00-0.000.00
UtahP120.000.0375.0073.450.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0350.0065.840.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0375.0056.120.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0380.0051.800.000.00
IndianaB101.670.0380.0057.111.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6749.610.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0066.35-0.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0047.220.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0383.3339.590.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0380.0057.990.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3353.30-0.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0350.0040.550.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.08-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0325.0053.31-0.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0064.180.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0375.0064.980.000.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.600.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0057.480.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0340.0046.02-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0048.57-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0020.63-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0375.0053.300.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0380.0066.690.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0383.3369.220.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0380.0074.520.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0380.0068.140.000.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0080.270.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0325.0040.45-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0073.600.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0069.720.000.01