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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Mississippi St.

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:216.0
Current RPI:216
Expected SOS:109
Current SOS:109
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:280
Expected OOC SOS:309



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19216.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Western Carolina (220.0)SCH66-56W100%0.0
11-17Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACH89-68W100%0.0
11-22Utah St. (143.0)MWCH71-63W100%0.0
11-28Saint Louis (272.0)A10N50-75W100%0.0
11-29TCU (131.0)B12N52-61L0%0.0
12-6Tulane (214.0)AmerA59-54L0%0.0
12-13Oregon St. (133.0)P12A59-49L0%0.0
12-17Arkansas St. (277.0)SBH55-69L0%0.0
12-20USC Upstate (208.0)ASunN51-53L0%0.0
12-23Jacksonville (338.0)ASunH70-47W100%0.0
12-30McNeese St. (279.0)SlndH47-66L0%0.0
1-2Florida St. (110.0)ACCH62-55W100%0.0
1-7Tennessee (96.0)SECH47-61L0%0.0
1-10Florida (72.0)SECA72-47L0%0.0
1-13Texas A&M (67.0)SECA74-70L0%0.0
1-17Vanderbilt (104.0)SECH57-54W100%0.0
1-21Auburn (129.0)SECA71-78W100%0.0
1-24Georgia (38.0)SECH66-72L0%0.0
1-28Mississippi (60.0)SECA79-73L0%0.0
1-31LSU (57.0)SECH73-67W100%0.0
2-3Tennessee (96.0)SECA66-71W100%0.0
2-7Arkansas (19.0)SECA61-41L0%0.0
2-10Alabama (85.0)SECH51-55L0%0.0
2-14Missouri (218.0)SECA74-77W100%0.0
2-19Mississippi (60.0)SECH65-71L0%0.0
2-21Arkansas (19.0)SECH61-65L0%0.0
2-25Kentucky (1.0)SECH56-74L0%0.0
2-28South Carolina (91.0)SECA81-68L0%0.0
3-4Vanderbilt (104.0)SECA66-56L0%0.0
3-7Missouri (218.0)SECH52-43W100%0.0
3-11Auburn (129.0)SECN68-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mississippi St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mississippi St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mississippi St.SEC26.1026.1034.4834.48-8.10-8.10
ArkansasSEC3.933.9375.0075.001.971.97
AuburnSEC3.913.9140.6240.62-0.73-0.73
TennesseeSEC3.903.9050.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC3.883.8858.6258.620.670.67
MississippiSEC3.823.8260.0060.000.760.76
MissouriSEC3.823.8227.5927.59-1.71-1.71
South CarolinaSEC2.362.3648.3948.39-0.08-0.08
FloridaSEC2.342.3446.8846.88-0.15-0.15
LSUSEC2.342.3470.9770.970.980.98
KentuckySEC2.342.34100.00100.002.342.34
GeorgiaSEC2.332.3364.5264.520.680.68
AlabamaSEC2.292.2953.3353.330.150.15
Texas A&MSEC2.282.2863.3363.330.610.61
TCUB121.721.7253.1253.120.110.11
JacksonvilleASun1.691.6925.0025.00-0.85-0.85
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.691.6919.3519.35-1.04-1.04
Western CarolinaSC1.691.6944.8344.83-0.17-0.17
Oregon St.P121.691.6951.7251.720.060.06
USC UpstateASun1.671.6762.0762.070.400.40
Saint LouisA101.661.6633.3333.33-0.55-0.55
McNeese St.Slnd1.661.6638.4638.46-0.38-0.38
TulaneAmer1.641.6444.8344.83-0.17-0.17
Florida St.ACC1.641.6453.1253.120.100.10
Arkansas St.SB1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
Utah St.MWC1.611.6158.6258.620.280.28
ClemsonACC0.220.2251.6151.610.010.01
LipscombASun0.210.2139.2939.29-0.05-0.05
North FloridaASun0.210.2164.5264.520.060.06
BaylorB120.180.1871.8871.880.080.08
DaytonA100.180.1875.7675.760.090.09
Kansas St.B120.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
Texas SouthernSWAC0.170.1764.7164.710.050.05
KansasB120.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.1665.5265.520.050.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.160.1655.5655.560.020.02
MercerSC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1426.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
StetsonASun0.130.1321.4321.43-0.08-0.08
TroySB0.130.1329.6329.63-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Georgia TechACC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1310.3410.34-0.10-0.10
ColoradoP120.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1262.9662.960.030.03
Texas TechB120.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.110.1130.7730.77-0.04-0.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.110.1191.1891.180.090.09
Arizona St.P120.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
OregonP120.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
UCLAP120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
VCUA100.100.1074.2974.290.050.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1059.2659.260.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.100.000.00-0.10-0.10
TulsaAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
OklahomaB120.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.096.906.90-0.08-0.08
LamarSlnd0.090.0942.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0872.4172.410.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
USCP120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
WoffordSC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
WyomingMWC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
FurmanSC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
YaleIvy0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
MassachusettsA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.070.0781.2581.250.050.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
TexasB120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UtahP120.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01