live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 20, 2017.


Mississippi St.

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:119.1
Current RPI:117
Expected SOS:96
Current SOS:149
Current Record:12-5
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:3-2
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:158
Expected OOC SOS:282



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-648.00.02%
23-741.80.05%
22-855.00.58%
21-967.72.56%
20-1080.57.83%
19-1195.215.12%
18-12110.222.27%
17-13125.822.86%
16-14141.917.41%
15-15157.58.61%
14-16173.72.24%
13-17191.10.42%
12-18212.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Norfolk St. (311.5)MEACH78-74W100%0.0
11-17UCF (72.5)AmerN86-61L0%0.0
11-18Boise St. (77.1)MWCN68-80W100%0.0
11-20UTEP (324.5)CUSAN61-54W100%0.0
11-25Lehigh (100.0)PatH73-87L0%0.0
11-28Northwestern St. (301.1)SlndH65-59W100%0.0
12-1Oregon St. (282.3)P12H74-57W100%0.0
12-4Georgia St. (129.8)SBH82-60W100%0.0
12-14East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCH65-67L0%0.0
12-19Southern Miss (331.1)CUSAN44-86W100%0.0
12-22Morehead St. (209.5)OVCH85-76W100%0.0
12-29UMKC (216.4)WACH77-54W100%0.0
1-3Alabama (87.3)SECH58-68L0%0.0
1-7LSU (151.7)SECA78-95W100%0.0
1-10Arkansas (44.2)SECA78-84W100%0.0
1-14Texas A&M (108.1)SECH67-59W100%0.0
1-17Kentucky (5.3)SECH81-88L0%0.0
1-21Tennessee (80.9)SECA0-031%-5.5
1-25Missouri (255.5)SECH0-079%9.2
1-28Alabama (87.3)SECA0-032%-5.3
1-31Mississippi (84.4)SECA0-039%-3.1
2-4Tennessee (80.9)SECH0-053%0.8
2-7Auburn (103.7)SECA0-040%-2.7
2-11South Carolina (25.0)SECH0-035%-4.2
2-14Georgia (47.1)SECA0-024%-7.8
2-18Florida (11.2)SECH0-024%-8.0
2-21Mississippi (84.4)SECH0-061%3.1
2-25Vanderbilt (92.6)SECA0-034%-4.7
2-28South Carolina (25.0)SECA0-017%-10.4
3-4LSU (151.7)SECH0-078%8.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mississippi St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mississippi St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mississippi St.SEC26.5226.1360.2453.095.431.62
TennesseeSEC0.253.9647.0647.73-0.01-0.18
MississippiSEC0.083.9461.1155.390.020.42
LSUSEC3.213.9456.2540.750.40-0.73
South CarolinaSEC0.093.9482.3575.090.061.97
AlabamaSEC3.033.9162.5055.810.760.45
AuburnSEC0.272.3866.6755.250.090.25
MissouriSEC0.382.3629.4126.12-0.16-1.13
Texas A&MSEC3.312.3356.2552.770.410.13
VanderbiltSEC0.352.3344.4441.82-0.04-0.38
GeorgiaSEC0.002.3264.7157.920.000.37
ArkansasSEC3.112.3082.3572.632.011.04
KentuckySEC3.112.3088.2487.092.381.70
FloridaSEC0.172.3077.7874.880.091.14
Southern MissCUSA3.121.7826.6723.14-1.46-0.96
UTEPCUSA3.161.7620.0024.91-1.89-0.88
East Tennessee St.SC3.031.7568.7572.761.140.80
Northwestern St.Slnd3.121.7527.2735.45-1.42-0.51
Morehead St.OVC3.031.7037.5043.08-0.76-0.23
Georgia St.SB2.941.6957.1458.070.420.27
Norfolk St.MEAC2.941.6920.0037.10-1.76-0.44
Boise St.MWC2.941.6766.6765.460.980.52
LehighPat2.941.6750.0062.070.000.40
Oregon St.P122.941.6717.6514.13-1.90-1.20
UCFAmer2.941.6776.4765.881.560.53
UMKCWAC2.941.6741.1841.40-0.52-0.29
OregonP120.260.2088.8983.420.200.13
Louisiana TechCUSA0.180.1764.7169.700.050.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1783.3383.150.070.11
MemphisAmer0.000.1673.6867.200.000.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.260.1540.0051.38-0.050.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.190.1531.5832.58-0.07-0.05
LipscombASun0.170.1544.4450.48-0.020.00
UTSACUSA0.270.1443.7538.29-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.280.1461.1162.280.060.04
South AlabamaSB0.190.1443.7541.41-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.090.1411.7621.45-0.07-0.08
Coastal CarolinaSB0.090.1443.7543.71-0.01-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.250.1457.8957.540.040.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1475.0074.870.000.07
ClemsonACC0.090.1461.1159.230.020.03
HoustonAmer0.250.1468.4268.060.090.05
North FloridaASun0.170.1423.5331.23-0.09-0.05
RiceCUSA0.120.1258.8264.790.020.04
PurdueB100.280.1278.9576.890.160.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.260.1225.0031.85-0.13-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1231.5833.34-0.00-0.04
BucknellPat0.180.1270.0071.890.070.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.270.1288.2484.520.200.08
BelmontOVC0.090.1275.0074.470.040.06
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1228.5731.47-0.00-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.170.1264.7165.930.050.04
Holy CrossPat0.090.1250.0051.660.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.080.1150.0055.770.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.1114.2929.27-0.06-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.180.1160.0072.810.040.05
CharlotteCUSA0.170.1143.7543.70-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.260.1173.6869.690.120.04
WoffordSC0.090.1131.2540.50-0.03-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.170.1152.9451.300.010.00
MassachusettsA100.180.1163.1660.390.050.02
MercerSC0.090.1133.3343.06-0.03-0.02
DaytonA100.170.1176.4776.940.090.06
South FloridaAmer0.080.1135.2928.97-0.02-0.05
TexasB120.170.1138.8935.38-0.04-0.03
UCLAP120.250.1195.0089.690.220.09
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.1021.0528.89-0.05-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.1052.9455.050.010.01
LamarSlnd0.080.0946.6747.34-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.200.0940.0038.59-0.04-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.220.0925.0028.40-0.11-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.270.0944.4443.57-0.03-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0912.5024.37-0.06-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.090.0955.5660.070.010.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0958.8261.440.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.180.0957.8958.030.030.01
North TexasCUSA0.090.0925.0029.15-0.05-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.170.0912.5033.82-0.13-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.190.096.2511.88-0.17-0.07
AmericanPat0.170.0927.7830.73-0.08-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.170.0958.8254.690.030.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.0962.5062.710.020.02
NevadaMWC0.080.0984.2178.680.060.05
SeattleWAC0.160.0940.0037.08-0.03-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0920.0026.44-0.06-0.04
OklahomaB120.120.0947.0641.20-0.01-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0947.3745.06-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0961.1164.320.000.02
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0912.5013.05-0.07-0.06
TulaneAmer0.170.0922.2220.60-0.10-0.05
FurmanSC0.090.0952.9458.360.010.01
KansasB120.080.0894.4481.800.070.05
Wake ForestACC0.180.0861.1155.580.040.01
CreightonBE0.080.0894.4484.720.070.06
ArizonaP120.090.0889.4784.510.070.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0820.0030.55-0.05-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.0861.1147.020.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.170.0829.4130.28-0.07-0.03
TulsaAmer0.080.0858.8251.180.010.00
USCP120.170.0880.0071.930.100.04
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0835.2941.77-0.02-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.08100.0097.320.000.08
North CarolinaACC0.080.0884.2180.600.060.05
Seton HallBE0.000.0866.6758.230.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0877.7865.330.000.03
ValparaisoHorz0.170.0877.7877.270.090.04
Virginia TechACC0.090.0877.7862.530.050.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.0728.5733.61-0.05-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0626.6740.16-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0652.6352.920.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.180.0655.5656.000.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.210.0642.8650.49-0.030.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.170.0635.2935.14-0.05-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0631.5835.67-0.03-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.200.0662.5063.260.050.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0641.1837.57-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.090.0638.8942.65-0.02-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0650.0053.030.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0653.3361.620.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0616.6718.29-0.00-0.04
ColgatePat0.000.0621.0527.27-0.00-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.0662.5060.090.020.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0661.1163.070.000.02
LafayettePat0.000.0629.4123.71-0.00-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.090.0647.0646.22-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.090.0644.4446.61-0.01-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.180.0658.8264.380.030.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0646.6738.45-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.100.0647.0648.13-0.01-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0633.3333.28-0.03-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.090.0643.7543.98-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0640.0044.67-0.02-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0652.9450.600.010.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0664.7157.710.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0641.1846.18-0.02-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.170.0631.5833.41-0.06-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.180.0631.2536.88-0.07-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.170.0622.2227.15-0.09-0.03
ButlerBE0.090.0684.2178.340.060.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.180.0637.5044.22-0.04-0.01
SMUAmer0.090.0680.0077.810.060.03
St. Francis PANEC0.170.0635.2944.13-0.05-0.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0683.3380.700.050.04
XavierBE0.090.0672.2267.680.040.02
SamfordSC0.000.0664.7160.050.000.01
The CitadelSC0.090.0633.3328.99-0.03-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.180.0652.6360.240.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0670.5964.080.040.02
VMISC0.090.0613.3315.24-0.06-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0623.5321.80-0.05-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.090.0689.4779.540.070.03
Little RockSB0.000.0656.2551.110.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.170.0640.0050.05-0.030.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0668.7570.270.030.02
Ball St.MAC0.090.0664.7156.100.030.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0668.4264.450.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0688.8986.560.000.04
ColoradoP120.000.0650.0052.890.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0647.3741.50-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0652.6348.070.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0677.7862.260.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0637.5034.55-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0663.1658.150.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0675.0074.450.000.03
Saint LouisA100.090.0627.7824.32-0.04-0.03
StanfordP120.080.0655.5648.060.01-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0657.8952.520.000.00
TempleAmer0.080.0650.0053.120.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0650.0066.300.000.02
UtahP120.000.0668.7567.640.000.02
VCUA100.090.0673.6870.630.040.02
VermontAE0.000.0675.0077.360.000.03
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0678.9582.980.050.04
WisconsinB100.000.0683.3381.320.000.03
Arizona St.P120.080.0547.3744.51-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0566.6761.530.000.01
BaylorB120.000.0594.1280.880.000.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0536.8433.55-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.080.0578.9570.150.050.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0550.0058.290.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0522.2229.94-0.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0547.0646.29-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0328.5734.62-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0328.5741.77-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.120.0323.0830.70-0.07-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0350.0052.970.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.0322.2225.60-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0317.6529.60-0.06-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0358.8260.260.020.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0312.5019.98-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0312.5028.49-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0361.1159.670.020.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0337.5044.55-0.02-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0326.3227.72-0.04-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0014.44-0.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.090.0363.1651.610.020.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0340.0040.81-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0322.2223.82-0.05-0.02
DrakeMVC0.080.0329.4127.72-0.03-0.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0352.9450.950.000.00
HawaiiBW0.090.0343.7546.21-0.01-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0312.5022.04-0.07-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0331.2545.45-0.03-0.00
La SalleA100.090.0368.7564.060.030.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0347.0644.32-0.01-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0352.6353.100.000.00
NJITASun0.100.0338.8942.49-0.02-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.090.0360.0066.110.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0335.0039.76-0.03-0.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0355.0054.820.010.00
Stony BrookAE0.090.0355.5654.430.010.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0353.3345.980.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.090.0347.3743.68-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.100.0361.1156.230.020.00
YaleIvy0.090.0360.0065.720.020.01
DetroitHorz0.090.0316.6723.07-0.06-0.02
FordhamA100.090.0338.8935.26-0.02-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0326.3228.81-0.04-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0316.6720.43-0.06-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0388.8986.040.070.02
DavidsonA100.000.0352.9453.560.000.00
DenverSum0.090.0357.8955.950.010.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0341.1849.23-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0361.1153.360.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.080.0347.0648.10-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0326.3236.97-0.04-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0372.2274.630.000.01
PennIvy0.080.0342.8647.98-0.01-0.00
PortlandWCC0.080.0347.0640.46-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0317.6535.33-0.05-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0361.1169.300.000.01
VillanovaBE0.080.0394.7489.270.070.02
WashingtonP120.080.0350.0043.390.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.080.0347.0633.39-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0347.3734.50-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0360.0061.270.020.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0326.3232.63-0.04-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0377.7873.860.000.01
DuquesneA100.080.0347.3741.47-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0364.7169.850.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.080.0364.7166.910.020.01
High PointBSth0.000.0337.5042.27-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.080.0342.1143.49-0.01-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0364.7161.830.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.080.0384.2179.280.060.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0370.5960.550.000.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0363.1657.700.020.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0364.7162.600.020.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0352.9450.580.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0347.3745.83-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0352.6347.720.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6762.870.000.01
TCUB120.000.0376.4763.630.000.01