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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Maryland Eastern Shore

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:195.0
Current RPI:195
Expected SOS:318
Current SOS:318
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:11-6
Expected Conf Record:11-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-7
Current OOC Record:7-8
Expected OOC Record:7-8
Expected OOC RPI:122
Expected OOC SOS:156



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-14195.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland Eastern Shore.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCA71-46L0%0.0
11-17Villanova (3.0)BEA81-44L0%0.0
11-19Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECA41-53W100%0.0
11-20VCU (15.0)A10A106-66L0%0.0
11-22St. Francis PA (179.0)NECA57-53L0%0.0
11-24Detroit (205.0)HorzN69-55L0%0.0
11-25Bucknell (136.0)PatN58-55L0%0.0
11-29Fordham (238.0)A10A66-72W100%0.0
12-2UMBC (346.0)AEH65-52W100%0.0
12-5North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACH63-68L0%0.0
12-8North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH69-58W100%0.0
12-13Navy (252.0)PatH53-46W100%0.0
12-19Old Dominion (46.0)CUSAA60-43L0%0.0
12-22St. Bonaventure (121.0)A10A80-82W100%0.0
12-28Duquesne (222.0)A10A69-78W100%0.0
12-30Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCA60-63W100%0.0
1-7NJIT (159.0)indA69-60L0%0.0
1-12Morgan St. (337.0)MEACA53-78W100%0.0
1-17Savannah St. (331.0)MEACH87-57W100%0.0
1-19South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACH72-73L0%0.0
1-24Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACA70-74W100%0.0
1-26Florida A&M (350.0)MEACA65-72W100%0.0
1-31Coppin St. (311.0)MEACH92-82W100%0.0
2-2Howard (255.0)MEACA83-74L0%0.0
2-7Hampton (251.0)MEACA64-61L0%0.0
2-9Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACA64-82W100%0.0
2-14Delaware St. (204.0)MEACH85-91L0%0.0
2-16Howard (255.0)MEACH71-60W100%0.0
2-21South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACA56-68W100%0.0
2-28Delaware St. (204.0)MEACA65-69W100%0.0
3-5Morgan St. (337.0)MEACH89-76W100%0.0
3-12Hampton (251.0)MEACN76-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland Eastern Shore's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland Eastern Shore's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland Eastern Shore.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC26.0726.0762.0362.036.276.27
HamptonMEAC3.843.8445.1645.16-0.37-0.37
Delaware St.MEAC3.823.8248.3948.39-0.12-0.12
HowardMEAC3.763.7644.4444.44-0.42-0.42
South Carolina St.MEAC3.693.6927.5927.59-1.65-1.65
Morgan St.MEAC3.683.6824.1424.14-1.90-1.90
Norfolk St.MEAC2.272.2760.0060.000.450.45
Coppin St.MEAC2.202.2024.1424.14-1.14-1.14
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.152.1531.0331.03-0.82-0.82
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.152.1524.1424.14-1.11-1.11
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.152.1575.0075.001.071.07
Savannah St.MEAC2.152.1525.0025.00-1.07-1.07
Florida A&MMEAC2.082.087.147.14-1.78-1.78
NJITind1.811.8154.1754.170.150.15
DuquesneA101.771.7737.9337.93-0.43-0.43
FordhamA101.761.7631.0331.03-0.67-0.67
St. Francis PANEC1.721.7248.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.721.7251.7251.720.060.06
VCUA101.711.7173.5373.530.810.81
St. BonaventureA101.661.6660.0060.000.330.33
BucknellPat1.661.6654.8454.840.160.16
UMBCAE1.651.6513.7913.79-1.19-1.19
VillanovaBE1.641.6493.9493.941.441.44
NavyPat1.641.6440.0040.00-0.33-0.33
Old DominionCUSA1.641.6476.6776.670.870.87
Virginia TechACC1.611.6131.2531.25-0.60-0.60
Tennessee MartinOVC1.591.5959.2659.260.290.29
DetroitHorz1.561.5640.0040.00-0.31-0.31
RichmondA100.250.2559.3859.380.050.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.230.2366.6766.670.080.08
DaytonA100.220.2275.7675.760.120.12
George WashingtonA100.200.2063.6463.640.050.05
Saint LouisA100.200.2032.2632.26-0.07-0.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.200.2051.5251.520.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.200.2070.0070.000.080.08
Central ConnecticutNEC0.190.1916.1316.13-0.13-0.13
MarquetteBE0.180.1840.6240.62-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
George MasonA100.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
DavidsonA100.170.1776.6776.670.090.09
UMass LowellAE0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
AlbanyAE0.170.1775.0075.000.080.08
Holy CrossPat0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
TowsonCAA0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
Loyola MDPat0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Penn St.B100.150.1552.9452.940.010.01
La SalleA100.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
VirginiaACC0.150.1590.6290.620.120.12
Wake ForestACC0.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
MichiganB100.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.130.1316.6716.67-0.09-0.09
USC UpstateASun0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
ArmyPat0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1210.3410.34-0.10-0.10
OregonP120.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
SyracuseACC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
MaineAE0.110.1110.0010.00-0.09-0.09
South AlabamaSB0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.100.1062.0762.070.030.03
St. John'sBE0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Notre DameACC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
HoustonAmer0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1090.9190.910.080.08
IllinoisB100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
DelawareCAA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.100.1032.1432.14-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
IUPUISum0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
SienaMAAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
PittsburghACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
The CitadelSC0.070.0729.6329.63-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
IowaB100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
CreightonBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
ToledoMAC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00