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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Maryland Eastern Shore

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:334.5
Current RPI:307
Expected SOS:311
Current SOS:180
Current Record:3-16
Expected Record:6-23
Current Conf Record:1-5
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-14
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:260
Expected OOC SOS:75



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-18266.30.07%
10-19285.90.65%
9-20302.73.15%
8-21317.910.58%
7-22329.322.03%
6-23337.628.92%
5-24343.023.23%
4-25346.19.74%
3-26348.11.62%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland Eastern Shore.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Maryland (43.3)B10A96-43L0%0.0
11-18Georgetown (143.2)BEA83-57L0%0.0
11-20St. Bonaventure (50.3)A10A96-48L0%0.0
11-24Jackson St. (292.8)SWACN63-66W100%0.0
11-25Tennessee Tech (171.8)OVCN60-90L0%0.0
11-27Old Dominion (73.3)CUSAA83-44L0%0.0
12-2American (307.4)PatH74-70W100%0.0
12-4Duquesne (213.1)A10A86-61L0%0.0
12-8Liberty (224.1)BSthA71-49L0%0.0
12-10Virginia Tech (83.2)ACCA93-40L0%0.0
12-15Creighton (29.1)BEA87-36L0%0.0
12-20Iowa St. (106.2)B12A55-49L0%0.0
12-22Drake (159.7)MVCA81-57L0%0.0
1-3Morgan St. (312.1)MEACA85-82L0%0.0
1-6Hampton (287.5)MEACH92-83W100%0.0
1-8Bethune Cookman (287.3)MEACH84-89L0%0.0
1-13Savannah St. (246.7)MEACA87-59L0%0.0
1-15South Carolina St. (325.8)MEACA66-62L0%0.0
1-20North Carolina A&T (240.7)MEACH64-66L0%0.0
1-22North Carolina Central (268.1)MEACH0-024%-8.0
1-27Howard (331.0)MEACH0-035%-4.2
1-29Coppin St. (342.3)MEACA0-035%-4.2
2-5Florida A&M (340.4)MEACH0-055%1.4
2-10Bethune Cookman (287.3)MEACA0-017%-10.6
2-12Howard (331.0)MEACA0-017%-10.6
2-17North Carolina Central (268.1)MEACA0-010%-14.4
2-19North Carolina A&T (240.7)MEACA0-014%-12.1
2-24Norfolk St. (292.5)MEACH0-033%-5.0
2-26Delaware St. (350.2)MEACH0-067%4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland Eastern Shore's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland Eastern Shore's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland Eastern Shore.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC26.3626.1015.9420.95-17.96-15.16
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.914.1152.9454.020.170.33
HowardMEAC0.444.0810.5323.86-0.34-2.13
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.084.0143.7551.76-0.010.14
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.703.9647.0649.55-0.16-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.372.390.008.29-0.37-1.99
Coppin St.MEAC0.292.369.5216.39-0.24-1.59
Florida A&MMEAC0.152.3610.0018.78-0.12-1.47
Norfolk St.MEAC0.222.3518.7535.63-0.13-0.68
Savannah St.MEAC2.802.3023.5332.16-1.48-0.82
South Carolina St.MEAC2.702.3023.5329.23-1.43-0.95
Morgan St.MEAC2.782.2925.0037.30-1.39-0.58
HamptonMEAC2.702.2321.4343.37-1.55-0.30
GeorgetownBE2.771.9366.6752.450.920.09
DuquesneA102.701.8768.4256.711.000.25
St. BonaventureA102.771.8464.7167.620.810.65
AmericanPat2.631.7827.7829.14-1.17-0.74
CreightonBE2.701.7873.6869.681.280.70
LibertyBSth2.631.7850.0055.730.000.20
Virginia TechACC2.701.7866.6756.370.900.23
MarylandB102.781.7868.4264.121.020.50
Jackson St.SWAC2.771.7841.1844.98-0.49-0.18
Old DominionCUSA2.631.7577.7875.951.460.91
DrakeMVC2.631.7252.6347.310.14-0.09
Iowa St.B122.631.7258.8245.440.46-0.16
Tennessee TechOVC2.631.7255.5651.520.290.05
George WashingtonA100.230.2145.0043.49-0.02-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.290.1829.4127.74-0.12-0.08
JacksonvilleASun0.290.1833.3333.80-0.10-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.280.1752.6350.250.010.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1642.1143.500.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.1570.0071.230.030.07
George MasonA100.140.1545.0041.35-0.01-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.070.1527.7840.97-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.150.1535.0026.14-0.05-0.07
XavierBE0.150.1585.7180.080.110.09
RadfordBSth0.220.1561.1160.790.050.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.1570.0068.220.030.05
West VirginiaB120.150.1584.2178.170.100.08
DePaulBE0.070.1542.1134.32-0.01-0.05
MarquetteBE0.140.1568.4260.530.050.03
ButlerBE0.200.1566.6763.070.070.04
Georgia TechACC0.070.1452.6343.120.00-0.02
DaytonA100.280.1447.3750.95-0.010.00
Saint LouisA100.140.1447.3746.91-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.230.1241.1843.41-0.04-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.070.1252.6347.360.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.1268.4263.640.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.220.1216.6724.29-0.15-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.220.1242.1144.97-0.03-0.01
NavyPat0.150.1260.0055.160.030.01
Boston UniversityPat0.140.1250.0053.160.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.1236.8444.12-0.04-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1235.2940.48-0.04-0.02
IndianaB100.070.1257.8950.680.010.00
North TexasCUSA0.210.1244.4446.64-0.02-0.01
VirginiaACC0.230.1294.4485.440.200.08
East CarolinaAmer0.070.1242.1132.48-0.01-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.210.1212.5025.47-0.16-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.1237.5037.68-0.04-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.270.1225.0028.02-0.14-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.130.1270.0060.460.050.02
Seton HallBE0.200.1275.0067.890.100.04
St. John'sBE0.200.1247.3742.18-0.01-0.02
VillanovaBE0.070.1294.7490.310.060.09
BaylorB120.210.1261.1156.090.050.01
TCUB120.220.1273.6865.590.100.04
RichmondA100.140.1231.5834.35-0.05-0.04
SyracuseACC0.280.1268.4261.270.100.03
IowaB100.270.1147.6244.03-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.140.1131.5829.06-0.05-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0942.1145.970.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0926.3231.520.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.070.0947.3744.27-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.160.0945.0045.02-0.02-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.0920.0028.72-0.09-0.04
WinthropBSth0.150.0946.6758.78-0.010.02
William & MaryCAA0.230.0964.7159.980.070.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.0931.5832.72-0.05-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.150.0970.0068.420.060.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.0910.5316.75-0.11-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.0916.6724.91-0.09-0.04
PennIvy0.000.0964.7162.780.000.02
MercerSC0.150.0944.4454.89-0.020.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0977.7871.650.000.04
BucknellPat0.140.0961.9068.010.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.070.0980.9583.260.040.06
UTEPCUSA0.000.0933.3334.110.00-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.210.0944.4441.15-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0952.3848.520.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.070.0984.2173.210.050.04
LamarSlnd0.140.0950.0054.850.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.090.0010.65-0.07-0.07
Morehead St.OVC0.210.0923.5328.70-0.11-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.070.0970.5975.930.030.05
StetsonASun0.140.0933.3336.92-0.05-0.02
The CitadelSC0.140.0918.7518.40-0.09-0.06
WashingtonP120.140.0970.0061.440.060.02
Kansas St.B120.140.0973.6862.720.070.02
Michigan St.B100.140.0985.0083.180.100.06
NebraskaB100.070.0966.6759.780.020.02
Texas TechB120.150.0978.9571.810.080.04
YaleIvy0.210.0941.1847.51-0.04-0.00
UMBCAE0.070.0958.8258.360.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.140.0944.4446.10-0.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.140.0947.0652.51-0.010.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0955.0050.370.010.00
PittsburghACC0.140.0940.0030.87-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.070.0958.8261.440.010.02
Penn St.B100.070.0961.9055.770.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0983.3381.410.050.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0950.0051.650.000.00
TexasB120.070.0963.1657.620.020.01
VCUA100.140.0960.0059.690.030.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0876.4769.020.000.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0628.5731.270.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.180.0665.0065.370.050.02
BinghamtonAE0.080.0644.4442.74-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0643.7545.340.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.080.0640.0047.86-0.02-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.080.0617.6517.23-0.05-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0650.0055.650.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.160.0633.3337.22-0.05-0.02
TowsonCAA0.150.0663.1666.000.040.02
Fort WayneSum0.080.0652.6351.700.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0658.8249.760.01-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0657.1453.220.010.00
Stony BrookAE0.070.0638.8946.68-0.01-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0630.0036.480.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0627.7831.120.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.070.0661.1160.530.020.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0644.4445.98-0.01-0.00
BelmontOVC0.070.0671.4374.650.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.070.0623.5328.21-0.04-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.140.0662.5058.700.040.01
ColgatePat0.070.0650.0051.040.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0677.7879.160.040.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0646.6746.980.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.140.0666.6768.500.050.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0668.7563.960.000.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.0626.3230.430.00-0.02
LafayettePat0.070.0622.2227.51-0.04-0.03
LehighPat0.070.0638.8944.75-0.02-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0622.2228.67-0.04-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0621.0539.47-0.04-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0621.0544.26-0.04-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0622.2227.330.00-0.03
Washington St.P120.070.0650.0042.180.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0657.1460.400.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0652.6355.290.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.140.0645.0048.56-0.01-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0636.8432.79-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.140.0665.0062.040.040.01
Western IllinoisSum0.140.0642.8635.25-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.070.0650.0046.260.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.070.0661.1158.750.020.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0668.4255.060.030.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0689.4785.520.060.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0668.4257.770.030.01
VMISC0.140.0625.0024.17-0.07-0.03
BradleyMVC0.070.0665.0057.870.020.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0623.5325.63-0.04-0.03
FIUCUSA0.070.0635.2935.57-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0647.3745.87-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.070.0684.2179.740.050.03
MichiganB100.070.0675.0070.270.030.02
MinnesotaB100.130.0663.6457.640.040.01
OklahomaB120.000.0677.7867.900.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0668.4254.090.030.00
PurdueB100.070.0690.4888.380.050.04
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0650.0051.360.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0668.4270.810.030.02
La SalleA100.070.0640.0042.72-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.070.0647.0648.44-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0657.8947.140.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.0689.4785.190.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.070.0677.7869.360.040.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0317.6519.33-0.05-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.090.0327.7838.13-0.04-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0347.3748.17-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0311.1115.30-0.07-0.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0389.4777.030.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.080.0366.6765.530.030.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0378.9572.990.040.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0344.4444.860.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.000.0322.2225.260.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0331.5830.00-0.03-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0363.1657.540.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0368.7567.640.030.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0345.0049.27-0.01-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0322.2228.59-0.04-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0366.6765.620.020.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0347.3743.040.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0329.4133.940.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0366.6765.360.020.01
LipscombASun0.070.0352.9459.360.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0383.3381.350.050.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0326.6729.04-0.03-0.01
MaineAE0.070.0310.5314.86-0.05-0.02
New HampshireAE0.070.0329.4138.15-0.03-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0352.9459.250.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0368.4263.980.030.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0366.6767.690.020.01
TroySB0.000.0335.2942.760.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.070.0368.4260.880.030.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0364.7164.540.020.01
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0378.9577.360.040.02
Boise St.MWC0.070.0378.9576.970.040.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.0372.2274.900.030.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0360.0060.340.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.030.003.12-0.07-0.03
ColoradoP120.070.0360.0053.730.010.00
DrexelCAA0.070.0330.0030.99-0.03-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0338.8944.14-0.02-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0323.5332.62-0.03-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0325.0028.25-0.03-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0372.2274.700.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0345.0047.05-0.01-0.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0366.6763.200.020.01
North DakotaBSky0.070.0329.4134.76-0.03-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0363.1663.180.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0341.1839.13-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0380.9576.520.040.02
RiceCUSA0.070.0311.1117.69-0.05-0.02
SienaMAAC0.070.0330.0031.69-0.03-0.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0373.6872.360.030.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0372.2272.970.030.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0341.1838.460.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.070.0352.6351.730.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0372.2268.920.000.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0355.0053.290.010.00
UABCUSA0.000.0361.1164.130.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.070.0311.1117.96-0.05-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0360.0062.030.010.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0341.1839.650.00-0.01
VermontAE0.070.0373.6877.120.030.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0361.1156.830.010.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0320.0023.360.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.070.0333.3333.36-0.02-0.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0321.0525.98-0.04-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0373.6869.610.030.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0325.0027.940.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.035.8819.37-0.06-0.02
KentuckySEC0.070.0373.6867.950.030.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0372.2258.940.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0380.0075.050.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0344.4450.310.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0331.5835.150.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0363.1661.050.000.01
OregonP120.000.0365.0063.830.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0350.0048.740.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0333.3335.19-0.02-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0380.0078.860.000.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0373.6865.280.000.01