live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 26, 2017.


Maryland Eastern Shore

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:290.3
Current RPI:293
Expected SOS:318
Current SOS:311
Current Record:9-18
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:8-6
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-8
Current OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:253
Expected OOC SOS:50



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-18271.634.57%
10-19296.349.80%
9-20312.915.62%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland Eastern Shore.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11George Washington (121.4)A10A75-71L0%0.0
11-13UMBC (168.4)AEH73-77L0%0.0
11-15Boston College (210.8)ACCA73-57L0%0.0
11-20Wichita St. (38.2)MVCA116-79L0%0.0
11-23Colorado St. (72.3)MWCA76-65L0%0.0
11-27Louisiana Tech (119.3)CUSAA74-53L0%0.0
11-30Southeastern Louisiana (253.9)SlndA85-75L0%0.0
12-7Virginia Tech (43.7)ACCA75-59L0%0.0
12-10UCF (78.1)AmerA76-58L0%0.0
12-17Michigan (43.9)B10A98-49L0%0.0
12-19American (302.3)PatA61-58L0%0.0
12-21UTEP (243.3)CUSAA66-71W100%0.0
12-22Akron (53.3)MACN60-76L0%0.0
1-9North Carolina A&T (350.7)MEACA88-99W100%0.0
1-11North Carolina Central (192.6)MEACA69-52L0%0.0
1-14Howard (340.3)MEACH66-74L0%0.0
1-21Bethune Cookman (347.6)MEACA79-82W100%0.0
1-23Florida A&M (348.4)MEACA79-86W100%0.0
1-28South Carolina St. (280.2)MEACH92-69W100%0.0
1-30Savannah St. (311.9)MEACH82-87L0%0.0
2-1Hampton (299.3)MEACA66-65L0%0.0
2-4Coppin St. (329.3)MEACH78-57W100%0.0
2-11Norfolk St. (249.0)MEACA75-69L0%0.0
2-13Bethune Cookman (347.6)MEACH82-81W100%0.0
2-18North Carolina Central (192.6)MEACH69-82L0%0.0
2-20North Carolina A&T (350.7)MEACH106-95W100%0.0
2-25Delaware St. (331.5)MEACA64-65W100%0.0
2-27Howard (340.3)MEACA0-051%0.3
3-2Morgan St. (314.5)MEACH0-068%5.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland Eastern Shore's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland Eastern Shore's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland Eastern Shore.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC26.1326.1239.5041.01-5.49-4.70
HowardMEAC2.554.1215.3816.52-1.77-2.76
North Carolina A&TMEAC4.134.030.001.96-4.13-3.88
North Carolina CentralMEAC4.164.0373.9175.471.992.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC4.164.0020.8323.89-2.43-2.09
Delaware St.MEAC2.492.4125.9326.93-1.20-1.11
Florida A&MMEAC2.412.4020.0020.48-1.45-1.42
Coppin St.MEAC2.452.3726.9226.97-1.13-1.09
Norfolk St.MEAC2.462.3446.1545.97-0.19-0.19
South Carolina St.MEAC2.452.3432.0032.12-0.88-0.84
Savannah St.MEAC2.312.3133.3333.52-0.77-0.76
Morgan St.MEAC0.602.3146.1547.36-0.05-0.12
HamptonMEAC2.382.3137.5039.42-0.60-0.49
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.991.8544.4444.00-0.22-0.22
Virginia TechACC1.981.8470.3769.160.810.70
UCFAmer1.961.8164.2965.100.560.55
Louisiana TechCUSA1.951.8166.6767.760.650.64
UTEPCUSA1.951.8146.1546.63-0.15-0.12
AmericanPat1.921.8125.0025.00-0.96-0.91
George WashingtonA101.921.8153.5752.620.140.09
MichiganB101.921.8164.2963.970.550.51
Wichita St.MVC1.921.7986.2186.211.391.29
AkronMAC1.921.7877.7877.431.070.98
Colorado St.MWC1.921.7865.3864.330.590.51
UMBCAE1.921.7857.6957.690.300.27
Boston CollegeACC1.921.7828.5727.14-0.82-0.81
East CarolinaAmer0.280.2444.8343.04-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.240.2139.2939.29-0.05-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.210.1848.1548.15-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.170.1825.9325.22-0.08-0.09
Nicholls St.Slnd0.200.1840.0038.77-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.170.1553.5754.970.010.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.170.1580.7781.310.110.09
North TexasCUSA0.170.1523.0822.49-0.09-0.08
RichmondA100.170.1560.7161.450.040.03
ClemsonACC0.140.1550.0052.370.000.01
Miami FLACC0.130.1571.4369.290.060.06
Notre DameACC0.130.1475.8674.710.070.07
Stony BrookAE0.140.1258.6258.620.020.02
StetsonASun0.140.1228.5728.57-0.06-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.1240.0042.28-0.03-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1242.8642.02-0.01-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.070.1264.2964.650.020.03
RiceCUSA0.130.1266.6765.550.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1225.9325.10-0.05-0.06
UTSACUSA0.130.1237.0436.94-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.1244.8345.81-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.140.1255.1754.850.010.01
MarylandB100.100.1275.0074.310.050.06
SyracuseACC0.130.1256.6757.420.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.130.1253.5752.450.010.01
MassachusettsA100.130.1248.2847.58-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.130.1234.4833.33-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.100.1269.5767.060.040.04
VCUA100.100.1279.3178.000.060.06
NebraskaB100.100.1140.7439.61-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.100.1157.1455.730.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.110.0965.5265.520.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.100.0932.1432.14-0.04-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.110.0944.4445.74-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.0936.0040.25-0.03-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.0920.8321.37-0.06-0.05
New HampshireAE0.100.0959.2659.260.020.02
SamfordSC0.110.0953.5752.980.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.0959.2658.100.020.01
LSUSEC0.100.0932.1431.69-0.04-0.03
MaineAE0.100.0920.0020.00-0.06-0.06
HartfordAE0.100.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.110.0955.1754.740.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0953.5753.570.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.100.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.100.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.110.0954.8454.840.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.110.0955.5656.670.010.01
St. John'sBE0.100.0944.8343.89-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.070.0960.0060.000.010.02
Air ForceMWC0.100.0933.3332.49-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.100.0953.5752.890.010.01
BucknellPat0.100.0974.1974.190.050.04
IowaB100.100.0955.1754.140.010.01
Kansas St.B120.100.0958.6257.980.020.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.0951.6151.610.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0971.4371.670.040.04
MemphisAmer0.100.0962.0761.430.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0950.0049.680.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.100.0914.8114.35-0.07-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.0932.0030.44-0.04-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.070.0948.2847.22-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.0930.4331.29-0.04-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.100.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0971.4370.580.030.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.0955.1755.170.010.01
DuquesneA100.100.0934.4834.29-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.100.0975.8676.270.050.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.0926.6727.00-0.05-0.04
IUPUISum0.070.0939.2939.29-0.01-0.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0960.7159.700.010.02
UABCUSA0.100.0950.0052.300.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.100.0948.1548.55-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.100.0944.4445.39-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.060.0948.2847.91-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.100.0986.2186.520.070.06
Miami OHMAC0.060.0929.6328.06-0.03-0.04
TulsaAmer0.090.0950.0049.050.00-0.00
IndianaB100.100.0955.1753.960.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.100.0979.3179.060.060.05
TempleAmer0.100.0950.0050.990.000.00
VirginiaACC0.100.0967.8668.150.040.03
Florida St.ACC0.100.0879.3177.540.060.05
Michigan St.B100.090.0862.0761.020.020.02
AlbanyAE0.070.0660.0060.000.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0663.3363.330.020.02
MissouriSEC0.070.0625.0025.17-0.04-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.070.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.070.0683.3383.330.050.04
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0621.4322.56-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.070.0651.8551.850.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.070.0646.1545.04-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.070.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0662.0762.070.020.01
The CitadelSC0.070.0625.9325.45-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0650.0050.000.000.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0651.8551.850.000.00
FurmanSC0.070.0665.5265.520.020.02
High PointBSth0.030.0644.4444.44-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0639.1339.73-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0654.1752.440.010.00
ArmyPat0.060.0637.9337.93-0.02-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0665.3865.550.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0667.8666.480.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0642.3142.27-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.060.0630.0030.00-0.03-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0641.6741.50-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0657.6957.830.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0647.8349.16-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0651.7251.720.000.00
LafayettePat0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0657.6957.810.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0685.7186.430.050.04
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0658.3359.230.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0662.9662.960.020.02
PacificWCC0.070.0630.0030.00-0.03-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0648.0046.19-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0670.3769.030.030.02
UNLVMWC0.070.0634.4833.87-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.070.0644.4445.15-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0655.5655.160.000.01
PurdueB100.070.0679.3178.860.040.03
RutgersB100.030.0642.8642.28-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0660.7159.770.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0637.9338.88-0.02-0.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0650.0050.440.000.00
TulaneAmer0.060.0617.8618.08-0.04-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.070.0653.5755.070.000.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0690.0089.570.050.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0686.2185.440.050.04
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0648.1548.26-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0640.0041.22-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0682.7682.760.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0657.1456.880.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.070.0665.3866.640.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC0.060.0675.8674.140.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.060.0682.7681.210.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0650.0049.020.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.060.0651.7250.150.000.00
DavidsonA100.060.0651.8551.280.000.00
George MasonA100.060.0660.7159.910.010.01
IllinoisB100.060.0657.1457.010.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.040.0324.0025.26-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.040.0378.5778.180.020.02
Iowa St.B120.040.0367.8666.170.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.02-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0383.8783.870.020.02
OregonP120.040.0386.2186.570.030.02
Oregon St.P120.040.0313.7913.43-0.03-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.040.0375.0075.780.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0341.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.040.0389.6689.660.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0310.0010.00-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.040.0377.7877.780.020.02
BrownIvy0.000.0338.4639.38-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0379.3179.350.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0340.0041.36-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0332.2632.26-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.1752.800.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0326.9228.27-0.02-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0353.5753.810.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0374.0774.070.020.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0367.8666.440.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0350.0048.750.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0330.4330.00-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0348.0049.70-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0323.0824.04-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.030.0348.1547.91-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0379.3179.090.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.0025.07-0.02-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0328.0030.25-0.02-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0329.6331.85-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.0056.310.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0348.1546.78-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0352.0053.480.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0362.5062.610.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0360.7163.340.010.01
UtahP120.030.0361.5461.950.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0351.8550.780.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0375.0074.570.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.6796.670.030.03
MercerSC0.030.0342.8643.57-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.0760.370.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0346.1546.13-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0335.7135.48-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0367.8666.120.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0348.0049.55-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0340.0039.27-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.030.0315.3816.50-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0321.4322.28-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.030.0358.6258.150.010.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0324.0022.79-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0381.4880.740.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
FordhamA100.000.0342.8642.42-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0357.1457.030.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0351.8553.370.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0375.8674.340.020.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0368.9767.270.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0362.0762.540.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0367.8668.280.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.7136.08-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0364.2963.720.010.01
TexasB120.030.0334.4834.12-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0389.6690.150.030.02