Maryland Eastern Shore

Conference:	MEAC
Expected RPI:	345.0
Current RPI:	345
Expected SOS:	282
Current SOS:	282
Current Record:	2-26
Expected Record:	2-26
Current Conf Record:	2-15
Expected Conf Record:	2-15
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	2-15
Current OOC Record:	0-11
Expected OOC Record:	0-11
Expected OOC RPI:	327
Expected OOC SOS:	126

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
2-26	345.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland Eastern Shore.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	A	76-64	L	0%
11-11	Houston Baptist (310.0)	GWC	N	55-70	L	0%
11-12	Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)	SWAC	N	62-52	L	0%
11-16	South Florida (156.0)	BE	A	78-59	L	0%
11-17	Western Michigan (128.0)	MAC	N	51-68	L	0%
11-18	Loyola Chicago (223.0)	Horz	N	62-46	L	0%
12-1	Delaware St. (263.0)	MEAC	A	76-66	L	0%
12-5	Maryland (73.0)	ACC	A	100-68	L	0%
12-8	Cincinnati (50.0)	BE	A	92-60	L	0%
12-17	Connecticut (49.0)	BE	A	84-50	L	0%
12-22	Ohio (67.0)	MAC	A	93-57	L	0%
1-3	American (278.0)	Pat	A	63-49	L	0%
1-12	Norfolk St. (178.0)	MEAC	H	58-63	L	0%
1-19	Delaware St. (263.0)	MEAC	H	58-53	W	100%
1-26	Florida A&M (331.0)	MEAC	A	55-54	L	0%
1-28	Bethune Cookman (277.0)	MEAC	A	58-57	L	0%
2-2	North Carolina A&T (213.0)	MEAC	H	44-46	L	0%
2-4	North Carolina Central (155.0)	MEAC	H	54-82	L	0%
2-9	Howard (334.0)	MEAC	A	63-44	L	0%
2-11	Norfolk St. (178.0)	MEAC	A	85-63	L	0%
2-16	Morgan St. (236.0)	MEAC	H	55-87	L	0%
2-18	Coppin St. (313.0)	MEAC	H	64-62	W	100%
2-20	Hampton (287.0)	MEAC	H	59-63	L	0%
2-25	Howard (334.0)	MEAC	H	45-49	L	0%
3-2	Morgan St. (236.0)	MEAC	A	58-45	L	0%
3-4	Coppin St. (313.0)	MEAC	A	63-60	L	0%
3-7	Savannah St. (166.0)	MEAC	A	71-54	L	0%
3-11	Savannah St. (166.0)	MEAC	N	59-44	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland Eastern Shore's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Maryland Eastern Shore's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Maryland Eastern Shore.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	26.16	26.16	5.08	5.08	-23.50	-23.50
Delaware St.	MEAC	4.29	4.29	41.38	41.38	-0.74	-0.74
Morgan St.	MEAC	4.29	4.29	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	4.23	4.23	14.81	14.81	-2.98	-2.98
Coppin St.	MEAC	4.20	4.20	20.69	20.69	-2.46	-2.46
Norfolk St.	MEAC	4.20	4.20	63.33	63.33	1.12	1.12
Savannah St.	MEAC	4.12	4.12	51.72	51.72	0.14	0.14
Hampton	MEAC	2.63	2.63	43.33	43.33	-0.35	-0.35
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	2.57	2.57	51.52	51.52	0.08	0.08
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	2.51	2.51	35.48	35.48	-0.73	-0.73
Florida A&M	MEAC	2.36	2.36	17.86	17.86	-1.52	-1.52
North Carolina Central	MEAC	2.36	2.36	66.67	66.67	0.79	0.79
South Florida	BE	1.93	1.93	36.67	36.67	-0.51	-0.51
Cincinnati	BE	1.90	1.90	65.62	65.62	0.59	0.59
Western Michigan	MAC	1.90	1.90	60.00	60.00	0.38	0.38
Connecticut	BE	1.90	1.90	65.52	65.52	0.59	0.59
American	Pat	1.88	1.88	31.03	31.03	-0.71	-0.71
Ohio	MAC	1.87	1.87	71.88	71.88	0.82	0.82
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.85	1.85	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Hawaii	BW	1.85	1.85	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Houston Baptist	GWC	1.85	1.85	37.04	37.04	-0.48	-0.48
Loyola Chicago	Horz	1.84	1.84	44.83	44.83	-0.19	-0.19
Maryland	ACC	1.84	1.84	63.64	63.64	0.50	0.50
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.75	0.75	14.29	14.29	-0.53	-0.53
Pittsburgh	BE	0.26	0.26	75.00	75.00	0.13	0.13
Central Florida	CUSA	0.24	0.24	62.07	62.07	0.06	0.06
Marshall	CUSA	0.23	0.23	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Marquette	BE	0.20	0.20	74.19	74.19	0.10	0.10
Akron	MAC	0.20	0.20	80.65	80.65	0.12	0.12
Seton Hall	BE	0.20	0.20	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.19	0.19	35.71	35.71	-0.05	-0.05
Rutgers	BE	0.17	0.17	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.17	0.17	23.33	23.33	-0.09	-0.09
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.17	0.17	70.97	70.97	0.07	0.07
Wagner	NEC	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.15	0.15	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.15	0.15	34.38	34.38	-0.05	-0.05
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.14	0.14	23.33	23.33	-0.08	-0.08
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.14	0.14	80.65	80.65	0.09	0.09
Providence	BE	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.14	0.14	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Kent St.	MAC	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.14	0.14	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.12	0.12	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Army	Pat	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.12	0.12	22.58	22.58	-0.07	-0.07
Iowa	B10	0.12	0.12	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.12	0.12	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Colgate	Pat	0.12	0.12	34.38	34.38	-0.04	-0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Holy Cross	Pat	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.12	0.12	71.43	71.43	0.05	0.05
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.11	0.11	13.79	13.79	-0.08	-0.08
Toledo	MAC	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.11	0.11	85.29	85.29	0.08	0.08
Villanova	BE	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.11	0.11	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Bowling Green	MAC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
New Orleans	ind	0.09	0.09	18.18	18.18	-0.06	-0.06
Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Oregon	P12	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Pacific	BW	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.09	0.09	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	17.86	17.86	-0.06	-0.06
Lafayette	Pat	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.09	0.09	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Boston University	AE	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Bucknell	Pat	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.06	-0.06
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Florida International	SB	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Southern California	P12	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.06	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.06	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01