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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Maryland Eastern Shore

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:319.1
Current RPI:315
Expected SOS:276
Current SOS:272
Current Record:4-16
Expected Record:6-22
Current Conf Record:2-6
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.20%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-12
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:291
Expected OOC SOS:142



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-18271.70.10%
9-19284.40.70%
8-20296.14.45%
7-21306.014.56%
6-22315.829.30%
5-23325.134.55%
4-24332.216.33%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland Eastern Shore.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11George Washington (196.4)A10A64-48L0%0.0
11-14American (150.9)PatH64-62W100%0.0
11-18Tulane (174.9)CUSAA73-52L0%0.0
11-20Rice (177.4)CUSAA81-49L0%0.0
11-22Kansas St. (45.9)B12A92-50L0%0.0
11-25Louisiana Tech (204.7)WACN73-54L0%0.0
11-26Wyoming (55.5)MWCA73-43L0%0.0
11-27Portland St. (207.8)BSkyN69-79L0%0.0
11-30Navy (318.8)PatH59-46W100%0.0
12-3Delaware St. (279.9)MEACH68-78L0%0.0
12-17Air Force (174.7)MWCA64-60L0%0.0
12-27Virginia (39.5)ACCA69-42L0%0.0
1-3Lehigh (109.7)PatA82-55L0%0.0
1-7Norfolk St. (131.7)MEACA78-72L0%0.0
1-14Delaware St. (279.9)MEACA60-63W100%0.0
1-21Florida A&M (329.2)MEACH63-68L0%0.0
1-23Bethune Cookman (260.5)MEACH55-67L0%0.0
1-28North Carolina A&T (266.3)MEACA91-66L0%0.0
1-30North Carolina Central (240.5)MEACA77-46L0%0.0
2-4Howard (313.9)MEACH78-65W100%0.0
2-6Norfolk St. (131.7)MEACH0-018%-9.9
2-11Morgan St. (264.2)MEACA0-011%-13.7
2-13Coppin St. (214.5)MEACA0-09%-14.6
2-15Hampton (307.2)MEACA0-019%-9.5
2-20Howard (313.9)MEACA0-031%-5.3
2-25Morgan St. (264.2)MEACH0-026%-6.9
2-27Coppin St. (214.5)MEACH0-024%-7.9
3-1Savannah St. (214.3)MEACH0-021%-8.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland Eastern Shore's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland Eastern Shore's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland Eastern Shore.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC26.3626.2220.0019.77-15.81-15.86
Norfolk St.MEAC2.764.2666.6768.100.921.54
HowardMEAC2.944.2619.0521.30-1.82-2.44
Delaware St.MEAC5.424.2433.3339.00-1.81-0.93
Morgan St.MEAC0.244.2325.0034.19-0.12-1.34
Coppin St.MEAC0.304.2142.1146.86-0.05-0.26
HamptonMEAC0.222.6036.3637.02-0.06-0.68
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.952.3730.0034.93-1.18-0.71
Florida A&MMEAC3.022.3615.0019.49-2.12-1.44
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.952.3435.0040.74-0.89-0.43
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.942.3335.2941.68-0.87-0.39
Savannah St.MEAC0.232.3352.3857.100.010.33
AmericanPat2.672.0168.1866.070.970.65
NavyPat2.732.0010.0013.69-2.18-1.45
WyomingMWC2.681.9275.0069.651.340.75
LehighPat2.611.9172.7374.021.190.92
George WashingtonA102.701.8831.8229.74-0.98-0.76
TulaneCUSA2.681.8860.0057.050.540.27
RiceCUSA2.681.8845.0044.48-0.27-0.21
Kansas St.B122.611.8871.4367.181.120.65
Air ForceMWC2.561.8544.4439.85-0.28-0.38
Louisiana TechWAC2.621.8540.0041.43-0.52-0.32
Portland St.BSky2.621.8540.0043.79-0.52-0.23
VirginiaACC2.501.7980.9576.001.550.93
South Carolina St.MEAC0.290.7110.0014.93-0.23-0.50
Texas ChristianMWC0.300.2657.1449.540.04-0.00
ArmyPat0.230.2240.9141.72-0.04-0.04
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.130.2082.6181.440.080.12
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.2062.5062.490.010.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.330.2050.0051.730.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.320.1939.1342.12-0.07-0.03
BucknellPat0.170.1973.9175.000.080.09
ColgatePat0.220.1930.4329.50-0.09-0.08
Holy CrossPat0.220.1940.9142.05-0.04-0.03
LafayettePat0.230.1943.4842.95-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.340.1782.6184.570.220.12
CharlotteA100.120.1750.0049.450.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.200.1647.8350.65-0.010.00
HoustonCUSA0.120.1647.6244.63-0.01-0.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.180.1638.1037.86-0.04-0.04
Texas El PasoCUSA0.180.1643.4843.31-0.02-0.02
Longwoodind0.120.1530.0027.84-0.05-0.07
Virginia TechACC0.170.1556.5255.200.020.02
San Jose St.WAC0.060.1327.2726.95-0.03-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.270.1370.8364.420.110.04
Boise St.MWC0.130.1342.8641.13-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1366.6760.800.040.03
New MexicoMWC0.130.1381.8281.030.080.08
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1385.7178.050.090.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.1356.5253.100.020.01
OklahomaB120.110.1359.0954.700.020.01
IndianaB100.060.1375.0075.780.030.07
Idaho St.BSky0.180.1333.3333.88-0.06-0.04
TulsaCUSA0.120.1360.8759.050.030.02
Central FloridaCUSA0.180.1371.4366.600.080.04
Utah ValleyGWC0.180.1354.5557.690.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.110.1380.9577.380.070.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.1356.5255.950.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.1227.2727.21-0.02-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.110.1212.5013.44-0.08-0.09
KansasB120.110.1278.2678.390.060.07
North FloridaASun0.180.1245.8346.68-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.110.1279.1775.980.070.06
Iowa St.B120.170.1273.9168.430.080.05
RichmondA100.110.1250.0048.490.00-0.00
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.1077.2773.450.030.05
TowsonCAA0.060.104.005.26-0.05-0.09
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1034.7838.77-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.130.1044.4441.71-0.01-0.02
OregonP120.190.1069.5764.530.070.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.120.1030.0031.54-0.05-0.04
OhioMAC0.060.1081.8277.200.040.05
Oregon St.P120.120.1063.6463.160.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.180.1045.0046.13-0.02-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.0926.0928.60-0.05-0.04
QuinnipiacNEC0.170.0956.5257.150.020.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.050.0913.6416.35-0.04-0.06
Southern MississippiCUSA0.120.0985.7182.180.090.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.0947.6248.82-0.01-0.00
Seattleind0.120.0923.5333.28-0.06-0.03
UABCUSA0.110.0940.9139.82-0.02-0.02
XavierA100.050.0965.2263.740.020.03
HawaiiWAC0.120.0957.1453.120.020.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.120.0925.0028.52-0.06-0.04
IdahoWAC0.060.0947.6251.08-0.000.00
StetsonASun0.120.0931.8231.31-0.04-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.0918.1821.13-0.08-0.05
MissouriB120.120.0991.3087.180.100.07
Illinois St.MVC0.120.0962.5062.060.030.02
TexasB120.120.0960.8761.370.030.02
Texas A&MB120.120.0952.3846.150.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.110.0979.1778.100.070.05
BaylorB120.120.0990.9183.850.100.06
FordhamA100.110.0940.9134.50-0.02-0.03
ConnecticutBE0.000.0768.1863.990.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.0772.7364.430.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0765.2260.580.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.150.0745.4541.20-0.01-0.01
Notre DameBE0.150.0765.2262.650.040.02
Chicago St.GWC0.130.074.769.95-0.11-0.05
ColoradoP120.130.0766.6762.650.040.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.130.0719.0524.61-0.08-0.03
DrakeMVC0.120.0652.1750.090.010.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0647.8343.66-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.120.0668.1867.910.040.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0650.0056.760.000.01
DenverSB0.120.0670.8372.230.050.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0640.9144.03-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0659.0957.760.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.120.0659.0959.720.020.01
MemphisCUSA0.060.0669.5771.510.020.03
MontanaBSky0.120.0670.0073.280.050.03
Montana St.BSky0.120.0645.0041.76-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.06100.0094.550.000.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.120.0613.6416.14-0.09-0.04
Old DominionCAA0.060.0660.0058.290.010.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0637.5038.52-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0630.0033.20-0.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0656.5253.770.000.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.000.0625.0025.13-0.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.120.0680.0076.840.070.03
AuburnSEC0.120.0656.5248.810.02-0.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.120.0690.9187.740.100.05
BradleyMVC0.110.0624.0024.86-0.06-0.03
SyracuseBE0.110.0695.8392.010.100.05
TempleA100.060.0677.2775.060.030.03
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.120.0635.0039.38-0.03-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0669.5765.150.020.02
CornellIvy0.110.0636.8441.45-0.03-0.01
Fresno St.WAC0.060.0639.1344.52-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0617.3922.00-0.04-0.03
Long IslandNEC0.060.0670.8371.050.020.03
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0645.4546.99-0.01-0.00
NevadaWAC0.060.0680.9576.420.040.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.0669.5768.900.050.02
St. Francis PANEC0.110.0621.7422.76-0.06-0.03
ToledoMAC0.060.0638.1040.81-0.01-0.01
Utah St.WAC0.060.0650.0052.930.000.00
ClemsonACC0.060.0650.0048.360.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.060.0672.7371.710.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0640.0040.18-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0670.8368.820.020.02
MarylandACC0.000.0659.0950.820.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0686.9683.160.000.04
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0645.4540.70-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.060.0631.8225.98-0.02-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0317.3924.41-0.04-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0340.9138.38-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0381.8281.490.040.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0335.0040.78-0.02-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0347.0650.75-0.000.00
Virginia Military InstBSth0.070.0345.0044.15-0.01-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.070.0341.6740.61-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.060.0360.0060.420.010.01
ElonSC0.060.0350.0047.590.00-0.00
MercerASun0.060.0370.8371.640.020.01
MonmouthNEC0.060.0328.0028.91-0.03-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0340.9143.66-0.01-0.00
SienaMAAC0.060.0345.4545.55-0.01-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0317.6527.10-0.04-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0316.6723.02-0.04-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0355.0057.410.010.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.060.0347.8347.87-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0365.0066.700.020.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0356.0055.650.010.00
CreightonMVC0.060.0387.5085.410.040.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0345.4544.02-0.01-0.00
IowaB100.060.0354.1749.440.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0334.7838.42-0.02-0.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0361.9067.230.010.01
NC GreensboroSC0.060.0334.7833.46-0.02-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0325.0023.75-0.03-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0362.5061.500.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0347.3752.87-0.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.060.0356.5250.270.010.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0333.3333.82-0.02-0.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0326.3228.83-0.03-0.01
South FloridaBE0.060.0354.5548.600.01-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.060.0335.0035.26-0.02-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0334.7837.24-0.02-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0359.0957.930.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0343.4844.25-0.01-0.00
BrownIvy0.050.0327.2723.80-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.050.038.3310.86-0.05-0.02
ButlerHorz0.000.0350.0050.800.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0327.7829.87-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0327.2735.02-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0355.0054.800.010.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.038.7012.13-0.04-0.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0336.3639.72-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.038.708.99-0.05-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0341.1842.61-0.01-0.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0376.1972.910.030.01
North DakotaGWC0.000.0333.3341.31-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0347.8348.56-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0355.0054.480.010.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0327.7829.58-0.03-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0343.4840.28-0.01-0.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.050.0321.7424.58-0.03-0.02
StanfordP120.060.0369.5768.290.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0360.8759.760.010.01
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.060.0376.1975.940.030.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0345.4546.08-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.970.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0368.1869.100.020.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0333.3335.97-0.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0330.4326.44-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0375.0074.610.030.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0355.0060.330.010.01
DaytonA100.000.0360.8760.960.000.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0347.8349.03-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.060.0386.3683.090.040.02
DuquesneA100.000.0359.0956.350.000.00
George MasonCAA0.060.0376.0072.500.030.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0390.4887.910.040.02
High PointBSth0.000.0331.8232.75-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0371.4373.350.020.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.060.0359.0957.280.010.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.060.0319.0521.29-0.04-0.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0373.9168.580.030.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0365.0060.020.020.01
MichiganB100.060.0372.7366.810.030.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0320.8320.60-0.03-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0368.0070.030.000.01
RutgersBE0.000.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0344.0045.89-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0326.3229.71-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0334.7832.06-0.02-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0360.0059.060.010.01
St. LouisA100.050.0377.2777.670.030.02
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.0380.0078.060.030.02
West VirginiaBE0.060.0365.2265.170.020.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0334.7834.61-0.02-0.01