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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Maryland Eastern Shore

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:347.0
Current RPI:347
Expected SOS:339
Current SOS:339
Current Record:5-23
Expected Record:5-23
Current Conf Record:4-13
Expected Conf Record:4-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-17
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:346
Expected OOC SOS:299



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
5-23347.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland Eastern Shore.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Columbia (130.0)IvyA73-54L0%0.0
11-14Iowa (56.0)B10A109-63L0%0.0
11-20Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH78-71W100%0.0
11-26Navy (321.0)PatA67-59L0%0.0
12-2UMBC (327.0)AEA64-59L0%0.0
12-15Oregon St. (100.0)P12A98-66L0%0.0
12-17Purdue (145.0)B10A79-50L0%0.0
12-29American (118.0)PatH58-71L0%0.0
12-31Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCA82-66L0%0.0
1-2Mississippi St. (245.0)SECA77-63L0%0.0
1-6Savannah St. (273.0)MEACA66-42L0%0.0
1-8South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACA78-71L0%0.0
1-11Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACH62-66L0%0.0
1-18Howard (323.0)MEACA88-55L0%0.0
1-25Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACA69-63L0%0.0
2-1North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACH67-60W100%0.0
2-3North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACH62-66L0%0.0
2-8Coppin St. (261.0)MEACH50-58L0%0.0
2-10Hampton (204.0)MEACA71-65L0%0.0
2-15Howard (323.0)MEACH87-73W100%0.0
2-17Morgan St. (225.0)MEACH72-88L0%0.0
2-19NJIT (308.0)indH76-77L0%0.0
2-22Delaware St. (329.0)MEACA84-71L0%0.0
2-24Hampton (204.0)MEACH89-104L0%0.0
3-1Coppin St. (261.0)MEACA67-68W100%0.0
3-3Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACA77-65L0%0.0
3-6Delaware St. (329.0)MEACH84-70W100%0.0
3-10Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACN78-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland Eastern Shore's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland Eastern Shore's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland Eastern Shore.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC26.2526.2516.1016.10-17.79-17.79
Norfolk St.MEAC6.036.0348.1548.15-0.22-0.22
Coppin St.MEAC4.414.4134.4834.48-1.37-1.37
HowardMEAC4.314.3117.2417.24-2.83-2.83
HamptonMEAC4.314.3157.1457.140.620.62
Delaware St.MEAC4.194.1923.0823.08-2.26-2.26
Morgan St.MEAC2.652.6546.6746.67-0.18-0.18
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.632.6383.3383.331.751.75
Savannah St.MEAC2.472.4734.4834.48-0.77-0.77
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.392.3926.6726.67-1.11-1.11
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.382.3813.7913.79-1.72-1.72
South Carolina St.MEAC2.352.3522.2222.22-1.30-1.30
AmericanPat1.991.9961.2961.290.450.45
UMBCAE1.961.9625.0025.00-0.98-0.98
NJITind1.941.9433.3333.33-0.65-0.65
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.931.9351.6151.610.060.06
NavyPat1.901.9025.0025.00-0.95-0.95
Oregon St.P121.841.8450.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB101.811.8145.1645.16-0.18-0.18
ColumbiaIvy1.811.8158.6258.620.310.31
IowaB101.811.8160.0060.000.360.36
Mississippi St.SEC1.791.7940.6240.62-0.33-0.33
Virginia TechACC1.791.7926.6726.67-0.83-0.83
Florida A&MMEAC0.770.7740.0040.00-0.15-0.15
VirginiaACC0.240.2482.3582.350.150.15
Boston UniversityPat0.230.2370.5970.590.100.10
ColgatePat0.210.2140.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.210.2151.5251.520.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.200.2031.0331.03-0.08-0.08
MichiganB100.200.2075.7675.760.100.10
Ohio St.B100.200.2073.5373.530.090.09
St. Francis NYNEC0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
ArmyPat0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.180.1831.0331.03-0.07-0.07
TowsonCAA0.180.1867.7467.740.060.06
Loyola MDPat0.180.1834.4834.48-0.05-0.05
BucknellPat0.180.1853.3353.330.010.01
Michigan St.B100.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
AlbanyAE0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
LafayettePat0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
LehighPat0.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
MarylandACC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
NorthwesternB100.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
MaineAE0.130.1317.8617.86-0.09-0.09
ClemsonACC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
PennIvy0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
DelawareCAA0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
Georgia TechACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Northern KentuckyASun0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
East CarolinaCUSA0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.120.1286.2186.210.080.08
LibertyBSth0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
RadfordBSth0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
WinthropBSth0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
NebraskaB100.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
AkronMAC0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
PittsburghACC0.120.1273.5373.530.050.05
OregonP120.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
USCP120.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
MinnesotaB100.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
WisconsinB100.110.1178.7978.790.070.07
Penn St.B100.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
New HampshireAE0.100.1017.2417.24-0.06-0.06
George WashingtonA100.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
CampbellBSth0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
SeattleWAC0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
BrownIvy0.090.0951.8551.850.000.00
UCFAmer0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
CaliforniaP120.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
IllinoisB100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Washington St.P120.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
VermontAE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.060.063.703.70-0.06-0.06
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0670.3770.370.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0641.1841.18-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
ArizonaP120.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
HoustonAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
ToledoMAC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
UCLAP120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
WashingtonP120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
FloridaSEC0.060.0694.1294.120.050.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
VillanovaBE0.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0616.1316.13-0.04-0.04
SienaMAAC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
HofstraCAA0.040.0430.3030.30-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00