Maryland Eastern Shore

Conference:	MEAC
Expected RPI:	319.1
Current RPI:	315
Expected SOS:	276
Current SOS:	272
Current Record:	4-16
Expected Record:	6-22
Current Conf Record:	2-6
Expected Conf Record:	4-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.20%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-12
Current OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC RPI:	291
Expected OOC SOS:	142

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-18	271.7	0.10%
9-19	284.4	0.70%
8-20	296.1	4.45%
7-21	306.0	14.56%
6-22	315.8	29.30%
5-23	325.1	34.55%
4-24	332.2	16.33%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland Eastern Shore.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	George Washington (196.4)	A10	A	64-48	L	0%	0.0
11-14	American (150.9)	Pat	H	64-62	W	100%	0.0
11-18	Tulane (174.9)	CUSA	A	73-52	L	0%	0.0
11-20	Rice (177.4)	CUSA	A	81-49	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Kansas St. (45.9)	B12	A	92-50	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Louisiana Tech (204.7)	WAC	N	73-54	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Wyoming (55.5)	MWC	A	73-43	L	0%	0.0
11-27	Portland St. (207.8)	BSky	N	69-79	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Navy (318.8)	Pat	H	59-46	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Delaware St. (279.9)	MEAC	H	68-78	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Air Force (174.7)	MWC	A	64-60	L	0%	0.0
12-27	Virginia (39.5)	ACC	A	69-42	L	0%	0.0
1-3	Lehigh (109.7)	Pat	A	82-55	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Norfolk St. (131.7)	MEAC	A	78-72	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Delaware St. (279.9)	MEAC	A	60-63	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Florida A&M (329.2)	MEAC	H	63-68	L	0%	0.0
1-23	Bethune Cookman (260.5)	MEAC	H	55-67	L	0%	0.0
1-28	North Carolina A&T (266.3)	MEAC	A	91-66	L	0%	0.0
1-30	North Carolina Central (240.5)	MEAC	A	77-46	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Howard (313.9)	MEAC	H	78-65	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Norfolk St. (131.7)	MEAC	H	0-0		18%	-9.9
2-11	Morgan St. (264.2)	MEAC	A	0-0		11%	-13.7
2-13	Coppin St. (214.5)	MEAC	A	0-0		9%	-14.6
2-15	Hampton (307.2)	MEAC	A	0-0		19%	-9.5
2-20	Howard (313.9)	MEAC	A	0-0		31%	-5.3
2-25	Morgan St. (264.2)	MEAC	H	0-0		26%	-6.9
2-27	Coppin St. (214.5)	MEAC	H	0-0		24%	-7.9
3-1	Savannah St. (214.3)	MEAC	H	0-0		21%	-8.9

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland Eastern Shore's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Maryland Eastern Shore's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Maryland Eastern Shore.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	26.36	26.22	20.00	19.77	-15.81	-15.86
Norfolk St.	MEAC	2.76	4.26	66.67	68.10	0.92	1.54
Howard	MEAC	2.94	4.26	19.05	21.30	-1.82	-2.44
Delaware St.	MEAC	5.42	4.24	33.33	39.00	-1.81	-0.93
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.24	4.23	25.00	34.19	-0.12	-1.34
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.30	4.21	42.11	46.86	-0.05	-0.26
Hampton	MEAC	0.22	2.60	36.36	37.02	-0.06	-0.68
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	2.95	2.37	30.00	34.93	-1.18	-0.71
Florida A&M	MEAC	3.02	2.36	15.00	19.49	-2.12	-1.44
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	2.95	2.34	35.00	40.74	-0.89	-0.43
North Carolina Central	MEAC	2.94	2.33	35.29	41.68	-0.87	-0.39
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.23	2.33	52.38	57.10	0.01	0.33
American	Pat	2.67	2.01	68.18	66.07	0.97	0.65
Navy	Pat	2.73	2.00	10.00	13.69	-2.18	-1.45
Wyoming	MWC	2.68	1.92	75.00	69.65	1.34	0.75
Lehigh	Pat	2.61	1.91	72.73	74.02	1.19	0.92
George Washington	A10	2.70	1.88	31.82	29.74	-0.98	-0.76
Tulane	CUSA	2.68	1.88	60.00	57.05	0.54	0.27
Rice	CUSA	2.68	1.88	45.00	44.48	-0.27	-0.21
Kansas St.	B12	2.61	1.88	71.43	67.18	1.12	0.65
Air Force	MWC	2.56	1.85	44.44	39.85	-0.28	-0.38
Louisiana Tech	WAC	2.62	1.85	40.00	41.43	-0.52	-0.32
Portland St.	BSky	2.62	1.85	40.00	43.79	-0.52	-0.23
Virginia	ACC	2.50	1.79	80.95	76.00	1.55	0.93
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.29	0.71	10.00	14.93	-0.23	-0.50
Texas Christian	MWC	0.30	0.26	57.14	49.54	0.04	-0.00
Army	Pat	0.23	0.22	40.91	41.72	-0.04	-0.04
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.13	0.20	82.61	81.44	0.08	0.12
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.20	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.05
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.33	0.20	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.32	0.19	39.13	42.12	-0.07	-0.03
Bucknell	Pat	0.17	0.19	73.91	75.00	0.08	0.09
Colgate	Pat	0.22	0.19	30.43	29.50	-0.09	-0.08
Holy Cross	Pat	0.22	0.19	40.91	42.05	-0.04	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.23	0.19	43.48	42.95	-0.03	-0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.34	0.17	82.61	84.57	0.22	0.12
Charlotte	A10	0.12	0.17	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.20	0.16	47.83	50.65	-0.01	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.12	0.16	47.62	44.63	-0.01	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.18	0.16	38.10	37.86	-0.04	-0.04
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.18	0.16	43.48	43.31	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	ind	0.12	0.15	30.00	27.84	-0.05	-0.07
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.17	0.15	56.52	55.20	0.02	0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.06	0.13	27.27	26.95	-0.03	-0.06
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.27	0.13	70.83	64.42	0.11	0.04
Boise St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	42.86	41.13	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	66.67	60.80	0.04	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.13	0.13	81.82	81.03	0.08	0.08
San Diego St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	85.71	78.05	0.09	0.07
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.15	0.13	56.52	53.10	0.02	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.13	59.09	54.70	0.02	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.13	75.00	75.78	0.03	0.07
Idaho St.	BSky	0.18	0.13	33.33	33.88	-0.06	-0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.12	0.13	60.87	59.05	0.03	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.18	0.13	71.43	66.60	0.08	0.04
Utah Valley	GWC	0.18	0.13	54.55	57.69	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.11	0.13	80.95	77.38	0.07	0.07
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.11	0.13	56.52	55.95	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.12	27.27	27.21	-0.02	-0.06
William & Mary	CAA	0.11	0.12	12.50	13.44	-0.08	-0.09
Kansas	B12	0.11	0.12	78.26	78.39	0.06	0.07
North Florida	ASun	0.18	0.12	45.83	46.68	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.11	0.12	79.17	75.98	0.07	0.06
Iowa St.	B12	0.17	0.12	73.91	68.43	0.08	0.05
Richmond	A10	0.11	0.12	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.10	77.27	73.45	0.03	0.05
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.10	4.00	5.26	-0.05	-0.09
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.00	0.10	34.78	38.77	-0.00	-0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.13	0.10	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.19	0.10	69.57	64.53	0.07	0.03
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.12	0.10	30.00	31.54	-0.05	-0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.10	81.82	77.20	0.04	0.05
Oregon St.	P12	0.12	0.10	63.64	63.16	0.03	0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.18	0.10	45.00	46.13	-0.02	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.11	0.09	26.09	28.60	-0.05	-0.04
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.17	0.09	56.52	57.15	0.02	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.09	13.64	16.35	-0.04	-0.06
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.12	0.09	85.71	82.18	0.09	0.06
Bowling Green	MAC	0.11	0.09	47.62	48.82	-0.01	-0.00
Seattle	ind	0.12	0.09	23.53	33.28	-0.06	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.11	0.09	40.91	39.82	-0.02	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.09	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.03
Hawaii	WAC	0.12	0.09	57.14	53.12	0.02	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.12	0.09	25.00	28.52	-0.06	-0.04
Idaho	WAC	0.06	0.09	47.62	51.08	-0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.12	0.09	31.82	31.31	-0.04	-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.12	0.09	18.18	21.13	-0.08	-0.05
Missouri	B12	0.12	0.09	91.30	87.18	0.10	0.07
Illinois St.	MVC	0.12	0.09	62.50	62.06	0.03	0.02
Texas	B12	0.12	0.09	60.87	61.37	0.03	0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.12	0.09	52.38	46.15	0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.11	0.09	79.17	78.10	0.07	0.05
Baylor	B12	0.12	0.09	90.91	83.85	0.10	0.06
Fordham	A10	0.11	0.09	40.91	34.50	-0.02	-0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.00	0.07	68.18	63.99	0.00	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.00	0.07	72.73	64.43	0.00	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.00	0.07	65.22	60.58	0.00	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.15	0.07	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.15	0.07	65.22	62.65	0.04	0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.13	0.07	4.76	9.95	-0.11	-0.05
Colorado	P12	0.13	0.07	66.67	62.65	0.04	0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.13	0.07	19.05	24.61	-0.08	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.12	0.06	52.17	50.09	0.01	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.06	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.12	0.06	68.18	67.91	0.04	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.00	0.06	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.01
Denver	SB	0.12	0.06	70.83	72.23	0.05	0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.06	40.91	44.03	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.00	0.06	59.09	57.76	0.00	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.12	0.06	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.03
Montana	BSky	0.12	0.06	70.00	73.28	0.05	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.12	0.06	45.00	41.76	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.00	0.06	100.00	94.55	0.00	0.06
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.12	0.06	13.64	16.14	-0.09	-0.04
Old Dominion	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.06	0.06	37.50	38.52	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.00	0.06	30.00	33.20	-0.00	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.00	0.06	56.52	53.77	0.00	0.00
Southern California	P12	0.00	0.06	25.00	25.13	-0.00	-0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.12	0.06	80.00	76.84	0.07	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.12	0.06	56.52	48.81	0.02	-0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.12	0.06	90.91	87.74	0.10	0.05
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.06	24.00	24.86	-0.06	-0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.11	0.06	95.83	92.01	0.10	0.05
Temple	A10	0.06	0.06	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.12	0.06	35.00	39.38	-0.03	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.06	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.11	0.06	36.84	41.45	-0.03	-0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	39.13	44.52	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	17.39	22.00	-0.04	-0.03
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.06	70.83	71.05	0.02	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.00
Nevada	WAC	0.06	0.06	80.95	76.42	0.04	0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.12	0.06	69.57	68.90	0.05	0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.11	0.06	21.74	22.76	-0.06	-0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	72.73	71.71	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.06	40.00	40.18	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.06	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.00	0.06	59.09	50.82	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.00	0.06	86.96	83.16	0.00	0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	45.45	40.70	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.07	0.03	17.39	24.41	-0.04	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.03	81.82	81.49	0.04	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.07	0.03	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.07	0.03	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.07	0.03	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.07	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.06	0.03	60.00	60.42	0.01	0.01
Elon	SC	0.06	0.03	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.03	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.06	0.03	28.00	28.91	-0.03	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.03	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.03	17.65	27.10	-0.04	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	16.67	23.02	-0.04	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.03	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.03	65.00	66.70	0.02	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.03	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.06	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.03	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.02	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.03	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.03	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.06	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.03	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.03	26.32	28.83	-0.03	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.03	35.00	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.03	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.03	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.03	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.03	27.27	23.80	-0.02	-0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.33	10.86	-0.05	-0.02
Butler	Horz	0.00	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.00	0.03	27.78	29.87	-0.00	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.00	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.00	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.03	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.70	12.13	-0.04	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.03	8.70	8.99	-0.05	-0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.03	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.00	0.03	33.33	41.31	-0.00	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.03	27.78	29.58	-0.03	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.03	21.74	24.58	-0.03	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.06	0.03	69.57	68.29	0.02	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.03	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.03	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.00	0.03	75.00	73.97	0.00	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.03	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.97	-0.02	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.03	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.03	75.00	74.61	0.03	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.03	55.00	60.33	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.00	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.00	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.03	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.00	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.00	0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.06	0.03	76.00	72.50	0.03	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.03	90.48	87.91	0.04	0.02
High Point	BSth	0.00	0.03	31.82	32.75	-0.00	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.03	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.03	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.03	19.05	21.29	-0.04	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.03	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.02	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.03	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.03	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.00	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.00	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.00	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.00	0.03	44.00	45.89	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.00	0.03	26.32	29.71	-0.00	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.03	34.78	32.06	-0.02	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.03	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.06	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.03	34.78	34.61	-0.02	-0.01