live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Maryland Eastern Shore

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:320.1
Current RPI:124
Expected SOS:327
Current SOS:26
Current Record:0-2
Expected Record:8-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-12
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:317
Expected OOC SOS:119



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-10160.00.01%
16-11170.00.02%
15-12189.40.08%
14-13217.10.23%
13-14238.00.78%
12-15260.32.66%
11-16278.85.82%
10-17296.210.19%
9-18311.515.75%
8-19323.119.41%
7-20332.318.07%
6-21339.213.44%
5-22344.38.24%
4-23347.53.73%
3-24349.41.20%
2-25350.50.30%
1-26350.80.05%
0-27351.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland Eastern Shore.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Maryland (25.7)B10A96-43L0%0.0
11-18Georgetown (126.6)BEA83-57L0%0.0
11-24Jackson St. (279.5)SWACN0-035%-4.6
11-27Old Dominion (99.3)CUSAA0-03%-22.9
12-2American (295.7)PatH0-042%-2.3
12-4Duquesne (253.1)A10A0-011%-14.9
12-8Liberty (192.4)BSthA0-08%-16.5
12-10Virginia Tech (63.1)ACCA0-00%-31.5
12-15Creighton (36.3)BEA0-00%-32.1
12-20Iowa St. (151.6)B12A0-02%-24.7
12-22Drake (218.6)MVCA0-010%-15.2
1-3Morgan St. (319.1)MEACA0-039%-3.3
1-6Hampton (281.6)MEACH0-038%-3.6
1-8Bethune Cookman (339.2)MEACH0-057%2.1
1-13Savannah St. (300.1)MEACA0-041%-2.7
1-15South Carolina St. (317.2)MEACA0-036%-4.3
1-20North Carolina A&T (286.8)MEACH0-045%-1.4
1-22North Carolina Central (279.7)MEACH0-038%-3.6
1-27Howard (252.7)MEACH0-035%-4.6
1-29Coppin St. (329.3)MEACA0-045%-1.4
2-5Florida A&M (335.5)MEACH0-072%7.0
2-10Bethune Cookman (339.2)MEACA0-037%-3.9
2-12Howard (252.7)MEACA0-019%-10.6
2-17North Carolina Central (279.7)MEACA0-021%-9.6
2-19North Carolina A&T (286.8)MEACA0-027%-7.5
2-24Norfolk St. (285.6)MEACH0-042%-2.3
2-26Delaware St. (346.5)MEACH0-070%6.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland Eastern Shore's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland Eastern Shore's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland Eastern Shore.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC32.2926.140.0031.78-32.29-9.52
HowardMEAC0.004.420.0044.100.00-0.52
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.004.4166.6747.060.00-0.26
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.004.320.0047.560.00-0.21
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.004.250.0034.160.00-1.35
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.570.0021.300.00-1.47
Coppin St.MEAC0.002.540.0021.790.00-1.43
Florida A&MMEAC0.002.540.0018.080.00-1.62
Norfolk St.MEAC0.002.530.0042.300.00-0.39
Savannah St.MEAC0.002.470.0023.890.00-1.29
South Carolina St.MEAC0.002.470.0032.980.00-0.84
HamptonMEAC0.002.470.0047.550.00-0.12
Morgan St.MEAC0.002.4633.3334.170.00-0.78
GeorgetownBE25.002.08100.0056.5725.000.27
DuquesneA100.001.95100.0046.290.00-0.14
Virginia TechACC0.001.9275.0060.690.000.41
AmericanPat0.001.920.0029.380.00-0.79
CreightonBE0.001.92100.0066.310.000.63
LibertyBSth0.001.9233.3359.390.000.36
MarylandB1025.001.88100.0070.7325.000.78
Old DominionCUSA0.001.8875.0072.090.000.83
Jackson St.SWAC0.001.880.0043.730.00-0.24
DrakeMVC0.001.8550.0033.820.00-0.60
Iowa St.B120.001.8550.0036.610.00-0.50
PresbyterianBSth0.000.200.0016.000.00-0.14
JacksonvilleASun4.170.190.0029.62-4.17-0.08
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.19100.0059.250.000.04
George WashingtonA100.000.1966.6745.880.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.1750.0046.150.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.17100.0075.130.000.08
SouthernSWAC0.000.160.0044.630.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.1666.6728.760.00-0.07
XavierBE0.000.16100.0078.990.000.09
West VirginiaB120.000.1666.6771.200.000.07
ButlerBE3.120.1675.0052.361.560.01
DePaulBE0.000.1633.3331.290.00-0.06
MarquetteBE0.000.1650.0050.870.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.150.0057.520.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.140.0043.690.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.140.0036.490.00-0.04
George MasonA100.000.1375.0048.930.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.13100.0051.900.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.1366.6749.100.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.130.0037.120.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.130.0032.770.00-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.170.1325.0047.80-2.08-0.01
NavyPat0.000.1350.0052.870.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1333.3334.490.00-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.000.130.0047.690.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.130.0032.130.00-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.000.1350.0036.640.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.1375.0064.570.000.04
Seton HallBE0.000.13100.0067.950.000.05
St. John'sBE0.000.13100.0054.590.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.13100.0082.960.000.08
VirginiaACC0.000.13100.0074.140.000.06
IowaB100.000.13100.0058.250.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.1250.0054.450.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1033.3335.310.00-0.03
WinthropBSth0.000.100.0055.380.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.10100.0059.240.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1050.0048.410.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.1033.3335.210.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.1075.0076.250.000.05
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1066.6763.230.000.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1050.0035.330.00-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.100.0022.610.00-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.000.1025.0035.000.00-0.03
BaylorB120.000.10100.0061.110.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1050.0068.280.000.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.10100.0057.270.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.1050.0077.820.000.05
Texas TechB120.000.10100.0062.630.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1025.0040.490.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.10100.0054.960.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.100.0018.970.00-0.06
The CitadelSC0.000.1033.3330.460.00-0.04
BucknellPat3.120.100.0061.46-3.120.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.10100.0086.180.000.07
IndianaB100.000.1033.3341.220.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1033.3343.810.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.10100.0062.930.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.1066.6740.070.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1066.6763.220.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.1075.0055.040.000.01
PennIvy0.000.1033.3349.350.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.100.0051.690.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.09100.0060.400.000.02
RichmondA100.000.090.0030.280.00-0.04
StetsonASun0.000.0933.3333.620.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.09100.0062.240.000.02
TexasB120.000.09100.0063.830.000.03
UMBCAE0.000.090.0052.900.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0950.0046.810.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0933.3334.560.00-0.03
FordhamA100.000.0933.3336.170.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.09100.0074.500.000.04
Saint LouisA100.000.0966.6753.390.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.070.0051.410.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0733.3347.540.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.070.0017.060.00-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.070.0064.600.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.070.0023.170.00-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0725.0050.070.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0766.6756.330.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.070.0028.720.00-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.0725.0038.080.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0750.0066.710.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.070.0033.850.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.070.0046.410.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0050.360.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.070.0026.180.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.070.0023.910.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0666.6748.040.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0633.3357.840.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.06100.0063.590.000.02
Stony BrookAE3.120.060.0047.40-3.12-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3342.010.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0650.0053.620.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0675.0048.770.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3338.050.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.060.0045.640.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0650.0050.310.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0053.280.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.060.0024.970.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.06100.0053.460.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0048.790.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0633.3352.000.000.00
KansasB120.000.06100.0082.910.000.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0031.380.00-0.02
LafayettePat0.000.060.0021.970.00-0.04
LehighPat0.000.0666.6751.580.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.060.0038.210.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.06100.0061.710.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.06100.0071.700.000.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.060.0035.760.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.06100.0060.070.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0059.540.000.01
PurdueB100.000.06100.0085.360.000.05
TCUB120.000.06100.0061.150.000.01
UCLAP120.000.06100.0064.910.000.02
ValparaisoMVC0.000.06100.0059.760.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.06100.0041.780.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.06100.0038.710.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.060.0045.040.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0666.6766.970.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0625.0054.930.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3345.540.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0082.350.000.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.060.0036.070.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0675.0045.290.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0054.680.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0633.3348.480.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.06100.0046.880.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.0666.6766.590.000.02
VMISC0.000.0633.3327.450.00-0.03
DaytonA100.000.0666.6762.150.000.01
DukeACC0.000.06100.0083.580.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0066.990.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0450.0065.140.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0466.6753.670.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.040.0056.560.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.030.0040.830.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0333.3347.670.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.03100.0055.280.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.030.0024.440.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6755.210.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6750.670.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.030.0048.610.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0052.380.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.03100.0064.470.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0066.010.000.01
Little RockSB0.000.030.0037.050.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0350.0059.190.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0333.3346.880.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0350.0051.840.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.03100.0052.950.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.03100.0071.010.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.03100.0064.120.000.01
Wichita St.Amer0.000.03100.0082.290.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0035.610.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.007.670.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6768.790.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0052.860.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0048.680.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0366.6754.900.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.030.0044.950.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0350.0059.440.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0031.810.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.030.0013.450.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6768.320.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.03100.0060.010.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6757.890.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0048.110.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0366.6746.830.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0050.450.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0059.870.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3336.410.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0333.3329.980.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0366.6767.630.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0366.6761.500.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.030.0034.600.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3359.680.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.03100.0056.600.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.03100.0048.350.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0333.3346.410.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0350.0048.690.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.03100.0078.750.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0061.780.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.030.0039.010.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.03100.0071.560.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3338.350.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0366.6749.940.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0057.360.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3333.580.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0056.360.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3334.680.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0070.080.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0029.290.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.03100.0068.200.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0044.830.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.960.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0375.0071.830.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0375.0051.210.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.03100.0065.580.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0042.160.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.03100.0053.790.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0051.080.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3336.610.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0066.530.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0078.160.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3353.520.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0036.690.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0073.730.000.01
OregonP120.000.03100.0076.200.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0350.0073.230.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0366.6759.540.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0366.6756.400.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0030.910.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.03100.0069.350.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.03100.0064.720.000.01