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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Maryland Eastern Shore

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:247.5
Current RPI:225
Expected SOS:324
Current SOS:216
Current Record:5-8
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:1-1
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-8
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:5-10
Expected OOC RPI:207
Expected OOC SOS:190



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-11138.20.08%
19-12159.90.40%
18-13174.81.74%
17-14190.65.51%
16-15208.210.48%
15-16226.718.06%
14-17246.221.11%
13-18264.119.79%
12-19281.513.05%
11-20296.66.51%
10-21309.42.40%
9-22318.80.70%
8-23327.60.14%
7-24333.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland Eastern Shore.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Virginia Tech (210.7)ACCA71-46L0%0.0
11-17Villanova (14.8)BEA81-44L0%0.0
11-19Mount St. Mary's (235.7)NECA41-53W100%0.0
11-20VCU (17.1)A10A106-66L0%0.0
11-22St. Francis PA (124.8)NECA57-53L0%0.0
11-24Detroit (167.5)HorzN69-55L0%0.0
11-25Bucknell (249.1)PatN58-55L0%0.0
11-29Fordham (257.2)A10A66-72W100%0.0
12-2UMBC (327.9)AEH65-52W100%0.0
12-5North Carolina Central (142.9)MEACH63-68L0%0.0
12-8North Carolina A&T (332.0)MEACH69-58W100%0.0
12-13Navy (317.2)PatH53-46W100%0.0
12-19Old Dominion (43.7)CUSAA60-43L0%0.0
12-22St. Bonaventure (99.8)A10A0-09%-15.8
12-28Duquesne (236.3)A10A0-027%-7.0
12-30Tennessee Martin (148.4)OVCA0-015%-12.2
1-7NJIT (216.8)indA0-029%-6.5
1-12Morgan St. (305.7)MEACA0-041%-2.6
1-17Savannah St. (319.3)MEACH0-085%12.1
1-19South Carolina St. (280.6)MEACH0-076%8.2
1-24Bethune Cookman (338.6)MEACA0-057%2.1
1-26Florida A&M (349.1)MEACA0-080%9.9
1-31Coppin St. (334.0)MEACH0-090%15.3
2-2Howard (273.4)MEACA0-037%-3.9
2-7Hampton (250.4)MEACA0-032%-5.6
2-9Norfolk St. (159.2)MEACA0-019%-10.3
2-14Delaware St. (243.1)MEACH0-065%4.6
2-16Howard (273.4)MEACH0-065%4.5
2-21South Carolina St. (280.6)MEACA0-049%-0.2
2-28Delaware St. (243.1)MEACA0-037%-3.8
3-6Morgan St. (305.7)MEACH0-069%5.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland Eastern Shore's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland Eastern Shore's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland Eastern Shore.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC27.5426.1041.8250.49-4.510.25
HowardMEAC0.533.8230.0043.33-0.21-0.51
Delaware St.MEAC0.003.7736.3646.58-0.00-0.26
South Carolina St.MEAC0.003.7627.2735.20-0.00-1.11
Morgan St.MEAC0.193.7316.6734.58-0.13-1.15
HamptonMEAC0.002.2645.4548.95-0.00-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.212.2354.5558.790.020.39
Coppin St.MEAC0.002.230.0014.17-0.00-1.60
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.002.2118.1830.32-0.00-0.87
Savannah St.MEAC0.002.1818.1827.78-0.00-0.97
North Carolina A&TMEAC4.042.180.0024.54-4.04-1.11
Florida A&MMEAC0.002.150.0011.66-0.00-1.65
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.852.1544.4470.15-0.430.87
NJITind0.001.8741.6742.53-0.00-0.28
DuquesneA100.211.8437.5032.63-0.05-0.64
FordhamA103.851.8133.3328.12-1.28-0.79
St. Francis PANEC4.041.7650.0063.920.000.49
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.041.7537.5042.67-1.01-0.26
VCUA104.211.7570.0074.931.690.87
St. BonaventureA100.001.7377.7864.180.000.49
BucknellPat4.231.7233.3334.48-1.41-0.53
UMBCAE3.851.7020.0026.21-2.31-0.81
VillanovaBE4.211.70100.0082.404.211.10
NavyPat4.061.7022.2222.95-2.26-0.92
Old DominionCUSA4.181.6988.8981.703.251.07
Virginia TechACC3.851.6755.5635.970.43-0.47
Tennessee MartinOVC0.001.6466.6763.980.000.46
DetroitHorz3.851.6133.3346.16-1.28-0.12
RichmondA100.190.2560.0057.700.040.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.2330.0043.15-0.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.190.2266.6773.310.060.10
Central ConnecticutNEC0.170.2020.0027.29-0.10-0.09
DaytonA100.000.2080.0069.770.000.08
George WashingtonA100.170.1966.6765.500.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.170.1960.0043.160.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.160.1960.0033.270.03-0.06
AmericanPat0.430.1963.6463.240.120.05
LehighPat0.390.1944.4454.06-0.040.02
UMass LowellAE0.270.1850.0050.490.000.00
AlbanyAE0.410.1840.0055.01-0.080.02
MassachusettsA100.000.1754.5552.490.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.1760.0048.980.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.1788.8977.320.000.09
La SalleA100.170.1754.5552.730.020.01
TowsonCAA0.170.1760.0047.170.03-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.390.1633.3328.13-0.13-0.07
George MasonA100.190.1633.3330.21-0.06-0.07
Penn St.B100.660.1691.6755.310.550.02
VirginiaACC0.170.16100.0086.080.170.12
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1533.3345.04-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1550.0068.770.000.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1430.0039.59-0.00-0.03
MichiganB100.560.1450.0040.450.00-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.1457.1453.770.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.1466.6767.650.000.05
BinghamtonAE0.190.140.0011.24-0.19-0.11
Miami FLACC0.000.1481.8266.010.000.04
OregonP120.370.1470.0057.440.150.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1430.0041.69-0.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.210.1445.4537.60-0.02-0.03
MaineAE0.000.1211.1120.80-0.00-0.07
South AlabamaSB0.190.120.0031.89-0.19-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.1257.1470.520.000.05
BryantNEC0.000.1128.5745.89-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1137.5039.65-0.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1155.5660.980.000.02
WagnerNEC0.000.1112.5030.56-0.00-0.04
St. John'sBE0.270.1188.8965.170.210.03
RadfordBSth0.350.1155.5658.650.040.02
HoustonAmer0.000.1162.5041.790.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.320.1163.6467.210.090.04
Notre DameACC0.410.1191.6777.120.340.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1133.3349.35-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.170.110.008.56-0.17-0.09
PennIvy0.190.1137.5032.63-0.05-0.04
ArmyPat0.000.1177.7868.780.000.04
ColgatePat0.000.1120.0042.59-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.1142.8636.81-0.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.170.1160.0058.120.030.02
Northern IowaMVC0.370.1190.9183.090.300.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.0940.0043.04-0.04-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0927.2728.86-0.00-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0914.2915.15-0.00-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0918.1820.86-0.00-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.190.0936.3648.28-0.05-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.090.0015.00-0.00-0.06
CincinnatiAmer0.580.0870.0064.680.230.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0857.1457.100.000.01
SienaMAAC0.270.0833.3349.54-0.09-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.0810.0027.17-0.00-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.370.0860.0061.600.070.02
IllinoisB100.170.0875.0065.140.090.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0870.0051.780.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0830.0038.01-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0822.2236.53-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.0872.7367.960.000.03
CreightonBE0.190.0875.0052.140.100.00
TempleAmer0.170.0863.6456.430.050.01
The CitadelSC0.380.0814.2932.16-0.27-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0854.5564.070.000.02
ToledoMAC0.560.0863.6461.520.150.02
ProvidenceBE0.190.0875.0057.390.100.01
Seton HallBE0.210.0890.0067.380.170.03
LibertyBSth0.190.0825.0035.39-0.10-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0650.0046.690.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0622.2229.80-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0660.0065.120.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0612.5026.89-0.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0640.0046.19-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0037.570.00-0.01
MarylandB100.470.0690.9168.230.380.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0616.6743.20-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.170.0620.0025.85-0.10-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.350.069.0917.12-0.29-0.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.160.0633.3343.14-0.05-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0645.4545.10-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0655.5648.710.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0666.6762.580.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0666.6755.670.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0650.0054.170.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0690.0055.360.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0075.440.000.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0625.0044.27-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.170.0660.0056.150.030.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0670.0076.180.000.03
MonmouthMAAC0.270.0650.0058.370.000.01
BelmontOVC0.170.0663.6464.880.050.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0671.4363.770.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.190.0672.7374.850.090.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.008.60-0.00-0.05
LSUSEC0.190.0680.0063.910.120.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0654.5548.490.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0680.0072.200.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0043.93-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0636.3645.11-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0675.0077.010.000.03
HartfordAE0.000.0650.0050.620.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6754.470.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0069.200.000.02
IowaB100.170.0666.6759.420.060.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0610.0018.05-0.00-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0630.0031.48-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0650.0060.410.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0650.0057.820.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.190.0670.0060.920.080.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3355.24-0.000.01
UCFAmer0.190.0655.5635.900.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0681.8273.180.000.03
VermontAE0.000.0644.4457.69-0.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0660.0057.890.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0645.4543.23-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0627.2732.45-0.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.05100.0084.930.000.04
FIUCUSA0.000.0544.4450.41-0.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.190.0537.5034.64-0.05-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0560.0043.890.00-0.01
VMISC0.190.0533.3338.93-0.06-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0518.1822.49-0.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.0544.4451.07-0.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0516.6726.98-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0550.0053.250.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0562.5058.080.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0537.5046.38-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0550.0043.310.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0550.0051.710.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0554.5541.980.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0570.0059.220.000.01
XavierBE0.000.0572.7367.590.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.0560.0034.160.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0366.6761.820.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0342.8648.87-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.190.0360.0062.070.040.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6737.21-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6744.720.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0344.4449.14-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0350.0058.070.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0345.4555.13-0.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0066.220.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0377.7872.060.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0381.8263.330.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0363.6440.190.00-0.01
RutgersB100.210.0354.5532.590.02-0.01
TexasB120.210.0390.9179.980.170.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0333.3340.63-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0388.8955.860.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0027.67-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.210.03100.0082.630.210.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0325.0037.03-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.0390.0073.240.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.190.0375.0067.140.100.01
BradleyMVC0.160.0333.3334.04-0.05-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0377.7870.890.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0316.6733.39-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0355.5662.150.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0333.3337.91-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.050.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0363.6455.660.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.170.0333.3328.79-0.06-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.160.0375.0058.160.080.00
MercerSC0.000.0344.4444.02-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.190.0366.6767.300.060.01
MinnesotaB100.170.0380.0067.830.100.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0333.3361.74-0.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0312.5029.51-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0355.5655.280.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0337.5056.46-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8633.27-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0342.8637.71-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.160.0381.8282.250.100.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0340.0044.08-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3341.02-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0336.3648.18-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0354.5557.570.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0366.6766.010.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.190.0340.0041.32-0.04-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0320.0052.97-0.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6758.210.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.190.0387.5085.480.140.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0380.0073.540.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.190.0366.6767.930.060.01
FairfieldMAAC0.190.0340.0037.64-0.04-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0342.8649.02-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.190.0337.5050.31-0.050.00
Georgia St.SB0.190.0362.5072.070.050.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0372.7367.520.000.01
MaristMAAC0.190.039.0916.15-0.16-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0047.880.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0342.8626.99-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0330.0036.69-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.190.0357.1455.330.030.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0360.0071.280.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0337.5035.74-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.190.030.0028.43-0.19-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.600.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.090.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0380.0053.260.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.190.0330.0028.65-0.08-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0061.480.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.170.0355.5646.290.02-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0390.9170.080.000.01