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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Maryland Eastern Shore

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:345.0
Current RPI:345
Expected SOS:282
Current SOS:282
Current Record:2-26
Expected Record:2-26
Current Conf Record:2-15
Expected Conf Record:2-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-15
Current OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC RPI:327
Expected OOC SOS:126



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
2-26345.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland Eastern Shore.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Hawaii (210.0)BWA76-64L0%0.0
11-11Houston Baptist (310.0)GWCN55-70L0%0.0
11-12Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)SWACN62-52L0%0.0
11-16South Florida (156.0)BEA78-59L0%0.0
11-17Western Michigan (128.0)MACN51-68L0%0.0
11-18Loyola Chicago (223.0)HorzN62-46L0%0.0
12-1Delaware St. (263.0)MEACA76-66L0%0.0
12-5Maryland (73.0)ACCA100-68L0%0.0
12-8Cincinnati (50.0)BEA92-60L0%0.0
12-17Connecticut (49.0)BEA84-50L0%0.0
12-22Ohio (67.0)MACA93-57L0%0.0
1-3American (278.0)PatA63-49L0%0.0
1-12Norfolk St. (178.0)MEACH58-63L0%0.0
1-19Delaware St. (263.0)MEACH58-53W100%0.0
1-26Florida A&M (331.0)MEACA55-54L0%0.0
1-28Bethune Cookman (277.0)MEACA58-57L0%0.0
2-2North Carolina A&T (213.0)MEACH44-46L0%0.0
2-4North Carolina Central (155.0)MEACH54-82L0%0.0
2-9Howard (334.0)MEACA63-44L0%0.0
2-11Norfolk St. (178.0)MEACA85-63L0%0.0
2-16Morgan St. (236.0)MEACH55-87L0%0.0
2-18Coppin St. (313.0)MEACH64-62W100%0.0
2-20Hampton (287.0)MEACH59-63L0%0.0
2-25Howard (334.0)MEACH45-49L0%0.0
3-2Morgan St. (236.0)MEACA58-45L0%0.0
3-4Coppin St. (313.0)MEACA63-60L0%0.0
3-7Savannah St. (166.0)MEACA71-54L0%0.0
3-11Savannah St. (166.0)MEACN59-44L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland Eastern Shore's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland Eastern Shore's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland Eastern Shore.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC26.1626.165.085.08-23.50-23.50
Delaware St.MEAC4.294.2941.3841.38-0.74-0.74
Morgan St.MEAC4.294.2950.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC4.234.2314.8114.81-2.98-2.98
Coppin St.MEAC4.204.2020.6920.69-2.46-2.46
Norfolk St.MEAC4.204.2063.3363.331.121.12
Savannah St.MEAC4.124.1251.7251.720.140.14
HamptonMEAC2.632.6343.3343.33-0.35-0.35
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.572.5751.5251.520.080.08
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.512.5135.4835.48-0.73-0.73
Florida A&MMEAC2.362.3617.8617.86-1.52-1.52
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.362.3666.6766.670.790.79
South FloridaBE1.931.9336.6736.67-0.51-0.51
CincinnatiBE1.901.9065.6265.620.590.59
Western MichiganMAC1.901.9060.0060.000.380.38
ConnecticutBE1.901.9065.5265.520.590.59
AmericanPat1.881.8831.0331.03-0.71-0.71
OhioMAC1.871.8771.8871.880.820.82
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.851.8551.7251.720.060.06
HawaiiBW1.851.8551.7251.720.060.06
Houston BaptistGWC1.851.8537.0437.04-0.48-0.48
Loyola ChicagoHorz1.841.8444.8344.83-0.19-0.19
MarylandACC1.841.8463.6463.640.500.50
South Carolina St.MEAC0.750.7514.2914.29-0.53-0.53
PittsburghBE0.260.2675.0075.000.130.13
Central FloridaCUSA0.240.2462.0762.070.060.06
MarshallCUSA0.230.2338.7138.71-0.05-0.05
MarquetteBE0.200.2074.1974.190.100.10
AkronMAC0.200.2080.6580.650.120.12
Seton HallBE0.200.2045.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyGWC0.190.1935.7135.71-0.05-0.05
RutgersBE0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.170.1723.3323.33-0.09-0.09
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.170.1770.9770.970.070.07
WagnerNEC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.140.1423.3323.33-0.08-0.08
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.140.1480.6580.650.090.09
ProvidenceBE0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
Kent St.MAC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.GWC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.120.1248.0048.00-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
IowaB100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Arizona St.P120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
LibertyBSth0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
ColgatePat0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1271.4371.430.050.05
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
ToledoMAC0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
LouisvilleBE0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
VillanovaBE0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Notre DameBE0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
New Orleansind0.090.0918.1818.18-0.06-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.090.0968.9768.970.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Michigan St.B100.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
OregonP120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
PacificBW0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Florida AtlanticSB0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.090.0919.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
LafayettePat0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
St. John'sBE0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
SyracuseBE0.090.0974.2974.290.040.04
IllinoisB100.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Boston UniversityAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
Cal PolyBW0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
GramblingSWAC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Florida InternationalSB0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
CornellIvy0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
IndianaB100.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Middle TennesseeSB0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
Ohio St.B100.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Penn St.B100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
St. LouisA100.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
TexasB120.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
Miami FLACC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Stony BrookAE0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
NC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
OaklandSum0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
WoffordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.060.0653.8553.850.000.00
IonaMAAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCAA0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas San AntonioWAC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Virginia Military InstBSth0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
HoustonCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
KansasB120.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MemphisCUSA0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
OklahomaB120.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
XavierA100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Long IslandNEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MonmouthNEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01