live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Maryland Eastern Shore

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:278.0
Current RPI:278
Expected SOS:320
Current SOS:320
Current Record:12-20
Expected Record:12-20
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-8
Current OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:247
Expected OOC SOS:36



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-20278.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland Eastern Shore.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11George Washington (102.0)A10A75-71L0%0.0
11-13UMBC (165.0)AEH73-77L0%0.0
11-15Boston College (219.0)ACCA73-57L0%0.0
11-20Wichita St. (32.0)MVCA116-79L0%0.0
11-23Colorado St. (66.0)MWCA76-65L0%0.0
11-27Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAA74-53L0%0.0
11-30Southeastern Louisiana (248.0)SlndA85-75L0%0.0
12-7Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCA75-59L0%0.0
12-10UCF (68.0)AmerA76-58L0%0.0
12-17Michigan (25.0)B10A98-49L0%0.0
12-19American (310.0)PatA61-58L0%0.0
12-21UTEP (222.0)CUSAA66-71W100%0.0
12-22Akron (58.0)MACN60-76L0%0.0
1-9North Carolina A&T (350.0)MEACA88-99W100%0.0
1-11North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACA69-52L0%0.0
1-14Howard (337.0)MEACH66-74L0%0.0
1-21Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACA79-82W100%0.0
1-23Florida A&M (349.0)MEACA79-86W100%0.0
1-28South Carolina St. (299.0)MEACH92-69W100%0.0
1-30Savannah St. (279.0)MEACH82-87L0%0.0
2-1Hampton (283.0)MEACA66-65L0%0.0
2-4Coppin St. (336.0)MEACH78-57W100%0.0
2-11Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACA75-69L0%0.0
2-13Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACH82-81W100%0.0
2-18North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACH69-82L0%0.0
2-20North Carolina A&T (350.0)MEACH106-95W100%0.0
2-25Delaware St. (332.0)MEACA64-65W100%0.0
2-27Howard (337.0)MEACA79-69L0%0.0
3-2Morgan St. (326.0)MEACH67-66W100%0.0
3-6North Carolina A&T (350.0)MEACN74-67W100%0.0
3-9Hampton (283.0)MEACN66-68W100%0.0
3-10North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACN79-49L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland Eastern Shore's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland Eastern Shore's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland Eastern Shore.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC26.2926.2942.8642.86-3.76-3.76
North Carolina CentralMEAC5.345.3470.3770.372.182.18
North Carolina A&TMEAC5.265.263.703.70-4.87-4.87
HowardMEAC3.913.9120.0020.00-2.35-2.35
Bethune CookmanMEAC3.783.7828.5728.57-1.62-1.62
HamptonMEAC3.683.6842.3142.31-0.57-0.57
Norfolk St.MEAC2.362.3646.6746.67-0.16-0.16
Delaware St.MEAC2.332.3327.5927.59-1.04-1.04
Coppin St.MEAC2.272.2724.1424.14-1.18-1.18
South Carolina St.MEAC2.252.2532.1432.14-0.80-0.80
Florida A&MMEAC2.242.2418.5218.52-1.41-1.41
Morgan St.MEAC2.192.1946.4346.43-0.16-0.16
Savannah St.MEAC2.172.1738.4638.46-0.50-0.50
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.671.6744.8344.83-0.17-0.17
Virginia TechACC1.661.6667.7467.740.590.59
Louisiana TechCUSA1.641.6466.6766.670.550.55
UTEPCUSA1.641.6446.6746.67-0.11-0.11
UCFAmer1.641.6464.5264.520.480.48
George WashingtonA101.641.6456.2556.250.200.20
MichiganB101.641.6467.6567.650.580.58
AmericanPat1.641.6424.1424.14-0.85-0.85
AkronMAC1.611.6175.0075.000.810.81
Wichita St.MVC1.611.6187.5087.501.211.21
UMBCAE1.611.6155.5655.560.180.18
Colorado St.MWC1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
Boston CollegeACC1.611.6125.8125.81-0.78-0.78
East CarolinaAmer0.290.2945.4545.45-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.210.2140.0040.00-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.190.1946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.180.1862.5062.500.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.180.1855.8855.880.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.1537.0437.04-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
Notre DameACC0.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
Saint LouisA100.150.1536.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
RiderMAAC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.130.1321.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Georgia TechACC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1383.3383.330.080.08
RiceCUSA0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
ClemsonACC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
MassachusettsA100.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
New HampshireAE0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Kansas St.B120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
StetsonASun0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1019.2319.23-0.06-0.06
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
MemphisAmer0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
LSUSEC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
UTSACUSA0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
MarylandB100.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
SMUAmer0.100.1088.2488.240.070.07
Florida St.ACC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
HarvardIvy0.100.1061.5461.540.020.02
VCUA100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
WisconsinB100.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
NebraskaB100.090.0936.6736.67-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
HartfordAE0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
MaineAE0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
NavyPat0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
TowsonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
PacificWCC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
IowaB100.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
BucknellPat0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
FIUCUSA0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
DuquesneA100.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Penn St.B100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
TempleAmer0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
BradleyMVC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
PurdueB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Michigan St.B100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
IllinoisB100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
AlbanyAE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
WinthropBSth0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB100.040.0472.7372.730.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
DaytonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0296.9796.970.020.02
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MercerSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
TexasB120.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02