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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Maryland Eastern Shore

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:276.0
Current RPI:275
Expected SOS:276
Current SOS:227
Current Record:7-17
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:5-5
Expected Conf Record:8-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-8
Current OOC Record:2-12
Expected OOC Record:2-12
Expected OOC RPI:240
Expected OOC SOS:59



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-17231.24.07%
11-18253.119.64%
10-19272.937.24%
9-20290.829.13%
8-21306.89.13%
7-22320.50.78%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland Eastern Shore.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Kansas St. (61.6)B12A80-53L0%0.0
11-15Missouri (221.1)SECA73-55L0%0.0
11-21Wofford (188.8)SCA73-63L0%0.0
11-24Fairfield (170.5)MAACH74-113L0%0.0
11-27St. Francis PA (238.2)NECH70-57W100%0.0
12-1Georgetown (70.3)BEA68-49L0%0.0
12-5North Carolina Central (320.3)MEACA70-59L0%0.0
12-7North Carolina A&T (334.5)MEACA80-74L0%0.0
12-9Michigan St. (19.0)B10A78-35L0%0.0
12-12Maryland (6.0)B10A77-56L0%0.0
12-18Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAA77-47L0%0.0
12-20American (260.0)PatA64-79W100%0.0
12-29Saint Joseph's (33.2)A10A78-68L0%0.0
12-31UMBC (320.1)AEA89-75L0%0.0
1-2Pittsburgh (47.2)ACCA92-58L0%0.0
1-6Columbia (125.6)IvyA81-75L0%0.0
1-11Morgan St. (332.1)MEACH69-65W100%0.0
1-16Savannah St. (328.8)MEACA68-61L0%0.0
1-18South Carolina St. (205.4)MEACA68-63L0%0.0
1-23Bethune Cookman (301.5)MEACH74-72W100%0.0
1-30Coppin St. (326.4)MEACA81-83W100%0.0
2-1Howard (297.5)MEACH85-67W100%0.0
2-6Hampton (192.7)MEACH73-70W100%0.0
2-8Norfolk St. (206.6)MEACH70-76L0%0.0
2-13Delaware St. (349.1)MEACA0-068%5.0
2-15Howard (297.5)MEACA0-036%-3.8
2-20South Carolina St. (205.4)MEACH0-050%0.1
2-27Delaware St. (349.1)MEACH0-086%11.7
3-3Morgan St. (332.1)MEACA0-038%-3.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland Eastern Shore's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland Eastern Shore's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland Eastern Shore.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC26.1026.1132.9538.69-8.90-5.91
Delaware St.MEAC0.434.019.0911.43-0.35-3.09
HowardMEAC2.514.0038.1039.46-0.60-0.84
South Carolina St.MEAC2.464.0050.0052.580.000.21
Morgan St.MEAC2.423.9720.0025.50-1.45-1.95
HamptonMEAC2.562.4061.9063.680.610.66
Norfolk St.MEAC2.512.3740.9148.89-0.46-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC2.502.3615.0021.50-1.75-1.35
Savannah St.MEAC2.512.3135.0035.19-0.75-0.68
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.422.2833.3337.43-0.81-0.57
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.472.2626.0930.82-1.18-0.87
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.362.2121.0530.55-1.37-0.86
Old DominionCUSA2.221.9054.5561.550.200.44
ColumbiaIvy2.311.9065.0063.980.690.53
Kansas St.B122.271.8859.0956.910.410.26
MissouriSEC2.221.8131.8228.01-0.81-0.80
MarylandB102.211.8186.9683.141.641.20
AmericanPat2.181.7931.8233.05-0.79-0.61
UMBCAE2.131.7920.8323.87-1.24-0.93
St. Francis PANEC2.171.7852.3851.290.100.05
Saint Joseph'sA102.181.7881.8278.211.391.01
WoffordSC2.181.7840.9144.30-0.40-0.20
FairfieldMAAC2.131.7552.1752.560.090.09
GeorgetownBE2.131.7554.1751.260.180.04
Michigan St.B102.131.7579.1780.981.241.09
PittsburghACC2.081.7271.4366.480.890.57
Florida A&MMEAC0.390.5325.0025.08-0.19-0.26
PurdueB100.270.2380.0077.930.160.13
WagnerNEC0.190.1863.6465.020.050.05
DuquesneA100.180.1860.8756.430.040.02
PrincetonIvy0.180.1872.2274.700.080.09
Ohio St.B100.130.1760.0055.500.030.02
NorthwesternB100.270.1764.0062.060.070.04
CornellIvy0.190.1542.1140.21-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.140.1535.0038.50-0.04-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.190.1542.8642.05-0.03-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.180.1540.0045.50-0.04-0.01
RiderMAAC0.180.1540.0042.11-0.04-0.02
PennIvy0.050.1538.8937.63-0.01-0.04
RutgersB100.130.1521.7420.37-0.07-0.09
MichiganB100.090.1469.5766.220.030.05
North CarolinaACC0.180.1483.3378.390.120.08
Rhode IslandA100.220.1458.3357.170.040.02
NiagaraMAAC0.180.1424.0024.55-0.09-0.07
WisconsinB100.130.1460.8755.830.030.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1352.0050.250.010.00
AkronMAC0.140.1282.6181.140.090.08
TowsonCAA0.140.1265.2259.770.040.02
William & MaryCAA0.140.1271.4369.830.060.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.1282.6181.120.060.08
UC RiversideBW0.050.1245.8341.65-0.00-0.02
LehighPat0.190.1236.3639.78-0.05-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.140.1222.7324.97-0.07-0.06
BucknellPat0.180.1254.5558.160.020.02
IowaB100.180.1282.6180.550.120.07
MarshallCUSA0.140.1250.0051.210.000.00
MassachusettsA100.090.1240.9139.33-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.090.1271.4368.940.040.04
BrownIvy0.140.1231.5831.07-0.05-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.130.1234.7837.17-0.04-0.03
NebraskaB100.090.1254.1751.880.010.00
Virginia TechACC0.140.1252.0048.860.01-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.140.1281.8282.630.090.08
TCUB120.000.1245.8339.34-0.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.130.1120.8324.09-0.08-0.06
FloridaSEC0.130.1166.6766.320.040.04
CharlotteCUSA0.180.1134.7840.91-0.05-0.02
CampbellBSth0.100.0928.5729.65-0.04-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.0947.8348.87-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.140.0958.3358.310.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.0959.0959.420.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0954.5550.110.000.00
UtahP120.050.0969.5767.500.020.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0925.0030.01-0.05-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0972.0071.540.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0950.0049.830.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.0928.0030.73-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.100.0983.3378.470.060.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.0936.3636.15-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0943.4841.96-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0934.7837.05-0.03-0.02
BryantNEC0.140.0925.0026.39-0.07-0.04
RadfordBSth0.090.0950.0051.300.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.140.0965.2260.590.040.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0921.7423.34-0.03-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.090.0952.1751.510.000.00
The CitadelSC0.090.0931.8230.06-0.03-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0928.5731.30-0.04-0.03
BaylorB120.090.0972.7366.400.040.03
CreightonBE0.130.0964.0062.090.040.02
FordhamA100.140.0955.0052.190.010.00
Iowa St.B120.090.0973.9170.050.050.04
NJITASun0.140.0954.1755.280.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.090.0931.5831.75-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0927.2731.05-0.04-0.03
YaleIvy0.090.0973.6874.680.040.04
ColgatePat0.130.0943.4844.80-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.090.0979.1776.070.050.05
NavyPat0.090.0962.5062.370.020.02
SyracuseACC0.090.0966.6762.530.030.02
TempleAmer0.050.0963.6459.810.010.02
AlbanyAE0.130.0976.0076.310.070.05
DePaulBE0.130.0933.3334.01-0.04-0.03
New HampshireAE0.090.0957.1453.990.010.01
RichmondA100.140.0954.5554.470.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0986.3679.110.070.05
VCUA100.140.0973.9173.970.060.04
West VirginiaB120.140.0979.1778.090.080.05
MonmouthMAAC0.130.0980.0081.160.080.05
BuffaloMAC0.130.0856.5256.990.020.01
IllinoisB100.090.0845.8344.13-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.090.0850.0046.740.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.140.0859.0955.300.020.01
KansasB120.090.0882.6179.190.060.05
MississippiSEC0.090.0862.5058.930.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.080.0875.0070.990.040.04
St. John'sBE0.120.0825.0023.40-0.06-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0878.2677.860.050.05
VillanovaBE0.090.0887.5086.910.070.06
XavierBE0.090.0887.5081.810.070.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0610.0013.14-0.07-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.050.0660.8757.190.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0666.6767.700.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0628.5728.55-0.02-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0613.0413.55-0.07-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0647.6249.35-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0663.6460.920.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0650.0051.920.000.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0684.2181.660.030.04
High PointBSth0.050.0655.0057.460.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0634.7833.09-0.01-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0637.5043.38-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0645.4554.14-0.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0642.8639.22-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0640.0043.44-0.02-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.0671.4368.760.040.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0643.4843.78-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.090.0670.8367.790.040.02
ArmyPat0.050.0654.1754.580.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0654.1755.600.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0686.9686.660.070.04
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0661.9059.540.000.01
FurmanSC0.050.0654.1754.060.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0639.1338.31-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0621.7423.00-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0630.0029.27-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.050.0669.5769.020.020.02
SamfordSC0.090.0641.6742.60-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0623.8127.67-0.02-0.03
VMISC0.090.0615.0016.72-0.06-0.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0633.3335.06-0.03-0.02
ToledoMAC0.090.0660.8762.040.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0659.0953.250.020.00
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0629.1726.74-0.04-0.03
DavidsonA100.050.0660.0057.940.010.01
DukeACC0.040.0675.0071.800.020.03
LSUSEC0.050.0665.2260.260.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0650.0049.090.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0652.1751.920.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0656.5259.860.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.040.0643.4840.46-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.040.0644.0045.31-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.090.0660.8760.720.020.01
MaristMAAC0.040.0621.7424.19-0.02-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.040.0640.9143.29-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.040.0664.0064.140.010.02
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0673.9172.480.040.03
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0654.1750.940.010.00
IndianaB100.000.0679.1774.040.000.03
MinnesotaB100.040.0626.0927.79-0.02-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0650.0053.100.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0624.0025.67-0.05-0.03
ButlerBE0.040.0669.5767.150.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0622.7327.22-0.05-0.03
HartfordAE0.040.0625.0026.75-0.02-0.03
La SalleA100.050.0620.0020.46-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.080.0633.3333.13-0.03-0.02
MarquetteBE0.040.0662.5056.050.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0633.3333.04-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.090.0686.9682.650.070.04
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0645.8342.26-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0636.3633.54-0.01-0.02
Seton HallBE0.040.0673.9169.970.020.02
TexasB120.050.0666.6762.200.020.01
Texas TechB120.050.0659.0953.180.010.00
UMass LowellAE0.040.0634.7835.65-0.01-0.02
VermontAE0.040.0652.0054.860.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0645.4546.24-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0628.5729.66-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0365.2262.830.020.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0340.9143.54-0.01-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0340.0038.98-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0369.5766.580.020.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0350.0054.200.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0320.0022.32-0.03-0.02
OregonP120.050.0382.6179.220.030.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.0019.68-0.03-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0361.9065.300.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0326.0929.17-0.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0369.5765.330.020.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0342.8646.35-0.01-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0318.1821.15-0.03-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0390.9186.110.040.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0365.0063.410.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0337.5040.54-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0360.0060.080.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0347.6245.85-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0352.3854.080.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0375.0076.250.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.890.020.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0352.1751.910.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0382.6177.520.030.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0350.0052.370.000.00
OhioMAC0.050.0363.6461.420.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0325.0026.86-0.02-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0345.0049.25-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.19-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0372.7371.650.020.01
UCFAmer0.050.0350.0044.860.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0330.4332.36-0.02-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0321.7422.74-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0315.0018.09-0.03-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0363.6462.150.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.040.0322.7323.24-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0379.1778.350.030.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0339.1335.43-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.040.0363.6462.590.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0350.0045.840.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.040.0330.0034.55-0.02-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0352.3850.420.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0386.9682.300.000.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0313.6418.15-0.03-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0340.9145.30-0.01-0.00
George MasonA100.050.0333.3333.68-0.02-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0378.2674.410.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0357.8956.090.010.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0375.0072.610.020.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.410.020.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0356.5256.320.010.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0347.3749.93-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.040.0345.8346.64-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0328.5726.98-0.02-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0360.0057.610.010.00
OaklandHorz0.040.0368.0067.980.010.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0341.6741.23-0.01-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5832.01-0.02-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.050.0382.6179.370.030.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.040.0365.2266.200.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.040.0376.1973.420.020.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0313.6413.63-0.00-0.02