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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Maryland Eastern Shore

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:323.5
Current RPI:71
Expected SOS:343
Current SOS:58
Current Record:1-3
Expected Record:9-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-13
Current OOC Record:1-3
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:303
Expected OOC SOS:249



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-13188.30.03%
16-14197.40.09%
15-15234.70.27%
14-16251.61.16%
13-17270.43.09%
12-18286.95.84%
11-19302.610.37%
10-20315.915.49%
9-21326.917.83%
8-22334.917.01%
7-23340.713.43%
6-24344.99.23%
5-25347.54.27%
4-26348.81.43%
3-27350.00.35%
2-28350.30.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland Eastern Shore.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Virginia Tech (184.3)ACCA71-46L0%0.0
11-17Villanova (53.5)BEA81-44L0%0.0
11-19Mount St. Mary's (288.8)NECA41-53W100%0.0
11-20VCU (21.2)A10A106-66L0%0.0
11-22St. Francis PA (206.1)NECA0-013%-13.4
11-24Detroit (133.3)HorzN0-09%-16.2
11-29Fordham (234.6)A10A0-013%-13.7
12-2UMBC (305.2)AEH0-051%0.4
12-5North Carolina Central (171.3)MEACH0-019%-10.6
12-8North Carolina A&T (329.4)MEACH0-065%4.5
12-13Navy (270.8)PatH0-042%-2.3
12-19Old Dominion (71.0)CUSAA0-02%-23.5
12-22St. Bonaventure (157.3)A10A0-06%-18.6
12-28Duquesne (169.4)A10A0-07%-18.0
12-30Tennessee Martin (295.0)OVCA0-027%-7.4
1-7NJIT (306.5)indA0-033%-5.3
1-12Morgan St. (274.9)MEACA0-021%-9.8
1-17Savannah St. (275.2)MEACH0-049%-0.4
1-19South Carolina St. (295.8)MEACH0-052%0.7
1-24Bethune Cookman (296.7)MEACA0-024%-8.7
1-26Florida A&M (348.5)MEACA0-055%1.5
1-31Coppin St. (265.1)MEACH0-048%-0.5
2-2Howard (311.0)MEACA0-029%-6.8
2-7Hampton (201.2)MEACA0-012%-14.2
2-9Norfolk St. (225.2)MEACA0-015%-12.5
2-14Delaware St. (249.0)MEACH0-040%-2.9
2-16Howard (311.0)MEACH0-051%0.4
2-21South Carolina St. (295.8)MEACA0-029%-6.5
2-28Delaware St. (249.0)MEACA0-020%-10.1
3-6Morgan St. (274.9)MEACH0-042%-2.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland Eastern Shore's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland Eastern Shore's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland Eastern Shore.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC35.4226.1243.7532.80-4.43-8.99
HowardMEAC0.003.960.0032.16-0.00-1.41
Delaware St.MEAC0.003.9033.3341.56-0.00-0.66
South Carolina St.MEAC0.003.890.0029.81-0.00-1.57
Morgan St.MEAC0.003.870.0035.13-0.00-1.15
HamptonMEAC0.002.3533.3358.28-0.000.39
Norfolk St.MEAC0.002.320.0046.85-0.00-0.15
Coppin St.MEAC0.002.310.0030.94-0.00-0.88
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.002.290.0045.34-0.00-0.21
Savannah St.MEAC0.002.2633.3335.48-0.00-0.66
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.002.260.0022.75-0.00-1.23
Florida A&MMEAC0.002.230.0015.71-0.00-1.53
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.002.220.0068.80-0.000.84
NJITind0.001.9333.3327.21-0.00-0.88
DuquesneA100.001.900.0050.24-0.000.01
FordhamA100.001.870.0032.78-0.00-0.64
St. Francis PANEC0.001.820.0050.32-0.000.01
VCUA1012.501.81100.0073.9012.500.87
Mount St. Mary'sNEC12.501.790.0034.03-12.50-0.57
St. BonaventureA100.001.7850.0048.830.00-0.04
UMBCAE0.001.760.0035.13-0.00-0.52
Old DominionCUSA0.001.75100.0076.410.000.93
VillanovaBE12.501.73100.0066.2412.500.56
Virginia TechACC12.501.72100.0039.3512.50-0.37
NavyPat0.001.700.0031.28-0.00-0.64
Tennessee MartinOVC0.001.7050.0034.460.00-0.53
DetroitHorz0.001.670.0054.13-0.000.14
RichmondA100.000.2650.0062.660.000.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.240.0054.88-0.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.23100.0053.060.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.210.0035.33-0.00-0.06
DaytonA100.000.2066.6769.310.000.08
Saint LouisA100.000.20100.0066.070.000.07
George WashingtonA100.000.2066.6777.370.000.11
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.2033.3333.43-0.00-0.07
UMass LowellAE0.000.1833.3331.34-0.00-0.07
MarquetteBE0.000.1850.0054.250.000.02
MassachusettsA100.000.17100.0063.880.000.05
TowsonCAA0.000.1766.6745.850.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.17100.0048.380.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.1725.0022.09-0.00-0.10
La SalleA100.000.17100.0055.910.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.17100.0076.260.000.09
AlbanyAE0.000.1550.0063.960.000.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.150.0043.82-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.15100.0063.380.000.04
AmericanPat0.000.1566.6764.270.000.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1533.3338.44-0.00-0.03
LehighPat2.080.150.0035.69-2.08-0.04
Miami FLACC0.000.14100.0073.200.000.07
Penn St.B100.000.1475.0045.210.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.120.0016.80-0.00-0.08
South AlabamaSB0.000.120.0038.65-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.120.0062.16-0.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.12100.0052.280.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.12100.0050.220.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1250.0054.170.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.1233.3344.86-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.1250.0054.540.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1250.0036.810.00-0.03
HoustonAmer0.000.12100.0065.750.000.04
Loyola MDPat0.000.1266.6738.520.00-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.12100.0046.320.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.12100.0070.690.000.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1250.0036.850.00-0.03
WagnerNEC0.000.120.0043.90-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.12100.0069.430.000.05
BucknellPat2.080.1233.3346.82-0.69-0.01
PennIvy0.000.120.0025.28-0.00-0.06
BinghamtonAE0.000.110.0039.15-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.110.0033.61-0.00-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.1150.0041.490.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.1175.0070.210.000.05
Northern IowaMVC0.000.11100.0068.990.000.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.100.0034.26-0.00-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.09100.0060.630.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0933.3330.78-0.00-0.04
LafayettePat0.000.0966.6762.890.000.02
MichiganB100.000.09100.0066.870.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.09100.0064.850.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0933.3336.31-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.090.0027.72-0.00-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.090.0029.61-0.00-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0933.3357.87-0.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.09100.0070.040.000.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.0966.6751.090.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0950.0045.610.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.09100.0055.810.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.09100.0065.630.000.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.090.0057.16-0.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.09100.0054.180.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0966.6751.250.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.090.0027.74-0.00-0.04
StetsonASun0.000.090.0032.16-0.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.09100.0062.680.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.0966.6760.730.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.08100.0057.560.000.01
MarylandB100.000.06100.0063.680.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0033.39-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0633.3335.37-0.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0029.88-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0072.260.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0035.17-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.060.0041.63-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.060.0048.48-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0066.050.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.060.0032.47-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0633.3338.27-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0650.0021.230.00-0.03
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0057.810.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.060.0036.43-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0625.0057.21-0.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0640.0041.64-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.060.0046.93-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0065.86-0.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0666.6763.800.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0666.6756.820.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.060.0033.64-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.06100.0069.720.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0633.3354.24-0.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0033.70-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.06100.0051.000.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0650.0031.730.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.06100.0061.810.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0650.0043.560.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0666.6752.470.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0056.460.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0043.330.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0056.600.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0650.0052.540.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.060.0036.14-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0072.160.000.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0054.580.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.0033.43-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0666.6763.580.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0058.420.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.06100.0043.610.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0650.0067.840.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0059.350.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3358.87-0.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0045.610.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.060.0015.68-0.00-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0079.370.000.03
VMISC0.000.0650.0043.730.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0074.210.000.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0633.3344.98-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0030.14-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0650.0040.300.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0049.560.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0666.6738.630.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0675.0054.690.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6766.940.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0041.70-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0049.10-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0666.6751.360.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0070.600.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3363.09-0.000.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0062.910.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0027.23-0.00-0.03
VermontAE0.000.0650.0066.020.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0633.3344.93-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0037.800.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0650.0056.300.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0064.920.000.02
XavierBE0.000.06100.0076.430.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0015.85-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0350.0057.440.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0044.57-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.030.0054.04-0.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.03100.0051.030.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.030.0037.20-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0040.22-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0068.940.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0061.540.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.030.0025.34-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0033.60-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0075.400.000.02
DenverSum0.000.0350.0062.440.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0050.900.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0063.410.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0034.26-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6757.590.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.030.0058.17-0.000.00
IndianaB100.000.03100.0063.850.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6747.240.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0366.6755.230.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0067.860.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0366.6768.330.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6771.300.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.030.0048.03-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0045.530.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0073.590.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0333.3349.79-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3349.73-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0350.0036.270.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0055.220.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.03100.0044.620.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0052.770.000.00
TexasB120.000.03100.0084.130.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0029.380.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.27-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0033.930.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.030.0043.40-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0040.180.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.630.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.030.0028.13-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0048.390.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0084.100.000.02
ArizonaP123.120.03100.0068.973.120.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.030.0038.12-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6759.850.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.03100.0057.010.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0034.69-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0027.11-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0052.770.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0350.0063.730.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0333.3365.68-0.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0350.0028.860.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0047.54-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0350.0054.660.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0366.6748.270.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0056.150.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0038.98-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0041.690.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0086.380.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0052.690.000.00
LibertyBSth3.120.0350.0041.040.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0059.140.000.01
TennesseeSEC2.080.0350.0044.000.00-0.00
ToledoMAC2.080.0333.3363.82-0.690.01
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0068.580.000.01