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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Maryland Eastern Shore

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:307.0
Current RPI:307
Expected SOS:313
Current SOS:313
Current Record:9-22
Expected Record:9-22
Current Conf Record:7-10
Expected Conf Record:7-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-12
Current OOC Record:2-12
Expected OOC Record:2-12
Expected OOC RPI:254
Expected OOC SOS:79



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-22307.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland Eastern Shore.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Kansas St. (92.0)B12A80-53L0%0.0
11-15Missouri (222.0)SECA73-55L0%0.0
11-21Wofford (199.0)SCA73-63L0%0.0
11-24Fairfield (142.0)MAACH74-113L0%0.0
11-27St. Francis PA (266.0)NECH70-57W100%0.0
12-1Georgetown (106.0)BEA68-49L0%0.0
12-5North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACA70-59L0%0.0
12-7North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACA80-74L0%0.0
12-9Michigan St. (12.0)B10A78-35L0%0.0
12-12Maryland (14.0)B10A77-56L0%0.0
12-18Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAA77-47L0%0.0
12-20American (231.0)PatA64-79W100%0.0
12-29Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10A78-68L0%0.0
12-31UMBC (335.0)AEA89-75L0%0.0
1-2Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCA92-58L0%0.0
1-6Columbia (132.0)IvyA81-75L0%0.0
1-11Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH69-65W100%0.0
1-16Savannah St. (277.0)MEACA68-61L0%0.0
1-18South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACA68-63L0%0.0
1-23Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH74-72W100%0.0
1-30Coppin St. (326.0)MEACA81-83W100%0.0
2-1Howard (328.0)MEACH85-67W100%0.0
2-6Hampton (155.0)MEACH73-70W100%0.0
2-8Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACH70-76L0%0.0
2-13Delaware St. (345.0)MEACA75-71L0%0.0
2-16Howard (328.0)MEACA77-74L0%0.0
2-20South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACH58-62L0%0.0
2-22Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH80-81L0%0.0
2-27Delaware St. (345.0)MEACH74-65W100%0.0
3-3Morgan St. (327.0)MEACA71-80W100%0.0
3-8Morgan St. (327.0)MEACN58-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland Eastern Shore's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland Eastern Shore's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland Eastern Shore.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC26.1426.1431.7131.71-9.56-9.56
Morgan St.MEAC5.355.3525.9325.93-2.57-2.57
South Carolina St.MEAC3.853.8551.7251.720.130.13
HowardMEAC3.793.7932.1432.14-1.35-1.35
Delaware St.MEAC3.793.7914.2914.29-2.71-2.71
HamptonMEAC2.452.4568.9768.970.930.93
Coppin St.MEAC2.362.3625.0025.00-1.18-1.18
Norfolk St.MEAC2.342.3446.6746.67-0.16-0.16
Savannah St.MEAC2.312.3146.4346.43-0.17-0.17
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.232.2332.1432.14-0.80-0.80
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.212.2141.3841.38-0.38-0.38
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.192.1930.0030.00-0.87-0.87
Florida A&MMEAC2.152.1519.2319.23-1.32-1.32
Old DominionCUSA1.801.8061.7661.760.420.42
ColumbiaIvy1.771.7764.2964.290.500.50
Kansas St.B121.751.7550.0050.000.000.00
MarylandB101.711.7174.1974.190.830.83
MissouriSEC1.691.6930.0030.00-0.68-0.68
AmericanPat1.671.6740.0040.00-0.33-0.33
WoffordSC1.671.6741.3841.38-0.29-0.29
UMBCAE1.671.6719.3519.35-1.02-1.02
St. Francis PANEC1.661.6642.8642.86-0.24-0.24
Saint Joseph'sA101.661.6678.7978.790.960.96
Michigan St.B101.661.6684.8584.851.161.16
FairfieldMAAC1.641.6458.0658.060.260.26
GeorgetownBE1.641.6443.7543.75-0.20-0.20
PittsburghACC1.611.6163.3363.330.430.43
PurdueB100.230.2376.4776.470.120.12
WagnerNEC0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
Ohio St.B100.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.160.1677.7877.780.090.09
RiderMAAC0.160.1639.3939.39-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.150.1582.3582.350.100.10
NorthwesternB100.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
HarvardIvy0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
TowsonCAA0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
PennIvy0.130.1337.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.130.1380.0080.000.080.08
MichiganB100.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
NebraskaB100.130.1347.0647.06-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.130.1319.3519.35-0.08-0.08
NiagaraMAAC0.120.1221.8821.88-0.07-0.07
WisconsinB100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1179.3179.310.060.06
BrownIvy0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
AkronMAC0.110.1175.7675.760.050.05
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
VirginiaACC0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.100.1062.0762.070.030.03
TCUB120.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
MassachusettsA100.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
FloridaSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
DePaulBE0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
KansasB120.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
VillanovaBE0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
NJITASun0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
ClemsonACC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0872.4172.410.040.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
The CitadelSC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
AlbanyAE0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
TempleAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
ColgatePat0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
BaylorB120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
CreightonBE0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
IllinoisB100.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
St. John'sBE0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
RichmondA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Penn St.B100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
HoustonAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
LamarSlnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
StetsonASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MaineAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02