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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Louisiana Lafayette

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:102.1
Current RPI:121
Expected SOS:170
Current SOS:191
Current Record:12-8
Expected Record:17-10
Current Conf Record:10-3
Expected Conf Record:15-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC RPI:220
Expected OOC SOS:93



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-867.75.19%
18-980.622.69%
17-1097.335.12%
16-11116.825.22%
15-12137.49.52%
14-13157.12.01%
13-14175.60.24%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Lafayette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Miami FL (10.7)ACCA93-77L0%0.0
11-20Alabama (69.6)SECA105-93L0%0.0
12-3Louisiana Monroe (159.8)SBA81-70L0%0.0
12-9McNeese St. (323.1)SlndH97-64W100%0.0
12-12Louisiana Tech (120.1)CUSAA91-79L0%0.0
12-15UCLA (68.2)P12A89-80L0%0.0
12-18Pepperdine (109.4)WCCA79-59L0%0.0
12-21New Orleans (318.1)SlndH79-69W100%0.0
1-2Appalachian St. (265.7)SBH79-58W100%0.0
1-7Arkansas Little Rock (55.4)SBA77-57L0%0.0
1-9Arkansas St. (243.7)SBA71-69L0%0.0
1-14Georgia Southern (238.9)SBA65-74W100%0.0
1-16Georgia St. (160.1)SBA54-87W100%0.0
1-21South Alabama (251.0)SBH92-82W100%0.0
1-23Troy (298.5)SBH88-65W100%0.0
1-28Texas St. (276.7)SBH80-54W100%0.0
1-30UT Arlington (99.3)SBH90-75W100%0.0
2-2Louisiana Monroe (159.8)SBH72-65W100%0.0
2-4Appalachian St. (265.7)SBA76-87W100%0.0
2-11Arkansas St. (243.7)SBH83-73W100%0.0
2-13Arkansas Little Rock (55.4)SBH0-050%-0.1
2-18UT Arlington (99.3)SBA0-030%-5.6
2-20Texas St. (276.7)SBA0-074%7.0
2-25Troy (298.5)SBA0-079%8.6
2-27South Alabama (251.0)SBA0-078%8.4
3-3Georgia St. (160.1)SBH0-080%9.2
3-5Georgia Southern (238.9)SBH0-090%13.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Lafayette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Lafayette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Lafayette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana LafayetteSB26.4826.5266.6768.318.839.71
UT ArlingtonSB3.374.9071.4373.961.442.35
Texas St.SB3.484.8942.1140.95-0.55-0.89
Appalachian St.SB5.824.8727.2730.09-2.64-1.94
Arkansas Little RockSB3.414.8685.7184.892.443.39
Arkansas St.SB5.744.8640.0037.99-1.15-1.17
Louisiana MonroeSB5.794.8645.0048.98-0.58-0.10
South AlabamaSB3.424.8638.1038.17-0.81-1.15
TroySB3.424.8623.8125.39-1.79-2.39
Georgia SouthernSB3.364.8645.0044.12-0.34-0.57
Georgia St.SB3.364.8557.8957.170.530.70
McNeese St.Slnd2.752.0223.5332.52-1.46-0.71
New OrleansSlnd2.641.9327.7833.70-1.17-0.63
UCLAP122.621.9254.5551.840.240.07
Louisiana TechCUSA2.561.9171.4369.471.100.74
PepperdineWCC2.551.8856.5259.450.330.36
AlabamaSEC2.501.8559.0954.460.450.17
Miami FLACC2.501.8581.8276.811.590.99
Central ArkansasSlnd0.360.3425.0029.89-0.18-0.14
Southern MissCUSA0.340.2930.0031.76-0.14-0.11
MississippiSEC0.290.2662.5058.940.070.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.180.2117.6526.67-0.12-0.10
UTEPCUSA0.180.1954.1754.200.010.02
North TexasCUSA0.170.1931.8232.46-0.06-0.07
RiceCUSA0.170.1927.2728.16-0.08-0.08
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.200.1876.1972.370.100.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.180.1668.1867.730.060.06
UABCUSA0.120.1683.3379.820.080.10
LSUSEC0.180.1662.5059.080.050.03
OregonP120.220.1579.1777.200.130.08
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.1518.1821.11-0.09-0.08
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.1514.2924.90-0.05-0.07
IUPUISum0.120.1338.4638.50-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.120.1313.0412.96-0.09-0.10
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.240.1372.2275.600.110.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.170.1338.1037.67-0.04-0.03
Washington St.P120.170.1334.7831.64-0.05-0.05
AuburnSEC0.110.1339.1335.45-0.02-0.04
IdahoBSky0.110.1356.5255.340.010.01
SamfordSC0.110.1340.0041.68-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.220.1259.0961.280.040.03
CharlotteCUSA0.220.1237.5042.32-0.05-0.02
TexasB120.160.1266.6762.200.050.03
North CarolinaACC0.160.1283.3378.380.110.07
LamarSlnd0.070.1130.0029.13-0.03-0.05
Old DominionCUSA0.120.1058.3363.180.020.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.109.0917.14-0.10-0.07
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1014.2915.44-0.08-0.07
BradleyMVC0.120.1012.0011.95-0.09-0.07
DukeACC0.110.1075.0071.840.060.04
WinthropBSth0.110.1066.6763.780.040.03
GonzagaWCC0.160.1079.1777.510.090.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.170.1050.0054.180.000.01
TulaneAmer0.170.1036.0034.84-0.05-0.03
MissouriSEC0.170.0933.3330.28-0.06-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.0950.0048.950.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.0915.0018.13-0.08-0.06
MemphisAmer0.110.0958.3359.310.020.02
Ohio St.B100.110.0960.0055.560.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.0943.4843.77-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.110.0970.8367.930.050.03
KentuckySEC0.110.0975.0072.610.050.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0735.0034.83-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.140.0750.0049.760.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.140.0752.9452.100.010.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.140.0745.0049.27-0.01-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.120.0760.8757.130.030.01
DuquesneA100.120.0760.8756.270.030.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0754.1753.810.010.01
BYUWCC0.100.0768.0070.260.040.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0741.6741.18-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.050.0723.8125.99-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.100.0738.4638.04-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.0781.8281.780.070.04
San DiegoWCC0.100.0730.4328.20-0.04-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0752.1749.150.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0733.3332.04-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.060.0722.7327.39-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.060.0730.4329.49-0.02-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0721.7422.42-0.03-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0640.0042.85-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.110.0673.9168.450.050.02
BelmontOVC0.060.0668.0066.640.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.110.0642.3144.53-0.02-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.110.0683.3383.710.080.04
DenverSum0.060.0652.0049.300.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.060.0633.3334.02-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0641.6739.49-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.110.0670.8367.980.050.02
Kent St.MAC0.110.0665.2260.600.030.01
MinnesotaB100.110.0625.0027.26-0.06-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.0660.8759.830.020.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.069.5212.09-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.110.0650.0046.770.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0669.5770.090.020.03
Seton HallBE0.060.0670.8368.080.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.0616.6719.49-0.08-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.060.0620.0019.73-0.03-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.0650.0050.500.000.00
Texas TechB120.060.0660.8755.310.010.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0666.6764.700.020.02
West VirginiaB120.110.0679.1778.100.070.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.0631.8230.08-0.04-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.110.0647.8351.92-0.000.00
ClemsonACC0.110.0658.3358.400.020.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0666.6766.320.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0666.6763.300.020.02
FordhamA100.060.0652.3850.690.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.110.0686.9680.420.080.04
VirginiaACC0.050.0683.3378.460.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.0652.0048.920.00-0.00
UtahP120.050.0670.8368.520.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.110.0641.6739.90-0.02-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0679.1778.290.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0654.1751.700.000.00
FurmanSC0.100.0656.0054.430.010.01
HofstraCAA0.100.0666.6766.770.030.02
JacksonvilleASun0.100.0647.8348.57-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.100.0634.7836.53-0.03-0.02
MercerSC0.100.0666.6767.110.030.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0663.6458.760.010.01
USCP120.110.0678.2673.130.060.03
WashingtonP120.110.0662.5060.140.030.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0447.6249.39-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.070.0480.0075.690.040.02
OklahomaB120.070.0486.9682.620.050.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0450.0045.770.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.070.0443.4842.40-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0464.0062.090.020.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0320.8323.28-0.03-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0363.6461.550.010.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0360.0062.710.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0347.8350.89-0.000.00
FIUCUSA0.060.0339.1342.98-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0326.0927.89-0.03-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0350.0052.870.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0350.0051.110.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0325.0033.23-0.03-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0361.9065.330.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0345.4546.08-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0350.0052.940.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0329.1726.69-0.02-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0370.8369.000.020.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0360.8758.900.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0386.9682.160.040.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0359.0955.160.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0354.1752.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0324.0024.16-0.03-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0325.0026.38-0.03-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0319.0520.30-0.03-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0379.1775.990.000.02
NebraskaB100.050.0352.0050.760.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0343.4850.64-0.010.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0348.0048.60-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0372.7367.600.020.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0372.2274.700.020.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0368.0064.090.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0375.0075.340.030.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0358.3359.970.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.700.030.02
XavierBE0.050.0387.5081.850.040.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0328.5734.11-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0366.6764.780.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0370.8365.580.000.01
KansasB120.050.0382.6179.200.040.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0380.0081.160.030.02
StanfordP120.000.0347.6244.06-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0352.1755.070.000.00