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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Louisiana Lafayette

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:187.0
Current RPI:304
Expected SOS:246
Current SOS:298
Current Record:1-3
Expected Record:15-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-6
Current OOC Record:1-3
Expected OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC RPI:243
Expected OOC SOS:247



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-556.00.02%
22-670.30.03%
21-783.50.33%
20-895.51.21%
19-9110.22.86%
18-10125.86.17%
17-11141.710.03%
16-12159.515.32%
15-13178.617.07%
14-14198.316.37%
13-15219.213.73%
12-16240.38.62%
11-17260.15.05%
10-18277.82.27%
9-19296.20.67%
8-20311.50.22%
7-21315.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Lafayette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Tulsa (99.8)AmerA64-53L0%0.0
11-21Auburn (179.7)SECA105-80L0%0.0
11-24Milwaukee (260.8)HorzN56-52L0%0.0
11-25Oral Roberts (234.1)SumN76-52W100%0.0
12-3Jackson St. (285.7)SWACH0-080%10.3
12-6McNeese St. (242.4)SlndA0-049%-0.2
12-10Louisiana Tech (75.1)CUSAH0-034%-4.8
12-20Northwestern St. (194.2)SlndA0-041%-2.6
12-30Arkansas Little Rock (194.6)SBA0-044%-1.9
1-3Troy (248.3)SBH0-072%6.9
1-5Appalachian St. (295.7)SBA0-068%5.8
1-8Georgia St. (87.2)SBH0-044%-1.9
1-15Georgia Southern (197.2)SBA0-044%-1.8
1-17South Alabama (234.1)SBH0-073%7.3
1-19Louisiana Monroe (220.9)SBH0-071%6.7
1-22Arkansas St. (276.2)SBH0-076%8.5
1-24Georgia St. (87.2)SBA0-022%-9.1
1-29South Alabama (234.1)SBA0-051%0.2
1-31Texas St. (206.9)SBA0-048%-0.6
2-5Appalachian St. (295.7)SBH0-086%12.9
2-7UT Arlington (162.0)SBH0-065%4.5
2-12Louisiana Monroe (220.9)SBA0-048%-0.5
2-14Troy (248.3)SBA0-049%-0.2
2-19Texas St. (206.9)SBH0-071%6.6
2-21UT Arlington (162.0)SBA0-041%-2.6
2-28Georgia Southern (197.2)SBH0-067%5.4
3-5Arkansas Little Rock (194.6)SBH0-067%5.3
3-7Arkansas St. (276.2)SBA0-055%1.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Lafayette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Lafayette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Lafayette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana LafayetteSB30.0026.5431.2554.27-11.252.27
Louisiana MonroeSB0.004.7625.0043.89-0.00-0.58
Arkansas Little RockSB0.004.7666.6752.080.000.20
Georgia St.SB0.004.7460.0068.380.001.74
Appalachian St.SB0.004.7350.0028.810.00-2.00
South AlabamaSB0.004.730.0040.35-0.00-0.91
UT ArlingtonSB0.004.7360.0053.590.000.34
Arkansas St.SB0.004.730.0036.15-0.00-1.31
TroySB0.004.720.0044.65-0.00-0.51
Georgia SouthernSB0.004.7250.0051.970.000.19
Texas St.SB0.004.7266.6748.690.00-0.12
Northwestern St.Slnd0.001.950.0050.19-0.000.01
TulsaAmer15.001.9150.0054.080.000.16
McNeese St.Slnd0.001.860.0047.53-0.00-0.09
Louisiana TechCUSA0.001.8580.0072.630.000.84
AuburnSEC15.001.8550.0035.570.00-0.53
Oral RobertsSum15.001.8550.0039.940.00-0.37
MilwaukeeHorz15.001.850.0032.10-15.00-0.66
Jackson St.SWAC0.001.8220.0044.17-0.00-0.21
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.340.0022.17-0.00-0.19
Southern MissCUSA0.000.2866.6751.730.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.2575.0078.500.000.14
LamarSlnd0.000.2425.0036.27-0.00-0.07
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.240.0030.59-0.00-0.09
IUPUISum1.250.2240.0030.22-0.25-0.09
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1825.0068.20-0.000.06
South FloridaAmer0.000.1675.0055.470.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1633.3348.21-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.1660.0059.160.000.03
UABCUSA0.000.1520.0037.96-0.00-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1566.6750.170.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.140.0035.74-0.00-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1420.0035.95-0.00-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.130.0023.72-0.00-0.07
TexasB120.000.13100.0079.050.000.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.13100.0045.140.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.1333.3330.52-0.00-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.130.0040.56-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1360.0056.890.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.120.0033.90-0.00-0.04
OaklandHorz0.000.1216.6726.26-0.00-0.06
AlabamaSEC0.000.1280.0058.550.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.250.100.0030.50-1.25-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.10100.0052.770.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.1040.0060.45-0.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.1066.6741.780.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.1033.3337.71-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.1080.0070.540.000.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.10100.0079.690.000.06
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.1033.3363.17-0.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.1060.0062.400.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.1075.0053.040.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.1033.3335.99-0.00-0.03
South DakotaSum0.000.100.0038.79-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.1020.0042.43-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.1060.0056.260.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1075.0068.660.000.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.0950.0045.460.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0933.3360.46-0.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0925.0052.78-0.000.01
MissouriSEC1.250.0940.0036.39-0.25-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0960.0067.380.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0089.470.000.07
TempleAmer0.000.0960.0050.480.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0960.0068.830.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.090.0025.17-0.00-0.04
TulaneAmer0.000.0966.6739.850.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0980.0074.880.000.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0035.47-0.00-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0041.21-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0750.0065.020.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0733.3352.29-0.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.07100.0067.700.000.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0725.0045.33-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.070.0036.81-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.070.0029.60-0.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0720.0039.02-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0760.0056.430.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0733.3347.83-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.0775.0045.180.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0650.0067.630.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0633.3337.74-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0625.0049.53-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0650.0060.380.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0620.0031.46-0.00-0.02
IPFWSum0.000.0666.6762.480.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0675.0066.230.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0650.0050.720.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0633.3330.24-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0047.410.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0683.3368.400.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0633.3354.85-0.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0666.6741.200.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0675.0056.110.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0625.0026.73-0.00-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0650.0048.990.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0650.0040.660.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B122.500.06100.0060.402.500.01
Oregon St.P122.500.0650.0042.750.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0031.400.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0064.570.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0675.0069.780.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0625.0035.86-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0625.0027.48-0.00-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.0675.0044.850.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0640.0046.34-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0616.6745.35-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6760.700.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0625.0045.04-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0078.880.000.04
Montana St.BSky0.000.060.0020.51-0.00-0.04
NJITind0.000.0620.0030.12-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0666.6752.280.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0666.6754.980.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0650.0063.970.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0065.590.000.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0633.3366.19-0.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0660.0035.980.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0018.96-0.00-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0069.610.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0061.130.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0069.210.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0640.0047.99-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0064.840.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0032.17-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0063.05-0.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0616.6732.00-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0020.98-0.00-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0015.46-0.00-0.04
BaylorB120.000.04100.0075.130.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.04100.0055.370.000.00
TCUB120.000.04100.0058.380.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6725.500.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0333.3351.33-0.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0350.0070.920.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0033.42-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0087.590.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0062.000.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0061.500.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0083.180.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.0366.6759.540.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0050.620.000.00
ColoradoP121.250.0375.0060.510.620.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0039.39-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3358.80-0.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0375.0039.180.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0023.49-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0325.0028.63-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0052.250.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0380.0067.950.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0366.6746.480.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0053.730.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0340.0045.07-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3353.65-0.000.00
XavierBE0.000.03100.0078.730.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0325.0023.91-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0350.0042.050.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0067.79-0.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0052.070.000.00