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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Louisiana Lafayette

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:221.0
Current RPI:221
Expected SOS:145
Current SOS:145
Current Record:12-20
Expected Record:12-20
Current Conf Record:9-13
Expected Conf Record:9-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:264
Expected OOC SOS:155



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-20221.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Lafayette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Oakland (152.0)SumH90-79W100%0.0
11-16Texas Southern (184.0)SWACA74-71L0%0.0
11-18Boise St. (45.0)MWCA63-57L0%0.0
11-23New Mexico St. (55.0)WACA79-57L0%0.0
11-25Michigan St. (9.0)B10A63-60L0%0.0
11-29Middle Tennessee (28.0)SBH58-72L0%0.0
12-1North Texas (247.0)SBA76-80W100%0.0
12-8McNeese St. (246.0)SlndA77-72L0%0.0
12-11Lamar (335.0)SlndH77-60W100%0.0
12-15Houston (197.0)CUSAA85-63L0%0.0
12-18Robert Morris (132.0)NECH61-66L0%0.0
12-22Duquesne (229.0)A10H91-79W100%0.0
12-27Arkansas St. (163.0)SBA87-70L0%0.0
12-29Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)SBH79-70W100%0.0
1-3Florida Atlantic (218.0)SBA75-70L0%0.0
1-5Florida International (111.0)SBA75-70L0%0.0
1-10South Alabama (154.0)SBH89-91L0%0.0
1-12Arkansas St. (163.0)SBH61-56W100%0.0
1-17Western Kentucky (150.0)SBA72-49L0%0.0
1-19Middle Tennessee (28.0)SBA82-60L0%0.0
1-24Florida International (111.0)SBH75-80L0%0.0
1-31North Texas (247.0)SBH105-74W100%0.0
2-2Troy (279.0)SBA71-52L0%0.0
2-10Louisiana Monroe (305.0)SBH90-66W100%0.0
2-14South Alabama (154.0)SBA88-64L0%0.0
2-16Florida Atlantic (218.0)SBH58-57W100%0.0
2-21Troy (279.0)SBH76-66W100%0.0
2-23Western Kentucky (150.0)SBH77-88L0%0.0
2-28Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)SBA77-68L0%0.0
3-2Louisiana Monroe (305.0)SBA63-71W100%0.0
3-8North Texas (247.0)SBN74-55W100%0.0
3-9Middle Tennessee (28.0)SBN81-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Lafayette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Lafayette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Lafayette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana LafayetteSB26.5226.5235.9435.94-7.46-7.46
Middle TennesseeSB5.745.7483.3383.333.823.82
North TexasSB5.675.6740.7440.74-1.05-1.05
Western KentuckySB4.364.3653.1253.120.270.27
Florida InternationalSB4.344.3453.3353.330.290.29
Arkansas St.SB4.264.2660.7160.710.910.91
TroySB4.254.2535.4835.48-1.23-1.23
South AlabamaSB4.204.2053.8553.850.320.32
Arkansas Little RockSB4.194.1951.7251.720.140.14
Florida AtlanticSB4.194.1941.3841.38-0.72-0.72
Louisiana MonroeSB4.174.1716.0016.00-2.84-2.84
Texas SouthernSWAC1.791.7953.3353.330.120.12
LamarSlnd1.751.7510.0010.00-1.40-1.40
Michigan St.B101.641.6474.1974.190.790.79
OaklandSum1.641.6448.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Boise St.MWC1.641.6464.2964.290.470.47
New Mexico St.WAC1.621.6268.7568.750.610.61
McNeese St.Slnd1.611.6137.0437.04-0.42-0.42
Robert MorrisNEC1.591.5968.7568.750.600.60
HoustonCUSA1.591.5958.6258.620.270.27
DuquesneA101.591.5927.5927.59-0.71-0.71
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.290.2937.9337.93-0.07-0.07
Louisiana TechWAC0.280.2880.6580.650.170.17
UABCUSA0.260.2646.8846.88-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.220.2229.0329.03-0.09-0.09
IUPUISum0.200.2013.3313.33-0.15-0.15
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.190.1917.8617.86-0.12-0.12
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.160.1630.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.160.1685.1985.190.110.11
StetsonASun0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
DaytonA100.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.1170.3770.370.040.04
Oral RobertsSlnd0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
CreightonMVC0.110.1179.4179.410.060.06
St. BonaventureA100.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. LouisA100.100.1081.8281.820.070.07
VirginiaACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Georgia St.CAA0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MonmouthNEC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
TulsaCUSA0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
LehighPat0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
IndianaB100.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Murray St.OVC0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
IdahoWAC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Central FloridaCUSA0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
AkronMAC0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
Texas St.WAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Southern MississippiCUSA0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
IowaB100.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
LouisvilleBE0.090.0985.2985.290.070.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
RiceCUSA0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
GramblingSWAC0.080.080.000.00-0.08-0.08
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
SeattleWAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.WAC0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Virginia CommonwealthA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
BelmontOVC0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
FloridaSEC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
New Orleansind0.050.0518.1818.18-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
PittsburghBE0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
South DakotaSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
CharlotteA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
ElonSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
XavierA100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Long IslandNEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DenverWAC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Texas San AntonioWAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Utah St.WAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
ButlerA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Chicago St.GWC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0353.8553.850.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MemphisCUSA0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TempleA100.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas ChristianB120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
IllinoisB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
KansasB120.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
TexasB120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
CampbellBSth0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
WagnerNEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01