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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Louisiana Lafayette

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:62.4
Current RPI:61
Expected SOS:225
Current SOS:240
Current Record:15-3
Expected Record:24-5
Current Conf Record:7-0
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-1
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:67
Expected OOC SOS:191



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-340.95.31%
25-448.419.74%
24-556.730.16%
23-666.925.11%
22-779.413.88%
21-895.04.65%
20-9114.00.95%
19-10135.30.18%
18-11164.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Lafayette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Mississippi (116.1)SECA94-76L0%0.0
11-17Savannah St. (246.7)MEACH115-82W100%0.0
11-20Iowa (157.0)B10N71-80W100%0.0
11-21Wyoming (101.5)MWCN70-61L0%0.0
11-22Richmond (201.6)A10N76-82W100%0.0
11-28McNeese St. (297.6)SlndH89-78W100%0.0
12-1Nicholls St. (199.3)SlndA80-105W100%0.0
12-12Louisiana Tech (159.7)CUSAA71-75W100%0.0
12-16New Orleans (219.1)SlndH87-65W100%0.0
12-19Southeastern Louisiana (204.8)SlndH82-74W100%0.0
12-22Clemson (14.2)ACCA89-60L0%0.0
12-29Little Rock (293.4)SBA63-77W100%0.0
12-31Arkansas St. (290.5)SBA78-88W100%0.0
1-4Appalachian St. (266.2)SBH78-45W100%0.0
1-6Coastal Carolina (244.7)SBH81-64W100%0.0
1-13Louisiana Monroe (292.1)SBH82-48W100%0.0
1-18UT Arlington (120.5)SBA65-77W100%0.0
1-20Texas St. (217.2)SBA55-80W100%0.0
1-25South Alabama (234.0)SBH0-091%14.7
1-27Troy (207.6)SBH0-083%10.6
2-3Louisiana Monroe (292.1)SBA0-085%11.5
2-8Georgia St. (135.6)SBA0-054%1.2
2-10Georgia Southern (118.9)SBA0-057%2.0
2-15Texas St. (217.2)SBH0-090%14.0
2-17UT Arlington (120.5)SBH0-070%5.8
2-22Troy (207.6)SBA0-065%4.2
2-24South Alabama (234.0)SBA0-077%8.3
3-1Arkansas St. (290.5)SBH0-093%16.5
3-3Little Rock (293.4)SBH0-094%17.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Lafayette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Lafayette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Lafayette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana LafayetteSB26.4126.3086.9084.0019.4917.88
Louisiana MonroeSB3.314.3128.5730.84-1.42-1.65
South AlabamaSB0.384.2250.0048.100.00-0.16
UT ArlingtonSB3.184.1863.1665.390.841.29
Arkansas St.SB3.094.1829.4133.17-1.27-1.41
Little RockSB3.094.1823.5326.92-1.64-1.93
Texas St.SB3.184.1861.1153.540.710.30
TroySB0.224.1535.2944.04-0.06-0.49
Georgia SouthernSB0.392.6566.6766.160.130.86
Georgia St.SB0.382.6566.6766.250.130.86
Coastal CarolinaSB3.012.6329.4139.54-1.24-0.55
Appalachian St.SB3.012.5635.2938.60-0.89-0.58
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.971.9956.2557.080.370.28
New OrleansSlnd2.881.9840.0047.02-0.58-0.12
Nicholls St.Slnd2.881.9253.3353.460.190.13
McNeese St.Slnd3.031.9230.7732.57-1.17-0.67
MississippiSEC2.781.7550.0044.060.00-0.21
Savannah St.MEAC2.781.7529.4135.73-1.14-0.50
ClemsonACC2.781.7283.3372.281.850.77
IowaB102.781.7250.0045.500.00-0.16
Louisiana TechCUSA2.781.7255.5657.270.310.25
RichmondA102.781.7233.3335.53-0.93-0.50
WyomingMWC2.781.7258.8255.340.490.18
Northwestern St.Slnd0.360.337.1414.82-0.31-0.23
Central ArkansasSlnd0.410.3145.0049.27-0.04-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.420.2852.9452.620.020.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.430.265.8819.37-0.38-0.16
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.320.257.6923.28-0.27-0.13
LamarSlnd0.320.2350.0054.850.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.420.2380.0078.860.250.13
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.2243.7549.10-0.02-0.00
UABCUSA0.300.2161.1164.130.070.06
RiceCUSA0.290.2011.1117.69-0.22-0.13
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1841.1838.460.00-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.270.167.6920.09-0.23-0.10
TulaneAmer0.170.1563.1657.900.040.02
UTSACUSA0.220.1541.1839.65-0.04-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.230.1545.0045.02-0.02-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.240.1236.8444.12-0.06-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.240.1270.0068.220.100.05
North TexasCUSA0.240.1244.4446.64-0.03-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.1230.0036.48-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.1277.7879.160.040.07
HamptonMEAC0.230.1220.0041.76-0.14-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.1218.7536.76-0.05-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.150.1244.4441.15-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.1268.4264.200.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.220.1238.8935.35-0.05-0.03
BradleyMVC0.150.1265.0057.870.050.02
Colorado St.MWC0.150.1245.0041.34-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.070.1245.0041.35-0.01-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.300.1261.1151.900.070.00
Ohio St.B100.220.1280.9576.520.130.06
IndianaB100.140.1257.8950.680.020.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1272.2258.940.070.02
AlabamaSEC0.140.1268.4258.990.050.02
SMUAmer0.180.1070.0070.630.070.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.170.1038.8943.43-0.04-0.01
MemphisAmer0.160.0965.0058.490.050.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.170.0927.7829.11-0.07-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.180.0958.8262.830.030.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.090.009.150.00-0.07
South FloridaAmer0.150.0935.0026.14-0.05-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.150.0933.3334.11-0.05-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.0973.6867.950.000.03
EvansvilleMVC0.150.0952.6347.360.01-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0935.2935.570.00-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0937.5037.68-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.150.0910.5327.31-0.12-0.04
Texas TechB120.080.0978.9571.810.040.04
Wichita St.Amer0.150.0978.9577.360.090.05
DavidsonA100.150.0958.8261.440.030.02
VCUA100.150.0960.0059.690.030.02
Air ForceMWC0.070.0937.5031.76-0.02-0.03
La SalleA100.070.0940.0042.72-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.150.0945.0044.46-0.02-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.220.0916.6724.29-0.14-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.0972.2274.700.060.04
CincinnatiAmer0.230.0989.4785.520.180.06
Virginia TechACC0.140.0868.4257.780.050.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.220.0872.2272.970.100.04
HoustonAmer0.190.0778.9572.990.110.03
TCUB120.090.0773.6865.590.040.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.0643.7554.09-0.010.01
PittsburghACC0.100.0640.0030.87-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.160.0668.4270.810.060.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0644.4445.980.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0668.7563.960.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.1145.970.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0629.4134.760.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.150.0625.0028.25-0.08-0.03
Notre DameACC0.150.0663.1661.050.040.01
SamfordSC0.150.0627.7832.66-0.07-0.02
VermontAE0.150.0673.6877.120.070.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0629.4133.220.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0660.0060.340.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0620.0023.36-0.05-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0629.4133.940.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0646.6746.98-0.01-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0670.0071.230.030.03
MaineAE0.000.0610.5314.860.00-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0629.4139.62-0.03-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0625.0028.02-0.04-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0630.0032.53-0.03-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0657.1460.400.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0644.4448.910.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.080.0663.1657.540.020.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0636.8432.790.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0627.7831.670.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0633.3336.920.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0626.3231.52-0.04-0.02
Iowa St.B120.140.0661.1147.260.03-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0622.2228.59-0.04-0.03
DaytonA100.070.0647.3750.95-0.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0638.8946.03-0.02-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0655.5656.710.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0678.9576.760.040.03
VirginiaACC0.080.0694.4485.440.070.04
Michigan St.B100.080.0685.0083.180.050.04
TexasB120.070.0663.1657.620.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.150.0668.4263.980.060.02
Boise St.MWC0.080.0678.9576.970.040.03
Boston CollegeACC0.150.0668.4255.060.050.01
BYUWCC0.070.0680.9576.230.040.03
Cal PolyBW0.070.0623.5328.21-0.04-0.03
CreightonBE0.070.0675.0070.690.030.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0657.8966.250.010.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0673.6869.610.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0666.6763.420.000.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0645.0043.49-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0652.6343.120.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.080.0685.7182.070.060.04
New MexicoMWC0.080.0645.0048.56-0.01-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0657.1453.220.010.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0680.0075.050.040.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.0668.4257.770.050.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0647.0652.51-0.000.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0647.3746.91-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0611.7612.810.00-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.0621.0544.26-0.09-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.080.0645.0045.50-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.140.0655.0049.070.01-0.00
FloridaSEC0.150.0673.6871.550.070.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0689.4777.030.060.03
MichiganB100.070.0675.0070.270.030.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0663.6457.640.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6763.200.000.01
Penn St.B100.070.0661.9055.770.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0672.2268.920.000.02
OaklandHorz0.090.0361.9065.160.020.01
St. John'sBE0.090.0347.3742.18-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.090.0364.7166.850.030.01
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0329.4127.74-0.04-0.01
SeattleWAC0.090.0357.8954.500.010.00
UMBCAE0.090.0358.8258.360.020.01
VillanovaBE0.090.0394.7490.310.080.03
AkronMAC0.080.0347.0644.91-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0366.6765.620.030.01
IonaMAAC0.080.0363.1666.880.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0344.4444.86-0.01-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.030.0010.65-0.08-0.02
UCFAmer0.080.0368.4260.880.030.01
ValparaisoMVC0.080.0350.0051.360.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0352.9452.230.000.00
WoffordSC0.080.0368.7563.620.030.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0310.5316.750.00-0.02
BaylorB120.080.0361.1156.090.020.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0350.0052.440.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0323.5325.630.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.039.5217.94-0.06-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0310.0019.620.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.070.0352.6351.700.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0316.6724.910.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0352.9457.320.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.070.0368.4263.640.030.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0315.7920.92-0.05-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0370.0068.420.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0370.5973.140.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0350.0047.670.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0321.0539.470.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0342.1143.50-0.01-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0363.1666.000.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0321.0524.710.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.080.0364.7159.980.020.01
BucknellPat0.070.0361.9068.010.020.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0347.3743.04-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.080.0333.3336.47-0.03-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0389.4785.190.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0370.0058.100.000.00
FordhamA100.070.0331.5829.06-0.03-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0368.4254.090.030.00
HofstraCAA0.070.0357.8959.470.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0377.7869.360.040.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0376.4769.020.040.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0358.8257.140.010.00
OhioMAC0.070.0347.0648.44-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.080.0357.8950.810.010.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0383.3381.410.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0051.650.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6768.700.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0368.4261.270.000.01
TempleAmer0.070.0352.6351.730.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0350.0055.650.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0373.6865.280.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.030.003.12-0.07-0.03
ColoradoP120.070.0360.0053.730.010.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0331.5832.72-0.03-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0366.6755.930.020.00
IllinoisB100.070.0347.3744.27-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0347.3745.87-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.0361.1153.160.000.00
MarylandB100.070.0370.0065.320.030.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6759.780.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0341.1839.13-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0355.0050.370.000.00
PurdueB100.070.0390.4888.380.050.02
RutgersB100.070.0357.8947.140.01-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.070.0327.7840.97-0.03-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0337.5033.78-0.02-0.01
UtahP120.070.0361.1158.950.020.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0336.8435.550.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0350.0046.260.00-0.00