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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Louisiana Lafayette

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:114.0
Current RPI:114
Expected SOS:171
Current SOS:171
Current Record:19-12
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-1
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:75
Expected OOC SOS:244



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-12114.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Lafayette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Minnesota (20.0)B10A86-74L0%0.0
11-14Montana St. (253.0)BSkyA84-83L0%0.0
11-21Delaware St. (332.0)MEACH83-82W100%0.0
11-23James Madison (255.0)CAAA70-82W100%0.0
11-27Texas Southern (108.0)SWACH84-73W100%0.0
12-1Nicholls St. (252.0)SlndH101-69W100%0.0
12-3McNeese St. (315.0)SlndA72-92W100%0.0
12-10Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAH91-83W100%0.0
12-14Georgia (52.0)SECA73-60L0%0.0
12-17New Orleans (154.0)SlndA71-76W100%0.0
12-20Pepperdine (245.0)WCCH90-64W100%0.0
12-31Arkansas St. (119.0)SBA74-71L0%0.0
1-2Little Rock (243.0)SBA52-69W100%0.0
1-7Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBH69-60W100%0.0
1-14Georgia Southern (121.0)SBH76-81L0%0.0
1-16Georgia St. (104.0)SBH86-101L0%0.0
1-21Texas St. (179.0)SBA73-79W100%0.0
1-23UT Arlington (45.0)SBA108-71L0%0.0
1-28Little Rock (243.0)SBH88-82W100%0.0
1-30Arkansas St. (119.0)SBH69-88L0%0.0
2-4Georgia St. (104.0)SBA85-82L0%0.0
2-6Georgia Southern (121.0)SBA74-70L0%0.0
2-11Troy (147.0)SBH88-100L0%0.0
2-13South Alabama (231.0)SBH87-61W100%0.0
2-18Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBA84-85W100%0.0
2-25Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBA77-79W100%0.0
2-27Appalachian St. (301.0)SBA62-77W100%0.0
3-2Texas St. (179.0)SBH94-84W100%0.0
3-4UT Arlington (45.0)SBH83-81W100%0.0
3-8Little Rock (243.0)SBN78-71W100%0.0
3-10Georgia St. (104.0)SBN86-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Lafayette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Lafayette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Lafayette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana LafayetteSB26.4126.4162.7662.766.746.74
Little RockSB5.525.5248.1548.15-0.20-0.20
Georgia St.SB5.525.5255.5655.560.610.61
Louisiana MonroeSB4.184.1824.1424.14-2.16-2.16
Texas St.SB4.074.0762.0762.070.980.98
UT ArlingtonSB4.044.0475.8675.862.092.09
Arkansas St.SB4.024.0258.6258.620.690.69
Georgia SouthernSB3.993.9950.0050.000.000.00
TroySB2.732.7357.5857.580.410.41
Coastal CarolinaSB2.592.5946.6746.67-0.17-0.17
Appalachian St.SB2.562.5625.9325.93-1.23-1.23
South AlabamaSB2.542.5441.3841.38-0.44-0.44
MinnesotaB101.771.7771.8871.880.770.77
McNeese St.Slnd1.751.7520.0020.00-1.05-1.05
New OrleansSlnd1.731.7362.9662.960.450.45
Texas SouthernSWAC1.721.7269.7069.700.680.68
Nicholls St.Slnd1.701.7038.4638.46-0.39-0.39
PepperdineWCC1.691.6927.5927.59-0.76-0.76
James MadisonCAA1.691.6929.0329.03-0.71-0.71
Montana St.BSky1.661.6644.8344.83-0.17-0.17
Delaware St.MEAC1.661.6627.5927.59-0.75-0.75
GeorgiaSEC1.611.6154.8454.840.160.16
Louisiana TechCUSA1.611.6170.0070.000.650.65
Central ArkansasSlnd0.360.3625.0025.00-0.18-0.18
Northwestern St.Slnd0.200.2036.0036.00-0.06-0.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.200.2060.7160.710.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.190.1976.6776.670.100.10
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
TulsaAmer0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
RiceCUSA0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.156.906.90-0.13-0.13
LamarSlnd0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
Old DominionCUSA0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
FloridaSEC0.130.1375.0075.000.070.07
North TexasCUSA0.130.1321.4321.43-0.07-0.07
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
TexasB120.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.120.1232.0032.00-0.04-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.120.1236.0036.00-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.110.1119.3519.35-0.07-0.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
FIUCUSA0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.1187.5087.500.080.08
NJITASun0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.06-0.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
UTSACUSA0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
PacificWCC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
USCP120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
DelawareCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
TCUB120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
UABCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0744.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
SMUAmer0.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
SamfordSC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
MercerSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
PortlandWCC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UMBCAE0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.020.02
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
BaylorB120.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
CornellIvy0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00