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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Louisiana Lafayette

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:142.0
Current RPI:142
Expected SOS:184
Current SOS:184
Current Record:17-13
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:14-8
Expected Conf Record:14-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-4
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC RPI:205
Expected OOC SOS:168



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-13142.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Lafayette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Tulsa (45.0)AmerA64-53L0%0.0
11-21Auburn (129.0)SECA105-80L0%0.0
11-24Milwaukee (206.0)HorzN56-52L0%0.0
11-25Oral Roberts (163.0)SumN76-52W100%0.0
12-3Jackson St. (322.0)SWACH76-53W100%0.0
12-6McNeese St. (279.0)SlndA80-70L0%0.0
12-10Louisiana Tech (58.0)CUSAH94-86W100%0.0
12-20Northwestern St. (161.0)SlndA89-85L0%0.0
12-30Arkansas Little Rock (276.0)SBA79-83W100%0.0
1-3Troy (313.0)SBH91-64W100%0.0
1-5Appalachian St. (250.0)SBA64-80W100%0.0
1-8Georgia St. (53.0)SBH84-80W100%0.0
1-15Georgia Southern (113.0)SBA78-70L0%0.0
1-17South Alabama (275.0)SBH82-89L0%0.0
1-19Louisiana Monroe (132.0)SBH55-57L0%0.0
1-22Arkansas St. (277.0)SBH96-59W100%0.0
1-24Georgia St. (53.0)SBA75-64L0%0.0
1-29South Alabama (275.0)SBA89-85L0%0.0
1-31Texas St. (236.0)SBA63-72W100%0.0
2-5Appalachian St. (250.0)SBH81-66W100%0.0
2-7UT Arlington (184.0)SBH69-84L0%0.0
2-12Louisiana Monroe (132.0)SBA67-55L0%0.0
2-14Troy (313.0)SBA80-84W100%0.0
2-19Texas St. (236.0)SBH64-42W100%0.0
2-21UT Arlington (184.0)SBA70-81W100%0.0
2-28Georgia Southern (113.0)SBH68-58W100%0.0
3-5Arkansas Little Rock (276.0)SBH75-69W100%0.0
3-7Arkansas St. (277.0)SBA57-81W100%0.0
3-13Texas St. (236.0)SBN53-43W100%0.0
3-14Georgia St. (53.0)SBN83-79L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Lafayette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Lafayette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Lafayette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana LafayetteSB26.6526.6558.9658.964.774.77
Georgia St.SB6.166.1672.4172.412.762.76
Texas St.SB6.136.1344.0044.00-0.74-0.74
Louisiana MonroeSB4.624.6255.5655.560.510.51
Georgia SouthernSB4.614.6169.2369.231.771.77
South AlabamaSB4.594.5927.5927.59-2.06-2.06
UT ArlingtonSB4.574.5750.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB4.564.5642.8642.86-0.65-0.65
Appalachian St.SB4.474.4744.4444.44-0.50-0.50
Arkansas St.SB4.474.4738.4638.46-1.03-1.03
TroySB4.474.4732.0032.00-1.61-1.61
Northwestern St.Slnd1.841.8453.8553.850.140.14
TulsaAmer1.771.7770.0070.000.710.71
McNeese St.Slnd1.761.7638.4638.46-0.41-0.41
Louisiana TechCUSA1.721.7277.4277.420.950.95
AuburnSEC1.721.7239.3939.39-0.37-0.37
Oral RobertsSum1.721.7255.1755.170.180.18
MilwaukeeHorz1.721.7240.7440.74-0.32-0.32
Jackson St.SWAC1.691.6935.4835.48-0.49-0.49
Central ArkansasSlnd0.300.306.906.90-0.26-0.26
Southern MissCUSA0.270.2725.9325.93-0.13-0.13
Green BayHorz0.270.2773.3373.330.130.13
IUPUISum0.240.2432.2632.26-0.09-0.09
LamarSlnd0.240.2442.3142.31-0.04-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.210.2186.6786.670.160.16
Nicholls St.Slnd0.210.2126.9226.92-0.10-0.10
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.170.1743.7543.75-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
TexasB120.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
UTSACUSA0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
OaklandHorz0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1352.9452.940.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.120.1230.7730.77-0.05-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1116.6716.67-0.08-0.08
BradleyMVC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
KentuckySEC0.100.10100.00100.000.100.10
LSUSEC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1077.4277.420.060.06
ToledoMAC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
SeattleWAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0958.3358.330.010.01
UCFAmer0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
FIUCUSA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
South DakotaSum0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Weber St.BSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
FloridaSEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
TulaneAmer0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Iowa St.B120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
IllinoisB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
BYUWCC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
NJITind0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
XavierBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01