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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Louisiana Lafayette

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:90.0
Current RPI:90
Expected SOS:162
Current SOS:162
Current Record:20-11
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-3
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:49
Expected OOC SOS:66



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1190.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Lafayette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12McNeese St. (272.0)SlndH92-66W100%0.0
11-15Arkansas (77.0)SECA76-63L0%0.0
11-17Baylor (30.0)B12A87-68L0%0.0
11-23Oakland (181.0)HorzN84-75W100%0.0
11-24Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthA69-73W100%0.0
11-27Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndH105-74W100%0.0
12-4Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAA80-89W100%0.0
12-7Louisville (19.0)AmerA113-74L0%0.0
12-14Houston (143.0)AmerH79-76W100%0.0
12-19Jackson St. (296.0)SWACA73-70L0%0.0
1-4Louisiana Monroe (244.0)SBA103-98L0%0.0
1-11UT Arlington (199.0)SBH90-70W100%0.0
1-13Texas St. (307.0)SBH81-58W100%0.0
1-16South Alabama (280.0)SBA81-73L0%0.0
1-18Troy (285.0)SBA59-72W100%0.0
1-23Georgia St. (76.0)SBH70-77L0%0.0
1-25Western Kentucky (125.0)SBH70-79L0%0.0
1-30Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBA80-69L0%0.0
2-1Louisiana Monroe (244.0)SBH66-50W100%0.0
2-6UT Arlington (199.0)SBA89-92W100%0.0
2-8Texas St. (307.0)SBA66-67W100%0.0
2-13Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBH93-87W100%0.0
2-15Arkansas St. (180.0)SBH85-67W100%0.0
2-20Troy (285.0)SBH78-63W100%0.0
2-22Georgia St. (76.0)SBA80-77L0%0.0
3-2South Alabama (280.0)SBH102-76W100%0.0
3-6Western Kentucky (125.0)SBA75-72L0%0.0
3-8Arkansas St. (180.0)SBA76-77W100%0.0
3-14UT Arlington (199.0)SBN91-85W100%0.0
3-15Western Kentucky (125.0)SBN72-73W100%0.0
3-16Georgia St. (76.0)SBN81-82W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Lafayette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Lafayette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Lafayette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana LafayetteSB26.6526.6569.1769.1710.2210.22
Georgia St.SB5.925.9275.0075.002.962.96
UT ArlingtonSB5.895.8948.1548.15-0.22-0.22
Western KentuckySB5.865.8660.7160.711.251.25
Arkansas St.SB4.434.4360.7160.710.950.95
Louisiana MonroeSB4.394.3933.3333.33-1.46-1.46
Arkansas Little RockSB4.384.3842.8642.86-0.63-0.63
TroySB4.324.3233.3333.33-1.44-1.44
Texas St.SB4.294.2922.2222.22-2.38-2.38
South AlabamaSB4.294.2926.9226.92-1.98-1.98
LouisvilleAmer1.761.7684.8584.851.231.23
Louisiana TechCUSA1.761.7681.2581.251.101.10
Northwestern St.Slnd1.751.7550.0050.000.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd1.751.7526.9226.92-0.81-0.81
HoustonAmer1.741.7453.1253.120.110.11
Jackson St.SWAC1.691.6933.3333.33-0.56-0.56
ArkansasSEC1.671.6764.5264.520.480.48
BaylorB121.641.6465.6265.620.510.51
Coastal CarolinaBSth1.611.6162.0762.070.390.39
OaklandHorz1.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
Southern MissCUSA0.370.3780.6580.650.220.22
TexasB120.270.2769.7069.700.110.11
MississippiSEC0.250.2557.5857.580.040.04
OklahomaB120.230.2371.8871.880.100.10
SMUAmer0.230.2371.8871.880.100.10
Houston BaptistSlnd0.230.2314.8114.81-0.16-0.16
Central ArkansasSlnd0.220.2224.0024.00-0.12-0.12
SamfordSC0.220.2233.3333.33-0.07-0.07
MemphisAmer0.210.2170.9770.970.090.09
Oral RobertsSlnd0.200.2044.8344.83-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.180.1870.5970.590.070.07
Nicholls St.Slnd0.180.1846.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.180.1893.1093.100.150.15
LSUSEC0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
UTSACUSA0.150.1522.2222.22-0.08-0.08
LamarSlnd0.140.1410.7110.71-0.11-0.11
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
Wright St.Horz0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1363.3363.330.040.04
East CarolinaCUSA0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1314.8114.81-0.09-0.09
RiceCUSA0.130.1317.8617.86-0.08-0.08
AlabamaSEC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
RutgersAmer0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1130.7730.77-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
KansasB120.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
DetroitHorz0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
TulaneCUSA0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Kansas St.B120.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
ColoradoP120.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
South FloridaAmer0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
UCFAmer0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0936.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0968.9768.970.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.2121.21-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
UABCUSA0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
WyomingMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
FloridaSEC0.080.0894.1294.120.070.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
ElonSC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.080.0859.2659.260.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
TCUB120.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Michigan St.B100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
DaytonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
StanfordP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.023.703.70-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01