Louisiana Lafayette

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	159.3
Current RPI:	153
Expected SOS:	195
Current SOS:	195
Current Record:	13-11
Expected Record:	16-13
Current Conf Record:	8-3
Expected Conf Record:	11-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	5.24%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-2
Current OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC RPI:	224
Expected OOC SOS:	154

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-11	124.2	3.05%
17-12	138.8	21.67%
16-13	156.2	41.99%
15-14	176.0	26.95%
14-15	194.9	5.94%
13-16	212.1	0.39%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Lafayette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Northern Arizona (328.5)	BSky	N	83-66	W	100%	0.0
11-12	North Dakota St. (125.0)	Sum	N	78-58	L	0%	0.0
11-13	San Francisco (152.1)	WCC	A	71-70	L	0%	0.0
11-18	Houston Baptist (314.2)	GWC	H	73-64	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Cal St. Fullerton (167.7)	BW	H	63-69	L	0%	0.0
11-20	Nicholls St. (314.5)	Slnd	H	84-57	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Duquesne (79.5)	A10	A	84-65	L	0%	0.0
11-28	Kent St. (84.8)	MAC	A	76-67	L	0%	0.0
12-1	McNeese St. (218.1)	Slnd	H	78-56	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Lamar (102.9)	Slnd	A	80-63	L	0%	0.0
12-14	Mississippi (70.0)	SEC	A	66-54	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Robert Morris (111.2)	NEC	A	72-64	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Central Florida (72.7)	CUSA	H	61-60	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Florida Atlantic (179.8)	SB	H	67-55	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Western Kentucky (240.2)	SB	A	70-72	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Middle Tennessee (49.6)	SB	A	65-53	L	0%	0.0
1-12	South Alabama (196.0)	SB	H	65-70	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Florida International (212.8)	SB	H	87-81	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Arkansas Little Rock (187.7)	SB	A	49-68	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Arkansas St. (228.9)	SB	A	79-74	L	0%	0.0
1-25	North Texas (203.3)	SB	H	64-62	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Louisiana Monroe (323.3)	SB	A	60-67	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Denver (91.3)	SB	H	72-71	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Troy (274.9)	SB	A	78-83	W	100%	0.0
2-9	Arkansas Little Rock (187.7)	SB	H	0-0		67%	4.8
2-11	Arkansas St. (228.9)	SB	H	0-0		75%	7.2
2-16	Denver (91.3)	SB	A	0-0		17%	-10.3
2-18	North Texas (203.3)	SB	A	0-0		37%	-3.6
2-25	Louisiana Monroe (323.3)	SB	H	0-0		92%	15.1

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Lafayette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Louisiana Lafayette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Louisiana Lafayette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	26.16	26.20	57.00	56.58	3.66	3.45
Louisiana Monroe	SB	2.70	4.21	9.09	9.36	-2.21	-3.43
Arkansas St.	SB	2.60	4.19	34.78	36.59	-0.79	-1.12
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	2.50	4.13	45.45	46.31	-0.23	-0.30
Denver	SB	2.55	4.13	73.91	74.51	1.22	2.02
North Texas	SB	2.49	4.11	52.63	51.56	0.13	0.13
Middle Tennessee	SB	2.61	2.37	82.61	84.22	1.71	1.63
Western Kentucky	SB	2.52	2.35	36.36	35.71	-0.69	-0.67
Florida Atlantic	SB	2.50	2.34	38.10	41.19	-0.60	-0.41
Florida International	SB	2.50	2.34	35.00	38.59	-0.75	-0.53
South Alabama	SB	2.55	2.34	50.00	50.99	0.00	0.05
Troy	SB	2.55	2.34	30.00	31.38	-1.02	-0.87
Nicholls St.	Slnd	2.39	2.04	26.32	24.67	-1.13	-1.03
Lamar	Slnd	2.24	1.91	60.00	66.06	0.45	0.61
McNeese St.	Slnd	2.19	1.85	43.75	44.32	-0.27	-0.21
Houston Baptist	GWC	2.23	1.82	26.32	29.66	-1.06	-0.74
Mississippi	SEC	2.17	1.82	61.90	55.22	0.52	0.19
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	2.19	1.79	63.16	65.42	0.58	0.55
San Francisco	WCC	2.18	1.79	54.55	52.06	0.20	0.07
North Dakota St.	Sum	2.18	1.79	60.00	62.12	0.44	0.43
Northern Arizona	BSky	2.18	1.79	14.29	16.76	-1.56	-1.19
Duquesne	A10	2.18	1.79	57.14	54.79	0.31	0.17
Kent St.	MAC	2.13	1.78	70.00	67.95	0.85	0.64
Robert Morris	NEC	2.13	1.75	66.67	69.03	0.71	0.67
Central Florida	CUSA	2.08	1.72	75.00	69.07	1.04	0.66
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.30	0.37	55.00	54.48	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.29	0.28	78.26	72.34	0.16	0.13
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.25	0.28	27.78	29.58	-0.11	-0.11
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.26	0.25	27.78	29.87	-0.11	-0.10
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.26	0.22	76.19	75.94	0.13	0.12
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.25	0.22	59.09	57.28	0.04	0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.25	0.22	85.71	82.18	0.18	0.14
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.21	0.19	26.32	29.79	-0.10	-0.08
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.23	0.19	59.09	57.76	0.04	0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.26	0.19	18.18	21.13	-0.16	-0.11
UAB	CUSA	0.24	0.19	40.91	39.82	-0.04	-0.04
IUPUI	Sum	0.14	0.18	34.78	35.50	-0.04	-0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.18	0.17	81.82	77.20	0.12	0.09
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.19	0.16	80.77	80.75	0.12	0.10
Portland St.	BSky	0.19	0.16	42.86	45.80	-0.03	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.15	0.15	42.86	43.45	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.19	0.15	47.62	48.82	-0.01	-0.00
Seattle	ind	0.13	0.15	23.53	33.28	-0.07	-0.05
Southern Utah	Sum	0.20	0.13	45.45	44.30	-0.02	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.15	0.13	57.14	60.75	0.02	0.03
Texas St.	Slnd	0.17	0.13	22.22	27.62	-0.09	-0.06
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.13	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.14	0.12	30.00	31.54	-0.06	-0.05
Indiana St.	MVC	0.09	0.12	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.16	0.12	56.52	48.81	0.02	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.14	0.12	76.00	72.50	0.08	0.05
St. Mary's	WCC	0.09	0.12	90.91	87.74	0.07	0.09
Dayton	A10	0.14	0.12	60.87	60.96	0.03	0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.14	0.12	60.87	59.05	0.03	0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.14	0.12	38.10	37.86	-0.03	-0.03
Akron	MAC	0.14	0.12	68.18	67.91	0.05	0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.13	0.12	100.00	94.55	0.13	0.11
Kentucky	SEC	0.09	0.12	95.83	92.57	0.09	0.10
Austin Peay	OVC	0.13	0.12	33.33	35.97	-0.04	-0.03
Louisville	BE	0.14	0.12	78.26	72.66	0.08	0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.12	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.09	0.12	60.00	59.06	0.02	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.09	0.12	77.27	77.67	0.05	0.06
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.14	0.12	4.35	9.66	-0.12	-0.09
Texas Tech	B12	0.10	0.10	31.82	25.98	-0.04	-0.05
North Dakota	GWC	0.10	0.10	33.33	41.31	-0.03	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.10	0.10	60.87	61.37	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.10	38.10	42.78	-0.02	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.16	0.10	30.00	33.20	-0.06	-0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.10	0.10	19.05	24.61	-0.06	-0.05
Georgia St.	CAA	0.16	0.10	66.67	69.69	0.05	0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.15	0.10	47.83	47.87	-0.01	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.15	0.10	40.91	44.03	-0.03	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.10	45.00	41.76	-0.00	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.10	0.00	5.37	-0.05	-0.09
Grambling	SWAC	0.10	0.10	15.00	15.73	-0.07	-0.07
San Diego	WCC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.82	-0.03	-0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.10	0.09	28.57	26.30	-0.04	-0.04
Montana	BSky	0.09	0.09	70.00	73.28	0.04	0.04
Pacific	BW	0.10	0.09	35.00	37.47	-0.03	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.09	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.09	0.09	75.00	76.00	0.05	0.05
Pepperdine	WCC	0.14	0.09	31.82	33.83	-0.05	-0.03
Belmont	ASun	0.14	0.09	69.57	73.28	0.05	0.04
California	P12	0.10	0.09	75.00	74.61	0.05	0.05
Miami OH	MAC	0.10	0.09	30.00	34.15	-0.04	-0.03
Portland	WCC	0.14	0.09	21.74	21.70	-0.08	-0.05
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.09	40.91	42.96	-0.02	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.04	0.09	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.09	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.09	0.09	69.57	71.51	0.04	0.04
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.09	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.10	0.07	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.07	4.76	9.95	-0.05	-0.05
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.07	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.10	0.07	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.07	19.05	25.52	-0.03	-0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.07	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.07	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.06	72.73	71.71	0.05	0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.06	69.57	68.90	0.04	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.06	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.10	0.06	69.57	66.54	0.04	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.10	0.06	30.43	31.43	-0.04	-0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.10	0.06	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.06	21.05	22.46	-0.03	-0.04
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.06	33.33	33.88	-0.02	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.10	0.06	35.00	35.31	-0.03	-0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.06	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.10	0.06	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.06	26.32	28.83	-0.02	-0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.06	73.91	75.49	0.02	0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.06	35.00	35.26	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.06	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.10	0.06	55.56	58.01	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.06	80.00	76.84	0.03	0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.06	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.10	0.06	16.67	23.02	-0.07	-0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.06	61.90	58.59	0.02	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.09	0.06	66.67	68.55	0.03	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.10	0.06	35.00	39.38	-0.03	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.06	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.06	81.82	81.49	0.03	0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.10	0.06	90.48	87.91	0.08	0.05
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.06	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.06	82.61	81.44	0.03	0.04
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.06	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.06	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.06	20.83	20.60	-0.06	-0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.09	0.06	65.00	60.02	0.03	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.04	0.06	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.06	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.06	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.04	0.06	66.67	60.80	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.04	0.06	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.06	76.19	72.91	0.02	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.09	0.06	62.50	62.49	0.02	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.09	0.06	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.10	0.06	60.87	59.76	0.02	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.04	0.06	31.82	42.13	-0.02	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.04	0.06	9.52	11.44	-0.04	-0.05
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.09	0.06	80.00	78.06	0.05	0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.06	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.04	0.06	76.19	70.73	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.06	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.10	0.06	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.04	0.06	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.09	0.06	81.82	80.43	0.06	0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.09	0.06	40.00	40.18	-0.02	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.09	0.06	70.83	68.82	0.04	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.09	0.06	60.87	58.16	0.02	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.09	0.06	21.74	24.58	-0.05	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.06	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.06	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.04	0.06	8.33	10.86	-0.03	-0.04
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.04	0.06	45.45	45.70	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.08	0.06	8.70	12.13	-0.07	-0.04
Monmouth	NEC	0.08	0.06	28.00	28.91	-0.04	-0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.04	0.06	56.52	57.15	0.01	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.04	0.06	44.00	45.89	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.00	0.06	21.74	22.76	-0.00	-0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	17.65	27.10	-0.03	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.03	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.03	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.03	81.82	81.03	0.03	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.03	17.39	24.41	-0.03	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.03	72.22	71.97	0.02	0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	39.13	44.52	-0.01	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.03	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.71	-0.02	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.03	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	82.61	80.42	0.03	0.02
American	Pat	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.79	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.03	14.29	17.17	-0.03	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.03	17.39	20.97	-0.03	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.03	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.05	-0.01	-0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.03	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.03	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	27.27	26.95	-0.02	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.55	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.03	31.82	31.31	-0.02	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.00	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.00	0.03	40.91	34.50	-0.00	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.00	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.00	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.02	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.04	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.04	-0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.03	86.96	85.46	0.04	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.06	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.00	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.04	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.61	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.03	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.04	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.04	0.03	70.83	71.05	0.02	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.04	0.03	26.09	28.60	-0.02	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.04	0.03	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.04	0.03	37.50	38.52	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.04	0.03	56.52	55.95	0.01	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.04	0.03	82.61	84.57	0.03	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.04	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00