Louisiana Lafayette

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	221.0
Current RPI:	221
Expected SOS:	145
Current SOS:	145
Current Record:	12-20
Expected Record:	12-20
Current Conf Record:	9-13
Expected Conf Record:	9-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-3
Current OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC RPI:	264
Expected OOC SOS:	155

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-20	221.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Lafayette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Oakland (152.0)	Sum	H	90-79	W	100%
11-16	Texas Southern (184.0)	SWAC	A	74-71	L	0%
11-18	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	A	63-57	L	0%
11-23	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	A	79-57	L	0%
11-25	Michigan St. (9.0)	B10	A	63-60	L	0%
11-29	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	H	58-72	L	0%
12-1	North Texas (247.0)	SB	A	76-80	W	100%
12-8	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	A	77-72	L	0%
12-11	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	H	77-60	W	100%
12-15	Houston (197.0)	CUSA	A	85-63	L	0%
12-18	Robert Morris (132.0)	NEC	H	61-66	L	0%
12-22	Duquesne (229.0)	A10	H	91-79	W	100%
12-27	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	A	87-70	L	0%
12-29	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	H	79-70	W	100%
1-3	Florida Atlantic (218.0)	SB	A	75-70	L	0%
1-5	Florida International (111.0)	SB	A	75-70	L	0%
1-10	South Alabama (154.0)	SB	H	89-91	L	0%
1-12	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	H	61-56	W	100%
1-17	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	A	72-49	L	0%
1-19	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	A	82-60	L	0%
1-24	Florida International (111.0)	SB	H	75-80	L	0%
1-31	North Texas (247.0)	SB	H	105-74	W	100%
2-2	Troy (279.0)	SB	A	71-52	L	0%
2-10	Louisiana Monroe (305.0)	SB	H	90-66	W	100%
2-14	South Alabama (154.0)	SB	A	88-64	L	0%
2-16	Florida Atlantic (218.0)	SB	H	58-57	W	100%
2-21	Troy (279.0)	SB	H	76-66	W	100%
2-23	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	H	77-88	L	0%
2-28	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	A	77-68	L	0%
3-2	Louisiana Monroe (305.0)	SB	A	63-71	W	100%
3-8	North Texas (247.0)	SB	N	74-55	W	100%
3-9	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	N	81-66	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Lafayette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Louisiana Lafayette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Louisiana Lafayette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	26.52	26.52	35.94	35.94	-7.46	-7.46
Middle Tennessee	SB	5.74	5.74	83.33	83.33	3.82	3.82
North Texas	SB	5.67	5.67	40.74	40.74	-1.05	-1.05
Western Kentucky	SB	4.36	4.36	53.12	53.12	0.27	0.27
Florida International	SB	4.34	4.34	53.33	53.33	0.29	0.29
Arkansas St.	SB	4.26	4.26	60.71	60.71	0.91	0.91
Troy	SB	4.25	4.25	35.48	35.48	-1.23	-1.23
South Alabama	SB	4.20	4.20	53.85	53.85	0.32	0.32
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	4.19	4.19	51.72	51.72	0.14	0.14
Florida Atlantic	SB	4.19	4.19	41.38	41.38	-0.72	-0.72
Louisiana Monroe	SB	4.17	4.17	16.00	16.00	-2.84	-2.84
Texas Southern	SWAC	1.79	1.79	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Lamar	Slnd	1.75	1.75	10.00	10.00	-1.40	-1.40
Michigan St.	B10	1.64	1.64	74.19	74.19	0.79	0.79
Oakland	Sum	1.64	1.64	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Boise St.	MWC	1.64	1.64	64.29	64.29	0.47	0.47
New Mexico St.	WAC	1.62	1.62	68.75	68.75	0.61	0.61
McNeese St.	Slnd	1.61	1.61	37.04	37.04	-0.42	-0.42
Robert Morris	NEC	1.59	1.59	68.75	68.75	0.60	0.60
Houston	CUSA	1.59	1.59	58.62	58.62	0.27	0.27
Duquesne	A10	1.59	1.59	27.59	27.59	-0.71	-0.71
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.29	0.29	37.93	37.93	-0.07	-0.07
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.28	0.28	80.65	80.65	0.17	0.17
UAB	CUSA	0.26	0.26	46.88	46.88	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.22	0.22	29.03	29.03	-0.09	-0.09
IUPUI	Sum	0.20	0.20	13.33	13.33	-0.15	-0.15
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.19	0.19	17.86	17.86	-0.12	-0.12
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.18	0.18	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.16	0.16	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.16	0.16	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.16	0.16	85.19	85.19	0.11	0.11
Stetson	ASun	0.15	0.15	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.15	0.15	76.47	76.47	0.08	0.08
Dayton	A10	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	70.37	70.37	0.04	0.04
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Creighton	MVC	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.10	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Tulsa	CUSA	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Austin Peay	OVC	0.10	0.10	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Murray St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Idaho	WAC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Central Florida	CUSA	0.10	0.10	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.10	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Texas St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Iowa	B10	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.09	0.09	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.09	0.09	35.71	35.71	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Grambling	SWAC	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.08	-0.08
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.07	0.07	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Belmont	OVC	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.05	0.05	18.18	18.18	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	WAC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01