live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 17, 2017.


Louisiana Lafayette

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:111.3
Current RPI:142
Expected SOS:169
Current SOS:239
Current Record:10-6
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:2-3
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:81
Expected OOC SOS:262



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-647.70.23%
22-757.81.40%
21-869.25.80%
20-982.514.32%
19-1097.520.91%
18-11113.424.32%
17-12130.018.17%
16-13147.29.63%
15-14164.54.07%
14-15182.50.89%
13-16200.50.23%
12-17223.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Lafayette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Minnesota (26.1)B10A86-74L0%0.0
11-14Montana St. (290.3)BSkyA84-83L0%0.0
11-21Delaware St. (322.4)MEACH83-82W100%0.0
11-23James Madison (247.7)CAAA70-82W100%0.0
11-27Texas Southern (111.1)SWACH84-73W100%0.0
12-1Nicholls St. (253.6)SlndH101-69W100%0.0
12-3McNeese St. (270.9)SlndA72-92W100%0.0
12-10Louisiana Tech (135.3)CUSAH91-83W100%0.0
12-14Georgia (48.6)SECA73-60L0%0.0
12-17New Orleans (206.4)SlndA71-76W100%0.0
12-20Pepperdine (249.3)WCCH90-64W100%0.0
12-31Arkansas St. (74.6)SBA74-71L0%0.0
1-2Little Rock (206.8)SBA52-69W100%0.0
1-7Louisiana Monroe (274.0)SBH69-60W100%0.0
1-14Georgia Southern (99.3)SBH76-81L0%0.0
1-16Georgia St. (130.9)SBH86-101L0%0.0
1-21Texas St. (241.1)SBA0-066%4.5
1-23UT Arlington (54.9)SBA0-031%-5.5
1-28Little Rock (206.8)SBH0-078%8.6
1-30Arkansas St. (74.6)SBH0-059%2.5
2-4Georgia St. (130.9)SBA0-046%-1.0
2-6Georgia Southern (99.3)SBA0-046%-1.0
2-11Troy (197.2)SBH0-075%7.4
2-13South Alabama (224.5)SBH0-082%10.1
2-18Louisiana Monroe (274.0)SBA0-070%6.0
2-25Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBA0-058%2.2
2-27Appalachian St. (257.1)SBA0-068%5.2
3-2Texas St. (241.1)SBH0-083%10.7
3-4UT Arlington (54.9)SBH0-053%0.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Lafayette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Lafayette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Lafayette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana LafayetteSB26.5626.2963.8964.427.387.58
Louisiana MonroeSB3.524.2926.6729.49-1.64-1.76
UT ArlingtonSB0.174.2268.7571.290.061.80
Texas St.SB0.124.2053.3347.450.01-0.21
Georgia SouthernSB3.414.2060.0058.890.680.75
Arkansas St.SB3.404.2062.5065.590.851.31
Little RockSB3.414.1960.0054.260.680.36
Georgia St.SB3.324.1650.0054.340.000.36
Appalachian St.SB0.282.6528.5731.53-0.12-0.98
Coastal CarolinaSB0.192.6243.7543.66-0.02-0.33
TroySB0.202.6247.0648.86-0.01-0.06
South AlabamaSB0.202.6243.7542.20-0.03-0.41
MinnesotaB103.311.9077.7869.211.840.73
McNeese St.Slnd3.121.8825.0032.35-1.56-0.67
New OrleansSlnd3.121.8550.0053.240.000.12
Texas SouthernSWAC3.301.8452.9468.430.190.68
Nicholls St.Slnd3.121.8238.4637.59-0.72-0.45
James MadisonCAA3.301.8129.4131.35-1.36-0.68
PepperdineWCC3.221.7825.0022.55-1.61-0.98
Montana St.BSky3.301.7825.0036.66-1.65-0.48
Delaware St.MEAC3.301.7818.7530.63-2.06-0.69
GeorgiaSEC3.121.7262.5057.050.780.24
Louisiana TechCUSA3.121.7266.6770.821.040.72
Central ArkansasSlnd0.290.3422.2230.92-0.16-0.13
Northwestern St.Slnd0.330.2225.0033.65-0.16-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.290.2168.7573.530.110.10
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.220.1952.9455.270.010.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.230.1946.1553.09-0.020.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.330.1935.7148.97-0.09-0.00
RiceCUSA0.360.1862.5066.040.090.06
LamarSlnd0.120.1650.0049.630.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.220.1556.2551.290.030.00
AuburnSEC0.200.1564.7154.900.060.01
North TexasCUSA0.090.1526.6732.18-0.04-0.05
TexasB120.100.1538.8935.71-0.02-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.180.1517.6535.23-0.12-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.190.1575.0074.750.090.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.156.2511.84-0.09-0.11
Grambling St.SWAC0.280.1425.0029.58-0.14-0.06
AlabamaSEC0.090.1462.5057.030.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.120.1330.7736.84-0.05-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.120.1330.7743.73-0.05-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.350.1360.0061.060.070.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.230.1323.0830.99-0.12-0.05
TulaneAmer0.240.1323.5320.64-0.13-0.08
North Carolina St.ACC0.220.1268.4252.460.080.01
PurdueB100.310.1278.9576.880.180.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.210.1260.0072.720.040.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1282.3582.810.070.08
UTSACUSA0.100.1243.7538.33-0.01-0.03
HawaiiBW0.090.1240.0044.11-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.290.1261.1162.130.060.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.1223.5324.34-0.05-0.06
Central MichiganMAC0.280.1256.2551.860.040.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1222.2225.54-0.05-0.06
FIUCUSA0.100.1212.5021.92-0.07-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1212.5019.97-0.07-0.07
IdahoBSky0.190.1235.7144.05-0.05-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.1250.0047.940.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.1288.2487.500.000.09
FloridaSEC0.190.1282.3577.050.120.06
ArkansasSEC0.080.1277.7870.240.050.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1217.6524.66-0.06-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1118.7528.13-0.06-0.05
USCP120.210.0984.2172.830.150.04
San DiegoWCC0.200.0947.0640.40-0.01-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0921.4327.22-0.00-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.180.0943.7543.54-0.02-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0970.5958.350.040.02
NJITASun0.190.0941.1845.41-0.03-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0968.4268.140.000.03
MontanaBSky0.090.0952.6360.470.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.0917.6521.39-0.06-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.090.0953.8554.520.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0925.0031.94-0.05-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.100.0920.0019.56-0.06-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.190.0966.6762.900.060.02
Weber St.BSky0.180.0953.8564.270.010.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0961.1158.720.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0936.8448.43-0.02-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0977.7870.840.050.04
DelawareCAA0.090.0929.4127.58-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0943.7548.39-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.190.0981.2572.840.120.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.180.0921.4336.57-0.11-0.02
TCUB120.180.0981.2565.210.110.03
SMUAmer0.210.0678.9576.610.120.03
Washington St.P120.210.0650.0035.480.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.0612.5024.41-0.08-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.090.0626.6740.11-0.04-0.01
SamfordSC0.110.0664.7159.940.030.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0633.3333.25-0.03-0.02
MassachusettsA100.100.0661.1159.260.020.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0633.3333.44-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.100.0658.8254.920.020.01
NorthwesternB100.200.0678.9569.140.120.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0647.0648.43-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.190.0688.8978.090.150.03
AkronMAC0.100.0682.3575.750.060.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0638.8934.53-0.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.100.0622.2235.39-0.05-0.02
ColoradoP120.100.0652.9454.300.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0656.2559.190.010.01
FordhamA100.000.0635.2931.88-0.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.090.06100.0096.930.090.06
Idaho St.BSky0.090.066.6718.54-0.08-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.0655.5653.980.010.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.0612.5033.85-0.07-0.02
MercerSC0.100.0635.2944.11-0.03-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0637.5044.59-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.060.0014.41-0.09-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.100.0617.6527.66-0.06-0.03
PacificWCC0.090.0638.8934.93-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.090.0650.0042.260.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.100.0637.5043.16-0.02-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0621.4326.05-0.00-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0650.0046.700.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.100.0640.0037.09-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.180.0657.8957.060.030.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0612.5019.01-0.00-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.100.0618.7523.94-0.06-0.03
VCUA100.100.0677.7873.850.050.03
WinthropBSth0.100.0673.3373.820.050.03
MississippiSEC0.090.0661.1155.110.020.01
UABCUSA0.000.0658.8263.680.000.02
UMBCAE0.180.0662.5058.780.040.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0664.7170.660.030.02
IndianaB100.090.0666.6763.790.030.02
IowaB100.090.0657.8951.110.010.00
NebraskaB100.100.0650.0043.400.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.170.0645.0038.58-0.02-0.01
ArmyPat0.090.0641.1845.53-0.02-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0627.7834.21-0.04-0.02
DrexelCAA0.090.0635.2935.36-0.03-0.02
ElonCAA0.090.0647.0649.73-0.01-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.090.0652.6348.200.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.090.0644.4445.45-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0688.8987.430.000.04
LehighPat0.090.0656.2566.320.010.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0662.5060.110.020.01
NortheasternCAA0.090.0666.6763.280.030.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0655.5655.700.010.01
TowsonCAA0.090.0650.0052.280.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0688.2484.340.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0642.8647.01-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.090.0656.2539.360.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.170.0644.4442.66-0.02-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0631.2545.29-0.03-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0688.2471.860.000.02
Michigan St.B100.160.0663.1657.650.040.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0661.1156.520.020.01
Penn St.B100.080.0661.1150.520.020.00
SouthernSWAC0.090.0637.5051.02-0.020.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.170.0655.5649.850.02-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0683.3381.270.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0611.1123.08-0.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.120.0372.2264.100.050.01
Oklahoma St.B120.120.0356.2553.910.020.00
Utah St.MWC0.120.0343.7543.64-0.02-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.110.0350.0034.710.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0356.2555.630.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0377.7873.730.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0331.5829.33-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.0388.2484.470.090.02
Texas TechB120.110.0376.4763.780.060.01
UCFAmer0.110.0377.7866.990.060.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0318.7520.55-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.090.0373.3373.080.040.01
BinghamtonAE0.090.0337.5038.14-0.02-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.090.0320.0029.49-0.06-0.01
CaliforniaP120.100.0372.2266.110.040.01
DenverSum0.000.0361.1157.840.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0312.5028.51-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0356.2553.390.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0322.2236.04-0.05-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0355.5660.000.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0322.2227.20-0.05-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0350.0051.390.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0318.7535.76-0.06-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.090.0346.1554.02-0.010.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0333.3342.17-0.03-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0314.2929.37-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0325.0027.36-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0347.3743.64-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.090.0366.6764.760.030.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0358.8252.990.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0347.3745.13-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.0326.6739.94-0.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0333.3330.24-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0314.2928.33-0.07-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0316.6718.35-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.090.0364.7160.770.030.01
CornellIvy0.000.0320.0024.59-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.090.0350.0054.870.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0343.7550.72-0.010.00
George MasonA100.090.0364.7156.510.030.00
George WashingtonA100.090.0350.0047.550.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.090.0364.7147.100.03-0.00
KansasB120.090.0394.4481.660.080.02
LongwoodBSth0.090.0326.6725.66-0.04-0.01
MarquetteBE0.090.0366.6761.460.030.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0331.2526.54-0.03-0.01
OaklandHorz0.090.0370.5972.950.040.01
RichmondA100.090.0364.7158.500.030.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0335.2928.89-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0352.9450.980.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0331.2536.83-0.03-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0362.5055.530.000.00
ArizonaP120.090.0388.8983.150.070.02
BaylorB120.090.0394.1280.670.080.02
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0388.2486.400.070.02
IllinoisB100.000.0361.1153.510.000.00
La SalleA100.090.0366.6762.100.030.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0361.1159.200.020.01
LouisvilleACC0.090.0383.3377.690.060.02
MichiganB100.000.0363.1658.050.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0360.0053.490.020.00
RutgersB100.000.0355.5643.040.00-0.00