live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Louisiana Lafayette

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:143.8
Current RPI:125
Expected SOS:200
Current SOS:117
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:16-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-3
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:172
Expected OOC SOS:276



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-224.00.01%
24-329.00.02%
23-439.50.06%
22-549.20.29%
21-656.11.21%
20-770.93.97%
19-884.97.26%
18-9102.011.86%
17-10120.617.16%
16-11141.317.45%
15-12163.216.29%
14-13186.011.82%
13-14208.36.88%
12-15229.03.79%
11-16249.21.23%
10-17267.60.56%
9-18280.40.11%
8-19293.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Lafayette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Mississippi (78.4)SECA94-76L0%0.0
11-17Savannah St. (300.1)MEACH115-82W100%0.0
11-20Iowa (98.1)B10N0-026%-7.6
11-28McNeese St. (331.7)SlndH0-095%19.5
12-1Nicholls St. (279.7)SlndA0-075%8.3
12-12Louisiana Tech (113.7)CUSAA0-037%-3.9
12-16New Orleans (237.1)SlndH0-083%11.3
12-19Southeastern Louisiana (248.9)SlndH0-084%11.7
12-22Clemson (64.3)ACCA0-018%-11.1
12-29Little Rock (252.9)SBA0-064%4.3
12-31Arkansas St. (221.5)SBA0-057%2.1
1-4Appalachian St. (278.0)SBH0-084%11.8
1-6Coastal Carolina (191.4)SBH0-070%6.2
1-13Louisiana Monroe (194.1)SBH0-074%7.5
1-18UT Arlington (69.5)SBA0-027%-7.3
1-20Texas St. (221.0)SBA0-054%1.3
1-25South Alabama (232.0)SBH0-075%8.2
1-27Troy (191.8)SBH0-069%6.0
2-3Louisiana Monroe (194.1)SBA0-055%1.6
2-8Georgia St. (96.0)SBA0-033%-5.2
2-10Georgia Southern (105.3)SBA0-037%-4.0
2-15Texas St. (221.0)SBH0-073%7.3
2-17UT Arlington (69.5)SBH0-046%-1.3
2-22Troy (191.8)SBA0-050%-0.0
2-24South Alabama (232.0)SBA0-057%2.1
3-1Arkansas St. (221.5)SBH0-075%8.1
3-3Little Rock (252.9)SBH0-080%10.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Lafayette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Lafayette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Lafayette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana LafayetteSB33.3326.3550.0060.570.005.57
Louisiana MonroeSB0.004.6433.3347.810.00-0.20
South AlabamaSB0.004.5333.3346.700.00-0.30
TroySB0.004.5033.3346.850.00-0.28
Little RockSB0.004.500.0037.730.00-1.10
Texas St.SB0.004.5033.3346.810.00-0.29
UT ArlingtonSB0.004.50100.0072.160.001.99
Arkansas St.SB0.004.5033.3342.600.00-0.67
Georgia St.SB4.172.8650.0065.080.000.86
Georgia SouthernSB0.002.86100.0064.520.000.83
Appalachian St.SB0.002.830.0029.190.00-1.18
Coastal CarolinaSB0.002.8333.3348.340.00-0.09
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.002.140.0045.160.00-0.21
New OrleansSlnd0.002.130.0043.830.00-0.26
Nicholls St.Slnd0.002.0650.0044.480.00-0.23
McNeese St.Slnd0.002.060.0023.920.00-1.07
Savannah St.MEAC25.001.890.0026.08-25.00-0.90
MississippiSEC25.001.88100.0052.2025.000.08
ClemsonACC0.001.85100.0053.990.000.15
IowaB100.001.85100.0057.700.000.29
Louisiana TechCUSA0.001.85100.0063.620.000.50
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.350.0022.920.00-0.19
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.340.0035.610.00-0.10
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.300.0036.830.00-0.08
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.280.0038.960.00-0.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.270.0046.000.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.25100.0065.580.000.08
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.25100.0069.350.000.10
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.240.0047.180.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.200.0034.600.00-0.06
RiceCUSA0.000.2033.3336.410.00-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.180.0029.630.00-0.07
UABCUSA0.000.17100.0078.750.000.10
TulaneAmer0.000.17100.0054.140.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.1733.3338.350.00-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1650.0035.330.00-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.140.0032.770.00-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.000.1450.0036.640.00-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.130.0048.070.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC4.170.1333.3357.84-1.390.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.130.0042.850.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.13100.0061.320.000.03
BradleyMVC0.000.1375.0048.770.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.13100.0059.870.000.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.130.0021.380.00-0.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.130.0023.910.00-0.07
IndianaB100.000.1333.3341.220.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.13100.0071.180.000.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.13100.0051.080.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.11100.0076.260.000.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.110.0044.500.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1050.0068.280.000.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1050.0034.730.00-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.1025.0035.000.00-0.03
FIUCUSA0.000.100.0024.970.00-0.05
MemphisAmer0.000.1050.0050.670.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1066.6768.320.000.04
Texas TechB120.000.10100.0062.630.000.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.100.0032.130.00-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1075.0058.930.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.100.0021.590.00-0.06
HowardMEAC0.000.100.0046.080.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.1066.6728.760.00-0.04
Wichita St.Amer0.000.10100.0082.290.000.06
KentuckySEC0.000.0975.0071.830.000.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.0975.0061.940.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0766.6753.670.000.01
TCUB120.000.07100.0061.150.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.070.0049.250.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.070.0045.040.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0733.3334.560.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.070.0042.670.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0775.0048.930.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.070.0051.690.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.070.0026.180.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0733.3341.010.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0775.0051.210.000.00
MaineAE0.000.070.0013.450.00-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0733.3335.150.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0733.3329.980.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.070.0034.040.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0733.3333.620.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.07100.0063.830.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0650.0038.730.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0650.0077.820.000.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0666.6748.280.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0073.730.000.03
SamfordSC0.000.0633.3347.970.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0074.140.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.06100.0071.010.000.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.06100.0044.740.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0029.880.00-0.03
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6767.320.000.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3338.050.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3346.330.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3333.580.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0666.6742.170.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0067.460.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0053.280.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0051.900.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0666.6773.200.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.06100.0068.200.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.060.0057.520.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.06100.0075.130.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.06100.0053.460.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0048.410.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.06100.0061.710.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.06100.0071.700.000.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.060.0035.760.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0078.160.000.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0054.680.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0666.6746.830.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0666.6763.220.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0023.260.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.060.0033.520.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.06100.0060.400.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.060.0036.070.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.06100.0052.950.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0625.0050.070.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.06100.0080.230.000.04
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6750.670.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6757.890.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.06100.0048.350.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0450.0062.630.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0450.0060.380.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0466.6765.630.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.040.0016.000.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0433.3350.150.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.04100.0054.590.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.04100.0082.960.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.030.0045.640.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6768.790.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0031.380.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6749.100.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0366.6763.230.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0333.3350.350.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0375.0072.950.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.030.0036.490.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0366.6774.120.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.030.0039.740.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.03100.0060.370.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0022.610.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.03100.0061.110.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0035.450.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0038.990.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer4.170.03100.0082.354.170.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0022.840.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0070.080.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6762.150.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0333.3351.560.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.400.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0031.810.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0066.010.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3360.630.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0028.770.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0042.160.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0018.970.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0350.0060.130.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0061.780.000.01
ValparaisoMVC0.000.03100.0059.760.000.01
VCUA100.000.0366.6766.590.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0333.3353.190.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3335.210.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0375.0045.290.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.007.670.00-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0052.860.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0350.0035.740.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.580.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0375.0056.120.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0059.240.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0066.990.000.01
MarylandB100.000.03100.0071.740.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0074.500.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6740.070.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0050.450.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0055.040.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0333.3348.480.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.03100.0085.360.000.02
RutgersB100.000.03100.0046.880.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0044.630.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0333.3327.100.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.03100.0062.240.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0050.360.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.030.0064.600.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0366.6766.970.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC4.170.0350.0052.380.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.03100.0053.240.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0333.3352.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.03100.0046.080.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0366.6761.500.000.01
UtahP120.000.03100.0067.160.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6749.990.00-0.00