live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


LIU Brooklyn

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:224.0
Current RPI:224
Expected SOS:338
Current SOS:338
Current Record:19-12
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:13-6
Expected Conf Record:13-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-8
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:221
Expected OOC SOS:317



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-12224.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for LIU Brooklyn.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Loyola MD (212.0)PatH65-61W100%0.0
11-19Northeastern (136.0)CAAN78-74W100%0.0
11-20Boston University (187.0)PatA86-69L0%0.0
11-21Maine (322.0)AEN66-71W100%0.0
11-26UMass Lowell (309.0)AEA78-82W100%0.0
11-30Hartford (327.0)AEA68-75W100%0.0
12-3Incarnate Word (303.0)SlndA90-79L0%0.0
12-6North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACA79-56L0%0.0
12-11St. John's (140.0)BEN74-73W100%0.0
12-14Minnesota (20.0)B10A76-66L0%0.0
12-18Dartmouth (305.0)IvyH68-82L0%0.0
12-21Niagara (275.0)MAACH66-75L0%0.0
12-29Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECH65-67L0%0.0
12-31Bryant (285.0)NECH74-63W100%0.0
1-5Robert Morris (237.0)NECA54-65W100%0.0
1-7St. Francis PA (258.0)NECA70-83W100%0.0
1-12Central Connecticut (344.0)NECH60-49W100%0.0
1-14St. Francis NY (348.0)NECH63-58W100%0.0
1-19Wagner (244.0)NECH76-69W100%0.0
1-21Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECA83-66L0%0.0
1-26Sacred Heart (304.0)NECA57-60W100%0.0
1-28Central Connecticut (344.0)NECA61-52L0%0.0
2-2Robert Morris (237.0)NECH63-67L0%0.0
2-4St. Francis PA (258.0)NECH78-80L0%0.0
2-9Bryant (285.0)NECA85-88W100%0.0
2-11Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECH75-69W100%0.0
2-15St. Francis NY (348.0)NECA45-82W100%0.0
2-18Sacred Heart (304.0)NECH83-82W100%0.0
2-23Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECA58-62W100%0.0
2-25Wagner (244.0)NECA84-88W100%0.0
3-1Robert Morris (237.0)NECH68-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

LIU Brooklyn's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


LIU Brooklyn's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  LIU Brooklyn.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LIU BrooklynNEC26.3826.3862.2662.266.476.47
Robert MorrisNEC5.735.7340.0040.00-1.15-1.15
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.354.3556.2556.250.540.54
St. Francis PANEC4.274.2748.2848.28-0.15-0.15
WagnerNEC4.244.2455.5655.560.470.47
Sacred HeartNEC4.224.2243.3343.33-0.56-0.56
BryantNEC4.204.2037.9337.93-1.01-1.01
Central ConnecticutNEC4.184.1818.5218.52-2.63-2.63
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.164.1633.3333.33-1.39-1.39
St. Francis NYNEC4.114.1110.7110.71-3.23-3.23
UMass LowellAE1.931.9334.4834.48-0.60-0.60
HartfordAE1.881.8829.0329.03-0.79-0.79
MaineAE1.851.8520.0020.00-1.11-1.11
Boston UniversityPat1.801.8053.3353.330.120.12
Loyola MDPat1.771.7748.2848.28-0.06-0.06
DartmouthIvy1.721.7223.0823.08-0.92-0.92
NortheasternCAA1.691.6950.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB101.681.6871.8871.880.740.74
NiagaraMAAC1.641.6428.1228.12-0.72-0.72
St. John'sBE1.641.6443.7543.75-0.20-0.20
Incarnate WordSlnd1.611.6129.1729.17-0.67-0.67
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.611.6172.4172.410.720.72
BinghamtonAE0.320.3231.0331.03-0.12-0.12
LehighPat0.300.3061.2961.290.070.07
BrownIvy0.270.2739.2939.29-0.06-0.06
New HampshireAE0.260.2658.6258.620.050.05
Stony BrookAE0.260.2658.0658.060.040.04
YaleIvy0.240.2460.7160.710.050.05
VermontAE0.240.2484.8584.850.170.17
LafayettePat0.240.2427.5927.59-0.11-0.11
AlbanyAE0.240.2460.6160.610.050.05
TowsonCAA0.230.2359.3859.380.040.04
BucknellPat0.230.2376.4776.470.120.12
ArmyPat0.220.2238.7138.71-0.05-0.05
AmericanPat0.210.2126.6726.67-0.10-0.10
FairfieldMAAC0.210.2153.3353.330.010.01
DuquesneA100.210.2131.2531.25-0.08-0.08
UMBCAE0.200.2057.1457.140.030.03
PennIvy0.190.1946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
RutgersB100.190.1943.7543.75-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.180.1862.5062.500.050.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
NavyPat0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
HarvardIvy0.140.1461.5461.540.030.03
Ohio St.B100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
RiderMAAC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Michigan St.B100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
DePaulBE0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
CornellIvy0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
LongwoodBSth0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.110.1129.0329.03-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
IonaMAAC0.100.1064.7164.710.030.03
NJITASun0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
MarquetteBE0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.100.1068.5768.570.040.04
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
CreightonBE0.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Penn St.B100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
ArkansasSEC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0637.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0619.2319.23-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
LipscombASun0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
IllinoisB100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
IowaB100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
NebraskaB100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01