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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


Incarnate Word

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:295.1
Current RPI:305
Expected SOS:260
Current SOS:251
Current Record:7-15
Expected Record:8-17
Current Conf Record:6-9
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-7
Current OOC Record:1-6
Expected OOC Record:1-6
Expected OOC RPI:311
Expected OOC SOS:158



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-15250.55.07%
9-16275.532.18%
8-17305.447.94%
7-18319.614.80%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Incarnate Word.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Texas (155.2)B12A78-73L0%0.0
11-26Rice (168.2)CUSAH79-87L0%0.0
11-30Texas Tech (104.2)B12A69-48L0%0.0
12-3LIU Brooklyn (230.1)NECH90-79W100%0.0
12-14UNLV (236.8)MWCA92-64L0%0.0
12-17Loyola Marymount (161.3)WCCA91-90L0%0.0
12-21Memphis (105.7)AmerA95-71L0%0.0
12-31Nicholls St. (279.7)SlndA94-84L0%0.0
1-2Southeastern Louisiana (245.3)SlndA74-63L0%0.0
1-5Northwestern St. (324.1)SlndH84-80W100%0.0
1-7New Orleans (165.3)SlndH72-87L0%0.0
1-11Lamar (233.9)SlndA87-72L0%0.0
1-14Houston Baptist (201.2)SlndH82-77W100%0.0
1-21Stephen F. Austin (198.3)SlndH70-68W100%0.0
1-26Abilene Christian (286.6)SlndH82-79W100%0.0
1-28Central Arkansas (289.7)SlndA80-81W100%0.0
2-2McNeese St. (298.5)SlndH79-87L0%0.0
2-4Houston Baptist (201.2)SlndA84-70L0%0.0
2-9Stephen F. Austin (198.3)SlndA87-79L0%0.0
2-11Sam Houston St. (167.7)SlndA72-63L0%0.0
2-15Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.5)SlndH81-97L0%0.0
2-18Sam Houston St. (167.7)SlndH69-53W100%0.0
2-23Nicholls St. (279.7)SlndH0-072%6.4
3-1Abilene Christian (286.6)SlndA0-036%-3.8
3-4Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.5)SlndA0-019%-9.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Incarnate Word's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Incarnate Word's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Incarnate Word.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Incarnate WordSlnd26.3326.3729.0731.54-11.02-9.73
Houston BaptistSlnd5.344.9342.1144.95-0.84-0.50
Sam Houston St.Slnd5.344.9259.0959.960.970.98
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.164.9159.0959.660.570.95
Stephen F. AustinSlnd5.284.9052.3853.990.250.39
Abilene ChristianSlnd3.034.8638.1036.87-0.72-1.27
Nicholls St.Slnd3.094.8231.8230.98-1.12-1.83
LamarSlnd3.163.0347.8350.21-0.140.01
McNeese St.Slnd3.103.0219.0520.09-1.92-1.81
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd3.222.9946.1546.54-0.25-0.21
Central ArkansasSlnd3.162.9928.5729.11-1.36-1.25
New OrleansSlnd3.052.9757.1458.480.440.50
Northwestern St.Slnd3.142.9628.5729.86-1.35-1.19
Texas TechB122.522.2559.2657.950.470.36
RiceCUSA2.572.2362.5062.200.640.54
TexasB122.312.0633.3332.67-0.77-0.72
MemphisAmer2.322.0465.3861.940.720.49
LIU BrooklynNEC2.272.0062.9660.750.590.43
Loyola MarymountWCC2.272.0044.0044.36-0.27-0.23
UNLVMWC2.272.0033.3332.62-0.76-0.70
OklahomaB120.310.2833.3333.59-0.10-0.09
Oklahoma St.B120.260.2866.6765.160.090.08
New MexicoMWC0.240.2257.1456.440.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.190.2228.0028.37-0.08-0.10
North TexasCUSA0.270.2125.0025.84-0.13-0.10
BaylorB120.220.2081.4878.550.140.12
San FranciscoWCC0.140.1964.2964.460.040.05
UTSACUSA0.180.1836.0035.97-0.05-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.230.1875.0071.920.120.08
TulsaAmer0.230.1846.1547.81-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.190.1818.5218.47-0.12-0.11
UABCUSA0.230.1751.8553.220.010.01
KansasB120.160.1689.2987.840.130.12
TCUB120.200.1659.2657.620.040.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1629.1729.85-0.04-0.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.150.1556.0055.900.020.02
NorthwesternB100.200.1571.4368.340.090.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.140.1588.8989.350.110.12
Louisiana MonroeSB0.190.1520.0021.74-0.11-0.08
San DiegoWCC0.140.1540.7440.12-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.140.1424.0022.54-0.08-0.08
UCFAmer0.130.1464.2963.820.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.130.1442.3143.98-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.170.1365.3864.150.050.04
Iowa St.B120.160.1366.6764.750.050.04
Kansas St.B120.120.1360.7159.890.030.03
West VirginiaB120.160.1378.5777.800.090.07
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1251.8551.660.000.00
Texas St.SB0.100.1254.1753.210.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.140.1140.0041.64-0.03-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.140.1148.0047.16-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.140.1116.0016.19-0.09-0.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1148.2848.17-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.1069.2370.270.030.04
SMUAmer0.090.1085.7185.540.070.07
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1050.0049.270.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.080.1078.5778.260.050.06
IndianaB100.110.0853.5752.940.010.00
MarquetteBE0.110.0862.9661.410.030.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0857.6958.050.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0834.7836.95-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.110.0857.1457.270.020.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0825.0027.75-0.02-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0720.0022.21-0.03-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0732.1430.40-0.02-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0778.5776.210.030.04
Georgia TechACC0.090.0755.5652.750.010.00
IdahoBSky0.090.0747.8350.77-0.000.00
KentuckySEC0.100.0782.1481.760.060.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0783.3384.080.030.05
OhioMAC0.090.0768.0068.550.030.03
SamfordSC0.050.0755.5656.300.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0737.0436.81-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.100.0760.0060.170.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0775.0077.120.050.04
BYUWCC0.090.0765.5264.140.030.02
GonzagaWCC0.090.07100.0099.810.090.07
PacificWCC0.040.0732.1432.21-0.02-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.090.0729.6328.42-0.04-0.03
PortlandWCC0.090.0729.6329.44-0.04-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0750.0049.560.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0757.6957.750.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0716.0016.87-0.06-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0741.6742.37-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0761.5462.870.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.080.0764.0064.920.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0712.0013.36-0.06-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0776.0076.570.040.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0737.5042.38-0.02-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0748.1547.60-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.080.0735.7137.15-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0718.5220.01-0.05-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0738.4638.56-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0751.7253.710.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0737.9339.64-0.02-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0744.8343.96-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0710.7111.38-0.06-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0742.3143.88-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.040.0752.0053.230.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.080.0634.6233.56-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.080.0646.4344.09-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.040.0670.3769.130.020.02
Little RockSB0.080.0644.0043.41-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.080.0664.2963.090.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0657.6958.100.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0650.0046.860.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.080.0626.9225.66-0.04-0.03
TempleAmer0.080.0648.2850.61-0.000.00
WyomingMWC0.080.0653.8553.510.010.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0451.8550.690.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0425.9325.77-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0451.7249.530.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0482.1480.780.030.02
USCP120.050.0477.7875.870.030.02
Washington St.P120.050.0442.3139.94-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0432.1430.89-0.02-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0457.6957.630.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0414.2913.58-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0430.7734.71-0.02-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.040.0443.4843.27-0.01-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0444.0045.06-0.01-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.040.0440.9144.15-0.01-0.00
CaliforniaP120.040.0366.6766.210.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0325.9327.44-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0316.0018.13-0.03-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.0320.0020.88-0.03-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0330.4331.13-0.02-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0325.0026.38-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0353.8554.710.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0330.7733.71-0.02-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0385.1985.420.030.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0346.1546.03-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0351.8551.810.000.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0353.5750.750.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0359.2662.730.010.01
ToledoMAC0.040.0348.1549.49-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0353.5753.370.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.040.0326.0925.97-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.040.0330.0029.22-0.02-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.040.0348.1549.03-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.040.0317.2417.48-0.03-0.02
MinnesotaB100.040.0375.0073.470.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0331.0331.60-0.02-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.040.0350.0048.510.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.040.0342.8642.05-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.040.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.040.0361.5459.750.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0369.2368.600.020.01
ArmyPat0.040.0339.2938.46-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.040.0360.7159.670.010.01
ButlerBE0.040.0378.5777.620.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.040.0350.0049.820.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0365.3866.650.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0388.8987.450.000.02
ColoradoP120.040.0355.5655.660.000.00
DukeACC0.040.0378.5776.170.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.040.0346.4343.89-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.040.0329.6331.16-0.02-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.040.0364.0065.600.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0353.8554.930.000.00
IowaB100.040.0353.5751.590.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.040.0355.5655.100.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0340.7442.89-0.01-0.00
LSUSEC0.040.0333.3331.80-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0325.0026.25-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.040.0360.7159.870.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0382.7681.880.030.02
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0344.0046.00-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.040.0323.0823.14-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.040.0385.7185.930.030.02
ProvidenceBE0.040.0360.7160.840.010.01
RichmondA100.040.0359.2659.930.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0333.3334.37-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.040.0344.0042.77-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0370.3770.540.020.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.040.0340.7442.17-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.040.0326.0928.38-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0342.3143.63-0.01-0.00
WisconsinB100.040.0381.4880.840.020.02