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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Incarnate Word

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:338.0
Current RPI:342
Expected SOS:308
Current SOS:240
Current Record:1-12
Expected Record:5-19
Current Conf Record:0-7
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-12
Current OOC Record:1-5
Expected OOC Record:1-5
Expected OOC RPI:292
Expected OOC SOS:119



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-14267.60.11%
9-15286.60.68%
8-16306.02.85%
7-17321.48.76%
6-18332.318.57%
5-19339.825.92%
4-20344.624.10%
3-21347.113.80%
2-22348.44.45%
1-23349.40.75%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Incarnate Word.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-22Loyola Marymount (262.8)WCCH87-91L0%0.0
11-25Houston (42.0)AmerA97-58L0%0.0
11-29Gonzaga (33.9)WCCA103-68L0%0.0
12-16UMKC (261.9)WACH77-73W100%0.0
12-19UTEP (284.2)CUSAA72-66L0%0.0
12-22Florida (25.8)SECA75-60L0%0.0
12-28McNeese St. (297.8)SlndA85-62L0%0.0
12-30Nicholls St. (200.2)SlndA77-60L0%0.0
1-6Sam Houston St. (221.5)SlndH74-85L0%0.0
1-10Central Arkansas (238.1)SlndA92-76L0%0.0
1-13Stephen F. Austin (123.3)SlndA83-63L0%0.0
1-17Lamar (226.5)SlndH69-90L0%0.0
1-20New Orleans (217.6)SlndA74-70L0%0.0
1-24Houston Baptist (333.6)SlndA0-031%-5.5
1-27New Orleans (217.6)SlndH0-035%-4.2
2-3Texas A&M Corpus Chris (335.6)SlndH0-051%0.4
2-7Southeastern Louisiana (205.6)SlndH0-033%-5.0
2-10Abilene Christian (227.3)SlndA0-018%-10.4
2-14Lamar (226.5)SlndA0-012%-13.0
2-17Stephen F. Austin (123.3)SlndH0-014%-11.8
2-21Northwestern St. (337.7)SlndH0-069%5.5
2-24Texas A&M Corpus Chris (335.6)SlndA0-029%-6.0
2-28Houston Baptist (333.6)SlndH0-053%0.9
3-3Abilene Christian (227.3)SlndH0-036%-4.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Incarnate Word's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Incarnate Word's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Incarnate Word.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Incarnate WordSlnd26.4526.385.8817.37-23.34-17.22
LamarSlnd4.295.1446.6751.77-0.290.18
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.585.137.6920.07-0.49-3.07
Houston BaptistSlnd0.625.075.8816.42-0.55-3.41
New OrleansSlnd4.435.0733.3342.15-1.48-0.80
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.605.0652.9451.020.040.10
Stephen F. AustinSlnd4.095.0678.5777.752.342.81
Sam Houston St.Slnd4.063.1740.0047.15-0.81-0.18
McNeese St.Slnd4.293.1623.0828.38-2.31-1.37
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.483.0652.9454.580.030.28
Central ArkansasSlnd4.333.0642.1147.53-0.68-0.15
Nicholls St.Slnd4.213.0646.6749.52-0.28-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.513.057.1414.14-0.43-2.19
HoustonAmer4.102.2177.7872.062.280.97
Loyola MarymountWCC4.082.1923.5326.47-2.16-1.03
GonzagaWCC4.052.1980.0082.702.431.43
UTEPCUSA3.972.1629.4131.75-1.63-0.79
FloridaSEC3.942.1272.2270.651.750.87
UMKCWAC3.852.0822.2225.68-2.14-1.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.220.2845.0045.03-0.02-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.2357.8950.210.000.00
UTSACUSA0.110.2341.1839.66-0.02-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.380.2083.3381.420.250.12
SMUAmer0.120.1970.0070.610.050.08
RiceCUSA0.240.1911.1117.68-0.18-0.12
BaylorB120.220.1957.8953.280.030.01
LSUSEC0.350.1861.1153.190.080.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.410.1833.3332.96-0.14-0.06
San FranciscoWCC0.290.1850.0048.730.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.1626.6729.12-0.06-0.07
MississippiSEC0.220.1652.6345.860.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.240.1527.7838.12-0.11-0.04
LipscombASun0.000.1552.9459.380.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.220.1529.4133.20-0.09-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1566.6755.900.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.240.1552.6355.280.010.02
TulsaAmer0.320.1555.0053.330.030.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.210.1583.3384.250.140.10
TulaneAmer0.220.1563.1657.870.060.02
BYUWCC0.110.1480.9576.240.070.07
PacificWCC0.200.1445.0044.49-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.090.1410.5318.34-0.07-0.09
PortlandWCC0.200.1427.7827.26-0.09-0.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.200.1490.4888.970.160.11
San DiegoWCC0.110.1463.1657.530.030.02
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1436.8435.58-0.03-0.04
UABCUSA0.120.1261.1164.150.030.03
MemphisAmer0.120.1165.0058.540.040.02
USC UpstateASun0.100.1111.1118.00-0.08-0.07
North TexasCUSA0.240.1144.4446.66-0.03-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.240.1144.4450.31-0.030.00
SeattleWAC0.220.1157.8954.500.030.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.220.1166.6766.030.070.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.230.1172.2258.880.100.02
MissouriSEC0.230.1166.6763.150.080.03
ProvidenceBE0.100.1170.0060.470.040.02
Little RockSB0.310.1122.2225.19-0.17-0.05
Wichita St.Amer0.300.1178.9577.380.180.06
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1061.1151.910.020.00
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1089.4785.550.080.07
OaklandHorz0.120.0861.9065.150.030.02
South AlabamaSB0.120.0850.0045.850.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.120.0847.3742.16-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0837.5031.780.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0827.7831.080.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0858.8249.740.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0847.0647.410.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.120.0870.0058.090.050.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.0810.0019.62-0.10-0.05
IdahoBSky0.240.0864.7166.850.070.03
LongwoodBSth0.130.0816.6716.15-0.09-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.0855.5657.250.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.0855.0052.480.010.00
Texas TechB120.000.0878.9571.750.000.03
UC DavisBW0.120.0858.8262.450.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.220.0862.5058.710.060.01
San Diego St.MWC0.230.0858.8262.830.040.02
TexasB120.090.0865.0058.600.030.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.0768.4270.820.040.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0771.4374.670.000.04
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.003.060.00-0.07
DetroitHorz0.000.0721.0525.990.00-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.0770.0071.220.040.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0785.7183.760.000.05
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0768.4254.040.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0742.1146.090.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0770.0060.400.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.210.0778.9576.980.120.04
VillanovaBE0.210.0794.7490.310.190.06
UCFAmer0.000.0768.4260.830.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.110.0741.1838.47-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.200.0778.9574.200.120.03
WashingtonP120.200.0770.0061.460.080.02
HowardMEAC0.200.0710.5326.29-0.16-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.100.0742.1132.46-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.190.0723.5328.71-0.10-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.100.0735.0026.13-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.100.0752.6351.740.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.200.0768.4264.160.070.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0768.4259.020.000.01
KentuckySEC0.100.0773.6868.040.050.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0445.0041.310.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.0447.0654.68-0.010.00
OklahomaB120.000.0477.7868.030.000.02
PittsburghACC0.140.0440.0030.88-0.03-0.02
UtahP120.000.0463.1659.720.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.0466.6765.630.040.01
PresbyterianBSth0.120.0427.7827.11-0.05-0.02
UMBCAE0.120.0455.5655.550.010.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.0456.2556.820.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.0417.6519.29-0.07-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.0466.6765.390.030.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0436.8444.030.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.100.0475.0065.320.050.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0444.4444.910.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.100.0450.0050.860.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.040.0010.260.00-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.0465.0056.350.030.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0463.1661.000.000.01
Oregon St.P120.110.0457.8950.860.020.00
PennIvy0.100.0464.7162.690.030.01
Portland St.BSky0.110.0458.8263.210.020.01
SamfordSC0.000.0427.7832.670.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.100.0473.6872.400.050.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.0472.2272.970.040.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.0442.1143.50-0.02-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.0426.3231.48-0.05-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.110.0417.6523.84-0.07-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.0460.0062.010.020.01
ValparaisoMVC0.000.0447.3748.770.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.110.0431.5836.23-0.04-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0423.5325.630.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.110.0435.2935.54-0.03-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.0437.5037.67-0.03-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0468.4263.610.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0472.2274.730.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.110.0445.0048.57-0.01-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0478.9576.770.000.02
Washington St.P120.110.0447.3741.43-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.0317.6527.34-0.06-0.02
CaliforniaP120.100.0336.8431.11-0.03-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0352.6347.380.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.100.0330.0030.97-0.04-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.100.0338.8944.07-0.02-0.00
LibertyBSth0.100.0350.0054.180.000.00
OregonP120.100.0365.0063.810.030.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.0325.0039.91-0.05-0.01
Saint LouisA100.100.0347.3746.93-0.01-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0326.3230.45-0.05-0.01
UCLAP120.100.0365.0062.050.030.01
Wake ForestACC0.100.0342.1140.46-0.02-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0389.4776.990.000.02
ClemsonACC0.100.0384.2173.180.070.02
CreightonBE0.090.0375.0070.720.050.01
DukeACC0.100.0389.4785.240.080.02
Florida St.ACC0.100.0373.6869.660.050.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.0338.8940.78-0.02-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.090.0327.7829.82-0.04-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.100.0325.0028.25-0.05-0.01
New HampshireAE0.100.0333.3340.10-0.03-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.090.0329.4134.78-0.04-0.01
North FloridaASun0.100.0331.5835.15-0.04-0.01
Ohio St.B100.090.0381.8276.870.060.02
StanfordP120.100.0355.0050.330.010.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0372.2268.930.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.100.0368.4263.970.040.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0320.0040.93-0.05-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.090.0345.0045.47-0.01-0.00