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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Green Bay

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:325.1
Current RPI:338
Expected SOS:302
Current SOS:307
Current Record:5-15
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:3-7
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-10
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:328
Expected OOC SOS:262



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-16260.00.04%
11-17276.61.22%
10-18295.86.38%
9-19312.820.54%
8-20325.732.42%
7-21335.026.47%
6-22341.111.12%
5-23344.61.80%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Green Bay.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Northern Illinois (225.3)MACA85-65L0%0.0
11-20Mississippi St. (110.7)SECA77-68L0%0.0
11-24Florida A&M (340.3)MEACH57-50W100%0.0
11-27Stetson (305.8)ASunH71-83L0%0.0
12-2Belmont (82.3)OVCA86-75L0%0.0
12-6Eastern Illinois (269.1)OVCH59-57W100%0.0
12-9Missouri (45.0)SECA100-77L0%0.0
12-12Indiana St. (140.9)MVCA85-63L0%0.0
12-21Bowling Green (187.8)MACH78-81L0%0.0
12-23Wisconsin (128.8)B10A81-60L0%0.0
12-28Detroit (297.3)HorzH95-83W100%0.0
12-30Oakland (137.4)HorzH80-79W100%0.0
1-2IUPUI (300.2)HorzH63-67L0%0.0
1-4Cleveland St. (322.4)HorzA80-79L0%0.0
1-6Youngstown St. (314.7)HorzA85-74L0%0.0
1-10Illinois Chicago (259.5)HorzA84-73L0%0.0
1-12IUPUI (300.2)HorzA67-61L0%0.0
1-15Milwaukee (242.2)HorzH99-92W100%0.0
1-18Wright St. (110.8)HorzH67-80L0%0.0
1-20Northern Kentucky (90.0)HorzH65-77L0%0.0
1-25Cleveland St. (322.4)HorzH0-065%4.2
1-27Youngstown St. (314.7)HorzH0-068%5.3
2-2Milwaukee (242.2)HorzA0-028%-6.6
2-8Wright St. (110.8)HorzA0-014%-11.8
2-10Northern Kentucky (90.0)HorzA0-05%-17.8
2-16Illinois Chicago (259.5)HorzH0-049%-0.4
2-22Oakland (137.4)HorzA0-012%-13.0
2-24Detroit (297.3)HorzA0-041%-2.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Green Bay's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Green Bay's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Green Bay.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Green BayHorz26.4826.4218.7524.37-16.55-13.54
MilwaukeeHorz3.294.6547.3747.88-0.17-0.20
Illinois ChicagoHorz3.104.5938.8943.81-0.69-0.57
IUPUIHorz5.534.5818.7524.21-3.46-2.36
OaklandHorz2.964.5765.0066.630.891.52
Cleveland St.Horz3.034.5615.7920.18-2.07-2.72
DetroitHorz3.024.5622.2225.69-1.68-2.22
Wright St.Horz3.034.5666.6767.501.011.60
Youngstown St.Horz3.024.5616.6720.38-2.01-2.70
Northern KentuckyHorz3.024.5564.7171.360.891.95
Northern IllinoisMAC2.701.9737.5036.99-0.68-0.51
BelmontOVC2.641.9170.0073.811.050.91
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.701.9131.2535.23-1.01-0.56
Mississippi St.SEC2.561.8770.5957.501.060.28
Bowling GreenMAC2.571.8556.2547.970.32-0.08
WisconsinB102.561.8547.3744.51-0.13-0.20
MissouriSEC2.501.8564.7161.930.740.44
Florida A&MMEAC2.571.8210.5320.28-2.03-1.08
Indiana St.MVC2.501.7941.1844.02-0.44-0.21
StetsonASun2.501.7929.4134.50-1.03-0.55
ToledoMAC0.250.3366.6767.700.080.12
Western MichiganMAC0.250.3352.9452.230.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.270.2844.4444.92-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.260.2578.9574.190.150.12
Murray St.OVC0.330.2570.5975.950.130.13
Eastern MichiganMAC0.270.2446.6746.97-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.270.2236.8432.76-0.07-0.08
Morehead St.OVC0.280.2223.5328.69-0.15-0.09
Ball St.MAC0.270.2261.1158.700.060.04
Fort WayneSum0.260.2152.6351.690.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.350.1942.8635.24-0.05-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1933.3333.77-0.04-0.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.200.1977.7879.150.110.11
Miami OHMAC0.280.1847.0641.41-0.02-0.03
Michigan St.B100.120.1785.0083.200.090.12
BradleyMVC0.210.1665.0057.880.060.03
North FloridaASun0.200.1531.5835.15-0.07-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1531.5832.72-0.05-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.140.1568.4263.960.050.04
AkronMAC0.210.1547.0644.91-0.01-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.260.1568.4270.810.090.06
KentuckySEC0.070.1573.6867.970.030.05
Illinois St.MVC0.200.1347.3746.09-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1370.0068.300.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.200.1226.3231.50-0.10-0.05
OhioMAC0.140.1247.0648.41-0.01-0.00
LipscombASun0.190.1252.9459.340.010.02
NebraskaB100.210.1266.6759.820.070.02
PurdueB100.200.1290.4888.370.160.09
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.1235.2940.48-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.1272.2274.930.030.06
DePaulBE0.130.1242.1134.31-0.02-0.04
IndianaB100.200.1257.8950.710.030.00
Iowa St.B120.210.1261.1147.220.05-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1270.0068.220.050.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.120.009.09-0.13-0.10
MississippiSEC0.070.1252.6345.860.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1236.8435.57-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.200.120.003.07-0.20-0.11
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1057.8966.260.020.03
USC UpstateASun0.140.1011.1118.00-0.11-0.06
Austin PeayOVC0.130.0944.4446.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.0942.1143.51-0.02-0.01
FIUCUSA0.130.0935.2935.54-0.04-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.140.0952.6347.520.01-0.00
ElonCAA0.130.0952.6351.080.010.00
MarquetteBE0.210.0968.4260.550.080.02
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0962.5058.690.020.02
South DakotaSum0.140.0973.6872.380.070.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.200.0944.4450.31-0.020.00
AuburnSEC0.140.0989.4777.000.110.05
Southern MissCUSA0.140.0941.1838.47-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.0950.0052.460.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0957.8953.190.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.130.0952.6343.110.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.130.095.8819.35-0.11-0.06
MichiganB100.070.0976.1970.740.030.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0943.7554.11-0.010.01
SeattleWAC0.130.0957.8954.500.020.01
UCLAP120.130.0965.0062.050.040.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.140.0952.3848.530.01-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0968.4258.980.030.02
ArkansasSEC0.140.0968.4264.200.050.03
CincinnatiAmer0.130.0989.4785.550.100.06
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0961.1151.910.020.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.099.5217.90-0.10-0.06
RutgersB100.130.0955.0046.690.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.200.0980.0078.850.120.05
IllinoisB100.130.0947.3744.27-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.140.0780.9583.260.090.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0716.6724.91-0.05-0.03
NJITASun0.070.0738.8942.61-0.02-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.140.0750.0045.870.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.140.0747.3741.44-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.140.0647.0647.41-0.01-0.00
DrakeMVC0.070.0655.0048.980.01-0.00
IonaMAAC0.070.0660.0064.110.010.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0625.0028.24-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.070.0665.0058.540.020.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0644.4450.08-0.010.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0655.0052.470.000.00
UMBCAE0.070.0655.5655.540.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0647.3748.77-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.070.0675.0077.850.030.04
UCFAmer0.140.0668.4260.860.050.01
Old DominionCUSA0.140.0678.9576.750.080.03
ButlerBE0.070.0666.6763.070.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0661.9063.140.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.070.0621.4326.35-0.04-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0638.8944.08-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0638.8940.78-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0643.7540.93-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0650.0047.660.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0658.8257.140.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0657.1460.410.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0650.0051.640.000.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0647.3746.92-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.070.0635.2942.76-0.02-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0645.0045.49-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0668.4257.740.020.01
IowaB100.070.0647.6244.02-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0618.7536.82-0.05-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0627.7831.11-0.03-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0642.1132.47-0.01-0.02
FloridaSEC0.140.0673.6871.560.070.03
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0666.6755.940.020.01
LSUSEC0.000.0661.1153.170.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0657.1453.050.010.00
TennesseeSEC0.070.0672.2268.930.030.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0610.5327.29-0.05-0.03
KansasB120.060.0684.2179.750.040.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0629.4139.63-0.03-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0637.5045.24-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0655.0050.330.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0630.0032.52-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0627.7831.71-0.03-0.02
SyracuseACC0.060.0668.4261.230.020.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0621.0544.26-0.03-0.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0663.1665.970.020.02
DuquesneA100.070.0370.0058.090.030.01
MaristMAAC0.070.0321.0522.02-0.04-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0358.8262.820.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.0026.12-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.070.0337.5031.76-0.02-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0344.4446.65-0.01-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0352.9452.650.000.00
DrexelCAA0.070.0330.0030.99-0.03-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0337.5037.68-0.02-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0350.0050.860.000.00
PennIvy0.070.0364.7162.720.020.01
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0311.7612.81-0.06-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0316.6724.26-0.05-0.02
DaytonA100.070.0347.3750.94-0.000.00
Little RockSB0.070.0322.2225.25-0.04-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0340.0043.35-0.01-0.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.070.0363.1659.710.020.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0364.7164.570.020.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0384.2178.170.050.02
BaylorB120.060.0361.1156.090.010.00
FordhamA100.060.0331.5829.06-0.02-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0370.0071.230.030.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0320.0041.730.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0370.0065.250.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0315.7920.910.00-0.02
MercerSC0.060.0344.4454.86-0.010.00
Miami FLACC0.060.0377.7870.480.030.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0372.2274.710.030.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0363.6457.630.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0355.5656.740.000.00
Ohio St.B100.060.0380.9576.520.040.02
Penn St.B100.060.0361.9055.760.010.00
PepperdineWCC0.060.0310.5318.34-0.05-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.060.0370.0060.470.020.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0327.7834.500.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0327.7840.97-0.03-0.01
TCUB120.060.0373.6865.600.030.01
TempleAmer0.060.0352.6351.740.000.00
TexasB120.060.0363.1657.630.020.00
UMass LowellAE0.060.0333.3333.87-0.02-0.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0373.6865.260.030.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0394.7486.140.060.02
WashingtonP120.060.0370.0061.440.020.01
XavierBE0.060.0385.7180.080.040.02
YaleIvy0.060.0341.1847.56-0.01-0.00