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Through games of Jan 16, 2017.


Green Bay

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:147.0
Current RPI:125
Expected SOS:182
Current SOS:173
Current Record:9-7
Expected Record:15-13
Current Conf Record:5-1
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:196
Expected OOC SOS:207



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-760.50.02%
20-872.20.33%
19-984.51.59%
18-10100.96.20%
17-11117.815.63%
16-12134.722.89%
15-13152.823.75%
14-14171.317.52%
13-15189.88.89%
12-16208.32.53%
11-17225.30.58%
10-18244.30.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Green Bay.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Pacific (214.1)WCCA76-58L0%0.0
11-19Murray St. (193.9)OVCN93-77L0%0.0
11-20Bowling Green (249.9)MACA61-77W100%0.0
11-21UMKC (215.6)WACN95-77W100%0.0
11-26Central Michigan (180.0)MACH77-89L0%0.0
11-30Kansas St. (71.7)B12A80-61L0%0.0
12-3Toledo (137.9)MACA77-78W100%0.0
12-6Central Michigan (180.0)MACA107-97L0%0.0
12-14Wisconsin (20.2)B10A73-59L0%0.0
12-19SIU Edwardsville (317.3)OVCH94-92W100%0.0
12-29Cleveland St. (219.5)HorzA75-76W100%0.0
12-31Youngstown St. (276.7)HorzA77-90W100%0.0
1-6Milwaukee (264.6)HorzH80-74W100%0.0
1-10Northern Kentucky (150.7)HorzH80-71W100%0.0
1-12Wright St. (155.4)HorzH78-61W100%0.0
1-16Valparaiso (63.0)HorzA80-56L0%0.0
1-20Youngstown St. (276.7)HorzH0-084%11.3
1-23Cleveland St. (219.5)HorzH0-072%6.5
1-27Oakland (111.2)HorzA0-019%-9.7
1-29Detroit (268.5)HorzA0-061%3.0
2-2Illinois Chicago (216.5)HorzH0-065%4.4
2-4Valparaiso (63.0)HorzH0-037%-3.8
2-9Northern Kentucky (150.7)HorzA0-036%-4.0
2-11Wright St. (155.4)HorzA0-042%-2.1
2-18Milwaukee (264.6)HorzA0-057%2.1
2-21Illinois Chicago (216.5)HorzA0-044%-1.8
2-24Oakland (111.2)HorzH0-038%-3.5
2-26Detroit (268.5)HorzH0-080%9.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Green Bay's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Green Bay's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Green Bay.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Green BayHorz26.6926.4762.5058.466.674.48
DetroitHorz0.644.6417.6523.86-0.42-2.43
Wright St.Horz3.584.6162.5056.930.900.64
OaklandHorz0.464.5870.5972.960.192.10
Youngstown St.Horz3.594.5835.2931.84-1.05-1.66
MilwaukeeHorz3.484.5525.0029.04-1.74-1.91
ValparaisoHorz3.304.5576.4776.781.752.44
Cleveland St.Horz3.494.5529.4135.77-1.44-1.29
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.264.5550.0049.850.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz3.394.5562.5059.790.850.89
Central MichiganMAC6.353.6653.8550.660.490.05
ToledoMAC3.512.1553.3353.420.230.15
Bowling GreenMAC3.302.0940.0037.50-0.66-0.52
Murray St.OVC3.492.0343.7553.75-0.440.15
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC3.221.8525.0025.27-1.61-0.91
UMKCWAC3.311.8541.1841.49-0.58-0.31
Kansas St.B123.121.7975.0058.081.560.29
PacificWCC3.121.7935.2932.70-0.92-0.62
WisconsinB103.121.7981.2580.391.951.09
Chicago St.WAC0.390.3416.6718.41-0.26-0.21
Western MichiganMAC0.180.3433.3337.37-0.06-0.08
Miami OHMAC0.280.3440.0034.51-0.06-0.10
Kent St.MAC0.180.3050.0051.780.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.180.3062.5054.170.050.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.310.2753.8558.520.020.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.310.2757.1453.400.040.02
OhioMAC0.180.2771.4369.670.080.11
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.180.2543.7548.36-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.180.2227.7834.95-0.08-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.2255.5655.680.020.03
IllinoisB100.300.2164.7154.360.090.02
AkronMAC0.390.2181.2573.540.250.10
BuffaloMAC0.100.2133.3341.38-0.03-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.280.2164.7161.460.080.05
Austin PeayOVC0.180.1923.5328.53-0.10-0.08
BelmontOVC0.180.1873.3373.100.080.09
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.1661.1162.970.020.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.180.1531.5839.33-0.07-0.03
Michigan St.B100.090.1563.1657.750.020.02
West VirginiaB120.180.1588.2484.630.140.10
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.1353.3361.470.010.03
Morehead St.OVC0.180.1331.2539.84-0.07-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.280.1355.5649.900.03-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.390.1327.7829.47-0.17-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.270.1233.3333.93-0.09-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.170.1263.1663.750.050.03
DePaulBE0.090.1242.1130.46-0.01-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.1275.0076.810.050.06
JacksonvilleASun0.180.1256.2553.440.020.01
KentuckySEC0.170.1288.2487.320.130.09
Montana St.BSky0.300.1229.4138.91-0.12-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.300.1223.5321.79-0.16-0.07
San FranciscoWCC0.090.1261.1158.650.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.090.1212.5019.03-0.07-0.08
Ohio St.B100.180.1261.1156.560.040.02
BYUWCC0.170.1268.4268.160.060.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.1250.0046.720.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.180.0964.7165.930.050.03
EvansvilleMVC0.290.0947.0644.16-0.02-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.290.0982.3582.770.190.06
NevadaMWC0.090.0983.3378.320.060.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.190.0918.7535.75-0.12-0.03
Penn St.B100.090.0961.1150.470.020.00
PurdueB100.180.0977.7876.220.100.05
IndianaB100.180.0966.6763.930.060.02
KansasB120.180.0994.4481.600.160.06
UC IrvineBW0.180.0950.0058.430.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.180.0926.6727.57-0.09-0.04
OklahomaB120.180.0943.7536.61-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0633.3333.23-0.03-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0655.5653.980.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0688.2484.380.070.04
SeattleWAC0.090.0640.0037.09-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0662.5065.700.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0633.3333.47-0.03-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0640.0044.63-0.02-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.190.066.2511.84-0.17-0.05
South DakotaSum0.180.0657.8957.120.030.01
AmericanPat0.090.0623.5329.81-0.05-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.210.0617.6524.63-0.13-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0612.5024.44-0.07-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0620.0029.47-0.00-0.03
DelawareCAA0.090.0629.4127.56-0.04-0.03
DuquesneA100.090.0650.0042.110.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0656.2559.170.010.01
ElonCAA0.000.0647.0649.68-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.090.0612.5021.96-0.07-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0688.8978.090.000.03
Fort WayneSum0.000.0668.7569.250.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0662.5057.280.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.090.0653.3355.860.010.01
Little RockSB0.210.0656.2551.280.030.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0638.8938.40-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0653.3357.150.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0626.3227.77-0.04-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0660.0072.720.020.03
North DakotaBSky0.090.0646.1554.04-0.010.00
North FloridaASun0.090.0618.7530.20-0.06-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0666.6763.320.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0617.6521.39-0.00-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0617.6527.61-0.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.090.0643.7541.36-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.210.0664.7161.890.060.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0652.9454.860.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0643.7538.32-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0647.3745.21-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.210.0642.8647.10-0.03-0.00
CreightonBE0.180.0694.4484.740.160.04
MarquetteBE0.180.0666.6761.490.060.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.180.0650.0051.420.000.00
Saint LouisA100.180.0629.4125.22-0.08-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.090.0662.5057.020.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0622.2225.46-0.05-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.090.06100.0096.910.090.06
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0635.2937.74-0.03-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0650.0048.000.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.090.0672.2264.140.040.02
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0661.1157.840.020.01
MontanaBSky0.090.0652.6360.450.000.01
OregonP120.090.0688.2482.770.070.04
PortlandWCC0.090.0650.0042.270.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.090.0664.7167.000.030.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0688.2487.480.000.04
San DiegoWCC0.090.0647.0640.37-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.090.0693.7580.460.080.04
Iowa St.B120.000.0664.7161.910.000.01
MarylandB100.090.0688.2471.840.070.03
MichiganB100.000.0666.6758.160.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0678.9570.150.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0656.2553.900.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.180.0617.6535.25-0.12-0.02
RutgersB100.090.0655.5643.070.01-0.01
TCUB120.000.0681.2565.210.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.090.0650.0050.990.000.00
TexasB120.090.0641.1835.95-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.090.0676.4763.780.050.02
DrakeMVC0.090.0325.0025.29-0.04-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0321.4327.27-0.05-0.01
HawaiiBW0.090.0340.0044.09-0.02-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0376.4777.720.050.02
IUPUISum0.090.0335.2942.41-0.03-0.00
MississippiSEC0.090.0358.8252.810.020.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0375.0058.080.040.01
StetsonASun0.090.0325.0027.36-0.05-0.01
Texas St.SB0.090.0353.3345.920.01-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.090.0350.0047.440.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0340.0040.97-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.100.0388.2486.430.070.02
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0356.2552.000.010.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0329.4134.21-0.04-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.100.0355.5660.010.010.01
MassachusettsA100.090.0361.1159.210.020.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.0337.5044.66-0.02-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.030.0014.42-0.09-0.02
RiderMAAC0.090.0361.1154.400.020.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0321.4326.05-0.05-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.0350.0047.550.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.100.0350.0040.930.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0352.9455.240.010.00
UCLAP120.090.0394.7489.330.080.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.0388.2484.300.070.02
WyomingMWC0.090.0362.5055.530.020.00
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0350.0034.750.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0322.2230.94-0.05-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0356.2553.650.010.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0312.5020.01-0.07-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0343.7550.72-0.010.00
GeorgetownBE0.090.0352.6348.240.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.090.0326.6740.15-0.04-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.090.036.6718.58-0.08-0.02
IowaB100.000.0357.8950.960.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.370.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.090.0384.2180.580.060.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0378.9569.120.000.01
SyracuseACC0.090.0357.8952.840.010.00
Washington St.P120.090.0350.0035.490.00-0.01