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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Green Bay

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:157.0
Current RPI:157
Expected SOS:222
Current SOS:222
Current Record:16-13
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-7
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:212
Expected OOC SOS:271



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13157.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Green Bay.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Pacific (223.0)WCCA76-58L0%0.0
11-19Murray St. (230.0)OVCN93-77L0%0.0
11-20Bowling Green (225.0)MACA61-77W100%0.0
11-21UMKC (184.0)WACN95-77W100%0.0
11-26Central Michigan (216.0)MACH77-89L0%0.0
11-30Kansas St. (57.0)B12A80-61L0%0.0
12-3Toledo (155.0)MACA77-78W100%0.0
12-6Central Michigan (216.0)MACA107-97L0%0.0
12-14Wisconsin (35.0)B10A73-59L0%0.0
12-19SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCH94-92W100%0.0
12-29Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzA75-76W100%0.0
12-31Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzA77-90W100%0.0
1-6Milwaukee (256.0)HorzH80-74W100%0.0
1-10Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzH80-71W100%0.0
1-12Wright St. (115.0)HorzH78-61W100%0.0
1-16Valparaiso (71.0)HorzA80-56L0%0.0
1-20Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzH89-92L0%0.0
1-23Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzH83-73W100%0.0
1-27Oakland (109.0)HorzA72-80W100%0.0
1-29Detroit (289.0)HorzA93-92L0%0.0
2-2Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzH84-80W100%0.0
2-4Valparaiso (71.0)HorzH86-69W100%0.0
2-9Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzA69-67L0%0.0
2-11Wright St. (115.0)HorzA88-79L0%0.0
2-18Milwaukee (256.0)HorzA56-80W100%0.0
2-21Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzA79-87W100%0.0
2-24Oakland (109.0)HorzH72-85L0%0.0
2-26Detroit (289.0)HorzH89-81W100%0.0
3-5Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzN70-79L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Green Bay's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Green Bay's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Green Bay.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Green BayHorz26.4726.4758.6558.654.584.58
Illinois ChicagoHorz6.116.1142.8642.86-0.87-0.87
MilwaukeeHorz4.654.6531.2531.25-1.74-1.74
Youngstown St.Horz4.594.5933.3333.33-1.53-1.53
Northern KentuckyHorz4.564.5670.0070.001.821.82
DetroitHorz4.524.5221.4321.43-2.58-2.58
Wright St.Horz4.504.5060.7160.710.960.96
OaklandHorz4.474.4775.0075.002.232.23
ValparaisoHorz4.444.4475.8675.862.302.30
Cleveland St.Horz4.444.4428.5728.57-1.90-1.90
Central MichiganMAC3.533.5342.8642.86-0.50-0.50
ToledoMAC2.092.0951.6151.610.070.07
Bowling GreenMAC2.032.0340.0040.00-0.41-0.41
Murray St.OVC1.961.9643.3343.33-0.26-0.26
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.781.7818.5218.52-1.12-1.12
UMKCWAC1.781.7848.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Kansas St.B121.721.7259.3859.380.320.32
PacificWCC1.721.7229.0329.03-0.72-0.72
WisconsinB101.721.7272.7372.730.780.78
Kent St.MAC0.340.3461.7661.760.080.08
Chicago St.WAC0.340.3410.3410.34-0.27-0.27
Western MichiganMAC0.310.3148.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.310.3130.0030.00-0.12-0.12
Northern IllinoisMAC0.280.2841.3841.38-0.05-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.280.2862.5062.500.070.07
OhioMAC0.280.2863.3363.330.070.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.250.2544.4444.44-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.250.2541.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.230.2361.2961.290.050.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.220.2253.3353.330.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
AkronMAC0.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
Grand CanyonWAC0.170.1768.9768.970.070.07
Austin PeayOVC0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
BelmontOVC0.170.1777.7877.780.090.09
West VirginiaB120.160.1676.4776.470.090.09
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Michigan St.B100.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
DePaulBE0.130.1328.1228.12-0.06-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
KentuckySEC0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
BYUWCC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Montana St.BSky0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
Cal PolyBW0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
GonzagaWCC0.080.0896.9796.970.080.08
BaylorB120.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
UC IrvineBW0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
OklahomaB120.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.060.0637.0437.04-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
OregonP120.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.030.03
PortlandWCC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00