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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


Grand Canyon

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:149.6
Current RPI:149
Expected SOS:253
Current SOS:248
Current Record:17-9
Expected Record:19-10
Current Conf Record:8-3
Expected Conf Record:10-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-2
Current OOC Record:9-6
Expected OOC Record:9-6
Expected OOC RPI:202
Expected OOC SOS:285



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-9129.119.16%
19-10147.759.87%
18-11173.120.14%
17-12193.40.83%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Grand Canyon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Duke (11.8)ACCA96-61L0%0.0
11-15Penn St. (86.9)B10A85-76L0%0.0
11-19Albany (141.5)AEN82-77W100%0.0
11-20Marist (284.3)MAACN72-84W100%0.0
11-25Coppin St. (329.4)MEACH70-37W100%0.0
11-28SIU Edwardsville (336.0)OVCH64-76L0%0.0
12-3Louisville (5.3)ACCH70-79L0%0.0
12-7San Diego St. (97.5)MWCH76-72W100%0.0
12-10Illinois Chicago (241.3)HorzH73-69W100%0.0
12-14Arizona (6.9)P12A64-54L0%0.0
12-17Mississippi Valley St. (338.9)SWACH72-62W100%0.0
12-20Alcorn St. (234.1)SWACH63-53W100%0.0
12-22Arkansas Pine Bluff (340.5)SWACH89-49W100%0.0
12-28Cal Poly (314.5)BWH71-64W100%0.0
12-31UC Riverside (319.3)BWA76-56L0%0.0
1-7Utah Valley (231.1)WACH82-72W100%0.0
1-12New Mexico St. (56.2)WACA81-69L0%0.0
1-14UT Rio Grande Valley (300.9)WACA66-79W100%0.0
1-21Seattle (287.0)WACH61-59W100%0.0
1-26UMKC (182.1)WACA83-77L0%0.0
1-28Chicago St. (314.1)WACA77-85W100%0.0
2-4Cal St. Bakersfield (77.9)WACH62-65L0%0.0
2-9UT Rio Grande Valley (300.9)WACH76-57W100%0.0
2-11New Mexico St. (56.2)WACH83-71W100%0.0
2-16Seattle (287.0)WACA58-61W100%0.0
2-18Utah Valley (231.1)WACA71-77W100%0.0
2-23Chicago St. (314.1)WACH0-095%18.1
2-25UMKC (182.1)WACH0-075%7.4
3-4Cal St. Bakersfield (77.9)WACA0-026%-6.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Grand Canyon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Grand Canyon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Grand Canyon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Grand CanyonWAC26.3126.3464.5564.327.657.54
SeattleWAC4.394.2742.8640.97-0.63-0.77
Chicago St.WAC2.694.2512.5012.53-2.02-3.18
Utah ValleyWAC4.374.2438.1039.68-1.04-0.88
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC2.684.2468.1870.120.981.71
UMKCWAC2.654.2245.8345.82-0.22-0.35
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC4.334.2230.4330.55-1.69-1.64
New Mexico St.WAC4.334.2286.3686.813.153.10
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.131.9114.8118.71-1.50-1.20
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.121.9123.0825.10-1.14-0.95
UC RiversideBW2.051.8522.7325.52-1.12-0.91
Alcorn St.SWAC2.061.8454.5551.960.190.07
Cal PolyBW2.001.8226.0928.78-0.96-0.77
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.001.8246.1544.71-0.15-0.19
DukeACC2.021.8177.7875.381.120.92
ArizonaP121.961.7988.8987.271.531.33
MaristMAAC1.991.7825.0025.32-1.00-0.88
Penn St.B101.991.7848.1547.03-0.07-0.11
AlbanyAE1.991.7860.7161.870.430.42
LouisvilleACC1.961.7577.7877.801.090.97
Coppin St.MEAC1.921.7226.9226.98-0.89-0.79
San Diego St.MWC1.921.7260.0060.180.380.35
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.921.7211.5412.30-1.48-1.30
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.250.3312.5014.87-0.19-0.23
UC DavisBW0.330.2656.0055.930.040.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.230.2540.7442.17-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.270.2457.1456.440.040.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.230.2437.5040.16-0.06-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.250.2459.2662.730.050.06
Long Beach St.BW0.240.2240.7442.89-0.04-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.240.2251.8554.430.010.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.220.2159.2659.740.040.04
Notre DameACC0.190.2175.0074.370.100.10
Alabama St.SWAC0.260.2128.0028.91-0.11-0.09
UTSACUSA0.240.1936.0035.97-0.07-0.05
HawaiiBW0.230.1948.0047.45-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.190.1846.4344.09-0.01-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.220.184.005.36-0.21-0.16
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.1837.5042.38-0.04-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.180.1830.7734.71-0.07-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.180.1848.0047.16-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.160.1665.5264.140.050.05
UtahP120.200.1660.0060.170.040.03
Fresno St.MWC0.160.1657.6957.750.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.160.1665.3864.150.050.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.190.1560.8762.050.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.110.1562.9662.450.030.04
WashingtonP120.190.1533.3332.52-0.06-0.05
Green BayHorz0.150.1557.6958.300.020.03
GonzagaWCC0.190.15100.0099.810.190.15
ValparaisoHorz0.150.1578.5777.380.080.08
CaliforniaP120.190.1566.6766.210.060.05
IndianaB100.170.1453.5752.940.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.170.1364.0065.600.050.04
DenverSum0.160.1357.1456.680.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.160.1350.0049.820.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.120.1343.4843.27-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.120.1330.7732.11-0.05-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.120.1340.9144.15-0.02-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.160.1340.0041.64-0.03-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.160.1342.3143.98-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.120.1234.6233.56-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.1220.0022.21-0.09-0.07
Murray St.OVC0.110.1246.1546.49-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.150.1242.3139.94-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.110.1274.0773.500.050.06
UNLVMWC0.150.1235.7134.80-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.110.1271.4368.340.050.04
Georgia TechACC0.140.1255.5652.750.020.01
SienaMAAC0.100.1148.2848.54-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.130.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.140.1159.2657.930.030.02
PittsburghACC0.140.1153.5750.750.010.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.1020.0021.74-0.07-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.1023.0823.14-0.04-0.05
SMUAmer0.070.1085.7185.540.050.07
PortlandWCC0.120.0929.6329.44-0.05-0.04
ColoradoP120.120.0955.5655.660.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0926.0925.97-0.04-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.120.0940.7440.12-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.0957.1457.070.020.01
San FranciscoWCC0.110.0964.2964.460.030.03
Saint LouisA100.070.0932.1431.02-0.03-0.04
Texas St.SB0.110.0954.1753.210.010.01
DePaulBE0.070.0932.1430.89-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0946.1546.96-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0953.8551.910.010.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.0910.7111.38-0.09-0.07
DrakeMVC0.070.0922.2223.45-0.04-0.05
IowaB100.080.0953.5751.590.010.00
KansasB120.070.0989.2987.840.060.07
West VirginiaB120.070.0978.5777.800.040.05
WisconsinB100.070.0981.4880.840.050.06
UCLAP120.080.0988.8988.050.060.07
ElonCAA0.110.0955.5656.900.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0944.0045.06-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.100.0951.8553.680.000.01
MaineAE0.100.0917.2417.48-0.07-0.06
VermontAE0.100.0982.7682.940.070.06
CanisiusMAAC0.100.0858.6258.690.020.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0878.5776.210.040.04
Miami FLACC0.070.0870.3767.240.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.070.0882.1480.660.040.05
PurdueB100.100.0882.1480.780.070.05
SyracuseACC0.070.0858.6257.910.010.01
VirginiaACC0.100.0866.6767.600.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.070.0857.1455.800.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0716.0016.87-0.06-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.040.0763.6464.970.010.02
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0712.0013.36-0.06-0.05
UCFAmer0.080.0764.2963.820.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.080.0760.8760.770.020.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0634.7833.41-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.080.0655.5656.300.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0630.7730.10-0.03-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0640.7440.19-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.040.0634.4834.78-0.01-0.02
CreightonBE0.040.0677.7875.390.020.03
HoustonAmer0.080.0670.3769.130.030.02
LamarSlnd0.080.0650.0052.050.000.00
MemphisAmer0.080.0666.6763.170.030.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0651.8550.690.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0651.7250.330.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0651.8551.810.000.00
South DakotaSum0.040.0662.9662.810.010.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.040.0642.8643.32-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.040.0653.8552.820.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.040.0650.0049.750.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.040.0626.0925.92-0.02-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0642.8643.65-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0629.1731.48-0.03-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0650.0049.560.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0648.0047.41-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0625.0026.71-0.04-0.03
DetroitHorz0.070.0622.2222.38-0.04-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.040.0641.6743.49-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0625.0026.25-0.04-0.03
NevadaMWC0.070.0678.5778.260.040.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.040.0662.9662.600.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0650.0046.860.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0633.3334.37-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0628.0029.86-0.03-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0632.1431.91-0.03-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0629.6331.16-0.03-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0648.2848.17-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0657.6956.380.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0633.3334.84-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.030.0630.0029.22-0.01-0.02
New HampshireAE0.070.0657.6958.050.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.070.0660.7159.030.010.01
UMBCAE0.070.0661.5460.470.020.01
BrownIvy0.070.0637.5037.60-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0688.8987.450.050.04
ColgatePat0.070.0631.0332.74-0.03-0.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0651.8551.210.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.070.0650.0050.080.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0632.1430.40-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0651.8551.130.000.00
IllinoisB100.070.0655.5655.020.010.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0662.0762.320.020.01
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0633.3332.68-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0675.0073.470.020.03
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0682.7681.880.040.04
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0631.0331.60-0.03-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0651.7249.530.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0635.7136.66-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0666.6766.780.020.02
RiderMAAC0.070.0653.3353.310.000.00
RutgersB100.070.0642.8642.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0657.1457.270.010.01
StanfordP120.070.0650.0047.370.00-0.00
USCP120.030.0677.7875.870.020.03
Virginia TechACC0.070.0670.3769.250.030.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0652.0053.050.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0369.2370.270.020.01
MontanaBSky0.040.0350.0050.340.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0369.2368.600.010.01
BelmontOVC0.040.0380.0079.920.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0330.4331.13-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.040.0338.4639.08-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0351.8551.270.000.00
MarquetteBE0.040.0362.9661.410.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0344.0046.00-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.040.0329.6328.42-0.02-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.040.0372.7374.040.020.01
StetsonASun0.040.0329.6328.76-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0337.0436.81-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.040.0377.7876.390.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.040.0362.9661.340.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.040.0364.0064.920.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.040.0350.0050.440.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.040.0346.1547.50-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.040.0325.9327.44-0.02-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.0320.0020.88-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.040.0350.0049.130.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.040.0342.8642.57-0.01-0.00
HowardMEAC0.040.0319.2321.44-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0330.7733.71-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0351.7253.710.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0346.1546.92-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.030.003.38-0.04-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0375.0077.120.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.040.0324.0022.54-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.040.0346.1547.81-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.040.0353.8553.510.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0340.9140.59-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.31-0.02-0.01
Little RockSB0.040.0344.0043.41-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0366.6765.160.010.01
UABCUSA0.040.0351.8553.220.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0359.0960.220.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0027.77-0.02-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0381.4878.550.020.02
ButlerBE0.030.0378.5777.620.020.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0337.0435.10-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0335.7134.58-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0382.1480.600.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.030.0360.0060.590.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0362.9661.470.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0366.6764.750.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0350.0049.370.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0355.5655.100.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0382.1481.760.020.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0357.6957.630.010.00
MarylandB100.030.0377.7876.990.020.02
MichiganB100.030.0364.2963.090.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.9325.77-0.02-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0344.0042.70-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0353.5752.340.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.5462.870.010.01
OregonP120.030.0385.7185.930.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0314.2913.58-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0344.8343.96-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.8642.05-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.8551.660.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0386.2186.330.020.02