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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Grand Canyon

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:148.5
Current RPI:193
Expected SOS:293
Current SOS:326
Current Record:14-6
Expected Record:21-8
Current Conf Record:4-1
Expected Conf Record:11-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:17-1
Current OOC Record:10-5
Expected OOC Record:10-5
Expected OOC RPI:210
Expected OOC SOS:327



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-6106.73.89%
22-7122.818.72%
21-8141.434.26%
20-9160.727.70%
19-10179.712.29%
18-11197.82.73%
17-12215.50.38%
16-13229.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Grand Canyon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Florida A&M (340.5)MEACH67-51W100%0.0
11-13Robert Morris (152.6)NECH75-61W100%0.0
11-18Little Rock (294.3)SBH76-51W100%0.0
11-20Norfolk St. (301.3)MEACH85-60W100%0.0
11-25San Diego (143.0)WCCH62-72L0%0.0
12-2UC Riverside (302.5)BWH68-56W100%0.0
12-5St. John's (95.5)BEN60-68L0%0.0
12-9Grambling St. (287.3)SWACH87-53W100%0.0
12-11North Carolina Central (266.8)MEACH64-59W100%0.0
12-13Boise St. (39.3)MWCA85-80L0%0.0
12-18Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACH71-38W100%0.0
12-21Longwood (334.3)BSthH86-56W100%0.0
12-23Louisville (22.8)ACCA74-56L0%0.0
12-27Morgan St. (310.3)MEACN100-74W100%0.0
12-30Illinois (163.9)B10A62-58L0%0.0
1-6Seattle (199.9)WACA57-73W100%0.0
1-11New Mexico St. (43.2)WACH59-70L0%0.0
1-13UT Rio Grande Valley (227.1)WACH84-71W100%0.0
1-18Chicago St. (336.6)WACA58-86W100%0.0
1-20UMKC (261.9)WACA69-86W100%0.0
1-27Utah Valley (84.1)WACA0-048%-0.4
2-1UMKC (261.9)WACH0-094%17.7
2-3Chicago St. (336.6)WACH0-099%27.5
2-8UT Rio Grande Valley (227.1)WACA0-075%7.5
2-10New Mexico St. (43.2)WACA0-027%-6.8
2-17Cal St. Bakersfield (216.6)WACA0-075%7.6
2-22Seattle (199.9)WACH0-086%11.8
2-24Utah Valley (84.1)WACH0-070%6.0
3-3Cal St. Bakersfield (216.6)WACH0-090%14.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Grand Canyon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Grand Canyon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Grand Canyon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Grand CanyonWAC26.3326.3266.6769.418.7810.22
SeattleWAC2.904.2661.1158.140.640.69
New Mexico St.WAC2.764.2582.3584.061.782.90
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.704.2347.3747.44-0.14-0.22
Utah ValleyWAC0.334.2266.6768.070.111.53
Chicago St.WAC2.644.200.003.26-2.64-3.93
UMKCWAC2.634.2022.2226.45-1.46-1.98
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.264.1929.4134.51-0.11-1.30
Norfolk St.MEAC2.771.9018.7536.05-1.73-0.53
Grambling St.SWAC2.631.9038.8945.55-0.58-0.17
San DiegoWCC2.771.8861.1156.010.620.23
Florida A&MMEAC2.571.8510.5320.27-2.03-1.10
IllinoisB102.711.8542.1141.67-0.43-0.31
UC RiversideBW2.571.8518.7524.72-1.60-0.94
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.711.8450.0056.790.000.25
Morgan St.MEAC2.641.8435.2941.90-0.78-0.30
Robert MorrisNEC2.711.8160.0062.420.540.45
Little RockSB2.701.8123.5326.09-1.43-0.87
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.501.780.0010.60-2.50-1.40
LongwoodBSth2.561.7517.6516.75-1.66-1.17
Boise St.MWC2.501.7277.7876.161.390.90
LouisvilleACC2.501.7277.7868.821.390.65
St. John'sBE2.501.7244.4440.16-0.28-0.34
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.190.2750.0052.500.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.2566.6765.390.050.08
Delaware St.MEAC0.210.210.008.42-0.21-0.18
HamptonMEAC0.060.2125.0043.18-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.330.2031.5840.82-0.12-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.1956.2556.820.010.03
New MexicoMWC0.200.1945.0048.57-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1931.5836.43-0.05-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.200.1890.4888.970.160.14
UC IrvineBW0.130.1830.0039.95-0.05-0.04
HowardMEAC0.140.1810.5326.29-0.11-0.09
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.200.1825.0039.91-0.10-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.200.1633.3334.10-0.07-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.280.159.5217.86-0.23-0.10
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1515.0020.28-0.10-0.09
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.1555.5657.250.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.1526.3230.45-0.03-0.06
BYUWCC0.130.1580.9576.240.080.08
PortlandWCC0.260.1527.7827.26-0.12-0.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.270.1578.9574.200.150.07
Georgia TechACC0.190.1452.6343.040.01-0.02
UNLVMWC0.250.1473.6865.250.120.04
IdahoBSky0.000.1364.7166.850.000.04
Central MichiganMAC0.070.1362.5058.710.020.02
HawaiiBW0.000.1368.7564.010.000.04
Idaho St.BSky0.070.1343.7540.91-0.01-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.210.1342.1143.50-0.03-0.02
UC DavisBW0.070.1358.8262.450.010.03
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1245.0041.31-0.01-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.200.1226.3231.48-0.10-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.130.1250.0051.390.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.130.1227.7827.11-0.06-0.06
DukeACC0.000.1289.4785.240.000.08
Loyola MarymountWCC0.210.1227.7829.10-0.09-0.05
Miami FLACC0.130.1277.7870.410.070.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.127.6923.24-0.11-0.06
North TexasCUSA0.190.1244.4446.66-0.02-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1265.0056.350.040.01
IowaB100.190.1247.6243.94-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.060.1268.4260.530.020.02
WisconsinB100.130.1250.0046.270.00-0.01
PurdueB100.130.1290.4888.390.100.09
St. Francis PANEC0.190.1152.9459.250.010.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.1110.0016.77-0.10-0.08
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1115.7922.64-0.09-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.130.1117.6527.34-0.08-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.1133.3339.89-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.1138.8943.36-0.01-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1120.0040.93-0.08-0.02
DelawareCAA0.070.1047.3743.00-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.1066.6763.450.020.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.1011.1115.30-0.05-0.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0943.7549.11-0.01-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.0917.6519.29-0.09-0.06
ManhattanMAAC0.140.0950.0050.860.000.00
CaliforniaP120.140.0936.8431.11-0.04-0.03
George MasonA100.210.0945.0041.29-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.070.0973.6868.040.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.140.0970.5969.630.060.04
South DakotaSum0.130.0973.6872.400.060.04
Air ForceMWC0.070.0937.5031.78-0.02-0.03
PacificWCC0.140.0945.0044.49-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.140.0910.5318.34-0.11-0.06
BradleyMVC0.130.0965.0057.890.040.01
San Diego St.MWC0.130.0958.8262.830.020.02
SMUAmer0.130.0970.0070.610.050.04
Texas St.SB0.130.0957.8950.210.020.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.0960.0062.010.030.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.0926.6729.12-0.06-0.04
NorthwesternB100.130.0955.0050.370.010.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0942.1144.98-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.130.0963.1661.000.030.02
Oklahoma St.B120.130.0968.4254.040.050.01
Utah St.MWC0.130.0945.0045.47-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.130.0942.1134.30-0.02-0.03
NebraskaB100.130.0963.6459.480.030.02
IndianaB100.070.0960.0052.880.010.00
Seton HallBE0.130.0975.0067.910.070.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.0852.3848.530.01-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.0830.0033.48-0.05-0.03
BryantNEC0.130.089.5217.12-0.10-0.05
ArizonaP120.000.0780.0078.940.000.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.0768.4264.160.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0750.0054.900.000.01
UCLAP120.000.0765.0062.050.000.02
DavidsonA100.070.0658.8261.440.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0629.4134.780.00-0.02
USCP120.070.0671.4368.300.030.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0641.1839.660.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0656.2557.430.000.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0671.4374.670.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0623.5328.200.00-0.03
CampbellBSth0.070.0647.0647.41-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0625.0031.44-0.03-0.02
DetroitHorz0.070.0621.0525.99-0.04-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0638.8946.05-0.01-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0638.8940.78-0.02-0.01
High PointBSth0.070.0643.7549.22-0.01-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.067.6920.08-0.06-0.04
Kansas St.B120.070.0675.0065.320.030.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0616.6724.90-0.04-0.03
LibertyBSth0.070.0650.0054.180.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0640.0043.34-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.070.0664.7162.690.020.02
RadfordBSth0.070.0657.8958.880.010.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0647.3746.93-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0672.2272.970.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0652.6358.610.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.070.0611.1118.00-0.05-0.04
WashingtonP120.070.0670.0061.460.030.01
Washington St.P120.070.0647.3741.43-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0678.9577.380.040.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0059.430.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.140.0668.4263.610.050.02
Arizona St.P120.140.0678.9576.160.080.03
MichiganB100.140.0676.1970.800.070.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0631.5836.230.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0627.7831.08-0.03-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.0645.0049.28-0.01-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0627.7838.120.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0655.0048.980.01-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.070.0666.6765.550.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.0680.9583.260.000.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0683.3381.420.050.04
NevadaMWC0.070.0685.7182.120.050.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0641.1839.14-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0644.4450.08-0.010.00
OaklandHorz0.060.0661.9065.150.010.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0611.1117.68-0.05-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0650.0048.730.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0611.7612.80-0.05-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3332.960.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0636.8432.75-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0668.4263.970.020.02
UMBCAE0.060.0655.5655.550.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0652.9452.250.000.00
WyomingMWC0.070.0661.1156.790.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.140.0644.4444.91-0.02-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.130.0680.0078.870.080.03
MemphisAmer0.140.0665.0058.540.040.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.0672.2258.880.060.01
ButlerBE0.000.0666.6763.070.000.02
CreightonBE0.070.0675.0070.720.030.02
GeorgetownBE0.130.0668.4254.080.050.00
Michigan St.B100.060.0685.7183.760.040.04
MissouriSEC0.130.0666.6763.150.040.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0670.0060.470.030.01
RutgersB100.000.0655.0046.650.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.070.0694.7490.310.060.05
XavierBE0.070.0685.7180.060.050.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0681.8276.870.040.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.130.0652.9455.030.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.060.0642.1140.46-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.120.0670.0058.090.050.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0623.5332.57-0.03-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.070.0673.6869.660.030.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0640.0042.51-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0640.0030.88-0.01-0.02
SienaMAAC0.130.0628.5729.93-0.05-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0633.3335.21-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.000.0694.7486.110.000.04
Virginia TechACC0.070.0670.0060.400.030.01
WagnerNEC0.060.0664.7164.560.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.070.0342.1139.93-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0352.6347.500.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.070.0345.0043.49-0.01-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0342.1145.98-0.01-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0328.5731.24-0.03-0.01
NavyPat0.070.0360.0055.160.010.00
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.0026.13-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.070.0363.1665.980.020.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0380.0076.040.040.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0389.4776.990.060.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0358.8249.740.01-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0320.0032.24-0.04-0.01
CornellIvy0.070.0333.3333.23-0.02-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0331.5832.71-0.03-0.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0370.5973.150.030.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0357.1453.040.010.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0378.9576.770.040.02
Portland St.BSky0.070.0358.8263.210.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.070.0336.8445.19-0.02-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0368.7567.610.030.01
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0347.3748.77-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.070.0325.0024.14-0.03-0.02
ColoradoP120.070.0360.0053.720.010.00
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0347.3746.09-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0357.8946.220.01-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0330.0032.54-0.03-0.01
OregonP120.070.0365.0063.810.020.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0316.6724.44-0.04-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0350.0045.850.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0337.5033.77-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.000.0338.8944.430.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0344.4446.01-0.01-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0342.1132.46-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0360.0064.130.010.01
MarylandB100.060.0366.6763.130.020.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0363.6457.610.020.00
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0337.5045.24-0.02-0.00
Oregon St.P120.070.0357.8950.860.010.00
Penn St.B100.000.0361.9055.820.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0350.0051.640.000.00
UCFAmer0.070.0368.4260.830.020.01
VCUA100.070.0360.0059.710.010.01
AkronMAC0.060.0347.0644.92-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.070.0371.4370.250.030.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0361.1158.710.010.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0365.0054.600.020.00
BuffaloMAC0.060.0372.2274.940.030.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0361.9063.170.010.01
ClemsonACC0.070.0384.2173.180.050.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0330.0030.97-0.02-0.01
FordhamA100.060.0331.5829.03-0.02-0.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0325.0027.93-0.03-0.01
MercerSC0.060.0344.4454.87-0.010.00
Murray St.OVC0.060.0370.5975.960.030.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0325.0028.02-0.03-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0376.1972.570.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0344.4450.31-0.010.00
North FloridaASun0.060.0331.5835.15-0.02-0.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0365.0065.330.020.01
SamfordSC0.060.0327.7832.67-0.03-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0355.0052.480.010.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0368.4261.280.000.01
TexasB120.060.0365.0058.600.020.00
UABCUSA0.060.0361.1164.150.010.01
UtahP120.060.0363.1659.720.020.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0321.0523.52-0.03-0.01