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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Grand Canyon

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:131.0
Current RPI:131
Expected SOS:259
Current SOS:259
Current Record:20-9
Expected Record:20-9
Current Conf Record:11-3
Expected Conf Record:11-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-2
Current OOC Record:9-6
Expected OOC Record:9-6
Expected OOC RPI:203
Expected OOC SOS:289



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-9131.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Grand Canyon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Duke (6.0)ACCA96-61L0%0.0
11-15Penn St. (101.0)B10A85-76L0%0.0
11-19Albany (129.0)AEN82-77W100%0.0
11-20Marist (276.0)MAACN72-84W100%0.0
11-25Coppin St. (336.0)MEACH70-37W100%0.0
11-28SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCH64-76L0%0.0
12-3Louisville (7.0)ACCH70-79L0%0.0
12-7San Diego St. (98.0)MWCH76-72W100%0.0
12-10Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzH73-69W100%0.0
12-14Arizona (2.0)P12A64-54L0%0.0
12-17Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACH72-62W100%0.0
12-20Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACH63-53W100%0.0
12-22Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACH89-49W100%0.0
12-28Cal Poly (297.0)BWH71-64W100%0.0
12-31UC Riverside (330.0)BWA76-56L0%0.0
1-7Utah Valley (206.0)WACH82-72W100%0.0
1-12New Mexico St. (59.0)WACA81-69L0%0.0
1-14UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACA66-79W100%0.0
1-21Seattle (287.0)WACH61-59W100%0.0
1-26UMKC (184.0)WACA83-77L0%0.0
1-28Chicago St. (318.0)WACA77-85W100%0.0
2-4Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACH62-65L0%0.0
2-9UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACH76-57W100%0.0
2-11New Mexico St. (59.0)WACH83-71W100%0.0
2-16Seattle (287.0)WACA58-61W100%0.0
2-18Utah Valley (206.0)WACA71-77W100%0.0
2-23Chicago St. (318.0)WACH82-59W100%0.0
2-25UMKC (184.0)WACH84-77W100%0.0
3-4Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACA52-58W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Grand Canyon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Grand Canyon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Grand Canyon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Grand CanyonWAC26.2626.2668.2968.299.619.61
New Mexico St.WAC4.354.3585.7185.713.113.11
Utah ValleyWAC4.324.3246.1546.15-0.33-0.33
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.314.3169.2369.231.661.66
UMKCWAC4.294.2946.4346.43-0.31-0.31
SeattleWAC4.284.2840.0040.00-0.86-0.86
Chicago St.WAC4.264.2611.1111.11-3.31-3.31
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC4.234.2325.9325.93-2.04-2.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.931.9322.5822.58-1.06-1.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.901.9020.6920.69-1.11-1.11
Alcorn St.SWAC1.861.8653.5753.570.130.13
UC RiversideBW1.851.8519.2319.23-1.14-1.14
DukeACC1.831.8376.4776.470.970.97
Cal PolyBW1.821.8232.1432.14-0.65-0.65
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.811.8143.3343.33-0.24-0.24
ArizonaP121.791.7987.8887.881.351.35
AlbanyAE1.781.7862.5062.500.440.44
MaristMAAC1.771.7725.8125.81-0.86-0.86
Penn St.B101.771.7743.7543.75-0.22-0.22
LouisvilleACC1.771.7774.1974.190.860.86
Coppin St.MEAC1.721.7224.1424.14-0.89-0.89
San Diego St.MWC1.721.7258.0658.060.280.28
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.721.7214.8114.81-1.21-1.21
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.310.3118.5218.52-0.20-0.20
UC DavisBW0.280.2862.5062.500.070.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.250.2567.6567.650.090.09
UC IrvineBW0.240.2457.5857.580.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.240.2441.9441.94-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.230.2343.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.230.2373.5373.530.110.11
New MexicoMWC0.220.2254.8454.840.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.210.2140.6240.62-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
SouthernSWAC0.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.200.2023.3323.33-0.11-0.11
HawaiiBW0.180.1844.8344.83-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.170.176.906.90-0.15-0.15
Jackson St.SWAC0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Arizona St.P120.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
UtahP120.150.1562.0762.070.040.04
Fresno St.MWC0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
WashingtonP120.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
ValparaisoHorz0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
Wright St.Horz0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.140.1496.9796.970.130.13
UNLVMWC0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
IndianaB100.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
Michigan St.B100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.120.1235.7135.71-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
North FloridaASun0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.120.1273.3373.330.050.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
NorthwesternB100.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
Washington St.P120.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
SienaMAAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
UCLAP120.110.1187.8887.880.080.08
Georgia TechACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.110.1184.8584.850.070.07
ClemsonACC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
PittsburghACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
PortlandWCC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.090.0936.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0944.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
DePaulBE0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0910.0010.00-0.07-0.07
WisconsinB100.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
DrakeMVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0829.4129.41-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
KansasB120.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
PurdueB100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
SyracuseACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
VirginiaACC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
HartfordAE0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
MaineAE0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Miami FLACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0612.9012.90-0.05-0.05
UCFAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.05-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
MemphisAmer0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0637.0437.04-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
NevadaMWC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01