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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Grambling St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:287.3
Current RPI:266
Expected SOS:348
Current SOS:334
Current Record:7-12
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:4-3
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-12
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:217
Expected OOC SOS:214



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12223.00.06%
17-13234.30.90%
16-14247.95.09%
15-15261.813.56%
14-16276.223.51%
13-17290.925.25%
12-18305.118.38%
11-19317.29.08%
10-20326.53.29%
9-21334.60.80%
8-22339.00.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Grambling St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10VCU (127.8)A10A94-65L0%0.0
11-16Iowa (156.4)B10A85-74L0%0.0
11-18South Dakota (98.5)SumA84-55L0%0.0
11-21Bethune Cookman (288.9)MEACA87-78L0%0.0
11-25UT Rio Grande Valley (227.1)WACA76-82W100%0.0
11-27North Texas (217.6)CUSAA82-77L0%0.0
12-1Georgia Tech (146.9)ACCA63-64W100%0.0
12-9Grand Canyon (148.5)WACA87-53L0%0.0
12-12Louisiana Monroe (291.0)SBA59-57L0%0.0
12-16Southeastern Louisiana (205.6)SlndA67-68W100%0.0
12-21East Carolina (280.0)AmerA76-68L0%0.0
12-28Seattle (199.9)WACA93-63L0%0.0
1-1Alabama A&M (348.5)SWACH64-71L0%0.0
1-3Alabama St. (343.4)SWACH66-74L0%0.0
1-6Southern (304.4)SWACA80-69L0%0.0
1-8Alcorn St. (341.5)SWACA61-72W100%0.0
1-13Prairie View A&M (266.2)SWACH80-71W100%0.0
1-15Texas Southern (226.8)SWACH79-78W100%0.0
1-20Jackson St. (293.7)SWACA45-72W100%0.0
1-27Arkansas Pine Bluff (293.5)SWACA0-043%-1.9
1-29Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACA0-066%4.5
2-3Southern (304.4)SWACH0-059%2.4
2-5Alcorn St. (341.5)SWACH0-071%6.1
2-10Prairie View A&M (266.2)SWACA0-029%-6.1
2-12Texas Southern (226.8)SWACA0-017%-10.7
2-17Jackson St. (293.7)SWACH0-065%4.3
2-24Arkansas Pine Bluff (293.5)SWACH0-066%4.5
2-26Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACH0-084%10.9
3-1Alabama A&M (348.5)SWACA0-065%4.3
3-3Alabama St. (343.4)SWACA0-057%2.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Grambling St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Grambling St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Grambling St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Grambling St.SWAC26.3326.3548.2452.25-0.931.19
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.564.280.009.22-0.56-3.49
Jackson St.SWAC3.134.2541.1845.28-0.55-0.40
Alabama St.SWAC2.984.2511.1119.16-2.32-2.62
SouthernSWAC3.034.2427.7838.61-1.35-0.97
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.414.2333.3339.52-0.14-0.89
Alabama A&MSWAC2.924.225.2613.27-2.61-3.10
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.924.2226.3240.22-1.38-0.83
Texas SouthernSWAC2.924.2221.0540.88-1.69-0.77
Alcorn St.SWAC2.974.2118.7528.35-1.86-1.82
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.981.8747.3746.64-0.16-0.13
Grand CanyonWAC2.771.8468.4270.191.020.74
SeattleWAC2.761.7855.5652.820.310.10
IowaB102.771.7845.0042.08-0.28-0.28
Louisiana MonroeSB2.781.7521.4326.28-1.59-0.83
Georgia TechACC2.841.7555.5644.470.32-0.19
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.721.7556.2557.070.340.25
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.841.7547.0650.80-0.170.03
North TexasCUSA2.841.7541.1844.75-0.50-0.18
East CarolinaAmer2.631.6738.8930.04-0.58-0.67
South DakotaSum2.631.6772.2271.341.170.71
VCUA102.631.6757.8958.370.420.28
New Mexico St.WAC0.200.2383.3384.250.130.16
TulaneAmer0.220.2163.1657.870.060.03
UMKCWAC0.270.2121.0524.76-0.16-0.10
Chicago St.WAC0.200.200.003.06-0.20-0.19
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.1729.4133.20-0.03-0.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.1766.6766.030.020.06
BaylorB120.210.1757.8953.280.030.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.280.1710.0019.62-0.22-0.10
SMUAmer0.150.1770.0070.610.060.07
UABCUSA0.130.1661.1164.150.030.05
OregonP120.200.1665.0063.810.060.05
Texas St.SB0.150.1457.8950.210.020.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1472.2272.970.060.07
Louisiana TechCUSA0.220.1452.6355.280.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.130.1466.6765.550.040.04
SamfordSC0.140.1427.7832.67-0.06-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.140.1489.4785.550.110.10
MichiganB100.190.1376.1970.800.100.06
UT ArlingtonSB0.230.1260.0062.010.050.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.150.1245.0049.28-0.02-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.230.1283.3381.420.150.08
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1225.0028.02-0.07-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.1250.0051.390.000.00
TCUB120.220.1275.0067.830.110.04
TroySB0.000.1238.8944.430.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.220.1268.4260.830.080.03
DukeACC0.140.1289.4785.240.110.08
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.1115.0020.28-0.10-0.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.1147.0654.68-0.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.210.1141.1838.47-0.04-0.03
IllinoisB100.200.1145.0043.62-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.119.5217.86-0.11-0.07
Washington St.P120.210.1147.3741.43-0.01-0.02
HoustonAmer0.140.1178.9573.000.080.05
ToledoMAC0.140.1166.6767.670.050.04
TulsaAmer0.140.1155.0053.330.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.1126.3231.48-0.03-0.04
BYUWCC0.070.1180.9576.240.040.06
ClemsonACC0.070.1184.2173.180.050.05
MinnesotaB100.070.1163.6457.610.020.02
OhioMAC0.130.1147.0648.43-0.01-0.00
Ohio St.B100.130.1181.8276.870.080.06
UNLVMWC0.070.1173.6865.250.030.03
UtahP120.070.1163.1659.720.020.02
HawaiiBW0.070.1168.7564.010.020.03
Little RockSB0.150.0922.2225.19-0.09-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.170.097.1414.82-0.14-0.06
Iowa St.B120.140.0957.8946.220.02-0.01
YaleIvy0.150.0941.1847.61-0.03-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.150.0928.5731.24-0.06-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.0970.0068.210.060.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.097.6923.24-0.11-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0937.5037.67-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.070.0968.4263.610.030.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0917.6534.76-0.04-0.03
RiceCUSA0.140.0911.1117.68-0.11-0.06
South FloridaAmer0.210.0935.0026.13-0.06-0.04
MarylandB100.140.0866.6763.130.050.02
St. BonaventureA100.070.0866.6768.750.020.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0831.5836.43-0.03-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0844.4444.91-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.220.0863.1661.000.060.02
GeorgetownBE0.140.0868.4254.080.050.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0868.4254.040.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.130.0868.4263.970.050.02
WinthropBSth0.140.0850.0059.430.000.02
DuquesneA100.070.0870.0058.090.030.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0868.4261.280.020.02
VirginiaACC0.140.0894.7486.110.120.06
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0627.7831.08-0.04-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0650.0045.850.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.170.0680.0078.870.100.04
CreightonBE0.080.0675.0070.720.040.03
DenverSum0.070.0633.3336.47-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.070.0652.6351.680.000.00
LSUSEC0.080.0661.1153.190.020.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0644.4450.31-0.010.00
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0644.4450.08-0.010.00
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0630.0032.54-0.03-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0636.8435.58-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0642.8635.22-0.01-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.140.0638.8946.05-0.03-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0652.9452.670.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0637.5045.240.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.150.0631.5836.23-0.06-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.0616.6724.90-0.09-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.140.0617.6523.84-0.09-0.03
WashingtonP120.140.0670.0061.460.060.01
DrakeMVC0.130.0655.0048.980.01-0.00
UCLAP120.140.0665.0062.050.040.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0661.1158.710.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0662.5058.710.020.01
CharlotteCUSA0.140.0623.5325.63-0.08-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0652.6347.380.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.060.008.42-0.14-0.05
FIUCUSA0.000.0635.2935.540.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0625.0043.18-0.03-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0665.0058.540.000.01
MercerSC0.070.0644.4454.87-0.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0670.0068.290.030.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0633.3340.35-0.02-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0655.5657.250.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.140.0663.1657.530.040.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0655.0052.480.010.00
UTEPCUSA0.070.0633.3334.10-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.070.0641.1839.66-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.140.0636.8431.11-0.04-0.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0647.3746.93-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.070.0678.9569.820.040.02
NebraskaB100.070.0663.6459.480.020.01
Old DominionCUSA0.140.0678.9576.770.080.03
RutgersB100.130.0655.0046.650.01-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0622.2228.57-0.04-0.02
LibertyBSth0.070.0650.0054.180.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0672.2258.880.030.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0635.2940.46-0.02-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0547.0644.920.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0568.4259.020.020.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0544.4446.01-0.01-0.00
DaytonA100.070.0547.3750.94-0.000.00
DePaulBE0.070.0542.1134.30-0.01-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0531.5832.71-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.070.0531.5829.03-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0545.0043.49-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0580.9583.260.040.04
IndianaB100.060.0560.0052.880.010.00
KansasB120.070.0584.2179.760.050.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0578.9574.200.000.03
New MexicoMWC0.070.0545.0048.57-0.01-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0557.1453.040.010.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0555.0050.370.010.00
OaklandHorz0.070.0561.9065.150.020.02
Penn St.B100.060.0561.9055.820.010.01
RichmondA100.070.0531.5834.35-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0570.5969.630.030.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0545.0045.470.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.060.0570.0060.400.030.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0542.1140.460.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0538.8935.38-0.01-0.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0561.1156.790.010.01
George MasonA100.000.0545.0041.290.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0537.5031.780.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0561.9063.170.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0566.6763.450.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0529.4134.780.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0557.8950.860.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0545.0044.490.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0533.3332.960.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0556.2557.430.000.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.090.0327.7838.12-0.04-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0366.6765.390.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0358.8249.740.01-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0311.1115.30-0.05-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0358.8257.130.010.00
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0311.7612.80-0.05-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0321.0523.52-0.04-0.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0371.4374.670.030.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0321.0525.99-0.04-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.035.8819.39-0.07-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0343.7540.91-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.037.6920.080.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.080.0350.0054.900.000.00
PortlandWCC0.070.0327.7827.26-0.03-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0390.4888.970.060.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0343.7549.110.00-0.00
ValparaisoMVC0.080.0347.3748.77-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.070.0378.9576.980.040.02
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0350.0053.280.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.070.0323.5328.20-0.04-0.01
CampbellBSth0.070.0347.0647.41-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0352.3848.530.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0320.0023.33-0.04-0.02
HowardMEAC0.070.0310.5326.29-0.06-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0344.4446.03-0.01-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0333.3333.76-0.02-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0316.6716.15-0.04-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0372.2274.730.000.01
OklahomaB120.070.0377.7868.030.040.01
RadfordBSth0.070.0357.8958.880.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0357.1460.410.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0326.3230.45-0.03-0.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.070.0333.3336.93-0.02-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0352.6351.740.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.070.0330.0039.95-0.03-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.31-0.04-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0368.4270.820.000.01
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0378.9577.380.040.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0365.0054.600.000.00
BucknellPat0.070.0361.9068.000.020.01
ColoradoP120.060.0360.0053.720.010.00
DavidsonA100.000.0358.8261.440.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0373.6869.660.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0366.6755.900.020.00
La SalleA100.070.0340.0042.69-0.01-0.00
MarquetteBE0.070.0368.4260.530.020.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0377.7870.410.040.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0385.7183.760.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0376.1972.570.040.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0365.0056.350.000.00
North FloridaASun0.070.0331.5835.15-0.02-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0341.1839.14-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0340.0030.88-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.060.0390.4888.390.050.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0383.3381.450.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0350.0051.640.000.00
Seton HallBE0.070.0375.0067.910.030.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0337.5033.77-0.02-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0372.2268.930.030.01
TexasB120.070.0365.0058.600.020.00
VMISC0.070.0325.0024.14-0.03-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0350.0046.270.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.070.0368.7563.660.030.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0368.4269.260.030.01