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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Grambling St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:317.0
Current RPI:317
Expected SOS:347
Current SOS:347
Current Record:13-17
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-10
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:333
Expected OOC SOS:316



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17317.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Grambling St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11East Carolina (213.0)AmerA72-57L0%0.0
11-17North Carolina A&T (350.0)MEACH59-55W100%0.0
11-19Providence (56.0)BEA71-54L0%0.0
11-22Virginia (18.0)ACCA90-34L0%0.0
11-25UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACN101-93L0%0.0
11-26Savannah St. (279.0)MEACN110-104W100%0.0
11-30Miami OH (302.0)MACA78-76L0%0.0
12-2Kent St. (142.0)MACA86-57L0%0.0
12-17Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAN89-55L0%0.0
12-28Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBA81-45L0%0.0
1-2Alabama St. (342.0)SWACA73-69L0%0.0
1-4Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACA67-69W100%0.0
1-7Southern (320.0)SWACH79-87L0%0.0
1-9Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACH67-62W100%0.0
1-14Texas Southern (108.0)SWACA76-55L0%0.0
1-16Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACA94-82L0%0.0
1-21Jackson St. (323.0)SWACH72-57W100%0.0
1-28Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACH61-53W100%0.0
1-30Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACH77-74W100%0.0
2-4Southern (320.0)SWACA67-66L0%0.0
2-6Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACA75-65L0%0.0
2-11Texas Southern (108.0)SWACH70-77L0%0.0
2-13Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACH61-58W100%0.0
2-18Jackson St. (323.0)SWACA59-62W100%0.0
2-25Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACA58-78W100%0.0
2-27Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACA84-80L0%0.0
3-2Alabama St. (342.0)SWACH82-69W100%0.0
3-4Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACH78-57W100%0.0
3-7Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACA77-81W100%0.0
3-10Texas Southern (108.0)SWACA62-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Grambling St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Grambling St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Grambling St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Grambling St.SWAC26.5226.5247.5047.50-1.33-1.33
Texas SouthernSWAC6.066.0664.5264.521.761.76
Prairie View A&MSWAC5.965.9635.7135.71-1.70-1.70
Alcorn St.SWAC4.524.5251.8551.850.170.17
SouthernSWAC4.434.4339.2939.29-0.95-0.95
Alabama St.SWAC4.414.4121.4321.43-2.52-2.52
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.404.4020.0020.00-2.64-2.64
Jackson St.SWAC4.364.3644.4444.44-0.48-0.48
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.314.3121.4321.43-2.46-2.46
Alabama A&MSWAC4.314.317.417.41-3.67-3.67
Louisiana TechCUSA1.861.8666.6766.670.620.62
Kent St.MAC1.771.7760.6160.610.380.38
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.721.723.453.45-1.60-1.60
East CarolinaAmer1.721.7243.7543.75-0.22-0.22
VirginiaACC1.721.7267.7467.740.610.61
Miami OHMAC1.721.7227.5927.59-0.77-0.77
Savannah St.MEAC1.691.6942.3142.31-0.26-0.26
ProvidenceBE1.691.6961.2961.290.380.38
Louisiana MonroeSB1.671.6720.0020.00-1.00-1.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.671.6721.4321.43-0.95-0.95
Grand CanyonWAC0.220.2268.9768.970.080.08
UABCUSA0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
SeattleWAC0.190.1937.0437.04-0.05-0.05
Texas St.SB0.190.1958.0658.060.030.03
BaylorB120.190.1977.4277.420.100.10
OhioMAC0.180.1863.3363.330.050.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.170.1773.3373.330.080.08
Southern MissCUSA0.170.1724.1424.14-0.09-0.09
MemphisAmer0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.160.1626.6726.67-0.07-0.07
HoustonAmer0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.140.1458.8258.820.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.1417.8617.86-0.09-0.09
Western MichiganMAC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.140.1412.9012.90-0.10-0.10
UTSACUSA0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
AkronMAC0.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
BuffaloMAC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
RiceCUSA0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
LouisvilleACC0.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
HamptonMEAC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.1110.0010.00-0.09-0.09
Georgia St.SB0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
CaliforniaP120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Ohio St.B100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
LamarSlnd0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Little RockSB0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
TulaneAmer0.110.1119.3519.35-0.07-0.07
George MasonA100.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
UMKCWAC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
NebraskaB100.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Kansas St.B120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
UtahP120.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
WisconsinB100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Fort WayneSum0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Notre DameACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
UCFAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
CreightonBE0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
PittsburghACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.060.06
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
ToledoMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
TempleAmer0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
James MadisonCAA0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
DuquesneA100.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
George WashingtonA100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
WagnerNEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00