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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


Grambling St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:331.4
Current RPI:330
Expected SOS:349
Current SOS:344
Current Record:9-15
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:7-7
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-11
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:337
Expected OOC SOS:333



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-15316.39.35%
12-16326.730.78%
11-17333.838.61%
10-18339.918.67%
9-19343.62.58%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Grambling St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11East Carolina (227.3)AmerA72-57L0%0.0
11-17North Carolina A&T (350.3)MEACH59-55W100%0.0
11-19Providence (62.8)BEA71-54L0%0.0
11-22Virginia (21.4)ACCA90-34L0%0.0
11-25UT Rio Grande Valley (300.9)WACN101-93L0%0.0
11-26Savannah St. (317.6)MEACN110-104W100%0.0
11-30Miami OH (302.7)MACA78-76L0%0.0
12-2Kent St. (188.1)MACA86-57L0%0.0
12-17Louisiana Tech (114.0)CUSAN89-55L0%0.0
12-28Louisiana Monroe (304.5)SBA81-45L0%0.0
1-2Alabama St. (338.1)SWACA73-69L0%0.0
1-4Alabama A&M (350.7)SWACA67-69W100%0.0
1-7Southern (286.7)SWACH79-87L0%0.0
1-9Alcorn St. (234.1)SWACH67-62W100%0.0
1-14Texas Southern (128.4)SWACA76-55L0%0.0
1-16Prairie View A&M (297.0)SWACA94-82L0%0.0
1-21Jackson St. (314.5)SWACH72-57W100%0.0
1-28Arkansas Pine Bluff (340.5)SWACH61-53W100%0.0
1-30Mississippi Valley St. (338.9)SWACH77-74W100%0.0
2-4Southern (286.7)SWACA67-66L0%0.0
2-6Alcorn St. (234.1)SWACA75-65L0%0.0
2-11Texas Southern (128.4)SWACH70-77L0%0.0
2-13Prairie View A&M (297.0)SWACH61-58W100%0.0
2-18Jackson St. (314.5)SWACA59-62W100%0.0
2-25Arkansas Pine Bluff (340.5)SWACA0-045%-1.3
2-27Mississippi Valley St. (338.9)SWACA0-042%-2.1
3-2Alabama St. (338.1)SWACH0-056%1.6
3-4Alabama A&M (350.7)SWACH0-081%9.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Grambling St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Grambling St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Grambling St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Grambling St.SWAC26.3926.4139.3642.17-5.62-4.14
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC3.084.5914.8117.36-2.16-3.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.944.5929.1733.62-2.06-1.50
Alabama St.SWAC2.954.5925.0025.72-1.48-2.23
Alcorn St.SWAC4.944.5752.3849.950.24-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC4.914.5656.0060.160.590.93
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3.044.5623.0824.04-1.63-2.37
Alabama A&MSWAC2.914.564.175.06-2.67-4.09
Jackson St.SWAC4.994.5540.9145.64-0.91-0.40
SouthernSWAC4.914.5543.4843.10-0.64-0.63
Louisiana TechCUSA2.301.9868.0069.210.830.76
Kent St.MAC2.201.9053.8553.550.170.14
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.121.850.003.50-2.12-1.72
East CarolinaAmer2.161.8544.4442.02-0.24-0.29
Miami OHMAC2.161.8528.0027.41-0.95-0.83
VirginiaACC2.161.8465.3866.480.660.61
Savannah St.MEAC2.081.8234.7835.69-0.63-0.52
ProvidenceBE2.121.8259.2659.530.390.35
Louisiana MonroeSB2.081.7916.6718.94-1.39-1.11
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.081.7925.0025.72-1.04-0.87
Grand CanyonWAC0.250.2565.3865.420.080.08
Tennessee TechOVC0.210.2237.0436.81-0.05-0.06
UABCUSA0.200.2251.8553.220.010.01
SeattleWAC0.160.2139.1337.81-0.03-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.250.1955.5652.750.030.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.160.1975.0077.120.080.10
Southern MissCUSA0.170.1924.0022.54-0.09-0.10
MemphisAmer0.250.1966.6763.170.080.05
BaylorB120.250.1981.4878.550.160.11
OhioMAC0.160.1868.0068.550.060.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1840.7440.19-0.02-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.210.1648.1548.38-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.200.1620.0020.88-0.12-0.09
TroySB0.120.1553.8552.820.010.01
Texas St.SB0.160.1554.1753.210.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.200.1525.9327.44-0.10-0.07
Central MichiganMAC0.160.1553.8551.910.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.200.1556.0055.900.020.02
HoustonAmer0.160.1570.3769.130.060.06
CaliforniaP120.170.1366.6766.210.060.04
HamptonMEAC0.160.1341.6743.49-0.03-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.160.1330.7733.71-0.06-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.160.1210.7111.38-0.13-0.10
Georgia St.SB0.120.1260.0059.400.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1248.1547.60-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.160.1214.2913.58-0.12-0.09
Ohio St.B100.160.1253.5752.340.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.120.1262.9661.340.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.120.1242.3143.63-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.120.1222.2223.45-0.07-0.06
TulaneAmer0.160.1218.5218.47-0.10-0.08
AkronMAC0.080.1277.7876.390.040.06
BuffaloMAC0.160.1250.0050.440.000.00
Little RockSB0.120.1244.0043.41-0.01-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.160.1248.0047.41-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.160.1236.0035.97-0.04-0.03
RiceCUSA0.120.1264.0063.500.030.03
TCUB120.120.1259.2657.620.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1276.0076.570.060.06
LouisvilleACC0.150.1278.5778.520.090.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1044.0045.06-0.02-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1046.1546.92-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.1028.0029.86-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.120.0953.5751.590.010.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.0925.9326.05-0.06-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.0957.6955.370.020.01
HowardMEAC0.120.0919.2321.44-0.08-0.05
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0957.6958.100.010.02
MarshallCUSA0.130.0953.8554.710.010.01
NebraskaB100.120.0944.0042.70-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0951.8551.270.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0940.7440.75-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.080.0925.9325.77-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.120.0950.0052.050.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0959.2659.740.010.02
Iowa St.B120.080.0966.6764.750.030.03
ToledoMAC0.120.0948.1549.49-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.120.0962.9661.470.030.02
Fort WayneSum0.080.0960.0060.590.020.02
UCFAmer0.110.0964.2963.820.030.02
VillanovaBE0.110.0989.6688.760.090.07
West VirginiaB120.080.0978.5777.800.040.05
CincinnatiAmer0.110.0988.8987.450.090.06
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0765.3864.150.030.02
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0742.8643.65-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0757.1457.070.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0764.2964.460.030.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.040.0620.0022.21-0.03-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0669.5771.400.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0612.0011.80-0.06-0.05
DuquesneA100.090.0635.7134.58-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.040.0683.3384.080.030.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0658.3359.220.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0660.8762.050.020.02
UMKCWAC0.080.0648.0046.99-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.040.0634.7836.63-0.01-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0622.2222.75-0.05-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0669.2368.600.030.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.040.0650.0049.820.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0651.7250.330.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.040.0646.1546.49-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.040.0625.0025.84-0.02-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.040.0623.0823.14-0.02-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0657.6956.380.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.080.0640.0041.64-0.02-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0637.5039.90-0.02-0.01
Notre DameACC0.080.0675.0074.370.040.03
TexasB120.080.0635.7134.84-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0669.2368.790.030.02
Wright St.Horz0.080.0662.9662.450.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0641.6742.37-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0648.1547.57-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.040.0657.1456.680.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0657.6957.750.010.01
George WashingtonA100.040.0651.8551.210.000.00
HawaiiBW0.040.0648.0047.45-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.080.0660.7159.890.020.01
New MexicoMWC0.040.0657.1456.440.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.040.0682.1480.660.020.04
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0666.6765.160.010.02
PittsburghACC0.040.0653.5750.750.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0688.8989.350.060.05
SienaMAAC0.040.0648.2848.54-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.080.0660.0060.170.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.080.0670.3769.250.030.02
WisconsinB100.080.0681.4880.840.050.04
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0632.1430.40-0.03-0.02
ArizonaP120.080.0689.2987.680.060.04
ButlerBE0.070.0678.5777.620.040.03
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0650.0049.270.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.070.0677.7875.390.040.03
DePaulBE0.040.0632.1430.89-0.01-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0650.0049.130.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.040.06100.0099.810.040.06
IndianaB100.040.0653.5752.940.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.080.0625.0026.38-0.04-0.03
La SalleA100.080.0653.8554.810.010.01
LibertyBSth0.040.0657.6957.630.010.01
LSUSEC0.080.0633.3331.80-0.03-0.02
MarquetteBE0.040.0662.9661.410.010.01
Michigan St.B100.040.0659.2657.930.010.01
NorthwesternB100.040.0671.4368.340.020.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0662.9661.760.020.01
SMUAmer0.070.0685.7185.540.050.04
South FloridaAmer0.070.0626.9225.66-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0648.2848.17-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.040.0642.8642.05-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.070.0648.2850.61-0.000.00
TulsaAmer0.040.0646.1547.81-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.040.0633.3333.33-0.01-0.02
XavierBE0.070.0664.2964.300.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.040.0377.7877.990.020.02
OregonP120.040.0385.7185.930.030.02
William & MaryCAA0.040.0352.0053.050.000.00
North FloridaASun0.040.0330.7732.11-0.02-0.01
PortlandWCC0.040.0329.6329.44-0.02-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.040.0340.9144.15-0.01-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.040.0340.7442.17-0.01-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0325.0027.77-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0330.7730.10-0.02-0.01
BryantNEC0.040.0335.7137.15-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0365.3866.650.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0346.1547.50-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.040.0355.5655.660.000.00
DelawareCAA0.040.0337.0435.10-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.040.0316.0018.13-0.03-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0330.4331.13-0.02-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0373.0873.880.020.01
IUPUISum0.040.0338.4639.08-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0350.0049.370.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0385.1985.420.030.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0365.3864.780.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.040.0362.9662.600.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.040.0327.2728.66-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.040.0361.5462.870.010.01
PacificWCC0.040.0332.1432.21-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.040.0353.3353.310.000.00
Saint LouisA100.040.0332.1431.02-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.040.0344.0042.77-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0370.3770.540.020.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0352.1753.700.000.00
VCUA100.040.0382.1479.370.030.02
Western IllinoisSum0.040.0326.0925.92-0.02-0.01
ClemsonACC0.040.0351.8553.680.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0325.0026.71-0.02-0.01
DukeACC0.040.0378.5776.170.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.040.0378.5776.210.020.02
Miami FLACC0.040.0370.3767.240.020.01
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0331.0331.60-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.040.0329.6330.60-0.02-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0351.7249.530.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.040.0350.0048.510.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0337.9339.64-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.040.0362.9662.810.010.01
SyracuseACC0.040.0358.6257.910.010.00
Wake ForestACC0.040.0357.1455.800.010.00
WoffordSC0.040.0344.4443.90-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.040.0359.0960.220.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.040.0334.6233.56-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.040.0337.5037.60-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0371.4372.700.020.01
MaineAE0.040.0317.2417.48-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.040.0340.7440.78-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.040.0357.6958.050.010.00
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0312.0011.56-0.03-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.040.0366.6766.780.010.01
StetsonASun0.040.0329.6328.76-0.02-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.040.0381.4881.510.020.02
VermontAE0.040.0382.7682.940.020.02
WagnerNEC0.040.0352.0053.230.000.00