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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


George Washington

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:84.0
Current RPI:84
Expected SOS:142
Current SOS:142
Current Record:21-12
Expected Record:21-12
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-1
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:84
Expected OOC SOS:289



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1284.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for George Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Grambling St. (351.0)SWACH92-40W100%0.0
11-16Rutgers (178.0)B10A53-70W100%0.0
11-21Virginia (7.0)ACCA59-42L0%0.0
11-26Longwood (316.0)BSthH91-66W100%0.0
11-29Seton Hall (97.0)BEA58-54L0%0.0
12-4UMBC (346.0)AEH83-60W100%0.0
12-7Charlotte (211.0)CUSAN78-70W100%0.0
12-11DePaul (197.0)BEH81-68W100%0.0
12-14Penn St. (108.0)B10A64-51L0%0.0
12-22Ohio (231.0)MACN77-49W100%0.0
12-23Colorado (116.0)P12N50-53W100%0.0
12-25Wichita St. (17.0)MVCN54-60W100%0.0
12-30VMI (286.0)SCH80-60W100%0.0
1-3Saint Joseph's (187.0)A10A60-64W100%0.0
1-6Saint Louis (272.0)A10H75-72W100%0.0
1-10La Salle (101.0)A10A63-50L0%0.0
1-15Richmond (56.0)A10H73-70W100%0.0
1-17George Mason (221.0)A10H63-53W100%0.0
1-22Fordham (238.0)A10A59-79W100%0.0
1-24Duquesne (222.0)A10H74-59W100%0.0
1-27VCU (15.0)A10A72-48L0%0.0
1-31Rhode Island (66.0)A10A59-55L0%0.0
2-6Dayton (32.0)A10H65-64W100%0.0
2-11Duquesne (222.0)A10A78-62L0%0.0
2-14VCU (15.0)A10H66-79L0%0.0
2-18Davidson (35.0)A10H63-65L0%0.0
2-21Richmond (56.0)A10A56-48L0%0.0
2-25St. Bonaventure (121.0)A10H69-46W100%0.0
2-28Davidson (35.0)A10A77-66L0%0.0
3-4George Mason (221.0)A10A51-67W100%0.0
3-7Massachusetts (80.0)A10H87-65W100%0.0
3-12Duquesne (222.0)A10N73-55W100%0.0
3-13Rhode Island (66.0)A10N71-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

George Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


George Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  George Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
George WashingtonA1026.2026.2065.9365.938.348.34
DuquesneA105.125.1237.0437.04-1.33-1.33
VCUA103.823.8272.7372.731.731.73
DavidsonA103.803.8075.0075.001.901.90
RichmondA103.683.6860.0060.000.740.74
George MasonA103.663.6628.5728.57-1.57-1.57
Rhode IslandA103.613.6167.8667.861.291.29
Saint LouisA102.322.3233.3333.33-0.77-0.77
DaytonA102.272.2778.1278.121.281.28
St. BonaventureA102.242.2460.0060.000.450.45
FordhamA102.242.2431.0331.03-0.85-0.85
La SalleA102.222.2250.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA102.152.1554.8454.840.210.21
Saint Joseph'sA102.152.1543.3343.33-0.29-0.29
Penn St.B101.691.6951.5251.520.050.05
VirginiaACC1.661.6690.3290.321.341.34
DePaulBE1.611.6138.7138.71-0.36-0.36
Seton HallBE1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB101.611.6132.2632.26-0.57-0.57
CharlotteCUSA1.591.5945.1645.16-0.15-0.15
Wichita St.MVC1.561.5690.0090.001.251.25
OhioMAC1.561.5634.4834.48-0.49-0.49
LongwoodBSth1.541.5429.0329.03-0.65-0.65
ColoradoP121.541.5448.3948.39-0.05-0.05
UMBCAE1.541.5413.7913.79-1.11-1.11
Grambling St.SWAC1.521.520.000.00-1.52-1.52
VMISC1.521.5233.3333.33-0.51-0.51
UMass LowellAE0.200.2039.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.190.1990.9190.910.160.16
Old DominionCUSA0.190.1977.4277.420.100.10
VillanovaBE0.190.1994.1294.120.160.16
HowardMEAC0.170.1744.8344.83-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
MarylandB100.170.1781.8281.820.110.11
Illinois St.MVC0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
NebraskaB100.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1227.2727.27-0.06-0.06
VermontAE0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
PittsburghACC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
St. John'sBE0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
CreightonBE0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
IowaB100.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
MinnesotaB100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
MercerSC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
NJITind0.100.1056.0056.000.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P120.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
AkronMAC0.100.1058.8258.820.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.100.1068.5768.570.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
XavierBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
RadfordBSth0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Notre DameACC0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
WashingtonP120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
DetroitHorz0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.070.0710.0010.00-0.06-0.06
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
New HampshireAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
SienaMAAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
UtahP120.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0747.0647.06-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0759.2659.260.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
High PointBSth0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
USCP120.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
WisconsinB100.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0662.9662.960.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0618.7518.75-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.020.02
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0468.7568.750.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
DelawareCAA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
NevadaMWC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
TulsaAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
ElonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
LSUSEC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
BucknellPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01