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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


George Washington

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:200.4
Current RPI:184
Expected SOS:110
Current SOS:104
Current Record:9-11
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:2-5
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:157
Expected OOC SOS:75



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-12109.00.01%
18-13117.90.36%
17-14138.21.78%
16-15156.66.85%
15-16175.515.60%
14-17192.923.84%
13-18209.224.66%
12-19223.917.50%
11-20238.57.63%
10-21250.61.60%
9-22266.20.16%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for George Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Howard (331.8)MEACH84-75W100%0.0
11-14Florida St. (39.9)ACCA87-67L0%0.0
11-18Hampton (287.4)MEACH65-57W100%0.0
11-20Rider (105.4)MAACH65-67L0%0.0
11-23Xavier (6.3)BEN83-64L0%0.0
11-24Kansas St. (67.7)B12N67-59L0%0.0
11-29Morgan St. (312.3)MEACH73-66W100%0.0
12-3Temple (61.5)AmerN71-67W100%0.0
12-6Princeton (140.5)IvyH71-60W100%0.0
12-9Penn St. (114.6)B10A74-54L0%0.0
12-16Miami FL (25.8)ACCH50-59L0%0.0
12-20New Hampshire (260.1)AEH68-64W100%0.0
12-23Harvard (178.0)IvyH58-48W100%0.0
12-30Saint Joseph's (150.4)A10H70-64W100%0.0
1-3Duquesne (212.1)A10A69-52L0%0.0
1-6Rhode Island (14.4)A10H60-81L0%0.0
1-10Davidson (81.5)A10A72-45L0%0.0
1-13Richmond (201.6)A10A78-68L0%0.0
1-17George Mason (224.7)A10H80-68W100%0.0
1-20VCU (127.7)A10A87-63L0%0.0
1-28St. Bonaventure (49.7)A10A0-011%-13.5
1-31Duquesne (212.1)A10H0-058%2.3
2-3Davidson (81.5)A10H0-027%-6.9
2-7La Salle (182.0)A10H0-049%-0.2
2-10George Mason (224.7)A10A0-045%-1.4
2-14Massachusetts (199.1)A10A0-035%-4.4
2-17VCU (127.7)A10H0-038%-3.3
2-21Richmond (201.6)A10H0-059%2.4
2-24Saint Louis (176.5)A10A0-030%-5.8
2-28Fordham (280.1)A10H0-075%7.5
3-3Dayton (111.9)A10A0-021%-9.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

George Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


George Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  George Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
George WashingtonA1026.3626.1037.1837.45-6.76-6.55
George MasonA102.913.8747.3742.25-0.15-0.60
RichmondA102.643.8427.7831.76-1.17-1.40
VCUA102.703.8157.8958.240.430.63
DavidsonA102.633.7956.2559.590.330.73
DuquesneA102.633.7668.4257.210.970.54
FordhamA100.482.3331.5829.20-0.18-0.97
Saint Joseph'sA102.842.3152.9453.420.170.16
MassachusettsA100.282.2650.0046.190.00-0.17
St. BonaventureA100.212.2566.6768.040.070.81
La SalleA100.402.2540.0042.42-0.08-0.34
Saint LouisA100.332.2547.3746.12-0.02-0.17
DaytonA100.332.2547.3749.97-0.02-0.00
Rhode IslandA102.562.2382.3580.771.661.37
HarvardIvy2.571.7540.0048.42-0.51-0.06
RiderMAAC2.791.7263.1664.120.730.49
PrincetonIvy2.641.7256.2562.450.330.43
Morgan St.MEAC2.561.7231.2541.15-0.96-0.30
HamptonMEAC2.681.7221.4343.33-1.53-0.23
Miami FLACC2.641.7276.4769.471.400.67
Florida St.ACC2.571.6972.2268.591.140.63
Penn St.B102.631.6960.0054.280.530.14
XavierBE2.651.6785.0079.411.850.98
TempleAmer2.571.6755.5653.520.290.12
HowardMEAC2.501.6411.1128.27-1.94-0.71
Kansas St.B122.501.6172.2261.471.110.37
New HampshireAE2.501.6135.2941.57-0.74-0.27
PennIvy0.210.2564.7162.720.060.06
VirginiaACC0.290.2294.7486.140.260.16
Florida A&MMEAC0.210.2010.0019.63-0.17-0.12
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.220.1915.7920.91-0.15-0.11
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1965.0054.670.040.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.179.5217.90-0.11-0.11
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.170.009.09-0.15-0.14
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.1755.5656.740.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.200.1743.7554.11-0.030.01
CornellIvy0.140.1733.3333.23-0.05-0.06
VermontAE0.210.1775.0077.850.110.09
BinghamtonAE0.260.1742.1139.94-0.04-0.03
VMISC0.200.1625.0024.15-0.10-0.08
ProvidenceBE0.190.1670.0060.470.080.03
Old DominionCUSA0.190.1678.9576.750.110.09
BucknellPat0.200.1661.9068.020.050.06
PittsburghACC0.190.1640.0030.87-0.04-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.220.1527.7834.50-0.10-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.230.1421.4326.35-0.13-0.07
BrownIvy0.070.1450.0045.140.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.1441.1847.560.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1420.0032.25-0.08-0.05
ManhattanMAAC0.210.1450.0050.860.000.00
HawaiiBW0.280.1468.7563.990.110.04
Appalachian St.SB0.220.1433.3337.23-0.07-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.220.1426.3230.49-0.10-0.05
MaineAE0.070.1410.5314.83-0.05-0.10
GeorgetownBE0.130.1368.4254.070.050.01
CincinnatiAmer0.190.1389.4785.550.150.09
TexasB120.130.1363.1657.630.030.02
LouisvilleACC0.130.1378.9569.790.070.05
Seton HallBE0.190.1375.0067.890.100.05
VillanovaBE0.190.1394.7490.310.170.11
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1218.7536.820.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.1227.7831.71-0.03-0.04
AkronMAC0.150.1147.0644.91-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.140.1180.0075.060.080.05
West VirginiaB120.140.1184.2178.170.100.06
NiagaraMAAC0.130.1157.1453.050.020.01
ButlerBE0.130.1166.6763.070.040.03
MinnesotaB100.210.1163.6457.630.060.02
ClemsonACC0.140.1184.2173.240.090.05
TulaneAmer0.130.1163.1657.890.030.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.1168.4257.740.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.1142.1140.46-0.01-0.02
AuburnSEC0.130.1189.4777.000.100.06
James MadisonCAA0.130.1125.0028.24-0.06-0.05
MarquetteBE0.120.1068.4260.550.040.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0950.0052.460.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.140.0835.0026.12-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.220.0850.0053.260.000.01
HartfordAE0.060.0850.0045.930.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.0833.3333.87-0.02-0.03
NevadaMWC0.140.0885.7182.090.100.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.140.0822.2227.33-0.08-0.04
AmericanPat0.200.0826.3228.11-0.10-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.130.0838.8944.08-0.03-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0827.7841.03-0.03-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.140.0825.0031.45-0.07-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.0883.3384.240.100.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.0817.6519.30-0.09-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.150.0864.7159.990.040.02
IonaMAAC0.130.0860.0064.110.030.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.0870.0068.220.050.03
LafayettePat0.140.0822.2227.47-0.08-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0861.9063.140.010.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0878.9572.990.040.04
SyracuseACC0.070.0868.4261.230.020.02
DrexelCAA0.130.0830.0030.99-0.05-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.0865.0056.340.040.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0835.0031.83-0.02-0.03
RutgersB100.070.0855.0046.690.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0842.1146.09-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.130.0855.0053.320.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0866.6755.940.020.01
MarylandB100.060.0870.0065.250.020.02
North FloridaASun0.130.0831.5835.15-0.05-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.130.0868.4254.090.050.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.0857.1460.410.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0855.0052.470.010.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0833.3335.21-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.130.0847.3742.16-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.070.0873.6865.600.030.02
WisconsinB100.180.0850.0046.300.00-0.01
BaylorB120.060.0861.1156.090.010.01
MichiganB100.060.0876.1970.740.030.03
NorthwesternB100.120.0855.0050.330.010.00
AlbanyAE0.070.0671.4370.240.030.02
Stony BrookAE0.070.0636.8445.21-0.02-0.01
UMBCAE0.070.0655.5655.540.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.0638.8940.78-0.03-0.01
NavyPat0.140.0660.0055.160.030.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.0611.1115.29-0.12-0.04
TowsonCAA0.070.0663.1665.970.020.02
FloridaSEC0.140.0673.6871.560.060.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.140.0672.2274.710.060.03
NortheasternCAA0.080.0663.1663.220.020.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0690.4888.960.060.04
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0623.5325.64-0.04-0.03
BYUWCC0.070.0580.9576.240.050.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.0523.5332.57-0.07-0.02
IndianaB100.130.0557.8950.710.020.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0552.6347.390.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.070.0547.3743.02-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.140.0589.4785.210.110.04
Georgia TechACC0.070.0552.6343.110.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0557.8959.490.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0583.3381.370.040.03
MaristMAAC0.060.0521.0522.02-0.04-0.03
Notre DameACC0.000.0563.1661.020.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0528.5729.940.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.070.0561.1164.130.010.02
UCFAmer0.070.0568.4260.860.020.01
WagnerNEC0.060.0564.7164.570.020.02
Wichita St.Amer0.000.0578.9577.380.000.03
CampbellBSth0.060.0547.0647.41-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0577.7879.150.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.000.0566.6765.520.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0561.1151.910.010.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0542.1143.51-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.130.0530.0039.93-0.05-0.01
Washington St.P120.140.0547.3741.44-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.130.0578.9576.130.070.03
CaliforniaP120.060.0536.8431.12-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.060.0575.0070.700.030.02
DePaulBE0.060.0542.1134.31-0.01-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0566.6763.420.020.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0566.6765.370.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0536.8444.11-0.02-0.01
IowaB100.060.0547.6244.02-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0561.1147.220.01-0.00
KansasB120.070.0584.2179.750.050.03
LamarSlnd0.060.0550.0054.890.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0552.6355.290.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.050.0010.67-0.06-0.04
NebraskaB100.060.0566.6759.820.020.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0580.9576.520.000.03
OklahomaB120.070.0577.7867.910.040.02
Oral RobertsSum0.130.0530.0032.52-0.05-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0550.0048.730.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.060.0533.3336.93-0.02-0.01
Texas TechB120.070.0578.9571.810.040.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0550.0059.450.000.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0327.7838.14-0.04-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0370.0071.230.030.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0370.0068.300.030.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0342.1144.96-0.01-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0345.0045.03-0.01-0.00
BryantNEC0.070.039.5217.12-0.06-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.070.0323.5328.21-0.04-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0356.2556.830.010.00
FurmanSC0.070.0366.6768.540.020.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0373.6867.970.040.01
LehighPat0.070.0338.8944.75-0.02-0.00
USCP120.070.0371.4368.280.030.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0345.0045.49-0.01-0.00
WoffordSC0.080.0368.7563.690.030.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0368.4258.980.030.00
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0327.7831.11-0.03-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0366.6765.640.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0346.6746.97-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0357.8966.260.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0380.9583.260.040.02
LibertyBSth0.070.0350.0054.190.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0352.6358.590.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.070.0333.3334.10-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0361.1158.700.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0372.2274.930.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0345.0041.33-0.01-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0321.0525.970.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0342.1132.470.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0342.1146.00-0.01-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0338.8943.430.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0316.6724.91-0.04-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0340.0042.520.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.070.0322.2228.66-0.04-0.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0365.0058.540.020.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0347.0641.410.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0372.2258.920.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0370.5975.950.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0347.0648.410.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0357.8950.840.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0316.6724.45-0.05-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0357.8954.500.000.00
SMUAmer0.070.0370.0070.570.030.01
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0341.1838.47-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0357.8953.190.000.00
The CitadelSC0.070.0318.7518.36-0.04-0.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0366.6767.700.020.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0352.9452.230.000.00
ColoradoP120.060.0360.0053.720.010.00
IllinoisB100.000.0347.3744.270.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.060.0344.4444.92-0.01-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.060.0368.4263.650.020.01
MercerSC0.000.0344.4454.860.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0385.0083.200.000.02
MontanaBSky0.060.0370.5973.150.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0323.5328.69-0.03-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0344.4450.08-0.010.00
PurdueB100.000.0390.4888.370.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0350.0045.870.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0368.4263.960.020.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0321.0524.75-0.04-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.070.0311.1118.00-0.05-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0336.8435.57-0.02-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0338.8935.370.00-0.01