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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.


George Washington

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:188.0
Current RPI:188
Expected SOS:59
Current SOS:59
Current Record:10-21
Expected Record:10-21
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-3
Current OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC RPI:159
Expected OOC SOS:48



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-21188.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for George Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Maryland Eastern Shore (320.0)MEACH64-48W100%0.0
11-13California (37.0)P12A81-54L0%0.0
11-21Detroit (126.0)HorzN86-73W100%0.0
11-22Austin Peay (193.0)OVCN52-54W100%0.0
11-23Bowling Green (158.0)MACA56-77W100%0.0
12-1Kansas St. (45.0)B12A69-56L0%0.0
12-4Virginia Commonwealth (38.0)CAAN60-75L0%0.0
12-7Loyola MD (77.0)MAACH55-65L0%0.0
12-10Syracuse (1.0)BEA85-50L0%0.0
12-15Bradley (265.0)MVCH66-67L0%0.0
12-22James Madison (261.0)CAAH57-62L0%0.0
12-28UAB (112.0)CUSAH49-56L0%0.0
12-31Delaware St. (249.0)MEACH77-59W100%0.0
1-4St. Bonaventure (72.0)A10A66-56L0%0.0
1-7St. Louis (31.0)A10A78-56L0%0.0
1-11Rhode Island (257.0)A10H69-61W100%0.0
1-14Harvard (35.0)IvyA69-48L0%0.0
1-18Richmond (127.0)A10H83-65W100%0.0
1-21Charlotte (167.0)A10H60-52W100%0.0
1-25La Salle (90.0)A10A78-63L0%0.0
1-28Fordham (240.0)A10A63-58L0%0.0
2-1Xavier (41.0)A10H58-59L0%0.0
2-4Massachusetts (76.0)A10H75-86L0%0.0
2-8Temple (19.0)A10A79-72L0%0.0
2-11Richmond (127.0)A10A67-69W100%0.0
2-18Saint Joseph's (69.0)A10H66-73L0%0.0
2-22Charlotte (167.0)A10A72-62L0%0.0
2-25Duquesne (109.0)A10H56-51W100%0.0
2-29La Salle (90.0)A10H56-60L0%0.0
3-3Dayton (81.0)A10A75-59L0%0.0
3-6Dayton (81.0)A10A67-50L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

George Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


George Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  George Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
George WashingtonA1026.0026.0030.2230.22-10.29-10.29
La SalleA103.763.7661.2961.290.850.85
RichmondA103.763.7653.3353.330.250.25
DaytonA103.713.7160.0060.000.740.74
CharlotteA103.713.7142.8642.86-0.53-0.53
XavierA102.262.2662.5062.500.560.56
Saint Joseph'sA102.232.2359.3859.380.420.42
MassachusettsA102.202.2065.6265.620.690.69
St. BonaventureA102.202.2063.3363.330.590.59
St. LouisA102.202.2076.6776.671.171.17
DuquesneA102.182.1851.7251.720.080.08
TempleA102.172.1776.6776.671.161.16
FordhamA102.152.1532.1432.14-0.77-0.77
Rhode IslandA102.132.1323.3323.33-1.13-1.13
James MadisonCAA1.741.7435.4835.48-0.50-0.50
Bowling GreenMAC1.721.7251.7251.720.060.06
Virginia CommonwealthCAA1.711.7181.8281.821.091.09
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.701.7021.4321.43-0.97-0.97
DetroitHorz1.691.6962.5062.500.420.42
Austin PeayOVC1.691.6936.6736.67-0.45-0.45
Delaware St.MEAC1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy1.671.6785.7185.711.191.19
Kansas St.B121.641.6466.6766.670.550.55
SyracuseBE1.641.6493.7593.751.441.44
CaliforniaP121.641.6471.8871.880.720.72
Loyola MDMAAC1.641.6474.1974.190.790.79
UABCUSA1.641.6446.6746.67-0.11-0.11
BradleyMVC1.611.6119.3519.35-0.99-0.99
HamptonMEAC0.190.1936.3636.36-0.05-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.190.1938.4638.46-0.04-0.04
PennsylvaniaIvy0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
George MasonCAA0.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
NortheasternCAA0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.170.173.123.12-0.16-0.16
HowardMEAC0.170.1730.0030.00-0.07-0.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
MemphisCUSA0.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
BuffaloMAC0.160.1664.2964.290.040.04
SienaMAAC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
Boston UniversityAE0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
VillanovaBE0.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
NC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Old DominionCAA0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.150.1516.1316.13-0.10-0.10
DrexelCAA0.150.1581.8281.820.090.09
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Central FloridaCUSA0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
East CarolinaCUSA0.130.1340.7440.74-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
DavidsonSC0.130.1377.4277.420.070.07
Miami OHMAC0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Murray St.OVC0.130.1396.4396.430.120.12
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1367.7467.740.040.04
IonaMAAC0.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
AlabamaSEC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
RiderMAAC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.CAA0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
HofstraCAA0.120.1231.2531.25-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
TulaneCUSA0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1039.3939.39-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
AmericanPat0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1083.8783.870.070.07
CanisiusMAAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutBE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
UtahP120.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
CreightonMVC0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
PittsburghBE0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
UCLAP120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.080.0840.7440.74-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.080.0865.3865.380.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
RiceCUSA0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameBE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Miami FLACC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0839.3939.39-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
Middle TennesseeSB0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
OklahomaB120.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Florida InternationalSB0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
MissouriB120.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
IllinoisB100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersBE0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
ButlerHorz0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
ColoradoP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
MonmouthNEC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.056.676.67-0.05-0.05
LamarSlnd0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
OhioMAC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
WyomingMWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
BelmontASun0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Texas A&MB120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
WashingtonP120.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
West VirginiaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
OregonP120.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
South FloridaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.036.456.45-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana TechWAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.030.037.147.14-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Seattleind0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Texas St.Slnd0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
HoustonCUSA0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
NevadaWAC0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North DakotaGWC0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
DenverSB0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
DePaulBE0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
HawaiiWAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
San Jose St.WAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Washington St.P120.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01