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Through games of Jan 29, 2015.


George Washington

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:54.7
Current RPI:45
Expected SOS:111
Current SOS:147
Current Record:16-5
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:6-2
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:58
Expected OOC SOS:223



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-519.00.17%
25-625.11.50%
24-730.87.21%
23-838.217.51%
22-947.325.04%
21-1059.225.05%
20-1173.015.39%
19-1288.16.38%
18-13103.01.46%
17-14120.20.28%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for George Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Grambling St. (349.3)SWACH92-40W100%0.0
11-16Rutgers (146.9)B10A53-70W100%0.0
11-21Virginia (2.5)ACCA59-42L0%0.0
11-26Longwood (325.2)BSthH91-66W100%0.0
11-29Seton Hall (46.4)BEA58-54L0%0.0
12-4UMBC (338.1)AEH83-60W100%0.0
12-7Charlotte (152.8)CUSAN78-70W100%0.0
12-11DePaul (161.9)BEH81-68W100%0.0
12-14Penn St. (106.9)B10A64-51L0%0.0
12-22Ohio (210.5)MACN77-49W100%0.0
12-23Colorado (91.0)P12N50-53W100%0.0
12-25Wichita St. (13.5)MVCN54-60W100%0.0
12-30VMI (280.6)SCH80-60W100%0.0
1-3Saint Joseph's (198.8)A10A60-64W100%0.0
1-6Saint Louis (241.1)A10H75-72W100%0.0
1-10La Salle (106.3)A10A63-50L0%0.0
1-15Richmond (71.3)A10H73-70W100%0.0
1-17George Mason (177.2)A10H63-53W100%0.0
1-22Fordham (274.0)A10A59-79W100%0.0
1-24Duquesne (262.0)A10H74-59W100%0.0
1-27VCU (8.6)A10A72-48L0%0.0
1-31Rhode Island (77.4)A10A0-039%-3.2
2-6Dayton (41.4)A10H0-058%2.1
2-11Duquesne (262.0)A10A0-082%9.9
2-14VCU (8.6)A10H0-043%-2.0
2-18Davidson (32.0)A10H0-047%-0.8
2-21Richmond (71.3)A10A0-040%-2.9
2-25St. Bonaventure (141.2)A10H0-079%8.9
2-28Davidson (32.0)A10A0-024%-7.7
3-4George Mason (177.2)A10A0-070%5.9
3-7Massachusetts (80.5)A10H0-076%7.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

George Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


George Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  George Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
George WashingtonA1026.2926.1281.9372.3716.7911.69
DavidsonA100.433.9376.4778.080.232.21
VCUA102.713.8984.2182.321.852.51
RichmondA102.513.8657.8958.770.400.68
George MasonA102.563.8535.2934.04-0.75-1.23
DuquesneA102.683.8329.4127.68-1.10-1.71
Saint LouisA102.632.3344.4437.68-0.29-0.57
St. BonaventureA100.322.3061.1157.330.070.34
DaytonA100.322.2580.0078.540.191.28
La SalleA102.642.2452.6351.660.140.07
FordhamA102.622.2425.0025.34-1.31-1.10
MassachusettsA100.192.2255.0056.220.020.28
Saint Joseph'sA102.642.2244.4440.63-0.29-0.42
Rhode IslandA100.392.2172.2269.080.170.84
Penn St.B102.681.7865.0052.660.810.09
VirginiaACC2.551.77100.0093.822.551.56
DePaulBE2.571.7252.3844.000.12-0.21
Seton HallBE2.551.7268.4262.000.940.41
RutgersB102.621.7247.6237.74-0.12-0.42
CharlotteCUSA2.441.7047.3754.42-0.130.15
OhioMAC2.441.6741.1836.73-0.43-0.44
Wichita St.MVC2.501.6794.7491.202.241.37
LongwoodBSth2.441.6421.0525.45-1.41-0.81
UMBCAE2.441.6415.0017.63-1.71-1.06
ColoradoP122.441.6457.8954.060.380.13
Grambling St.SWAC2.381.610.006.87-2.38-1.39
VMISC2.381.6131.5836.25-0.88-0.44
Northern IowaMVC0.190.2290.4885.040.150.15
Old DominionCUSA0.240.2180.0079.850.150.13
VillanovaBE0.300.2190.0084.570.240.15
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.250.1954.5556.920.020.03
MarylandB100.250.1981.8276.500.160.10
UMass LowellAE0.190.1740.0041.40-0.04-0.03
HowardMEAC0.250.1741.1844.45-0.04-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.1676.1966.040.030.05
Illinois St.MVC0.230.1660.0060.180.050.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1427.2731.54-0.06-0.05
ManhattanMAAC0.190.1447.3747.13-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.180.1363.1658.080.050.02
GeorgetownBE0.110.1370.0065.410.050.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1257.8956.390.020.01
PittsburghACC0.070.1160.0052.040.010.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.180.1155.5656.520.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.1156.2557.210.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.060.1131.5830.52-0.02-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.180.1145.0037.40-0.02-0.03
AkronMAC0.110.1168.4263.670.040.03
VermontAE0.180.1150.0055.830.000.01
PurdueB100.140.1161.9058.660.030.02
NebraskaB100.120.1160.0049.440.02-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.120.1150.0046.850.00-0.01
IowaB100.120.1165.0063.440.030.03
RadfordBSth0.120.1163.1663.970.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.180.1159.0958.340.030.02
MinnesotaB100.170.1157.1454.280.020.01
ButlerBE0.120.1171.4370.710.050.04
CreightonBE0.110.1145.4540.61-0.01-0.02
DrexelCAA0.240.1131.5832.42-0.09-0.04
MarquetteBE0.110.1150.0044.460.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1159.0956.210.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.060.1142.8638.97-0.01-0.02
XavierBE0.170.1166.6765.800.060.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.0916.6721.98-0.10-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0928.5736.68-0.03-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0925.0037.81-0.04-0.02
The CitadelSC0.120.0929.4131.71-0.05-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0925.0031.44-0.04-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.0915.7921.14-0.08-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.210.0935.2935.88-0.06-0.02
MercerSC0.180.0950.0052.660.000.00
West VirginiaB120.130.0985.0075.800.090.04
CampbellBSth0.000.0926.3232.95-0.00-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0915.7923.02-0.00-0.05
NJITind0.120.0952.3854.400.010.01
WashingtonP120.140.0870.0063.130.060.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0880.9576.580.000.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.130.0827.7828.20-0.06-0.04
Notre DameACC0.140.0890.9185.820.120.06
Oregon St.P120.130.0868.4260.520.050.02
St. Francis PANEC0.120.0852.6356.840.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.060.089.5215.05-0.05-0.06
BuffaloMAC0.070.0868.4266.110.020.03
EvansvilleMVC0.130.0875.0069.800.060.03
SienaMAAC0.070.0842.1138.17-0.01-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0876.4771.500.040.04
BradleyMVC0.120.0828.5727.77-0.05-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.120.0850.0052.150.000.00
MaineAE0.120.089.5212.24-0.09-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.0838.1036.85-0.03-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0845.0043.95-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.120.0847.0648.36-0.01-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.120.0850.0051.030.000.00
DrakeMVC0.170.0820.0021.28-0.10-0.05
IonaMAAC0.070.0871.4375.000.030.04
New HampshireAE0.110.0852.6353.610.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.120.0841.1847.60-0.02-0.00
UtahP120.120.0878.9580.160.070.05
BelmontOVC0.130.0865.0063.610.040.02
High PointBSth0.120.0873.6870.420.060.03
ToledoMAC0.130.0860.0058.600.030.01
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0847.3742.57-0.00-0.01
USCP120.180.0845.0038.97-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.0850.0053.360.000.01
Miami FLACC0.180.0870.0066.140.070.03
OregonP120.060.0865.0058.650.020.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.170.0845.4547.87-0.02-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.180.0852.6353.030.010.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.0866.6766.030.040.03
IndianaB100.060.0871.4366.610.020.03
MarshallCUSA0.120.0821.0525.57-0.07-0.04
MichiganB100.110.0860.0052.300.020.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0863.6464.410.020.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0877.2777.580.000.04
WisconsinB100.110.0890.0087.270.090.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0664.2967.370.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0610.0015.23-0.00-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0621.0533.18-0.05-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.080.0631.5844.68-0.03-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0645.0057.10-0.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0660.0060.760.010.01
FurmanSC0.060.0627.7831.26-0.03-0.02
SamfordSC0.060.0636.3636.12-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0640.0044.17-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0675.0074.940.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.140.0638.8937.19-0.03-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0635.2932.57-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0652.9455.910.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0652.3856.160.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0616.6722.55-0.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.0642.1139.30-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.120.0610.0013.97-0.10-0.04
DetroitHorz0.060.0642.8642.94-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.0628.5732.25-0.06-0.02
AlbanyAE0.060.0665.0067.660.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0673.3372.480.000.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0652.9452.600.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0664.7165.450.020.02
HartfordAE0.060.0650.0050.640.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.070.0673.6866.850.030.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0611.1116.23-0.05-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.120.0657.8958.420.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0631.5834.27-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.070.0665.0063.090.020.01
OklahomaB120.070.0665.0066.310.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0616.6717.58-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.070.0643.7542.86-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0661.9066.020.010.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0647.0651.73-0.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.070.0645.0046.67-0.01-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.120.0552.3853.990.010.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0523.5320.64-0.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.120.0565.0059.020.040.01
Loyola MDPat0.120.0540.0035.70-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.130.0542.1139.01-0.02-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0557.8962.520.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0563.1667.460.020.02
LehighPat0.110.0547.3750.45-0.010.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.0523.8125.03-0.06-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.0541.1838.33-0.02-0.01
TowsonCAA0.120.0542.8639.21-0.02-0.01
ArizonaP120.060.0590.4888.040.050.04
Arizona St.P120.060.0552.3853.710.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.120.0573.6866.440.060.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0585.0078.450.000.03
UCLAP120.060.0557.1455.730.010.01
Washington St.P120.060.0545.0036.05-0.01-0.02
ClemsonACC0.120.0560.0052.360.020.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.0531.5833.05-0.04-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0552.3845.720.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.060.0564.2965.390.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0515.0017.49-0.04-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0515.0023.65-0.04-0.03
PennIvy0.120.0533.3334.46-0.04-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0575.0071.450.030.02
TempleAmer0.120.0566.6763.860.040.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0575.0073.780.030.02
IllinoisB100.000.0561.9060.260.000.01
IUPUISum0.060.0538.1041.00-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.110.0566.6764.940.040.02
North TexasCUSA0.060.0535.2933.08-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0550.0043.420.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0560.0057.770.010.01
RiceCUSA0.060.0525.0027.92-0.03-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0526.3229.19-0.03-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.0557.1461.690.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0563.1654.170.020.00
William & MaryCAA0.060.0561.1164.970.010.02
TCUB120.080.0370.0059.730.030.01
ArmyPat0.060.0368.4263.900.020.01
NavyPat0.060.0335.0035.76-0.02-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0341.1837.58-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0344.4449.87-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0385.0077.520.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0345.0040.47-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0363.1658.770.020.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0313.6414.76-0.04-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0320.0022.26-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0323.8125.57-0.03-0.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0365.0061.640.020.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0350.0061.990.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0361.1160.450.010.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0378.9573.610.030.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0361.1156.260.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0333.3333.68-0.02-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0380.0072.630.000.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0347.3738.44-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0336.8441.51-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0357.1447.840.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0385.0081.560.040.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0357.8959.150.000.00
DenverSum0.060.0342.8646.32-0.01-0.00
DukeACC0.000.0385.0081.770.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.060.0395.2494.640.060.02
LipscombASun0.060.0338.8941.89-0.01-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0340.0038.92-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0365.0063.000.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0342.1134.95-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0345.0049.29-0.01-0.00
NevadaMWC0.060.0323.5325.36-0.03-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0357.1462.470.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0347.0652.46-0.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0338.1041.76-0.01-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0338.8938.68-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0366.6768.800.020.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0330.0031.92-0.02-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6758.800.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0310.0013.32-0.05-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0373.6865.270.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0352.9447.000.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.060.0378.9573.800.030.01
AmericanPat0.060.0352.3854.050.000.00
BucknellPat0.060.0352.3852.470.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6767.920.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.035.2610.53-0.05-0.02
ColgatePat0.060.0338.1043.90-0.01-0.00
ElonCAA0.060.0345.0042.60-0.01-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0341.1840.92-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0340.0040.93-0.01-0.00
HofstraCAA0.060.0363.6468.350.020.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0375.0073.840.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0380.0070.860.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0355.0054.120.010.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0330.0030.15-0.02-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0320.0027.23-0.03-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0357.8956.720.010.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0338.1042.95-0.01-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0350.0051.280.000.00
UABCUSA0.060.0345.0049.89-0.01-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0365.0068.720.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0347.0645.70-0.00-0.00