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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


George Washington

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:102.0
Current RPI:102
Expected SOS:106
Current SOS:106
Current Record:19-14
Expected Record:19-14
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:155
Expected OOC SOS:189



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-14102.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for George Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACH75-71W100%0.0
11-15Siena (122.0)MAACH77-75W100%0.0
11-17Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACH61-41W100%0.0
11-21Georgia (52.0)SECN73-81L0%0.0
11-22UAB (201.0)CUSAN81-74L0%0.0
11-26Penn St. (101.0)B10H68-74L0%0.0
11-29Harvard (143.0)IvyA74-77W100%0.0
12-3South Florida (316.0)AmerH68-67W100%0.0
12-4Florida St. (14.0)ACCN48-67L0%0.0
12-7Temple (137.0)AmerA63-66W100%0.0
12-10Howard (337.0)MEACH79-62W100%0.0
12-15UCF (68.0)AmerH74-59W100%0.0
12-22Miami FL (41.0)ACCA72-64L0%0.0
12-30Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10A68-63L0%0.0
1-5Davidson (93.0)A10H73-69W100%0.0
1-8Richmond (80.0)A10H70-77L0%0.0
1-11VCU (22.0)A10A85-55L0%0.0
1-15La Salle (133.0)A10A79-69L0%0.0
1-18Duquesne (267.0)A10H65-63W100%0.0
1-25George Mason (103.0)A10A68-87W100%0.0
1-28Saint Louis (238.0)A10H63-55W100%0.0
1-31Rhode Island (31.0)A10A82-70L0%0.0
2-4Richmond (80.0)A10A84-75L0%0.0
2-8VCU (22.0)A10H53-54L0%0.0
2-11St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10H76-70W100%0.0
2-15Davidson (93.0)A10A74-63L0%0.0
2-19Duquesne (267.0)A10A70-77W100%0.0
2-23Massachusetts (195.0)A10H83-67W100%0.0
2-26George Mason (103.0)A10H83-74W100%0.0
3-1Fordham (215.0)A10A66-67W100%0.0
3-4Dayton (30.0)A10H87-81W100%0.0
3-9Saint Louis (238.0)A10N53-46W100%0.0
3-10Richmond (80.0)A10N70-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

George Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


George Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  George Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
George WashingtonA1026.1626.1656.0356.033.153.15
RichmondA105.165.1658.6258.620.890.89
VCUA103.813.8175.0075.001.911.91
George MasonA103.733.7363.3363.331.001.00
DavidsonA103.693.6953.3353.330.250.25
Saint LouisA103.673.6738.7138.71-0.83-0.83
DuquesneA103.643.6433.3333.33-1.21-1.21
FordhamA102.262.2640.0040.00-0.45-0.45
MassachusettsA102.232.2346.8846.88-0.14-0.14
Rhode IslandA102.232.2371.8871.880.970.97
St. BonaventureA102.202.2064.5264.520.640.64
DaytonA102.192.1979.3179.311.291.29
La SalleA102.172.1748.2848.28-0.07-0.07
Saint Joseph'sA102.132.1333.3333.33-0.71-0.71
TempleAmer1.711.7151.6151.610.060.06
UCFAmer1.661.6667.7467.740.590.59
HowardMEAC1.641.6425.8125.81-0.79-0.79
Penn St.B101.611.6143.7543.75-0.20-0.20
South FloridaAmer1.611.6124.1424.14-0.83-0.83
HarvardIvy1.591.5964.0064.000.440.44
Florida St.ACC1.591.5975.0075.000.790.79
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.591.5938.7138.71-0.36-0.36
SienaMAAC1.561.5651.5251.520.050.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.561.5620.6920.69-0.92-0.92
Miami FLACC1.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
UABCUSA1.541.5448.3948.39-0.05-0.05
GeorgiaSEC1.521.5254.8454.840.150.15
PennIvy0.230.2346.4346.43-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.200.2067.7467.740.070.07
MemphisAmer0.190.1959.3859.380.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.190.1985.2985.290.130.13
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.190.193.333.33-0.17-0.17
Old DominionCUSA0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.170.1728.1228.12-0.07-0.07
ConnecticutAmer0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
ClemsonACC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
DukeACC0.140.1477.1477.140.080.08
Georgia TechACC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1338.4638.46-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.130.1378.5778.570.070.07
TulaneAmer0.120.1219.3519.35-0.07-0.07
TulsaAmer0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
MercerSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
BucknellPat0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
AlabamaSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
KentuckySEC0.120.1285.2985.290.080.08
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1273.3373.330.060.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
MarylandB100.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
North CarolinaACC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Wake ForestACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
RiderMAAC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
KansasB120.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
PittsburghACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1231.2531.25-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
IllinoisB100.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
YaleIvy0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
VMISC0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.090.0980.0080.000.060.06
RutgersB100.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
St. John'sBE0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0970.0070.000.040.04
IonaMAAC0.090.0964.7164.710.030.03
BrownIvy0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.076.906.90-0.06-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
ColgatePat0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
SyracuseACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
SamfordSC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
LSUSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0512.9012.90-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
BaylorB120.040.0477.4277.420.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.040.0431.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.040.0455.1755.170.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0422.5822.58-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
LafayettePat0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
ArmyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
DePaulBE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
NJITASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
StetsonASun0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
UTSACUSA0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
IowaB100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
PacificWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
WisconsinB100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00