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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


George Washington

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:29.0
Current RPI:29
Expected SOS:74
Current SOS:74
Current Record:24-8
Expected Record:24-8
Current Conf Record:12-6
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:12-2
Expected OOC Record:12-2
Expected OOC RPI:29
Expected OOC SOS:134



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-829.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for George Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Radford (240.0)BSthH76-54W100%0.0
11-12Maine (330.0)AEH108-81W100%0.0
11-16Manhattan (60.0)MAACA74-80W100%0.0
11-19Delaware St. (329.0)MEACH94-50W100%0.0
11-28Miami FL (110.0)ACCN71-63W100%0.0
11-29Marquette (92.0)BEN76-60L0%0.0
12-1Creighton (10.0)BEN53-60W100%0.0
12-4Rutgers (192.0)AmerH93-87W100%0.0
12-8Maryland (78.0)ACCN77-75W100%0.0
12-11Boston University (84.0)PatH70-60W100%0.0
12-21UMBC (327.0)AEH74-61W100%0.0
12-28Hofstra (277.0)CAAA58-69W100%0.0
12-31Kansas St. (51.0)B12A72-55L0%0.0
1-3Georgia (74.0)SECH73-55W100%0.0
1-9La Salle (98.0)A10A76-72L0%0.0
1-11Rhode Island (155.0)A10H69-56W100%0.0
1-14VCU (13.0)A10H76-66W100%0.0
1-18St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10A71-79W100%0.0
1-25George Mason (164.0)A10A69-75W100%0.0
1-29La Salle (98.0)A10H69-47W100%0.0
2-1Dayton (43.0)A10A75-65L0%0.0
2-5Duquesne (187.0)A10H71-57W100%0.0
2-8Fordham (226.0)A10H93-67W100%0.0
2-12VCU (13.0)A10A92-75L0%0.0
2-15Massachusetts (23.0)A10H61-67L0%0.0
2-18Richmond (75.0)A10A65-73W100%0.0
2-22Saint Louis (27.0)A10A66-59L0%0.0
3-2George Mason (164.0)A10H66-58W100%0.0
3-5Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10H76-71W100%0.0
3-8Fordham (226.0)A10A67-70W100%0.0
3-14Massachusetts (23.0)A10N85-77W100%0.0
3-15VCU (13.0)A10N74-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

George Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


George Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  George Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
George WashingtonA1026.1326.1376.4776.4713.8313.83
VCUA105.215.2177.4277.422.862.86
FordhamA103.733.7334.4834.48-1.16-1.16
George MasonA103.693.6937.9337.93-0.89-0.89
MassachusettsA103.673.6776.6776.671.961.96
La SalleA103.663.6648.2848.28-0.13-0.13
Saint Joseph'sA102.292.2975.0075.001.151.15
RichmondA102.272.2759.3859.380.430.43
Rhode IslandA102.252.2543.3343.33-0.30-0.30
St. BonaventureA102.232.2354.8454.840.220.22
DaytonA102.182.1868.7568.750.820.82
DuquesneA102.182.1842.8642.86-0.31-0.31
Saint LouisA102.172.1780.0080.001.301.30
ManhattanMAAC1.691.6980.6580.651.031.03
UMBCAE1.651.6528.5728.57-0.71-0.71
MaineAE1.641.6418.5218.52-1.03-1.03
Miami FLACC1.641.6453.1253.120.100.10
CreightonBE1.641.6481.2581.251.021.02
Boston UniversityPat1.611.6172.7372.730.730.73
HofstraCAA1.611.6131.2531.25-0.60-0.60
MarquetteBE1.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
MarylandACC1.611.6153.3353.330.110.11
Delaware St.MEAC1.591.5925.9325.93-0.76-0.76
GeorgiaSEC1.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
Kansas St.B121.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
RadfordBSth1.561.5662.0762.070.380.38
RutgersAmer1.561.5635.4835.48-0.45-0.45
ProvidenceBE0.300.3067.6567.650.100.10
Stony BrookAE0.260.2668.7568.750.100.10
Florida St.ACC0.240.2459.3859.380.050.05
SienaMAAC0.220.2246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.220.2229.0329.03-0.09-0.09
UMass LowellAE0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Northern IowaMVC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
New HampshireAE0.190.1917.2417.24-0.12-0.12
HartfordAE0.180.1851.5251.520.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.170.1764.5264.520.050.05
IonaMAAC0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
VillanovaBE0.170.1787.5087.500.130.13
Old DominionCUSA0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.170.1722.5822.58-0.09-0.09
AlbanyAE0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.160.1634.3834.38-0.05-0.05
BinghamtonAE0.160.1623.3323.33-0.09-0.09
St. Francis PANEC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
TempleAmer0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
DelawareCAA0.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
St. John'sBE0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
LSUSEC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
AmericanPat0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
XavierBE0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
VirginiaACC0.140.1482.3582.350.090.09
Long Beach St.BW0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.130.1336.0036.00-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1276.4776.470.070.07
Georgia TechACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Iowa St.B120.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
South FloridaAmer0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
ArmyPat0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Seton HallBE0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
WoffordSC0.120.1258.6258.620.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
BelmontOVC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.110.1119.3519.35-0.07-0.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
PittsburghACC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1016.1316.13-0.07-0.07
NavyPat0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Arizona St.P120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
MaristMAAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
CanisiusMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
LouisvilleAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
MississippiSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
ColgatePat0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Penn St.B100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Oregon St.P120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0770.3770.370.030.03
WagnerNEC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
TowsonCAA0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
HarvardIvy0.070.0786.2186.210.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0721.2121.21-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
BaylorB120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
UCFAmer0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
LafayettePat0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.040.04
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.050.053.703.70-0.05-0.05
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
YaleIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0224.0024.00-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
DavidsonSC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
SamfordSC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
TroySB0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
USCP120.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01