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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


George Washington

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:68.0
Current RPI:68
Expected SOS:101
Current SOS:101
Current Record:23-10
Expected Record:23-10
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-1
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:53
Expected OOC SOS:210



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-1068.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for George Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Lafayette (329.0)PatH85-76W100%0.0
11-16Virginia (3.0)ACCH73-68W100%0.0
11-19South Florida (230.0)AmerA67-73W100%0.0
11-22Army (214.0)PatH92-81W100%0.0
11-24Gardner Webb (210.0)BSthH94-65W100%0.0
11-27Tennessee (143.0)SECN73-70W100%0.0
11-28Cincinnati (48.0)AmerN56-61L0%0.0
12-2Seton Hall (19.0)BEH72-64W100%0.0
12-8Penn St. (125.0)B10H76-66W100%0.0
12-12Rutgers (294.0)B10H83-49W100%0.0
12-19Saint Peter's (208.0)MAACH87-74W100%0.0
12-22DePaul (198.0)BEA82-61L0%0.0
12-29UCF (219.0)AmerA50-67W100%0.0
1-3Fordham (176.0)A10H69-63W100%0.0
1-6Saint Louis (206.0)A10A65-62L0%0.0
1-9Duquesne (162.0)A10H91-64W100%0.0
1-12Massachusetts (171.0)A10A70-81W100%0.0
1-15Dayton (21.0)A10A77-70L0%0.0
1-22Rhode Island (119.0)A10H62-58W100%0.0
1-28Richmond (121.0)A10H90-98L0%0.0
1-31George Mason (201.0)A10A70-76W100%0.0
2-3Davidson (64.0)A10H79-69W100%0.0
2-6VCU (37.0)A10A69-72W100%0.0
2-10Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10H66-84L0%0.0
2-13St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10A64-57L0%0.0
2-17Duquesne (162.0)A10A74-81W100%0.0
2-21La Salle (232.0)A10H90-50W100%0.0
2-24Richmond (121.0)A10A61-73W100%0.0
2-27VCU (37.0)A10H65-69L0%0.0
3-1George Mason (201.0)A10H74-52W100%0.0
3-5Davidson (64.0)A10A87-80L0%0.0
3-10Saint Louis (206.0)A10N73-65W100%0.0
3-11Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10N86-80L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

George Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


George Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  George Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
George WashingtonA1026.1226.1268.7168.719.779.77
VCUA103.793.7971.8871.881.661.66
DavidsonA103.773.7762.0762.070.910.91
George MasonA103.723.7236.6736.67-0.99-0.99
Saint LouisA103.703.7033.3333.33-1.23-1.23
RichmondA103.683.6850.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA103.653.6578.1278.122.062.06
DuquesneA103.653.6551.7251.720.130.13
La SalleA102.232.2327.5927.59-1.00-1.00
DaytonA102.232.2377.4277.421.221.22
MassachusettsA102.212.2145.1645.16-0.21-0.21
St. BonaventureA102.202.2072.4172.410.990.99
FordhamA102.182.1857.1457.140.310.31
Rhode IslandA102.142.1454.8454.840.210.21
UCFAmer1.661.6641.3841.38-0.29-0.29
Seton HallBE1.641.6478.1278.120.920.92
South FloridaAmer1.641.6425.0025.00-0.82-0.82
CincinnatiAmer1.631.6367.7467.740.580.58
LafayettePat1.611.6120.6920.69-0.95-0.95
ArmyPat1.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
Penn St.B101.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
DePaulBE1.581.5826.6726.67-0.74-0.74
TennesseeSEC1.561.5645.4545.45-0.14-0.14
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.561.5648.2848.28-0.05-0.05
VirginiaACC1.561.5681.2581.250.980.98
Gardner WebbBSth1.561.5648.2848.28-0.05-0.05
RutgersB101.561.5620.0020.00-0.94-0.94
TempleAmer0.240.2465.6265.620.070.07
VillanovaBE0.210.2185.2985.290.150.15
ColgatePat0.200.2041.3841.38-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.190.1947.0647.06-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
HoustonAmer0.170.1770.9770.970.070.07
East CarolinaAmer0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
CreightonBE0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
XavierBE0.170.1784.3884.380.110.11
Georgia TechACC0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.160.1662.8662.860.040.04
Holy CrossPat0.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
St. John'sBE0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
TulaneAmer0.150.1535.2935.29-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
MemphisAmer0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
PennIvy0.140.1437.0437.04-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
ButlerBE0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
NavyPat0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
LehighPat0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
TulsaAmer0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
IowaB100.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
PittsburghACC0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
NiagaraMAAC0.120.1221.8821.88-0.07-0.07
GeorgetownBE0.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Ohio St.B100.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
RadfordBSth0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
MississippiSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
North FloridaASun0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
FloridaSEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.100.1039.3939.39-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Michigan St.B100.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
NorthwesternB100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.100.1077.7877.780.050.05
LibertyBSth0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
Wake ForestACC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Miami FLACC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
ClemsonACC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
DrexelCAA0.090.0920.0020.00-0.06-0.06
LouisvilleACC0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
WisconsinB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
CampbellBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0857.6957.690.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
SienaMAAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
MaristMAAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
IllinoisB100.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
MichiganB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
WagnerNEC0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
LSUSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
KentuckySEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
AuburnSEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
MaineAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
BrownIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
NJITASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0465.5265.520.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0429.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0470.9770.970.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.0422.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
BryantNEC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.023.453.45-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0211.1111.11-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01