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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


George Washington

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:56.0
Current RPI:50
Expected SOS:104
Current SOS:93
Current Record:18-6
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:7-4
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:56
Expected OOC SOS:225



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-629.12.63%
24-737.712.55%
23-848.428.86%
22-959.431.37%
21-1069.818.80%
20-1181.75.26%
19-1296.30.50%
18-13117.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for George Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Lafayette (323.1)PatH85-76W100%0.0
11-16Virginia (5.7)ACCH73-68W100%0.0
11-19South Florida (246.6)AmerA67-73W100%0.0
11-22Army (217.9)PatH92-81W100%0.0
11-24Gardner Webb (221.5)BSthH94-65W100%0.0
11-27Tennessee (112.5)SECN73-70W100%0.0
11-28Cincinnati (46.9)AmerN56-61L0%0.0
12-2Seton Hall (55.2)BEH72-64W100%0.0
12-8Penn St. (131.5)B10H76-66W100%0.0
12-12Rutgers (280.8)B10H83-49W100%0.0
12-19Saint Peter's (225.7)MAACH87-74W100%0.0
12-22DePaul (168.3)BEA82-61L0%0.0
12-29UCF (197.3)AmerA50-67W100%0.0
1-3Fordham (193.9)A10H69-63W100%0.0
1-6Saint Louis (209.6)A10A65-62L0%0.0
1-9Duquesne (113.8)A10H91-64W100%0.0
1-12Massachusetts (181.5)A10A70-81W100%0.0
1-15Dayton (13.7)A10A77-70L0%0.0
1-22Rhode Island (96.7)A10H62-58W100%0.0
1-28Richmond (104.3)A10H90-98L0%0.0
1-31George Mason (191.9)A10A70-76W100%0.0
2-3Davidson (71.1)A10H79-69W100%0.0
2-6VCU (45.6)A10A69-72W100%0.0
2-10Saint Joseph's (26.8)A10H66-84L0%0.0
2-13St. Bonaventure (45.3)A10A0-044%-1.8
2-17Duquesne (113.8)A10A0-059%2.4
2-21La Salle (259.3)A10H0-096%18.9
2-24Richmond (104.3)A10A0-043%-2.0
2-27VCU (45.6)A10H0-049%-0.2
3-1George Mason (191.9)A10H0-090%14.1
3-5Davidson (71.1)A10A0-051%0.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

George Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


George Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  George Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
George WashingtonA1026.0726.1173.0871.4512.0311.20
DavidsonA102.493.8965.0060.740.750.84
George MasonA102.543.8834.7835.62-0.77-1.12
VCUA102.493.8873.9174.201.191.88
RichmondA102.453.8554.5554.180.220.32
DuquesneA102.493.8263.6458.810.680.67
Saint LouisA102.492.2931.8230.06-0.91-0.91
MassachusettsA102.502.2445.4543.86-0.23-0.27
DaytonA102.412.2486.3681.551.751.41
La SalleA100.542.2319.0520.90-0.34-1.30
FordhamA102.442.2355.0052.570.240.11
St. BonaventureA100.502.2372.7370.910.230.93
Saint Joseph'sA102.452.2182.6180.661.601.36
Rhode IslandA102.402.2160.8759.150.520.40
UCFAmer2.301.7852.3846.240.11-0.13
Seton HallBE2.261.7573.9170.431.080.71
South FloridaAmer2.301.7520.8320.38-1.34-1.04
CincinnatiAmer2.261.7470.8370.630.940.72
LafayettePat2.221.7321.7422.45-1.25-0.95
ArmyPat2.261.7256.5256.230.290.21
Penn St.B102.171.7252.1748.330.09-0.06
DePaulBE2.171.6930.4331.75-0.85-0.62
TennesseeSEC2.171.6752.1749.730.09-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC2.171.6742.8644.92-0.31-0.17
Gardner WebbBSth2.171.6745.4546.95-0.20-0.10
RutgersB102.131.6722.7321.04-1.16-0.96
VirginiaACC2.131.6686.9681.161.571.04
TempleAmer0.220.2165.2262.370.070.05
ColgatePat0.220.1943.4844.90-0.03-0.02
AmericanPat0.170.1929.1731.19-0.07-0.07
VillanovaBE0.220.1987.5086.850.160.14
HoustonAmer0.170.1970.8367.980.070.07
NebraskaB100.220.1852.0050.760.010.00
LongwoodBSth0.130.1721.7424.60-0.08-0.08
Boston UniversityPat0.220.1656.0056.510.030.02
St. John'sBE0.140.1625.0023.45-0.07-0.09
CreightonBE0.260.1664.0062.070.070.04
XavierBE0.220.1687.5081.850.160.10
ProvidenceBE0.180.1672.0069.130.080.06
East CarolinaAmer0.090.1641.6739.49-0.02-0.03
MemphisAmer0.170.1658.3359.310.030.03
ButlerBE0.220.1670.8369.000.090.06
Georgia TechACC0.180.1654.1752.000.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.180.1658.3363.180.030.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.230.1452.1753.720.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.180.1480.0081.160.110.09
Loyola MDPat0.170.1433.3335.18-0.06-0.04
CaliforniaP120.140.1466.6764.780.050.04
PittsburghACC0.140.1472.7367.600.060.05
LehighPat0.130.1439.1342.83-0.03-0.02
RadfordBSth0.180.1452.1754.100.010.01
BucknellPat0.170.1452.1754.940.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.170.1441.6739.59-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.180.1479.1778.880.100.08
PennIvy0.130.1338.8937.69-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.090.1370.8370.130.040.05
TulsaAmer0.090.1366.6764.700.030.04
TulaneAmer0.170.1336.0034.84-0.05-0.04
SMUAmer0.170.1386.9682.920.130.09
MississippiSEC0.130.1362.5058.940.030.02
PresbyterianBSth0.140.1123.8125.49-0.07-0.06
RiderMAAC0.140.1140.0042.04-0.03-0.02
LibertyBSth0.090.1134.7836.53-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.090.1142.3144.53-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.090.1124.0024.61-0.05-0.06
NavyPat0.090.1164.0064.460.020.03
ManhattanMAAC0.090.1145.4543.23-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.090.1166.6767.110.030.04
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1158.3359.970.020.02
ClemsonACC0.130.1158.3358.400.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.130.1156.0052.870.020.01
MarquetteBE0.130.1164.0057.890.040.02
Wake ForestACC0.130.1141.6739.90-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.130.1160.0055.560.030.01
BuffaloMAC0.090.1156.5257.060.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.130.1166.6763.300.040.03
James MadisonCAA0.090.1172.0071.320.040.05
Michigan St.B100.090.1180.0081.560.050.07
North FloridaASun0.130.1162.5064.120.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.090.1156.0055.450.010.01
NorthwesternB100.090.1164.0062.090.020.03
FloridaSEC0.130.1166.6766.320.040.03
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1086.9680.420.090.06
WisconsinB100.130.1062.5057.000.030.01
MaristMAAC0.140.0921.7424.25-0.08-0.04
SienaMAAC0.090.0965.3864.970.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0852.1753.440.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0883.3378.380.030.05
IonaMAAC0.140.0860.8760.670.030.02
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0831.8234.54-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.140.0840.0043.49-0.03-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.130.0872.2274.700.060.04
Miami FLACC0.040.0882.6177.580.030.05
Boston CollegeACC0.140.0829.1726.69-0.06-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0831.8236.11-0.03-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0852.1754.130.000.01
StetsonASun0.090.0822.7327.39-0.05-0.04
DrexelCAA0.090.0813.0416.42-0.06-0.05
TowsonCAA0.040.0862.5057.730.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.090.0879.1775.990.050.04
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0826.3232.40-0.04-0.03
West VirginiaB120.090.0879.1778.100.050.05
IllinoisB100.050.0845.8344.07-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0825.0027.26-0.02-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0826.9228.60-0.04-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.130.0852.0048.920.01-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.090.0850.0052.940.000.00
DukeACC0.040.0875.0071.840.020.03
MarylandB100.130.0887.5083.660.100.05
MichiganB100.130.0870.8366.750.060.03
WagnerNEC0.090.0860.8762.520.020.02
KentuckySEC0.090.0875.0072.610.040.04
CampbellBSth0.090.0631.8232.08-0.03-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0627.2727.80-0.02-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0657.1457.670.010.01
High PointBSth0.090.0657.1459.870.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0637.5042.32-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0660.8758.900.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0654.5555.550.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0654.1754.090.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0634.7834.97-0.01-0.02
FurmanSC0.090.0656.0054.430.010.01
CornellIvy0.090.0642.1140.24-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0666.6766.770.000.02
MaineAE0.090.0632.0031.16-0.03-0.02
LSUSEC0.050.0662.5059.080.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0614.2924.90-0.06-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0662.5063.450.020.02
VMISC0.090.0619.0519.67-0.05-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0612.5013.27-0.07-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0650.0052.870.000.00
HartfordAE0.090.0624.0024.55-0.05-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0650.0051.280.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.040.0624.0026.44-0.02-0.03
BrownIvy0.090.0531.5831.01-0.03-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.059.5210.67-0.07-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.090.0534.7833.02-0.03-0.02
SyracuseACC0.040.0568.0064.090.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0524.0025.68-0.04-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0526.0927.89-0.04-0.02
NJITASun0.090.0556.0055.640.010.01
BradleyMVC0.090.0512.0011.95-0.07-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0525.0029.89-0.05-0.02
HowardMEAC0.090.0536.3638.97-0.02-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0547.8351.92-0.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.8762.470.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.0022.25-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0558.3360.900.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0552.1751.830.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0560.8755.310.010.01
UMBCAE0.050.0523.0825.87-0.02-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0545.4546.08-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0573.9176.700.040.03
William & MaryCAA0.090.0568.1867.110.030.02
AlabamaSEC0.090.0560.8755.980.020.01
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0559.0955.160.020.01
IndianaB100.090.0580.0075.690.050.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0519.0525.90-0.05-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0543.4850.64-0.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0550.0048.950.00-0.00
PurdueB100.090.0580.0077.910.050.03
TroySB0.090.0522.7324.38-0.05-0.03
AuburnSEC0.090.0539.1335.45-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0568.1867.730.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0545.8342.30-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.059.0917.14-0.04-0.03
TCUB120.090.0545.8339.36-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.040.0554.1753.810.000.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0366.6763.780.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.64-0.04-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0368.1871.350.020.01
Air ForceMWC0.040.0343.4837.80-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.040.0324.0024.92-0.02-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0345.4543.87-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0363.6461.470.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.040.0333.3336.31-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0369.5770.020.020.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0326.0928.41-0.02-0.01
USCP120.040.0378.2673.130.020.01
VermontAE0.000.0352.0054.860.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0336.8442.88-0.01-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.040.0386.3684.220.030.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0383.3383.710.030.02
Chicago St.WAC0.040.034.357.72-0.04-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.040.0331.5831.68-0.02-0.01
DrakeMVC0.040.0320.8323.28-0.03-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0335.0038.57-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0350.0049.480.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0358.3356.290.010.00
Notre DameACC0.040.0370.8367.930.020.01
OaklandHorz0.040.0365.3865.510.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0316.6719.49-0.03-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0313.0415.26-0.03-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0373.0872.610.020.01
StanfordP120.040.0347.6244.06-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0350.0050.500.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0337.5037.69-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0331.8232.68-0.02-0.01
AlbanyAE0.040.0373.0873.780.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0350.0045.770.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0321.7422.75-0.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.040.0370.8365.580.020.01
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0366.6765.240.010.01
DelawareCAA0.040.0325.0024.93-0.02-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.040.0360.8760.240.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0340.0043.39-0.01-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.040.0379.1777.510.030.01
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0356.0054.080.010.00
Iowa St.B120.040.0370.8367.970.020.01
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0347.8348.57-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.040.0365.2260.600.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0345.4549.05-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.040.0350.0051.110.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0329.1733.75-0.02-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0343.4843.77-0.01-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0333.3330.28-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0338.1037.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0368.1865.170.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0375.0075.340.020.01
UABCUSA0.040.0383.3379.820.030.02
ValparaisoHorz0.040.0382.6183.030.030.02