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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


George Washington

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:176.1
Current RPI:309
Expected SOS:97
Current SOS:340
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:202
Expected OOC SOS:168



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-956.00.01%
21-1063.00.02%
20-1175.70.27%
19-1290.80.86%
18-13103.62.21%
17-14119.05.28%
16-15135.210.49%
15-16151.914.99%
14-17169.518.77%
13-18187.118.13%
12-19206.313.85%
11-20223.68.75%
10-21240.04.33%
9-22253.31.42%
8-23269.70.54%
7-24282.40.05%
6-25295.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for George Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Maryland Eastern Shore (291.5)MEACH75-71W100%0.0
11-15Siena (144.9)MAACH77-75W100%0.0
11-17Arkansas Pine Bluff (334.8)SWACH61-41W100%0.0
11-21Georgia (65.1)SECN73-81L0%0.0
11-22UAB (128.6)CUSAN81-74L0%0.0
11-26Penn St. (136.8)B10H68-74L0%0.0
11-29Harvard (224.3)IvyA74-77W100%0.0
12-3South Florida (269.8)AmerH0-081%10.6
12-4Florida St. (50.8)ACCN0-016%-12.0
12-7Temple (58.9)AmerA0-019%-10.7
12-10Howard (291.2)MEACH0-086%13.1
12-15UCF (51.0)AmerH0-026%-7.5
12-22Miami FL (45.8)ACCA0-07%-17.6
12-30Saint Joseph's (121.4)A10A0-032%-5.5
1-5Davidson (48.3)A10H0-030%-6.2
1-8Richmond (173.8)A10H0-057%2.0
1-11VCU (31.1)A10A0-011%-14.7
1-15La Salle (107.7)A10A0-031%-6.1
1-18Duquesne (255.5)A10H0-075%8.1
1-25George Mason (200.3)A10A0-050%-0.1
1-28Saint Louis (278.6)A10H0-082%11.0
1-31Rhode Island (33.6)A10A0-013%-13.7
2-4Richmond (173.8)A10A0-036%-4.2
2-8VCU (31.1)A10H0-024%-8.6
2-11St. Bonaventure (61.9)A10H0-032%-5.5
2-15Davidson (48.3)A10A0-015%-12.4
2-19Duquesne (255.5)A10A0-056%1.9
2-23Massachusetts (108.4)A10H0-051%0.3
2-26George Mason (200.3)A10H0-069%6.1
3-1Fordham (205.9)A10A0-045%-1.6
3-4Dayton (36.4)A10H0-024%-8.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

George Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


George Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  George Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
George WashingtonA1029.1826.1048.4840.81-0.88-4.80
VCUA100.003.8785.7177.840.002.16
RichmondA100.003.8457.1448.260.00-0.13
George MasonA100.003.8457.1443.110.00-0.53
DavidsonA100.003.8183.3368.250.001.39
DuquesneA100.453.7937.5034.68-0.11-1.16
FordhamA100.002.3257.1443.280.00-0.31
MassachusettsA100.892.3283.3358.370.600.39
Saint LouisA100.002.2633.3327.04-0.00-1.04
St. BonaventureA100.512.2566.6770.850.170.94
DaytonA100.002.2566.6772.300.001.00
Rhode IslandA100.002.2371.4369.750.000.88
Saint Joseph'sA100.002.2350.0046.060.00-0.18
La SalleA100.002.2360.0051.150.000.05
TempleAmer0.001.8371.4362.980.000.47
UCFAmer0.001.7883.3374.650.000.88
HowardMEAC0.001.750.0039.14-0.00-0.38
Penn St.B107.141.7257.1442.091.02-0.27
South FloridaAmer0.001.7266.6732.720.00-0.59
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC7.141.700.0035.50-7.14-0.49
HarvardIvy7.141.690.0044.83-7.14-0.18
Florida St.ACC0.001.6985.7161.690.000.40
SienaMAAC7.861.6733.3352.19-2.620.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC8.161.670.0025.09-8.16-0.83
Miami FLACC0.001.6671.4364.810.000.49
UABCUSA7.861.6450.0060.630.000.35
GeorgiaSEC7.141.6160.0052.811.430.09
PennIvy0.000.2540.0057.97-0.000.04
HoustonAmer0.000.2283.3376.370.000.12
CincinnatiAmer0.450.2185.7180.960.320.13
MemphisAmer0.000.1985.7159.740.000.04
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1966.6765.810.000.06
Boston CollegeACC0.510.1750.0027.250.00-0.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.170.0024.32-0.00-0.08
ClemsonACC0.600.1666.6753.460.200.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1633.3338.76-0.00-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1675.0047.510.00-0.01
DukeACC0.450.1687.5078.680.330.09
Georgia TechACC0.450.1666.6739.720.15-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1542.8642.47-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.1425.0063.95-0.000.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1416.6731.91-0.00-0.05
MercerSC0.000.1450.0053.050.000.01
KansasB121.620.1485.7176.171.150.07
TulsaAmer0.000.1460.0039.200.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.510.1380.0055.340.310.01
TulaneAmer0.000.1314.2926.81-0.00-0.06
FloridaSEC0.000.1387.5075.320.000.07
RiderMAAC0.000.1350.0047.990.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1333.3341.52-0.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1333.3338.19-0.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.1385.7155.550.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.1357.1442.660.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1166.6775.370.000.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.110.0023.46-0.00-0.06
HamptonMEAC0.000.110.0034.18-0.00-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.1185.7162.920.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.1185.7180.010.000.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1120.0034.39-0.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.1166.6756.020.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.1175.0067.660.000.04
MarylandB100.000.1185.7156.490.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.11100.0083.120.000.07
James MadisonCAA0.000.110.0028.15-0.00-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1116.6732.62-0.00-0.04
SMUAmer0.000.1157.1469.300.000.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1171.4350.570.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.1171.4352.370.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.110.0042.55-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.11100.0086.250.000.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1185.7173.010.000.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1125.0039.28-0.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.1183.3344.770.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.1028.5733.92-0.00-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth1.110.1050.0064.840.000.03
BrownIvy0.000.0950.0042.420.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.090.0023.47-0.00-0.05
CornellIvy0.510.0928.5730.63-0.22-0.04
YaleIvy0.000.0933.3364.14-0.000.03
Holy CrossPat0.890.0942.8647.69-0.13-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.080.0027.77-0.00-0.04
MichiganB100.000.0871.4366.530.000.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0816.6737.09-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0866.6751.090.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0862.5056.500.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0850.0045.920.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.08100.0080.780.000.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0857.1467.020.000.03
VMISC0.000.080.0021.15-0.00-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.510.080.0013.30-0.51-0.06
AuburnSEC0.000.0883.3355.200.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0825.0056.92-0.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0860.0070.500.000.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0871.4346.010.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0840.0037.65-0.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0871.4349.770.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0842.8635.68-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0816.6727.03-0.00-0.04
Notre DameACC0.000.08100.0075.010.000.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0860.0052.760.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0840.0043.86-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.710.0875.0054.320.360.01
ColgatePat0.450.0820.0041.31-0.27-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0860.0070.140.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0885.7165.670.000.02
StanfordP120.890.0675.0059.100.450.01
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.630.000.03
AmericanPat0.000.0616.6735.65-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.22-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0616.6736.35-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0024.19-0.00-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.510.0640.0067.95-0.100.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0625.0043.26-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0620.0036.00-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0657.1436.050.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0612.5022.55-0.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.480.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.510.0571.4386.030.220.04
DrexelCAA0.000.0542.8636.82-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0583.3380.700.000.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.600.0520.0048.38-0.36-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0571.4363.090.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0571.4358.670.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.510.05100.0089.040.510.04
TroySB0.510.0533.3332.23-0.17-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0557.1448.860.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0550.0071.330.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0528.5730.29-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0550.0043.610.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0571.4366.220.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0514.2934.56-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0032.39-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0550.0029.280.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0566.6756.360.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0516.6733.69-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC1.110.0520.0049.38-0.66-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0528.5734.18-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0550.0051.820.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.0560.0057.900.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0525.0024.66-0.00-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0583.3359.600.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0571.4343.020.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.050.0024.77-0.00-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0512.5048.98-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0540.0057.49-0.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.050.0019.30-0.00-0.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0520.0042.63-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.0550.0036.240.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0585.7163.780.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0550.0054.490.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0542.8634.17-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0525.0038.72-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.450.0550.0056.260.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0557.1440.550.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0585.7175.950.000.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0542.8637.25-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0571.4356.280.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0533.3323.33-0.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0566.6770.140.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.05100.0082.550.000.03
AlbanyAE0.960.0550.0060.380.000.01
BaylorB120.000.05100.0074.460.000.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.0542.8640.94-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0516.6730.27-0.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0583.3362.080.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0583.3375.060.000.03
LibertyBSth0.000.0540.0050.71-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0520.0032.60-0.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0533.3340.49-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0571.4371.570.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0571.4374.450.000.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0516.6734.31-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0557.1455.810.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5750.20-0.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0357.1448.240.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.510.0383.3361.490.340.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.510.0350.0056.430.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0383.3358.030.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0328.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0357.1447.320.00-0.00
LehighPat0.000.0333.3367.01-0.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0360.0057.170.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0383.3362.840.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0333.3345.58-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0340.0061.37-0.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0333.3341.11-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0320.0034.22-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.710.0350.0050.940.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0066.170.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.970.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0333.3331.87-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0314.2933.07-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0033.010.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0314.2931.71-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0383.3378.430.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0383.3356.560.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0350.0035.230.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0342.8638.05-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0056.71-0.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0325.0034.47-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0342.8650.36-0.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.170.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0357.1464.940.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0328.5728.46-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.430.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0316.6718.96-0.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0340.0055.44-0.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0350.0052.330.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0371.4368.660.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0017.30-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0380.0035.960.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0019.51-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0350.0043.490.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0385.7155.890.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0061.590.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0350.0057.480.000.00
NJITASun0.000.0342.8650.32-0.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0385.7172.660.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0049.010.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0357.1440.590.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0350.0046.670.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0023.26-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0325.0040.81-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0333.3353.85-0.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.840.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0371.4355.750.000.00