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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


Fort Wayne

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:165.4
Current RPI:163
Expected SOS:268
Current SOS:238
Current Record:15-10
Expected Record:16-11
Current Conf Record:7-7
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-3
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:101
Expected OOC SOS:291



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-10152.445.82%
16-11173.145.09%
15-12192.69.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fort Wayne.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Arkansas (34.7)SECA92-83L0%0.0
11-16Illinois St. (31.5)MVCA75-57L0%0.0
11-19UMass Lowell (302.1)AEH94-81W100%0.0
11-22Indiana (90.9)B10H71-68W100%0.0
11-26Mississippi Valley St. (338.9)SWACH79-54W100%0.0
11-30Austin Peay (274.2)OVCA99-103W100%0.0
12-3Miami OH (302.7)MACH87-71W100%0.0
12-6Notre Dame (27.6)ACCA87-72L0%0.0
12-10Austin Peay (274.2)OVCH98-58W100%0.0
12-18Stetson (330.9)ASunA74-93W100%0.0
12-22Detroit (287.1)HorzA86-93W100%0.0
12-29Western Illinois (316.8)SumH91-93L0%0.0
12-31Oral Roberts (290.9)SumH102-91W100%0.0
1-4Nebraska Omaha (156.3)SumA78-80W100%0.0
1-7Denver (192.9)SumH87-83W100%0.0
1-14South Dakota (122.8)SumA66-63L0%0.0
1-19North Dakota St. (95.4)SumA89-83L0%0.0
1-21South Dakota St. (206.9)SumA77-67L0%0.0
1-25IUPUI (230.6)SumH103-73W100%0.0
1-28Oral Roberts (290.9)SumA83-87W100%0.0
2-4Denver (192.9)SumA76-73L0%0.0
2-8South Dakota (122.8)SumH82-93L0%0.0
2-11Nebraska Omaha (156.3)SumH108-101W100%0.0
2-15North Dakota St. (95.4)SumH77-61W100%0.0
2-18South Dakota St. (206.9)SumH89-97L0%0.0
2-23IUPUI (230.6)SumA0-057%1.9
2-25Western Illinois (316.8)SumA0-079%8.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fort Wayne's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fort Wayne's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fort Wayne.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Fort WayneSum26.4426.4860.7562.925.686.84
IUPUISum2.974.7040.0040.43-0.59-0.90
North Dakota St.Sum4.854.6666.6765.971.621.49
Western IllinoisSum2.924.6522.7322.92-1.59-2.52
DenverSum4.834.6457.6957.170.740.67
South DakotaSum4.814.6460.0060.060.960.93
South Dakota St.Sum4.834.6438.4639.12-1.11-1.01
Nebraska OmahaSum4.824.6456.0055.800.580.54
Oral RobertsSum4.904.6423.0823.08-2.64-2.50
Austin PeayOVC4.113.8033.3332.42-1.37-1.33
Miami OHMAC2.162.0632.0030.98-0.78-0.78
ArkansasSEC2.151.9974.0770.981.040.83
IndianaB102.151.9855.5654.710.240.19
Illinois St.MVC2.041.9281.4880.981.281.19
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.071.9114.8118.71-1.46-1.20
UMass LowellAE2.071.9134.4834.48-0.64-0.59
DetroitHorz2.001.8523.0823.17-1.08-0.99
Notre DameACC2.001.8574.0773.520.960.87
StetsonASun2.001.8530.7729.83-0.77-0.75
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.240.2846.1546.96-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.270.2614.8115.43-0.19-0.18
Murray St.OVC0.300.2646.1546.49-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.160.2440.7442.17-0.03-0.04
DrakeMVC0.250.2222.2223.45-0.14-0.12
MilwaukeeHorz0.150.2025.0026.25-0.08-0.10
Missouri St.MVC0.220.2051.7250.330.010.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.190.2037.5039.90-0.05-0.04
UMKCWAC0.220.1948.0046.99-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.220.1946.1546.03-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.150.1971.4368.340.060.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1659.2659.740.020.03
PurdueB100.110.1682.1480.780.070.10
Northern KentuckyHorz0.190.1662.9662.600.050.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.1640.7440.19-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.180.1653.5751.590.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.190.1655.5655.100.020.02
Kansas St.B120.120.1460.7159.890.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.150.1463.6464.970.040.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.1350.0049.820.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1329.6331.16-0.05-0.05
LipscombASun0.150.1355.5655.680.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.150.1342.8643.65-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1350.0049.370.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.1357.1457.070.020.02
MontanaBSky0.150.1350.0050.340.000.00
OaklandHorz0.150.1374.0773.500.070.06
TulsaAmer0.140.1346.1547.81-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.110.1355.5655.020.010.01
IdahoBSky0.140.1347.8350.77-0.010.00
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1348.1547.59-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.150.1334.7836.95-0.04-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.140.1351.8554.430.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.140.1386.2186.330.100.09
WyomingMWC0.140.1353.8553.510.010.01
MichiganB100.110.1364.2963.090.030.03
Michigan St.B100.140.1359.2657.930.030.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1222.2224.27-0.06-0.06
Texas A&MSEC0.140.1251.8551.660.010.00
Chicago St.WAC0.080.1012.0011.80-0.06-0.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.100.003.38-0.11-0.09
Ball St.MAC0.080.1062.9661.340.020.02
DelawareCAA0.120.1037.0435.10-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.1037.0436.81-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1048.1547.60-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.110.1029.6330.60-0.04-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.110.1034.6233.56-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.110.1044.0042.77-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.110.1066.6764.750.040.03
MississippiSEC0.110.1060.7159.870.020.02
North FloridaASun0.110.1030.7732.11-0.04-0.03
PittsburghACC0.110.1053.5750.750.010.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1077.7877.990.060.05
Wright St.Horz0.110.1062.9662.450.030.02
GonzagaWCC0.110.09100.0099.810.110.09
HoustonAmer0.110.0970.3769.130.040.04
NebraskaB100.110.0944.0042.70-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.0948.2848.17-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.100.0957.6958.050.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.110.0978.5776.210.060.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0937.5040.16-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.110.0925.9325.77-0.05-0.04
LibertyBSth0.100.0957.6957.630.020.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0978.5778.520.040.05
AmericanPat0.040.0725.0025.07-0.02-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0769.2368.600.030.03
High PointBSth0.080.0744.0045.26-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.080.0750.0048.770.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.080.0756.0055.930.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0769.2368.790.030.03
XavierBE0.080.0764.2964.300.020.02
BaylorB120.070.0781.4878.550.040.04
BelmontOVC0.080.0780.0079.920.050.04
CreightonBE0.070.0777.7875.390.040.03
DaytonA100.080.0780.7779.440.050.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0773.0873.880.020.03
HowardMEAC0.040.0719.2321.44-0.02-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0751.8551.270.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0740.7440.75-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.070.0744.0043.41-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.040.0762.9661.410.010.02
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0744.0046.00-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.070.0733.3333.59-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.070.0764.0063.500.020.02
RichmondA100.070.0759.2659.930.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.040.0712.0013.36-0.03-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0757.6956.380.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0712.5014.87-0.06-0.05
USCP120.070.0777.7875.870.040.03
USC UpstateASun0.070.0750.0049.750.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.080.0744.4443.90-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.080.0664.2963.820.020.02
AkronMAC0.040.0677.7876.390.020.03
BradleyMVC0.070.0634.4834.78-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0650.0050.440.000.00
CaliforniaP120.070.0666.6766.210.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0653.8551.910.010.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0625.0026.71-0.04-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0664.0065.600.020.02
Green BayHorz0.040.0657.6958.300.010.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0642.8642.57-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0644.4443.17-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0635.7135.66-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0629.1731.48-0.03-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0648.0047.41-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.040.0668.0068.550.010.02
PortlandWCC0.070.0629.6329.44-0.03-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0650.0046.860.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.080.0648.1549.49-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.070.0626.0928.38-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0634.7836.63-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0678.5777.380.040.03
Weber St.BSky0.070.0660.8760.770.020.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0632.1431.91-0.03-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0661.5459.750.020.01
AlbanyAE0.070.0658.6259.810.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0633.3334.84-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.070.0630.0029.22-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.070.0617.2417.48-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.070.0660.7159.030.010.01
UMBCAE0.070.0661.5460.470.020.01
VermontAE0.070.0682.7682.940.040.04
Loyola MDPat0.070.0648.1549.03-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.064.005.36-0.07-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0628.0028.91-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0652.1749.960.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.040.0632.1430.40-0.01-0.02
FloridaSEC0.040.0682.1480.600.020.04
Georgia TechACC0.040.0655.5652.750.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0637.5042.38-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.070.0633.3331.80-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0675.0073.470.040.03
North CarolinaACC0.070.0682.1480.660.050.04
Penn St.B100.070.0650.0048.740.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0630.7734.71-0.03-0.02
SeattleWAC0.070.0639.1337.81-0.02-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0648.0047.16-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0659.2662.730.010.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0653.5751.920.010.00
WisconsinB100.070.0681.4880.840.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.040.0320.0022.21-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.040.0340.0040.08-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.040.0346.4343.89-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.040.0316.0018.13-0.03-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.0320.0020.88-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.040.0338.4640.55-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.040.0323.0822.08-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.040.0348.0047.45-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0333.3332.68-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.040.0357.1456.440.010.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0337.0438.57-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.040.0364.2964.460.010.01
TCUB120.040.0359.2657.620.010.00
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0342.3143.63-0.01-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0353.5753.370.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0318.5220.01-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.31-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0360.7158.720.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0324.1424.50-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0348.1547.57-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0344.8343.96-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0352.0053.230.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0360.7159.670.000.01
BryantNEC0.040.0335.7137.15-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.040.0378.5777.620.020.02
ClemsonACC0.040.0351.8553.680.000.00
ColgatePat0.040.0331.0332.74-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.040.0355.5655.660.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.040.0325.9327.44-0.02-0.01
DukeACC0.040.0378.5776.170.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0353.8554.930.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0365.3865.420.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0342.8645.36-0.01-0.00
KansasB120.040.0389.2987.840.030.02
KentuckySEC0.040.0382.1481.760.020.02
MarylandB100.040.0377.7876.990.020.02
Miami FLACC0.040.0370.3767.240.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0351.8550.690.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0351.7253.710.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0351.7249.530.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0353.5752.340.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0366.6765.160.010.01
RutgersB100.040.0342.8642.33-0.01-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.040.0357.1457.270.010.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.040.0358.3359.220.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0370.3770.540.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0352.1753.700.000.00
SyracuseACC0.040.0358.6257.910.010.00
TennesseeSEC0.040.0351.8552.250.000.00
TexasB120.040.0335.7134.84-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0376.0076.570.020.02
VillanovaBE0.040.0389.6688.760.030.02
VirginiaACC0.040.0366.6767.600.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.040.0370.3769.250.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.040.0357.1455.800.010.00
West VirginiaB120.040.0378.5777.800.020.02