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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Fort Wayne

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:178.0
Current RPI:178
Expected SOS:252
Current SOS:252
Current Record:16-12
Expected Record:16-12
Current Conf Record:8-9
Expected Conf Record:8-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-3
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:89
Expected OOC SOS:274



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-12178.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fort Wayne.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Arkansas (28.0)SECA92-83L0%0.0
11-16Illinois St. (33.0)MVCA75-57L0%0.0
11-19UMass Lowell (309.0)AEH94-81W100%0.0
11-22Indiana (79.0)B10H71-68W100%0.0
11-26Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACH79-54W100%0.0
11-30Austin Peay (261.0)OVCA99-103W100%0.0
12-3Miami OH (302.0)MACH87-71W100%0.0
12-6Notre Dame (23.0)ACCA87-72L0%0.0
12-10Austin Peay (261.0)OVCH98-58W100%0.0
12-18Stetson (328.0)ASunA74-93W100%0.0
12-22Detroit (289.0)HorzA86-93W100%0.0
12-29Western Illinois (325.0)SumH91-93L0%0.0
12-31Oral Roberts (292.0)SumH102-91W100%0.0
1-4Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumA78-80W100%0.0
1-7Denver (207.0)SumH87-83W100%0.0
1-14South Dakota (123.0)SumA66-63L0%0.0
1-19North Dakota St. (111.0)SumA89-83L0%0.0
1-21South Dakota St. (160.0)SumA77-67L0%0.0
1-25IUPUI (218.0)SumH103-73W100%0.0
1-28Oral Roberts (292.0)SumA83-87W100%0.0
2-4Denver (207.0)SumA76-73L0%0.0
2-8South Dakota (123.0)SumH82-93L0%0.0
2-11Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumH108-101W100%0.0
2-15North Dakota St. (111.0)SumH77-61W100%0.0
2-18South Dakota St. (160.0)SumH89-97L0%0.0
2-23IUPUI (218.0)SumA83-82L0%0.0
2-25Western Illinois (325.0)SumA92-96W100%0.0
3-5Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumN84-80L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fort Wayne's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fort Wayne's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fort Wayne.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Fort WayneSum26.5026.5059.0259.024.784.78
Nebraska OmahaSum6.336.3357.1457.140.900.90
South Dakota St.Sum4.694.6946.6746.67-0.31-0.31
IUPUISum4.694.6939.2939.29-1.01-1.01
South DakotaSum4.614.6162.0762.071.111.11
North Dakota St.Sum4.564.5661.5461.541.051.05
Western IllinoisSum4.554.5520.8320.83-2.66-2.66
DenverSum4.544.5453.5753.570.320.32
Oral RobertsSum4.474.4723.0823.08-2.41-2.41
Austin PeayOVC3.653.6534.6234.62-1.12-1.12
Miami OHMAC1.981.9831.0331.03-0.75-0.75
ArkansasSEC1.911.9172.7372.730.870.87
IndianaB101.911.9156.2556.250.240.24
Illinois St.MVC1.851.8580.6580.651.131.13
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.841.8422.5822.58-1.01-1.01
UMass LowellAE1.841.8434.4834.48-0.57-0.57
DetroitHorz1.791.7924.1424.14-0.92-0.92
Notre DameACC1.791.7972.7372.730.810.81
StetsonASun1.791.7928.5728.57-0.77-0.77
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.260.2644.4444.44-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.240.2417.8617.86-0.16-0.16
Murray St.OVC0.240.2445.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.220.2241.9441.94-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.210.2129.4129.41-0.09-0.09
Eastern MichiganMAC0.210.2141.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.200.2056.2556.250.020.02
DrakeMVC0.200.2020.6920.69-0.12-0.12
Missouri St.MVC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
NorthwesternB100.170.1767.6567.650.060.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
Kansas St.B120.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
PurdueB100.150.1578.1278.120.080.08
EvansvilleMVC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.150.1561.7661.760.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.140.1487.8887.880.110.11
North DakotaBSky0.130.1367.8667.860.050.05
LipscombASun0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
OaklandHorz0.120.1273.3373.330.060.06
MontanaBSky0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
TulsaAmer0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
MississippiSEC0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
WyomingMWC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Iowa St.B120.110.1169.7069.700.050.05
MichiganB100.110.1168.5768.570.040.04
PittsburghACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
IdahoBSky0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0910.3410.34-0.08-0.08
DelawareCAA0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
NJITASun0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.093.333.33-0.08-0.08
Ball St.MAC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
New HampshireAE0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
North FloridaASun0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0918.5218.52-0.05-0.05
USCP120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.090.0996.9796.970.080.08
LibertyBSth0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
NebraskaB100.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
AmericanPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
BaylorB120.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
BelmontOVC0.060.0677.7877.780.040.04
CreightonBE0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
DaytonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
High PointBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
UC DavisBW0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
WoffordSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.060.0661.7661.760.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
AlbanyAE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Green BayHorz0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
HartfordAE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
VermontAE0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
Weber St.BSky0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00