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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Fort Wayne

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:188.1
Current RPI:187
Expected SOS:229
Current SOS:262
Current Record:10-9
Expected Record:14-13
Current Conf Record:3-3
Expected Conf Record:7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:160
Expected OOC SOS:249



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-9107.20.05%
17-10125.71.49%
16-11146.88.61%
15-12167.522.43%
14-13188.332.32%
13-14207.624.14%
12-15225.39.37%
11-16242.21.39%
10-17259.20.19%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fort Wayne.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Oakland (137.7)HorzA85-71L0%0.0
11-15Delaware St. (350.2)MEACH85-71W100%0.0
11-18Illinois Chicago (260.6)HorzA51-67W100%0.0
11-22Kentucky (20.8)SECA86-67L0%0.0
11-25East Tennessee St. (61.7)SCA83-73L0%0.0
11-28Detroit (297.0)HorzH91-82W100%0.0
12-3SIU Edwardsville (271.1)OVCH86-71W100%0.0
12-6Akron (213.7)MACA83-79L0%0.0
12-9Miami OH (184.4)MACA81-73L0%0.0
12-16Stetson (305.8)ASunH88-84W100%0.0
12-18Indiana (115.9)B10A72-92W100%0.0
12-21Liberty (224.1)BSthN75-64W100%0.0
12-22Louisiana Tech (159.7)CUSAN85-76L0%0.0
1-4Oral Roberts (220.4)SumA76-60L0%0.0
1-6Denver (272.5)SumA63-82W100%0.0
1-11South Dakota (99.2)SumH58-68L0%0.0
1-13Nebraska Omaha (250.6)SumH82-78W100%0.0
1-17Western Illinois (297.8)SumA75-74L0%0.0
1-20North Dakota St. (167.2)SumH92-88W100%0.0
1-27South Dakota St. (65.7)SumA0-018%-10.4
2-1Oral Roberts (220.4)SumH0-071%6.2
2-3Denver (272.5)SumH0-077%8.1
2-8South Dakota (99.2)SumA0-020%-9.6
2-10Nebraska Omaha (250.6)SumA0-056%1.8
2-14Western Illinois (297.8)SumH0-086%11.9
2-17North Dakota St. (167.2)SumA0-033%-4.9
2-24South Dakota St. (65.7)SumH0-036%-4.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fort Wayne's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fort Wayne's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fort Wayne.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Fort WayneSum26.3726.4057.1454.763.772.52
Western IllinoisSum2.984.5938.4633.18-0.69-1.54
North Dakota St.Sum2.914.5947.0651.65-0.170.15
Oral RobertsSum3.074.5826.3229.98-1.45-1.83
Nebraska OmahaSum2.934.5626.3228.49-1.39-1.96
South DakotaSum3.004.5572.2270.931.331.91
South Dakota St.Sum0.374.5572.2272.950.172.09
DenverSum2.914.5535.2938.54-0.85-1.04
OaklandHorz2.842.0560.0064.000.570.57
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.832.0444.4447.61-0.31-0.10
DetroitHorz2.772.0122.2226.91-1.54-0.93
Miami OHMAC2.732.0043.7539.36-0.34-0.42
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.801.9738.8933.96-0.62-0.63
StetsonASun2.771.9535.2938.34-0.82-0.46
East Tennessee St.SC2.841.9576.4778.421.501.11
AkronMAC2.631.9243.7542.94-0.33-0.27
Delaware St.MEAC2.771.920.009.47-2.77-1.55
KentuckySEC2.771.9272.2266.881.230.65
IndianaB102.631.8561.1152.430.580.09
LibertyBSth2.631.8556.2559.440.330.35
Louisiana TechCUSA2.631.8550.0053.700.000.14
IUPUIHorz0.300.3027.7829.84-0.13-0.12
Youngstown St.Horz0.340.2921.0523.50-0.20-0.15
Missouri St.MVC0.210.2770.0068.420.080.10
DrakeMVC0.200.2755.0049.070.02-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.300.2745.0047.05-0.03-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.350.2566.6773.240.120.12
Montana St.BSky0.270.2450.0047.670.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.2229.4133.94-0.08-0.07
Green BayHorz0.270.2225.0027.94-0.14-0.10
Cleveland St.Horz0.280.2220.0023.36-0.17-0.12
Wright St.Horz0.280.2268.4269.240.100.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.210.2157.8966.250.030.07
North DakotaBSky0.150.2129.4134.76-0.06-0.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.300.2058.8249.760.05-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.150.2072.2274.900.070.10
KansasB120.200.1984.2179.740.140.12
Eastern MichiganMAC0.270.1946.6746.98-0.02-0.01
ToledoMAC0.210.1666.6767.690.070.06
Western MichiganMAC0.290.1652.9452.230.020.01
ColoradoP120.070.1460.0053.730.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.1458.8257.140.030.02
San Jose St.MWC0.140.1411.7612.81-0.11-0.10
UC IrvineBW0.070.1430.0039.93-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.150.1411.1117.96-0.11-0.09
WyomingMWC0.070.1461.1156.830.020.02
UMKCWAC0.070.1421.0524.71-0.04-0.07
TCUB120.140.1373.6865.590.060.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.140.1370.5969.610.060.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1316.6724.29-0.10-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.1310.0019.62-0.11-0.08
Southern MissCUSA0.070.1341.1838.46-0.01-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.140.1333.3334.11-0.05-0.04
UCLAP120.210.1365.0062.040.060.03
IowaB100.070.1347.6244.03-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.140.1363.6457.640.040.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1357.8953.190.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.1344.4444.86-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.1347.0648.440.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.200.1377.7869.360.110.05
TroySB0.280.1335.2942.76-0.08-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.1080.0078.860.090.06
USCP120.150.1071.4368.300.060.04
CampbellBSth0.070.1043.7545.34-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.140.1089.4785.190.110.07
Penn St.B100.140.1061.9055.770.030.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.1068.4264.200.020.03
MississippiSEC0.000.1052.6345.860.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.1072.2258.940.030.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.1038.8943.43-0.03-0.01
NebraskaB100.140.1066.6759.780.050.02
Arkansas St.SB0.140.1027.7831.12-0.06-0.04
MercerSC0.150.1044.4454.89-0.020.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.150.1068.7567.640.060.03
HowardMEAC0.150.1010.5327.31-0.12-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.150.1044.4445.98-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.1061.1158.750.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.070.1062.5058.700.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.150.1022.2228.59-0.08-0.04
DePaulBE0.220.1042.1134.32-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.140.1070.5975.930.060.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.1043.7554.09-0.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1041.1839.13-0.03-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1042.1143.50-0.02-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.1026.3231.52-0.07-0.04
Ohio St.B100.080.0980.9576.520.050.05
MissouriSEC0.080.0966.6763.200.030.02
Michigan St.B100.130.0985.0083.180.090.06
AmericanPat0.090.0826.3228.14-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.090.0866.6763.070.030.02
Iowa St.B120.090.0861.1147.260.02-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.070.0737.5031.76-0.02-0.03
NavyPat0.070.0760.0055.160.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0733.3335.19-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.070.0755.0050.370.010.00
ArizonaP120.070.0780.0078.980.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0738.8946.03-0.02-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0736.8444.12-0.02-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0733.3333.800.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0773.6862.720.030.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0716.6724.91-0.05-0.03
LipscombASun0.070.0752.9459.360.000.01
Little RockSB0.070.0722.2225.26-0.04-0.03
MontanaBSky0.070.0770.5973.140.030.03
NJITASun0.070.0738.8942.60-0.02-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0731.5835.150.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0711.1115.30-0.05-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0768.4254.090.020.01
PepperdineWCC0.070.0710.5318.34-0.05-0.04
TulsaAmer0.070.0755.0053.290.010.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0722.2227.33-0.04-0.03
UNLVMWC0.070.0773.6865.280.030.02
Wichita St.Amer0.000.0778.9577.360.000.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.0750.0052.440.000.00
DuquesneA100.140.0770.0058.100.060.01
FIUCUSA0.070.0735.2935.57-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.140.0750.0045.900.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0720.0028.72-0.05-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0741.1843.41-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.080.0740.0047.86-0.02-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.080.0717.6517.23-0.05-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.070.0745.0048.56-0.01-0.00
OklahomaB120.070.0777.7867.900.040.02
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0729.4127.74-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.080.0761.1160.790.020.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0750.0055.650.000.01
WashingtonP120.070.0770.0061.440.030.02
WinthropBSth0.080.0746.6758.78-0.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.140.0735.0026.14-0.04-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0615.7920.92-0.05-0.04
BelmontOVC0.070.0671.4374.650.030.03
FordhamA100.150.0631.5829.06-0.06-0.03
FurmanSC0.070.0666.6768.500.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.150.0668.4263.640.050.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0672.2274.700.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0629.4139.620.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0655.5656.710.010.01
SamfordSC0.070.0627.7832.66-0.03-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0627.7834.50-0.03-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0635.2940.48-0.02-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0618.7518.400.00-0.04
UABCUSA0.070.0661.1164.130.020.02
UTSACUSA0.070.0641.1839.65-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.070.0625.0024.17-0.04-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0638.8935.35-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.0668.7563.620.000.02
MichiganB100.140.0675.0070.270.070.03
PurdueB100.070.0690.4888.380.060.05
AlabamaSEC0.070.0668.4258.990.030.01
Chicago St.WAC0.130.060.003.12-0.13-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.140.0668.4257.780.050.01
IllinoisB100.000.0647.3744.270.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0673.6871.550.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.070.0672.2268.920.030.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0668.4263.980.030.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0636.8435.55-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.070.0321.0521.99-0.04-0.02
UCFAmer0.070.0368.4260.880.030.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0366.6765.530.030.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0378.9572.990.040.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0331.5830.00-0.03-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.080.0344.4441.15-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0333.3337.22-0.03-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0344.4442.74-0.01-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0323.5325.630.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.039.5217.940.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.070.0375.0070.690.030.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0321.4326.21-0.04-0.02
DavidsonA100.080.0358.8261.440.010.01
DaytonA100.080.0347.3750.95-0.000.00
DelawareCAA0.070.0347.3743.04-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0342.1132.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0331.5832.72-0.03-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0352.6347.360.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0337.5037.680.00-0.01
George MasonA100.070.0345.0041.35-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0366.6765.360.020.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0320.0041.76-0.04-0.01
HartfordAE0.080.0352.6346.880.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.035.8819.37-0.06-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0347.3745.87-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0370.0068.220.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0340.0042.57-0.02-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0383.3381.350.050.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0377.7871.650.040.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.030.0010.65-0.08-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0323.5328.70-0.04-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0318.7536.760.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0344.4446.64-0.01-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0378.9576.760.000.02
PennIvy0.070.0364.7162.780.020.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0340.0030.87-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0352.9460.270.000.01
RiceCUSA0.070.0311.1117.69-0.05-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0350.0051.650.000.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0347.3746.91-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.070.0357.8954.500.010.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0327.7831.67-0.03-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0352.6350.250.000.00
TexasB120.070.0363.1657.620.020.00
TulaneAmer0.080.0363.1657.900.020.01
UMBCAE0.070.0358.8258.360.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0350.0051.360.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0368.4270.810.030.01
XavierBE0.070.0385.7180.080.050.02
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0344.4446.10-0.01-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0370.0065.320.000.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0355.0050.370.010.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0363.1661.050.020.01
RutgersB100.000.0357.8947.140.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.070.0375.0067.890.030.01
WisconsinB100.070.0350.0046.260.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0389.4777.030.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0366.6755.930.020.00
HarvardIvy0.070.0337.5046.63-0.02-0.00
LSUSEC0.070.0361.1153.160.020.00
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0327.7840.88-0.03-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0337.5045.22-0.02-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0361.1151.900.020.00
SyracuseACC0.060.0368.4261.270.020.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0321.0544.26-0.04-0.00
TowsonCAA0.060.0363.1666.000.020.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0366.6766.010.020.01
VermontAE0.070.0373.6877.120.030.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0384.2178.170.000.02