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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Fort Wayne

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:168.7
Current RPI:187
Expected SOS:248
Current SOS:256
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:15-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:147
Expected OOC SOS:260



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-344.00.01%
22-452.20.04%
21-553.20.24%
20-669.70.75%
19-781.22.34%
18-898.85.76%
17-9118.010.35%
16-10137.915.40%
15-11159.318.01%
14-12183.217.38%
13-13204.513.90%
12-14225.48.72%
11-15248.54.46%
10-16269.21.71%
9-17284.00.71%
8-18300.70.18%
7-19318.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fort Wayne.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Oakland (109.5)HorzA85-71L0%0.0
11-15Delaware St. (346.5)MEACH85-71W100%0.0
11-18Illinois Chicago (229.5)HorzA51-67W100%0.0
11-22Kentucky (15.3)SECA0-05%-20.1
11-25East Tennessee St. (158.0)SCA0-041%-2.8
11-28Detroit (277.7)HorzH0-081%10.5
12-3SIU Edwardsville (287.7)OVCH0-086%13.1
12-6Akron (118.6)MACA0-033%-5.4
12-9Miami OH (202.7)MACA0-055%1.6
12-16Stetson (321.2)ASunH0-086%12.8
12-18Indiana (137.3)B10A0-024%-8.4
12-21Liberty (192.4)BSthN0-056%1.8
1-4Oral Roberts (254.8)SumA0-064%4.2
1-6Denver (265.1)SumA0-057%2.1
1-11South Dakota (127.7)SumH0-048%-0.5
1-13Nebraska Omaha (243.1)SumH0-072%7.0
1-17Western Illinois (286.4)SumA0-063%3.8
1-20North Dakota St. (146.9)SumH0-059%2.6
1-27South Dakota St. (116.5)SumA0-031%-6.1
2-1Oral Roberts (254.8)SumH0-080%10.2
2-3Denver (265.1)SumH0-075%8.1
2-8South Dakota (127.7)SumA0-029%-6.5
2-10Nebraska Omaha (243.1)SumA0-053%1.0
2-14Western Illinois (286.4)SumH0-079%9.8
2-17North Dakota St. (146.9)SumA0-039%-3.4
2-24South Dakota St. (116.5)SumH0-050%-0.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fort Wayne's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fort Wayne's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fort Wayne.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Fort WayneSum32.6426.4576.9259.7617.575.16
Western IllinoisSum0.004.79100.0039.630.00-0.99
North Dakota St.Sum0.004.7833.3353.710.000.35
Oral RobertsSum0.004.770.0022.850.00-2.59
Nebraska OmahaSum0.004.750.0035.630.00-1.37
South DakotaSum0.004.7566.6768.150.001.72
DenverSum0.004.740.0038.430.00-1.10
South Dakota St.Sum0.004.7466.6761.650.001.10
OaklandHorz16.672.1350.0064.490.000.62
Illinois ChicagoHorz19.442.1266.6750.146.480.01
DetroitHorz0.002.080.0029.670.00-0.85
Miami OHMAC0.002.08100.0039.740.00-0.43
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.002.0433.3330.560.00-0.79
StetsonASun0.002.0333.3334.370.00-0.63
East Tennessee St.SC0.002.0233.3357.780.000.31
AkronMAC0.001.99100.0060.100.000.40
Delaware St.MEAC18.751.990.0022.36-18.75-1.10
KentuckySEC0.001.9975.0071.050.000.84
IndianaB100.001.9233.3340.030.00-0.38
LibertyBSth0.001.9233.3361.300.000.43
IUPUIHorz0.000.310.0032.200.00-0.11
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.300.0027.250.00-0.14
Missouri St.MVC0.000.3066.6763.230.000.08
DrakeMVC0.000.2950.0035.740.00-0.08
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.28100.0060.010.000.06
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.26100.0070.960.000.11
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.2333.3341.010.00-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.2333.3333.580.00-0.08
Green BayHorz0.000.230.0044.830.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.230.0041.210.00-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.000.2266.6746.830.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.2266.6773.200.000.10
Montana St.BSky0.000.2133.3350.350.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.2166.6748.040.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.21100.0082.910.000.14
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.20100.0053.280.000.01
ToledoMAC2.780.17100.0064.122.780.05
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1733.3353.190.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.15100.0052.860.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.1533.3353.300.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.15100.0057.360.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.150.0026.150.00-0.07
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1533.3338.880.00-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.150.0021.010.00-0.08
USC UpstateASun0.000.150.0039.010.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1433.3350.220.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.140.0018.400.00-0.09
TCUB120.000.14100.0061.150.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.14100.0071.700.000.06
BuffaloMAC0.000.14100.0061.010.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.14100.0066.010.000.04
OhioMAC0.000.1433.3348.480.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.14100.0064.910.000.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1350.0039.640.00-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.13100.0066.990.000.04
TroySB0.000.1333.3346.410.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.110.0051.410.000.00
USCP120.000.11100.0073.190.000.05
MississippiSEC0.000.11100.0053.790.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.11100.0060.400.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.10100.0071.180.000.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.10100.0051.080.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.1033.3345.540.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.1075.0076.250.000.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.100.0056.560.000.01
DukeACC0.000.10100.0083.580.000.07
HowardMEAC0.000.100.0046.080.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.100.0048.610.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.100.0038.990.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.10100.0050.450.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1025.0050.070.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.1066.6740.070.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1033.3342.010.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.1050.0066.530.000.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.100.0029.880.00-0.04
DePaulBE2.780.1033.3331.29-0.93-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.080.100.0049.25-2.08-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.10100.0059.870.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.1066.6757.890.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.1050.0077.820.000.05
AmericanPat0.000.080.0030.350.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.0875.0052.360.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0850.0038.730.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.080.0026.180.00-0.04
Wichita St.Amer0.000.08100.0082.290.000.05
Air ForceMWC0.000.07100.0044.740.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.07100.0083.700.000.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0733.3335.310.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.070.0043.690.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0733.3347.540.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.07100.0062.930.000.02
Little RockSB0.000.070.0037.050.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.070.0017.060.00-0.05
MontanaBSky0.000.0750.0060.130.000.01
NavyPat0.000.0750.0052.870.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.07100.0059.540.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.070.0016.000.00-0.05
RadfordBSth0.000.0750.0046.150.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.070.0030.910.00-0.03
StanfordP120.000.0775.0049.860.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.07100.0069.350.000.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0750.0048.690.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.070.0064.600.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0750.0050.360.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.07100.0064.720.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.070.0055.380.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0733.3351.560.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.070.0032.770.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0029.620.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.070.0031.380.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.0733.3349.220.00-0.00
NJITASun0.000.0733.3333.210.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.070.0036.690.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.070.0024.440.00-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.070.0034.600.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.070.0028.770.00-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.070.0035.450.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.07100.0047.670.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0733.3345.780.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0733.3334.680.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0750.0050.570.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.07100.0060.070.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0750.0046.810.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0766.6728.760.00-0.03
MichiganB100.000.07100.0061.710.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0775.0071.560.000.03
FordhamA100.000.0733.3336.170.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0750.0059.440.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0733.3335.150.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0766.6748.280.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0733.3347.970.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.070.0025.140.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.070.0036.490.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.070.0046.410.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0733.3330.460.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.0733.3327.450.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.070.0021.380.00-0.04
WoffordSC0.000.070.0039.740.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0775.0061.940.000.02
PurdueB100.000.07100.0085.360.000.05
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.007.670.00-0.05
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0059.240.000.01
IowaB100.000.06100.0058.250.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.06100.0080.230.000.04
TennesseeSEC0.000.06100.0048.350.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.06100.0071.010.000.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0666.6749.990.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0450.0065.140.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0466.6753.670.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0425.0035.000.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.040.0028.720.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0466.6762.150.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.040.0024.970.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.040.0023.830.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0466.6749.100.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.040.0018.970.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.04100.0061.780.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0366.6753.390.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0333.3350.150.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.0325.0038.080.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0022.840.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0067.460.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0033.700.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0048.680.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0333.3334.490.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0052.380.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.03100.0064.470.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0048.070.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0333.3326.430.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0333.3352.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0068.280.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0325.0045.730.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.03100.0057.270.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3336.610.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0042.850.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.0333.3349.350.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0333.3334.560.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA102.080.0366.6759.540.690.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0034.040.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.03100.0059.250.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.03100.0054.140.000.00
UMBCAE0.000.030.0052.900.000.00
ValparaisoMVC0.000.03100.0059.760.000.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0078.990.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3343.810.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.03100.0071.740.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0055.040.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0073.730.000.02
RutgersB100.000.03100.0046.880.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0067.950.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0366.6766.970.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0061.320.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6750.670.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.03100.0053.240.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3354.200.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.03100.0046.080.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0366.6759.740.000.01
New OrleansSlnd2.780.030.0042.81-2.78-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0375.0058.930.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.03100.0062.240.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0050.360.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0066.710.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0350.0060.430.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0366.6774.120.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0366.6771.200.000.01