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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Florida A&M

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:349.0
Current RPI:349
Expected SOS:351
Current SOS:351
Current Record:5-23
Expected Record:5-23
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-19
Current OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC RPI:350
Expected OOC SOS:324



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
5-23349.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11South Florida (316.0)AmerA84-73L0%0.0
11-20Air Force (250.0)MWCA87-62L0%0.0
11-22East Carolina (213.0)AmerA82-62L0%0.0
11-25Georgia Southern (121.0)SBN72-83L0%0.0
11-26Stetson (328.0)ASunN90-98L0%0.0
11-30Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunH74-76L0%0.0
12-3Southern (320.0)SWACH71-83L0%0.0
12-12Southeastern Louisiana (248.0)SlndA108-69L0%0.0
12-17Jacksonville (291.0)ASunH72-75L0%0.0
12-22Samford (170.0)SCA83-63L0%0.0
12-23Wisconsin (35.0)B10A90-37L0%0.0
1-4Howard (337.0)MEACA66-78W100%0.0
1-7Coppin St. (336.0)MEACH54-53W100%0.0
1-10Morgan St. (326.0)MEACH59-62L0%0.0
1-14Savannah St. (279.0)MEACA93-88L0%0.0
1-16Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACH76-82L0%0.0
1-23Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACH79-86L0%0.0
1-28Delaware St. (332.0)MEACA68-81W100%0.0
1-30Morgan St. (326.0)MEACA77-60L0%0.0
2-4Howard (337.0)MEACH71-62W100%0.0
2-6Delaware St. (332.0)MEACH77-80L0%0.0
2-11North Carolina A&T (350.0)MEACA77-83W100%0.0
2-13North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACA78-73L0%0.0
2-18Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACH65-77L0%0.0
2-20Hampton (283.0)MEACH69-76L0%0.0
2-25South Carolina St. (299.0)MEACA75-64L0%0.0
3-2Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACA69-59L0%0.0
3-7South Carolina St. (299.0)MEACN82-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida A&MMEAC26.1326.1319.5719.57-15.90-15.90
Bethune CookmanMEAC4.354.3521.4321.43-2.48-2.48
HowardMEAC4.234.2326.6726.67-1.97-1.97
South Carolina St.MEAC4.204.2025.9325.93-2.02-2.02
Delaware St.MEAC4.204.2025.0025.00-2.10-2.10
Morgan St.MEAC4.204.2040.7440.74-0.78-0.78
Norfolk St.MEAC2.602.6046.6746.67-0.17-0.17
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.582.5872.4172.411.161.16
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.562.5635.4835.48-0.74-0.74
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.552.553.453.45-2.38-2.38
Coppin St.MEAC2.542.5424.1424.14-1.31-1.31
Savannah St.MEAC2.482.4838.4638.46-0.57-0.57
HamptonMEAC2.472.4740.7440.74-0.46-0.46
JacksonvilleASun2.092.0944.4444.44-0.23-0.23
Kennesaw St.ASun2.032.0337.9337.93-0.49-0.49
StetsonASun2.022.0225.0025.00-1.01-1.01
East CarolinaAmer2.002.0043.7543.75-0.25-0.25
South FloridaAmer1.931.9320.6920.69-1.13-1.13
Air ForceMWC1.881.8830.0030.00-0.75-0.75
SamfordSC1.851.8551.6151.610.060.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.841.8444.8344.83-0.19-0.19
Georgia SouthernSB1.821.8251.7251.720.060.06
SouthernSWAC1.821.8241.3841.38-0.31-0.31
WisconsinB101.791.7972.7372.730.810.81
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.300.3076.6776.670.160.16
UCFAmer0.230.2365.6265.620.070.07
North FloridaASun0.220.2236.6736.67-0.06-0.06
USC UpstateASun0.210.2146.4346.43-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.190.1968.5768.570.070.07
LipscombASun0.180.1856.6756.670.020.02
NJITASun0.180.1831.0331.03-0.07-0.07
IowaB100.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
TulaneAmer0.170.1719.3519.35-0.11-0.11
SMUAmer0.170.1788.2488.240.130.13
South AlabamaSB0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.1537.0437.04-0.04-0.04
HoustonAmer0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
FurmanSC0.150.1563.3363.330.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
RiderMAAC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
CampbellBSth0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
St. John'sBE0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
TroySB0.120.1258.8258.820.020.02
UMBCAE0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
AkronMAC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
Colorado St.MWC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
RutgersB100.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
ClemsonACC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
DelawareCAA0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0958.6258.620.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
AmericanPat0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
VMISC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
MinnesotaB100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Ohio St.B100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
MarylandB100.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
WinthropBSth0.060.0680.0080.000.040.04
BrownIvy0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0687.5087.500.050.05
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
TowsonCAA0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
WagnerNEC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
MassachusettsA100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0619.2319.23-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0661.5461.540.010.01
IUPUISum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
VCUA100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
WoffordSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
OklahomaB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00