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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Florida A&M

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:295.0
Current RPI:295
Expected SOS:335
Current SOS:335
Current Record:12-18
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:9-9
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-11
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:308
Expected OOC SOS:278



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-18295.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Rutgers (192.0)AmerA92-84L0%0.0
11-10Princeton (122.0)IvyA67-50L0%0.0
11-14Stetson (333.0)ASunH63-60W100%0.0
11-18Toledo (38.0)MACA79-69L0%0.0
11-23Jacksonville (282.0)ASunA76-72L0%0.0
11-27UAB (152.0)CUSAA85-73L0%0.0
12-5Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACA91-87L0%0.0
12-7Hampton (204.0)MEACA72-62L0%0.0
12-17Mississippi St. (245.0)SECA78-65L0%0.0
12-19South Florida (232.0)AmerA73-70L0%0.0
12-22Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunN68-77L0%0.0
12-23Sacred Heart (338.0)NECN70-75W100%0.0
1-2FIU (202.0)CUSAH93-88W100%0.0
1-4Auburn (169.0)SECA81-50L0%0.0
1-11North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACH63-60W100%0.0
1-13North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACH76-66W100%0.0
1-18South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACA72-78W100%0.0
1-20Savannah St. (273.0)MEACA79-68L0%0.0
1-25Howard (323.0)MEACH62-69L0%0.0
2-1South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH59-63L0%0.0
2-3Savannah St. (273.0)MEACH54-51W100%0.0
2-8North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACA84-78L0%0.0
2-10North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACA92-49L0%0.0
2-15Coppin St. (261.0)MEACH82-71W100%0.0
2-17Delaware St. (329.0)MEACH68-63W100%0.0
2-22Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACA75-80W100%0.0
3-3Morgan St. (225.0)MEACA73-78W100%0.0
3-6Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACH68-70L0%0.0
3-11Delaware St. (329.0)MEACN65-61W100%0.0
3-13Morgan St. (225.0)MEACN81-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida A&MMEAC26.2226.2242.6242.62-3.87-3.87
North Carolina CentralMEAC4.114.1186.2186.212.982.98
Bethune CookmanMEAC4.084.0814.2914.29-2.92-2.92
South Carolina St.MEAC4.054.0523.0823.08-2.18-2.18
Savannah St.MEAC4.034.0335.7135.71-1.15-1.15
North Carolina A&TMEAC4.004.0024.1424.14-2.07-2.07
Morgan St.MEAC3.973.9748.2848.28-0.14-0.14
Delaware St.MEAC3.883.8826.9226.92-1.79-1.79
Coppin St.MEAC2.422.4236.6736.67-0.64-0.64
HowardMEAC2.362.3616.6716.67-1.57-1.57
Norfolk St.MEAC2.332.3351.7251.720.080.08
HamptonMEAC2.302.3058.6258.620.400.40
StetsonASun1.921.9223.3323.33-1.02-1.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.891.8961.2961.290.430.43
South FloridaAmer1.881.8835.4835.48-0.55-0.55
JacksonvilleASun1.831.8333.3333.33-0.61-0.61
RutgersAmer1.801.8032.2632.26-0.64-0.64
FIUCUSA1.801.8048.1548.15-0.07-0.07
Mississippi St.SEC1.771.7740.6240.62-0.33-0.33
UABCUSA1.721.7253.5753.570.120.12
AuburnSEC1.721.7244.8344.83-0.18-0.18
ToledoMAC1.691.6980.6580.651.041.04
PrincetonIvy1.691.6969.2369.230.650.65
Sacred HeartNEC1.671.6716.6716.67-1.11-1.11
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.720.7217.8617.86-0.46-0.46
North FloridaASun0.330.3346.6746.67-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.240.2437.9337.93-0.06-0.06
MercerASun0.220.2274.1974.190.110.11
NJITind0.220.2236.0036.00-0.06-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.220.2213.7913.79-0.16-0.16
South CarolinaSEC0.200.2041.1841.18-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.190.1930.0030.00-0.08-0.08
East Tennessee St.ASun0.190.1953.1253.120.010.01
ClemsonACC0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
FloridaSEC0.170.1794.1294.120.150.15
LipscombASun0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.160.1685.2985.290.110.11
CincinnatiAmer0.160.1681.8281.820.100.10
MississippiSEC0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
RadfordBSth0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
DetroitHorz0.130.1336.6736.67-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
YaleIvy0.110.1151.8551.850.000.00
NebraskaB100.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
CampbellBSth0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
AkronMAC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
WagnerNEC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1076.4776.470.060.06
MemphisAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
SMUAmer0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
RiceCUSA0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
BrownIvy0.090.0951.8551.850.000.00
HarvardIvy0.090.0986.2186.210.060.06
DelawareCAA0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
MichiganB100.090.0975.7675.760.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.090.0964.2964.290.020.02
George WashingtonA100.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
LibertyBSth0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0980.6580.650.050.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0870.9770.970.040.04
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
LSUSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
TowsonCAA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
CornellIvy0.060.063.703.70-0.06-0.06
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Wright St.Horz0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00