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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Florida A&M

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:350.0
Current RPI:350
Expected SOS:344
Current SOS:344
Current Record:2-27
Expected Record:2-27
Current Conf Record:2-14
Expected Conf Record:2-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-18
Current OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC RPI:350
Expected OOC SOS:291



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
2-27350.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Clemson (106.0)ACCA86-41L0%0.0
11-15USC Upstate (208.0)ASunA78-65L0%0.0
11-19San Diego (157.0)WCCA72-41L0%0.0
11-21Grand Canyon (274.0)WACA64-49L0%0.0
11-24Wyoming (71.0)MWCA66-45L0%0.0
11-26New Mexico St. (103.0)WACA78-33L0%0.0
11-29Stetson (335.0)ASunN62-50L0%0.0
11-30Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyA95-56L0%0.0
12-6South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACA70-61L0%0.0
12-19North Florida (162.0)ASunH65-83L0%0.0
12-22East Carolina (219.0)AmerA75-57L0%0.0
12-29FIU (217.0)CUSAH55-76L0%0.0
1-3Stetson (335.0)ASunA65-60L0%0.0
1-6Jacksonville (338.0)ASunH56-79L0%0.0
1-10Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACH51-75L0%0.0
1-12Hampton (251.0)MEACH63-78L0%0.0
1-17Morgan St. (337.0)MEACA75-65L0%0.0
1-19Coppin St. (311.0)MEACA87-75L0%0.0
1-24Howard (255.0)MEACH50-59L0%0.0
1-26Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACH65-72L0%0.0
1-31Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACH44-61L0%0.0
2-2North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACA85-43L0%0.0
2-9Delaware St. (204.0)MEACA90-74L0%0.0
2-14North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH57-50W100%0.0
2-16North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACH48-73L0%0.0
2-21Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACA64-57L0%0.0
2-23Savannah St. (331.0)MEACA63-52L0%0.0
2-28North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACA77-65L0%0.0
3-5Savannah St. (331.0)MEACH64-57W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida A&MMEAC26.1326.134.804.80-23.62-23.62
Bethune CookmanMEAC4.174.1725.0025.00-2.08-2.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC4.114.1121.4321.43-2.35-2.35
North Carolina CentralMEAC4.074.0774.0774.071.961.96
Savannah St.MEAC4.014.0122.2222.22-2.23-2.23
StetsonASun3.823.8215.3815.38-2.64-2.64
Delaware St.MEAC2.442.4446.8846.88-0.15-0.15
South Carolina St.MEAC2.412.4126.6726.67-1.12-1.12
HamptonMEAC2.402.4046.8846.88-0.15-0.15
Coppin St.MEAC2.382.3820.6920.69-1.39-1.39
Norfolk St.MEAC2.322.3256.6756.670.310.31
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.292.2954.8454.840.220.22
Morgan St.MEAC2.292.2920.0020.00-1.37-1.37
HowardMEAC2.292.2942.8642.86-0.33-0.33
USC UpstateASun2.162.1662.0762.070.520.52
North FloridaASun2.112.1163.3363.330.560.56
JacksonvilleASun2.022.0221.4321.43-1.15-1.15
New Mexico St.WAC1.901.9066.6766.670.630.63
WyomingMWC1.841.8470.9770.970.770.77
Northern ColoradoBSky1.841.8444.4444.44-0.20-0.20
Grand CanyonWAC1.841.8450.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA1.811.8143.3343.33-0.24-0.24
ClemsonACC1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
East CarolinaAmer1.721.7236.6736.67-0.46-0.46
San DiegoWCC1.721.7244.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.380.3865.5265.520.120.12
Northern KentuckyASun0.350.3539.2939.29-0.08-0.08
Kennesaw St.ASun0.350.3526.6726.67-0.16-0.16
LipscombASun0.320.3239.2939.29-0.07-0.07
UCFAmer0.230.2337.9337.93-0.06-0.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.200.2036.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.170.1725.9325.93-0.08-0.08
Florida St.ACC0.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
WinthropBSth0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
MemphisAmer0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
UMKCWAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.120.1267.8667.860.040.04
Miami FLACC0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1218.7518.75-0.07-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1260.7160.710.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1217.2417.24-0.08-0.08
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
MarshallCUSA0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.120.1268.5768.570.040.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
HoustonAmer0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
NJITind0.110.1156.0056.000.010.01
IPFWSum0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
IUPUISum0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
LSUSEC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
TulaneAmer0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
HofstraCAA0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0916.1316.13-0.06-0.06
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
VirginiaACC0.080.0890.6290.620.070.07
Boise St.MWC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
SMUAmer0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
DavidsonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
MontanaBSky0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
CreightonBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Kansas St.B120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.060.0693.9493.940.050.05
Kent St.MAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
PacificWCC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
DuquesneA100.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
ElonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0690.9190.910.050.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
TulsaAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
UABCUSA0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01