Florida A&M

Conference:	MEAC
Expected RPI:	329.2
Current RPI:	333
Expected SOS:	329
Current SOS:	330
Current Record:	4-17
Expected Record:	6-22
Current Conf Record:	4-5
Expected Conf Record:	6-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.13%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-13
Current OOC Record:	0-12
Expected OOC Record:	0-12
Expected OOC RPI:	340
Expected OOC SOS:	251

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-17	284.0	0.01%
10-18	296.8	0.21%
9-19	307.5	2.45%
8-20	316.8	11.61%
7-21	325.3	26.24%
6-22	331.9	32.48%
5-23	336.6	21.26%
4-24	339.8	5.73%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Georgia Tech (164.1)	ACC	A	92-59	L	0%	0.0
11-14	Stetson (255.4)	ASun	H	60-78	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Providence (146.8)	BE	A	87-65	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Rice (177.4)	CUSA	A	75-59	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Southern (294.1)	SWAC	N	64-61	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Western Carolina (259.9)	SC	N	46-62	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Bethune Cookman (260.5)	MEAC	A	74-59	L	0%	0.0
12-11	South Florida (96.1)	BE	A	83-59	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Akron (49.0)	MAC	A	91-69	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Auburn (147.6)	SEC	A	76-69	L	0%	0.0
12-21	North Florida (183.0)	ASun	H	63-90	L	0%	0.0
1-1	Princeton (117.6)	Ivy	H	61-76	L	0%	0.0
1-4	Ball St. (222.5)	MAC	A	70-55	L	0%	0.0
1-7	North Carolina Central (240.5)	MEAC	A	60-62	W	100%	0.0
1-9	North Carolina A&T (266.3)	MEAC	A	85-82	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Savannah St. (214.3)	MEAC	H	58-69	L	0%	0.0
1-16	South Carolina St. (337.8)	MEAC	H	86-69	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Maryland Eastern Shore (319.1)	MEAC	A	63-68	W	100%	0.0
1-23	Delaware St. (279.9)	MEAC	A	65-51	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Bethune Cookman (260.5)	MEAC	H	68-62	W	100%	0.0
2-4	North Carolina Central (240.5)	MEAC	H	61-78	L	0%	0.0
2-6	North Carolina A&T (266.3)	MEAC	H	0-0		44%	-1.8
2-11	Howard (313.9)	MEAC	A	0-0		34%	-4.5
2-18	Savannah St. (214.3)	MEAC	A	0-0		9%	-14.8
2-20	South Carolina St. (337.8)	MEAC	A	0-0		48%	-0.5
2-25	Hampton (307.2)	MEAC	H	0-0		43%	-2.0
2-27	Norfolk St. (131.7)	MEAC	H	0-0		20%	-9.1
3-1	Morgan St. (264.2)	MEAC	H	0-0		29%	-6.1

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Florida A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Florida A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Florida A&M	MEAC	26.45	26.20	21.05	23.36	-15.31	-13.96
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	5.41	4.34	36.84	42.25	-1.42	-0.67
Savannah St.	MEAC	2.77	4.33	50.00	55.06	0.00	0.44
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	2.92	4.27	30.00	34.10	-1.17	-1.36
South Carolina St.	MEAC	2.61	4.24	10.53	14.08	-2.06	-3.05
North Carolina Central	MEAC	5.06	4.23	37.50	43.42	-1.27	-0.56
Delaware St.	MEAC	2.85	2.39	31.25	37.44	-1.07	-0.60
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	2.88	2.36	21.05	20.70	-1.67	-1.38
Howard	MEAC	0.43	2.36	18.18	20.60	-0.28	-1.39
Hampton	MEAC	0.12	2.33	36.36	37.83	-0.03	-0.57
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.31	2.33	25.00	36.33	-0.15	-0.64
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.25	2.32	68.18	69.31	0.09	0.90
North Florida	ASun	2.71	2.00	43.48	44.84	-0.35	-0.21
Stetson	ASun	2.65	1.97	28.57	28.76	-1.14	-0.84
Auburn	SEC	2.60	1.91	54.55	47.05	0.24	-0.11
Georgia Tech	ACC	2.51	1.88	36.36	40.13	-0.68	-0.37
Akron	MAC	2.50	1.88	66.67	66.80	0.83	0.63
Providence	BE	2.49	1.88	54.55	48.61	0.23	-0.05
South Florida	BE	2.48	1.87	52.38	46.83	0.12	-0.12
Rice	CUSA	2.50	1.85	45.00	44.48	-0.25	-0.20
Southern	SWAC	2.49	1.85	42.11	44.14	-0.39	-0.22
Ball St.	MAC	2.44	1.82	52.63	55.84	0.13	0.21
Princeton	Ivy	2.38	1.79	44.44	51.12	-0.26	0.04
Western Carolina	SC	2.38	1.79	31.82	35.00	-0.87	-0.54
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.31	0.67	42.11	49.81	-0.05	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.27	0.25	17.39	22.00	-0.18	-0.14
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.37	0.23	70.83	64.42	0.15	0.06
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.18	0.22	34.78	38.77	-0.05	-0.05
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.27	0.22	8.70	11.67	-0.22	-0.17
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.19	75.00	75.78	0.06	0.10
Central Florida	CUSA	0.22	0.19	71.43	66.60	0.10	0.06
Longwood	ind	0.06	0.19	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.08
Ohio	MAC	0.17	0.19	81.82	77.20	0.11	0.10
Georgetown	BE	0.16	0.18	80.95	77.38	0.10	0.10
Hawaii	WAC	0.17	0.16	57.14	53.12	0.02	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.28	0.16	61.90	58.59	0.07	0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.17	0.16	18.18	21.13	-0.11	-0.09
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.17	0.16	25.00	28.52	-0.09	-0.07
South Carolina	SEC	0.21	0.15	40.91	39.56	-0.04	-0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.21	0.15	70.83	71.64	0.09	0.07
Pittsburgh	BE	0.11	0.15	60.87	58.16	0.02	0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.26	0.13	82.61	84.57	0.17	0.09
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.20	0.13	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.19	0.13	35.00	40.78	-0.06	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.13	0.13	47.83	43.66	-0.01	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.13	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.17	0.13	43.48	43.31	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.17	0.13	81.82	76.80	0.11	0.07
Baylor	B12	0.17	0.13	90.91	83.85	0.14	0.08
NC Greensboro	SC	0.16	0.13	34.78	33.46	-0.05	-0.04
St. Mary's	WCC	0.17	0.13	90.91	87.74	0.14	0.09
Toledo	MAC	0.11	0.12	38.10	40.81	-0.03	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.17	0.12	17.39	24.41	-0.11	-0.06
Belmont	ASun	0.15	0.12	69.57	73.28	0.06	0.06
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.12	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.18	0.12	68.42	66.45	0.06	0.04
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.10	0.12	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.10	0.12	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.22	0.12	72.73	71.71	0.10	0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.15	0.12	43.48	43.82	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.12	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.16	0.12	27.27	35.02	-0.07	-0.04
Kent St.	MAC	0.11	0.12	71.43	69.05	0.05	0.05
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.12	69.57	65.15	0.04	0.04
Rutgers	BE	0.17	0.12	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.11	0.12	79.17	75.98	0.06	0.06
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.12	68.18	69.10	0.04	0.05
East Carolina	CUSA	0.19	0.10	44.44	41.71	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.07	0.10	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.12	0.10	4.76	9.95	-0.11	-0.08
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.12	0.10	31.82	42.13	-0.04	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.12	0.09	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.17	0.09	45.45	41.20	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.09	17.65	27.10	-0.07	-0.04
American	Pat	0.06	0.09	65.22	63.79	0.02	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.09	28.57	34.20	-0.05	-0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.09	40.91	38.38	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.11	0.09	19.05	25.52	-0.07	-0.05
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.09	72.73	68.28	0.05	0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.09	5.26	7.30	-0.05	-0.08
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.09	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.12	0.09	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.11	0.09	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.12	0.09	65.22	62.65	0.04	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.11	0.09	27.27	23.80	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois St.	MVC	0.11	0.09	62.50	62.06	0.03	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.16	0.09	73.91	68.43	0.08	0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.16	0.09	62.50	61.50	0.04	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.09	82.61	77.63	0.07	0.05
Miami OH	MAC	0.11	0.09	30.00	34.15	-0.05	-0.03
Georgia Southern	SC	0.16	0.09	40.00	41.30	-0.03	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.09	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.10	0.09	59.09	57.28	0.02	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.11	0.09	78.26	72.34	0.06	0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.16	0.09	80.00	78.06	0.10	0.05
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.09	30.43	26.44	-0.04	-0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.16	0.09	65.22	63.74	0.05	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.09	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.09	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.10	0.09	95.83	92.01	0.09	0.07
Charlotte	A10	0.13	0.07	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.13	0.07	69.57	64.53	0.05	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.13	0.07	47.06	50.75	-0.01	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.13	0.07	34.78	32.08	-0.04	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	23.02	-0.04	-0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.11	0.06	55.00	60.33	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.06	36.84	41.45	-0.02	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.06	0.06	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.05
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.00	0.06	14.29	17.17	-0.00	-0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.06	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.12	0.06	15.00	15.73	-0.08	-0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.00	0.06	90.48	87.91	0.00	0.05
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.12	0.06	34.78	35.50	-0.04	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.06	0.06	54.55	56.84	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.06	0.06	37.50	38.52	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.06	38.10	37.86	-0.01	-0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.12	0.06	52.38	46.15	0.01	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.06	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	72.22	63.19	0.03	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	79.17	78.10	0.04	0.04
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	9.52	13.19	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.11	0.06	30.00	31.54	-0.04	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.00	0.06	56.52	55.95	0.00	0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.06	0.06	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.06	40.00	40.18	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.06	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.00	0.06	27.27	27.21	-0.00	-0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.11	0.06	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.06	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.06	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.11	0.06	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	26.32	29.71	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.06	85.71	82.18	0.04	0.04
William & Mary	CAA	0.00	0.06	12.50	13.44	-0.00	-0.05
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.06	35.00	39.29	-0.02	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.06	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.06	26.09	28.60	-0.03	-0.03
Samford	SC	0.05	0.06	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.11	0.06	69.57	68.29	0.04	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.11	0.06	60.87	59.76	0.02	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	75.00	73.97	0.03	0.03
Wofford	SC	0.10	0.06	59.09	57.93	0.02	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.11	0.06	81.82	80.43	0.07	0.04
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.06	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.06	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.10	0.06	65.00	60.02	0.03	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.06	63.64	56.71	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.00	0.06	69.57	65.47	0.00	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.06	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.06	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.06	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.11	0.06	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.03	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.06	0.03	73.91	75.00	0.03	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.00	0.03	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.03	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.06	0.03	43.48	42.95	-0.01	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.03	73.91	74.91	0.03	0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.03	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.00	0.03	59.09	57.76	0.00	0.00
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.00	0.03	13.64	16.35	-0.00	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.03	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.00	0.03	100.00	94.55	0.00	0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.00	0.03	82.61	81.44	0.00	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.03	69.57	68.90	0.02	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.00	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.00	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.03	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.00	0.03	56.52	53.77	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.03	27.78	29.58	-0.03	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.00	0.03	25.00	25.13	-0.00	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.00	0.03	34.78	32.06	-0.00	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.06	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.03	4.35	9.66	-0.05	-0.03
Texas	B12	0.06	0.03	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.03	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.03	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.00	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.00	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.00	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.00	0.03	70.83	71.05	0.00	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.03	65.22	60.58	0.02	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.00	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.00	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.03	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.00	0.03	31.82	32.75	-0.00	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.05	0.03
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.03	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.43	-0.02	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.04	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.03	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.03	86.96	85.46	0.04	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.00	0.03	80.77	80.75	0.00	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.03	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.00	0.03	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.00	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.00	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.00	0.03	44.00	45.89	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.00	0.03	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.61	0.02	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.03	60.00	62.49	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.33	10.86	-0.04	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.03	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.70	12.13	-0.04	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.05	-0.01	-0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.03	35.00	38.58	-0.02	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.03	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.02