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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Florida A&M

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:329.2
Current RPI:333
Expected SOS:329
Current SOS:330
Current Record:4-17
Expected Record:6-22
Current Conf Record:4-5
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.13%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-13
Current OOC Record:0-12
Expected OOC Record:0-12
Expected OOC RPI:340
Expected OOC SOS:251



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-17284.00.01%
10-18296.80.21%
9-19307.52.45%
8-20316.811.61%
7-21325.326.24%
6-22331.932.48%
5-23336.621.26%
4-24339.85.73%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Georgia Tech (164.1)ACCA92-59L0%0.0
11-14Stetson (255.4)ASunH60-78L0%0.0
11-19Providence (146.8)BEA87-65L0%0.0
11-22Rice (177.4)CUSAA75-59L0%0.0
11-25Southern (294.1)SWACN64-61L0%0.0
11-26Western Carolina (259.9)SCN46-62L0%0.0
12-3Bethune Cookman (260.5)MEACA74-59L0%0.0
12-11South Florida (96.1)BEA83-59L0%0.0
12-17Akron (49.0)MACA91-69L0%0.0
12-19Auburn (147.6)SECA76-69L0%0.0
12-21North Florida (183.0)ASunH63-90L0%0.0
1-1Princeton (117.6)IvyH61-76L0%0.0
1-4Ball St. (222.5)MACA70-55L0%0.0
1-7North Carolina Central (240.5)MEACA60-62W100%0.0
1-9North Carolina A&T (266.3)MEACA85-82L0%0.0
1-14Savannah St. (214.3)MEACH58-69L0%0.0
1-16South Carolina St. (337.8)MEACH86-69W100%0.0
1-21Maryland Eastern Shore (319.1)MEACA63-68W100%0.0
1-23Delaware St. (279.9)MEACA65-51L0%0.0
1-28Bethune Cookman (260.5)MEACH68-62W100%0.0
2-4North Carolina Central (240.5)MEACH61-78L0%0.0
2-6North Carolina A&T (266.3)MEACH0-044%-1.8
2-11Howard (313.9)MEACA0-034%-4.5
2-18Savannah St. (214.3)MEACA0-09%-14.8
2-20South Carolina St. (337.8)MEACA0-048%-0.5
2-25Hampton (307.2)MEACH0-043%-2.0
2-27Norfolk St. (131.7)MEACH0-020%-9.1
3-1Morgan St. (264.2)MEACH0-029%-6.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida A&MMEAC26.4526.2021.0523.36-15.31-13.96
Bethune CookmanMEAC5.414.3436.8442.25-1.42-0.67
Savannah St.MEAC2.774.3350.0055.060.000.44
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.924.2730.0034.10-1.17-1.36
South Carolina St.MEAC2.614.2410.5314.08-2.06-3.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC5.064.2337.5043.42-1.27-0.56
Delaware St.MEAC2.852.3931.2537.44-1.07-0.60
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.882.3621.0520.70-1.67-1.38
HowardMEAC0.432.3618.1820.60-0.28-1.39
HamptonMEAC0.122.3336.3637.83-0.03-0.57
Morgan St.MEAC0.312.3325.0036.33-0.15-0.64
Norfolk St.MEAC0.252.3268.1869.310.090.90
North FloridaASun2.712.0043.4844.84-0.35-0.21
StetsonASun2.651.9728.5728.76-1.14-0.84
AuburnSEC2.601.9154.5547.050.24-0.11
Georgia TechACC2.511.8836.3640.13-0.68-0.37
AkronMAC2.501.8866.6766.800.830.63
ProvidenceBE2.491.8854.5548.610.23-0.05
South FloridaBE2.481.8752.3846.830.12-0.12
RiceCUSA2.501.8545.0044.48-0.25-0.20
SouthernSWAC2.491.8542.1144.14-0.39-0.22
Ball St.MAC2.441.8252.6355.840.130.21
PrincetonIvy2.381.7944.4451.12-0.260.04
Western CarolinaSC2.381.7931.8235.00-0.87-0.54
Coppin St.MEAC0.310.6742.1149.81-0.05-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.270.2517.3922.00-0.18-0.14
North Carolina St.ACC0.370.2370.8364.420.150.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.180.2234.7838.77-0.05-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.270.228.7011.67-0.22-0.17
IndianaB100.110.1975.0075.780.060.10
Central FloridaCUSA0.220.1971.4366.600.100.06
Longwoodind0.060.1930.0027.84-0.02-0.08
OhioMAC0.170.1981.8277.200.110.10
GeorgetownBE0.160.1880.9577.380.100.10
HawaiiWAC0.170.1657.1453.120.020.01
TulaneCUSA0.280.1661.9058.590.070.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.170.1618.1821.13-0.11-0.09
Houston BaptistGWC0.170.1625.0028.52-0.09-0.07
South CarolinaSEC0.210.1540.9139.56-0.04-0.03
MercerASun0.210.1570.8371.640.090.07
PittsburghBE0.110.1560.8758.160.020.02
WagnerNEC0.260.1382.6184.570.170.09
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.200.1350.0051.730.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.190.1335.0040.78-0.06-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.130.1347.8343.66-0.01-0.02
HoustonCUSA0.060.1347.6244.63-0.00-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.170.1343.4843.31-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.170.1381.8276.800.110.07
BaylorB120.170.1390.9183.850.140.08
NC GreensboroSC0.160.1334.7833.46-0.05-0.04
St. Mary'sWCC0.170.1390.9187.740.140.09
ToledoMAC0.110.1238.1040.81-0.03-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.170.1217.3924.41-0.11-0.06
BelmontASun0.150.1269.5773.280.060.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.1247.6248.82-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.180.1268.4266.450.060.04
East Tennessee St.ASun0.100.1252.3852.860.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1250.0048.900.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.220.1272.7371.710.100.05
LipscombASun0.150.1243.4843.82-0.02-0.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.100.1254.5556.090.010.02
ChattanoogaSC0.160.1227.2735.02-0.07-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.110.1271.4369.050.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.110.1269.5765.150.040.04
RutgersBE0.170.1250.0046.810.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.110.1279.1775.980.060.06
AlabamaSEC0.100.1268.1869.100.040.05
East CarolinaCUSA0.190.1044.4441.71-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.070.1047.8350.65-0.000.00
Chicago St.GWC0.120.104.769.95-0.11-0.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1031.8242.13-0.04-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.120.0945.4546.99-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.170.0945.4541.20-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.0917.6527.10-0.07-0.04
AmericanPat0.060.0965.2263.790.020.03
Central MichiganMAC0.110.0928.5734.20-0.05-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.0940.9138.38-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.0919.0525.52-0.07-0.05
Kansas St.B120.110.0972.7368.280.050.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.095.267.30-0.05-0.08
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0940.9142.96-0.01-0.01
ButlerHorz0.120.0950.0050.800.000.00
ElonSC0.110.0950.0047.590.00-0.00
Notre DameBE0.120.0965.2262.650.040.02
BrownIvy0.110.0927.2723.80-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.110.0962.5062.060.030.02
Iowa St.B120.160.0973.9168.430.080.03
Northern IowaMVC0.160.0962.5061.500.040.02
FloridaSEC0.100.0982.6177.630.070.05
Miami OHMAC0.110.0930.0034.15-0.05-0.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.160.0940.0041.30-0.03-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0956.5255.200.010.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.100.0959.0957.280.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.0978.2672.340.060.04
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.160.0980.0078.060.100.05
Boston CollegeACC0.100.0930.4326.44-0.04-0.04
Seton HallBE0.160.0965.2263.740.050.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0945.4546.08-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaBE0.050.0965.2265.170.020.03
SyracuseBE0.100.0995.8392.010.090.07
CharlotteA100.130.0750.0049.450.00-0.00
OregonP120.130.0769.5764.530.050.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.130.0747.0650.75-0.010.00
George WashingtonA100.130.0734.7832.08-0.04-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0756.5253.100.010.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0630.0037.30-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0616.6723.02-0.04-0.03
CampbellBSth0.060.0656.0055.650.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.0655.0060.330.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0655.0054.800.010.01
CornellIvy0.060.0636.8441.45-0.02-0.01
CreightonMVC0.060.0687.5085.410.040.05
DartmouthIvy0.000.0614.2917.17-0.00-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0645.4544.02-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.CAA0.060.0666.6769.690.020.03
GramblingSWAC0.120.0615.0015.73-0.08-0.04
HarvardIvy0.000.0690.4887.910.000.05
IowaB100.060.0654.1749.440.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.120.0634.7835.50-0.04-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0650.0058.160.000.01
OklahomaB120.060.0659.0954.700.010.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.060.0654.5556.840.010.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0637.5038.52-0.02-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.060.0638.1037.86-0.01-0.02
Texas A&MB120.120.0652.3846.150.01-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.060.0660.8759.050.010.01
YaleIvy0.060.0672.2263.190.030.02
DrexelCAA0.060.0679.1778.100.040.04
NavyPat0.060.069.5213.19-0.05-0.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.0630.0031.54-0.04-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0656.5255.950.000.01
Texas ChristianMWC0.060.0657.1449.540.01-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0640.0040.18-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0678.2678.390.030.04
LibertyBSth0.000.0627.2727.21-0.00-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.110.0659.0959.720.020.01
Old DominionCAA0.050.0660.0058.290.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0662.5062.490.010.02
SienaMAAC0.110.0645.4545.55-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0626.3229.71-0.03-0.03
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0685.7182.180.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0612.5013.44-0.00-0.05
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0635.0039.29-0.02-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0647.6248.83-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0626.0928.60-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.050.0633.3335.26-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.110.0669.5768.290.040.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.0660.8759.760.020.01
WisconsinB100.060.0675.0073.970.030.03
WoffordSC0.100.0659.0957.930.020.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0650.0048.360.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.0681.8280.430.070.04
FordhamA100.050.0640.9134.50-0.01-0.02
MarylandACC0.050.0659.0950.820.010.00
Miami FLACC0.100.0665.0060.020.030.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0663.6456.710.010.01
CincinnatiBE0.000.0669.5765.470.000.02
ConnecticutBE0.050.0668.1863.990.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0650.0042.830.00-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.050.0678.2672.660.030.03
St. John'sBE0.110.0643.4840.28-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.060.0366.6768.550.020.01
BucknellPat0.060.0373.9175.000.030.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0350.0056.760.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0356.5254.220.010.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0334.7838.42-0.02-0.01
LafayettePat0.060.0343.4842.95-0.01-0.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0361.9067.230.010.01
LehighPat0.060.0373.9174.910.030.02
Louisiana TechWAC0.060.0342.8643.45-0.01-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0359.0957.760.000.00
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.000.0313.6416.35-0.00-0.02
MemphisCUSA0.060.0369.5771.510.020.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.03100.0094.550.000.03
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.000.0382.6181.440.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0369.5768.900.020.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0347.8348.56-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0363.6463.160.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.060.0342.8645.80-0.01-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0356.5253.770.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0327.7829.58-0.03-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.000.0325.0025.13-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0334.7832.06-0.00-0.01
TempleA100.060.0377.2775.060.030.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.034.359.66-0.05-0.03
TexasB120.060.0360.8761.370.010.01
UABCUSA0.060.0340.9139.82-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0376.1970.730.030.01
XavierA100.000.0365.2263.740.000.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0324.0024.86-0.03-0.02
College of CharlestonSC0.000.0358.3359.980.000.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0376.1976.760.030.02
Long IslandNEC0.000.0370.8371.050.000.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0368.1867.640.020.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0340.9143.66-0.01-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0365.2260.580.020.01
The CitadelSC0.000.039.5211.44-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0347.8349.03-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.050.0386.3683.090.040.02
DuquesneA100.050.0359.0956.350.010.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0336.3639.72-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0331.8232.75-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0395.8392.570.050.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0371.4373.350.020.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0334.7833.43-0.02-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0341.1842.61-0.01-0.00
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0383.3384.760.040.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0325.0023.75-0.03-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0386.9683.160.040.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0361.9055.140.010.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0386.9685.460.040.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0380.7780.750.000.02
Penn St.B100.050.0341.6738.67-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.490.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0368.0070.030.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0344.0045.89-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0345.4544.66-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.000.0354.5557.690.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0365.2263.610.020.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0369.5765.870.020.01
VermontAE0.050.0360.0062.490.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0341.6740.61-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0350.0051.530.000.00
BryantNEC0.050.038.3310.86-0.04-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.5554.300.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.038.7012.13-0.04-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0340.9142.05-0.01-0.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0335.0038.58-0.02-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0320.8320.60-0.03-0.02