live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 19, 2014.


Florida A&M

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:349.1
Current RPI:350
Expected SOS:343
Current SOS:332
Current Record:0-10
Expected Record:3-26
Current Conf Record:0-1
Expected Conf Record:3-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-15
Current OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:349
Expected OOC SOS:284



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-19319.00.02%
9-20327.90.14%
8-21335.20.66%
7-22341.12.80%
6-23345.07.24%
5-24347.914.52%
4-25349.421.78%
3-26350.225.06%
2-27350.718.10%
1-28350.97.94%
0-29351.01.73%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Clemson (170.0)ACCA86-41L0%0.0
11-15USC Upstate (174.6)ASunA78-65L0%0.0
11-19San Diego (88.9)WCCA72-41L0%0.0
11-21Grand Canyon (288.9)WACA64-49L0%0.0
11-24Wyoming (70.7)MWCA66-45L0%0.0
11-26New Mexico St. (115.4)WACA78-33L0%0.0
11-29Stetson (314.4)ASunN62-50L0%0.0
11-30Northern Colorado (181.2)BSkyA95-56L0%0.0
12-6South Carolina St. (307.1)MEACA70-61L0%0.0
12-19North Florida (155.5)ASunH65-83L0%0.0
12-22East Carolina (220.1)AmerA0-03%-21.5
12-29FIU (157.2)CUSAH0-09%-16.0
1-3Stetson (314.4)ASunA0-010%-15.3
1-6Jacksonville (336.9)ASunH0-045%-1.5
1-10Norfolk St. (161.8)MEACH0-09%-15.5
1-12Hampton (244.4)MEACH0-016%-11.5
1-17Morgan St. (302.2)MEACA0-08%-16.7
1-19Coppin St. (333.3)MEACA0-026%-7.5
1-24Howard (277.7)MEACH0-022%-9.2
1-26Maryland Eastern Shore (259.2)MEACH0-021%-9.3
1-31Bethune Cookman (337.1)MEACH0-037%-3.7
2-2North Carolina Central (151.2)MEACA0-01%-26.9
2-9Delaware St. (247.5)MEACA0-07%-17.6
2-14North Carolina A&T (332.2)MEACH0-037%-3.9
2-16North Carolina Central (151.2)MEACH0-06%-18.2
2-21Bethune Cookman (337.1)MEACA0-014%-12.5
2-23Savannah St. (321.0)MEACA0-018%-10.5
2-28North Carolina A&T (332.2)MEACA0-014%-12.6
3-5Savannah St. (321.0)MEACH0-044%-1.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida A&MMEAC27.5726.190.0011.40-27.57-20.22
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.734.1818.1828.57-0.46-1.79
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.504.120.0020.63-0.50-2.42
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.004.0544.4467.63-0.001.43
Savannah St.MEAC0.004.0318.1824.63-0.00-2.04
StetsonASun5.863.820.0021.70-5.86-2.16
South Carolina St.MEAC5.002.3511.1127.21-3.89-1.07
HamptonMEAC0.002.3345.4549.64-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.002.3038.4643.17-0.00-0.31
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.3040.0044.99-0.00-0.23
Norfolk St.MEAC0.002.3054.5557.990.000.37
Morgan St.MEAC0.002.3018.1834.06-0.00-0.73
Coppin St.MEAC0.002.300.0012.48-0.00-1.72
HowardMEAC0.002.2930.0042.19-0.00-0.36
USC UpstateASun5.002.1555.5663.440.560.58
JacksonvilleASun0.002.0410.0016.85-0.00-1.35
North FloridaASun5.002.0444.4455.62-0.560.23
New Mexico St.WAC5.881.9130.0063.92-2.350.53
WyomingMWC5.831.8575.0072.592.920.84
Northern ColoradoBSky5.761.8516.6755.49-3.840.20
Grand CanyonWAC5.001.8430.0042.83-2.00-0.26
FIUCUSA0.501.8244.4449.40-0.06-0.02
ClemsonACC5.001.7255.5642.190.56-0.27
East CarolinaAmer0.001.7237.5036.35-0.00-0.47
San DiegoWCC5.001.7250.0056.130.000.21
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.3733.3343.01-0.00-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.3477.7869.590.000.13
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.3436.3633.52-0.00-0.11
LipscombASun0.000.3122.2238.12-0.00-0.07
UCFAmer0.500.2155.5634.700.06-0.07
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1936.3647.56-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.250.1850.0052.110.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.189.0929.87-0.00-0.07
MemphisAmer0.250.1655.5660.240.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.510.1522.2228.76-0.28-0.07
Florida St.ACC0.250.1550.0038.230.00-0.04
WinthropBSth0.250.1525.0044.57-0.13-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.1522.2242.00-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.230.1570.0058.740.090.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.500.1366.6762.500.170.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1250.0068.680.000.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1255.5637.870.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1277.7868.980.000.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.1210.0018.50-0.00-0.08
North CarolinaACC0.000.1270.0072.100.000.05
Colorado St.MWC0.360.12100.0078.490.360.07
Miami FLACC0.000.1281.8266.320.000.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.1225.0038.65-0.00-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.12100.0085.970.000.09
South CarolinaSEC0.500.1266.6766.120.170.04
TowsonCAA0.000.1266.6751.280.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.120.0011.34-0.00-0.09
SeattleWAC0.000.1233.3343.77-0.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1233.3341.24-0.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1233.3340.82-0.00-0.02
NJITind0.000.1236.3641.21-0.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.230.1262.5057.080.060.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1290.0081.790.000.07
MarylandB100.250.1090.9167.370.200.03
IPFWSum0.250.0957.1456.380.040.01
IUPUISum0.000.0920.0027.11-0.00-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0916.6744.58-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.250.0950.0053.240.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0977.7878.860.000.05
IndianaB100.230.0980.0057.340.140.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0988.8955.090.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0928.5728.06-0.00-0.04
VirginiaACC0.250.09100.0085.760.250.06
LSUSEC0.250.0980.0064.030.150.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0950.0057.700.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0975.0057.990.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0955.5659.230.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0944.4444.86-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.250.0977.7851.830.140.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0922.2230.49-0.00-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0960.0063.510.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0930.0029.59-0.00-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.230.0970.0073.030.090.04
TempleAmer0.000.0963.6455.560.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.450.0960.0071.320.090.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0981.8264.670.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.0990.9172.430.000.04
HoustonAmer0.000.0971.4347.640.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.250.0911.1125.05-0.19-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0962.5067.130.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0955.5638.620.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.500.0657.1470.410.070.03
CreightonBE0.000.0675.0051.760.000.00
DavidsonA100.250.0687.5076.810.190.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0671.4364.140.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0633.3339.29-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0051.83-0.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0625.0032.93-0.00-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.0650.0041.650.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0642.8642.46-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0614.2929.35-0.00-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0650.0039.610.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0616.6719.31-0.00-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.250.0636.3638.89-0.07-0.01
ColoradoP120.630.0666.6757.620.210.01
Idaho St.BSky0.230.0612.5032.33-0.17-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.250.0660.0057.640.050.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3349.72-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0660.0037.150.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.250.0644.4449.69-0.03-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0637.5034.46-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.280.0645.4554.26-0.030.01
IllinoisB100.000.0672.7365.120.000.02
IowaB100.000.0672.7362.430.000.02
OregonP120.000.0666.6757.860.000.01
ElonCAA0.250.0637.5047.90-0.06-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.250.0637.5050.60-0.060.00
LibertyBSth0.250.0625.0035.06-0.13-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.250.0690.0078.440.200.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0660.0053.630.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0628.5737.33-0.00-0.02
BaylorB120.230.0690.0073.800.180.03
Boise St.MWC0.230.0675.0069.170.110.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3332.70-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6768.290.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.0690.0090.870.000.05
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6754.760.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0670.0060.840.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0675.0059.530.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0625.0023.09-0.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0644.4444.53-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0650.0047.740.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0644.4456.59-0.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0642.8636.96-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0690.0084.460.000.04
PacificWCC0.000.0650.0038.110.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0666.6748.270.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.230.0633.3340.96-0.08-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0660.0033.900.00-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.007.81-0.00-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0040.680.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.280.0670.0071.300.110.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0622.2240.60-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0015.18-0.00-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0611.1144.75-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0616.6730.30-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0056.900.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0630.0036.94-0.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0049.970.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0660.0052.190.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0655.5649.770.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.450.0662.5055.010.110.01
DuquesneA100.000.0628.5731.22-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.0610.0020.97-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.250.0677.7871.770.140.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6758.330.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0637.5046.89-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0642.8642.92-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0650.0038.520.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0637.5038.31-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.250.0350.0045.370.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0360.0075.470.000.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0337.5050.55-0.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.360.0344.4455.60-0.040.00
Texas TechB120.250.0390.0055.490.200.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0385.7161.910.000.01
WashingtonP120.250.03100.0071.400.250.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0328.5742.44-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.170.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6754.650.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0322.2230.55-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.170.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4363.270.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0377.7871.170.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0360.0064.140.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0355.5642.460.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.250.0360.0040.370.05-0.01
PurdueB100.250.0372.7363.770.110.01
RichmondA100.000.0355.5657.270.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3331.23-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0035.39-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0357.1456.650.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1461.580.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0028.56-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0064.750.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3342.54-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.230.0377.7870.500.130.01
CaliforniaP120.280.0390.9168.690.230.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0044.56-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.230.0385.7170.370.160.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.007.43-0.00-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.500.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0375.0077.200.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0050.810.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0385.7172.890.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.230.0318.1821.03-0.14-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.230.0375.0074.680.110.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6772.800.000.01
KentuckySEC0.230.03100.0095.110.230.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0333.3344.60-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0372.7367.410.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.230.0320.0046.54-0.14-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0355.5656.260.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8633.87-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.230.0344.4445.51-0.03-0.00
PennIvy0.000.0337.5033.00-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5073.430.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6726.71-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0336.3647.58-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.230.0344.4446.81-0.03-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0034.05-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0342.8626.94-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.230.0337.5064.18-0.060.01
UCLAP120.230.0372.7357.230.100.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0314.2945.11-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0322.2237.12-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0053.800.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.230.0355.5655.500.030.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0342.8637.71-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.310.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.230.0387.5085.540.170.02
XavierBE0.230.0380.0070.970.140.01
AuburnSEC0.250.0344.4435.91-0.03-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.760.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0320.0027.89-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.560.000.02
High PointBSth0.250.0362.5056.220.060.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0322.2237.84-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0360.0049.590.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0330.0031.32-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0390.9153.570.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6752.850.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0053.130.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0330.0039.58-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.250.0360.0034.920.05-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0340.0036.30-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0344.4448.82-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0320.0021.61-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0065.210.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0350.0062.120.000.01
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.450.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0081.870.000.02