live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Florida A&M

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:345.5
Current RPI:347
Expected SOS:344
Current SOS:329
Current Record:0-7
Expected Record:6-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-15
Current OOC Record:0-7
Expected OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC RPI:349
Expected OOC SOS:272



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-14301.50.02%
12-15307.80.23%
11-16320.50.93%
10-17329.82.47%
9-18336.26.72%
8-19341.412.23%
7-20345.018.01%
6-21347.420.65%
5-22348.918.60%
4-23349.811.92%
3-24350.45.65%
2-25350.62.18%
1-26350.90.37%
0-27351.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11South Florida (267.6)AmerA84-73L0%0.0
11-20Air Force (167.3)MWCA87-62L0%0.0
11-22East Carolina (174.1)AmerA82-62L0%0.0
11-25Georgia Southern (189.8)SBN72-83L0%0.0
11-26Stetson (319.1)ASunN90-98L0%0.0
11-30Kennesaw St. (309.0)ASunH74-76L0%0.0
12-3Southern (234.3)SWACH71-83L0%0.0
12-12Southeastern Louisiana (232.7)SlndA0-012%-14.3
12-17Jacksonville (204.9)ASunH0-019%-10.6
12-22Samford (166.0)SCA0-06%-19.1
12-23Wisconsin (22.2)B10A0-00%-38.7
1-4Howard (263.6)MEACA0-014%-12.8
1-7Coppin St. (343.7)MEACH0-068%5.7
1-10Morgan St. (329.9)MEACH0-045%-1.5
1-14Savannah St. (346.4)MEACA0-046%-1.1
1-16Bethune Cookman (339.3)MEACH0-054%1.3
1-23Maryland Eastern Shore (295.1)MEACH0-038%-3.7
1-28Delaware St. (285.3)MEACA0-022%-9.5
1-30Morgan St. (329.9)MEACA0-026%-7.8
2-4Howard (263.6)MEACH0-029%-6.5
2-6Delaware St. (285.3)MEACH0-040%-3.2
2-11North Carolina A&T (343.5)MEACA0-040%-3.1
2-13North Carolina Central (173.0)MEACA0-06%-19.1
2-18Norfolk St. (313.7)MEACH0-040%-2.9
2-20Hampton (315.2)MEACH0-038%-3.7
2-25South Carolina St. (307.5)MEACA0-034%-5.0
3-2Bethune Cookman (339.3)MEACA0-034%-5.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida A&MMEAC28.6026.140.0022.49-28.60-14.38
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.454.4314.2930.36-0.32-1.74
Delaware St.MEAC0.004.3012.5035.66-0.00-1.23
Morgan St.MEAC0.004.2914.2936.23-0.00-1.18
HowardMEAC0.004.2716.6741.84-0.00-0.70
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.402.640.0019.33-0.40-1.62
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.002.570.0033.45-0.00-0.85
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.402.5757.1470.640.061.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.002.550.0016.61-0.00-1.70
Savannah St.MEAC0.512.540.0017.30-0.51-1.66
Norfolk St.MEAC0.002.510.0035.07-0.00-0.75
South Carolina St.MEAC0.002.510.0025.62-0.00-1.23
HamptonMEAC0.402.5114.2941.92-0.28-0.41
JacksonvilleASun0.512.1557.1458.440.070.36
Kennesaw St.ASun7.652.1214.2927.64-5.47-0.95
StetsonASun8.052.1116.6725.58-5.37-1.03
East CarolinaAmer8.162.0875.0048.234.08-0.07
South FloridaAmer7.592.0150.0030.840.00-0.77
Air ForceMWC8.051.9550.0046.660.00-0.13
SamfordSC0.001.9262.5055.160.000.20
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.001.9242.8648.76-0.00-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB7.141.8933.3341.59-2.38-0.32
SouthernSWAC7.141.8825.0057.29-3.570.27
WisconsinB100.001.8577.7875.240.000.93
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.510.2657.1471.940.070.12
UCFAmer0.510.2685.7176.240.360.13
LipscombASun0.000.2012.5033.04-0.00-0.07
NJITASun0.000.2050.0049.780.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.2012.5034.79-0.00-0.06
USC UpstateASun0.000.2044.4441.30-0.00-0.03
IowaB100.450.1937.5037.74-0.11-0.05
MichiganB100.450.1975.0066.460.220.06
TulaneAmer0.000.1912.5023.93-0.00-0.10
South AlabamaSB0.000.1671.4357.970.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.400.1625.0031.41-0.20-0.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.1642.8637.34-0.00-0.04
MercerSC0.910.1642.8647.76-0.13-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.1685.7178.280.000.09
SMUAmer0.000.1666.6766.860.000.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1314.2943.58-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.510.1350.0048.810.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.1342.8639.20-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1325.0038.83-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.510.1375.0070.180.260.05
St. John'sBE0.000.1337.5037.03-0.00-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1350.0066.300.000.04
UMBCAE0.450.1380.0054.540.270.01
George WashingtonA100.510.1355.5641.690.06-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.1375.0055.500.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1371.4363.930.000.04
RutgersB100.000.1385.7145.370.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1387.5082.360.000.08
GeorgetownBE0.000.1355.5647.890.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1233.3339.61-0.00-0.03
IndianaB100.000.1287.5074.490.000.06
TempleAmer0.000.1275.0064.920.000.04
TulsaAmer0.000.1250.0038.050.00-0.03
FIUCUSA0.510.1014.2936.02-0.36-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.450.1012.5033.65-0.33-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1028.5741.52-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1016.6729.80-0.00-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1083.3379.850.000.06
FurmanSC0.000.1033.3356.24-0.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1033.3352.11-0.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1060.0069.120.000.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1028.5723.12-0.00-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.000.1037.5031.23-0.00-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1071.4360.540.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.1014.2931.35-0.00-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.450.1071.4373.040.190.04
The CitadelSC0.510.1050.0030.350.00-0.04
Penn St.B100.000.1066.6746.420.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1014.2931.28-0.00-0.04
AkronMAC1.020.1071.4368.980.440.04
DelawareCAA0.000.1050.0041.990.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1050.0046.410.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1016.6729.81-0.00-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.1033.3330.44-0.00-0.04
TroySB0.510.1042.8636.19-0.07-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1071.4356.260.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0987.5068.610.000.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0912.5030.39-0.00-0.04
MarquetteBE0.000.0975.0066.410.000.03
MarylandB100.000.0987.5059.330.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0987.5068.020.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0733.3346.01-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0750.0050.840.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0757.1453.990.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0775.0086.710.000.05
ClemsonACC0.000.0771.4354.860.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0742.8645.01-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.070.0017.61-0.00-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.07100.0078.850.000.04
WinthropBSth0.000.0750.0071.070.000.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.070.0013.46-0.00-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.070.0034.27-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.070.0023.69-0.00-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.0755.5646.970.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0728.5742.90-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0728.5731.44-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.000.0742.8646.48-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0733.3346.38-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0725.0034.40-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0025.23-0.00-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0775.0054.670.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0742.8653.19-0.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0733.3354.47-0.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.710.0657.1436.010.10-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0650.0071.020.000.03
MassachusettsA100.000.0671.4358.600.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0642.8646.14-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth1.020.0628.5734.28-0.44-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.710.0650.0058.040.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0620.0035.47-0.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0671.4366.700.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0640.0054.54-0.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0650.0043.560.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0642.8656.04-0.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0642.8642.62-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0666.6740.030.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0060.620.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0620.0046.79-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.450.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0039.53-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0637.5051.64-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.380.000.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0677.7871.970.000.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0640.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0620.0041.92-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0671.4368.050.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0675.0071.470.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0628.5723.78-0.00-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0650.0041.490.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0662.5043.800.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0642.8650.06-0.000.00
VCUA100.000.0675.0073.060.000.03
VMISC0.000.060.0016.78-0.00-0.04
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.81-0.00-0.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0666.6754.050.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0657.1444.890.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0675.0075.340.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4363.170.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0337.5047.37-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.070.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0387.5059.310.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0371.4355.820.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.170.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0344.4434.65-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0375.0066.100.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0328.5732.62-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0357.1442.530.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0375.0070.620.000.01
OregonP120.000.0375.0072.250.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0325.0022.93-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.27-0.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.210.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0322.2241.71-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.330.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0314.2926.74-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0328.5738.15-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.180.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8638.17-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.790.000.00
BaylorB120.000.03100.0076.590.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0357.1429.790.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0366.6766.340.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.440.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0342.8644.71-0.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0371.4370.210.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.920.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0048.030.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0325.0035.09-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.710.0383.3371.480.480.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0337.5033.74-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0041.990.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0385.7170.060.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.710.0325.0027.53-0.36-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.920.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0350.0046.240.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.990.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0375.0066.370.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.09-0.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0342.8647.11-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.21-0.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0362.5066.900.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0385.7162.220.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0062.620.000.01
ElonCAA0.510.0371.4359.470.220.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.510.0316.6730.34-0.34-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0387.5065.250.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0342.8658.58-0.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0362.5043.220.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0043.41-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0041.540.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0366.6761.330.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.510.0360.0058.590.100.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0311.1148.19-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0362.5058.450.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.510.0375.0051.040.260.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1458.940.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.56-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0077.380.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.33-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0375.0061.490.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.390.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0337.5047.91-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0350.0045.970.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.390.000.01
UtahP120.000.0375.0059.790.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.990.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0337.5035.09-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.400.0371.4351.460.170.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0320.0022.75-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6761.550.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.630.000.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0342.8651.95-0.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0312.5029.15-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0362.5050.710.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0355.5658.610.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0387.5081.960.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0066.170.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0371.4348.350.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0333.3327.06-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0340.0041.12-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.100.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.0387.5078.510.000.02